Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Views on the Kyoto Protocol wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Canada wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Paper Title: Mitigation potential in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sectors towards sustainable agricultural growth in Vietnam Track Title: 5e Agriculture and Regional Development Names of Authors: Nguyen Thai Hoa1* Tomoko Hasegawa2 Yuzuru Matsuoka1 [email protected] or [email protected] Contact details of Main Authors: Affiliation of Main Author: 1 Department of Urban Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University. (C cluster, Kyoto-Daigaku-Katsura, Nishikyoku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan) 2 Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies and Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. (16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan) * Correspondence to: Nguyen Thai Hoa, PhD student in Department of Urban Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, C cluster, Kyoto-Daigaku-Katsura, Nishikyoku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan. To contribute the target cutting global GHG emissions in half by 2050, developing countries like Vietnam should actively develop and implement National Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) on a voluntary basis to ensure sustainable development. Moreover, as a country providing a fifth of world food exports and also a country among the few worst affected by climate change, Vietnam should address this challenge so as to contribute more to global food security. GHG emission and mitigation potential from energy sectors in Vietnam in 2030 has been done by Hoa et al., (2010). However, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors in Vietnam have been one of the largest sources of the anthropogenic GHG emission, contributing nearly 70% (Agriculture for 51% and Forestry and Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) for 19%) and 53% (Agriculture for 43% and LULUCF for 10%) of the emission in 1994 (INC, 2003) and 2000 (NC2, 2010), respectively. Therefore, reduction of emission resulted from agriculture activities has been considered it as a solution for a sustainable agricultural growth in Viet Nam. In this study, we developed a model named "AFOLU Emission Model" to estimate mitigation potentials as a result of profit maximization choice of technologies and assessed GHG mitigation technologies in AFOLU sector in Vietnam. AFOLU model is a multi-regional multi-sector bottom-up type model to estimate GHG emissions and mitigation potentials in AFOLU sector dealing with detailed mitigation technologies. We assume that producers (i.e. farmers) decide types of cultivated crops and livestock animals, amounts and ways of agricultural and woody production and combinations of mitigation technologies in order to maximize their annual profit. We do not consider that producers change their land use. Based on the concept, AFOLU model solves the profit maximization problem under several constraints for pre-determined demand of agricultural and woody products. This model may help analyze effect of policies such as emission/energy tax, subsidy, and regulation and so on. We calculated GHGs emission (CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O) from activities such as crop production, livestock animals and land-use change. GHGs emission sources are from livestock enteric fermentation, livestock manure, managed soils, paddy rice and land use change. The study estimated two scenarios in 2030 in Vietnam: (1) Scenario without lowcarbon countermeasures (hereinafter referred to as 2030BaU); (2) Scenario with introduction of low-carbon countermeasures (hereinafter referred to as 2030CM), which is adopted low-carbon countermeasures to reduce GHGs emission in 2030. Projection of Vietnam’s AFOLU sector development in 2030 is based on several sources such as NC2, GSO (2009), FAOSTAT (2011) and IRRI (2011). The finding shows that total GHG emission in 2030BaU is expected to be 61MtCO 2 eq. GHG emission from agriculture sector would be 81MtCO 2 eq and GHG emission/sink from LULUCF sector would be 43 and -63MtCO 2 eq, respectively. GHG emission sources of agriculture sector comprises managed soil (N 2 O), rice paddy (CH 4 ), livestock manure (N 2 O), livestock manure (CH 4 ) and enteric fermentation (CH 4 ). The largest share 34% of total GHG emission of agriculture sector comes from rice paddy, following by managed soil (31%), enteric fermentation (22%) and livestock manure (13%). We estimated GHG mitigation potentials by countermeasures under wide range of Allowable Additional Costs (AAC) for GHG emission mitigation in 2030. Mitigation potentials in AFOLU in 2030 would be 19, 35, 60 and 68MtCO 2 eq in the case of under 0, 10, 100 and over 100US$/tCO 2 eq of AAC, respectively. In the case of under 10US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC, midseason drainage (teq402) and off-season rice straw amendment are expected to reduce 16MtCO 2 eq, corresponding approximately 60% of mitigation potential of agriculture sector. GHG mitigation from rice paddy is expected to greatly contribute to reduce large amount of GHG emission in agriculture sector in Vietnam. In livestock sector, replacement of roughage with concentrates; dome digester, cooking fuel and light have high economic effects. These countermeasures in the case of under 10US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC can reduce altogether 6.0MtCO 2 eq which account for halving 10 % for each of mitigation potential in the agriculture sector in 2030. Amount of GHG reduction from these two countermeasures remains the same in the case of under 100US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC. In managed soils, split fertilization/optimized timing of fertilizers and sub-optimal fertilizer application are chosen to reduce 1 and 4MtCO 2 eq at under 10US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC, respectively. In the case of cost at most 0US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC, no regret technology, total mitigation potential of agriculture sector would be 19MtCO 2 eq. At over 100US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC, expensive countermeasures such as daily spread of manure (teq204), slow-release fertilizer and organic soils/restoration are expected to additionally reduce emissions. In LULUCF sector, forest management, conservation of existing protection forest and government action plans (plantation, protection and conservation of forest) are expected to reduce 1, 2 and 5MtCO 2 eq, respectively, in 2030 under 10US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC. However, at over 100US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC, total mitigation potential is 24MtCO 2 eq which forest management and a combination of conservation of existing protection forest and government action plans account for 19MtCO 2 eq (79%) and 5MtCO 2 eq (21%), respectively. The mitigation potential in AFOLU in the case of under 10US$/tCO 2 eq of ACC is expected to be 35MtCO 2 eq which is approximately 66% and 8% of GHG emission in energy sectors in 2000 (53MtCO 2 eq) (NC2) and 2030 (446MtCO 2 eq) (Hoa et al., 2010). Midseason drainage and off-season rice straw amendment from agriculture sector and forest management form LULUCF sector are expected to be great mitigation potentials in AFOLU sector in Vietnam in 2030. This study’s result, we hope, can contribute to develop a roadmap of action plan for sustainable agriculture, food safety assurance and climate change response in Vietnam. References Hoa, N. T., Gomi, K., Matsuoka, Y., Fujino, J., Kainuma, M., Shrestha, R. M.: Sustainable Low-carbon development towards 2030 in Vietnam, available at http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS, February 2010. Vietnam Initial National Communication under the United Nations framework convention on climate change (INC), 2003. Socialist republic of Vietnam. Ministry of natural resources and environment. Vietnam’s second National Communication to the United Nations framework convention on climate change (NC2), 2010. Socialist republic of Vietnam. Ministry of natural resources and environment. General Statistical Office (GSO), 2009. Statistical yearbook. Statistical Publishing House. Hanoi, Vietnam FAO, 2011, FAOSTAT. Available at <http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx> IRRI, 2011, IRRI World Rice Statistic, Table 30. Available at <http://beta.irri.org/solutions/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=250>