Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
MOTIVE Models for Adaptive Forest Management addressing the call FP7-ENV-2008-1 and the topic ENV.2.1.6.1 Development of adaptive forest management models. MOTIVE is a large-scale integrating project (project number 226544). The project Large scale integrated project In the 7th Framework programme of the EU MOTIVE investigates adaptive management strategies that address climate and land use change. It also examines the impacts of these changes with respect to a broad range of forest goods and services. Coordinated by Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg Project Co-ordinator: Prof. Dr. Marc Hanewinkel 6.5.2017 2 Objectives To provide insights, data and tools to improve policymaking and adaptive forest resource management under climate change Integrated assessment of forest management strategies A comparative assessment across a wide range of climatic and socio-economic conditions Influence of feedback loops from socio-economy and policy making on resource management Translate scientific state of knowledge into decision support for policy makers and forest practitioners Scientific work packages data Baseline trends and possible futures for the EU (WP2) Development of improved models for adaptive forest management (WP3) Testing & evaluating management options and risks (WP4) Evaluating and selecting good adaptive forest management strategies (WP5) Improved decision support in adaptive forest management (WP6) methods C a s e s t u d i e s Project implementation Case studies Two cases per each of five bioclimatic zones and one for the EU Trends (WP2) Models (WP3) Options and risks (WP4) Strategies (WP5) Coordination (WP1) Decision support (WP6) Communi cation (WP7) Regional case studies Boreal Kronoberg Boreal North Karelia Temperate Atlantic Wales Continental - Mountainous Carpathian Mountains Temperate Atlantic SE Veluwe Temperate Central - Mountainous Montafon Valley Mediterranean Chamusca Mediterranean Catalonia Continental - Mediterranean Panagiurishte Temperate Central Black Forest Case study information 1/3 Region The main risks Goods and services Adaptation options North Boreal North Karelian, Finland wind and snow timber biomass for energy South Boreal Kronoberg, Sweden wind timber nature conservation - Temperate Atlantic Wales, UK wind timber pest outbreaks recreation - - Northern Plain Atlantic SE Veluwe, Netherlands drought fire timber nature conservation - species preference type and intensity of thinning rotation length rotation length use of deciduous tree species low-impact silvicultural systems tree mixtures different tree species dense forest Case study information 2/3 Region The main risks Goods and services Adaptation options Central Temperate Black Forest, Germany timber biomass for energy recreation - shift of species close to nature management Central Alpine Montafon Valley, Austria pest outbreaks wind drought wind pest outbreaks - shift of species silvicultural regimes Mediterranean Prades, Spain drought fire timber biomass for energy carbon nature conservation recreation water protection nature conservation recreation, timber - forest fire prevention thinning alternatives Mediterranean Atlantic Chamusca, Portugal drought fire water protection timber - management alternatives Case study information 3/3 Region The main risks Goods and services Adaptation options Continental Mediterranean Panagyurishte, Bulgaria Continental mountainous Carpathians, Romania European drought fire timber biomass for energy water protection recreation timber biomass for energy carbon - drought pest outbreaks drought wind fire pest outbreaks - timber biomass for energy carbon nature conservation transformation from coppice stands into high stands species control thinning intensity rotation length introducing new species adapt the forest management aims The Consortium First results and impacts of MOTIVE Climate change impacts on Net Primary Productivity (NPP) • Until 2050 most regions throughout Europe show minor increases in NPP, but locally and in the Southwest NPP declines due to increased summer drought • Change in NPP (g C m-2 a-1) by 2050 A2 scenario -200 6.5.2017 0 600 Avg. ΔNPP [g C m-2 a-1] Future suitability and yields of the sites for Douglas fir in Wales 1961-1990 baseline 2080 B2 low emissions Ray and Nicoll, 2011 2080 B2 low emissions 2080 A1F1 high emissions Testing and evaluating management options and risks Norw. spruce Douglas fir Shannon's H Stand maturity index Temperli, Elkin, Bugmann, 2011. 0 Provision of timber cannot be maintained without management changes Europ. beech Sessile oak Harvested biomass Index Declining Norway spruce biomass under an intermediate climate change scenario & unchanged even-aged Norway spruce management Live biomass [t/ha] 1 0 200 Black Forest, Germany 2000 2050 2100 Management influences fire risk in Southern Europe (Catalonian case study) 0,035 BA =20m2/ha dg=30cm Decreasing fire occurrence probability with reduced basal area (BA) and larger average diameter (dg). C. Gracia, 2011 Annual Fire Pocurr 0,030 0,025 BA =20m2/ha dg=10cm 0,020 BA =40m2/ha dg=10cm 0,015 0,010 0,005 0,000 0 0,5 1 1,5 Aridity index Pannual/ETPannual 2 Models to support adaptive forest management – first results Effect of intense thinning carried out in 1992 in reducing mortality during the drought of 1994. Thinning alleviates drought stress and reduces fire risk in Catalonian forests. 1992 6.5.2017 1994 Challenges facing forest managers and the approaches science may take to support decisions ENow(Climate) Now Forward-looking -adaptive manager Trend-adaptive manager Re-active manager Observed change No change manager time Bredahl-Jacobsen et al. 2010 Improved decision support in adaptive management – MOTIVE toolbox for adaptive forest management The Ecosystem Service Assessment tool within the MOTIVE toolbox for adaptive forest management. The appraisal is based on forest structure and composition, stakeholder preferences, and landscape features (e.g. a digital terrain model). Maroschek, Rammer, Lexer, 2011. The awareness of forest owners and practitioners is critical for implementation of adaptation to climate change More about MOTIVE and topic Web page of the project: www.motive-project.net Discussion forum: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in European Forestry www.linkedin.com/groups?about=&gid=2895718