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Chapter 5: Probability - 2 tests Outline AP Statistics Mrs. Harrison Essential Questions: 1. What is probability? 2. Do “independent” and “disjoint” mean the same thing? 3. How can probability rules be used to determine the probability of an outcome? 4. How can simulation be useful? Knowledge: You should be able to define, illustrate, or calculate the following: □ □ □ □ Skills: □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ □ Event □ Mutually Exclusive/Disjoint □ Complementary Events Law of Large Numbers Probability Sample space, S Probability Model □ □ □ □ Independent events Union/Intersection Conditional Simulation You should be able to… Interpret probability as a long-run relative frequency. Describe a probability model for a chance process. Use basic probability rules, including the complement rule and the addition rule for mutually exclusive events. Use a two-way table or Venn diagram to model a chance process and calculate probabilities involving two events. Use the general addition rule to calculate probabilities. Calculate and interpret conditional probabilities. Use the general multiplication rule to calculate probabilities. Use tree diagrams to model a chance process and calculate probabilities involving two or more events. Determine if two events are independent. When appropriate, use the multiplication rule for independent events to compute probabilities. Use simulation to model chance behavior. Monday Tuesday Block Day Friday 31 1 2/3 4 Idea of Probability (5.1) Pig Rollin’ 7 8 11 Probability Rules (5.2) General Addition Rule (5.2) 14 Probability Review 15 Test 6: Probability Rules Chapter 5 9/10 Condition Probability (5.3) Monty Hall Problem Paper- Wad Lab 16/17 Simulation 5.1 21 22 23/24 25 Ch. 5 Quiz - FRAPPY! 18 Simulation Practice THANKSGIVING BREAK 28 29 Review Simulation Test 7: Simulation 30/1 2