Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Biodiversity Informatics and Prediction of Disease Dynamics
Document related concepts
Restoration ecology wikipedia , lookup
Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project wikipedia , lookup
Occupancy–abundance relationship wikipedia , lookup
Ecological economics wikipedia , lookup
Reconciliation ecology wikipedia , lookup
Biogeography wikipedia , lookup
Biodiversity action plan wikipedia , lookup
Transcript
Biodiversity Informatics and Prediction of Disease Dynamics A. Townsend Peterson Natural History Museum The University of Kansas Colleagues and Collaborators UNAM: Adolfo Navarro, Victor SanchezCordero, Enrique Martinez-Meyer (all UNAM), Jorge Soberon (UNAM-CONABIO), Janine Ramsey BRAZIL: Ricardo Scachetti (CRIA), Jane Costa (FIOCRUZ), Jeffrey Shaw (USP) USA: David Stockwell (SDSC), David Vieglais, Ed Wiley, Robert Anderson, Steve Egbert, Miguel Ortega-Huerta, Kris McNyset (all KU), Mark Benedict, Ben Beard, Jim Mills, Darin Carroll (CDC) Ecological Niche Concept The set of environmental conditions, resources, interactions, etc., in which a species is able to maintain populations without immigration Ecological Domain Geographical Domain project Essence of Ecological Niche Modeling Geographic Space Ecological Space ecological niche modeling Model of niche in ecological dimensions Note that there are fewer than 500 points … indeed, GARP works with excellent predictive ability for quite small samples precipitation occurrence points on native distribution temperature Projection back onto geography Native range prediction Invaded range prediction Factors that Limit Species’ Distributions History – Limited dispersal – Speciation – Extinction Ecology – Abiotic environment – Biotic environment Interactions – – – – Competition Predation Parasitism Mutualisms Predicting disease dynamics depends critically on ecological niches as longterm stable distributional constraints on species’ geographic potential West Nile Virus in the New World: Analysis of Transport Mechanisms West Nile Virus 1999 West Nile Virus 2000 West Nile Virus 2001 West Nile Virus Transport Mosquitomediated only Mosquitoand birdmediated Mosquito Distributions C. salinarius Culex pipiens C. restuans Culex Suitability Surface West Nile Virus 2000 West Nile Virus 2001 West Nile Virus Arrival Until 2000 Spread Without Birds Winter Destinations of NY Birds Spread With Birds Spread With Birds First Test Results Mosquito mediation Mosquitos and Birds Spring 2002 Successfully reconstructs mid-Atlantic disjunction, SE concentration, spread W to Rockies Filoviruses … Distribution of Filovirus Outbreaks Filovirus Outbreaks Filovirus Strain Distribution Omitting Most Divergent Filovirus (Marburg) Ecological Distribution of Ebola I All of Africa Annual mean precipitation 80 Availability Ebola 60 40 20 0 8 12 16 20 24 Annual mean temperature 28 32 Land Use / Land Cover Types: Proportion Predicted Appropriate for Ebola 0.60 0.50 Proportion 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Evergreen broadleaf forest Woodland Wooded grassland Closed shrubland Open shrubland Grassland Cropland Bare ground Ebola Reston Mammal Reservoir Identification Species Funisciurus anerythrus Funisciurus bayonii Funisciurus carruthersi Funisciurus congicus Funisciurus isabella Funisciurus lemniscatus Funisciurus leucogenys Funisciurus pyrropus Funisciurus substriatus Other Sciurinae IC ? 1 1 Zaire Marburg Sudan Reston 1 1 1 ? 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Bat Species Coinciding With African Ebola Eidolon helvum Epomophorus labiatus Epomops franqueti Hypsignathus monstrosus Micropteropus pusillus Rousettus aegyptiacus Rousettus angolensis Megaloglossus woermanni Coleura afra Saccolaimus peli Taphozous mauritianus Taphozous nudiventris Nycteris arge Nycteris grandis Nycteris hispida Nycteris intermedia Nycteris macrotis Nycteris major Nycteris nana Lavia frons Rhinolophus alcyone Rhinolophus fumigatus Rhinolophus landeri Hipposideros caffer Hipposideros commersoni Hipposideros cyclops Hipposideros fuliginosus Hipposideros ruber Kerivoula lanosa Chalinolobus poensis Chalinolobus variegatus Eptesicus capensis Eptesicus guineensis Eptesicus rendalli Eptesicus somalicus Eptesicus tenuipinnis Mimetillus moloneyi Myotis bocagei Myotis tricolor Pipistrellus nanus Pipistrellus rusticus Scotoecus albofuscus Scotoecus hirundo Scotophilus dinganii Scotophilus nigrita Scotophilus robustus Scotophilus viridis Miniopterus schreibersi Chaerephon bemmeleni Chaerephon pumila Mops brachypterus Mops condylurus Mops midas Mops nanulus Tadarida aegyptiaca Example Questions Emergence of visceral leishmaniasis as an urban disease in Brazil … which reservoir species are involved? Transmission of leprosy in tropical America … what is the role of armadillo distributions in determining case distribution? Risk analysis for hantavirus in Mexico … what is the best way to summarize and combine reservoir species distributions? Chagas disease … how does a triatomine Chagas vector make the shift from sylvatic to domestic environments? And many more … Ecological Niche Modeling and Diseases Large-scale ecological perspective on species’ distributions Tool for studying – – – – geographic distribution invasive potential effects of change complex distributional and geographic effects Permits reconstruction of disease dynamics based on the ecological requirements of component species Demonstrates the critical role that biodiversity informatics can play in many issues of interest and importance not just in BIOLOGY, but in public health and human welfare Thanks ... Any Questions? [email protected]
