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Global Climate Change Pollution Lecture 15: Weather and Climate online The Iron Hypothesis Vast stretches of ocean are barren • Plenty of Nitrogen • Plenty of Phosphorus • Plenty of sun – What’s Missing? • IRON • Add iron to water, phytoplankton bloom will consume plenty of carbon The experiment was vigorously opposed • It was a testable hypothesis • ‘Geritol’ solution – Hazardous manipulation of the environment – Removes carbon from environment, trapping it in the ocean; this idea was embraced by corporations and some countries to meet Kyoto protocols – Might cause algal blooms and methane release Ironex I & II • Ironex I: 445 kg of iron dumped into ocean near the Galapos (64 km2 clear blue ocean) – Phytoplankton levels tripled • Ironex II spinkled iron into same ocean area several times over a period of three days. – Phytoplankton increased 30x – Produced same biomass as 30 redwood trees – Sequestered 2500 tons of carbon Thermohaline Circulation • A global conveyor belt in the ocean, by which water moves great distances horizontally and vertically • Driven by density changes caused by cooling water (which makes water denser) and evaporating (which makes water saltier and denser) Dense water in the ocean is... • Very cold • Very salty -- rain makes seawater lighter (fresher) Thermohaline Circulation • Warm water flows north in Gulf Stream, and experiences strong evaporation and cooling (makes water saltier and colder) • Dense water sinks near Greenland, flows south through Atlantic towards Antarctica • Water also sinks near Antarctica – There are just two sources of deep water! Thermohaline circulation • Deep water has lots of oxygen near Labrador Sea, and near Antarctica • Deep water has less oxygen in the Pacific -biological activity consumes oxygen as the water moves along Thermohaline circulation • Why no sinking in N. Pacific? – Pacific Ocean waters are fresher (less salty) than the Atlantic, therefore less dense! Harder to sink • The deep water slowly warms and rises (over years!) and then returns to the north Atlantic to sink again How to shut off Thermohaline? • Warm up North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean • Make a cheesy Jake Gyllenhaal movie • Put fresh water over the North Atlantic – Lots of Precipitation – Lots of Glacial melt Ozone • Beneficial molecule in the stratosphere • Absorbs harmful UV radiation • Responsible for stratospheric temperature inversion hv is energy • How is ozone formed? from the sun • • • • • O2 + hv -> O + O (1) O + O2 -> O3 (2) O3 + hv -> O2 + O (3) O + O2 -> O3 O + O3 -> O2 + O2 (4) Ozone eventually returns to ‘regular’ oxygen molecule Stratospheric Inversion • Helps put a ‘cap’ on top of tropospheric mixing • Unique to Earth Stratospheric Ozone Hole • First noticed in 1970s by surface based and space-based monitors, centered on South Pole – British Antarctic Survey – TOMS [TOTAL OZONE MAPPING SPECTROMETER] satellite -- measures ozone data from back-scattered UV sunlight (no data available during Antarctic winter) – Readings initially thought erroneous Big changes as time evolves! What caused Ozone destruction? • Catalytic reaction with Chloroflourocarbons -- especially in the presence of ice. • During Antarctic night, no sunlight to produce ozone • Over Antarctica, air is isolated during winter because of circular vortex centered over the South Pole -- rare to replenish with ozone-rich air from lower latitudes. That’s not the case in the northern Hemisphere – air from mid-latitudes periodically penetrates to the Poles. CFCs • Refrigerants • Were popular because they were thought to be chemically inert – CFCs slowly diffuse upwards and reach stratosphere – UV light in stratosphere breaks down CFCs – Chlorine atoms react with Ozone molecules Chlorine in the stratosphere • During polar night, chlorine atoms are liberated from HCl and ClONO2 on cold clouds. (Converted to more active forms: Cl2 – Heterogeneous reaction that occurs on a surface - and it happens rapidly! – Originally thought there were no surfaces in the stratosphere for this to occur on, but because it’s so cold, ice clouds will form What happens when the sun rises? • Cl2 split apart by sunlight to two Cl atoms • Then – ClO + ClO + M -> Cl2O2 + M M is a surface on which – Cl2O2 + hv -> Cl + ClO2 the reaction occurs – ClO2 + M -> Cl + O2 + M – then: 2 x (Cl + O3) -> 2 x (ClO + O2) – net: 2 O3 -> 3 O2 -- and the ClO can then react with more ozone Summary • • • • • The polar winter leads to the formation of the polar vortex which isolates the air within it. Cold temperatures form inside the vortex; cold enough for the formation of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs). As the vortex air is isolated, the cold temperatures and the PSCs persist. PSCs are ice clouds. Once the PSCs form, heterogeneous reactions (that means the reaction takes place on a surface) take place and convert the inactive chlorine and bromine reservoirs to more active forms of chlorine and bromine. No ozone loss occurs until sunlight returns to the air inside the polar vortex and allows the production of active chlorine and initiates the catalytic ozone destruction cycles. Ozone loss is rapid. The ozone hole currently covers a geographic region a little bigger than Antarctica and extends nearly 10km in altitude in the lower stratosphere. Ozone gradually decreases in the winter – there is no sunlight to create it – and then rapidly decreases in Spring. Montreal Protocols 1987 • Reduce/eliminate CFCs by 2010, replace with more chemically inert species, or more chemically reactive species so they rain out in troposphere – CFC accumulation is declining – concentrations are increasing but the rate of increase is less than it was – but it takes up to 100 years to remove Cl atoms from stratosphere – [CFCs are also a powerful greenhouse gas] Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere • Concentrations are rising because of fossil fuel use • Important greenhouse gas • Vital for plant growth Steady increase CO2 drops in Spring/Summer as plants grow CO2 rises in Fall/Winter as plants decay How do we know CO2 is from fuel? • Radiocarbon dating -- carbon in fossil fuels lacks radioactive carbon because it is so old - Roger Revelle – 1957: First publication – 1965: Presidential Advisory Panel – 1977: National Academy of Sciences Panel found 40% of anthropogenic carbon stayed in the atmosphere Where does the rest of CO2 go? • Ocean absorbs much of it, but more slowly than emitted on land -- takes about a decade to absorb the typical molecule (and it stays there for about 1000 years, which is how long it takes the ocean to overturn) Why is CO2 important • Top Line: CO2 concentration • Bottom Line: temperature inferred from deuterium concentration • Source: Vostok Ice core (to 150000 years BP) What controls a locale’s climate? • Short answer: the weather – – – – Latitude Altitude Position relative to water Prevailing wind direction (where does the place sit with respect to the General Circulation?) Note change in climate with height Koeppen Climate Classification East side of Continents • Humid, warm: Affected by circulation around subtropical High, which circulation moves warm, moist air poleward – – – – China eastern US eastern South America eastern Australia West side of Continents • Humid, cool: Affected by west-east motion of airmasses off upstream ocean … unless the motion is blocked by mountains – – – – Europe coastal Pacific Northwest coastal western South America southwestern Australia San Francisco, Wichita, and Norfolk are all at the same latitude, and about the same altitude. Do they enjoy the same climate? Cities far from the moderating effects of the ocean show greater temperature swings during the year! They have higher Continentality This is also true of Extreme Temperatures • Which states have record highs exceeding 120 F? – – – – – California (134) Arizona (127) Nevada (122) Kansas (121) North Dakota (121) • Which states have record highs below 110 F? – All border the ocean (except Vermont) – Only 109 F in FL! Which places are HOT • Low altitudes (Death Valley) • Away from ocean (North Dakota) • Sunny (downward motion in General Circulation) • Dry regions -- not a lot of precipitation, so no need for a lot of evaporation Which places are COLD • • • • • High altitudes Away from ocean (North Dakota) Clear (allow radiational cooling) Dry regions -- not a lot of heat content Far from equator (more energy input into Earth system at the Equator) Which places are DRY • Very cold regions (saturation vapor pressure will be very low) • Away from ocean • Leeward side of mountains • Downwelling branch of General Circulation (Hadley Cell) Which places are WET • In the ITCZ -- plenty of moisture, upward motion • Near the Polar Front • Windward side of mountains • Downwind of moisture sources (ocean) What are ways WI climate could be altered? • Build an east-west Rockies-type mountain range from North Carolina to Colorado – – – – No more moisture from Gulf of Mexico South winds: downslope/warming Cold air couldn’t sweep south North winds moving up into mountains would deposit any moisture they had What are ways WI climate could be altered? • Build an east-west Rockies-type mountain range along the US-Canada border – Still get moisture from Gulf of Mexico – Much warmer in winter -- cold airmasses would be unable to move over the mountains – North wind: downslope wind with warming What are ways WI climate could be altered? • Gulf of Mexico moves north, flooding TX/OK/KS – More moisture/warmth available year round with a south wind – More plentiful snows – Increased threat from hurricanes in summer What are ways WI climate could be altered? • Remove Rocky Mountains – Mild, moist air from Pacific could penetrate farther inland in winter – More difficult to generate cP air in winter because mountains would not block flow – Mountains help lock in flow patterns How is Earth affected by Mountains? • Higher altitudes are colder – Plentiful snows will increase the albedo – Temperature decreases with height • Mountains divert west-east flow – Air can ‘stagnate’ and become very cold – Warm/Wet on windward side – Cold/dry on leeward side • A flat Earth is a warmer Earth What kind of cloud? What kind of cloud? Air Pollution • Not all pollution is anthropogenic (i.e., man-made). Choking gases can also come from volcanoes and sea vents. Lightning can start a forest fire that puts immense amounts of pollutants into the atmosphere. • Air pollution effects are magnified when areas – have light winds (little or no horizontal mixing) – under inversions (little or no vertical mixing) What kind of feature has light winds and inversions? Smog • Term coined by London physician Harold Des Voeux in ~1911 -- a combination fog and smoke. The solution to pollution is dilution [That is, the short-term solution to an immediate problem] There are some very famous pollution episodes • Donora, Pennsylvania in October 1948 • London, England in December 1952 – Both events had similar meteorology: Stagnant high pressure prevented mixing so pollutants slowly accumulated in the boundary layer, leading to a killer noxious smog How did Fog kill? • Bronchitis/asthma suffers: suffocated as they wheeze to death • Congestive heart failure -- lack of oxygen makes heart work harder -- leads to cardiac arrest • ozone causes permanent lung damage -- other contaminants damage respiratory cells, cause lung inflammation • Week before: 2000 died. • Week of fog: 4000 died Fog as a Killer Death rates rose most for 45-64 year-olds; 2/3rd s of those who died were > 65. Other famous pollution problems: Houston, Texas Causes: Automobiles, Petrochemical plants Aggravations: Sea breeze/land breeze circulation Stagnant weather for much of summer -- no change in airmass Houston pollution from satellite Convert difference in downward looks and fore/aft looks to particulate density (optical depth) Denver’s “Brown Cloud” Sources: Automobiles, wood-burning stoves ; big improvements since early 1980s Periodic inversions trap air below mountain tops Los Angeles • Sited in a basin • Downstream of Pacific High (downward motion, and an inversion) • Difficult to ventilate -- pollutants get trapped in sea/land breeze circulation • Lots of cars! Mexico City 7500’ above sea level 24,000,000 people View From Space Shuttle Beijing New Delhi The persistent haze is a pungent mixture of wood, coal, and cow-dung smoke, with generous contributions from diesel auto, bus, and truck exhaust, and from the ubiquitous gas/oil-burning scooters and rickshaws Why do inversions promote pollution? Temperature inversion Pollution distribution in vertical controlled by the stability Difficult for particles to move in the vertical Particles easily move in the vertical Particles easily move to the surface, but don’t move aloft Pollution Mitigation • Make smoke stacks very tall! – Stack output into inversion layer, above the unstable boundary layer • Site smokestack in a region where drainage winds will remove pollution -- or where you’re far from population – Put your powerplants somewhere besides downtown! Other effects of pollution • Adds cloud condensation nuclei to air – Fox River Valley cloudiness from extra CCN from paper plants (more fog?) -- ditto Tyrone PA in the 1960s • Heat source at smokestack, so cumulus cloud at the top of smoke plume • If you live on a lake, pollutants can get trapped in Lake Breeze and “never” ventilate. Main pollution sources • Mercury and sulfur: from coal-burning power plants • Smoke from forest fires can cause pollution over very large areas • Carbon Monoxide, Nitrous Oxides: from vehicles Alaska had many fires in 2004 Visible from space In the infrared channels too! Dark Pixels are very warm (fire) Acid Rain Acid Rain is mostly caused by SO2 and NOx – 2/3 of SO2 from coal-fired power plants – 1/4 of NOx from coal-fired power plants – “Pure” rainwater has pH of 5.5 • pure water: pH of 7 • Acid rain: pH of 4.3 • pH down to 2.5 observed (Mt Tsukuba, 1984) Effects of Acid Rain • Increased mortality in aquatic species…chart at right shows that some are more tolerant of acid than others • Effects tempered by local geography, especially limestone Effects of Acid Rain • Increased nitrogen deposition in water leads to algal blooms • Damages leaves, and weakens trees • Weakens paint on cars • Erodes marble in buildings Pollution Modeling • Use numerical models to tell where the pollutants from a stack will end up • Employs many meteorologists! • “Fundamentals of Stack Gas Dispersion” – – – – – buoyant smoke plume rise Gaussian modeling theory Local meteorological observations very realistic topography interaction between microscale and mesoscale Changing the Climate • Climate naturally changes due to changes in solar forcing (Milankovitch Cycles). • Feedbacks can amplify any change Other trace gases impact the climate • Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) – – – – Gas produced by phytoplankton Acts as a cloud condensation nucleus Enhanced production as temperature increases More CCN with warmer temperatures, more clouds and albedo increases, Earth temperature drops – Puts the brakes on warming Snow Affects the climate! Snow-Albedo feedbacks Snow Affects the climate! Snow-Albedo feedbacks View from GOES West Snow-Albedo feedbacks View from GOES West Snow-Albedo feedbacks Did this affect the temperature? Temperatures 2.5” snow in MKE Degrees (F) 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Milwaukee High 41 39 38 37 36 31 Milwaukee Low 32 29 25 24 26 21 Madison High 41 40 33 40 40 34 Madison Low 29 22 19 26 25 18 Milwaukee High Day (28Nov-3 Dec) Milwaukee Low Madison High Madison Low Same Thing Every Winter • Clear, calm night, • Clear, calm night, temperature falls to the temperature falls to dewpoint below the dewpoint How does snow cool? [Remember these?] • Incoming solar radiation reflected back to space • Insulate bottom of atmosphere from warm underlying surface • Cool down more rapidly at night: snow is a great emitter! – Also, fresh snowcover has a HUGE surface area – so a LOT of energy can leave Why is snow darker over a city? • Note that Chicago is not as white • Urban Heat Island -maybe less snow fell • City is a very dirty place -- snow rapidly gets sooty • Snow Removal • Albedo effects reduced over the city • More shadows? Today’s Topic: Global Warming Is the Earth getting warmer? YES! (or maybe) How to tell what temperature was? • Examine sediments and soil deposits – ‘Heavy’ water more common when glaciation preferentially removes ‘light’ water from the ocean/lakes. • Pollen in ice cores, sediments • Deuterium in ice cores – ‘Heavy’ hydrogen more common when it’s cold • Tree Rings • Need to know what T was if you’re trying to figure out how it’s changing Today: 385 ppmv Extract dissolved CO2 from ice cores, compare to heavy water Note on the previous slide • Temperature increases, then CO2 increases – Likely cause: warmed ocean releases CO2 • CO2 has increased before temperature in the past 200 years – this behavior is different than in the past • The historical record shows that temperature increases, then the CO2 increases, then the temperature drops What does past T record tell us? • Earth is now warmer than it’s been -- we’re emerging from a Glacial period • Warming started about 18K years ago • Period of cooling between 14K and 10K years ago, then renewed warming Younger-Dryas Younger-Dryas • Melting Glacier flooded North Atlantic, capping the ocean with fresh water, shutting off the Thermohaline circulation Feedbacks can amplify change • Remove snow: albedo drops, Earth warms • Add vapor, Greenhouse forcing increases, warms Earth so more water evaporates … • Plants die from drought, air is drier because of reduced evapotranspiration Feedback can damp change • Add vapor, more clouds will form, shading Earth and causing cooling • Warm the Earth, and it emits more energy, causing cooling (and the amount emitted varies as T4) From Last time: Mountains • Cause preferred flow regimes • Block mild air from penetrating to center of Continents…cP air can form unimpeded • Also, if land at poles, more likely to have glaciers there, which increases the Earth’s albedo Politics of Global Warming • Some entities have a vested interest in the status quo -- government-mandated restrictions related to Global Warming reduce profitability • Politicization of science does little to advance true understanding Model Studies of Global Warming • Most studies suggest that warming is concentrated at the Poles • Can model, if run backwards, ‘predict’ the past climate? (Usually, no; is that a reason to ignore model results?) Climate Change is natural The little hiccup in the line is the Younger-Dryas This time series suggests the Earth should be cooling! What causes the regular pulses in temperature? • Milankovitch forcing • Changes in orbital parameters -- three different effects – Change in time of perihelion/aphelion (‘Precession of the Equinox’) – Change in ellipticity of orbit – Change in Inclination (‘Obliquity’) Precession of the Equinox • Perihelion occurs about 5 January. – Changes with time -- regresses 1 day every 58 years. – Period is 21000 years • In 21000 years, perihelion will be 5 January • in 10500 year, perihelion will be 5 July • Snowier in northern Hemisphere when it’s warmer in winter, cooler in summer -- more likely that snow will persist through the summer (and become a glacier) – More snow reduces Earth’s temperature through albedo affect – Effects in Northern Hemisphere dominate because there’s more land in the northern Hemisphere Changes in ellipticity • Varies from nearly circular to 3x as elliptic as now with a period of 100,000 years • Eccentricity varies between 0 and 0.05 (right now: 0.018) • Modulates the effects of precession of the equinox -- greater effects with very elliptic orbit when perihelion is during NH winter – Much cooler in NH summer -- support Glaciation because winter snows won’t melt Obliquity • Axis tilt now is about 23.5 degrees -- in the middle of the range of tilts. • Tilt varies with a period of 41,000 years between 22 and 24.5 degrees • Larger tilt favors glaciation -- if NH winters are warm – Note that even warm winters are cold enough for snow….you want warmth because that means more moisture is available, and because summers are cooler so glaciers won’t melt What is not ‘natural’ ? (to the extent that you consider anthropogenic changes unnatural, although man is a part of the ecosystem!) • Large increase in CO2 to atmosphere due to burning of fossil fuels – Increases ‘greenhouse effect’ [warming] – CO2 values now very high (not as high as when dinosaurs roamed) • Lots of particulate matter from burning fossil fuels – Increases shading of Earth [cooling] One Aspect of more CO2 • Increased plant growth • When there’s more CO2 in the atmosphere, all plants grow more vigorously – Carbon dioxide + water yields sugars and oxygen (this is how plants remove CO2 from the atmosphere -- they convert it to sugar). • Plants use carbon dioxide in different ways. Response to enhanced CO2 varies by species -some ‘good’ plants grow faster, some weeds grow faster What are some effects of warming? • Longer summers – Would the number of cold frontal passages decrease? That will increase the length of pollution events over the US – Longer growing season for some plants – Some plants require a specific amount of cool weather • Warmer oceans mean more hurricanes? – Reality: Only the Atlantic Basin shows hurricane activity trending upwards in the past 23 years Does Global Warming = Warming everywhere on the Globe? • NO! – Studies show strongest warming at Poles – Relatively less warming at Equator – Local effects (shut down of Thermohaline circulation, for example) could cause dramatic cooling in one location even though the Globe as a whole warms Warming = Flooding • Glacier meltwater increases ocean levels – 6.5 m if Greenland ice cap melts – 8 m and 65 m if west Antarctic and east Antarctic ice caps melt – Prediction of 5 to 15-inch rise by 2100 – 1-meter rise: Half of Bangladesh is underwater • Thermal expansion of sea water as it warms raises ocean levels [and warmer water cannot hold as much CO2 in solution] • Stronger hurricanes over warmer waters have higher storm surges. Glaciers are sensitive to temperature and precipitation • Most Glaciers retreated in 1900s • 80% of the glaciers on Kilimanjaro have melted • Most glaciers in Glacier National Park have retreated • Also examples in the Andes and Antarctica • Is this from warmth or dryness? Not known for sure Blue: Retreating Glaciers Red: Advancing Glaciers Drake Peninsula, Antarctica Example From Alaska From The Alps Glacier National Park 1993 Mt. Kilimanjaro 2000 What happens when Glaciers melt? • Albedo drops • Earth warms up • Glaciers melt some more • Sea levels rise • Are glaciers melting or evaporating? Collapse of Larsen Ice shelf in Antarctica, summer 2002 Lake Ice Seasons are shorter • Canada, Europe, USA, Japan : Lake Ice records are centuries long – Ice appears 8.7 days later than 150 years ago – Ice melts 9.8 days earlier than 150 years ago Some Climate Features confound the record in the short term Great Lake Ice Coverage Other Lakes: Other Lakes: Other Lakes: Sea Ice over Arctic Ocean • Decreasing, consistent with predictions – Each year shows more of a decrease • Decreases albedo, which causes further warming/melting • Open Arctic Ocean: source of plenty of moisture (to yield heavy snows and glaciation?) • Model studies stress the importance of wind in ice formation/melting over the Arctic, yet how the wind changes with warming is not well understood Where will most change occur • From Computer Simulations: – AT THE POLES – Snow-albedo feedbacks? How is change manifest? Temperature Anomalies at the Pole Arctic is getting cloudier with time Shorter time when roads on ice are open Permafrost is warming! Siberian Permafrost is warming, too [again!] New species (in this case, birds) are colonizing the Arctic, Moving north from warmer latitudes Other species, [Black Guillemots] are declining Problems for migratory birds • When birds leave might be tuned to the Sun (amount of daylight) • When prey emerges might be tuned to temperature – Time of departure for birds stays constant – Time when food is available gets earlier and earlier Bering Sea is warming up! Number of days with ice after 15 March 56-58 N/ 163-165 W Shrimp catch way up…cod catch way down! Sea Ice in Arctic is decreasing Here is 2005 Glaciers are in retreat Glacier Volumes in NH are dropping Eurasian Arctic Russian Arctic Total N. American Arctic For More Information: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect The big question • Is the increase linear, or part of an oscillation of unknown cause? • Hard to tell if you’re in a linear increase or wave as it’s occurring