Download Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity

Artificial Intelligence
and the Singularity
piero scaruffi
www.scaruffi.com
October 2014 - Revised 2016
"The person who says it cannot be done should not
interrupt the person doing it" (Chinese proverb)
Piero Scaruffi
• piero scaruffi
[email protected]
[email protected]
Olivetti AI Center, 1987
Piero Scaruffi
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Cultural Historian
Cognitive Scientist
Blogger
Poet
www.scaruffi.com
www.scaruffi.com
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This is Part 2
• See http://www.scaruffi.com/singular for the index of this
Powerpoint presentation and links to the other parts
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Classic A.I. - The Age of Expert Systems
Modern A.I. - The Age of Deep Learning
Theory: Knowledge-based Systems and Neural Networks
Robots
Bionics
Singularity
Critique
The Future
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Modern A.I.
The Age of Deep Learning
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Artificial Intelligence
1980: Kunihiko Fukushima’s “Neocognitron”: the
birth of convolutional neural networks
Based on the cat’s visual system:
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Artificial Intelligence
1982: John Hopfield’s simulation of annealing
1983: Geoffrey Hinton's and Terry Sejnowski's Boltzmann
machine for unsupervised learning
1985: Judea Pearl's "Bayesian Networks"
1986: Paul Smolensky's Restricted Boltzmann machine
1986: David Rumelhart’s “Parallel Distributed Processing”
Rummelhart network
Neurons arranged in layers, each neuron
linked to neurons of the neighboring
layers, but no links within the same layer
Requires training with supervision
Hopfield networks
Multidirectional data flow
Total integration between input and
output data
All neurons are linked between
themselves
Trained with or without supervision7
Artificial Intelligence
1989: Yann LeCun 's second generation Convolutional
Neural Networks
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Artificial Intelligence
1989: Yann LeCun 's second generation Convolutional
Neural Networks
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Artificial Intelligence
RNN and LSTM
• 1992: Hava Siegelmann's and Eduardo
Sontag's Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs)
• 1997: Sepp Hochreiter's and Jeurgen
Schmidhuber's Long Short Term Memory
(LSTM) model
Artificial Intelligence
Deep Learning
2006: Geoffrey Hinton's Deep Belief
Networks
2007: Yoshua Bengio's Stacked
Autoencoders
Deep
Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Deep Learning
Michael Jordan
Andrew Ng
Hinton Lecun Bengio
Artificial Intelligence
Kunihiko Fukushima: Japan
Hava Siegelmann: Israel
Sepp Hochreiter‘: Germany
Yann LeCun: France
Geoffrey Hinton: Britain/ Canada
Yoshua Bengio: France/ Canada
Andrew Ng: China
Daniela Rus: Romania
Feifei Li: China
Sebastian Thrun: Germany
DeepMind: Britain/ New Zealand
Ilya Sutskever: Russia
The leader in modern AI
Artificial Intelligence
Deep Learning
• Scales well with memory/data/computation
• Solves the representation learning problem
• State-of-the-art for images, audio,
language, ...
Artificial Intelligence
Supervised learning
• Learning by imitation
• Only as good as the expert that you imitate
• The learned skills cannot be applied to
other fields
Artificial Intelligence
Reinforcement Learning
• Unsupervised learning
• A computational approach to goal-directed
learning from interaction between an active
decision-making agent and its environment
Harry Klopf:
• Learning what to do so as to maximize a
“The Hedonistic
reward
Neuron” (1982)
• The four pillars of reinforcement learning: a
policy, a reward function, a value function,
and a model of the environment
• Learning by self-play
Andrew Barto (1981)
Richard Sutton (1981)
Artificial Intelligence
Reinforcement Learning
• Policy-based RL. Search directly for the
policy achieving maximum future reward
• Value-based RL. Estimate the maximum
value achievable under any policy
• Model-based RL. Build a transition model
of the environment
Artificial Intelligence
Deep Reinforcement Learning
• Applying DL to RL
• Use a deep network to represent value
function and/or policy and/or model
• Optimise the value function and/or policy
and/or model
• Deep Q-Networks (DQN) provide a stable
solution to deep value-based RL (Volodymyr
Mnih, 2013)
Artificial Intelligence
Deep Learning mimics the workings of the
brain: the audiovisual cortex works in
multiple hierarchical stages
Artificial Intelligence
Genealogy of Intelligent Machines
Logic
Hydraulic machines
Hilbert
Steam engines
Turing Machine
Cybernetics
Computers
Neural networks
Expert Systems
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Artificial Intelligence
1997: IBM's "Deep Blue" chess machine beats the world's chess
champion, Garry Kasparov
2011: IBM's Watson debuts on a tv show
2014: Vladimir Veselov's and Eugene Demchenko's program Eugene
Goostman passes the Turing test
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Artificial Intelligence
2014: Vladimir Veselov's and Eugene
Demchenko's program Eugene Goostman,
which simulates a 13-year-old Ukrainian
boy, passes the Turing test at the Royal
Society in London
2014: Alex Graves, Greg Wayne and Ivo
Danihelka publish a paper on "Neural
Turing Machines"
2014: Jason Weston, Sumit Chopra and
Antoine Bordes publish a paper on
"Memory Networks"
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Artificial Intelligence
2014: Microsoft demonstrates a real-time
spoken language translation system
2014: IBM’s TrueNorth processor
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Artificial Intelligence
• Deep Reinforcement Learning
– Fanuc/ Preferred Networks robot (2015)
– Alpha Go
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2010s
• Facebook (2010): face recognition
• FindFace (2016): identify the pictures of strangers
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2010s
• Conversational computing
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Siri (2011)
GoogleNow (2012)
Amazon Alexa (2014)
Microsoft Tay (2016)
…
Apple 2011
(mandatory Hollywood
movie for AI presentation!)
Microsoft,2016
Stanley Kubrick (1968)
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“2001: A Space Odyssey”
2010s
• Google (2012): 1.7 billion connections
(and 16,000 processors) learn to
recognize cats in YouTube videos
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2010s
• IDSIA (2013)
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2010s
2014: Image captioning
Fei-Fei Li's on algorithm to describe photos (Stanford,
2014)
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2010s
2015: Convolutional net trained to interpret images
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2010s
• Automatic translation
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2010s
2015: Microsoft’s 152-layer neural network
2016: Nvidia’s DGX-1: 8 GPUs + software to
train neural networks
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2010s
Art
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2010s
• Multi-billion dollar investments in artificial
intelligence and robotics in the 2010s
– Amazon (Kiva, 2012)
– Google (Neven, 2006; Industrial Robotics, Meka, Holomni, Bot
& Dolly, DNNresearch, Schaft, Bost, DeepMind, Redwood
Robotics, 2013-14)
– IBM (AlchemyAPI, 2015; Watson project)
– Microsoft (Project Adam, 2014)
– Apple (Siri, 2011; Perceptio and VocalIQ, 2015; Emotient, 2016)
– Facebook (Face.com, 2012)
– Yahoo (LookFlow, 2013)
– Twitter (WhetLab, 2015)
– Salesforce (MetaMind, 2016)
– Samsung (Viv Labs, 2016)
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2010s
• DeepMind (2010): machine learning
(acquired by Google in 2014)
• Vicarious
• Sentient: machine learning
• Wise.io
• Saffron
• Narrative Science
• CrowdAI
• …
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2010s
• Investment in AI startups in 2014: $230 million
• Investment in AI startups in 2015: $128 million
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2015
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2015
• Between 2010 and 2015 over 45 companies and
corporate VC arms have invested in AI startups
(top of the list: Bloomberg, Samsung, Rakuten
• Investment in AI startups in 2014: $230 million
• Investment in AI startups in 2015: $128 million
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The 2010s
• Computer Go/Weichi
– 2009: Fuego Go (Monte Carlo program by Univ.
of Alberta) beats Zhou Junxun
– 2010: MogoTW (Monte Carlo program developed
in 2008 by a Euro-Taiwanese team) beat Catalin
Taranu
– 2012: Tencho no Igo/ Zen (Monte Carlo program
developed by Yoji Ojima in 2005) beat Takemiya
Masaki
– 2013: Crazy Stone (Monte Carlo program by
Remi Coulom in 2005) beat Yoshio Ishida
– Pachi (open-source Monte Carlo program by Petr
Baudis)
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The 2010s
2016: Google/DeepMind’s AlphaGo beats the
Go champion Se-dol Lee
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2010s
• Evolution Strategies
The 2010s
2016: Toyota’s self-teaching car (deep
reinforcement learning)
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2010s
• Open-source platforms for deep learning
– Google’s Tensor Flow: scalable
– Torch (New York University): flexible
– Caffe (Pieter Abbeel's group at UC Berkeley)
– Theano (Univ of Montreal, Canada): easiest
to install
– Chainer (Preferred Networks, Japan):
flexible
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2010s
• Dangers of A.I.
– Stephen Hawking & Bill Gates
– Elon Musk (OpenAI, 2016)
– Asilomar Conference (2017)
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Do robots steal our jobs?
• The countries with the highest number of robots…
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Do robots steal our jobs?
• … are also the countries with the lowest
unemployment
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Next…
• See http://www.scaruffi.com/singular for the
index of this Powerpoint presentation and
links to the other parts
www.scaruffi.com
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