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Name ________________________ Date ________Chapter 5 Syllabus - AP Statistics - B Probability: What Are The Chances? Chapter Objective:Students will understand randomness; the concepts and rules of probabilities; how to use simulation to estimate probabilities; probability models and their use to describe chance behavior; and conditional probabilities and independence. Day 1 11/2 TOPICS: ▪The Idea of Probability ▪Randomness and Myths about Randomness ▪Simulation 5.1 – Randomness, Probability, and Simulation I. Concepts and Skills to Master: ►Interpret probability as a long-run relative frequency in context►Use simulation to model chance behavior II. Assignments A. Warm Up – Anscombe’s Data & M& M Activities due today: last call B. Probability Recap & Discussion C. Quiz 5.1 A & 5.1 Check for Understanding Concepts 1 – 2 handout III. Homework A. Reading Guide 5.1 & 5.2 B. Textbook: Pages 281-293 #1, #5 -13 (odd) #14, #18, #19, #23, #25 Day 2 11/5 Nov. 15th TOPICS: ▪Probability Models ▪Basic Rules of Probability ▪Two Way Tables and Probability ▪Venn Diagrams and Probability ▪Complement Day 3 11/9 TOPICS: ▪Conditional Probability ▪Independent Events (Independence) ▪Tree Diagram ▪Multiplication Rule 5.2 Probability Rules I. Concepts and Skills to Master:►Describe a probability model for a chance process ►Use basic probability rules, including the complement rule and the addition rule for mutually exclusive events►Use a Venn diagram to model a chance process involving two events. ►Use the general addition rule to calculate the probability of A union B. II. Assignments A. Warm Up – Review 5.1 LSRL B. Homework Q & A C. 5.1 and 5.2 Notes & Practice III. Homework A. Textbook: Pages 299- 308; #27, 29, 31-36 (all), #43 – 55 (odd) B. Reading Guide 5.3 5.3 – Conditional Probability and Independence I. Concepts and Skills to Master: ►Use a tree diagram to describe chance behavior when appropriate ►Use the general multiplication rule to solve probability questions ►Determine whether two events are independent ►Find the probability that an event occurs using a two-way table ►Use the multiplication rule for independent events to compute probabilities ►Compute conditional probabilities II. Assignments A. Warm Up – Review 5.1 & 5.2 B. Homework Q & A C. Guided Notes & Guided Practice D. Quiz handout 5.2 B & Quiz 5.3 C Reading Guide 5.1 & 5.2 III. Homework A. Chapter 5 Review (Multiple Choice &Frappy) B. Textbook: Pages 312 – 328 #57-60 (all); 63-69 (odd); 77, 79, 83-99; skip 89 T Quiz Test Date for Chapter 5 Quiz: TBA _____________________ Date for TEST (Chapters 1 – 6) ____________________ Vocabulary: Complement, Conditional probability, Conditional probability formula, Disjoint, Event, General addition rule for two events General multiplication rule, Independent events (independence), Intersection, Mutually exclusive, Outcome, Probability, Probability model, Sample space, Simulation, Tree diagram, Union, Venn diagram Essential Questions: 1. What is a random phenomenon, when do we need to consider it and how can we investigate it using probability and simulation? 2. How is the likelihood of a random event occurring related to the long-term frequency of occurrence of the event? 3. What is the phenomenon? sample space of a random 4. For a finite number of outcomes, how do we use the multiplication principle to determine the number of outcomes? 5. How do we construct Tree diagrams, Venn diagrams and Two-way tables to organize visually the use of the multiplication and addition rules to determine the probabilities of events? 6. For continuous variables, how do we use geometric areas to find probabilities (areas under density curves) of events (intervals on the horizontal axis) and for determine the likelihood of an event? 7. For continuous variables, what is the probability of a precise value occurring? 8. How do we determine if a given probability distribution is valid? 9. How can we perform a simulation by use of a random number table, a calculator or software to investigate the likelihood of an outcome occurring? 10. What is a joint probability? How do we use its properties to solve problems? 11. What are the probability rules and how do we use them to determine if two events are disjoint and/or complementary, find the probabilities of unions and intersections, and find the joint probability of two events? 12. What is a conditional probability, how do we find it, and how do we use it to determine potential causes of events? 13. What is the property of Independence, and how is it related to Conditional Probabilities? 14. Are mutually exclusive events independent? Why or why not?