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Adaptive Policymaking for Agriculture, Water Resources and Climate Change Designing Policies that can Adapt to a World of Uncertainty, Change and Surprise COP 11, Montreal 9 December 2005 Why Study Adaptive Polices? The world’s poor are most heavily dependant on agroecological services, and most vulnerable to deteriorating environmental conditions, worsened but not necessarily created by climate change [IPCC, 2001]. Climate Phenomena Higher Maximum likely) Higher likely) Temperature (very Climate Impact increased heat stress in livestock increased risk of damage to a number of crops Key point: critical impacts and vulnerabilities are in agriculture and water resources Minimum Temperatures (very More Intense Precipitation Events (very likely) Increased Tropical Cyclone (likely - over some areas) intensity Increased Droughts and Floods associated with El Nino events (likely - over some areas) Increased Asian Monsoon Variability (likely) decreased risk of damage to a number of crops and increased risk to others extended range of some pest and disease vectors increased flood, landslide and mudslide damage increased soil erosion increased risks to human life, risk of infectious disease epidemics, many others increase damage go coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity in drought and flood-prone regions increased flood and drought magnitude and damages The details are, however, unknowable: global and regional perspectives The Need: recent IDRC research [Moench et al, 2003] “When situations are characterized by variability, uncertainty and change, conventional planning scenarios provide little guidance regarding future needs and conditions.” “Specific solutions are less important than the existence of processes and frameworks that enable solutions to be identified and implemented as specific constraints and contexts change.” Civil aviation policy of Netherlands: expansion of Schiphol airport “If we were able to predict the future accurately, preferred policies could be identified in principle by simply examining the future that would follow from the implementation of each possible policy.” Project Research Premise the adaptive capacity and resilience of communities is a critical aspect in the transition to sustainable development… and one of the important factors in building adaptive and resilient communities is for the public policies, which influence the behaviour of communities, to themselves be adaptive and resilient to uncertainty, change and surprise. Research Hypothesis Policies and instruments that are adaptive have specific characteristics and mechanisms that make them adaptive These characteristics and mechanisms are poorly understood at both a practical and theoretical level. Project Goal To advance the understanding of adaptive policies and policy instruments to help government agriculture and water resource policymakers at the local, state and federal levels to design adaptive policies – policies that have the following characteristics: Robustness - the ability to be effective under a range of anticipated conditions. Adaptability - the ability of a policy instrument to respond well to unanticipated circumstances and longer-term change. Adapted from Walker, W.E., S.A. Rahman, and J. Cave 2001. Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making. European Journal of Operational Research 128: 282-289. Our Current Conceptual Thinking Rules and Delivery Policy Design Policy Implementation Objective Setting Operation Instrument Rules Instrument Design Understanding the Issue Monitoring, Evaluation & Improvement Delivery System Development Staff Training Instrument Delivery Learning & Improvement Idealized illustration of policy design and implementation Monitoring & Evaluation Adaptability Via Monitoring, Learning and Improvement Others’ actions Unforeseen events Changing preferences Stage Setting Assembling a Basic Policy Walker et al. (2001) Reassessment Certain Vulnerabilities Uncertain Signposts Mitigating actions Hedging actions Triggers Corrective actions Defensive actions from Walker, W.E., S.A. Rahman, and J. Cave 2001. Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making. European Journal of Operational Research 128: 282-289. Adaptability Via Defining Characteristics Examples: Ensure that social capital remains intact (Ruitenbeek and Cartier 2001). Create opportunity for self-organisation and build networks of reciprocal interaction that foster trust and cooperation (Berkes et al. 2003; Glouberman et al. 2003; Axelrod and Cohen 2000) Promote variation and redundancy (Berkes et al.; Glouberman et al.) Combine experiential and experimental knowledge (Berkes et al.) Insights from Case Study Research – Canada’s Crow Rate War Measures Act Suspends Crow Rates Crow Rates Restored for Grain and Flour Manitoba Government Requests Change: Crow Rtes put into Railway Act as “statutory grain rates” Crow Rates extended to westbound export grain shipped to west coast Crow’s Nest Pass Act 1897 1903 Western Grain Transportation Act terminated Crow Rates extended to rapeseed and flaxseed. 1919 1922 1925 Inflationary period due to pressures of First World War 1927 1946 Crow Rates terminated and replaced with Western Grain Transportation Act 1961 1984 Period of revenue loss for railways sparks a chain of studies to understand the issue War time price controls lifted Temporary maximum freight rate period ends All producer payments completed 1996 2001 Lower than anticipated inflation since Substantial drop in grain prices Sources: Excerpts from Rothstein (1989); Earl (1996); Schmitz et al. 2002) Insights from Case Study Research – Canada’s Crow Rate High Flexibility 1984-1996 Robustness (capability to deal with a range of circumstances through discretion) 1897-1925 1925-1984 Low Flexibility Adaptability (the capability to recognize a significant change in conditions, interpret and learn from the information, and make necessary changes) India Case Study Research – Background Vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change Poor insurance penetration - informal sector excluded Rural credit – indebtedness – poverty Variation during 1960-82 of (a) rice yield over the Indian region (b) total food grain production (c) all-India rainfall (Source: Gadgil 1996) Insights from India case study research: Evolution of crop insurance National agriculture insurance scheme Comprehensive crop insurance scheme Pilot crop insurance scheme Experimental individual scheme 1972 Green Revolution 1978 1979 1984 Insurance linked to short-term credit 2% premium, subsidy for small farmers Basic rainfed foodgrains covered Very poor coverage of farmers Very low premium to claims ratio 1985 Experimental crop insurance scheme 1991 Economic reforms Higher premiums (subsidy for small farmers to be phased out) Option of higher risk for higher premium Extended to nonloanee farmers Commercial crops included Coverage and financial viability still an issue 1997/8 1999 IRDA Act Entry of private and foreign players 2001 High level task force Farm income insurance scheme For wheat and paddy To replace NAIS Weather indexed insurance MFIs, SHGs, village internet kiosks 2003 2004 AIC takes over from GIC Working group for Xth Plan Insights from India case study research Crop insurance robust by definition: helps deal with range of weather conditions Problems: coverage, financial viability, adverse selection Long delays in payment of claims Small and marginal farmers lose out Weather indexed insurance MORE robust Minimizes adverse selection No need to draw up and monitor individual contracts Protects overall income rather than yield of specific crop Improves farmers’ risk profile and access to bank credit Quick payouts can improve recovery times Important role for micro finance institutions Need for institutional backing Adaptability Periodic review and improvement of crop insurance Weather insurance learning from pilot schemes Future Activities Community-level research Conducted in India by TERI and Canada by IISD To identify the characteristics and mechanisms of policy instruments that can adapt to surprises and longer-term changes Synthesis Paper No.1 (available April 2006). Project Website and Contact Information www.iisd.org/climate/canada/adaptive_policy.asp Preety Bhandari The Energy and Resources Institute [email protected] Stephan Barg International Institute for Sustainable Development [email protected]