Download Demographic trends - Ministero della Difesa

How the world is changing.
Demographic, geopolitical and
economic trends
Prof. Antonio Golini
Emeritus, Sapienza University of Rome
Acting President of ISTAT, National Statical Institute
The analyses carried out in this
presentation are the result of
reflections made in the course of my
life as a scholar and do not necessarily
involve the positions of the National
Institute of Statistics.
Many thanks to Dr Elena Gramiccia
and Dr Tommaso Rondinella for their
valuable contribution in preparing this
lecture.
2
Demographic trends
Demographic trends
Total population by Region:
1950-2050 (billions)
Continent
2010
2050
∆ 2050-10
∆%2050-10
Africa
1033
1998
965
93,5
898
1128
230
25,6
4167
5231
1065
25,6
Europe
733
691
-42
-5,7
Oceania
36
51
16
43,3
WORLD
6909
9150
2241
32,4
Americas
Total population by Continent
2010-2050
(millions and differences)
Asia
Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision
4
Demographic trends
Total population by Regions, 1950-2050 (%):
(a) More developed countries- MDRs,
(b) Intermediate developed countries- IDCs,
(c) Less developed countries- LDCs
Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision
5
Demographic trends
Population ,
1950 - 2050 (millions)
More developed countries
Intermediate developed countries
Less developed countries.
Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision
Note: Estimate 1950-2010. Projection “Average fertility” 2015-2050
6
Demographic trends around the Mediterranean Sea
Population
1950 - 2050
(millions)
Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision
Note: Estimate 1950-2010. Projection “Average fertility” 2015-2050
7
Demographic trends in Italy
A country of elderly people:
in 2050, over sixty years old people will represent one-third of the population
(now they are one in five people), and the number of over eighty years old
people will increase from the current 5.8% to 13.6%.
Population by age
1950 - 2050
(billion)
Source: Istat- Demo
8
Demographic equilibriums: factor of peace (?)
The population of Israel (8.2 million), with 75 percent of the population being
Jewish Israelis is growing at about 1.8 percent.
The population of State of Palestine (4.4 million + more than 1.5 million
refugees living in camps and 4 million outside) is growing 2.4 percent a year.
While the Jewish proportion in Israel will decline slightly over the next two
decades, it will continue to be the dominant majority of the Israeli
population, 73 percent in 2035. This is not the case, however, when one
considers the entire future population residing in the former British
Palestine. Demographic projections indicate that less than half of the future
population residing there would be Jewish, 48 percent in 2025 and 46
percent by 2035 (53% with only West Bank).
Source: Joseph Chamie , Israeli-Palestinian Population Growth and Its Impact on Peace, 2/2/2014 WORLDVIEWS
*if Palestinians in refugee camps included
Economic trends: World economic
center of gravity is shifting away
Economic trends
World economic center of gravity is shifting towards the emerging
countries.
Two-thirds of global growth are generated in emerging economies
e.g. the Asiatic countries.
World trade
(monthly
index
2000=100)
Source: CPB World Trade Monitor
11
Economic trends
Distribution of weights on world economy of emerging and advanced
countries, as defined nowadays
Share of world GDP in emerging and advanced countries, 1950-2030
Source: elaboration on data Angus Maddison and FMI
12
Economic trends
In peoples’ relationships we are moving back to ancient times.
1950 situation does not seem to be reproducible, even if some
western countries may be willing to.
Distribution of weights on world economy of emerging and advanced
countries, as defined nowadays
Share of world GDP in emerging and advanced countries, 1950-2030
Source: elaboration on data Angus Maddison and FMI
13
Economic trends
Two-thirds of middle class consumers will be in Asia
Today there are 1.8 billion people in the global middle class,
concentrated in North America (338 million), Europe (664 million) and
Asia (525 million). The US has some 230 million, the EU 450 million
middle class consumers.
Today Asia accounts for less than one-quarter. By 2020, that share is
expected to double. By 2050 two-thirds of middle class consumers
will be in Asia.
Shares of Global Middle
Class Consumption,
2000-2050
Middle class consumers
spend between 10 and
100 $PPP per day.
Source: Kharas, 2010. Working paper, OECD Development Centre.
Productions goes where work is cheaper and more available
A growing share of Foreign Direct Investments move towards developing
economies.
Inbound Foreign
Direct
Investments
(annual data,
stock, millions of
dollars)
Source: UNCTAD
15
Economic trends in Italy
The weight that Italy holds in the world is progressively diminishing, in the
quantity of goods and services both produced and exported, as well as in the
population.
Weight of Italy:
share of world
GDP, Export and
Population
1960 – 2012
(percentages)
Source: elaboration on World Bank– World Development Indicators – and UNCTAD data
16
Productions goes where work is cheaper and more available
Nationally controlled enterprises in foreign countries by economic activity – years 2007 and 2010
(percentage share with respect to the whole enterprises resident in Italy)
Foreign
Direct
Investments.
Italy,
inbound and
outbound
(stock –
millions of
dollars)
Source: Istat
17
Labour supply perspectives
The huge low cost labour supply in less and intermediate development countries, in
particular the BRICS and Sub-Saharian African countries, together with the reduced or
negative supply in western countries, in particular the European ones, makes
production increasingly move where work is cheaper and more available.
Growth forecasts of working age population and number of jobs needed to absorb it – Years 20102050
∆
19702010
∆
20102050
∆%
19702010
∆%
20102050
392
725
204,5
124,1
North
America
92
40
64,3
17,2
Latin
America
231
79
150,1
20,5
1.610
595
135,8
21,3
Europe
81
-103
19,2
-20,6
Oceania
10
7
79,0
29,7
WORLD
2.416
1342
114,6
29,7
Regions
Africa
Asia
Source: A. Golini, Seminario Ambrosetti, Milano 2011
18
Demographic trends: Migrations
The majority of migrants are in the North of the world (128 million), but come
from the South (147 million) .
While needed, migration can not and will not, as has happened from 800 to 900,
resolve miseries of the world.
Migrant population by Region of origin and destination – Year 2010
North
53,4
North
13,3
74,3
South
73,2
South
Source: elaboration on UN Population division. Trends in International Migrant Stock data
19
Demographic trends: Migrations
… it is worth noticing that movements take place mostly within the
same Regions.
Migrant population by Region of origin and destination, 2010 (millions)
Source: elaboration on UN Population division. Trends in International Migrant Stock data
20
Employment and Migration
Migrations are needed also in downturns because in developed countries
they help rebalance not only quantitative labour market disequilibria, but
also the qualitative ones. In developing countries it is not the same.
Foreigners employed people (% on total employment)
Source: Eurostat
21
Foreign employment in Italy
In the Italian Labour Market, foreigner employed people are less than 2 per
cent in the Public Administration, Finance and Insurance, Education while are
the 16.5% in the «Hotel and Restaurant» sector, the 18.9% in the
construction, and the 76.8% in the domestic and care Service sector (it was
the 67,3% in 2008).
Foreign employed
people by economic
sector in Italy
(percentage)
Source: Istat
Employment and Unemployment
In the advanced countries, millions of jobs have been burned by the
financial crisis, and have not been made up.
And there is a very strong competition trying to do this.
Employment rate
(15-64 years old)
in advanced
countries before
and after the
financial crisis
(%)
23
Product goes everywhere at cheaper and cheaper costs
The amazing ability to carry everything everywhere cheaply and fast is largely
based on a «banal» but extraordinary invention such as the container
Containers moved in the world (millions of TEU)
World containers’ traffic
in 2011 has reached nearly
600 million TEU
(TEU: 20 foot equivalent units)
And has more than doubled in
the last decade
In 1956 loading a ship in the USA cost 5,86 dollar a ton and needed up to 6 days. Today
it costs 16 cents a ton (97% less than in 1956) and needs 6-8 hours ( about 95% less).
Source: World Bank; Port of Genoa; Levinson M., “The Box”, 2007.
24
Technology which substitutes humans
The extraordinary growth in the use of robots, not only in the industrial sector but
also in services (i.e. trains and airplanes without pilot) including those dedicated to
people (i.e.: humanoid robots ensuring assistance to the elderly), is strongly reducing
labour demand
The great technological
change is associated to a
great cultural change.
From childless to
childfree:
robot vs. children
25
Technology which substitutes humans
The huge impact of Information technology has destroyed
in some industrial sectors much more jobs than it created
(examples: photography and telephony)
It is very difficult to imagine
what the impact on labour
market of a «home-made
industrial production» through
revolutionary tools such as the
3D printer will be.
Some company in Italy is
almost ready to build houses,
using gigantic 3D printer.
Dreambox, Berkley University 3D printer
26
The role of manufacturing in the economy
Manufacturing employment by group in selected
advanced economies, 1995–2007 Index: 1995 = 100
Manufacturing employment in
advanced economies has
declined across all groups but
has fallen most in the labourintensive tradables group.
When economies become wealthier and
reach middle-income status,
manufacturing’s share of GDP peaks (at
about 20 to 35 percent of GDP).
Beyond that point, consumption shifts
toward services, hiring in services
outpaces job creation in manufacturing,
and manufacturing’s share of GDP begins
to fall along an inverted U curve.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012
Manufacturing employment - % of total employment
GDP per capita
27
Disruptive technologies
Applications for knowledge work automation may have an economic
impact between 5.200 and 6.700 billion$ by 2025
Mobile internet
Automation of
knowledge work
The Internet of
Things
Cloud
technology
Advanced
robotics
Autonomous and
near-autonomous
vehicles
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2013
Next-generation
genomics
Energy storage
3D printing
Advanced
materials
Advanced oil and
gas exploration
and recovery
Renewable energy
28
Social trends: education,
urbanization and growth of
poorer countries
Social Macro-trends: education
Between 2000 and 2011, the number of children that do not
participate to Primary education has halved: from 102 million to 57
million.
However, the process has slowed down and it will be difficult to
reach the UN Millennium Development Goals on universal primary
education by 2015.
Net Index of school
enrollment: enrolled to
primary and middle school
(for 100 children of the
same age)
Source: Processing of data from UN
30
Social Macro-trends: education
Average nr. of years of study on adult population
Source: Long-term Growth Scenarios, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 1000
31
Social Macro-trends: female condition
Enrolled to primary education (female / male)
WORLD
High Income
Low income
Middle Income
Italy
Source: Processing of data from UN
32
Social Macro-trends: fertility
Fertility Rate and female achievement of primary education –
Countries with High, Medium and Low Level Income, Years 1970-2011
Source: Processing of data from World Bank – World Development Indicators
33
Social Macrotrends: female empowerment
The world average of the Gender Inequality Index is 0.463, which is equivalent to a
loss of equity of 46.3%.
Regional averages vary between 28% in Europe and Central Asia and nearly 58% in
Sub-Saharian Africa, 56.8% in Southern Asia and 55.5% in Arabic States.
At national level the index varies between 4.5% in Netherlands and 74.7% in Yemen.
Italy is at the 25° place with a value of 10%.
Gender Inequality
Index per levels of
human
development
Very High
High
Medium
Low
The “Gender Inequality Index” can be interpreted as a percentage loss in human development due to
the underdevelopment (mortality at birth, fecundity of teenager achievement of upper school title).
Source: Elaboration on UN data
34
Urbanization
Urban and rural population - global and by region 1950-2050 (billion)
Source: UN Population Division – World urbanization prospects: 2011 revision
35
Urbanization in Italy
Urban and rural population in Italy - 1950-2050 (million)
Source: UN Population Division – World urbanization prospects: 2011 revision
The problem of governance at
global, regional and local level
and the problem to manage the
different speeds
Bargaining power: nations versus regional coalitions
All these processes impact on demographics, economic, social and
therefore political relationships.
As a consequence of these massive change we are in front of huge and
nearly paralyzing problems of governance.
The UN multilateral model is in huge crisis, both at General Assembly
level and at Security Council level due to its dated structure.
The following needs to be considered
It has to bear in mind that:
- at global level, we are moving towards a regionalization that
needs to be institutionalized in international context through
new forms of representation
- At local level in our area, the Mediterranean Union (the Union
of the 47 euro - Mediterranean) would be important even if, in
the short terms, the implementation is stuck
38
Towards a new global governance
Globalization is making relevant in the international playground only countries or
cluster of countries with the following 3 characteristics
Political sovereignty
Australia
Canada
Regional Size
USA
China
India
Russia
[Brazil]
Huge economic and
demographic size
EU
Mercosur
Asean
Source: A. Golini, Tendenze demografiche e implicazioni socio-economiche,
18.01.07, USA
39
Learning to tell the time: seconds, minutes and hours
The world is changing deeply and all its components (demographic, economic, social,
technological and urban) and in the relationship among states and macro-regions.
We are in front of an historical change – that seems to remind the glaciation or historical
revolutions such as the industrial or the agriculture revolution – also due to the climate
changes that with high degree of probability will have devastating effect.
There is a significant differences versus the past: in a global ranking the world
population shows very broad gradients as it never occurred in human history. Gradients
which can now be known and perceived by individuals and peoples.
Flexibility and adaptability will become critical: change will be the driving force of
human survival on earth, but.
«…in a context of continuous innovation, politics is always late in regulating social
implications» (Cubeddu, Il tempo della politica e dei diritti, 2013)
The problem is how to synchronize the speed of technological change, of cultural
change, of economic change, of demographic change, of environmental change with
policy capability to manage all these differentials, both at regional level and global level.
40