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Name ________________________ Date ________Chapter 5 Syllabus - AP Statistics - B
Probability: What Are The Chances?
Chapter Objective:Students will understand randomness; the concepts and rules of probabilities; how to use
simulation to estimate probabilities; probability models and their use to describe chance behavior; and conditional
probabilities and independence.
Day 1
11/2
TOPICS:
▪The Idea of
Probability
▪Randomness
and Myths
about
Randomness
▪Simulation
5.1 – Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
I. Concepts and Skills to Master: ►Interpret probability as a long-run relative
frequency in context►Use simulation to model chance behavior
II. Assignments
A. Warm Up – Anscombe’s Data & M& M Activities due today: last call
B. Probability Recap & Discussion
C. Quiz 5.1 A & 5.1 Check for Understanding Concepts 1 – 2 handout
III. Homework
A. Reading Guide 5.1 & 5.2
B. Textbook: Pages 281-293 #1, #5 -13 (odd) #14, #18, #19, #23, #25
Day 2
11/5
Nov. 15th
TOPICS:
▪Probability
Models
▪Basic Rules of
Probability
▪Two Way
Tables and
Probability
▪Venn
Diagrams and
Probability
▪Complement
Day 3
11/9
TOPICS:
▪Conditional
Probability
▪Independent
Events
(Independence)
▪Tree Diagram
▪Multiplication
Rule
5.2 Probability Rules
I.
Concepts and Skills to Master:►Describe a probability model for a chance
process ►Use basic probability rules, including the complement rule and the
addition rule for mutually exclusive events►Use a Venn diagram to model a
chance process involving two events. ►Use the general addition rule to calculate the
probability of A union B.
II. Assignments
A. Warm Up – Review 5.1 LSRL
B. Homework Q & A
C. 5.1 and 5.2 Notes & Practice
III. Homework
A. Textbook: Pages 299- 308; #27, 29, 31-36 (all), #43 – 55 (odd)
B. Reading Guide 5.3
5.3 – Conditional Probability and Independence
I. Concepts and Skills to Master: ►Use a tree diagram to describe chance behavior
when appropriate ►Use the general multiplication rule to solve probability
questions ►Determine whether two events are independent ►Find the
probability that an event occurs using a two-way table ►Use the multiplication
rule for independent events to compute probabilities ►Compute conditional
probabilities
II. Assignments
A. Warm Up – Review 5.1 & 5.2
B. Homework Q & A
C. Guided Notes & Guided Practice
D. Quiz handout 5.2 B & Quiz 5.3 C Reading Guide 5.1 & 5.2
III. Homework
A. Chapter 5 Review (Multiple Choice &Frappy)
B. Textbook: Pages 312 – 328 #57-60 (all); 63-69 (odd); 77, 79, 83-99; skip 89
T
Quiz
Test
Date for Chapter 5 Quiz: TBA _____________________
Date for TEST (Chapters 1 – 6) ____________________
Vocabulary:
Complement, Conditional probability, Conditional probability formula, Disjoint, Event, General addition rule
for two events General multiplication rule, Independent events (independence), Intersection, Mutually exclusive,
Outcome, Probability, Probability model, Sample space, Simulation, Tree diagram, Union, Venn diagram
Essential Questions:
1.
What is a random phenomenon, when do we need
to consider it and how can we investigate it using
probability and simulation?
2.
How is the likelihood of a random event occurring
related to the long-term frequency of occurrence
of the event?
3.
What is the
phenomenon?
sample
space
of a
random
4.
For a finite number of outcomes, how do we use
the multiplication principle to determine the
number of outcomes?
5.
How do we construct Tree diagrams, Venn
diagrams and Two-way tables to organize visually
the use of the multiplication and addition rules to
determine the probabilities of events?
6.
For continuous variables, how do we use
geometric areas to find probabilities (areas under
density curves) of events (intervals on the
horizontal axis) and for determine the likelihood of
an event?
7.
For continuous variables, what is the probability of a
precise value occurring?
8.
How do we determine if a given probability distribution
is valid?
9.
How can we perform a simulation by use of a random
number table, a calculator or software to investigate the
likelihood of an outcome occurring?
10. What is a joint probability? How do we use its properties
to solve problems?
11. What are the probability rules and how do we use them
to determine if two events are disjoint and/or
complementary, find the probabilities of unions and
intersections, and find the joint probability of two
events?
12. What is a conditional probability, how do we find it, and
how do we use it to determine potential causes of events?
13. What is the property of Independence, and how is it
related to Conditional Probabilities?
14. Are mutually exclusive events independent? Why or why
not?