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AP Statistics the top 10 phrases to use in your answers ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Bracketed words/phrases indicate that a choice of one of them is needed Underlined words/phrases indicate that context is needed (substitute the actual variable(s) from the problem) Phrases 1 – 4 : linear regression correlation between 2 quantitative variables ( r ): “ There is a [ weak / moderate / strong ] [ positive / negative ] linear association between explanatory variable and response variable.“ coefficient of determination ( r2 ): “ x percent of the variation in response variable can be explained by the approximate linear relationship with explanatory variable.“ slope of the LSRL ( b1=b in calculator ): “ For every 1 unit increase in the explanatory variable, our model predicts an average increase of y units in the response variable.“ y-intercept of the LSRL ( b0=a in calculator ): “ At an explanatory variable value of 0 units, our model predicts a response variable value of y units.“ (also comment on whether this value makes any sense) Phrases 5 – 6 : confidence intervals confidence interval: “ I am confidence level% confident that the true population [ proportion / mean ] of variable is between lower bound and upper bound.“ - or “ I am confidence level% confident that the interval ( lower bound , upper bound ) captures the true population [ proportion / mean ] of variable.“ confidence level: “ If this [ poll / experiment ] were repeated many times, then about confidence level% of the resulting confidence intervals would contain the true [ proportion / mean ] of variable.“ Phrases 7 – 10 : hypothesis tests stating the null hypothesis ( H0 ): “Null hypothesis: The [ proportion / mean ] of variable1 is not different than the hypothesized value (or the [ proportion / mean ] of variable2 ).“ The statement of the null hypothesis can differ depending on the problem but it should indicate that there is no difference or no change (for example, with chi-squared test of independence, the null hypothesis is that the two variables are independent or not dependent); try to use the word NOT. meaning of the p-value: “This p-value of p-value% is the probability of getting a result as extreme or more extreme than the one observed if the null hypothesis is correct.“ reject the null hypothesis: “Since the p-value of p-value% is less than the significance level% level of significance, there is convincing evidence that the null hypothesis should be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis.“ fail to reject the null hypothesis: “Since the p-value of p-value% is not less than the significance level% level of significance, there is not convincing evidence that the null hypothesis should be rejected.“