Download Energy Security

A Clean, Safe and Reliable
Baseload Energy System
3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Energy Systems
Kyoto University, Japan
August 31, 2006
Darel Preble
Chair, Space Solar Power Workshop
www.sspi.gatech.edu
[email protected]
April 30,2004
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Energy & Environment Overview
•
•
Global Oil (~hydrocarbons) production peak
War & Terrorism with energy component
•
Micro Global Climate Change - Food
•
Macro Global Climate Change - Weather
-- Both directly connected to rising carbon
dioxide from fossil fuel burning
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“World oil production is at or near its peak and current
world demand exceeds the supply.”
“Saudi Arabia is considered the bellwether nation for
oil production and has not increased production since
April 2003.”
- “Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations”, by D. Fournier and E. Westervelt,
September 2005, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Research and Development Center
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/files/2005-09_US_Army_Corps_of_Engineers_Energy_Trends.pdf
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“Once worldwide petroleum production peaks,
geopolitics and market economics will result in
even more significant price increases and security
risks.
“Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.”
- ibid
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“The problem is refineries are not prepared to take
the oil that is available today. They need to make
investments to handle sour oil.”
- Edmund Daukoru, President of OPEC and Minister for Petroleum
Resources in Nigeria, http://www.peakoil.net/OilSummit2006.html
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“Peak oil is not a theory; 33 out of 48 of the largest oil
producing countries have hit peak. It will require more
than a decade to transition our civilization away from our
heavy dependence on oil. Nothing close to the efforts
envisaged have yet begun.
- Testimony by Robert Hirsch, SAIC, at the Pentagon and U.S. Congressional Committee
on Energy and Commerce hearing, from the "Hirsch Report", commissioned by the
Department of Energy http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/hearings/12072005Hearing1733/hearing.htm and
"Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management
www.netl.doe.gov/otiic/World_Oil_Issues/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
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Some say we are at peak oil now. Some say it is
years away. Regardless of which is true, we need to
quickly prepare for “demand destruction” - when
rising oil prices and declining supply will slowly
reduce oil demand - consumers from the market.
These are typically transportation of people to
work and goods to market. Electrification of
transportation is necessary - which Japan has done
more fully than any other industrial nation.
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Mexico’s Super giant field Cantarell is in Decline
Pemex CEO says production will fall without massive help
to develop Ku-Maloob-Zaap, a heavy crude and/or
Chicontepec with small oil pockets within fractured rock.
Developing Chicontepec requires $38 billion to drill
20,000 wells, more than Pemex has drilled in 70 years.
(With drilling technology Pemex doesn’t have.) Mexico’s
Congress refuses to allow private investment.
•
- “Pemex Oil Output to Drop Without Private Investment” March 30 (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aiCFqPwH6eo4
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China passed Japan as the #2 world oil importer in 2004.
Global oil demand is surging. China burns more coal than the US.
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Welcome to the new Cold War
A bitter pricing dispute with Ukraine disrupted Russia's naturalgas supplies to Europe, fueling fears over Moscow's growing
clout as an energy supplier to Europe. Doubts about Russia's
reliability and intentions as an energy supplier dominated the
European press. "Welcome to the new Cold War," wrote the
London Times, describing Moscow's leading role as energy
supplier "Russia's most powerful weapon in its post-Soviet
arsenal.1"
[1] “Gas price dispute worries Europeans” by Andrew Borowiec and David Sands, January 4, 2006 The
Washington Times www.washtimes.com/world/20060103-103729-1692r.htm
Some Peak Oil links :
Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)
http://www.peakoil.net/
Energy Bulletin (ODAC)
http://www.energybulletin.net/
Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC)
http://www.odac-info.org/
Matthew Simmons
http://www.simmonscointl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
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Increasing levels of CO2 are
impacting
all
ecosystems.
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Ocean pH has become 30% more acidic. This affects
calcification by organisms including phytoplankton and
zooplankton, a major food source for fish and other
animals.
- "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide", page vi, Royal Society Policy:
www.royalsoc.ac.uk
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At our current rate of increase CO2 levels will be
doubled by mid-century. How are, and will, such
changes impact us?
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Using Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment
(FACE) experiments to create doubled CO2
environments, impact on plants can be measured
and predicted accurately :
April
30,2004
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Power Workshop
Harshaw
Experimental Forest nearSpace
Rhinelander,
http://oden.nrri.umn.edu/factsii/
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Plant-available nitrogen
decreases 40 to 50 % under
elevated carbon dioxide ...
Resulting in reduced nutrition from
forage and grasses grown under
doubled CO2 .
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Ruminants, including
cattle, sheep, oxen,
buffalo, deer, etc.,
are the source of nearly
all the milk and half the
meat the world eats.
They will gain weight
more slowly under under
doubled CO2 »»
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Kansas State University http://spuds.agron.ksu.edu/gainco2.gif
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Nutrition from grains drops - wheat
Rice and wheat, the top grains in the world, both decline in
nutritional value based on testing under elevated CO2.
Wheat grown at doubled CO2 declines in protein content by
9-13%. Wheat grown at high CO2 produces poorer dough
of lower extensibility and decreased loaf volume. Hence,
for bread making, the quality of flour, produced from
wheat grain developed at high temperatures and in elevated
CO2, degrades.
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Nutrition from grains drops - rice
“The nutritive value of rice was also changed at high CO2 due
to a reduction in grain nitrogen and, therefore, protein
concentration.” The protein content of rice declines under
combined increases of temperature and CO2.
Iron and zinc concentrations in rice, important for human
nutrition, would be lower.
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Wild Bees And The Flowers They
Pollinate Are Disappearing
Together
An international team of researchers from the UK,
the Netherlands and Germany compiled
biodiversity records for 100s of sites, and found
that bee diversity fell in almost 80% of them. Over
the last 25 years, many bee species are declining
or have become extinct. Plant declines closely
mirrored those of their pollinators.
Researchers were shocked by decline in plants as
well as bees. If this pattern is replicated elsewhere,
the 'pollinator services' we take for granted could
be at risk.“, said Dr Koos Biesmeijer, Univ of
Leeds.
The economic value of crop pollination worldwide
is between £20 and 50 billion each year. Science
(21 July 2006)
Field scabious
(Photo: Gérard Minet)
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/07/060721200158.htm
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Macro Global Climate Change
Large scale climate changes:
• drought
• floods
heat waves
severe storms
are immense problems to forecast or model. Where does
“regular weather” end and climate changed weather begin?
“Abrupt climate change” is a growing and poorly
understood concern.
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Global Ocean Slowing –
Temporary or Increasing?
Much of the ocean water in the high latitudes of the North
and South Atlantic has grown fresher over the last fifty years,
as tropical Atlantic waters became dramatically saltier. These
were due to evaporation rates over the tropical Atlantic
increasing by 5% - 10 over the last 40 yrs.
“The ocean current that gives western Europe its relatively
balmy climate is stuttering, raising fears that it might fail
entirely and plunge the continent into a mini ice age. A study of
ocean circulation in the North Atlantic found a 30% reduction in
the warm currents that carry water north from the Gulf Stream.”
- "Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age" by Fred Pearce, Nature (vol 438, p 655)
www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8398 See also
www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/viewArticle.do?id=9206
www.mbl.edu/inside/what/news/press_releases/2006_pr_08_24.html
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Source: (Broecker, 1995) “Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises”,
National
Council. - makes
London
April Research
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Power warmer
Workshop than NY
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More Bigger Hurricanes
The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has
doubled over the past 36 years, even though the total number of
hurricanes has dropped since the 1990s. The only region in the
world experiencing more hurricanes and tropical cyclones
overall is the North Atlantic, where they have become more
numerous and longer-lasting, especially since 1995.
The shift occurred as global sea surface temperatures have
increased over the same period.
– “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment”, by P. J.
Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, Science, 16 September 2005: Vol. 309. no. 5742, pp. 1844 –
1846 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844 and
www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/hurricanestudy.shtml See also http://www.gatech.edu/newsroom/release.php?id=898
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Global Dimming
Increased evaporation rates also increase cloud cover.
Scientists have measured the loss of sunlight at about 2-3% per
decade during much of the last half of the twentieth century.
Concentrated at northern and mid latitudes, published estimates
of the global average value are:
• 5.3% (9 W/m²) over 1958-85 (Stanhill and Moreshet, 1992)
• 2%/decade over 1964–93 (Gilgen et al, 1998)
• 2.7%/decade (total 20 W/m²) up to 2000 (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001)
• 4% over 1961-1990 (Liepert 2002)[i]
[i] “Global Dimming II” 19 Jan 2005, Guest commentary on BBC documentary on "Global Dimming" aired
on January 13th 2005 by Beate Liepert, LDEO, Columbia University
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=110 last accessed 3/22/06
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“Human activities are increasingly altering the Earth's climate.
Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural
influences cannot explain the rapid increase in global
near-surface temperatures observed during the second half of
the 20th century. Research indicates that increased levels of
carbon dioxide will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to
thousands of years. ...
“Scientific research provides a basis for mitigating the harmful
effects of global climate change through decreased human
influences, technological advancement, ...
- adopted by the Council, American Geophysical
Union, December, 2003
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“The costs of natural disasters, aggravated by global
warming, threaten to spiral out of control, forcing the
human race into a catastrophe of its own making”. The
economic costs of such disasters threaten to double to $150
billion a year in 10 years, hitting insurers with $30-40
billion in claims, or the equivalent of one World Trade
Centre attack annually.
"There is a danger that human intervention will accelerate and
intensify natural climate changes to such a point that it will
become impossible to adapt our socio-economic systems in
time. The human race can lead itself into this climatic
catastrophe -- or it can avert it.”
- World's second-largest reinsurer, Swiss Re,
Geneva (Reuters) March 3, 2004
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“2005 was marked by record losses from hurricanes in the
North Atlantic, with insured losses exceeding US$ 83
billion and about $350 billion dollars of uninsured
economic loss, e.g., including lost profits, lost business
opportunities, etc.
Florida largest property insurer, State Farm Insurance, raised
their average hurricane rates from $1,733 to $3,101 this
year.
- “Hurricanes – More intense, more frequent, more expensive Insurance in a time of changing risks”
Munich Re and American Re, (The 2005 hurricane season) April 2006, page 18,
http://www.munichre.com/publications/302-04891_en.pdf?rdm=1825
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In Summary
• Oil production slowly declines as oil prices set record highs
against roaring demand, triggering other price increases.
Declining oil stocks intensify global tensions.
• Production of nutritious food is very slowly declining, similar
to Biosphere II. Many agricultural regions experiencing
increasing drought. Water for irrigation is in short supply.
Fertilizer, essential to maintaining nutritious crops becomes more
expensive as natural gas and electricity rise in cost.
• Global Ocean Circulation has begun slowing, warping our
climate further.
• Energy alternatives reveal SSP to be key energy solution
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Conservation & more efficient
technology could help:
Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel for
transportation are the largest oil
users.
Global oil usage is inefficient,
producing more waste heat and
injecting more CO2 into the
atmosphere per unit of work
than any other fossil fuel.
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So conservation and more efficient
technology is important, but not enough.
Instant on water heaters, high
efficiency refrigerators,..
Cutting oil usage with
carpooling, hybrid cars, light rail
and bicycles would help.
Switzerland survived a six-year
complete oil embargo during
World War II with electrified
transportation. Transportation is
the largest and least efficient
primary energy user.
http://www.energybulletin.net/14492.html.
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Generous Federal and state subsidies and incentives for
many types of renewable energy. These are summarized
by state at the Database of State Incentives for Renewable
Energy:
http://www.dsireusa.org/
These efforts are ineffectual - they won’t get the job
done.
The EIA forecasts no impact – no decline - in CO2
emissions as a result of current policies through 2025.
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Nuclear Proliferation … and war?
Iran said it could defeat any American military action over
its controversial nuclear drive. The United States accuses
Iran of using an atomic energy drive as a mask for
weapons development. US news reports said President
George W. Bush's administration was refining plans for
preventive strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Iran announced it had successfully enriched uranium to
make nuclear fuel, despite a UN Security Council demand
for the work to be halted by April 28.
- “Iran issues stark military warning to United States”, April 15, 2006 Copyright AFP 2005, AFP
With SSP -- that nuclear power plant 93 million
miles away
nuclear waste problems
nuclear fuel supply worries
nuclear proliferation problems
Evaporate ..
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SPS requires no fuel and has no operations personnel –
it is an antenna – with farms underneath.
It is the cleanest source of virtually unlimited baseload
energy.
SSP is available 99% of the year at GSO.
Baseload nuclear or coal plants are available only 90%.
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Fossil Fuel
Clean Safe
Reliable
Baseload
No Yes How Long?
Yes
Nuclear
Wind Power
Ground Solar
Hydro
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
SSP
Yes
Yes
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Fuel??
Yes
No
No
No
No
No; drought; complex
scheduling
Yes
Space Solar Power Workshop
Yes
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2002
2005
Space Goal
32%
35%
Build satellites in Earth orbit to collect solar energy to beam to utilities
on Earth
23%
17%
Develop the technology to deflect asteroids or comets that might
destroy the Earth
13%
10%
No Opinion
4%
10%
Send humans to Mars
2%
7%
Search for life on other planets
6%
7%
Build a human colony in space
3%
6%
Develop a passenger rocket to send tourists into space
5%
4%
Build a base on the moon for humans to use for moon exploration
11%
2%
None of the above, we should stop spending money on space
1%
2%
None of the above
Source: Matula, Thomas L and Karen A. Loveland. " Public Attitudes toward Different Space Goals: Building Public
Support for the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) " in the Proceedings of Space 2006: The 10th International
Conference on Engineering, Construction, and Operations in Space, Houston, TX, March 5-8, 2006.
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If we started now could we build SSP in time to
mitigate most? of the problems mentioned?..
The technology to build an SSPS system is
available now.
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No company(s) or agency(s), however, is prepared to assume
the immense financial risk of initiating construction of an
SSPS.
There are simply too many engineering, financial, regulatory
and managerial risks for any group we have been able to
identify to undertake SSP today.
But this road has been traveled many times before ...
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As we detailed last year, there is a tried and true vehicle,
that could initiate SSP construction today.
A private Congressionally chartered corporation has all
the requisite advantages. Comsat Corp., chartered in 1962,
opened space for communication satellites - in a time when
we knew almost nothing about space, rockets or the space
communications business. The Sunsat Act would
accomplish the same task for power satellites.
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Thank you for the privilege of speaking to you today about
the need for Space Solar Power.
The tremendous promise of Space Solar Power for the
entire world makes your work important.
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