Download Mitigation potential in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use

Paper Title:
Mitigation potential in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sectors
towards sustainable agricultural growth in Vietnam
Track Title:
5e Agriculture and Regional Development
Names of
Authors:
Nguyen Thai Hoa1*
Tomoko Hasegawa2
Yuzuru Matsuoka1
[email protected] or [email protected]
Contact details of
Main Authors:
Affiliation of
Main Author:
1
Department of Urban Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of
Engineering, Kyoto University. (C cluster, Kyoto-Daigaku-Katsura,
Nishikyoku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan)
2
Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for
Environmental Studies and Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of
Science. (16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan)
*
Correspondence to: Nguyen Thai Hoa, PhD student in Department of Urban
Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, C
cluster, Kyoto-Daigaku-Katsura, Nishikyoku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan.
To contribute the target cutting global GHG emissions in half by 2050, developing
countries like Vietnam should actively develop and implement National Appropriate
Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) on a voluntary basis to ensure sustainable development.
Moreover, as a country providing a fifth of world food exports and also a country among
the few worst affected by climate change, Vietnam should address this challenge so as to
contribute more to global food security. GHG emission and mitigation potential from
energy sectors in Vietnam in 2030 has been done by Hoa et al., (2010). However,
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors in Vietnam have been one of
the largest sources of the anthropogenic GHG emission, contributing nearly 70%
(Agriculture for 51% and Forestry and Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry
(LULUCF) for 19%) and 53% (Agriculture for 43% and LULUCF for 10%) of the
emission in 1994 (INC, 2003) and 2000 (NC2, 2010), respectively. Therefore, reduction
of emission resulted from agriculture activities has been considered it as a solution for a
sustainable agricultural growth in Viet Nam. In this study, we developed a model named
"AFOLU Emission Model" to estimate mitigation potentials as a result of profit
maximization choice of technologies and assessed GHG mitigation technologies in
AFOLU sector in Vietnam. AFOLU model is a multi-regional multi-sector bottom-up
type model to estimate GHG emissions and mitigation potentials in AFOLU sector
dealing with detailed mitigation technologies. We assume that producers (i.e. farmers)
decide types of cultivated crops and livestock animals, amounts and ways of agricultural
and woody production and combinations of mitigation technologies in order to maximize
their annual profit. We do not consider that producers change their land use. Based on the
concept, AFOLU model solves the profit maximization problem under several constraints
for pre-determined demand of agricultural and woody products. This model may help
analyze effect of policies such as emission/energy tax, subsidy, and regulation and so on.
We calculated GHGs emission (CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O) from activities such as crop
production, livestock animals and land-use change. GHGs emission sources are from
livestock enteric fermentation, livestock manure, managed soils, paddy rice and land use
change. The study estimated two scenarios in 2030 in Vietnam: (1) Scenario without lowcarbon countermeasures (hereinafter referred to as 2030BaU); (2) Scenario with
introduction of low-carbon countermeasures (hereinafter referred to as 2030CM), which
is adopted low-carbon countermeasures to reduce GHGs emission in 2030. Projection of
Vietnam’s AFOLU sector development in 2030 is based on several sources such as NC2,
GSO (2009), FAOSTAT (2011) and IRRI (2011).
The finding shows that total GHG emission in 2030BaU is expected to be 61MtCO 2 eq.
GHG emission from agriculture sector would be 81MtCO 2 eq and GHG emission/sink
from LULUCF sector would be 43 and -63MtCO 2 eq, respectively. GHG emission
sources of agriculture sector comprises managed soil (N 2 O), rice paddy (CH 4 ), livestock
manure (N 2 O), livestock manure (CH 4 ) and enteric fermentation (CH 4 ). The largest share
34% of total GHG emission of agriculture sector comes from rice paddy, following by
managed soil (31%), enteric fermentation (22%) and livestock manure (13%).
We estimated GHG mitigation potentials by countermeasures under wide range of
Allowable Additional Costs (AAC) for GHG emission mitigation in 2030. Mitigation
potentials in AFOLU in 2030 would be 19, 35, 60 and 68MtCO 2 eq in the case of under 0,
10, 100 and over 100US$/tCO 2 eq of AAC, respectively. In the case of under
10US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC, midseason drainage (teq402) and off-season rice straw
amendment are expected to reduce 16MtCO 2 eq, corresponding approximately 60% of
mitigation potential of agriculture sector. GHG mitigation from rice paddy is expected to
greatly contribute to reduce large amount of GHG emission in agriculture sector in
Vietnam. In livestock sector, replacement of roughage with concentrates; dome digester,
cooking fuel and light have high economic effects. These countermeasures in the case of
under 10US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC can reduce altogether 6.0MtCO 2 eq which account for
halving 10 % for each of mitigation potential in the agriculture sector in 2030. Amount of
GHG reduction from these two countermeasures remains the same in the case of under
100US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC. In managed soils, split fertilization/optimized timing of
fertilizers and sub-optimal fertilizer application are chosen to reduce 1 and 4MtCO 2 eq at
under 10US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC, respectively. In the case of cost at most 0US$/tCO 2 eq of
ACC, no regret technology, total mitigation potential of agriculture sector would be
19MtCO 2 eq. At over 100US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC, expensive countermeasures such as daily
spread of manure (teq204), slow-release fertilizer and organic soils/restoration are
expected to additionally reduce emissions. In LULUCF sector, forest management,
conservation of existing protection forest and government action plans (plantation,
protection and conservation of forest) are expected to reduce 1, 2 and 5MtCO 2 eq,
respectively, in 2030 under 10US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC. However, at over 100US$/tCO 2 eq of
ACC, total mitigation potential is 24MtCO 2 eq which forest management and a
combination of conservation of existing protection forest and government action plans
account for 19MtCO 2 eq (79%) and 5MtCO 2 eq (21%), respectively.
The mitigation potential in AFOLU in the case of under 10US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC is
expected to be 35MtCO 2 eq which is approximately 66% and 8% of GHG emission in
energy sectors in 2000 (53MtCO 2 eq) (NC2) and 2030 (446MtCO 2 eq) (Hoa et al., 2010).
Midseason drainage and off-season rice straw amendment from agriculture sector and
forest management form LULUCF sector are expected to be great mitigation potentials in
AFOLU sector in Vietnam in 2030. This study’s result, we hope, can contribute to
develop a roadmap of action plan for sustainable agriculture, food safety assurance and
climate change response in Vietnam.
References
Hoa, N. T., Gomi, K., Matsuoka, Y., Fujino, J., Kainuma, M., Shrestha, R. M.:
Sustainable Low-carbon development towards 2030 in Vietnam, available at
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS, February 2010.
Vietnam Initial National Communication under the United Nations framework
convention on climate change (INC), 2003. Socialist republic of Vietnam. Ministry
of natural resources and environment.
Vietnam’s second National Communication to the United Nations framework convention
on climate change (NC2), 2010. Socialist republic of Vietnam. Ministry of natural
resources and environment.
General Statistical Office (GSO), 2009. Statistical yearbook. Statistical Publishing
House. Hanoi, Vietnam
FAO, 2011, FAOSTAT. Available at <http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx>
IRRI,
2011,
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World
Rice
Statistic,
Table
30. Available
at
<http://beta.irri.org/solutions/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=250>