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Enhancing Habitat Diversity: turning the tide on natterjack population decline at Caerlaverock National Nature Reserve. The saltmarsh or ‘merse’ at Caerlaverock National Nature Reserve on the Solway Firth is a soft low-lying section of coastline vulnerable to rising sea level. Home to the only population of natterjack toads in Scotland, there is some concern amongst conservationists about the effects of sea level rise on the long-term survival of the toad colonies. Natterjacks thrive in naturally dynamic coastal habitats, but also have some very specific habitat requirements. Their coastal marsh habitat has already come under pressure from changes in coastal land use, and across Britain numbers have dwindled as a result. Sea level rise and the human response to the threat of coastal flooding are likely to be further drivers of habitat change. Caerlaverock National Nature Reserve team have been working with others to better understand the habitat requirements of natterjacks so they can enhance and create optimum habitat, giving them the best possible chance to adapt to the threat of rising sea levels. 1 1. The climate risk: sea level rise The latest projections of global sea level rise suggest that even under a highly optimistic emissions scenario we might see over half a meter of sea-level rise by 2100 (figure 1), with serious impacts on many coastal areas, including coastal erosion and an increased risk of flooding. Figure 1. Past and future global sea-level rise. For the past, proxy data are shown in light purple and tide gauge data in blue. For the future, the IPCC projections for very high emissions (red scenario) and very low emissions (blue scenario) are shown. Source: Church et al, (2013) p1204 Sea level rise affects all parts of Scotland’s coast and, crucially, now outpaces land uplift on most of the Scottish coast (Rennie and Hansom, 2011). Long term rates of sea level rise vary between 0.5 and 2 mm/yr; however, recent short term rates are higher (up to 6 mm/yr). There is no way of knowing if the recent increase is temporary or likely to continue at this rate into the future. The impact of coastal flooding is already worsening in Scotland (Ball et al, 2008), with low-lying ‘soft’ coasts such as the Uists, parts of the Orkney Isles and some inner firths such as the Solway, particularly vulnerable (figure 2). 2 Figure 2. Map showing the distribution of low-lying coastal areas in Scotland. Caerlaverock NNR lies in a vulnerable part of the Solway Firth. Caerlaverock National Nature Reserve on the Solway Firth (figure 2) is a soft low-lying coastline dominated by saltmarsh. Uncertainty over the response of some coastal habitats to sea level rise makes it tricky to predict how species that live there will fare. Coastal erosion, increased salt water inundation and flooding associated with sea level rise at Caerlaverock could threaten one of our rarest species – the natterjack toad Bufo calamita (figure 3). Figure 3. The natterjack toad Bufo calamita 3 Natterjack toads thrive in habitats where things change constantly, and as a result their population dynamics are typically ‘boom and bust.’ In Britain they occur almost exclusively on coastal dunes, upper saltmarshes (or ‘merses’ as they are known locally at Caerlaverock) and inland heaths. Between the late 1800s and 1970, they vanished from 70–80% of their British range, primarily as a consequence of habitat change (Beebee, 1976; 1977). In many coastal areas land claim for agriculture was the main driver of habitat change. Caerlaverock is home to the most northerly population of natterjack toads in Britain, occurring as isolated populations along an 8 km stretch of low-lying coastal marsh. Research conducted in 2012 by Amphibian and Reptile Conservation (ARC) suggested that natterjack toads in Scotland number only around 250 individuals, making them rarer than the Scottish wildcat (P. Minting pers. comm). The net effect of climate change on natterjacks is unclear – in the south of England, a 30 year study of the toads found that warmer May’s have a positive effect on the species numbers (Beebee, 2011). Natterjacks at Caerlaverock favour the upper saltmarshes where fresh and salt water interact, since they are dependent on ephemeral ‘brackish’ pools in which they breed. The occasional salt water inundation keeps the spawn safe from predators and competitors who cannot tolerate salty conditions. At Caerlaverock, any benefits of warmer temperatures may be offset by the threat of rising sea level or storm surges causing existing breeding pools to become too saline for spawn to survive. Some saltmarshes appear to be keeping pace with sea level rise by accreting or ‘growing’ vertically (e.g. Teasdale et al, 2011; Mossman et al, 2013), but there is uncertainty about how widespread this response is. Although increased storm frequency has not yet been identified (Comhairle nan eilean Sar, 2012) it is expected to occur (Lowe et al, 2009). Where the habitat can’t adapt quickly enough to the anticipated rising sea levels over the coming decades, the same storms could flood further inland as they over-ride a higher mean sea level (Dixon and Tawn, 1997). Without the sediment supply to grow vertically, or space to shift inland due to farmland or sea defences, there could be a reduction in the freshwater dominated areas of marshes crucial to natterjack survival. We must also consider the human response to sea level rise, particularly the effects of changes in land management on the Solway’s natterjack toad population (figure 4). The combination of these ‘human’ pressures has undoubtedly been a far greater cause of natterjack habitat degradation to date than climate change, but this may change in the future. 4 ‘Human’ Threats Implications For Natterjacks Habitat fragmentation Natterjacks are unlikely to cross extensive areas of unsuitable habitat to move between their summer/winter habitat and breeding ponds Abandonment of traditional grazing practice Scrub encroachment and development of rank vegetation following abandonment can stabilise the habitat too much. Coastal Squeeze – loss of habitat Land claim of upper merses for more intensive agriculture, coastal development or hard coastal defences can all impede natural coastal processes of erosion and deposition of sands, muds, and interaction of fresh and salt water. Natterjacks depend on these dynamic processes. Recreational disturbance Dogs swimming in pools during breeding season can disturb breeding natterjacks. Modification of merse drainage Changes to tidal inundation regime through construction of embankments, and drainage channels can alter the balance of fresh and saltwater, rendering some areas unsuitable for natterjacks, or increasing suitability for predators. Figure 4. Summary of the ‘human’ threats to natterjacks in Scotland 2. Adaptation measure: enhancing habitat diversity The first step towards ‘future-proofing’ the vulnerable natterjack population at Caerlaverock is to understand what their optimum habitat is: –– –– –– –– open, un-shaded areas with extensive areas of un-vegetated or sparsely vegetated ground; vegetation with short sward to ensure presence of invertebrate prey; some shelter (often beneath rocks, or drystone walls); and un-shaded, ephemeral ponds with shallow, gradually shelving margins with few predators or competitors in which to breed. A small amount of salt water inundation also helps to kill off predators such as fish and larger aquatic invertebrates – which would otherwise eat the toads’ eggs and tadpoles. We can use the above information to help the vulnerable natterjack populations adapt to increasing human and climatic pressures facing their habitat, by creating or enhancing areas especially for them. 5 Habitat creation on farmland Aquatic habitat creation on farmlands immediately adjacent to the saltmarsh has been a key part of the management to date. By excavating shallow pools on farmland inland of the Reserve, the natterjacks can venture further inland to breed – something they may be forced to do in future in response to higher sea levels. Breeding pool management has been carried out on all the Solway colonies, with mixed results. Some natural pools have been slightly deepened, or ‘topped up’ so that they are less likely to dry out in warm periods, but care must be taken not to over-deepen and allow predators or competitors to colonise. Figure 5. Breeding pool creation and an existing pool. Breeding pool management is challenging for site mangers to get just right for the toads to breed in. 6 Ensuring the pools are maintained in the long-term is difficult, but Scottish Natural Heritage are continuing with their rolling programme to maintain the toad breeding pools on the Reserve, together with provision of grants to local landowners to create suitable pools for toads on land beyond. This attempts to revert the historical development (i.e. habitat loss) but also safeguards space for the natural processes, habitats and species to adapt (Brazier et al, 2012). Improved Terrestrial Habitat Natterjack toads need a short sward adjacent to their breeding pools for hunting. Terrestrial habitat management has included scrub clearance and some re-instatement of grazing. In late summer, once the toads have finished breeding, cattle are let into the areas around their pools. This keeps the grass short so the toads can forage for food, and it stops plant growth from smothering the shallow pools. Artificial refuges for the toads are also provided in strategic positions. Figure 6. Carefully managed cattle grazing at Caerlaverock NNR helps to keep a short sward for natterjack toads 3. Results: hope for long-term natterjack survival on the Solway Large species populations are likely to be more resilient than small ones, so boosting breeding success by focusing on the aquatic habitat seems logical. However, creation of more breeding pools alone is not enough to boost natterjack numbers in the long term. Doing so successfully requires close monitoring of pool conditions which is both highly interventionist and time-consuming. Many natterjack conservationists feel that we are running very fast to stand still! After many years of trial and error in creation and management of the toad’s aquatic habitat, plans are underway to create some new pools to replace those which have become over-deepened and unsuitable. On-going natterjack conservation involves working with others to improve terrestrial land management on the upper marshes. In the absence of grazing, marsh vegetation becomes too dense for natterjacks to hunt in, and also causes the marshes to stabilise. Natterjacks fare better where natural coastal processes are unhindered by artificial drainage, coastal defences and dense vegetation. Reserve staff are working hard with partner organisations and land owners to secure suitable long-term grazing for natterjack toads at Caerlaverock and beyond. 7 Darwin told us that variation is the raw material of adaptive change; and adaptive change is what enables an organism to thrive in unfamiliar conditions (Quammen, 2014). With this in mind, the Reserve’s long term goal to ensure a diverse, dynamic and well-connected mosaic of the toads favoured terrestrial and aquatic habitat is likely to be the best way to encourage their continued survival here. 4. Wider benefits Fortunately, the level of grazing on the Caerlaverock reserve required for natterjack toad conservation also suits the Barnacle geese who flock here in their thousands during the winter. Keeping the sward fit for grazing geese also encourages them to stay on the Reserve where visitors can see them, and helps relieve pressure from the surrounding farmland, where the geese might otherwise feed on developing winter cereal crops. Despite years of highly specialised species-focused conservation for natterjacks, it has become increasingly clear that alongside these specific measures, the species thrives best against a backdrop of natural coastal processes. Management at Caerlaverock aims to halt or reverse the loss of coastal habitats and features from coastal squeeze and to sustain and revitalise the natural coastal sedimentary processes – something we have shown is important for natterjack conservation but also for us! Soft coastal habitats such as saltmarsh, sand dunes and mudflats are our natural coastal defences; absorbing and dissipating the force of the sea and reducing the risk to people and development. Trying to stabilise inherently dynamic natural systems can do more harm than good. Ensuring that the natural processes continue to operate as sea levels rise, together with well managed grazing on the marshes should help to change the fortunes of one of our most vulnerable species, whilst at the same time helping to protect us from coastal flooding. 8 REFERENCES Ball T., A. Werrity R.W. Duck, A. Edwards, L. Booth & A.R. Black (2008) Coastal flooding in Scotland: A Scoping study - Technical Summary. SNIFFER. Final Report. FRM10), Beebee, T.J.C. 1976. The natterjack toad in the British Isles, a study of past and present status. British Journal of Herpetology 5 p 515-521. Beebee, T.J.C. 1977. Environmental change as a cause of natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) declines in Britain. Biological Conservation 11 p 87-102. Beebee, T.J.C (2011) Modelling factors affecting population trends in an endangered amphibian. Journal of Zoology 284, Issue 2 p 97-104. Brazier, V., P.M.C Bruneau, J.E Gordon, & A.F Rennie (2012) Making Space for Nature in a Changing Climate: The Role of Geodiversity in Biodiversity Conservation. Scottish Geographical Journal 128: 3-4 p 211-233. Dixon M.J & J.A Tawn (1997) Estimates of extreme sea conditions, spatial analyses for the UK coast. Final report. Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory. Report ID 112. Church, J.A., P.U. Clark, A. Cazenave, J.M. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M.A. Merrifield, G.A. Milne, R.S. Nerem, P.D. Nunn, A.J. Payne, W.T. Pfeffer, D. Stammer and A.S. Unnikrishnan, 2013: Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Lowe, J. A., T. Howard, A. Pardaens, J. Tinker, J. Holt, S. Wakelin, G. Milne, J. Leake, J. Wolf, K. Horsburgh, T. Reeder, G. Jenkins, J. Ridley, S. Dye, and S. Bradley (2009) UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. Comhairle nan Eilean Siar (2012) South Ford Hydrodynamic Study - Final Report. September 2012. Mossman, H.L., A. Grant and A. Davy (2013) Implications of climate change for coastal and inter-tidal habitats in the UK. Terrestrial biodiversity climate change impacts report card technical paper. Living With Environmental Change, Swindon. Quammen, D. (2014) Disease – the next big one. The Geographer. RSGS. Winter 2013-14 p 10-11. Rennie, A.F., and J.D Hansom (2011) Sea level trend reversal: land uplift outpaced by sea level rise on Scotland’s coast. Geomorphology 125 (1) p 193-202. Teasdale, P.A., P.F Collins, C.R Firth & A.B Cundy (2011) Recent estuarine sedimentation rates from shallow inter-tidal environments in western Scotland: implications for future sea-level trends and coastal wetland development. Quaternary Science Reviews 30 p 109-129. 9 For more information on Caerlaverock National Nature Reserve and its management, please visit http://www.nnr-scotland.org.uk/caerlaverock/ For more information on how SNH is helping nature adapt to climate change, please contact Christina Wood [email protected] or visit www.snh.gov.uk/climate-change/what-snh-is-doing/helping-nature-adapt/ www.snh.org.uk www.nnr-scotland.org.uk 10