slides - John L. Pollock

... practical use of probabilities without being able to deduce everything we need via the probability calculus. • I will argue that, on a certain conception of probability, there are mathematically derivable second-order probabilities to the effect that various inferences about first-order probabilitie ...

... practical use of probabilities without being able to deduce everything we need via the probability calculus. • I will argue that, on a certain conception of probability, there are mathematically derivable second-order probabilities to the effect that various inferences about first-order probabilitie ...

The Probability of Inconsistencies in Complex Collective Decisions

... distributions of the form discussed in Section 3 are equally probable. That expected probability coincides with the probability of the paradox under the so-called impartial anonymous culture assumption. In Section 5, I discuss two escape-routes from the paradox, the premise- and conclusion-based dec ...

... distributions of the form discussed in Section 3 are equally probable. That expected probability coincides with the probability of the paradox under the so-called impartial anonymous culture assumption. In Section 5, I discuss two escape-routes from the paradox, the premise- and conclusion-based dec ...

Misspecified Recovery Jaroslav Boroviˇcka Lars Peter Hansen Jos´e A. Scheinkman

... Arrow, that asset prices reflect a combination of investors’ risk aversion and the probability distributions used to assess risk. In dynamic models, investors’ risk aversion is expressed by stochastic discount factors that include compensations for risk exposures. In this paper, we ask what can be l ...

... Arrow, that asset prices reflect a combination of investors’ risk aversion and the probability distributions used to assess risk. In dynamic models, investors’ risk aversion is expressed by stochastic discount factors that include compensations for risk exposures. In this paper, we ask what can be l ...

What Could Be Objective About Probabilities

... “Humean mosaic”, then we have a clear breakdown of Humean supervenience: two worlds could agree completely in their Humean mosaic but disagree in their physical structure, since they are governed by different probabilistic laws. Since the evidence available to scientists in a world is determined by ...

... “Humean mosaic”, then we have a clear breakdown of Humean supervenience: two worlds could agree completely in their Humean mosaic but disagree in their physical structure, since they are governed by different probabilistic laws. Since the evidence available to scientists in a world is determined by ...

Comparative Value and the Weight of Reasons

... Marcus Pivato, Peter Sher, Shlomi Sher, Eran Shmaya, Joel Sobel and participants at the Workshop on Reasons and Mental States in Decision Theory at LSE. ...

... Marcus Pivato, Peter Sher, Shlomi Sher, Eran Shmaya, Joel Sobel and participants at the Workshop on Reasons and Mental States in Decision Theory at LSE. ...