Download Astrological Research - The Kepler Conference

Astrological
Research
Robert Currey & Ken McRitchie
January 2017
Kepler Conference, Florida
Mesopotamia – our empirical origins
The first database – recorded on clay tablets
Ziggurats – the first laboratories
Astrologers were polymaths & natural philosophers
Nikolas Copernicus
(1473-1543)
Galilei Galileo
(1564-1642)
Girolamo Cardano
(1501 -1576)
Johannes Kepler
(1571-1630)
John Dee
(1527-1609)
John Napier
(1550-1617)
Isaac Newton
(1643-1727)
Astrologer?
4 scientific discoveries that rocked astrology
Precession of the Equinox
Discovery of the Outer Planets
The Solar (Copernican) System
Vast Distances in Space
Carl Jung (1865-1961) The Couples Test
Jung’s test of synchronicity
Polygenetic
Michel et Françoise Gauquelin
Skeptical Outrage
Paul Kurtz,
founder of CSICOP
Carl Sagan, scientist & broadcaster
Gauquelin vindicated
Carlson Double Blind Astrology Test
Sean Carlson
Physics under
graduate
Astrology test
published in
Nature
Science
Journal
John Maddox
Editor of
Nature &
Fellow of
CSICOP
Geoffrey Dean – Astrology's Harshest Critic
3 Types of Artefacts
1. Procedural Artefacts - selection bias,
cherry picking & faulty statistics
2. Natural Artefacts - mainly
astronomical.
3. Social Artefects – self-attribution
Astrological Research marred by errors
"Most astrological research is marred by errors
in methodology and statistical treatment. It
would seem that such methodological errors are
made not only by astrologers, but equally by
critics who attempt to disprove astrological
claims."
Professor Hans Eysenck (1983) Methodological Errors by
Critics of Astrological Claims. Opening lecture at 3rd
Institute of Psychiatry Conference, May 1983.
6 Main Type of Astrology Experiments
Vernon Clarke
Astrologers blind
match charts with
subjects
Computer
Modelling
Testing & refining
equations
Qualitative
Studies
Self-Recognition
Subjects attempt
to identify their
own chart
Unique case
studies
Gauquelin
Replications of the
Gauquelins’
Studies
Retrospective
Research
Statistical study of
data
Blind Matching Horoscope Tests
Vernon Clarke Type
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Vernon Clarke (1961)
New York Suicide (1977)
Carlson (1985) Ertel (2009)
Dean E & N Test (1986)
Timm & Köbberl (1986)
Nanninga (1996)
McGrew & McFall (1990)
Self Recognition Tests
Astrologers x
Charts
Analysis
26x30*
Dean says too few subjects.
10x64*
No hypothesis. Untested.
28x100
Sampling error Young homogenous
45x160
Misleading hypothesis. EPI. Age artefact.
3x178
Could not rule out ESP.
44x7
Impossible odds. Too few subjects
6x23
Subjects too similar & Impossible odds
Subjects
Analysis
• Carlson (1985)
83
Subjects failed to id own Psy. Profile
• Marbell et al (1986)
16
Dean claims Sun sign artefacts
• Wunder (2002)
23
Dean claims self-attribution artefacts
• Wyman & Vyse (2008)
52
Confirmation & Sampling bias
Vernon Clarke Matching Tests Meta-Analysis
Research Artefacts
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Samples size too small
Too much noise drowns out the signal
Experimenters lack of expertise in astrology
Single Factor testing – astrology is polygenetic
Use of expected outcome over control groups
Astronomical phenomena – endless anomalies
Hypothesis irrelevant or too broad
Astrology in retreat 1985 - 2005
1985 Dean E&N Study
1985 Carlson Double Blind
1991-2000 Dean Parental Tampering
1991 Michel Gauquelin
2000 Charles Harvey
2003 Dean Astrology & PSI
Clearing the logjam in Astrological Research
Replication of Gauquelin
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Gauquelin & Eysenck (1979 & 1981) – Extraversion
Müller & Menzer (1993) - Infant mortality
Ertel & Irving (1996) - Mars & elite athletes
Fuzeau-Braesch (2007) - Canine pets: E
Cochrane & Fink (2010) – Extraversion
Terry Mckinnell (?) – Review of Mars in WSH/Decans
Retrospective Studies
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Natal Chart Statistics
Hill & Thompson (1988) Redheads
Ridgley (1993) Pottenger (1999) Injuries
Hill (1996) Replication Redheads
Clarke (1996) Sun Moon & Extraversion
Brady (2002) Parent Child correlations
Tarvainen (2011-2013) 5 Studies
Extreme Personalities
Press (1977) Suicide
Dean (1986) E&N Currey (2017)
Ruiz (2012) Serial Killers
Financial Astrology
Yuang & Zeng (2006) Investment &
Pelc & Bondar (2010) Moon Phase
Sun Signs
Adel (2013) Celebrities
Castile (1999) Sun sign compatibility
Pollux (2001) Nobel Prizewinners
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Health (Moon & Sun)
Neal (2000) GP consultations
Roman (2004) Bleeding & Moon
Polychronopoulos (2006) Seizures
Harris (2009) Fertility
Cajochen (2013) Moon & Sleep
Chakraborty (2013) Cardio-Vas.
Shuhaiber (2013) Recovery
Bolland (2015) Disease & Birth
Wing (2015) Arthritis
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Qualitative Studies
Chemistry
Plants
Animals
Seismology
Meteorology
The End
Robert Currey * www.astrologer.com
Ken McRitchie * www.theoryofastrology.com
Astrology – a Placebo or a Psychological Model
Myers Briggs
Nicola Smuts-Allsop
Judicial Astrology as Divination
Dr Geoffrey Cornelius
Academic Astrology
Dr Bernadette Brady
Dr Lee Lehman
Professor Rick Tarnas
Problems with Vernon Clarke Matching Tests
1.
Sample:
a)
b)
c)
2.
Hypothesis:
a)
b)
3.
Untested hypothesis
Unrelated to astrology
N=?
a)
b)
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5.
6.
7.
Too homogenous
Too young to know themselves
Self selected
Too few subjects risks sampling error
Too few astrologers then astrologer error
Subjects seek to fulfil experimenters’ wishes
Unrelated Techniques (e.g. Vedic, Chinese)
Psychological Profile inferior or incompatible with astrology
Results attributable to self-attribution or ESP
Extending Gauquelin
MG Mars data in elite sports performers in Tropical Whole Sign Houses divided into 36
decans
110
100
R² = 0.9315
90
12th/1st
80
9th/10th
70
60
50
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26
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31
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36
Decans numbered anticlockwise from the WSH ascendant. (37=1st decan 38=2nd decan)
MG Data from Cochrane Concept from Terry McKinnell
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Astrology – populist or underground
Ben Franklin
Politician, Scientist & Astrologer
Carlson Double Blind Astrology Test
Sean Carlson
Physics under
graduate
Astrology test
published in
Nature
Science
Journal
Carlson Double Blind Astrology Test
Jan Ruiz – Serial Killer Study
Alternative Models of Astrology
Astrology as a language
• Astrology is a language. If
you understand the
language, the sky speaks to
you. ~ Dane Rhudyar
Astrology – therapy or placebo?
• Studies show that the
benefits of antidepressant
medication over placebo fell
below “accepted criteria for
clinical significance.” Kirsch
(2008)
Retreat into Divination?
Dr Geoffrey Cornelius
Is astrology divination?
1. It’s possible to test claims objectively.
2. No random element as in the I-Ching or Tarot
– birth data & planetary positions are
objective facts.
3. Divination is omniscient but most astrology
cannot judge gender, race, sexual orientation,
health or even if subject is alive or not.
The Evidence
For more info go to www.astrologer.com/tests
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Brady, Bernadette (2002) The Australian Parent-Child Research Project Correlation Journal Volume 20 (2)
2002
Hill, Judith & Thompson, Jacalyn (1988) "The Mars-Redhead Link: A Scientific Test of Astrology" NCGR
Journal, Winter 88-89.
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Hill, Judith (1996) "Redheads and Mars: A Scientific Testimony" The Mountain Astrologer, May 1996, pp 29-40
Yuan, Kathy; Zheng, Lu; Zhu, Qiaoqiao (2006) Are Investors Moon struck? - Lunar Phases and Stock
Returns Journal of Empirical Finance. 2006, 13(1), p.1-23
Clarke, D., Gabriels, T. & Barnes, J. (1996) Astrological Signs as Determinants of Extroversion and
Emotionality: An emprical study. The Journal of Psychology #130(2) pp.131-140
Press, Nona et al (1977) An Astrological Suicide Study. Journal of Geocosmic Research Vol.2 #2. Also in
Recent Advances in Natal Astrology. (Dean 1977)
Ruis, Jan (2012) The Birth Charts of Male Serial Killers: Evidence of Astrological Effects.Correlation Vol.28(2)
November 2012 pp.8-27
Dean, G. (1986), ‘Can astrology predict E and N? 3: discussion and further research’, Correlation, 6 (2), pp.
7–52. With 110 references. Includes meta-analyses of astrological studies.
Tarvainen, K., (2011) Classical synastry works on the Gauquelins’ data, composite and Davison don’t, The
Astrological Journal, Volume 53, Number 1, January/February 2011.
Tarvainen, K., (2012) Henning’s synthesis method shows validity of astrology in the Gauquelins’ data,
Correlation 28(1) pp.25-43.
Tarvainen, K., (2012) Ordinary astrology works on the Gauquelins’ data, The Astrological Journal, Volume
54, Number 2, March/April 2012.
Tarvainen, K., (2013) Favourable astrological factors for mathematicians, Correlation 29(1) pp.39-51.
Tarvainen, K., (2014) Effects of Venus/Saturn aspects in marriages, Correlation 28(2) pp. 7-14.
Moon and Health
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Eva María Román , Germán Soriano, Mercedes Fuentes, María Luz Gálvez, Clotilde Fernández
(2004) The influence of the full moon on the number of admissions related to gastrointestinal
bleeding. International Journal of Nursing Practice. Volume 10, Issue 6, pages 292–296, December
2004. Study in Barcelona suggests a correlation between admissions tor gastrointestinal bleeding
and the full moon.
J. H. Shuhaiber, J. L. Fava, T. Shin, N. Dobrilovic, A. Ehsan, A. Bert, F. Sellke. (2013) The influence of
seasons and lunar cycle on hospital outcomes following ascending aortic dissection
repair. Interactive CardioVascular and Thoracic Surgery. Study at Rhode Island Hospital found that
aortic surgery at the waning full moon resulted in better survival and shorter hospital stay.
Chakraborty U1, Ghosh T. (2013) A study on the physical fitness index, heart rate and blood pressure
in different phases of lunar month on male human subjects. Int J Biometeorol. International Journal
Biometerology 2013 Sep.57(5):769-74. Study on male subjects suggests that blood pressure, HR
and fitness recovery correlate with the lunar phase.
Cajochen, Christian; Altanay-Ekici, Songül; Münch, Mirjam; Frey, Sylvia; Knoblauch, Vera; WirzJustice, Anna (2013) Evidence that Lunar Cycle Influences Human Sleep. Current Biology, 25 July
2013. In 2013, in a retrospective study Professor Cajochen found a correlation between sleep
patterns and the Moon's phases.
The effect of the full moon on general practice consultation rates (2000) Neal, Richard and
Colledge, Malcolm, Family Practice
4 Sceptical Challenges
by the end of the last century
• New York Suicide Study
(1977)
• Dean’s Study on
Extraversion &
Introversion (1985)
• The Carlson Test (1985)
• Dean’s Meta Analysis
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To do
Ken logjam
Nick Kollerstrom
Qualitative tests
Dean fall in research 1985 2005
.