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2015 Case 8: (PNC) Operating Leverage, Financial Leverage, and Optimal Capital Structure PREPARED BY: JORDAN HUUS FIN 475 FALL 2015 PREPARED FOR: JAMES HASKINS, PHD DECEMBER 15, 2015 Table of Contents Executive Summary ..............................................................................2 Introduction ..........................................................................................3 Background...........................................................................................3 Statement of Purpose and Rationale ......................................................3 Methodology.........................................................................................4 Body .....................................................................................................4 Recommendation ..................................................................................7 Citations ...............................................................................................7 Appendix 1 ...........................................................................................8 Appendix 2 ...........................................................................................9 Appendix 3 ...........................................................................................10 Appendix 4 ...........................................................................................11 Appendix 5 ...........................................................................................12 Appendix 6 ...........................................................................................13-14 Appendix 7 ...........................................................................................14 Appendix 8 ...........................................................................................15-16 Page| 1 Jordan Huus Executive Summary Case 8 revolves around further capital structure analysis such as operating leverage, financial leverage, and optimal capital structure. Throughout the case, many topics are covered to represent the process used to find the best capital structure. Fortunately, PNC is facing a decision with great relevance in its efforts to spin off its wholly owned subsidiary, PNC Router. PNC Router will be spun off in the near future resultant of pressure from PNC Routers president, Frank Garcia. We will use this opportunity as an example to explain how to locate a firm’s best capital structure. PNC Router is faced with two strategic plans for its business to operate in after it spun off. Plan L and Plan H. Both will be presented and then analyzed to find the best option with the greatest value. Under Plan L, the company will continue to outsource most parts and use assembly equipment with a lower initial cost, but higher cost for labor. Under Plan H, Router would handle all manufacturing in-house, using highly automated equipment. Plan H would have much higher fixed costs but lower variable costs per unit. Refer to Appendix 1, Table 2a, for additional information on both cases. After some analysis as seen in Appendix 3, Table 3, Plan H has substantially more risk compared to Plan L. Plan H has a higher operating leverage than Plan L. This is because Plan H has very high fixed costs and low variable costs compared to Plan L. High fixed cost and low variable cost means that with each additional unit of output, sales figures increase greater than variable costs. (2015, December 14). Information retrieved from Investopedia.com. Furthermore, when analyzing both plans’ unlevered and levered operations Plan H has inappropriate risk and return levels. As seen in Table 3, Plan H has expected ROIC of 12.1% compared to Plan L of 12.7%. Now those figures are seem immaterially close, but let’s factor in a more insightful measurement, standard deviation. Plan H has an ROE standard deviation of 54.0% compared to Plan L of 24.2%. Plan H’s high risk is not justified by lower returns of ROIC and ROE when compared to Plan L. Based on ROE, riskiness, and WACC, Router should choose to pursue Plan L. The following assumptions are based on a debt level of 40%. Plan L has a higher expected ROE of 21.23% compared to Plan H of 20.16%. Furthermore, Plan L has much lower risk compared to Plan H. Standard deviation of ROE for Plan L is 24.20% versus 54.0% for Plan H. So far, Plan L has lower risk and higher return. As a final point, Plan L has a lower capital requirements as well as a lower WACC. Capital requirements for Plan L are $1.5 million, roughly two and a half times smaller than capital requirements for Plan H. This is attractive because Router can operate with less long-term liabilities on its books. Finally, WACC of 9.56% for Plan L is almost 100 basis points lower than Plan H of 10.40%. Page| 2 Jordan Huus Introduction Case 8 presents further concepts to capital structure, introducing tools used to find the optimal capital structure. Optimizing capital structure is a particularly important subject for PNC due to its current plan to spin off a wholly owned subsidiary called PNC Router Inc. PNC is required to develop a capital structure for the subsidiary before they spin it off. As noted in previous cases, optimal capital structure is connected to weighted average cost of capital or WACC, and is the focus of this case. By optimizing capital structure, WACC will be minimized. Background Some years ago, PNC decided to build specialized routers for its customers. PNC Router Inc. was formed and the president of Router is Frank Garcia, who has been recently pushing for a spin-off. Frank believes that a spin-off will allow it to grow and increase chances of success. Currently, PNC owns all of Router’s stock, but the plan is for Router to finalize its operating plan and capital structure and then sell shares to the public via IPO. Finalizing PNC’s plan choice is going to be the overarching theme in Case 8. Two strategic plans will be presented and then analyzed to find the best option. Under Plan L, the company will continue to outsource most parts and use assembly equipment with a lower initial cost, but higher cost for labor. Under Plan H, Router would handle all manufacturing in-house, using highly automated equipment. Plan H would have much higher fixed costs but lower variable costs per unit. Refer to Appendix 1, Table 2a, for additional information on both cases. Statement of Purpose and Rationale The issues in finding the correct strategic option, Plan L or H, lies within finding the correct capital structure. Comparing optimal capital structure of both plans is essential because of the widespread differences between the two. Differences such as variable costs, fixed costs, units demanded, debt levels, equity levels, and many more greatly affect value of the firm. All of the previously mentioned variables affect the way a capital structure should be formed. Fixed and variable costs effect operating leverage. Operating leverage is a measurement of the degree to which a firm or project incurs a combination of fixed and variable costs. (2015, December 14). Information retrieved from Investopedia.com. Higher operating leverage levels produce higher gross margins. As the volume of sales in a business increases, each new sale contributes less to fixed costs and more to profitability. Furthermore, variables such as the required amount of capital affect financial leverage. Router will need to raise a certain amount of capital during its IPO and potential debt issuance. Therefore, each plan must be analyzed to determine optimal debt levels to determine the best capital structure. Financial leverage is the amount of debt a company takes on in their capital structure. This debt is a type of fixed income security such as bonds and preferred equity, which are used to finance business operations. (2015, December 14). Information retrieved from Investopedia.com. Higher financial leverage can help reduce tax expenses but can become a detriment if used too much. Looking at Appendix 6, Table 7, we can see the effects of financial leverage on return on equity, or ROE. ROE measures a corporation’s profitability by revealing how much profit a company generates with the money shareholders have invested. ROE is an important ratio to Page| 3 Jordan Huus investors, in that it is calculated by taking net income divided by total equity. With this calculation in mind, ROE should be positively affected by higher financial leverage because returns less equity is needed to meet the capital requirements. Simply put, by adding debt to the capital structure, less equity will be needed causing the denominator of the ROE calculation to be lower. This theory is exemplified by looking at Plan L before and after leverage is used. Equity used before financial leverage is $1,500,000 and falls to $900,000 after financial leverage is used. Methodology As seen in many of the appendices, many different techniques and methodologies are used in our analysis of Plan L and H. A continuous theme throughout our analysis consisted of side-by-side comparison of the two, allowing the direct evaluation of both outcomes. Many different analysis tools such as Hamada equation, scenario analysis, and CAPM were used. The Hama equation, used in Appendix 7, Table 8, is a method of analyzing a firm’s cost of capital as it uses additional financial leverage, and how that relates to the overall riskiness of the firm. Scenario analysis, used in Appendix 4, Table 4, is a way of testing results when changing one variable at a time. This is helpful in that it shows how reactive important figures such as ROIC and break-even units are affected from changes in different input variables. Body Operating leverage is a measurement of the degree to which a firm or project incurs a combination of fixed and variable costs. Higher operating leverage levels produce higher gross margins. As the volume of sales in a business increases, each new sale contributes less to fixed costs and more to profitability. Higher allocation to fixed costs and lower allocation to lower costs is a sign of using operating leverage. (2015, December 14). Information retrieved from Investopedia.com. Financial leverage is the amount of debt a company takes on in their capital structure. This debt is a type of fixed income security such as bonds and preferred equity, which are used to finance business operations. Higher financial leverage can help reduce tax expenses but can become a detriment if used too much. (2015, December 14). Information retrieved from Investopedia.com. Business risk is a type of risk caused by potential problems that may arise attributable to that company. Potential problems such as the market conditions for sales figures, legislation regulating a company’s products, or the competition that company faces are all examples of business risk. Companies with higher business risk should have lower debt ratios to help avoid chances of bankruptcy. (2015, December 14). Information retrieved from Investopedia.com. Financial risk stems from the possibility that shareholders may lose money due to a business’s inability to pay financial obligations. Financial risk is heightened when a company has large liabilities on their balance sheet. This means that the company has many creditors expecting to be paid. If that company is unable to make enough EBIT, than they have a high chance of defaulting on current liabilities. (2015, December 14). Information retrieved from Investopedia.com. Page| 4 Jordan Huus Plan H has substantially more risk compared to Plan L. Plan H has a higher operating leverage than Plan L. This is because Plan H has very high fixed costs and low variable costs compared to Plan L. High fixed cost and low variable cost means that with each additional unit of output, sales figures increase greater than variable costs. Furthermore, when analyzing both plans’ unlevered and levered operations Plan H has inappropriate risk and return levels. As seen in Appendix 6, Table 7, Plan H has expected ROIC of 12.1% compared to Plan L of 12.7%. Now those figures are seem immaterially close, but let’s factor in a more insightful measurement, standard deviation. Plan H has an ROE standard deviation of 54.0% compared to Plan L of 24.2%. Plan H’s high risk is not justified by lower returns of ROIC and ROE when compared to Plan L. Optimal capital structure occurs when firms minimize their Weighted Average Cost of Capital, or WACC. Equity and debt both come at a price to the borrowing company and are what make up WACC. Equity financing has cost associated with the dividends paid and stock price appreciation that shareholders expect to receive. Additionally, companies who use bond financing must pay out interest payments to bond holders. These are the two main types off cost that make up the composition of WACC. Other forms of cost include preferred stock which are treated very similarly to bonds. Firms seeking to minimize WACC are in turn adding value to their company. As noted in previous cases, the proportions allocated to debt and equity determine a company’s capital structure. Higher allocations of debt cause a company to have higher financial leverage as well as higher risk and return. Different mixtures of debt and equity weighting can lower WACC by using interest payment on debt as tax deductible expenses. Thus, higher use of debt, instead of equity, leads to lower taxes and higher income. This effect only helps a company to a certain point, before interest payments become too high and start to negatively affect a company’s bottom line. The first step a company must take in determining their own optimal capital structure is to find the different debt financing options available to them and the relative cost. Higher weights of debt in capital structure can lead to higher cost on that debt. As seen in Appendix 5, Table 6, different weights, starting with 0% and ending at 60%, can be seen and thus used in subsequent analysis. The aforementioned table was created through discussions with investment bankers according to Router’s financial statements and overall health. Investment bankers are paid to have their finger on the pulse of capital markets. Accuracy of cost figures associated with weights of debt should be used as reliable information and perhaps updated if too much time expires or a material change in market trends occurs. When looking at Table 6, in Appendix 5, directors may observe that potential savings could be made if debt were taken out at 20% the first round of financing and another 20% during a second round. The thought is that it would lower cost of debt by separately financing the two, causing the average cost of debt to be at 7.6% instead of 12.0%. Unfortunately, things aren’t that simple. The cost figures presented in Table 6 are ongoing interest payments and are not inclusive of one-time fixed payments during issuance. Each time debt financing is made, there is a fixed cost passed on to the borrower for fees such as administrative costs. These fixed costs offset potential savings made from issuing multiple rounds of financing. To determine the effects of financial leverage, analysis was performed in Table 7 Appendix 6. The tables show the different effects of financial leverage on Plans L and H. 0% leverage and 40% leverage were used as scenarios to observe ROIC. The goal is to define if Page| 5 Jordan Huus financial leverage appropriately effects of risk return trade-off. When looking at the outcomes of 0% financial leverage, Plan L and Plan H have ROIC of 14.8% and 14.2%, respectively. These returns are calculated by taking expected “Net income” and dividing it by “Total assets under Plan …” ROIC is a calculation used to assess a company’s efficiency at allocating capital and gives a sense of how well a company is using capital to generate returns. Unfortunately, higher financial leverage, at 40%, causes ROIC to fall under both plans. After financial leverage of 40% is implemented, ROIC for plans L and H fall to 12.7% and 12.1%, respectively. Looking at Appendix 6, Table 7, we can see the effects of financial leverage on return on equity, or ROE. ROE measures a corporation’s profitability by revealing how much profit a company generates with the money shareholders have invested. ROE is an important ratio to investors, in that it is calculated by taking net income divided by total equity. With this calculation in mind, ROE should be positively affected by higher financial leverage because returns less equity is needed to meet the capital requirements. Simply put, by adding debt to the capital structure, less equity will be needed causing the denominator of the ROE calculation to be lower. This theory is exemplified by looking at Plan L before and after leverage is used. Equity used before financial leverage is $1,500,000 and falls to $900,000 after financial leverage is used. Minimizing WACC is widely accepted as the best way to optimize firm value. Typically, by minimizing the cost of capital that a firm uses, it is able to increase profitability and efficiency. This is not always the case for companies in unique financial positions. Startup companies that have very high business risk may forgo issuing debt. One reason that stem from this decision may be to limit financial risk. Startup companies are inherently risky and they may not want to add to further financial risk. Secondly, issuing debt may be too costly and may be better off just issuing equity. Debt issuance such as bonds require periodic interest payments. Negative net income figures may not be able to pay these payments off as they come due. The Hamada Equation analyzes a firm’s costs of capital as it uses additional financial leverage, and how that relates to the overall riskiness of the firm. Hamada’s equation can depict how much additional risk a firm will take on by using financial leverage. (2015, December 14). Information retrieved from Investopedia.com. It does this by separating out the beta, or risk, of a company’s business risk total risk. Once a firm’s unlevered beta is found it can be compared to the levered beta. This provides a representation of the increase in riskiness the firm receives when financial leverage is used. The aforementioned concept behind the Hamada’s equation is exemplified in Appendix 8, Tables 8. Table 8 shows unlevered betas for Plan H and L where debt is 0%. Unlevered beta for Plan L is 1.1 and 1.3 for Plan H. As allocation of capital structure increases it’s percentage of debt, beta begins to increase. At 40% weight of debt, beta has increased to 1.54 and 1.82 for Plan L and H respectively. That is an increase of risk of 40% for each project, a substantial change to the riskiness of the entire firm. Furthermore, Hamada’s equation can be used to determine cost of equity by entering the levered beta in to the CAPM model of Modigliani Miller. Alternative ways to work around M&M theories and confirm the cost of equity is to speak with investment bankers about the estimated rate at which prospective buyers would require a return. Investment bankers know the demand for a company from speaking with investors in the primary market. This perhaps could provide them with additional data to estimate cost of equity for Router. Page| 6 Jordan Huus Optimal Capital structure is found by pinpointing minimum WACC. Minimum WACC locates optimal capital structure because it simply finds the lowest cost for the firms required capital. By lowering the cost of capital, firms stand to pay less in taxes, interest, and dividends to shareholders. Router’s minimum WACC for Plans L and H can be seen in Appendix 8, Tables 9, 10, and Graph 1. At 40% financed with debt, both plans L and H are the lowest at 9.56% and 10.40%. Recommendation Based on ROE, riskiness, and WACC, Router should choose to pursue Plan L. The following assumptions are based on a debt level of 40%. Plan L has a higher expected ROE of 21.23% compared to Plan H of 20.16%. Furthermore, Plan L has much lower risk compared to Plan H. Standard deviation of ROE for Plan L is 24.20% versus 54.0% for Plan H. So far, Plan L has lower risk and higher return. As a final point, Plan L has a lower capital requirements as well as a lower WACC. Capital requirements for Plan L are $1.5 million, roughly two and a half times smaller than capital requirements for Plan H. This is attractive because Router can operate with less long-term liabilities on its books. Finally, WACC of 9.56% for Plan L is almost 100 basis points lower than Plan H of 10.40%. Citations http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/returnoninvestmentcapital.asp?header_alt=c http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/returnonequity.asp?header_alt=c http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nopat.asp?header_alt=c http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/operatingleverage.asp?header_alt=c http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/corporate-finance/5/capital-structure/financialleverage.aspx?header_alt=c http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalstructure.asp?header_alt=c http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/financialrisk.asp?header_alt=c http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/businessrisk.asp?header_alt=c Page| 7 Jordan Huus Appendix Appendix 1 Table 1 Input Data, Both Plans Price Unit Demand, Expected Tax Rate Data for Plan L Variable cost/unit Total fixed op. costs Non-cash component of FC Maximum units of capacity Required Capital (or assets) Data for Plan H Variable cost/unit Total fixed op. costs Non-cash component of FC Maximum units of capacity Required Capital (or assets) $384 16,000 40% $329 $400,000 $200,000 20,000 $1,500,000 $150 $2,800,000 $1,400,000 35,000 $4,000,000 Above is original data provided by for the strategic options available for Router. Under Plan L, the company will continue to outsource most parts and use assembly equipment with a lower initial cost, but higher cost for labor. Plan L has higher variable costs of $329 and lower fixed costs of $400,000 compared to Plan H of $150 and $2,800,000, respectively. Under Plan H, Router would handle all manufacturing in-house, using highly automated equipment. Plan H would have much higher fixed costs but lower variable costs per unit. Furthermore, the capital required for Plan L is much lower than Plan H. This is because under Plan H, Router will need to spend large amounts of capital to buy automated machinery. Page| 8 Jordan Huus Appendix 2 Table 2 Sales Revenue and Probability Dist Market conditions Awful (Exp. x 0) Poor (Exp x .5) Expected Units Good (exp. x 1.5) Great (exp. X 2) Probability of this market condition 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.10 Sales Data Applicable to L Units Sold: Factor: Multiply Factor times it by expected expected sales, units from constrained to above to find max level units produced (Thousands) 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 Expected Values: Standard Deviation (SD): Coefficient of Variation (CV): 0 8,000 16,000 20,000 20,000 14,000 6,261 0.45 Revenue (Thousands) $ $ $0 $3,072,000 $6,144,000 $7,680,000 $7,680,000 5,376,000 2,404,220 0.45 Sales Data Applicable to H Units Sold: Factor times expected sales, constrained to max level (Thousands) Revenue (Thousands) 0 8,000 16,000 24,000 32,000 16,000 8,764 0.55 $0 $3,072,000 $6,144,000 $9,216,000 $12,288,000 $ 6,144,000 $ 3,365,207 0.55 Units demanded may be very different conditional to economic market conditions. As seen above in Table 2, five different market conditions have been stated with relative probability levels. These probability levels are then used to estimate a reasonable level of units sold and subsequent revenue generated. After calculating each economic impact on units sold and revenue, expected value figures and standard deviation from the mean can be calculated. These figures are important for painting a picture of riskiness and variability between the two plans. Plan L has a lower standard deviation compared to Plan H, depicting Plan H as the higher risk project. Finally, risk reward trade-off is consistent with this model. Plan H has higher expected return relative to Plan L. Page| 9 Jordan Huus Appendix 3 Table 3 Operating Profitability Under Plans L and H Plan L: Low Fixed, High Variable Costs Plan H: High Fixed, Low Variable Costs Units Dem anded (not units sold if con-strained) 0 8,000 16,000 24,000 32,000 Exp. Value: Std. Dev.: CV: Total Operating Costs Pre-tax Operating Profit (EBIT) $400,000 $3,032,000 $5,664,000 $6,980,000 $6,980,000 $5,006,000 $2,059,866 0.41 -$400,000 $40,000 $480,000 $700,000 $700,000 $370,000 $344,354 0.93 Net Oper. Profit Return on After Taxes Invested Capital (NOPAT) (ROIC) -$240,000 $24,000 $288,000 $420,000 $420,000 $222,000 $206,613 0.93 -16.0% 1.6% 19.2% 28.0% 28.0% 14.80% 0.14 0.93 Total Operating Costs $2,800,000 $4,000,000 $5,200,000 $6,400,000 $7,600,000 $5,200,000 $1,314,534 0.25 Pre-tax Net Oper. Profit Return on Operating Profit After Taxes Invested Capital (EBIT) (NOPAT) (ROIC) -$2,800,000 -$928,000 $944,000 $2,816,000 $4,688,000 $944,000 $2,050,673 2.17 -$1,680,000 -$556,800 $566,400 $1,689,600 $2,812,800 $566,400 $1,230,404 2.17 Operating profitability is calculated by sales minus total operating costs. Operating costs consist of variable costs and fixed costs. The importance of operating profitability is the company’s ability to sell products at a profitable rate. Return on invested capital, ROIC, is an additional measurement to rate the profitability of operating capital based on the amount of outstanding capital. ROIC is calculated by taking net operating profit after taxes, NOPAT, and then dividing it by the total capital. More simply, ROIC measures the profitability of debt and equity capital raised. P a g e | 10 Jordan Huus -42.0% -13.9% 14.2% 42.2% 70.3% 14.16% 0.31 2.17 Appendix 4 Table 4 Price Breakeven Units L H $307 $384 $461 -18,349 7,273 3,035 Average Demand L H 12,800 16,000 19,200 20.3% 32.0% 43.7% 4.9% 23.6% 42.3% ROIC 17,812 11,966 9,009 Price L H $307 $384 $461 -49.9% 32.0% 113.9% -7.1% 23.6% 54.3% ROIC Variable Cost Plan L Expected values Breakeven ROIC Variable Cost Plan H Expected values Breakeven ROIC $264 $330 $396 Fixed Cost 3,333 101.3% 7,407 30.9% -33,333 -39.5% Expected values Breakeven ROIC $120 $150 $180 Fixed Cost 10,606 35.6% 11,966 23.6% 13,725 11.6% Expected values Breakeven ROIC $320,000 $400,000 $480,000 Required Capital 5,818 7,273 8,727 $2,240,000 $2,800,000 $3,360,000 Required Capital 9,573 11,966 14,359 $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 Prod. Constraint 40.0% 32.0% 26.7% 29.5% 23.6% 19.7% ROIC $3,200,000 $4,000,000 $4,800,000 Prod. Constraint 16,000 20,000 24,000 32.0% 46.7% 51.1% 28,000 35,000 42,000 93.8% 134.8% 146.4% ROIC 37.3% 32.0% 26.7% 37.6% 23.6% 9.6% ROIC ROIC The previous sensitivity analysis depicts the different effects cause by changes in one variable at a time. By changes units of measurement such as price, average demand, fixed costs and more, outcomes can be analyzed and then compared to the opposing plan. One great example in the above table is the ROIC relative to changes in price. ROIC is calculated by taking net income divided by total capital. Plan L has large variating ROIC when changes in price occur. Plan H has much more consistent changes in ROIC caused by changes in price. More consistent returns seen in Plan H stem from a larger amount of required capital. Larger amounts of total capital in the denominator of the ROIC calculation to become larger, which causes changes in the numerator to affect ROIC less P a g e | 11 Jordan Huus Appendix 5 Table 5 Values for Router at Present Time (Book Values): Plan L $1,265,320 $0 $1,265,320 $1,500,000 $234,680 Existing total assets Existing Debt Existing net capital Total capital required for Plan Additional capital needed for Plan Plan H $1,265,320 $0 $1,265,320 $4,000,000 $2,734,680 Table 6 Interest Rate Cost Schedule Percent Percent Interest financed financed Rate on with debt with equity Debt (w d ) (w e) (kd ) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 7.3% 7.4% 7.6% 8.1% 8.6% 10.0% 12.0% Table ______, above, shows the existing assets that both Plan L and Plan H currently have on their books. This table is used to establish the amount of additional capital needed to meet the requirements for each plan. Plan L has capital requirements of $1,500,000, with only $1,264,320 currently available. The additional capital of $234,680 will need to be raised either through equity issuance in the form of an IPO, or through issuing bonds. Plan H has higher capital requirements due to high initial cost of automated machinery. Capital requirements for Plan H will need to conclude at $4,000,000, with only $1,265,320 currently available. Again, either through IPO or debt issuance, Router will need to produce the difference of $2,734,680. Table ______ depicts the different costs of debt available relative to different amounts of debt. Different weights, starting with 0% and ending at 60%, can be seen and thus used in subsequent analysis. The aforementioned table was created through discussions with investment bankers according to Router’s financial statements and overall health. Investment bankers are paid to have their finger on the pulse of capital markets. Accuracy of cost figures associated with weights of debt should be used as reliable information and perhaps updated if too much time expires or a material change in market trends occurs. P a g e | 12 Jordan Huus Appendix 6 Table 7 Plan L Debt (Book value) Equity after financing Total assets under Plan L Interest rate Product Demand Probability (1) (2) Awful 0.10 Poor 0.20 Average 0.40 Good 0.20 Great 0.10 Expected value: Standard deviation: Coefficient of variation: Plan H EBIT (3) $(400,000.00) $ 40,000.00 $ 480,000.00 $ 700,000.00 $ 700,000.00 $370,000 0% $ $ $ $ $ Debt (Book value) Equity after financing Total assets under Plan H Interest rate Product Demand Probability (1) (2) Awful 0.10 Poor 0.20 Average 0.40 Good 0.20 Great 0.10 Expected value: Standard deviation: Coefficient of variation: EBIT (3) $ (2,800,000) $ (928,000) $ 944,000 $ 2,816,000 $ 4,688,000 $944,000 Interest (4) $0 $ $ $ $ $ $0 $1,500,000 $1,500,000 7.3% Pre-tax Taxes income (40%) (5) (6) (400,000) $ (160,000) 40,000 $ 16,000 480,000 $ 192,000 700,000 $ 280,000 700,000 $ 280,000 $370,000 $148,000 0% $ $ $ $ $ Interest (4) $0 $ $ $ $ $ Pre-tax income (5) (2,800,000) (928,000) 944,000 2,816,000 4,688,000 $944,000 Section II. Leveraged: 40% of Assets Financed with Long-Term Debt Plan L Debt (Market value) 40% Equity after financing Total assets under Plan L Interest rate Product Pre-tax Demand Probability EBIT Interest income (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Terrible 0.10 -$400,000 $51,600 -$451,600 Poor 0.20 $40,000 $51,600 -$11,600 Average 0.40 $480,000 $51,600 $428,400 Good 0.20 $700,000 $51,600 $648,400 Great 0.10 $700,000 $51,600 $648,400 Expected value: $370,000 $51,600 $318,400 Standard deviation: Coefficient of variation: Plan H Debt (Market value) Equity after financing Total assets under Plan H Interest rate Product Demand Probability (1) (2) Terrible 0.10 Poor 0.20 Average 0.40 Good 0.20 Great 0.10 Expected value: Standard deviation: Coefficient of variation: EBIT (3) -$2,800,000 -$928,000 $944,000 $2,816,000 $4,688,000 $944,000 40% Interest (4) $137,600 $137,600 $137,600 $137,600 $137,600 $137,600 Pre-tax income (5) -$2,937,600 -$1,065,600 $806,400 $2,678,400 $4,550,400 $806,400 $ $ $ $ $ $0 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 7.3% Taxes (40%) (6) (1,120,000) (371,200) 377,600 1,126,400 1,875,200 $377,600 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Net income (7) (240,000) 24,000 288,000 420,000 420,000 $222,000 Net income (7) (1,680,000) (556,800) 566,400 1,689,600 2,812,800 $566,400 $600,000 $900,000 $1,500,000 8.6% Taxes (40%) (6) -$180,640 -$4,640 $171,360 $259,360 $259,360 $127,360 Net income (7) -$270,960 -$6,960 $257,040 $389,040 $389,040 $191,040 $1,600,000 $2,400,000 $4,000,000 8.6% Taxes (40%) (6) -$1,175,040 -$426,240 $322,560 $1,071,360 $1,820,160 $322,560 Net income (7) -$1,762,560 -$639,360 $483,840 $1,607,040 $2,730,240 $483,840 ROE (8) -16.00% 1.60% 19.20% 28.00% 28.00% 14.80% 13.77% 0.93 ROIC: TIE Ratio (9) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $0 #VALUE! #VALUE! 14.80% ROE (8) -42.00% -13.92% 14.16% 42.24% 70.32% 14.16% 30.76% 2.17 ROIC: TIE Ratio (9) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.00 #VALUE! #VALUE! 14.2% ROE (8) -30.1% -0.8% 28.6% 43.2% 43.2% 21.23% 24.20% #REF! ROIC: TIE Ratio (9) -7.8 0.8 9.3 13.6 13.6 7.17 7.03 0.98 12.7% ROE (8) -73.4% -26.6% 20.2% 67.0% 113.8% 20.16% 54.0% 2.68 ROIC: TIE Ratio (9) -20.3 -6.7 6.9 20.5 34.1 6.86 1490.3% 2.17 12.1% P a g e | 13 Jordan Huus Table 7 above shows the effects of using debt on net income and ROE. The first two tables consist of Plan L and H with zero financial leverage. With zero financial leverage, interest payments are zero, allowing net income to be higher. In the scope of these two plans, additional capital is needed both projects. Therefore, we must add financial leverage to the analysis which can be seen in the lower two tables within Table 7. These two tables depict a financial leverage level of 40%. Interest payments increase and lower net income for both Plan L and H. Appendix 7 Table 8 Tax rate 40% wd D/S 0.00 0.11 0.25 0.43 0.67 1.00 1.50 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Hamada bU Plan L Plan H 1.1 1.3 1.10 1.30 1.17 1.39 1.27 1.50 1.38 1.63 1.54 1.82 1.76 2.08 2.09 2.47 Table 8 shows unlevered betas for Plan H and L where debt is 0%. These betas were found using Hamada’s equation. Unlevered beta for Plan L is 1.1 and 1.3 for Plan H. As allocation of capital structure increases it’s percentage of debt, beta begins to increase. At 40% weight of debt, beta has increased to 1.54 and 1.82 for Plan L and H respectively. That is an increase of risk of 40% for each project, a substantial change to the riskiness of the entire firm. P a g e | 14 Jordan Huus Appendix 8 Table 9 Plan L, Optimal Capital Structure Analysis Should use per share analysis first then Optimal capital structure Percent Before-tax Value of After-tax cost Market Debt/ financed cost Firm: Expected TIE of debt, (1Equity, D/S of debt, Cost of Equity, rs with debt,w d FCF/WACC Ratio: EBIT/I (2) T) rd (4) rd (3) Beta, b (5) (6) WACC (7) (8) (9) (1) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0.00 0.11 0.25 0.43 0.67 1.00 1.50 7.30% 7.40% 7.60% 8.10% 8.60% 10.00% 12.00% 4.38% 4.44% 4.56% 4.86% 5.16% 6.00% 7.20% 1.10 1.17 1.27 1.38 1.54 1.76 2.09 10.3% 10.7% 11.1% 11.7% 12.5% 13.6% 15.3% 10.30% 10.04% 9.81% 9.66% 9.56% 9.80% 10.42% $2,155,340 $2,210,275 $2,262,536 $2,298,613 $2,321,205 $2,265,306 $2,130,518 Table 10 Plan H, Optimal Capital Structure Analysis Percent Before-tax After-tax cost Market Debt/ financed cost of debt, (1Equity, D/S of debt, with debt,w d (2) T) rd (4) rd (3) (1) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0.00 0.11 0.25 0.43 0.67 1.00 1.50 7.30% 7.40% 7.60% 8.10% 8.60% 10.00% 12.00% 4.38% 4.44% 4.56% 4.86% 5.16% 6.00% 7.20% Beta, b 1.30 1.39 1.50 1.63 1.82 2.08 2.47 (5) Cost of Equity, rs (6) 11.3% 11.7% 12.3% 13.0% 13.9% 15.2% 17.2% WACC (7) 11.30% 11.00% 10.73% 10.54% 10.40% 10.60% 11.18% Value of Firm: FCF/WACC (8) 5,012,389 5,147,219 5,277,674 5,374,834 5,444,060 5,343,396 5,066,190 Expected TIE Ratio: EBIT/I (9) P a g e | 15 Jordan Huus Graph 1 The above tables, Table 9 and 10, begin to wrap-up the final analysis of optimal capital structure. WACC calculations have been made using different weights of debt, from 0% to 60%. Next, each WACC figure can be calculated by blending costs of debt and equity together proportionate to their weights. Optimal capital structure for each plan will consist of a debt and equity levels that minimize WACC. As seen in the above tables and graphs, minimum WACC occurs at 40% debt and 60% equity for both Plans L and H. Furthermore, the value of the firm has been calculated as well, which appropriately corresponds to the minimum WACC. P a g e | 16 Jordan Huus