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What we will discuss today Some requirements for marketing research Primary vs. secondary research Market forecasting considerations Requirements for Conducting Marketing Research Systematic Decision Oriented Objective Specific Research Plan Types and Methods Sample Selection Data Research Methods Observational Research Focus-Group Research Survey Research Scanner Data Research Instruments 1 Questionnaires Validity: are we measuring what we want to measure? – Divergent Validity – Convergent Validity Multiple Measures Reliability: are the measures consistent over time and across situations? – Repeated Measures – Tests and now, a test! Foreign nationals should be allowed to hold jobs in the United States. Strongly Agree 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Strongly Disagree Foreign governments should allow American citizens to hold jobs in their countries. Strongly Agree 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Strongly Disagree Research Instruments 2 Multiple Regression: the relationship of one set of variables on another set of variables Discriminant Analysis: what factors distinguish two populations Cluster Analysis: determine groups or clusters with similar characteristics in a population Sampling 1 Sampling Unit - the target population (who) Sample Size - can be quite small (how many), depends on sampling procedure Sampling 2: Sampling Procedure Probability Sample: allows calculation of confidence limits due to sampling error – Simple Random Sample – Stratified Random Sample: mutually exclusive groups – Cluster Sample: mutually exclusive areas Sampling 3: Sampling Procedure Nonprobability Sample – Convenience Sample: the most accessible sample – Judgement Sample: use judgement as to which population might make the best subjects – Quota Sample: find and test certain # of subjects in each of several categories A Sampling Problem You know that most pen manufacturers have a high rate of defective pens. You receive a shipment of 10,000 pens in a box. How can you determine the quality of this shipment? Primary Vs. Secondary Data Speed Expense Expertise Info Accessibility Data Costly Time Consuming Fit With Needs Sources of Market Information Books and Periodicals Consultants and Research Firms Customers Internal Records Grapevine Employees Public records from competitors Suppliers Death by data asphyxiation Kipling on Secondary Data? I keep six honest serving men, (they taught me all I know), their names are What, and Why, and When, and How and Where and Who. – “The Elephant’s Child” by Rudyard Kipling Secondary Data: Some Questions to Consider When was it collected? How was it collected? What is the expected level of accuracy? Who collected the data? Where was it collected; for what purpose? Top ten developments expected to occur between 1969 to 1979 10. Sustained nuclear fusion to produce power 9. Fast breeder reacters for power generation 8. Nuclear-powered aircraft 7. Adhesive-bonded aircraft 6. Superhigh-speed submersibles 5. Ultrahigh-speed ground transportation 4. Superconducting coils for levitating speed vehicles 3. Room temperature superconducting materials 2. Manned exploration of Mars and Venus 1. Plastics as primary structures in buildings Some Guidelines in Making Market Forecasts Ask fundamental questions about markets – – – – e.g., Who are the customers? How large is the market? Is there a real benefit? Does the innovation go against customs, culture, or established business practice? – Are social trends moving toward or away from this market? Some Guidelines in Making Market Forecasts Avoid technological wonder Stress cost-benefit analysis Consider multiple methods and multiple scenarios What we discussed today Some requirements for marketing research Primary vs. secondary research Market forecasting considerations