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Read “World Is Skating on Thin Ice” before answering Numbers 28 through 36. World Is Skating on THIN ICE From National Life Magazine I f any explorers had been hiking to the North Pole this summer, they would have had to swim the last few miles. The recent discovery of open water at the Pole by an icebreaker cruise ship has surprised many in the scientific community. This finding, combined with two recent scientific studies, confirms that the Earth’s ice cover is melting at an accelerating rate. A study by two Norwegian scientists projects that within 50 years the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free during the summer. The other study, by a team of four U.S. scientists, reports that the vast Greenland ice sheet is melting. An earlier study reported that the thickness of the ice sheet has been reduced by 42 percent over the last four decades. The area of the ice sheet has also shrunk by six percent. This thinning and shrinkage has reduced the Arctic Ocean ice mass by nearly half. Meanwhile, Greenland is gaining some ice in the higher altitudes, but it is losing much more at lower elevations, particularly along its southern and eastern coasts. The huge island of 2.2 million square kilometers is experiencing a net loss of some 51 billion cubic metres of water each year, an amount equal to the annual flow of the Nile River. The Antarctic is also losing ice. In contrast to the North Pole, which is covered by the Arctic Sea, the South Pole is covered by the Antarctic continent, a land mass roughly the size of the United States. Its continent-sized ice sheet, which is on average 2.3 kilometers thick, is relatively stable. But the ice shelves, the portions of the ice sheet that extend into the surrounding seas, are fast disappearing. A team of American and British scientists reported in 1999 that the ice shelves on either side of the Antarctic Peninsula are in full retreat. From roughly mid-century through 1997, these areas lost 7,000 square kilometers. Huge icebergs that have broken off are threatening ships in the area. Scientists attribute the accelerated ice melting to a regional temperature rise of some 2.5 degrees Celsius since 1940. These are not the only examples of melting. Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute, in an Issue Alert released today says, “My colleague, Lisa Mastny, who has reviewed some 30 studies on this topic, reports that ice is melting almost everywhere—and at an accelerating rate. The snow/ice mass is shrinking in the world’s major mountain ranges: the Rocky Mountains, the Andes, the Alps, and the Himalayas. In Glacier National Park in Montana, the number of glaciers has dwindled from 150 in 1850 to fewer than 50 today. The U.S. Geological Survey projects that the remaining glaciers will disappear within 30 years.” Scientists studying the Quelccaya glacier in the Peruvian Andes report that its retreat has accelerated from 3 meters a year between roughly 1970 and 1990 to 30 meters a year since 1990. In Europe’s Alps, the shrinkage of the glacial area by 35 to 40 percent since 1850 is expected to continue. These ancient glaciers could largely disappear over the next half-century. Brown notes that shrinkage of ice masses in the Himalayas has also accelerated alarmingly. In eastern India, the Dokriani Bamak glacier, which retreated by 16 meters between 1992 and 1997, drew back by a further 20 meters in 1998 alone. The Worldwatch Institute warns that if the massive snow/ice mass in the Himalayas—which is the third largest in the world after the Greenlandic and Antarctic ice sheets—continues to melt, it will affect the water supply of much of Asia. All of the region’s major rivers—the Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow— originate in the Himalayas. The melting in the Himalayas could alter the hydrology of several Asian countries, including Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, and China. Antarctica landscape with icebergs that have broken off due to accelerated Less snowmelt in the summer ice melting. They are a threat to ships in the area. dry season to feed rivers could exacerbate the hydrological poverty This melting and shrinkage of snow/ice masses should not come as a total surprise. Swedish already affecting so many in the region. scientist Svente Arrhenius warned at the beginning As the ice on land melts and flows to the sea, of the last century that burning fossil fuels could sea level rises. Over the last century, sea level rose by 20 to 30 centimeters. During this century, raise atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), creating a greenhouse effect. Atmospheric CO2 the existing climate models indicate it could rise by as much as one meter. If the Greenland levels, estimated at 280 parts per million (ppm) ice sheet, which is up to 3.2 kilometers thick in before the Industrial Revolution, have climbed places, were to melt entirely, sea level would rise from 317 ppm in 1960 to 368 ppm in 1999—a gain of 16 percent in only four decades. by 7 meters. Even a much more modest rise would affect As CO2 concentrations have risen, so too has the low-lying river floodplains of Asia, where Earth’s temperature. Between 1975 and 1999, the much of the region’s rice is produced. According to average temperature increased from 13.94 degrees, a gain of 0.41 degrees in 24 years. The warmest 23 World Bank analysis, a one-meter rise in sea level years since record keeping began in 1866 have all would cost low-lying Bangladesh half its Riceland. occurred since 1975. Numerous low-lying island countries would have Researchers are discovering that a modest rise to be evacuated. The residents of densely populated in temperature of only one or two degrees Celsius river valleys of Asia would be forced inland into in mountainous regions can dramatically increase already crowded interiors. Rising sea level could create climate refugees by the millions in countries the share of precipitation falling as rain while decreasing the share coming down as snow. The such as China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. result is more flooding during the rainy season, a Even more disturbing, ice melting itself can shrinking snow/ice mass, and less snowmelt to feed rivers during the dry season. accelerate temperature rise. As snow/ice masses These “reservoirs in the sky,” where nature shrink, less sunlight is reflected back into space. With more sunlight absorbed by less reflective stores fresh water for use in the summer as surfaces, temperature rises even faster and melting the snow melts, are shrinking and some could disappear entirely. This will affect the water supply accelerates. Brown says that we don’t have to sit idly by as for cities and for irrigation in areas dependent on this scenario unfolds. He says there may still be snowmelt to feed rivers. Diagnostic Test time to stabilize atmospheric CO2 levels before continuing carbon emissions cause climate change to spiral out of control. “We have more than enough wind, solar, and geothermal energy that can be economically harnessed to power the world economy. If we were to incorporate the cost of climate disruption in the price of fossil fuels in the form of a carbon tax, investment would quickly shift from fossil fuels to these climate-benign energy sources.” Now answer Numbers 28 through 36. Base your answers on “World Is Skating on Thin Ice.” 28. What information led scientists to discover that the Earth’s ice cover is diminishing rapidly? F. the discovery of the greenhouse effect by a Swedish scientist about 30 years ago G. the fact that mountainous areas of the world are experiencing more precipitation H. the discovery by the British that the ice shelf in Antarctic is stable and predictable I. a discovery of open water at the North Pole and evidence from two scientific studies 29. What effects would the rising sea level have on Bangladesh? A. The rainfall would increase and the ice mass would diminish. B. Mountainous areas would see less rainfall, depleting summer water reserves. C. The country would lose much of its farmland forcing residents to move inland. D. Temperatures of low-lying areas would rise, forcing people to move to cooler coastal areas. 30. What evidence best supports the author’s claim that people have been aware of the changes in the earth’s climate for a very long time? F. G. H. I. Over the last century, sea levels rose significantly in all parts of the world. The glaciers in the Alps have shrunk about 40 percent in the last fifty years. The warmest 23 years have all taken place in approximately the last 30 years. In the early 20th century, a scientist warned of the risks of increased CO2 levels. 31. What is most likely the author’s purpose in writing this article? A. to explain how scientists became aware of the reduction of the polar ice cover B. to convince readers to help fund research to learn the causes of the melting ice cap C. to illustrate effects of global warming on the world, especially the Asian population D. to convince readers that the melting ice cap illustrates a need for alternate sources of power 32. What evidence supports the idea that the glaciers in Europe’s Alps may disappear over the next fifty years? F. G. H. I. 21 The shrinkage of ice masses always follows a consistent pattern. In the past 150 years, glaciers have shrunk to almost one half their original size. The shrinking ice mass in the Himalayas has advanced by 36 meters since 1992. The U.S. Geological Survey projects that the remaining glaciers will disappear soon. 33. How will the melting snow/ice masses in the Himalayas affect the water supply of Asia? A. The floodplains will overflow and people will need to learn flood control farming. B. As the snowmelt that feeds rivers diminishes, many countries will become even drier. C. The amount of precipitation will increase, causing more flooding during the dry season. D. As the snowmelt decreases, area rivers will change course, no longer flowing into countries that need water the most. Diagnostic Test 34. According to the article, how is the Antarctic different from the North Pole? F. It is covered by solid ground. G. It is surrounded by ice shelves. H. It is studied by climate scientists. I. It is unaffected by rising CO2 levels. 35. The author organizes the article by A. explaining the effects of global warming and then listing its causes. B. presenting a theory about melting ice and then supporting it with examples. C. describing an arctic hike and then showing how it relates to global warming. D. describing evidence of melting ice and then giving explanations and solutions. 36. Read this sentence from the article. The thinning and shrinkage has reduced the Arctic Ocean ice mass by nearly half. Which of the following sentences uses the word mass with the same meaning as in the sentence above? F. G. H. I. A mass of excited fans crowded around the movie star’s limousine. Weighted down by its enormous mass, the ocean liner sank rapidly. Hearing news of the sale, shoppers began to mass outside the store at 5 A.M. Scientists claimed the mass of the unexplored planet and divided it into colonies. 21