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North Sea Sustainable Development Framework A practical tool for innovation and development for a resilient, stable and sustainable North Sea economy that operates within safe environmental limits and delivers social value. phication Eutro n e t rit i o im e Ac ta bl Bi ge Environmental Boundaries North Sea Sustainable Development Framework anc e Social Foundations od iv e n cou er n id ov Ev us Inf or m atio n y lt h s it an d Hea er li Cl an e nc atio n n d e r s i li c re G pa ri n ch Re Re y ce Em th Nu ili t y Ma tte e North Sea Sustainable Development Framework Mob t Trus at E tio ca du Ener gy Inc en Re Inter so dep u en de Communica tio n e nc n Seabed inte gri ty Po llu ti Sa f e mism ty g ter H n u m Lo a e Culture om Equity ation dific aci an ce O rity ecu on dS Skills an hts rig n es rc La Human Needs The North Sea is one of the most heavily exploited maritime regions in the world. The combined impacts of the range of human activities there are damaging the North Sea ecosystem to unsustainable levels – and use of it is increasing. If we are to continue to benefit from this valuable ecosystem, we need to develop a sustainable North Sea economy that operates within safe environmental limits while enriching peoples’ lives. The North Sea The North Sea is a coastal sea bordered by England, Scotland, Norway, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and France. In the southwest, beyond the Straits of Dover, the North Sea becomes the English Channel which connects to the Atlantic Ocean. Rich in nutrients, it is also very productive. For centuries, the sea has provided its neighbouring peoples with food, energy, a transport system and more, as well as ensuring a stable and comfortable climate. Its coastline is one of the most densely populated in the world, and is home to some of the world’s largest cities1. The North Sea has some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world2, and two of the world’s largest ports are situated on its coast. Economic uses of the North Sea include shipping, utility lines, fishing, minerals extraction, oil and gas extraction, offshore wind farms, and tourism. The cumulative impacts of human activities, and particularly of the industries operating there, are taking a heavy toll on the North Sea environment. Overfishing, damaging industry practices, noise, pollution and litter, for example, and the increasing effects of climate change are disrupting and degrading marine ecosystems, some to the point from which they may not recover3. The large and growing intensity of activities in a limited marine space is an increasing problem environmentally, socially and economically. To continue to reap the riches of the North Sea, we need to be better stewards of it. There is an urgent need for industries, governments, communities and others to work together to preserve this increasingly fragile ecosystem; to innovate and develop ways of using the North Sea that can meet the needs of both present and future generations. www.forumforthefuture.org About the framework To create successful businesses and societies in the long term, we need to think sustainably. The North Sea Sustainable Development Framework has been developed specifically to help organisations operating in the North Sea region to do that. A practical tool that identifies the boundaries and conditions for a sustainable North Sea, it’s designed to help you identify the big issues, risks and opportunities; to develop and test your strategy, inform decisions, and drive new innovation. This framework, specific to the North Sea region, is based on the Sustainable Economy Framework – also called Horizons – which was developed by Forum for the Future, Innovate UK and Aviva Investors. It defines what we mean by a sustainable economy – one that operates within safe environmental limits and delivers social value. The North Sea Sustainable Economy Framework identifies the environmental boundaries that keep the sea and surrounding environment in good health, the social and political foundations that enable societies to flourish in the region, and the essential needs for us human beings to survive and thrive. Each of these is broken down into a number of topics. Together, they can help you work towards delivering a sustainable future, in and around the North Sea. Forum for the Future, May 2015 Forum for the Future Forum for the Future is an independent non-profit that works globally with business, government and other organisations to solve complex sustainability challenges. We aim to transform the critical systems that we all depend on, such as food and energy, to make them fit for the challenges of the 21st century. We have over 19 years’ experience inspiring new thinking, building creative partnerships and developing practical innovations to change our world. We share what we learn from our work so that others can become more sustainable. System innovation is at the heart of our strategy. One of our key approaches is creating innovation coalitions, bringing together groups to solve bigger sustainability challenges - including those that work across whole value chains. Another of our approaches is helping pioneering businesses go further, faster. Discover our stories and what we’ve learned about building a sustainable world at www. forumforthefuture.org, and find us on Facebook and Twitter. End notes European Commission, (2014) “European Atlas of the Sea: North Sea Facts”, [Online], Available: http://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/atlas/seabasins/northsea/long/index_en.htm 1 OSPAR Commission, (2010) “Quality Status Report, Region II: The Greater North Sea”, [Online], Available: http://qsr2010.ospar.org/en/ch12_02.html 2 European Union Committee, (2015) “The North Sea Under Pressure”, Chapter 2, [Online], Available: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ ldeucom/137/13705.htm 3 www.forumforthefuture.org How to use this framework The North Sea Sustainable Development Framework is a tool to help you understand the big issues and trends coming your way, and stimulate thinking and discussion about how you should respond to them. You can use it independently, or with a group. Below are some suggestions for using it, which can be adapted to suit your individual circumstances. 1. Consider your objectives: what do you want to accomplish by using the framework? Keep it focused. 2. Involve the right people: include those who bring different perspectives and experience to encourage new ideas and cross-fertilisation. 3. Explore and discuss: think / talk about the topics that are most critical and/or you haven’t thought about much. Remember that topics that don’t seem connected at first glance may provoke new insights and ideas. You can use the following questions to help drive your discussion: • What are the challenges and opportunities this topic presents to your organisation? Think about the life cycle of your products/services. What and where are the impacts? • Translate each statement for your sector e.g. ‘everyone has reliable energy sources’. • What are the potential risks e.g. to your supply chain or customer base? • What opportunities may it open up? • How are these driving changes to your market? • How are you uniquely placed to contribute something to this? • What are the commercial opportunities arising from this? • What can you do? Write a one-sentence summary. • Review all the summaries. What’s your overall contribution to a sustainable North Sea economy and region? • How can you achieve this? 4. Prioritise areas and actions to take forward. Individual risks and opportunities can be presented in a matrix to aid prioritisation. Example axes could be ‘level of commercial opportunity’ and ‘risk’. 5. Take action: the framework does not tell you how to achieve your goals, but logical next steps might include: map out your role in taking opportunities identified forward, develop an action plan and integrate thinking into your normal business planning or innovation process. Let us know what you think. How have you used the framework? What did you experience? How could they be improved? Get in touch to share your views, or if you need help facilitating a workshop. Contact: Charlene Collison at Forum for the Future on [email protected] www.forumforthefuture.org Climate change The average global temperature must not rise more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Environmental Boundaries Climate change What is climate change? Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, are being produced by human activity faster than natural processes can remove them, and are accumulating in the atmosphere. As a result Earth’s average temperature is rising which leads to a number of effects including changes in weather patterns, more extreme conditions and a rise in sea levels. Why is this critical? The temperature of the seawater across the North Sea is rising, increasing between 0.023°C/year (in the northern North Sea) and 0.053°C/year (in the central and southern North Sea).1 It is currently the second fastest warming large marine ecosystem in the world2, with major implications for its ecosystems, biodiversity and food webs. As the water warms, species are migrating, altering the ecosystem distribution. Research has indicated that nearly two-thirds of species have shifted in mean latitude or depth over the last 25 years,3 with new species continuing to enter the waters of the North Sea. Plankton, a foundation of the North Sea food web, is particularly sensitive to changes in climate, and changes in their seasonal cycles will have implications across many other species.4 There have also been suggestions that rising temperatures have led to a decrease in size of some species, and could result in significant changes to productivity, with implications for fisheries.5 The North sea is expected to see more frequent extreme weather events and a continued rise in sea levels, with significant impacts for both coastal communities and businesses operating in the North Sea region.6,7 In one scenario that leads to a rise of 3.5ºC in 2085, it was projected that sea levels at the Dutch North Sea coast could have risen by between 45cm and 80cm.8 As a large body of water, the North Sea plays an important role as a carbon sink. Currently world’s oceans absorb more than 26% of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere from human activities, resulting in increased ocean acidity. Implications: • must demonstrate an understanding of – and develop strategies to address – the full range of risks and opportunities posed by climate change; • must reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with global reduction of [6-9%] year on year; • should ensure that products and services are best-in-class, and fit-for-purpose, in a carbon constrained world; • should play a role in adapting natural and human systems to the inevitable impacts of climate change; • should be a vocal and effective advocate for the broad societal action on climate change. www.forumforthefuture.org Coastal Land Use Coastal land must be used in a way that meets both human and broader ecosystem needs. Environmental Boundaries Coastal Land Use What is coastal land use? The coastline of the North Sea provides a habitat for an array of plants and animals, is home to many communities and used by industries that include tourism, industry, fishing, trade and transport. The coastal watershed extends well inland, at the beginning headwaters of the streams and rivers that ultimately drain down to the coastal areas. Why is this critical? The North Sea has one of the most densely populated coastlines in the world and is home to significant levels of commerce,9 which leads to competing pressures for coastal land from resident communities, species habitat and industry such as shipping, fisheries and tourism. The availability, condition, spatial distribution and intensity of coastal land use is critically important for the production of food, regulation of freshwater flows, flood defence, maintaining biodiversity, important habitats and other ecosystems services. Impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels and increasing extreme weather events, have led to a greater need for coastal protection measures as coastal erosion impacts on land availability.10 Soft-engineering coastal structures, such as dunes and salt marshes, are increasingly being employed to act as natural buffers against rising tides. They absorb and dissipate the force of the sea and reduce the risk to people and development. Their economic value for flood and coastal defence alone is huge.11 The presence of large scale industry and development of coastal land can lead to pollution of surrounding marine ecosystems, contribute to biodiversity loss through habitat destruction and disrupt availability of resources.12 Implications: • must avoid excessive use of coastal land and not further deteriorate coastal land condition; • must not hinder the functioning of the ecosystem services that coastal land provides; • should restore land to former or improved condition after it has been damaged or altered. www.forumforthefuture.org Seabed integrity The seabed of the North Sea must be used in a way that meets both human and broader ecosystem needs. Environmental Boundaries Seabed integrity What is seabed integrity? The seabed, or sea floor, is the surface at the bottom of the ocean. In the North Sea it is mostly made up of sediment of varying sizes.13 Integrity describes the extent, unity and functioning of the seabed ecosystems. Why is this critical? The biodiversity of the North Sea seabed is comparable to tropical forests and temperate pastures in terms of productivity and building resilience in the marine system. A single square metre of sea floor may contain over 6000 organisms from over 300 species.14 It provides essential ecosystem services, including recycling biological material to release nutrients, trap contaminants and carbon.15 Human activity has impacted on the seabed for centuries, including fishing, aggregate extraction, oil pipelines and dredging. Bottom trawling fishing, towing a net along the sea floor, can reduce the biomass present on the seabed by over half, disrupting food webs and habitats. In some areas it can take up to 15 years for the seabed to recover from the effects.16 There is increasing demand from surrounding countries for sand and gravel extracted from the North Sea for both coastal defences and infrastructure projects. Altering the shape and nature of the seabed could affect the coastline and associated erosion. Some recent evidence from the United Kingdom part of the North Sea suggests that recovery periods can be prolonged i.e. more than 7 years, especially where sites have been dredged repeatedly at high intensities.17 Implications: • must minimise the impact of activities on the seabed; • must allow for recovery where damage has occurred; • should take measures to protect North Sea seabed ecosystems where possible. www.forumforthefuture.org Eutrophication Control the amount of excess nutrient, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus that enter the North Sea. Environmental Boundaries Eutrophication What is eutrophication? Eutrophication is caused by excess nutrients, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, in water bodies, which can lead to accelerated growth of algae. Why is this critical? Accelerated algae growth on the water surface from eutrophication can deprive other marine plants of sunlight, causing them to die. This can ultimately result in anoxic – oxygen-depleted – conditions and ecosystem disruption when dead organic material sinks to the seabed and is degraded by bacteria. The resulting changes in structure and functioning of marine ecosystems can lead to problems for the fishing, mariculture and tourism industries. Most of the sources of nutrients that enter the North Sea are linked to human activity and mainly affect the coastal areas.18 Nitrogen mainly originates from the leaching of agricultural soils and urban wastewater: intensive farming covers up to 70% of the land that drains into the North Sea.19 Phosphorus is mainly linked to urban wastewater and soil erosion.20 Historically, severe eutrophication effects have occurred in various coastal areas of the North Sea, such as a die-off of mussels in Dutch estuaries, fish and invertebrate kills in fjords and toxic hydrogen sulphide release from rotting algae in the UK.21 Nutrient run off levels have decreased significantly in the past decades,22 but more can still be done. Implications: • must not lead to nitrogen or phosphorus pollution; • must use nitrogen and phosphorus more efficiently, especially in agriculture; • should recycle nitrogen and phosphorus from waste water systems. www.forumforthefuture.org Ocean acidification The concentration of acid compounds in the North Sea should be reduced to pre-industrial levels. Environmental Boundaries Ocean acidification What is ocean acidification? When CO2 dissolves in seawater, carbonic acid is formed and the ocean becomes more acidic. Increasing acidification is a result of rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. Why is this critical? Our oceans have become approximately 30% more acidic since the beginning of the industrial revolution, due to rising carbon emissions.23 In the North Sea, heavily frequented shipping lanes also add to acidification as exhaust gases are transformed into sulphuric acid and nitric acid.24 As the ocean waters become more acidic, calcifying organisms like corals, mussels, algae and plankton are less able to produce carbonate shells and skeletons, making them vulnerable to dissolution. This includes commerciallyvaluable species such as molluscs and crustaceans, impacting upon harvest levels, revenue generation and livelihoods. Both the growth rate and distribution of cold water corals in the North Sea will be affected. One study has found that a 0.3 unit decline in pH reduced growth by 56% in Lophelia pertusa.25 Ocean acidification is a global threat but impacts will be felt at the local and regional level. It is predicted that by 2100 ocean acidity could increase by 170% compared with pre-industrial levels. This is 10 times faster than any such change in the last 55 million years.26 Areas across the North Sea will be impacted differently by ocean acidification as ecosystems respond in a variety of ways. Ocean acidification may also reduce the ability of the ocean to absorb CO2,27 meaning that as we move into the future, more carbon will remain in the atmosphere and contribute to climate change. Implications: • must radically reduce emissions of CO2; • should help ecosystems and human systems adapt to ocean acidification. www.forumforthefuture.org Natural Resources Stocks of non-renewable resources in the North Sea must not be depleted faster than the introduction of substitutes or discovery of new sources, and stocks of renewable resources must be managed sustainably to meet both human and broader ecosystem needs. Environmental Boundaries Natural Resources What are natural resources? North Sea natural resources are anything that humans can use which is gathered from the natural environment. A natural resource is non-renewable if it cannot be replaced at the rate at which it is being consumed (e.g. fossil fuels and aggregates) and renewable if regenerated by natural processes within a reasonable timeframe (e.g. biomass, water, solar power, wind energy and carefully managed fish populations). Why is this critical? Increasing pressure on resources (e.g. through population growth and growing per capita consumption), combined with increasing scarcity of non-renewable resources and overuse of renewable resources, will drive up competition, volatility and cost. This increases the need for more efficient and sustainable use, recycling, and development of alternative materials. Since 1964, over 40 billion barrels of oil have been extracted from the North Sea,28 but production levels have steadily declined since 1999. As oil becomes harder to extract, costs are rising and whilst this may satisfy an immediate need for energy, it will add to climate change through both extraction and fuel use. Overfishing in the North Sea has led to the decline in population of a number of species. British catches, for example, have declined by 94% over 118 years.29 Governments in the region have put quotas in place for some of these species to support replenishment; the EU Common Fisheries Policy sets quotas for member states maximum sustainable yield to recover depleted fish stocks by 2020.30 Each year across the North Sea region, approximately 40 – 48 million cubic metres of marine mineral deposits, such as sand and gravel, are extracted from the seabed for the construction industry or beach nourishment.31 Demand for marine sand and gravel is likely to increase as a result of sea level rise. Implications: • must not exploit stocks of renewable resources beyond their recovery point; • must utilise valuable renewable resources, like wind and solar power, in place of non-renewable resources where possible; • must reduce depletion rates of non-renewable resource stocks; • should build stocks and flows of renewable resources; • should improve the material efficiency of the economy, for example by developing closed- loop material systems. www.forumforthefuture.org Pollution Release of contaminants must be controlled in such a way as to eliminate any damage to natural systems and human health. Environmental Boundaries Pollution What is pollution? Pollution includes contaminants (chemicals, noise, heat or light) resulting from human activities which enter the environment and cause adverse change to air, water, soil, or tissues of plants and animals. These include run-off from industry or agriculture, under-treated sewage (containing pharmaceutical residues), as well as air pollution from ships and industry. Why is this critical? Agricultural practices, coastal tourism, infrastructure developments, damming of rivers, urban development, oil and gas extraction, shipping, fisheries and manufacturing are all sources of pollution in the North Sea. Approximately 20% of sea pollution comes from the deliberate dumping of oil and other wastes from ships, accidental spills and offshore oil drilling.32 Pollution damages the marine environment and can threaten human health. It can be slow-acting but cumulative; persistent organic pollutants are not quickly broken down by natural processes into harmless materials. Pollutants accumulate in animal tissue and can be amplified as they pass up the food chain, with a variety of impacts, from direct toxic effects on humans (such as increased risk of cancers and birth defects), to damaging whole ecosystems.33 Although many hazardous materials have been partly or completely banned from use in the North Sea region - including tributyltin, an antifouling paint and PCBs – many are still being released into the environment.34 Noise generated by human activity (drilling, mining etc.) can potentially affect marine organisms in a variety of ways, both physically and behaviourally. However, there are many uncertainties remaining in the assessment of noise related impact.35 Implications: • must not increase the burden of persistent pollutants on the environment; • should reduce overall burden of pollution by substitution with less or nonhazardous alternatives if identified; • could help remove chemical pollution from the environment; • must adhere to REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) and the Basel and Rotterdam and Stockholm conventions on toxic waste, hazardous chemicals and persistent organic pollutants. www.forumforthefuture.org Marine litter Human-created solid material must be prevented from entering the North Sea. Environmental Boundaries Marine litter What is marine litter? Marine litter is human-created solid material that has deliberately or accidentally been released into the sea. This includes litter such as plastics and metals, as well as lost fishing debris and shipping containers. Much of the monitored marine litter is plastic, which degrades very slowly over hundreds of years.36 Why is this critical? Over 20,000 tons of marine litter enters into the North Sea annually, flowing in from waterways and through deliberate dumping. Much of this poses a threat to species and has the potential to disrupt ecosystems and industries. Plastic waste is a particular problem, with its longevity and tendency to break down into much smaller particles known as ‘microplastics’, which are found in some cosmetic and cleaning products. These are ingested by, and accumulate in, various species, which also exposes them to the potentially harmful chemicals that become attached to these microplastics. They are particularly harmful to lugworms, which perform an important role in keeping the ocean sediment healthy, and over 90% of fulmars have microscopic plastic particles in their stomachs. Larger waste items also pose a risk to the North Sea ecosystem, with huge numbers of fish lost each year to “ghost fishing”, when they are caught in nets or other fishing gear that has been lost at sea. This waste can also end up on North Sea beaches, with environmental and cost implications for the relative authorities. The economic costs of clean-up are significant, with municipalities in the UK alone spending an estimated €18 million per annum on beach cleaning. Implications: • must ensure that waste does not enter the North Sea environment; • must follow the reduce, reuse and recycle hierarchy; • should explore using waste as a resource; • could apply closed loop processes (where waste or by-product is used to make another product). www.forumforthefuture.org Biodiversity Biodiversity should be maintained, with the species extinction rate no higher than the estimated background rate of 10 species per million per year. Environmental Boundaries Biodiversity What is biodiversity? Biodiversity is the variability among living organisms within species, between species and between ecosystems. Why is this critical? The North Sea is one of the world’s most varied and productive marine ecosystems and provides the region with a hub for productive fisheries and active tourist industry.37 It is home to several species of marine mammals and some 10 million seabirds are present at most times of the year.38 Rich biodiversity enhances the resilience of ecosystems against shocks and in turn, supports many of the regional industries. In the North Sea region, 29 species39 and ten habitats40 are considered to be threatened or in decline: overfishing has reduced certain stocks and affected habitats, whilst warming temperatures have seen species migrate northwards, blurring the previously stable boundaries between species habitats. However, many new species have emerged, through migration or ballast water and new potential habitats have appeared, including oil rigs and offshore wind farms.41 Threats in marine systems are poorly understood but it appears that overexploitation is presently the greatest threat to marine species, followed by habitat loss.42 Fishing quotas and marine protected areas have been established to protect the diversity of the North Sea ecosystem for future generations. Implications: • must reduce rate of loss of biodiversity; • must reduce impact of operations on North Sea habitats; • should build biodiversity locally and globally, and encourage broad societal action on biodiversity; • should contribute to the development of a common global standard for valuing biodiversity and ecosystem services. www.forumforthefuture.org ENDNOTES 1 Verhofstede, Ingle and De Sutter (2011) 32 UNEP (n.d.) 2 Sherman and Hempel (2009) 33 WWF (n.d.) 3 Ponsar, Ozer and Van den Eynde (2008) 34 OSPAR Commission (2010) 4 Van Den Akker (2011) 35 Thomsen, F. (2009) 5 University of Aberdeen News (2014) 36 OSPAR Commission (2010) 6 IOC/UNESCO, IMO, FAO, UNDP (2011) 37 OSPAR Commission (2000) 7 Bawden (2013) 38 OSPAR Commission, (n.d.) 8 KNMI (2014) 39 OSPAR Commission (2010) 9 OSPAR Commission (n.d.) 40 OSPAR Commission (2010) 10 Ecorys (2012) 41 Van Den Akker (2011) 11 RSPB (n.d.) 42 IUCN (2007) 12 European Environment Agency (2011) 13 Paramor et al (2009) 14 Paramor et al (2009) 15 AFBI and NIEA (2011) 16 Van Den Akker (2011) 17 Cooper et al. (2005) 18 Ærtebjerg et al. (2001) 19 OSPAR Commission (2010) 20 Ærtebjerg et al. (2001) 21 Van Den Akker (2011) 22 CBS, PBL and Wageningen University (2003) 23 Noone, Sumaila and Diaz (2012) 24 Beijer, C. (2013) 25 Lophelia (n.d.) 26 IGBP, IOC, SCOR (2013) 27 Noone, Sumaila and Diaz (2012) 28 BBC (2014) 29 Thurstan, Brockington and Roberts (2010) 30 European Commission (n.d.) 31 OSPAR Commission (2010) www.forumforthefuture.org Energy There must be fair and equitable access to sustainable energy from the North Sea. Human Needs Energy What is energy? Energy is the ability or capacity of a physical system to do work. Energy exists in many forms such as heat, kinetic, chemical or mechanical energy, light, potential energy and electrical. The North Sea is a source of energy including wind, tidal, wave, biomass and fossil fuels that is essential to meeting societal needs. Why is this critical? All societies depend on sources of energy to meet essential needs such as the growing and preparation of food, warmth, and the production of goods and materials. Access to and use of energy in various forms is fundamental to achieving and maintaining quality of life. The North Sea provides key resources for the production of energy. Historically, these have been non-renewable resources such as oil and gas, although there is now a movement towards renewable energies such as wind, wave and tidal power, and farming of biofuels (e.g. algae). North Sea oil and gas production has declined since its peak in 19991 to approximately 1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in 20142. In total 547 above-water platforms and 534 subsea structures are spread across the North Sea3. The increasing deployment of offshore renewable generation is widely supported as one of the key ways to achieve Kyoto targets for emissions reduction. A large proportion of the existing and proposed European offshore wind turbine sites are located in the North Sea. There are 28 operational wind farms; eight of them in the UK, 11 in Denmark, 4 in the Netherlands, 3 in Germany and 2 in Belgium4, with substantial additions being prepared due to rising energy demand from growing populations. Implications: • must use energy as efficiently as possible; • should use energy from renewable sources whenever possible; • should explore innovative solutions in energy supply, demand, storage and distribution to provide fair and equitable access to energy. www.forumforthefuture.org Recreation People must have access to natural spaces for exercise, enjoyment and relaxation. Human Needs Recreation What is recreation? Activity that refreshes a person’s health or spirit through enjoyment and relaxation. Why is this critical? Recreation – and the time and space to do it – is an essential human need. Recreation enables people to balance the stresses of life and work, to connect with themselves, to one another and to the natural world. The North Sea is an important area for recreational pursuits and attracts many visitors. The North Sea coastal zone is used intensively for recreation activities including water sports, sailing, angling, ecotourism and sightseeing. Archaeological remains and shipwrecks are part of the marine heritage, attracting both scholars and tourists. Tourism has increased steadily; in the ten year period between 1998 and 2008 tourist arrivals in the North Sea Region increased by almost 40%11, with a significant proportion of tourist activity concentrated in the coastal zone. The growth of tourism has brought economic benefits to communities in the region, but has been accompanied by significant challenges, with increasing demand for resources and impacts such as marine litter, increased congestion, etc. Implications: • must balance the needs of recreational activities with industry; • must conduct recreational activities in ways that support and are compatible with the needs of the environment. www.forumforthefuture.org Income People in the North Sea region must have the opportunity to earn income at a level sufficient to live well and fulfil basic needs. Human Needs Income What is income? Income is money or equivalent received in exchange for labour or services, sale of goods or as profit from investment. This is sufficient if it allows for the satisfaction of basic needs that include food, water and sanitation, energy, shelter, healthcare and education (on the basis that these are available). The North Sea is the source of income for individuals and communities through activities including fishing, tourism and resource extraction. Why is this critical? The North Sea is one of the most prosperous areas in the European Union. Its maritime economy is estimated to represent a GVA of at least € 150 billion (out of just under € 500 billion for the EU as a whole) and it employs at least 850,000 people (out of 5.4 million people for the EU as a whole) 5. The economic importance of ports is substantial, with the added value of Dutch seaports in 2013 estimated at €22.24 billion with direct employment of 170,0006. Large areas of the North Sea Region are dependent on shrinking markets in primary labour (e.g. fishing and agriculture in Norway and Denmark) and declining traditional industrial sectors (e.g. Germany and the UK). This presents a challenge to organisations and local economies. Unemployment in the region is below the EU average, although there are pockets of worklessness, and in some regions there are high numbers of low paid jobs. There are some significant regional differences in per capita GDP, ranging from a low of €18,200 in the Scottish Highlands and Islands (UK) to a high of around €67,900 in Oslo (Norway) 7. In recent years, growth in certain industries (such as aquaculture in Norway) has helped boost income and employment in the North Sea region. Efficiency improvements in technology and practices have meant that some sectors (such as caught fishing) see an increase in income, but a decrease in the number of people employed. Implications: • must offer at least a living wage to all employees regardless of gender, age, experience or other factors; • should provide employment opportunities for people from local communities wherever possible; • should support sustainable economic growth policies. www.forumforthefuture.org Health and nutrition People must have the opportunity to lead healthy, active lives with sources of adequate nutrition. Human Needs Health and nutrition What is it? Health is state of physical, mental, and social well-being that allows an individual to participate to their full potential in society and the economy. Adequate nutrition through food and drink is essential for health and growth. Why is this critical? Health is essential to leading a fulfilling life and contributes to a wide range of positive social and economic outcomes. Good health is linked to economic growth, political stability and reduced likelihood of conflict. A fundamental component of a healthy lifestyle is adequate nutrition and the North Sea is an important source of both nutrition and resources used for health products. Fish and seafood are a source of essential nutrients including protein and fatty acids, necessary for physical health. The North Sea supplies approximately one million tonnes of fish a year for human consumption compared to the EU annual consumption per capita of 24.5kh, a total of 12.3 million tonnes. 12 Due to historic overfishing, many North Sea fish stocks are in decline and both voluntary and regulatory measures have been put in place to help replenish these stocks by 2020. 13 Despite declining fish stocks in the North Sea in recent years there has been growth in aquaculture in the area, allowing seafood production to remain stable. Norway is the largest seafood producing nation in Europe and fish farming has overtaken caught fish in exports. 14 Implications: • must meet needs for human nutrition within safe environmental limits; • should promote public policies which incentivise proper nutrition. • should explore and develop alternative sustainable sources of nutrition. www.forumforthefuture.org Education There must be universal access to education throughout the North Sea region. Human Needs Education What is education? The process of acquiring knowledge and understanding. Why is this critical? Access to education is critical to people’s livelihoods. Sustained access to meaningful learning that can be applied is essential for long-term improvements in productivity, well-being, wealth, health and equality. The education and training of a country’s workforce is a key factor in determining productivity levels and business growth. The benefits of education are also felt through lower crime, increased civic participation, better health and so on. The North Sea itself is a vital resource for learning, research and exploration, and income taken from the North Sea resources are re-invested into continued learning. As such, parts of the region are amongst the top performers in Europe in terms of highly-educated population and expenditure on R&D. The North Sea region is a European stronghold in innovation capacity and resource, with clusters of educational facilities in areas of high economic prosperity. A key challenge for the area is to use transnational cooperation to share the learning derived from the North Sea through collaboration between public and private sectors, and between education and research institutions9. Implications: • must ensure people have full access to education and educational opportunities; • should improve standards and consistency of education; • could include sustainable development issues in teaching and learning; • could create opportunities for sharing learning across sectors, institutions and organisations. www.forumforthefuture.org Culture Society is built on a strong cultural identity tied to the North Sea that affects its inhabitants’ behaviour and lives. Human Needs Culture What is it? Culture is the shared knowledge, values, customs and behaviour of a particular people or society. Through culture people make meaning, create a sense of belonging, and determine the norms and values that shape our lives. Why is this critical? A rich cultural life is an intrinsic part of a sustainable society: it provides the context in which people work together towards a shared future. The North Sea region has a rich historical and cultural heritage, characterised by strong trade links and productive maritime industries. The decline of these traditional livelihoods can be damaging to local economies and lead to the loss of cultural traditions and skills - for example, small scale fishing in Norway. Prosperity acquired through farming North Sea resources has provided fertile ground for the growth and development of culture and art, with numerous notable artists being inspired by the seascape and North Sea region, such as William Turner and Hendrick Vroom. The North Sea region holds sites of archaeological and ancient cultural interest. The Doggerland landmass in the North Sea was a rich habitat for humans in the Mesolithic period, although rising sea levels gradually reduced the land mass. There have been numerous archaeological finds in many areas of land reclaimed by the North Sea, for example in the extension of the Port of Rotterdam.8. Implications: • should preserve and protect objects and areas of cultural value and significance; • could contribute to the enjoyment and development of cultural life and experiences. www.forumforthefuture.org Mobility Ensure that everyone has the ability to access goods, education, services, people and work. Human Needs Mobility What is mobility? The ability to meet society’s need for people and goods to be able to move around and maintain social and economic connections. Why is this critical? The North Sea is critical for both freight and passenger transport. It contains Europe’s largest commercial ports, and freight routes from Dunkirk to Hamburg via Rotterdam. However, it faces enormous challenges if it is to break the reliance of transport on fossil fuels, particularly given that transport flows continue to increase. An increasing number of smaller ports have been closing their commercial operations in recent years due to increased competition between ports in the North Sea region. There is a need to develop the secondary connections in the North Sea region, i.e. connecting regional port and railway links to international transport networks to improve their status as international hubs, limiting the reliance on local, over congested road networks. Short sea shipping, which encompasses the movement of cargo and passengers mainly by sea without directly crossing an ocean, could play a vital role in developing countries’ future transport systems by creating a more sustainable, low-carbon supply chain and green economy jobs. More efficient short-sea shipping techniques decrease reliance on more carbon intensive modes of transport, such as aviation or road transport, including under sea tunnels.10 Implications: • must balance the mobility needs of business and society with the planet’s ability to support them; • must prioritise mobility systems that are low carbon, safe, affordable, efficient and promote healthy lifestyles; • should reflect the full environmental and social costs in mobility pricing; • should explore different business models to fulfil needs for access. www.forumforthefuture.org ENDNOTES 1 Paramor et al (2009) 2 Scottish Government (2014) 3 Van Den Akker (2011) 4 4C Offshore (2015) 5 Ecorys (2012) 6 Havenmonitor (2014) 7 Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme (2014) 8 Wikipedia (2015) The Interreg North Sea Region Programme is looking at clustering these programmes to promote sustainable innovation in the region to join up currently disparate learning in the area. 9 10 Ecorys (2012) 11 Paramor et al (2009) 12 Agritrade (2014) 13 OSPAR Commission (2010) 14 Norwegian Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal Affairs (2013) www.forumforthefuture.org Interdependence All enterprises in the North Sea region should consider the interdependence of human and natural systems. Social Foundations Interdependence What is interdependence? Interdependence refers to the critical links within and between human and natural systems. Human societies are reliant on marine ecosystems for life-sustaining resources, ecosystem services and recreation; and human activities have impacts upon these ecosystems. Why is this critical? The healthy functioning of North Sea ecosystems is important for human livelihoods and well-being. Human activities such as fishing, shipping, tourism and energy generation impact upon these ecosystems and on other users. For example, fishing techniques such as bottom trawling (towing a net along the sea floor) can disrupt entire habitats and food webs, and ultimately affect the region’s tourism industry. Fisheries have the greatest impact on North Sea ecosystem, along with the release of trace organic contaminants, and nutrients, though impacts of other activities in combination are also significant.1 Human impacts cannot be assessed in isolation: the effects of chemical pollution on populations need to be seen in context of the many other impacts on marine ecosystems such as fishing or shipping. Together, these combined impacts can lead to systemic disruption of entire ecosystems. Many of the elements in this framework are interdependent. For example, climate change affects, and is affected by, biodiversity and ocean acidification. In turn, this impacts upon the productivity of the North Sea as well as associated livelihoods, nutrition and socio-economic stability. The costs of such consequences are often not paid for directly by organisations, but as human activity leads to the decline of North Sea ecosystems, this will in turn undermine the economic value that can be derived from those ecosystems in the future. Implications: • should take into account direct and indirect impacts of economic activity on natural and human systems; and vice versa; • should understand and take into account the combined actual and potential impacts of multiple economic activities on natural and human systems; • should value and report the true costs and impacts of resources used, i.e. paying for biodiversity loss. www.forumforthefuture.org Equity Enable fair and equal access to resources and opportunities. Social Foundations Equity What is equity? To be equitable is to be fair and reasonable, and to allow access to the resources and opportunities of the North Sea region in this way. Why is this critical? Treating people with fairness, as equals, gives them the opportunity to make the most of their lives, regardless of their background or position in life. Many industries and local communities depend on adequate access to the North Sea and its resources. As land-based solutions to meet many human needs appear exhausted, people are increasingly looking towards the sea. At the same time, space in the North Sea is becoming increasingly scarce. Industry requires access to the region to operate, whilst local communities may depend on the local area for livelihoods. Local people and tourists use the coastal zones in the North Sea for recreation and leisure.2 Many of the North Sea’s resources are common pool resources, where one person or industry’s use means less is available for others. Careful marine spatial planning is needed: unfair or restricted access to resources damages local communities and can ultimately lead to political and social instability. Although countries in the North Sea region have legislation in place to protect individuals from discrimination, there are inequalities between the regions, in terms of social integration and access to the labour market. The highly developed urban network in the south of the region is not fully integrated with the rural and sparsely populated areas found in the north.3 This inequality can be detrimental for society as a whole, and for the economy. Implications: • must seek to enable fair and equal access for everyone to resources and opportunities; • should take responsibility for using and managing resources fairly, both for this and for future generations; • should direct focused action towards those who need it most. www.forumforthefuture.org Human Rights Societies must have broad-based respect for human rights; people should have freedom to exercise choice and participate in decision-making that affects their lives. Social Foundations Human Rights What is it? Human rights are rights inherent to all human beings, regardless of nationality, place of residence, gender, ethnic origin, colour, religion, language or any other status. We are all equally entitled to our human rights without discrimination. Why is this critical? The recognition that all people are equal and are entitled to basic human rights is essential for quality of human life. The UN declaration of Human Rights, set out in 1948, declares that everyone is entitled to live within a society that realises these basic human rights. This lays the foundation for enabling participation from all, regardless of background, gender or religion in political, social and economic activity. It also requires us to respect the rights of future generations and their need for access to resources. Globalisation presents new and complex challenges for human rights. Companies have significant power and influence over people, especially those that operate across countries. Some rights are covered by international agreements, such as the ILO’s (International Labour Organisation) Maritime Labour Convention which sets the minimum standards to ensure satisfactory conditions of employment for the world’s seafarers.10 The majority of international trade into the EU travels by ship through North Sea ports.11 Business can be scrutinised more easily in this connected world and can be at risk not only from costly litigation, but from their reputation – which can severely damage a business. North Sea companies can be prosecuted for withholding information about risks to employees who are injured through their work. Equally, sound business practice and ethical practices can open up new markets. Implications: • must not violate human rights, and at a minimum adhere to legal standards; • should promote and respect human rights across all operations; • should consider the impact of all operations on the rights of future generations; • could raise standards to ensure that no individual or group’s rights are marginalised. www.forumforthefuture.org Evidence Evidence should be valued by society and form a core foundation of sound decision-making. Social Foundations Evidence What is evidence? Evidence is something which provides grounds for belief or disbelief. Why is this critical? Having a solid, reliable foundation of evidence that helps us understand the world is vital to making the right decisions and successful policy for the long term. This constitutes careful examination of the evidence base, particularly in controversial areas, and includes scientific evidence as well as experiential evidence. Measuring the right factors is vital because it helps us understand how something works and so how to improve it. There are many aspects of North Sea ecosystems that are unknown or little understood. To protect a species and its habitat, it’s key to understand the environment, and how human use impacts it - for example, how noise from underwater operations is contributing to declining populations of harbour porpoises in Dogger Bank.18 Public understanding of the evidence base for environmental concerns such as climate change or marine ecosystem degradation is crucial to give governments a mandate for action and policy making, for example in the setting of fishing quotas. Examples of data-drive policy include the OSPAR system of Ecological Quality Objectives. OSPAR has been developing the EcoQO system for the North Sea, in collaboration with the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). EcoQOs express the desired qualities of a component of the ecosystem, and function both as indicators for monitoring and objectives against which to measure progress.19 Implications: • must be open and transparent about any evidence used and value social, environmental and economic factors; • must take into account any relevant evidence in decision-making; • should report impact of activities on society and environment through transparent and systematic measurement and evaluation. www.forumforthefuture.org Empathy Empathy and understanding should be shown between people, communities and cultures globally. Social Foundations Empathy What is it? Empathy is our ability to experience and respond to how someone else is feeling, and comprehend the way they look at themselves and the world. Why is this critical? It is important for people to see themselves as connected to each other and to look beyond national, cultural, biological or religious differences. Historian Theodore Zeldin concluded “learning to empathise with people different from ourselves is one of the most effective means of establishing equality that modern society possesses.”12 Developing activities with empathy for the needs and concerns of others can lead to a more efficient and productive North Sea – for example, dredging away from crustacean fisheries or minimising noise pollution from machinery. Empathy can help to avoid or mitigate environmental or social collapses, and strengthen markets and economies for the future. Increasingly it is seen as an essential characteristic of a sustainable society and a key skill for leadership. Education and awareness-raising can promote empathy by making people aware of the effects of their activities on others, both humans and other species. Implications: • should encourage empathy and cooperation between businesses, countries and communities; • should plan and design from an empathetic perspective; • could promote flow of information and knowledge between people and communities to enable empathy. • could develop empathy for other species. www.forumforthefuture.org Safety and security People must be safe to live their lives free from the threat of harm or disruption. Social Foundations Safety and security What is safety and security? This includes personal safety; protection from natural and manmade disasters, and the protection of property and livelihoods. Why is this critical? To be free from the risk of injury, danger or loss is an essential human need. People need an adequate degree of safety in order to develop and maintain a sustainable society. Increased use of the North Sea creates greater safety risks. The North Sea is one of the busiest sea areas in the world, crossed by significant amounts of traffic along with strong levels of development to exploit its natural resources. The risk of accidents and collisions threatening the safety of workers, and subsequent environmental and economic damage, is high. For example, research indicates that navigable space allocated to wind farms could increase by up to 5,240% within just a few years. This would constitute about 5.5% of all navigable space in the region, with a further 860km² (0.1%) taken up by exclusion zones around oil and gas platforms. The precise location of many proposed wind farm sites means that they could have a significant impact on key shipping lanes in the North Sea Region, increasing the likelihood of safety conflicts.4 Protecting people’s property and where they live are increasingly significant issues as the North Sea Region is affected by the effects of climate change, This will include increase in sea levels, and increased incidence of storms and severe weather events. The effect of these events on the North Sea Region is likely to be an increased risk of coastal and watershed flooding5 - the flooding of rivers and water surplus in the regional water systems have recently led to serious damage in several areas of the North Sea Region6. This is likely to have adverse social and economic consequences in the affected areas, as well as profound environmental effects Issues around coastal defences. Implications: • must take adequate measures to protect workers and other users of the North Sea from health and safety risks; • should take proactive steps to mitigate the impacts of climate change; • should take into account the risks that activities may pose to other users of the North Sea. www.forumforthefuture.org Accountable governance Everyone must have access to accountable, transparent and participatory governance systems. Social Foundations Accountable governance What is it? Accountable governance refers to systems, checks and balances that require individuals and organisations to account for, explain or justify their actions, both voluntary and legal. The high seas fall under international law, which governs certain activities (shipping regulations, for example, follow IMO regulations). OSPAR is the mechanism by which fifteen Governments of the western coasts and catchments of Europe, together with the European Community, cooperate to protect the marine environment of the North-East Atlantic.7 The North Sea is part of the OSPAR area; it is also covered by a number of agreements aimed at safeguarding the marine environments. Why is this critical? The North Sea’s territory is located between Norway and Denmark in the east, Scotland and England in the west, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and France in the south. Member states make use of the North Sea’s assets, which requires immense coordination between them to avoid conflict and corruption. As demand for access to the North Sea’s resources rise, so too does the need for accountable governance. While countries in the North Sea region have systems of monitoring and regulating environmental issues, there are still challenges to be met. These include managing and protecting water supply, biodiversity, and other resources which are under threat.8 Integrating the range of activities within all accountable governance systems, including national, EU and international, can be challenging – for example, engaging or representing the interests of fishermen to sailors as well as ecosystem needs. Implications: • must be transparent and accountable; • should / could seek to raise standards on visibility and transparency. www.forumforthefuture.org Trust Levels of trust must be high within society, for people and institutions Social Foundations Trust What is trust? The belief that others will not knowingly act in a way that is detrimental to our interests or, better still, will act in a way that benefits our interest. Why is this critical? It is argued that trust is the key to efficient markets and economic growth: it enables people to interact with confidence, making it easier to do business with each other, and therefore underpins a successful economy. Some economists believe that levels of trust can explain difference in per capita income of nations. Trust is essential to building enduring connections within communities – with employees, suppliers, customers, and within local communities. It supports risk taking that can lead to innovation. Lack of trust between different stakeholders, such as between the scientific and fishing communities in the North Sea, limits co-operation and can stifle productivity. With pressures on the North Sea and its resources growing, multistakeholder processes are increasingly necessary to understand and minimise combined impacts, and involving all stakeholders in the dialogue will be key. Implications: • should not undermine levels of trust in society or the basis for trust, such as social networks; • should build trust, for example through actively engaging stakeholders and ensuring transparency. www.forumforthefuture.org Resilience Society must build resilience of natural and human systems to cope with shocks and stresses. Social Foundations Resilience What is it? Resilience is the ability to absorb disturbances, evolve to cope with dynamic change and adapt and learn from the experience. Why is this critical? All our systems are vulnerable to shocks and stresses, which are becoming more likely as the impacts of climate change become more apparent and as pressures on the North Sea increase. Systems with low resilience – whether a natural marine habitat, a city, rural community or a product supply chain – can only cope with small shocks and stresses. The North Sea is home to a range of resources that are depended upon by communities and industry across the region and beyond. Increasing exploitation of these resources is putting pressure on the marine ecosystems and reducing diversity which supports resilience. Overfishing of a particular species could lower the resilience of the food web, leaving it vulnerable to shocks and threatening the stability of one of the world’s most important fishing grounds. An ecosystem-based approach to the management of human activities helps ensure that the collective pressure of different activities is kept within levels compatible with the achievement of good environmental status. It means the capacity of marine ecosystems to respond to human-induced changes is not compromised, while enabling the sustainable use of marine goods and services by present and future generations.9 Implications: • must design and act for recovery and flexibility and not just for growth and efficiency, e.g. through building solutions that are adaptable, and a diverse and secure supply chain; • should be able to respond effectively, build ongoing processes for learning, recovery and flexibility into strategy; • must not damage the resilience of North Sea ecosystems. www.forumforthefuture.org Information There must be open access to information. Social Foundations Information What is it? Information is knowledge that can be acquired and shared. Why is this critical? Access to information increases understanding and guides behaviour and decision making. The sharing of information enables greater understanding of complex living systems and how they are affected by human and other natural systems. The ongoing digital revolution will drive increased access to information. Information technology (IT) enables individuals and the media to contribute more to transparent, accountable politics by opening public debates and exposing corruption and abuse. The rise of social media platforms such as blogs and social networking have led to more individuals being involved in calling key institutions to account across the world. Open and transparent sharing of information enables active involvement of the public and other stakeholders in the establishment, implementing and updating of strategies affecting the North Sea environment. For example, the Fisheries Science Partnership has facilitated information sharing between sectors, leading to improved fisheries data, better stock assessments and innovative ideas that benefit both the science and fishing communities17. In addition to data sharing, long term monitoring is needed to stay within ecosystem boundaries. Implications: • must support affordable and open flow of information and knowledge between people, business and communities; • should enable others to provide universal access to information; • could develop platforms for open, transparent sharing of information and monitoring. www.forumforthefuture.org Skills Build skills and capacities for individuals to participate in the economy and society. Social Foundations Skills What is it? A skill is a learned capacity to carry out a task for predetermined results. Why is this critical? People’s skills are vital to their ability to work and participate in the economy. Without basic skills, it is difficult, if not impossible, for people to engage with many of the social foundations that make up a sustainable economy. For example, access to information requires literacy and numeracy, and increasingly, IT skills. Resilient communities depend on people having good interpersonal skills, including the ability to deal with change, resolve differences with others and co-operate. Good skills are vital for an organisation’s success, particularly management, leadership and technical skills. Investing in building individual skills attracts workforce, improves productivity and morale and staff retention, as well as attracting investors. Regions around the North Sea are facing considerable economic challenges. Significant areas have a dependency on agriculture and fishery with shrinking labour markets, or on declining traditional industrial sectors. Formerly strong areas, such as oil extraction, are on the wane, whilst new industries such as renewable energy are on the rise.13 New and evolving industries require people to develop, or bring, new skills. Implications: • must enable people to gain the basic skills for participating in society and the economy – these will often be delivered through education and experience; • should invest and build wide-ranging skills and capacity of individuals to realise their potential; • should invest in the development of skills for new industries aligned to a sustainable economy; • should build the skill of how to learn. www.forumforthefuture.org Communication Users of the North Sea region should engage in constructive two-way communication with stakeholders. Social Foundations Interdependence What is communication? Communication is the sharing of ideas, information and feelings. Why is this critical? Communication is essential for building understanding and co-operation. It involves inviting, listening and responding to others as well as delivering messages, through speaking, writing or other mediums. Effective communication is one of the key components of building and maintaining relationships between individuals, groups, communities and institutions. Communication programmes can help raise awareness of issues such as the effects of climate change on the North Sea environments, and ways of mitigating and adapting to it. For example, educating the public and other stakeholders on the issues surrounding flooding and flood defences builds understanding of the issues, promotes participation and engagement in taking appropriate actions.20 Good two-way communication is an essential aspect of multi-stakeholder and collaborative processes, in which creating shared understanding of the needs of other stakeholders is key. Implications: • must communicate impacts of activity to stakeholders; • should engage in two-way communication with relevant stakeholders. www.forumforthefuture.org ENDNOTES 1 OSPAR Commission (2000) 2 OSPAR Commission (2000) Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme (2014) North Sea Region Programme 2007 – 2013 3 Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme (2014) North Sea Region Programme 2007 – 2013 4 Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme (2011) and also Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme (2014) North Sea Region Programme 2007 – 2013 5 6 Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme (2011) 7 Ecorys (2012). Interreg North Sea Region Programme (2014) North Sea Region Programme 2014 – 2020 8 9 EU (2008) 10 ITF Seafarers (n.d.) Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme (2014) North Sea Region Programme 2007 – 2013 11 12 Zeldin, T. (1995) and also Zeldin, T. (1999) Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme (2014) North Sea Region Programme 2007 – 2013 13 Interreg North Sea Region Programme (2014) North Sea Region Programme 2014 – 2020 14 15 Sustainable Shipping Initiative (SSI) (n.d.) Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme (2014) North Sea Region Programme 2007 – 2013 16 17 National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations (NFFO) (n.d.) 18 Marine Conservation Research International (MCR) (2012) 19 OSPAR Commission (2010) Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme (2011) and also Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme (2014) North Sea Region Programme 2007 – 2013 20 www.forumforthefuture.org LIST OF REFERENCE SOURCES Environmental Boundaries – source list Verhofstede, B., Ingle, R. and De Sutter, R. (2011) Comparison of climate change effects across North Sea countries, Climate Proof Areas Work Package 1 Report, February 2011, Ghent University Centre for Mobility and Physical Planning, Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme Sherman, K. and Hempel, G. (2009) The UNEP Large Marine Ecosystem Report: A perspective on changing conditions in LMEs of the world’s Regional Seas, UNEP Regional Seas Report and Studies no. 182, Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme. Ponsar, S., Ozer, J. and Van den Eynde, D. (2008) Impacts of climate change on the ecological parameters of the North Sea (literature study). CLIMAR Project Work Package 1 Report, Contract SD/NS/01A, Brussels: Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models, 37 pp. (Annex 1-02). Van Den Akker, J. (2011) The North Sea ecosystem, Background report Phase 1, Living North Sea Initiative, LNS128_DEF March 2011, Amsterdam: IMSA Amsterdam University of Aberdeen News, (2014) Shrinking fish: Decline in North Sea fish length linked to rising sea temperatures, [Online], Available: http://www.abdn. ac.uk/news/5731/ [28 January 2014]. IOC/UNESCO, IMO, FAO, UNDP, (2011) A Blueprint for Ocean and Coastal Sustainability, Paris: IOC/UNESCO. Bawden, T. (2013) Climate change threat to North Sea oil and gas output from increasingly intense storms caused by global warming, The Independent (10 June 2013), [Online], Available: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/ climate-change/climate-change-threat-to-north-sea-oil-and-gas-output-fromincreasingly-intense-storms-caused-by-global-warming-8652817.html KNMI, (2014) KNMI’14 climate scenarios for the Netherlands; A guide for professionals in climate adaptation, De Bilt: KNMI, 34 pp www.forumforthefuture.org OSPAR Commission, (n.d.) Region II – Greater North Sea, [Online], Available: http://www.ospar.org/content/content. asp?menu=00470212000000_000000_000000 Ecorys, (2012) Blue Growth: Scenarios and drivers for Sustainable Growth from the Oceans, Seas and Coasts, Third Interim Report (13 March 2012), Rotterdam/ Brussels: Ecorys RSPB (n.d.) Coast in Crisis, [Online], Available: http://www.rspb.org.uk/ Images/CRISIS72_tcm9-133013.pdf European Environment Agency, (2011) Europe’s coasts: reconciling development and conservation, [Online] Available: http://www.eea.europa.eu/ highlights/europe2019s-coasts-reconciling-development-and-conservation [13 April 2011] Paramor, O.A.L., Allen, K.A., Aanesen, M., Armstrong, C., Hegland, T., Le Quesne, W., Piet, G.J., Raakær, J., Rogers, S., van Hal, R., van Hoof, L.J.W., van Overzee, H.M.J., and Frid C.L.J. (2009) MEFEPO North Sea Atlas, University of Liverpool, ISBN0 906370 60 4. Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI) and Northern Ireland Environment Agency (NIEA), (2011), ‘Seabed Integrity’, in Northern Ireland State of the Seas Report, AFBI and NIEA, ISBN 978-1-907053-20-7 Cooper, K. M., Eggleton, J. D., Vie, S. J., Vanstone, K., Smith, R., Boyd, S. E., Ware, S., et al. (2005) Assessment of the rehabilitation of the seabed following marine aggregate dredging: Part II, CEFAS Science Series Technical Report 130. 86 pp Ærtebjerg, G., Nygaard, K., Casartelli, S., et al. (2001) Eutrophication in Europe’s coastal waters, Topic Report 7/2001, Copenhagen: European Environment Agency. OSPAR Commission, (2010) Quality Status Report 2010, [Online], Available: http://qsr2010.ospar.org/en/index.html CBS, PBL, Wageningen University, (2003) Eutrophying substances: inflow to the North Sea, 1980-2001, 0193 indicator, Version 04, October 3, 2003, Wageningen University. Noone, K., Sumaila R. and Diaz R.J. (2012) ‘Extended Summary Report’, Valuing the Ocean, Stockholm: Stockholm Environment Institute www.forumforthefuture.org Beijer, C. (2013) Sulphur from shipping causes just as much ocean acidification as increasing carbon emissions, Sustainability (December 2013), [Online], Available: http://sustainability.formas.se/en/Issues/Issue-4December-2013/Content/Articles/Sulphur-from-shipping-causes-just-asmuch-ocean-acidification-as-increasing-carbon-emissions/ Lophelia (n.d.) Ocean acidification, [Online], Available: http://www.lophelia.org/ conservation/threats/climate-change/conservation-oa IGBP, IOC, SCOR, (2013) Ocean Acidification Summary for Policymakers – Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Stockholm, Sweden. BBC, (2014) North Sea oil: Facts and figures, BBC News (24 February 2014), [Online], Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotlandpolitics-26326117 Thurstan, R. H., Brockington, S., Roberts, C. M. (2010) The effects of 118 years of industrial fishing on British bottom trawl fisheries, Nature Communications 1 (15), Available: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/ v1/n2/full/ncomms1013.html [4 May 2010] European Commission (n.d.) The Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), [Online], Available: http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp/index_en.htm United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), (n.d.) Shipping and Seabased Pollution, [Online], Available: http://www.unep.org/regionalseas/Issues/ seaactivities/default.asp World Wildlife Fund (WWF), (n.d.) Threats: Pollution – Overview, [Online], Available: http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/pollution Thomsen, F. (2009) Assessment of the environmental impact of underwater noise, Biodiversity Series, London: OSPAR Commission. OSPAR Commission (2000) ‘The North Sea Environment’, Quality Status Report 2000, [Online], Available: http://www.ospar.org/html_documents/ ospar/html/nsc_kap_2_17-30.pdf International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), (2007) Species Extinction – The Facts, [Online], Available: http://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/ species_extinction_05_2007.pdf www.forumforthefuture.org Human needs – source list Paramor, O.A.L., Allen, K.A., Aanesen, M., Armstrong, C., Hegland, T., Le Quesne, W., Piet, G.J., Raakær, J., Rogers, S., van Hal, R., van Hoof, L.J.W., van Overzee, H.M.J., and Frid C.L.J. (2009) MEFEPO North Sea Atlas, University of Liverpool, ISBN0 906370 60 4. Scottish Government, (2014) Energy in Scotland – Get the facts, [Online], Available: http://www.gov.scot/topics/business-industry/energy/facts Van Den Akker, J. (2011) The North Sea ecosystem, Background report Phase 1, Living North Sea Initiative, LNS128_DEF March 2011, Amsterdam: IMSA Amsterdam. 4C Offshore (2015) Offshore Wind and Tidal Projects, [Online], Available: http://www.4coffshore.com/ Ecorys, (2012) Blue Growth: Scenarios and drivers for Sustainable Growth from the Oceans, Seas and Coasts, Final Report (13 August 2012), Rotterdam/ Brussels: Ecorys. Havenmonitor, (2014) The Economic significance of the Dutch Seaports, Report for Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Dec 2014, Rotterdam: Erasmus University Rotterdam (RHV). Interreg IVB North Sea Region Programme, (2014) Operational Programme, North Sea Region Programme 2007 – 2013 (Final Version), Jernbanegade, Denmark: The North Sea Region Programme. 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