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Early Warning Systems: Geological Hazards
Monitoring in New Zealand
Ken Gledhill
GeoNet Project Director
Chair, Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System
GNS Science, New Zealand
Presentation Outline
 New Zealand Tectonics and Geological
Hazards
 New Zealand GeoNet
 Earthquake Early
 Tsunami Early Warning
 GeoNet Rapid
 Conclusions
GNS Science
New Zealand’s tectonic setting
GNS Science
New Zealand Earthquakes
GNS Science
New Zealand GeoNet
is an integrated geological hazards monitoring and
data collection system. All data are freely available to
facilitate research and emergency response.
⇒  Stronger research capabilities
⇒  Enhanced community resilience
Real-time hazard monitoring
- Earthquakes
- Volcanic unrest
- Tsunami
- Land stability
- Land deformation
End users
- Emergency managers
- Scientific researchers
- Engineers
- Lifeline utility groups
- General public
GNS Science
GeoNet Sensor
Network
More than 500 sensor
sites (seismic and GPS)
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Monitoring
Earthquakes
GNS Science
Volcano Surveillance
GNS Science
Landslide Monitoring
GeoNet coordinates rapid
response teams that can
be deployed within 24
hours of a major
landslide
Young River, 2007
GNS Science
Tsunami Gauge
Network
GNS Science
Early Warnings in context
Three options for natural disaster risk reduction:
1. Modify the process
e.g. for tsunami restore dunes
2. Modify human activity
Land-use planning and building codes
Can in theory remove all risk
3. Accept the damage and warn people
Still allows residual risk,
hard to achieve high effectiveness
- Permanently-sustained community preparedness is needed
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Earthquake Early Warning
  At the current time earthquakes CANNOT be
predicted (time, place, size)
  Earthquake Early warning once the earthquake
rupture starts is possible for locations at some
distance from the earthquake (100s of km)
  Ironically, earthquake early warning works best at
locations which will not experience the greatest
shaking!
  Japan currently has an effective earthquake early
warning system
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Early Warning
Shaking
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GNS Science
Christchurch Earthquake
(22 February 2011)
 
Maximum acceleration of 2.2 g (vertical).
 
Rupture very close to city centre (with 10 km).
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Earthquake had a large thrust component, with no surface
rupture.
Energy very high for size of earthquake.
Rupture produced directional shaking towards the city
centre.
Rupture speed was close to shear-wave velocity.
Long return period of earthquake sequence (> 10,000
years).
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GNS Science
Emergency Response
  MCDEM (Civil Defence) Duty Officers were notified within minutes
(“Serious Page”) - at the same time as the GeoNet Duty Officers
  GeoNet Duty Officer confirmed a large earthquake near Christchurch
– significant damage expected
  This supported the early activation of the National Crisis Management
Centre (NCMC)
  GNS Science provided a Liaison Officer to the NCMC which assisted
MCDEM with immediate and forward response planning
  The free two-way flow of information was important for the
effectiveness of the response
  The working relationships (including MCDEM – GNS Science MoU)
were important
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Tsunami Forecasting – Pre-computed models
GNS Science
The DART Buoy coverage for tsunami en-route
to New Zealand
GNS Science
WebSIFT
GNS Science
GNS Science
 
Early years (Dino the dinosaur)
 
2005 Upper Hutt earthquakes
 
2010 Darfield Earthquake
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2011 Canterbury
10 hits/s
300 hits/s
5,000 hits/s
12,000 hits/s
GNS Science
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Saturday 4 September:
Sunday 5 September:
Monday 6 September:
Tuesday 7 September
Wednesday 8 September
15 million hits
19 million hits
40 million hits
50 million hits
64 million hits
GNS Science
Social Media (Facebook, Twitter)
  “Why is Geonet so slow. GRR”
  “Is geonet asleep? That shake should have woken them up.”
  “Come on Geonet hurry up. I want to know how big that
aftershock was”
  “Geonet is prob at the in-laws having Sunday lunch. Give 'em a
chance people”
  “oh okay :) where would we be without geonet!”
  “I’m pretty sure geonet Is almost as popular as Facebook now”
GNS Science
GeoNet Rapid (beta.geonet.org.nz)
GNS Science
GNS Science
Conclusions
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Because of our location on the plate boundary New Zealand
is subject to all major geological hazards.
New Zealand has benefitted from having an integrated
geological hazards monitoring and data collection system.
Recent experience in New Zealand has highlighted the threat
from long return period but high impact geological events.
For tsunami using pre-defined coastal zones and threat
levels which link into planed evacuation zones is important.
Being prepared with good monitoring and early warning
capabilities and good relationship with Civil Defence
organisations is important
International cooperation and collaboration is important –
geological hazards are an international problem.
GNS Science
www.geonet.org.nz
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