Download Hurricane Research Paper

Rama Bikkina
Professor Tefft
ENG 101: Climate Change and Multimedia
9/30/16
Hurricanes: The Bigger and Bolder Storms of the Modern Era
On October 29th, 2012 a Category 3 Hurricane hit the New York/ New Jersey area. This
superstorm, Hurricane Sandy, featured 115mph winds and left 147 dead, causing $75 billion in
damages (NHC, 14). Like many people in the area, I lived without power for ten days and waited
in line for hours just to get gas for the car. Simply driving around my neighborhood after the
storm, it looked like a war zone straight from a movie, with trees and leaves strewn everywhere
and houses damaged beyond belief. Although I was lucky enough to escape unscathed, hundreds
of people, lost their lives, their homes, their livelihood, and almost everything that they truly
cherished. There is one image that still sticks in my mind of a National Guard Truck driving
through the flooded streets of Hoboken, NJ rescuing people stranded in their apartments. This
image is so personally iconic because I was walking on that same street with my friends, just a
week before, but now it was almost completely under water and surely would never be the same.
Hurricane activity is increasing in the world and setting records for size, speed,
and damage. Not only is activity increasing in areas that are already high risk hurricane areas, but
also in areas where hurricane activity was almost nonexistent until recently. Starting with the
drastic hurricane season of 2005, which featured Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, scientists began to
take notice of a consistent increase of hurricane activity that could not have been attributed to
natural variability. Instead, scientific studies have consistently shown that human activities and
the subsequent global warming are behind the change in hurricane activity. While some still
disagree with this point, hurricanes are increase in amount and intensity and there is data to
support the claim, the main point people need to focus on is preparation for the next hurricane
level event and working towards mitigating future disasters.
Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29th, 2012 in southern New Jersey and
proceeded to wreak havoc across the state. This Hurricane featured winds that extended as far as
175 miles out from the eye of the storm, thus classifying it as a particularly large sized storm
(NHC, 6). As a result, many measures were taken before landfall to limit the damage. In New
Jersey, all residents on the coastal islands were ordered to evacuate, and many Jersey Shore
towns were requested to evacuate as well (Stephan, 1). Meanwhile, Amtrak, Airlines, and several
other transportation service providers all cancelled their services ahead of the storm as well. In
both New York and New Jersey multiple branches of the National Guard were mobilized to help
with preparation and eventual recovery efforts.
Despite all these preparations, Hurricane Sandy still caused more damage than anyone
really expected. New Jersey beaches were measured to be almost 30-40 feet shorter as a result of
the storm, and almost 113,000 trees were destroyed. The storm caused most of the cities and
towns along the Hudson River to flood causing mass evacuations and requiring massive rescue
efforts. For example, in Hoboken, NJ alone more than 20,000 were stranded (NHC, 17). As the
storm finally passed by October 31st the damage left in the aftermath was very apparent. 2.4
million homes were left without power for many days following the storm, not to mention the
almost 346,000 houses that were destroyed or left in dire condition (NHC, 17). Only with the
help of power crews from other states was power eventually able to be restored. Hurricane Sandy
caught a whole region of the country off guard and as a result, caused unimaginable damage, but
this is only the beginning.
After Hurricane Sandy struck, many asked why the northeastern states weren’t better
prepared for this storm. The answer is simple, while the northeast is no stranger to inclement
weather, it is not used to handling hurricanes at all. Therein lies the main question: why are more
and more hurricanes striking areas that are not typically at a high risk for hurricane exposure and
why are these hurricanes consistently increasing in degree of damage. For years, scientists have
been studying this phenomenon and trying to understand what could possibly be causing this
uptick. The Hurricane season of 2005 record breaking and featured major storms such has
Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, LA. After looking into the data for 2005 and
some other years before and after it, scientists began to develop a hypothesis with regards to
what is causing this increase. Many hypothesize that global warming is playing a strong role. To
better understand this hypothesis, it is important to first look into how hurricanes form.
Hurricanes rely heavily on the presence of warm water for their formation (Trenberth, 1). When
water is warm it often releases some of that heat through a process called evaporation. When
most of this water evaporates to the atmosphere, it will undergo a process called condensation.
During condensation the heat is released and carried to a higher altitude where it can cause
different climate events, including thunderstorms that can lead to hurricanes. In order for these
thunderstorms to follow the specific pattern necessary for hurricane activity they need to
experience a drastic temperature difference and subsequent atmospheric disturbance (Trenberth,
1). Regardless of their size, all hurricanes require the same ingredients to form, however it is the
availability of these ingredients can heavily influence the size and intensity of the storm.
Before fully committing to the claim that global warming is the main culprit, it is
important to look at other factors in hurricane formation such as sea-surface temperatures and
water vapor production. Scientists have been measuring the factors that contribute to hurricanes
since 1970, such as sea-surface temperature which has increased by about 0.6º C on average, a
very sizeable change (Anthes, et al, 624). Because of this increase, warm water is more readily
available and allows for hurricanes to form much more easily. Scientists have also created many
models to predict how sea-surface temperatures will change given current trends of global
warming and climate change. On average the models have predicted a sea-surface temperature
change of about 0.8º C to 2.4º C, which scientists have correlated not only to more hurricanes,
but also to a 6% increase in wind speed for each storm (Anthes, et al, 624). Furthermore, models
have also shown that current trends of global warming and climate change will lead to an almost
18% increase in precipitation in hurricane level events. Some question this correlation because of
the high number of factors that go into precipitation, however there is evidence of an increased
amount of events that featured heavy precipitation worldwide. This evidence in conjunction with
the information about warmer sea- surface temperatures illustrates the very dreadful outcome of
increased hurricane activity and intensity.
While these factors play a big role in role hurricane formation, they also play a large role
in exacerbating the damage the damage that hurricanes can cause. For example, warm water
contributes heavily to glacial melting, which has been a central talking point for global warming
for many years mainly because it causes sea level rise. Higher sea levels reduce the size of
beaches which are often seen as protective structures for the coastline and as a result open up the
surrounding areas to greater storm surges and much greater flooding (NHC, 8). Hurricane
Katrina is just one example of this and what else is still to come. One of the main scientific
breakthroughs that has been found is that as a result of this new higher temperature in the world,
circulation patterns are subject to change. As a result, new areas, that have no experience dealing
with hurricanes are being opened up to the extreme weather. Altogether the science mentioned
above clearly shows how multiple hurricane risk factors are all being increased at the same time
due to anthropogenic warming and how that is leading for both increased hurricane activity and
intensity.
Despite the multitude of evidence presented by many scientists from all over the globe,
there are still many people that deny the link between climate change and hurricane activity. One
specific point that has repeatedly been attacked is the rise in sea- surface temperature. Scientists
that do not believe that the sea – surface temperature rise is the result of human activity are
attributing the rise to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (Anthes, et al, 625). This
phenomenon states that sea temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, specifically the North Atlantic,
will spend many decades at a low temperature and then increase to a higher temperature for a
few more decades before decreasing again (Trenberth, 1). This theory does have some basis in
the fact that sea-surface temperatures from 1970 – 1990 have been relatively low compared to
where they are now. However, what makes this theory problematic is the fact that scientific
models have shown that it alone is not enough to explain the record breaking increase in
hurricanes (Anthes, et al, 625). If the theory were true, while sea – surface temperatures would
increase, they would not increase nearly enough to cause these issues. Overall, there are few
points that can counter the overwhelming amount of evidence in favor of the climate change and
global warming theory.
Unfortunately, all this evidence points to a very grim future for the Earth with regard to
weathering these major hurricane events. There are two main paths to consider, mitigation and
preparation. Given the current outlook it is important to first focus on preparation, while still
looking into mitigation so that people can work towards both prevention of future hurricanes and
protection against immediate threats. In 2013, President Barack Obama ordered all Federal
Agencies to come up with a Climate Change Adaptation Plan so that they would be better
equipped to handle natural disasters (White House, 12). In the plans, the agencies listed in high
detail how they planned to deal with various weather events and how they would keep their
various activities functioning in the face of climate disasters. Furthermore, several agencies have
been working with specific high risk communities to help them better prepare for disasters. For
example, the EPA partnered with low-lying communities in North Carolina to help them better
prepare for events that would cause issues for them due to rising sea levels. Another aspect
federal agencies are looking into heavily is infrastructure and its ability to withstand these very
vigorous events. For example, the Federal Highway Administration partnered with several states
to help prepare plans for dealing with structural issues and climate events. Another aspect that is
being heavily focused on is the recovery after a disaster. After Hurricane Sandy, the Obama
administration and many other Federal Agencies took notice of the struggles that New York and
New Jersey faced, and began researching ways to better support the affected communities and
give them. As a result of this research, agencies such as the Federal Transit Administration spent
almost $6 billion on upgrading the major transit systems of the New York/ New Jersey area to
make them better equipped to handle such disasters in the future (White House, 14).
Although it may seem like all those measures are enough to sufficiently prepare for a
hurricane type disaster, in reality it does not even come close to being enough. As a result, it also
important to look at any possible ways of preventing any future disasters. For that reason, in
2014 the United States invested $2.7 billion in research to better understand climate change and
its effects on the world (White House, 16). They also used some of this money to forge
partnerships with public companies and make information available about the threat of climate
change so that people and leaders can take action and make a change in the world. The last and
perhaps most important point comes with regards to the multinational effort to combat climate
change. For example, the US has launched an initiative called the Major Economies Forum on
Energy and Climate, which is group of the world’s leading greenhouse gas producers that comes
together to discuss and work towards climate goals (White House, 17). However, the
conversations have not stopped there as there have also been multiple climate focused
partnerships made with budding economies so to prevent them from growing into a major
greenhouse gas producer. Although individual everyday efforts are key to protecting this world,
these multinational partnerships and recognition of the climate issue is what the world needs to
prevent more surprise disasters like hurricane Sandy.
Climate change is a fairly modern issue, as a result it still has many doubters, however
that does not discount the urgency with which it needs to be attended to. Hurricane Sandy is just
the beginning of what has been scientifically shown to be a bleak future in terms of severe
climate disasters. Hurricanes are becoming more common and far more intense than they used to
be on average, and as a result it is key for the world to recognize that and act. While some may
blame the increased activity on “natural variability”, that still does not explain the sheer size of
the increase in hurricane activity. Ultimately, recognition by governments is key to changing
giving the world a fighting chance and luckily the United States government has taken a leading
role in that battle. Hurricanes are getting worse, and it’s up to the world to make a change and
prevent future disasters.
Works Cited
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White House. The White House, 2015. Web. 20 Sept 106.
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Maccracken, and Kevin E. Trenberth. “Hurricanes and Global Warming- Potential Linkages and
Consequences.” Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87.5
(2006): 623-28 Web.
Blake, Eric S., and Robert J. Berg. “National Hurricane Center.” National Hurricane Center.
Web. 27 Sept. 2016.
Fischetti, Mark. “Did Climate Change Cause Hurricane Sandy?” Scientific American Blog
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Kluger, Jeffrey. “Earth at the Tipping Point: Global Warming Heats Up.” Time. Time Inc.,
2006. Web. 19 Sept. 2016.
Lynas, Mark. Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet. Washington, D.C.: National
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Mutzbaugh, Ben. “Sandy: Flight Cancellations Top 20,000, but Start to Ease.” USA Today.
Gannett, 2012. Web. 19 Sept. 2016.
Semuels, Alana. “WARMER OCEANS PRODUCING MORE POTENT STORMS.” Pittsburgh
Post- Gazette. 16 Sept. 2005, A-1
State Department Document / FIND. “U.S. Study Links Global Warming, Hurricane Intensity:
Implications for life, property in Caribbean, Mexico, parts of United States” American
Geophysical Union. (Aug 16, 2006).
Stephan, Denise Di. “UPDATE: Bay Head and Mantoloking Advising Voluntary Evacuations.”
Point Pleasant, NJ Patch. 2012. Web. 27 Sept. 2016
Trenberth, Kevin E. “Warmer Oceans, Stronger Hurricanes.” Scientific American 297.1 (2007):
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