Download Creating Probability Models for Simple Events

Grade 7 Mathematics, Quarter 3, Unit 3.1
Creating Probability Models for Simple Events
Overview
Number of instructional days:
10
(1 day = 45–60 minutes)
Content to be learned
Mathematical practices to be integrated

Understand that the probability of a chance
event is a number between 0 and 1.
Make sense of problems and persevere in solving
them.

Approximate the probability of a chance event
by collecting data produced by a simple event.

Make predictions about data on events of
chance.

Observe the relative frequency of an event.


Predict the relative frequency given the
probability.
Use models to conceptualize and solve a
problem.

Explain why discrepancies may or may not
occur between theoretical (models) and
empirical (observed) frequencies.

Develop a uniform probability model.

Develop a non-uniform probability model.

Explain discrepancies between observed
frequencies and probability from a model.
Model with mathematics.

Make approximations about the probability of
a chance event by collecting data.

Interpret probability as a number between 0
and 1 to justify the reasonableness of their
results.
Use appropriate tools strategically.

Create uniform probability models to solve
problems.

Create non-uniform probability models to
solve problems.
Essential questions

Between what numbers does the probability of
an event occur?

What is an example of a uniform probability
model for a simple event?

How do you approximate the probability of a
chance event?

What is an example of a non-uniform
probability model for a simple event?

How do you find the relative frequency of an
event?


How can you predict the relative frequency of
an event?
What causes discrepancies to sometimes occur
between observed frequencies and probability
models?
Hobbs Municipal Schools with process support from The Charles A. Dana Center at the University of Texas at Austin
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Grade 7 Mathematics, Quarter 3, Unit 3.1
Creating Probability Models for Simple Events (10 days)
Written Curriculum
Common Core State Standards for Mathematical Content
Statistics and Probability
7.SP
Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability models.
7.SP.5
Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1
that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate
greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability
around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability
near 1 indicates a likely event.
7.SP.6
Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict
the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when
rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly
200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
7.SP.7
Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good,
explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
a.
Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all
outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if
a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be
selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
b.
Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing
frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the
approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed
paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny
appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?
Hobbs Municipal Schools with process support from The Charles A. Dana Center at the University of Texas at Austin
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Grade 7 Mathematics, Quarter 3, Unit 3.1
Creating Probability Models for Simple Events (10 days)
Common Core State Standards for Mathematical Practice
1
Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.
Mathematically proficient students start by explaining to themselves the meaning of a problem and
looking for entry points to its solution. They analyze givens, constraints, relationships, and goals. They
make conjectures about the form and meaning of the solution and plan a solution pathway rather than
simply jumping into a solution attempt. They consider analogous problems, and try special cases and
simpler forms of the original problem in order to gain insight into its solution. They monitor and evaluate
their progress and change course if necessary. Older students might, depending on the context of the
problem, transform algebraic expressions or change the viewing window on their graphing calculator to
get the information they need. Mathematically proficient students can explain correspondences between
equations, verbal descriptions, tables, and graphs or draw diagrams of important features and
relationships, graph data, and search for regularity or trends. Younger students might rely on using
concrete objects or pictures to help conceptualize and solve a problem. Mathematically proficient students
check their answers to problems using a different method, and they continually ask themselves, “Does
this make sense?” They can understand the approaches of others to solving complex problems and
identify correspondences between different approaches.
4
Model with mathematics.
Mathematically proficient students can apply the mathematics they know to solve problems arising in
everyday life, society, and the workplace. In early grades, this might be as simple as writing an addition
equation to describe a situation. In middle grades, a student might apply proportional reasoning to plan a
school event or analyze a problem in the community. By high school, a student might use geometry to
solve a design problem or use a function to describe how one quantity of interest depends on another.
Mathematically proficient students who can apply what they know are comfortable making assumptions
and approximations to simplify a complicated situation, realizing that these may need revision later. They
are able to identify important quantities in a practical situation and map their relationships using such
tools as diagrams, two-way tables, graphs, flowcharts and formulas. They can analyze those relationships
mathematically to draw conclusions. They routinely interpret their mathematical results in the context of
the situation and reflect on whether the results make sense, possibly improving the model if it has not
served its purpose.
5
Use appropriate tools strategically.
Mathematically proficient students consider the available tools when solving a mathematical problem.
These tools might include pencil and paper, concrete models, a ruler, a protractor, a calculator, a
spreadsheet, a computer algebra system, a statistical package, or dynamic geometry software. Proficient
students are sufficiently familiar with tools appropriate for their grade or course to make sound decisions
about when each of these tools might be helpful, recognizing both the insight to be gained and their
limitations. For example, mathematically proficient high school students analyze graphs of functions and
solutions generated using a graphing calculator. They detect possible errors by strategically using
estimation and other mathematical knowledge. When making mathematical models, they know that
technology can enable them to visualize the results of varying assumptions, explore consequences, and
compare predictions with data. Mathematically proficient students at various grade levels are able to
identify relevant external mathematical resources, such as digital content located on a website, and use
them to pose or solve problems. They are able to use technological tools to explore and deepen their
understanding of concepts.
Hobbs Municipal Schools with process support from The Charles A. Dana Center at the University of Texas at Austin
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Grade 7 Mathematics, Quarter 3, Unit 3.1
Creating Probability Models for Simple Events (10 days)
Clarifying the Standards
Prior Learning
In earlier grades, students developed knowledge and experience with data. They viewed statistical
reasoning as a four step process that included: formulating questions that could be answered using data,
designing and using a plan to collect relevant data, analyzing data with appropriate methods, interpreting
results and drawing valid conclusions from the data that related to questions posed. They moved from
contextual statistical investigations to abstract then back to contextual.
Current Learning
In grade 7, students move from concentrating on analysis of data to production of data, understanding that
good answers from statistical questions depend upon a good plan for collecting data relevant to the
questions of interest. Students are creating probability models and finding the probability for simple
events. Students are developing an understanding that the probability for a chance event is a number
between 0 and 1 and assigning equal probability to all outcomes. Students are collecting data and
observing its long-run relative frequency and predicting the approximate relative frequency, which may or
may not be uniform.
Future Learning
In grade 8, students will extend their understanding of statistics with univariate data to include bivariate
data. They will summarize bivariate categorical data using two-way tables of counts and/or proportions,
and examine these for patterns of association.
Additional Findings
According to the PARCC Progressions 6–8 Statistics and Probability, relative frequency and probability
connect two ways. Students who know the structure of the “generating mechanism, can anticipate the
relative frequencies of a series of random selections with replacement.” If the structure is unknown the
student can approximate it by making a series of random selections and recording findings. “This simple
idea, obvious to the experienced, is essential and not obvious at all to the novice.” (p. 7)
In Principles and Standards for School Mathematics it states that students should learn about probability
by measuring the likelihood of events. “Through exploration they should come to realize that a
probability of zero is impossible and a certain event is one” (p. 181)
Hobbs Municipal Schools with process support from The Charles A. Dana Center at the University of Texas at Austin
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