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Rama Bikkina Professor Tefft ENG 101: Climate Change and Multimedia 9/30/16 Hurricanes: The Bigger and Bolder Storms of the Modern Era On October 29th, 2012 a Category 3 Hurricane hit the New York/ New Jersey area. This superstorm, Hurricane Sandy, featured 115mph winds and left 147 dead, causing $75 billion in damages (NHC, 14). Like many people in the area, I lived without power for ten days and waited in line for hours just to get gas for the car. Simply driving around my neighborhood after the storm, it looked like a war zone straight from a movie, with trees and leaves strewn everywhere and houses damaged beyond belief. Although I was lucky enough to escape unscathed, hundreds of people, lost their lives, their homes, their livelihood, and almost everything that they truly cherished. There is one image that still sticks in my mind of a National Guard Truck driving through the flooded streets of Hoboken, NJ rescuing people stranded in their apartments. This image is so personally iconic because I was walking on that same street with my friends, just a week before, but now it was almost completely under water and surely would never be the same. Hurricane activity is increasing in the world and setting records for size, speed, and damage. Not only is activity increasing in areas that are already high risk hurricane areas, but also in areas where hurricane activity was almost nonexistent until recently. Starting with the drastic hurricane season of 2005, which featured Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, scientists began to take notice of a consistent increase of hurricane activity that could not have been attributed to natural variability. Instead, scientific studies have consistently shown that human activities and the subsequent global warming are behind the change in hurricane activity. While some still disagree with this point, hurricanes are increase in amount and intensity and there is data to support the claim, the main point people need to focus on is preparation for the next hurricane level event and working towards mitigating future disasters. Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29th, 2012 in southern New Jersey and proceeded to wreak havoc across the state. This Hurricane featured winds that extended as far as 175 miles out from the eye of the storm, thus classifying it as a particularly large sized storm (NHC, 6). As a result, many measures were taken before landfall to limit the damage. In New Jersey, all residents on the coastal islands were ordered to evacuate, and many Jersey Shore towns were requested to evacuate as well (Stephan, 1). Meanwhile, Amtrak, Airlines, and several other transportation service providers all cancelled their services ahead of the storm as well. In both New York and New Jersey multiple branches of the National Guard were mobilized to help with preparation and eventual recovery efforts. Despite all these preparations, Hurricane Sandy still caused more damage than anyone really expected. New Jersey beaches were measured to be almost 30-40 feet shorter as a result of the storm, and almost 113,000 trees were destroyed. The storm caused most of the cities and towns along the Hudson River to flood causing mass evacuations and requiring massive rescue efforts. For example, in Hoboken, NJ alone more than 20,000 were stranded (NHC, 17). As the storm finally passed by October 31st the damage left in the aftermath was very apparent. 2.4 million homes were left without power for many days following the storm, not to mention the almost 346,000 houses that were destroyed or left in dire condition (NHC, 17). Only with the help of power crews from other states was power eventually able to be restored. Hurricane Sandy caught a whole region of the country off guard and as a result, caused unimaginable damage, but this is only the beginning. After Hurricane Sandy struck, many asked why the northeastern states weren’t better prepared for this storm. The answer is simple, while the northeast is no stranger to inclement weather, it is not used to handling hurricanes at all. Therein lies the main question: why are more and more hurricanes striking areas that are not typically at a high risk for hurricane exposure and why are these hurricanes consistently increasing in degree of damage. For years, scientists have been studying this phenomenon and trying to understand what could possibly be causing this uptick. The Hurricane season of 2005 record breaking and featured major storms such has Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, LA. After looking into the data for 2005 and some other years before and after it, scientists began to develop a hypothesis with regards to what is causing this increase. Many hypothesize that global warming is playing a strong role. To better understand this hypothesis, it is important to first look into how hurricanes form. Hurricanes rely heavily on the presence of warm water for their formation (Trenberth, 1). When water is warm it often releases some of that heat through a process called evaporation. When most of this water evaporates to the atmosphere, it will undergo a process called condensation. During condensation the heat is released and carried to a higher altitude where it can cause different climate events, including thunderstorms that can lead to hurricanes. In order for these thunderstorms to follow the specific pattern necessary for hurricane activity they need to experience a drastic temperature difference and subsequent atmospheric disturbance (Trenberth, 1). Regardless of their size, all hurricanes require the same ingredients to form, however it is the availability of these ingredients can heavily influence the size and intensity of the storm. Before fully committing to the claim that global warming is the main culprit, it is important to look at other factors in hurricane formation such as sea-surface temperatures and water vapor production. Scientists have been measuring the factors that contribute to hurricanes since 1970, such as sea-surface temperature which has increased by about 0.6º C on average, a very sizeable change (Anthes, et al, 624). Because of this increase, warm water is more readily available and allows for hurricanes to form much more easily. Scientists have also created many models to predict how sea-surface temperatures will change given current trends of global warming and climate change. On average the models have predicted a sea-surface temperature change of about 0.8º C to 2.4º C, which scientists have correlated not only to more hurricanes, but also to a 6% increase in wind speed for each storm (Anthes, et al, 624). Furthermore, models have also shown that current trends of global warming and climate change will lead to an almost 18% increase in precipitation in hurricane level events. Some question this correlation because of the high number of factors that go into precipitation, however there is evidence of an increased amount of events that featured heavy precipitation worldwide. This evidence in conjunction with the information about warmer sea- surface temperatures illustrates the very dreadful outcome of increased hurricane activity and intensity. While these factors play a big role in role hurricane formation, they also play a large role in exacerbating the damage the damage that hurricanes can cause. For example, warm water contributes heavily to glacial melting, which has been a central talking point for global warming for many years mainly because it causes sea level rise. Higher sea levels reduce the size of beaches which are often seen as protective structures for the coastline and as a result open up the surrounding areas to greater storm surges and much greater flooding (NHC, 8). Hurricane Katrina is just one example of this and what else is still to come. One of the main scientific breakthroughs that has been found is that as a result of this new higher temperature in the world, circulation patterns are subject to change. As a result, new areas, that have no experience dealing with hurricanes are being opened up to the extreme weather. Altogether the science mentioned above clearly shows how multiple hurricane risk factors are all being increased at the same time due to anthropogenic warming and how that is leading for both increased hurricane activity and intensity. Despite the multitude of evidence presented by many scientists from all over the globe, there are still many people that deny the link between climate change and hurricane activity. One specific point that has repeatedly been attacked is the rise in sea- surface temperature. Scientists that do not believe that the sea – surface temperature rise is the result of human activity are attributing the rise to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (Anthes, et al, 625). This phenomenon states that sea temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, specifically the North Atlantic, will spend many decades at a low temperature and then increase to a higher temperature for a few more decades before decreasing again (Trenberth, 1). This theory does have some basis in the fact that sea-surface temperatures from 1970 – 1990 have been relatively low compared to where they are now. However, what makes this theory problematic is the fact that scientific models have shown that it alone is not enough to explain the record breaking increase in hurricanes (Anthes, et al, 625). If the theory were true, while sea – surface temperatures would increase, they would not increase nearly enough to cause these issues. Overall, there are few points that can counter the overwhelming amount of evidence in favor of the climate change and global warming theory. Unfortunately, all this evidence points to a very grim future for the Earth with regard to weathering these major hurricane events. There are two main paths to consider, mitigation and preparation. Given the current outlook it is important to first focus on preparation, while still looking into mitigation so that people can work towards both prevention of future hurricanes and protection against immediate threats. In 2013, President Barack Obama ordered all Federal Agencies to come up with a Climate Change Adaptation Plan so that they would be better equipped to handle natural disasters (White House, 12). In the plans, the agencies listed in high detail how they planned to deal with various weather events and how they would keep their various activities functioning in the face of climate disasters. Furthermore, several agencies have been working with specific high risk communities to help them better prepare for disasters. For example, the EPA partnered with low-lying communities in North Carolina to help them better prepare for events that would cause issues for them due to rising sea levels. Another aspect federal agencies are looking into heavily is infrastructure and its ability to withstand these very vigorous events. For example, the Federal Highway Administration partnered with several states to help prepare plans for dealing with structural issues and climate events. Another aspect that is being heavily focused on is the recovery after a disaster. After Hurricane Sandy, the Obama administration and many other Federal Agencies took notice of the struggles that New York and New Jersey faced, and began researching ways to better support the affected communities and give them. As a result of this research, agencies such as the Federal Transit Administration spent almost $6 billion on upgrading the major transit systems of the New York/ New Jersey area to make them better equipped to handle such disasters in the future (White House, 14). Although it may seem like all those measures are enough to sufficiently prepare for a hurricane type disaster, in reality it does not even come close to being enough. As a result, it also important to look at any possible ways of preventing any future disasters. For that reason, in 2014 the United States invested $2.7 billion in research to better understand climate change and its effects on the world (White House, 16). They also used some of this money to forge partnerships with public companies and make information available about the threat of climate change so that people and leaders can take action and make a change in the world. The last and perhaps most important point comes with regards to the multinational effort to combat climate change. For example, the US has launched an initiative called the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, which is group of the world’s leading greenhouse gas producers that comes together to discuss and work towards climate goals (White House, 17). However, the conversations have not stopped there as there have also been multiple climate focused partnerships made with budding economies so to prevent them from growing into a major greenhouse gas producer. Although individual everyday efforts are key to protecting this world, these multinational partnerships and recognition of the climate issue is what the world needs to prevent more surprise disasters like hurricane Sandy. Climate change is a fairly modern issue, as a result it still has many doubters, however that does not discount the urgency with which it needs to be attended to. Hurricane Sandy is just the beginning of what has been scientifically shown to be a bleak future in terms of severe climate disasters. Hurricanes are becoming more common and far more intense than they used to be on average, and as a result it is key for the world to recognize that and act. While some may blame the increased activity on “natural variability”, that still does not explain the sheer size of the increase in hurricane activity. Ultimately, recognition by governments is key to changing giving the world a fighting chance and luckily the United States government has taken a leading role in that battle. Hurricanes are getting worse, and it’s up to the world to make a change and prevent future disasters. Works Cited “A Historic Commitment to Protecting the Environment and Reversing Climate Change.” The White House. The White House, 2015. Web. 20 Sept 106. Anthes, Richard A., Robert W. Corell, Greg Holland, James W. Hurrell, Michail C. Maccracken, and Kevin E. Trenberth. “Hurricanes and Global Warming- Potential Linkages and Consequences.” Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87.5 (2006): 623-28 Web. Blake, Eric S., and Robert J. Berg. “National Hurricane Center.” National Hurricane Center. Web. 27 Sept. 2016. Fischetti, Mark. “Did Climate Change Cause Hurricane Sandy?” Scientific American Blog Network.N.p., 2013. Web. 19 Sept. 2016. 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