Download Declich - Project Anticipation

The debate over the future and
the topic of expectations
By Andrea Declich
Knowledgn & Innovation - Association
Trento, 5 November 2015
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Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Introduction – narrative and
expectations: a necessary relation for
talking about the future
Future and Fundamental Uncertainty
Uncertainty Does Not Prevent Action
Future, Expectations And Narratives
Some topics for research
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1 – Introduction
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Future: a crucial issue for social sciences
Several approaches have been devised for dealing with
this issue (time series analysis, extrapolation, models,
scenarios, etc.)
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Sociologists and economists, in different ways, have
proposed the issue by dealing with expectations (a
review in Declich 2014)
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The issue of expectations is connected with narrative
and storytelling
I will argue that the use of narrative and storytelling is
puzzling and needs further research
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2. FUTURE AND FUNDAMENTAL
UNCERTAINTY/1
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When we talk about the future, we always have to do
with:
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some expected situations
uncertainty about such situations
This is a typical condition we face when we talk about
technological innovation
Possible problems with technological innovation is not the
only cause of our concern about the future
Technological innovation is a good entry point for a reflection
over the future and expectations
Innovation in general is, anyhow, one of the main
characteristic of the future (i.e. “Il Gattopardo” di Tomasi da Lampedusa)
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2. FUTURE AND FUNDAMENTAL
UNCERTAINTY/2
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When we are in a context of innovation “we really
don’t know” what expect us – Past experiences
are of very little help (we are thinking about
something new)
We are facing a context in which strategic
behavior is the rule
coordination among the actors is a critical issue,
especially because it cannot be taken for granted,
or based on past experiences (ie on existing rules,
institutions, routines, visions, etc.)
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2. FUTURE AND FUNDAMENTAL
UNCERTAINTY/3
Not always we are able to face this situation resorting to
games theory or some forecasting device.
 Especially in a context of innovation, we are facing
“crucial” situations (see Davidson 1985 and Shackle), ie
choices to be made just once and that are not recurrent
 In case of innovation, we are in the situation reported by
Steve Jobs, who quoted Henry Ford:
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have
said faster horses.”
 Complex situations:
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We cannot take for granted that the visions of the actors will converge
Too much factors impact the reality and we do not know most of them
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3. UNCERTAINTY DOES NOT
PREVENT ACTION/1
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Anyhow, people and organization face the future,
investments are done, R&D is carried out
Anyhow, people (including scientists, innovators,
companies) coordinate their actions, in a more or less
successful way
Something makes it possible
I just would like to suggest some ideas, based on an
interdisciplinary work on this issue.
People have to have expectations about the future in
order to act (see the work of various scholars, even classics both in
sociology and in economics reported in Declich 2014; see also Shiller
2008; Beckert 2011, Van Lente 2012)
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3. UNCERTAINTY DOES
NOT PREVENT ACTION/2
In general, when we think about the future we have
a typical rhetorical problem:
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“the future – whether composed of certainties or
uncertainties or the inevitable combination of the two – lies
outside the realm of proof (Selin 2008, 1882)
What can be said about the future is only probable, not
certain. What is the future course of the events – is a
matter of plausibility
Entrepreneurs, politicians, dealers can only try to convince
people that their arguments are good, that what they are
saying is probable, not certain
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3. UNCERTAINTY DOES
NOT PREVENT ACTION/3
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When we talk about the future, we need trust, we need
suspension (see Mollering 2001 on Simmel)
Furthermore, the idea we have of the future – our
expectations – impacts on the ways we behave today.
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This is what is called the “forward-looking character” of expectations (on
this agreement between economists and some sociologists (see Brown
and Michael 2003)
Expectations have to be focused on specific objects;
Self fulfilling prophecies consist in forms of coordination on
expectations
Collective behaviors are connected to expectations
Narratives and storytelling are appropriate issues to raise
for talking about how this future oriented actions happen
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4. FUTURE, EXPECTATIONS
AND NARRATIVES/1
There are some research paths and results that suggest to
consider this connection
 Sociology of social movements. In the 90s, scholars of
collective action focused attention on meaning construction
promoted by social movement activists and other parties
(Snow 2004)
 It is relevant the concept of frame as it is presented by
Polletta and Chen (2012) quoting Benford and Snow:
“Frames are sets of beliefs that “assign meaning to and
interpret relevant events and conditions in ways that are
intended to mobilize potential adherents and constituents, to
garner bystander support and to demobilize antagonists”
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4. FUTURE, EXPECTATIONS
AND NARRATIVES/2
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The focus on frame was caused by the fact that dominant
scholarship on social movement did not explain well the
reasons why and the mechanisms through which new
social movements arose, grievances became to being felt
and collective identity took shape (Hunt and Bedford 2004,
437; Davis 2002)
Various authors within this scholarship noted that focusing
on narratives help to overcome problems connected to
the framing approach itself:
overemphasis on cognitive factors and “on logical persuasion and
consensus of belief” (Davis 2002) and, in general,
the difficulties in understanding how and when frames are successful
(Polletta and Chen 2012).
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4. FUTURE, EXPECTATIONS
AND NARRATIVES/3
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Sociology, at least recently, has begun to assign
Storytelling an important place. A significant work is being
done.
Narrative has been considered important also for talking of
the future:
Stories reconfigure the past, endowing it with meaning and
continuity, and so also project a sense of what will or
should happen in the future (Davis 2002, 12).
It’s typical of stories “adding cause and effect to temporal
succession” (Davis 2002, 14)
Nevertheless future does not seems as one of the most
important concerns of social movements scholars
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4. FUTURE, EXPECTATIONS
AND NARRATIVES/4
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The connection of narrative with expectations and the future – at least as
a means for explaining some of the forces and direction of changes - has
been posed by other scholars in different disciplines and sub-disciplines
Konrad, Van Lente and other STS scholars – Expectations should be
understood as appearing in the form of Narratives (Konrad 2006)
Narratives and future are connected also according to outstanding
scholars.
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The Noble Prize winner Shiller documented that the boom phases of stock
exchange where always connected to a sort of “New era economic thinking”
(Shiller 2000).
Together with another Nobel Prize winner, Akerlof, Shiller talked of
storytelling as one of the “animal spirits” (Akerlof & Shiller 2009)
Some authors stresses the idea that visions about the future become
stories (see Declich 2014; Beckert 2011)
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4. FUTURE, EXPECTATIONS
AND NARRATIVES/5
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Narratives produce a wide array of effects on the audiences that is similar
to the “suspension” (see Polletta and Chen 2012) Simmel talked about
Many theorists of narratives talk of the concept of “Suspension of
disbelief” (introduced by Coleridge)
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Suspension of disbelief is a typical effect – or condition – of storytelling (cfr
Salmon 2008; it is fundamental for expectations ie Beckert 2011 and Declich
2014)
But it is not the only effect that storytelling has on us all. Storytelling
produces engagement. Neuroscientists talk about of similar impacts
(Murphy 2012; Gallese 2010);
Scholars studying framing within social movements focused exactly on
the issue of engagement (e.g. Benford and Snow 2000)
Storytelling and narratives appear as important for talking about
the future and its “construction”
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4. FUTURE, EXPECTATIONS
AND NARRATIVES/6
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What is interesting about stories are the following points (Declich
2014)
stories are directly connected with expectations and expectation
formation
stories are powerful tools for engaging and coordinating people
stories are tools for promoting and informing change
The literature on technological innovation reports about the big
effort done for describing the bright future of technologies well
before they demonstrated successful (see Selin 2007 for
Nanotechnologies and the study of Rip and Van Lente 1998 on
membrane technology and other technologies)
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This is not all we should know, of course, but a delimitation of a
possible field of enquiry
SEE EXAMPLE
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5. Some topics for research/1
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How stories emerge and storytelling take place (who define
and promote stories; a lot of work has been done in new
marketing studies, in STS and in political studies (eg Van LenteRip 1998); this is a typical issue raised within the “sociology of
storytelling”
What are the typical structures of stories (a lot of work has
been done by very important narratologists on stories, from Propp
to Campbell and also by authors of fictions’ scripts) and which –
among many – are relevant for a sociological analysis concerning
the future
What are the conditions for having a story? What forms do
they take in different context? Sociology of Social Movements has
gone in depth in this kind of analysis (see Polletta et al. 2011).
An interesting accounts of how people mobilization is carried out
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through storytelling is presented by Ganz (2001)
5. Some topics for research/2
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This stream of literature is mainly focused on collective action.
Nevertheless, one of the outstanding scholars within this
scholarship proposes to distinguish between “collective Action
Frames” from “Everyday Interpretive frames” (Snow 2004,384-5)
It is interesting to explore the possible (and probable) connection
between this second type of framing and narrative/storytelling
Furthermore, my impression – that could change - is that within
sociology storytelling has been considered mainly with reference
to micro-mobilization (Hunt and Benford 2004, 438).
Probably the focus should be on the ways in which some
assumptions about the future are taken for granted by large
audiences not tied together by organizational links (eg the idea
that the real estate market is deemed in perennial growth – the
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golden age Shiller 2000 talked of).
5. Some topics for research/3
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In order to do this, it is necessary to avoid a
simplistic interpretation of stories and of
storytelling exercise (this is the criticism to Salmon
approach that seems to reduce storytelling to a just
new marketing technique, see Berut 2010)
Polletta and Chen (2012) stress that there is a role of
listeners in shaping frames and stories, and the
ways in which stories are enjoyed are very important
(Davis 2002)
Polletta and Cheng (2012) stress that stories depend
on previous stories, and constitute a cultural
backdrop.
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5. Some topics for research/4
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The connection I propose between stories and expectations
should be further developed. It should be kept in mind that there
is not an identification between the two concepts.
Roughly speaking, expectations are specific ideas about the
future that are accepted because their social meaning depend
on shared stories
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Shiller (2008) criticizes the idea of ascertain expectations by simply asking
people what they expect about certain economic variables;
Carrol (2003) holds that people have expectations about prices after being
exposed to comments on the matter from the TV
Expectations scholars stress that there are hypes. Because of
this connection between expectations and narratives, we can
expect that the resilience of certain expectations depends on
the strength of the (set of) narrative(s) they are coupled with.
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5. Some topics for research/5
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Another important aspect is represented by the different
roles the actors play in producing expectations and in
storytelling (eg. The role of scientific entrepreneur in
promoting nanotechnology in the USA Motoyama et al.
2011 or of some important storytellers Selin 2007; see also
Rip & Van Lente, 1998).
Let me underline that it is a field of study that is very
interdisciplinary, and this is one of the difficulties to be
taken into account
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THANK YOU!
[email protected]
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References/1
Akerlof G.A., Shiller R.J. (2009), Animal Spirits. How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why it
Matters for Global Capitalism, Princeton, Princeton University Press.
Beckert J. (2011), Imagined Futures: Fictionality in Economic Action, MPIfG Discussion Paper 11/8
Benford R.D. and Snow D.A (2000), Framing processes and Social Movements: An Overview and
Assessment, in Annualr Review of Sociology, Vol 26 (2000)
Birat J-P., (2014) Steel industry: culture and futures, paper presened at the 8th European Continuous
Casting Conference
Berut B. (2010) Storytelling : une nouvelle propagande par le récit ? Quaderni. Communication,
technologies, pouvoir 72, Printemps 2010 :Propagandes en démocratie, Dossier
Borup M., Brown N., Konrad K., Van Lente H. (2006), The Sociology of expectations in Science and
Technology,«Journal of Technology Analysis & Strategic Management» , Volume 18, Issue 3 & 4
July.
Brown N., Michael M. (2003) A sociology of Expectations: Retrospecting Prospects and Prospecting
Retrospect, «Technology Analysis and Strategic Management», Vol. 15, No. 1.
Bruner J (1991), The Narrative Construction of Reality, «Critical Inquiry», Vol. 18, No. 1 (Autumn).
Carroll C. D. (2003), The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations, April 15,
http://www.econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/EpidemiologySFI.pdf
Davidson P. (1985), Aspettative razionali: un fondamento erroneo per l’analisi dei processi decisionali di
importanza cruciale, Visco I. (a cura di) (1985), Le aspettative nell’analisi economica, Bologna, Il
Mulino
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References/2
Davis J.E. (2002), The Power of Stories, in Davis J.E. (2002) (Ed.), Stories of Change, SUNY Press, New
York
Declich A. (2014), “Observations For An Interdisciplinary Reflection On Expectations And Narratives”,
Quaderni di Sociologia, Torino, N.64/2014 vol. LVIII.
Gallese V. (2010), Postfazione, in Morelli, U., (2010), Mente e bellezza. Arte, creatività e innovazione,
Torino, Umberto Allemandi & C..
Ganz M., (2001), The Power of Story in Social Movements, paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the
American Sociological Association, Anaheim, California, August
Hunt S.A., Benford R.D. (2004), Collective Identity, Sodlidarity and Commitment, in Snow D.A., Soule S.
A., Kriesi H. (eds.) (2004), The Blackwell Companion to Social Movements, Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Konrad K., (2006), Shifting but forceful expectations: structuring through the prospect of materialisation,
paper presentato al Twente VII workshop su “Material Narratives – of Technology in Society”,
Enschede, October 19-21
Mollering G., (2001) “The Nature of Trust: From Georg Simmel to a Theory of Expectation, Interpretation
and Suspension”, in Sociology, Vol. 35, No. 2
Motoyama Y., Appelbaum R., Parker R. (2011) The National Nanotechnology Initiative: Federal support
for science and technology, or hidden industrial policy?, in Technology in Society 33 (2001) 109-118
Murphy Paul A. (2012), Your Brain on Fiction, «New York Times» on line, 17 marzo,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/opinion/sunday/the-neuroscience-of-your-brain-onfiction.html?_r=3&pagewanted=al&
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References/3
Polletta F., Chen P.C.B., Gardner B,g., Motes A. (2011), The Sociology of Storytelling, in The Annual
Review of Sociology, 2011, 37:109-30
Polletta F., Ghen P.C.B. (2012), Narrative and Social Movements, in Alexander J.C., Jacobs R. and Smith
P. (2012) (Eds), The Oxford Handbook of Cultural Sociology, Oxford University Press
Rip A., Van Lente H. (1998), Expectations in Technological Developments: An Example of Prospective
Structures to be Filled in by Agency, in Disco C., Van der Meulen B., (a cura di) (1998), Getting New
Technologies Together. Studies in Making Sociotechnical Order, Berlin New York, Walter de Gruyter
Salmon C. (2008), Storytelling. La fabbrica delle idee, Roma, Fazi Editore
Selin C. (2007) Expectations and the Emergence of Nanotechnology, «Science, Technology & Human
Values», Volume 32, number 2, March
Selin C. (2008), The Sociology of the Future: Tracing Stories of Technology and Time, in Sociology
Compass 2/6 (2008): 1878–1895, 10.1111/j.1751-9020.2008.00147.x
Shiller R.J, (2000), Euforia irrazionale. Alti e bassi della borsa, Bologna, Il Mulino
Shiller R.J. (2008), Expectations, «The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics», Second Edition, New
York, Palgrave McMillan.
Snow D.A. (2004) “Framing Processes, Ideology and Discursive Fields”, in Sno D.A., Soule S.A., Kriesi H.
(Eds), (2004), The Blackwell Companion to Social Movements, Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Van Lente H. (2012), Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of
expectations, «Technology Analysis & Strategic Management», 24:8, 769-782
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Il Gattopardo
Even conservative politics needs innovation. It is
the famous sentence of the Italian novel of
Giuseppe Tomasi da Lampedusa, “Il Gattopardo”:
 «Se vogliamo che tutto rimanga come è, bisogna
che tutto cambi»
 « For everything to remain as it is, everything has
to change»
 also known as “gattopardismo”
(“gattopardism”???)
Back

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Example – Narratives about
steel/1
Stories are told by someone. A researcher I am working with
specialized on materials and especially steel, selected
several narratives about steel, each told by different actors
(Birat 2014):
 Steel Process Technologists
 Economists and business people
 Historians
 Advocacy actors
 Metallurgists
 Etc.
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Example – Narratives about
steel/2
This is an example of the possible stories told for proposing about steel and
its production and for proposing innovation policies in this field.
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1st steel production has been exploding since 2000 and this is likely to
continue for a long time!
2nd This trend is regional
3th Europe is still mired in a depression. The narrative therefore tells of
overcapacities
4th Technical progress has not stalled but has become almost exclusively
incremental compared to the breakthrough technologies developed in the
XX century
5th Europe is still a world leader in steel, in term of steel intensity, steel
technology and steel solutions
6th Many innovation drivers have stalled or saturated, except at the margin.
The sustainability driver is still idling and ready to go!
7th Innovation and the risk of the death valley
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Example – Narratives about
steel/3
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What can be highlighted in Birat’s work on these narratives
is that Stories are not told by chance There is always some
intentionality;
A vision of the world and an identity of the tellers is
connected to the stories; (Bruner 1991, connects narrative
to the construction of reality)
Although these stories are not coherent, they are not
mutually exclusive
Stories have many interesting characteristic but now I
focus on just some, the most connected to the construction
of the future.
Back
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