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Chapter 11 American Options In contrast with European option which have fixed maturities, the holder of an American option is allowed to exercise at any given (random) time. This transforms the valuation problem into an optimization problem in which one has to find the optimal time to exercise in order to maximize the payoff of the option. As will be seen in the first section below, not all random times can be considered in this process, and we restrict ourselves to stopping times whose value at time t be can decided based on the historical data available. 11.1 Filtrations and Information Flow Let (Ft )t∈R+ denote the filtration generated by a stochastic process (Xt )t∈R+ . In other words, Ft denotes the collection of all events possibly generated by {Xs : 0 6 s 6 t} up to time t. Examples of such events include the event {Xt0 6 a0 , Xt1 6 a1 , . . . , Xtn 6 an } for a0 , a1 , . . . , an a given fixed sequence of real numbers and 0 6 t1 < · · · < tn < t, and Ft is said to represent the information generated by (Xs )s∈[0,t] up to time t. By construction, (Ft )t∈R+ is an increasing family of σ-algebras in the sense that we have Fs ⊂ Ft (information known at time s is contained in the information known at time t) when 0 < s < t. One refers sometimes to (Ft )t∈R+ as the increasing flow of information generated by (Xt )t∈R+ . 331 N. Privault 11.2 Martingales, Submartingales, and Supermartingales Let us recall the definition of martingale (cf. Definition 5.5) and introduce in addition the definitions of supermartingale and submartingale.∗ Definition 11.1. An integrable stochastic process (Zt )t∈R+ is a martingale (resp. a supermartingale, resp. a submartingale) with respect to (Ft )t∈R+ if it satisfies the property Zs = IE[Zt | Fs ], 0 6 s 6 t, Zs > IE[Zt | Fs ], 0 6 s 6 t, Zs 6 IE[Zt | Fs ], 0 6 s 6 t. resp. resp. Clearly, a process (Zt )t∈R+ is a martingale if and only if it is both a supermartingale and a submartingale. A particular property of martingales is that their expectation is constant. Proposition 11.2. Let (Zt )t∈R+ be a martingale. We have IE[Zt ] = IE[Zs ], 0 6 s 6 t. The above proposition follows from the “tower property” (17.37) of conditional expectations, which shows that IE[Zt ] = IE[IE[Zt | Fs ]] = IE[Zs ], 0 6 s 6 t. (11.1) Similarly, a supermartingale has a decreasing expectation, while a submartingale has a increasing expectation. Proposition 11.3. Let (Zt )t∈R+ be a supermartingale, resp. a submartingale. Then we have IE[Zt ] 6 IE[Zs ], 0 6 s 6 t, resp. IE[Zt ] > IE[Zs ], 0 6 s 6 t. Proof. As in (11.1) above we have IE[Zt ] = IE[IE[Zt | Fs ]] 6 IE[Zs ], The proof is similar in the submartingale case. 0 6 s 6 t. “This obviously inappropriate nomenclature was chosen under the malign influence of the noise level of radio’s SUPERman program, a favorite supper-time program of Doob’s son during the writing of [Doo53]”, cf. [Doo84], historical notes, page 808. ∗ 332 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options Independent increments processes whose increments have negative expectation give examples of supermartingales. For example, if (Xt )t∈R+ is such a process then we have IE[Xt | Fs ] = IE[Xs | Fs ] + IE [Xt − Xs | Fs ] = IE[Xs | Fs ] + IE[Xt − Xs ] 6 IE[Xs | Fs ] = Xs , 0 6 s 6 t. Similarly, a process with independent increments which have positive expectation will be a submartingale. Brownian motion Bt + µt with positive drift µ > 0 is such an example, as in Figure 11.1 below. 5 drifted Brownian motion drift 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Fig. 11.1: Drifted Brownian path. The following example comes from gambling. Fig. 11.2: Evolution of the fortune of a poker player vs number of games played. A natural way to construct submartingales is to take convex functions of martingales. " 333 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Proposition 11.4. Given (Mt )t∈R+ a martingale and φ : R −→ R a convex function we have φ(Ms ) 6 IE[φ(Mt ) | Fs ], 0 6 s 6 t, i.e. (φ(Mt ))t∈R+ is a submartingale. Proof. By Jensen’s inequality we have φ(IE[Mt | Fs ]) 6 IE[φ(Mt ) | Fs ], 0 6 s 6 t, (11.2) which shows that φ(Ms ) = φ(IE[Mt | Fs ]) 6 IE[φ(Mt ) | Fs ], 0 6 s 6 t. More generally, the proof of Proposition 11.4 shows that φ(Mt )t∈R+ remains a submartingale when φ is convex nondecreasing and (Mt )∈R+ is a submartingale. Similarly, (φ(Mt ))t∈R+ will be a supermartingale when (Mt )∈R+ is a martingale and the function φ is concave. Other examples of (super, sub)-martingales include geometric Brownian motion 2 St = S0 e rt+σBt −σ t/2 , t ∈ R+ , which is a martingale for r = 0, a supermartingale for r 6 0, and a submartingale for r > 0. 11.3 Stopping Times Next, we turn to the definition of stopping time. Definition 11.5. A stopping time is a random variable τ : Ω −→ R+ ∪{+∞} such that {τ > t} ∈ Ft , t ∈ R+ . (11.3) The meaning of Relation (11.3) is that the knowledge of the event {τ > t} depends only on the information present in Ft up to time t, i.e. on the knowledge of (Xs )06s6t . In other words, an event occurs at a stopping time τ if at any time t it can be decided whether the event has already occured (τ 6 t) or not (τ > t) based on the information Ft generated by (Xs )s∈R+ up to time t. For example, the day you bought your first car is a stopping time (one can always answer the question “did I ever buy a car”), whereas the day you 334 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options will buy your last car may not be a stopping time (one may not be able to answer the question “will I ever buy another car”). Proposition 11.6. Let τ and θ be stopping times. i) Every constant time is a stopping time. ii) The minimum τ ∧ θ = min(τ, θ) of τ and θ is also a stopping time. iii) The maximum τ ∨ θ = max(τ, θ) of τ and θ is also a stopping time. Proof. Point 1. is easily checked. We have {τ ∧ θ > t} = {τ > t and θ > t} = {τ > t} ∩ {θ > t} ∈ Ft , t ∈ R+ . On the other hand, we have {τ ∨ θ > t} = {τ > t and θ > t} = {τ > t} ∩ {θ > t} ∈ Ft , t ∈ R+ , which implies {τ ∨ θ < t} = {τ ∨ θ > t}c ∈ Ft , t ∈ R+ . Hitting times provide natural examples of stopping times. The hitting time of level x by the process (Xt )t∈R+ , defined as τx = inf{t ∈ R+ : Xt = x}, is a stopping time, as we have (here in discrete time) ∗ {τx > t} = {Xs 6= x for all s ∈ [0, t]} = {X0 6= x} ∩ {X1 6= x} ∩ · · · ∩ {Xt 6= x} ∈ Ft , t ∈ N. In gambling, a hitting time can be used as an exit strategy from the game. For example, letting τx,y := inf{t ∈ R+ : Xt = x or Xt = y} (11.4) defines a hitting time (hence a stopping time) which allows a gambler to exit the game as soon as losses become equal to x = −10, or gains become equal to y = +100, whichever comes first. However, not every R+ -valued random variable is a stopping time. For example the random time ( ) τ = inf t ∈ [0, T ] : Xt = sup Xs , s∈[0,T ] ∗ As a convention we let τ = +∞ in case there exists no t ∈ R+ such that Xt = x. " 335 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault which represents the first time the process (Xt )t∈[0,T ] reaches its maximum over [0, T ], is not a stopping time with respect to the filtration generated by (Xt )t∈[0,T ] . Indeed, the information known at time t ∈ (0, T ) is not sufficient to determine whether {τ > t}. Given (Zt )t∈R+ a stochastic process and τ : Ω −→ R+ ∪ {+∞} a stopping time, the stopped process (Zt∧τ )t∈R+ is defined as Zt if t < τ, Zt∧τ = Zτ if t > τ, Using indicator functions we may also write Zt∧τ = Zt 1{t<τ } + Zτ 1{t>τ } , t ∈ R+ . The following Figure 11.3 is an illustration of the path of a stopped process. 0.065 0.06 0.055 0.05 0.045 0.04 0.035 0.03 0.025 0 2 4 6 τ 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 t Fig. 11.3: Stopped process. Theorem 11.7 below is called the stopping time (or optional sampling, or optional stopping) theorem, it is due to the mathematician J.L. Doob (19102004). It is also used in Exercise 11.4 below. Theorem 11.7. Assume that (Mt )t∈R+ is a martingale with respect to (Ft )t∈R+ . Then the stopped process (Mt∧τ )t∈R+ is also a martingale with respect to (Ft )t∈R+ . Proof. We only give the proof in discrete time by applying the martingale transform argument of Proposition 2.6. Writing the telescoping sum Mn = M0 + n ∞ X X (Ml − Ml−1 ) = M0 + 1{l6n} (Ml − Ml−1 ), l=1 l=1 we have 336 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options Mτ ∧n = M0 + τX ∧n (Ml − Ml−1 ) = M0 + l=1 ∞ X 1{l6τ ∧n} (Ml − Ml−1 ), l=1 and for k 6 n, IE[Mτ ∧n | Fk ] = M0 + ∞ X IE[1{l6τ ∧n} (Ml − Ml−1 ) | Fk ] l=1 = M0 + k X IE[1{l6τ ∧n} (Ml − Ml−1 ) | Fk ] l=1 + ∞ X IE[1{l6τ ∧n} (Ml − Ml−1 ) | Fk ] l=k+1 = M0 + k X (Ml − Ml−1 ) IE[1{l6τ ∧n} | Fk ] l=1 + ∞ X IE[IE[(Ml − Ml−1 )1{l6τ ∧n} | Fl−1 ] | Fk ] l=k+1 = M0 + k X (Ml − Ml−1 )1{l6τ ∧n} l=1 + ∞ X IE[1{l6τ ∧n} IE[(Ml − Ml−1 ) | Fl−1 ] | Fk ] l=k+1 = M0 + τ ∧n∧k X (Ml − Ml−1 )1{l6τ ∧n} l=1 = M0 + τ ∧k X (Ml − Ml−1 )1{l6τ ∧n} l=1 = Mτ ∧k , k = 0, 1, . . . , n, because the martingale property of (Ml )l∈N implies IE[(Ml − Ml−1 ) | Fl−1 ] = IE[Ml | Fl−1 ] − IE[Ml−1 | Fl−1 ] = IE[Ml | Fl−1 ] − Ml−1 = 0, l > 1. Since the stopped process (Mτ ∧t )t∈R+ is a martingale by Theorem 11.7 we find that its expectation is constant by Proposition 11.2. More generally, if (Mt )t∈R+ is a supermartingale with respect to (Ft )t∈R+ , then the stopped " 337 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault process (Mt∧τ )t∈R+ remains a supermartingale with respect to (Ft )t∈R+ . As a consequence, if τ is a stopping time bounded by T > 0, i.e. τ 6 T almost surely, we have IE[Mτ ] = IE[Mτ ∧T ] = IE[Mτ ∧0 ] = IE[M0 ]. (11.5) In case τ is finite with probability one but not bounded we may also write h i IE[Mτ ] = IE lim Mτ ∧t = lim IE[Mτ ∧t ] = IE[M0 ], (11.6) t→∞ t→∞ provided that |Mτ ∧t | 6 C, a.s., t ∈ R+ . (11.7) More generally, (11.6) will hold provided that the limit and expectation signs can be exchanged, and this can be done using e.g. the Dominated Convergence Theorem. In case P(τ = +∞) > 0, (11.6) will hold under the above conditions, provided that M∞ := lim Mt (11.8) t→∞ exists with probability one. In addition, if τ and ν are two a.s. bounded stopping times such that τ 6 ν, a.s., we have IE[Mτ ] > IE[Mν ] (11.9) if (Mt )t∈R+ is a supermartingale, and IE[Mτ ] 6 IE[Mν ] (11.10) if (Mt )t∈R+ is a submartingale, cf. Exercise 11.4 below for a proof in discrete time. From (11.5)), if τ and ν are two bounded stopping times, we have IE[Mτ ] = IE[Mν ] (11.11) if (Mt )t∈R+ is a martingale. As a counterexample to (11.11), the random time n o τ := inf t ∈ [0, T ] : Mt = sup Ms , s∈[0,T ] which is not a stopping time, will satisfy IE[Mτ ] > IE[MT ], 338 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options although τ 6 T almost surely. Similarly, n o τ := inf t ∈ [0, T ] : Mt = inf Ms , s∈[0,T ] is not a stopping time and satisfies IE[Mτ ] < IE[MT ]. Relations (11.9), (11.10) and (11.11) can be extended to unbounded stopping times along the same lines and conditions as (11.6), such as (11.7) applied to both τ and ν. Dealing with unbounded stopping times can be necessary in the case of hitting times. In general, for all a.s. finite (bounded or unbounded) stopping times τ it remains true that IE[Mτ ] = IE lim Mτ ∧t 6 lim IE Mτ ∧t 6 lim IE[M0 ] = IE[M0 ], (11.12) t→∞ t→∞ t→∞ provided that (Mt )t∈R+ is a nonnegative supermartingale, where we used Fatou’s Lemma 17.1.∗ As in (11.6), the limit (11.8) is required to exist with probability one if P(τ = +∞) > 0. When (Mt )t∈[0,T ] is a martingale, e.g. a centered random walk with independent increments, the message of the stopping time Theorem 11.7 is that the expected gain of the exit strategy τx,y of (11.4) remains zero on average since IE Mτx,y = IE[M0 ] = 0, if M0 = 0. This shows that, on average, this exit strategy does not increase the average gain of the player. More precisely we have 0 = M0 = IE[Mτx,y ] = xP(Mτx,y = x) + yP(Mτx,y = y) = −10 × P(Mτx,y = −10) + 100 × P(Mτx,y = 100), which shows that P(Mτx,y = −10) = 10 11 and P(Mτx,y = 100) = 1 , 11 provided that the relation P(Mτx,y = x) + P(Mτx,y = y) = 1 is satisfied, see below for further applications to Brownian motion. ∗ IE[limn→∞ Fn ] 6 limn→∞ IE[Fn ] for any sequence (Fn )n∈N of nonnegative random variables, provided that the limits exist. " 339 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Similar arguments are applied in the examples below. In the next table we summarize some of the results of this section for bounded stopping times. Mt bounded stopping times τ 6 ν supermartingale IE[Mτ ] > IE[Mν ] if τ 6 ν. martingale submartingale IE[Mτ ] = IE[Mν ]. IE[Mτ ] 6 IE[Mν ] if τ 6 ν. Examples of application In this section we note that, as an application of the stopping time theorem, a number of expectations can be computed in a simple and elegant way. Brownian motion hitting a barrier Given a, b ∈ R, a < b, let the hitting∗ time τa,b : Ω −→ R+ be defined by τa,b = inf{t > 0 : Bt = a or Bt = b}, which is the hitting time of the boundary {a, b} of Brownian motion (Bt )t∈R+ , a, b ∈ R, a < b. Recall that Brownian motion (Bt )t∈R+ is a martingale since it has independent increments, and those increments are centered: IE[Bt − Bs ] = 0, 0 6 s 6 t. Consequently, (Bτa,b ∧t )t∈R+ is still a martingale and by (11.6) we have IE[Bτa,b | B0 = x] = IE[B0 | B0 = x] = x, as the exchange between limit and expectation in (11.6) can be justified since |Bt∧τa,b | 6 max(|a|, |b|), t ∈ R+ . Hence we have x = IE[Bτa,b | B0 = x] = a × P(Bτa,b = a | B0 = x) + b × P(Bτa,b = b | B0 = x), ∗ P Xτa,b = a | X0 = x + P(Xτa,b = b | X0 = x) = 1, A hitting time is a stopping time 340 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options which yields P(Bτa,b = b | B0 = x) = x−a , b−a a 6 x 6 b, b−x , b−a a 6 x 6 b. which also shows that P(Bτa,b = a | B0 = x) = Note that the above result and its proof actually apply to any continuous martingale, and not only to Brownian motion. Drifted Brownian motion hitting a barrier Next, let us turn to the case of drifted Brownian motion Xt = x + Bt + µt, t ∈ R+ . In this case the process (Xt )t∈R+ is no longer a martingale and in order to use Theorem 11.7 we need to construct a martingale of a different type. Here we note that the process Mt := e σBt −σ 2 t/2 , t ∈ R+ , is a martingale with respect to (Ft )t∈R+ . Indeed, we have i h 2 2 IE[Mt | Fs ] = IE e σBt −σ t/2 Fs = e σBs −σ s/2 , 0 6 s 6 t, cf. e.g. Example 3 page 174. By Theorem 11.7 we know that the stopped process (Mτa,b ∧t )t∈R+ is a martingale, hence its expectation is constant by Proposition 11.2, and (11.6) gives 1 = IE[M0 ] = IE[Mτa,b ], as the exchange between limit and expectation in (11.6) can be justified since |Mt∧τa,b | 6 max( e σ|a| , e σ|b| ), t ∈ R+ . Next, we note that letting σ = −2µ we have e σXt = e σx+σBt +σµt = e σx+σBt −σ 2 t/2 = e σx Mt , or Mt = e −σx e σXt , hence 1 = IE[Mτa,b ] = e −σx IE[ e σXτa,b ] " 341 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault = e σ(a−x) P Xτa,b = a | X0 = x + e σ(b−x) P(Xτa,b = b | X0 = x), under the additional condition P Xτa,b = a | X0 = x + P(Xτa,b = b | X0 = x) = 1. Finally this gives e σx − e σb e −2µx − e −2µb P(Xτa,b = a | X0 = x) = σa = −2µa σb e − e e − e −2µb P(X τa,b = b | X0 = x) = e −2µa − e −2µx , e −2µa − e −2µb (11.13a) (11.13b) a 6 x 6 b. Letting b tend to infinity in the above equalities shows that the probability P(τa = +∞) of escape to infinity of Brownian motion started from x ∈ [a, ∞) is equal to 1 − P(Xτa,∞ = a | X0 = x) = 1 − e −2µ(x−a) , µ > 0, P(τa = +∞) = 0, µ 6 0. (11.14) Similarly for x ∈ (−∞, b], letting a tend to infinity we have 1 − P(Xτ−∞,b = b | X0 = x) = 1 − e −2µ(x−b) , P(τb = +∞) = 0, µ > 0. µ < 0, (11.15) Mean hitting time for Brownian motion The martingale method also allows us to compute the expectation IE[Bτa,b ], after checking that (Bt2 − t)t∈R+ is also a martingale. Indeed we have IE[Bt2 − t | Fs ] = IE[(Bs + (Bt − Bs ))2 − t | Fs ] = IE[Bs2 + (Bt − Bs )2 + 2Bs (Bt − Bs ) − t | Fs ] = IE[Bs2 − s | Fs ] − (t − s) + IE[(Bt − Bs )2 | Fs ] + 2 IE[Bs (Bt − Bs ) | Fs ] = Bs2 − s − (t − s) + IE[(Bt − Bs )2 | Fs ] + 2Bs IE[Bt − Bs | Fs ] = Bs2 − s − (t − s) + IE[(Bt − Bs )2 ] + 2Bs IE[Bt − Bs ] = Bs2 − s, 0 6 s 6 t. Consequently the stopped process (Bτ2a,b ∧t − τa,b ∧ t)t∈R+ is still a martingale by Theorem 11.7 hence the expectation IE[Bτ2a,b ∧t − τa,b ∧ t] is constant in 342 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options t ∈ R+ , hence by (11.6) we get∗ x2 = IE[B02 − 0 | B0 = x] = IE[Bτ2a,b − τa,b | B0 = x] = IE[Bτ2a,b | B0 = x] − IE[τa,b | B0 = x] = b2 P(Bτa,b = b | B0 = x) + a2 P(Bτa,b = a | B0 = x) − IE[τa,b | B0 = x], i.e. IE[τa,b | B0 = x] = b2 P(Bτa,b = b | B0 = x) + a2 P(Bτa,b = a | B0 = x) − x2 b−x x−a + a2 − x2 = b2 b−a b−a = (x − a)(b − x), a 6 x 6 b. Mean hitting time for drifted Brownian motion Finally we show how to recover the value of the mean hitting time IE[τa,b | X0 = x] of drifted Brownian motion Xt = x + Bt + µt. As above, the process Xt − µt is a martingale the stopped process (Xτa,b ∧t − µ(τa,b ∧ t))t∈R+ is still a martingale by Theorem 11.7. Hence the expectation IE[Xτa,b ∧t − µ(τa,b ∧ t)] is constant in t ∈ R+ . Since the stopped process (Xτa,b ∧t − µt)t∈R+ is a martingale, we have x = IE[Xτa,b − µτa,b | X0 = x], which gives x = IE[Xτa,b − µτa,b | X0 = x] = IE[Xτa,b | X0 = x] − µ IE[τa,b | X0 = x] = bP(Xτa,b = b | X0 = x) + aP(Xτa,b = a | X0 = x) − µ IE[τa,b | X0 = x], i.e. by (11.13a), µ IE[τa,b | X0 = x] = bP(Xτa,b = b | X0 = x) + aP(Xτa,b = a | X0 = x) − x e −2µa − e −2µx e −2µx − e −2µb + a −2µa −x −2µa −2µb e −e e − e −2µb −2µa −2µx −2µx −2µb b( e −e ) + a( e −e ) − x( e −2µa − e −2µb ) = , −2µa −2µb e −e =b hence ∗ Here we note that it can be showed that IE[τa,b ] < ∞ in order to apply (11.6). " 343 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault IE[τa,b | X0 = x] = b( e −2µa − e −2µx ) + a( e −2µx − e −2µb ) − x( e −2µa − e −2µb ) , µ( e −2µa − e −2µb ) a 6 x 6 b. 11.4 Perpetual American Options The price of an American put option with finite expiration time T > 0 and strike price K can be expressed as the expected value of its discounted payoff: i h f (t, St ) = sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (K − Sτ )+ St , t6τ 6T τ stopping time under the risk-neutral probability measure P∗ , where the supremum is taken over stopping times between t and a fixed maturity T . Similarly, the price of a finite expiration American call option with strike price K is expressed as i h f (t, St ) = sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ St . t6τ 6T τ stopping time In this section we take T = +∞, in which case we refer to these options as perpetual options, and the corresponding put and call are respectively priced as i h f (t, St ) = sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (K − Sτ )+ St , τ >t τ stopping time and f (t, St ) = sup τ >t τ stopping time i h IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ St . Two-choice optimal stopping at a fixed price level for perpetual put options In this section we consider the pricing of perpetual put options. Given L ∈ (0, K) a fixed price, consider the following choices for the exercise of a put option with strike price K: 1. If St 6 L, then exercise at time t. 2. Otherwise if St > L, wait until the first hitting time τL := inf{u > t : Su 6 L} (11.16) of the level L > 0, and exercise the option at time τL if τL < ∞. Note that by definition of (11.16) we have τL = t if St 6 L. 344 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options In case St 6 L, the payoff will be (K − St )+ = K − St since K > L > St , however in this case one would buy the option at price K − St only to exercise it immediately for the same amount. In case St > L, the price of the option will be i h fL (t, St ) = IE∗ e −r(τL −t) (K − SτL )+ St i h = IE∗ e −r(τL −t) (K − L)+ St i h = (K − L) IE∗ e −r(τL −t) St . (11.17) We note that the starting date t does not matter when pricing perpetual options, hence fL (t, x) is actually independent of t ∈ R+ , and the pricing of the perpetual put option can be performed by taking t = 0 and in the sequel we will work under fL (t, x) = fL (x), x > 0. Recall that the underlying asset price is written as St = S0 e rt+σB̃t −σ 2 t/2 , t ∈ R+ , (11.18) where (B̃t )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion under the risk-neutral probability measure P∗ , r is the risk-free interest rate, and σ > 0 is the volatility coefficient. Proposition 11.8. Assume that r > 0. We have h i fL (x) = IE∗ e −r(τL −t) (K − SτL )+ St = x K − x, 0 < x 6 L, = 2 (K − L) x −2r/σ , x > L. L Proof. We take t = 0 without loss of generality. i) The result is obvious for S0 = x 6 L since in this case we have τL = t and SτL = S0 = x, so that we only focus on the case x > L. ii) Next, we consider the case S0 = x > L. By the relation h h i i IE∗ e −rτL (K − SτL )+ S0 = x = IE∗ 1{τL <∞} e −rτL (K − SτL )+ S0 = x h i = IE∗ 1{τL <∞} e −rτL (K − L)S0 = x " 345 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault i h = (K − L) IE∗ e −rτL S0 = x , (11.19) ∗ we note that it suffices to compute IE e −rτL S0 = x . For this, we note that (λ) from (11.18), for all λ ∈ R the process Zt t∈R+ defined as (λ) Zt := Stλ e −t(rλ−λ(1−λ)σ 2 /2) = S0λ e λσB̃t −λ 2 σ 2 t/2 , t ∈ R+ , is a martingale under the risk-neutral probability measure P∗ . Choosing λ such that σ2 r = rλ − λ(1 − λ) , (11.20) 2 we have (λ) Zt = Stλ e −rt , t ∈ R+ . The equation (11.20) rewrites as 0 = λ2 σ 2 /2 + λ(r − σ 2 /2) − r = with solutions σ2 (λ + 2r/σ 2 )(λ − 1), 2 (11.21) λ+ = 1 and λ− = −2r/σ 2 . Choosing the negative solution∗ λ− = −2r/σ 2 < 0, we have (λ− ) 0 6 Zt λ = St − e −rt 6 Lλ− , 0 6 t < τL , (11.22) (λ ) limt→∞ Zt − since r > 0. Next, we note that = 0, and Lλ− IE∗ e −rτL = IE∗ SτλL− e −rτL 1{τL <∞} h i = IE∗ Zτ(λL− ) 1{τL <∞} h i (λ ) = IE∗ lim ZτL− ∧t t→∞ h i (λ ) = lim IE∗ ZτL− ∧t t→∞ (λ ) = IE∗ Z0 − (11.23) (11.24) λ = S0 − , where by (11.22) we used the dominated convergence theorem from (11.23) to (11.24), hence we find Note that P(τL = ∞) > 0 since (St )t∈R+ is a submartingale, cf. (11.14), and the bound (11.22) does not hold for the positive solution λ+ = 1. ∗ 346 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options x −2r/σ2 , IE∗ e −rτL S0 = x = L x > L, (11.25) and we conclude by (11.19), which shows that IE∗ e −rτL (K − SτL )+ S0 = x = (K − L) IE∗ e −rτL S0 = x x −2r/σ2 , = (K − L) L when S0 = x > L. We note that taking L = K would yield a payoff always equal to 0 for the option holder, hence the value of L should be strictly lower than K. On the other hand, if L = 0 the value of τL will be infinite almost surely, hence the option price will be 0 when r > 0 from (11.17). Therefore there should be an optimal value L∗ , which should be strictly comprised between 0 and K. Figure 11.4 shows for K = 100 that there exists an optimal value L∗ = 85.71 which maximizes the option price for all values of the underlying. 35 L=75 L=L*=85.71 L=98 (K-x)+ 30 Option price 25 20 15 10 5 0 70 80 90 100 110 120 Underlying x Fig. 11.4: Graphs of the option price by exercise at τL for several values of L. In order to compute L∗ we observe that, geometrically, the slope of fL (x) at x = L∗ is equal to −1, i.e. 2 fL0 ∗ (L∗ ) = − i.e. or " 2r (L∗ )−2r/σ −1 (K − L∗ ) = −1, 2 σ (L∗ )−2r/σ2 2r (K − L∗ ) = L∗ , σ2 347 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault L∗ = 2r K < K. 2r + σ 2 The same conclusion can be reached by the vanishing of the derivative of L 7−→ fL (x): x −2r/σ ∂fL (x) 2r K − L x −2r/σ =− + 2 = 0, ∂L L σ L L 2 2 cf. page 351 of [Shr04]. The next Figure 11.5 is a 2-dimensional animation that also shows the optimal value L∗ of L. Fig. 11.5: Animated graph of the option price depending on the values of L.∗ The next Figure 11.6 gives another view of the put option prices according to different values of L, with the optimal value L∗ = 85.71. (K-x)+ fL(x) fL*(x) K-L 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 70 75 80 75 85 70 90 65 Underlying x 95 100 105 110 60 80 85 90 100 95 L Fig. 11.6: Option price as a function of L and of the underlying asset price. ∗ The animation works in Acrobat Reader on the entire pdf file. 348 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options In Figure 11.7, which is based on the stock price of HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) over year 2009, the optimal exercise strategy for an American put option with strike price K=$77.67 would have been to exercise whenever the underlying price goes above L∗ = $62, i.e. at approximately 54 days, for a payoff of $38. Note that waiting a longer time, e.g. until 85 days, would have yielded a higher payoff of at least $65. This is due to the fact that, here, optimization is done based on the past information only and makes sense in expectation (or average) over all possible future paths. Payoff (K-x)+ American put price Option price path L* 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 50 100 150 Time in days 200 100 90 80 70 50 60 underlying HK$ 40 30 Fig. 11.7: Path of the American put option price on the HSBC stock. PDE approach We can check by hand calculations that the function 2r K − x, 0 < x 6 L∗ = K, 2r + σ 2 fL∗ (x) := −2r/σ2 Kσ 2 2r + σ 2 x 2r , x > L∗ = K, 2 2r + σ 2r K 2r + σ 2 (11.26) satisfies the PDE 0 < x 6 L∗ < K, −rK < 0, 1 2 2 00 0 ∗ − rfL (x) + rxfL∗ (x) + σ x fL∗ (x) = 2 0, x > L∗ . (11.27) in addition to the conditions 0 < x 6 L∗ < K, fL∗ (x) = K − x, fL∗ (x) > (K − x)+ , x > L∗ , which can be checked from (11.26). " 349 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault The above statements can be summarized in the following set of differential inequalities, or variational differential equation: (11.28a) fL∗ (x) > (K − x)+ , σ 2 2 00 rxfL0 ∗ (x) + (11.28b) x fL∗ (x) 6 rfL∗ (x), 2 σ 2 2 00 0 ∗ (x) − rxf ∗ (x) − x f (x) (fL∗ (x) − (K − x)+ ) = 0, (11.28c) rf ∗ L L L 2 which admits an interpretation in terms of absence of arbitrage, as shown below. By (11.27) and Itô’s formula the discounted portfolio price f˜L∗ (St ) = e −rt fL∗ (St ) satisfies d(f˜L∗ (St )) 1 = − rfL∗ (St ) + rSt fL0 ∗ (St ) + σ 2 St2 fL00∗ (St ) e −rt dt + e −rt σSt fL0 ∗ (St )dB̃t 2 = −1{St 6L∗ } rK + e −rt σSt fL0 ∗ (St )dB̃t = −1{fL∗ (St )6(K−St )+ } rK + e −rt σSt fL0 ∗ (St )dB̃t . (11.29) In other words, from Equation (11.28c), f˜L∗ (St ) is a martingale when fL∗ (St ) > (K − St )+ , i.e. St > L∗ , and the expected rate of return of the option price fL∗ (St ) then equals the rate r of the risk-free asset as d fL∗ (St ) = d e rt f˜L∗ (St ) = rfL∗ (St )dt + e rt df˜L∗ (St ), and the investor prefers to wait. On the other hand if fL∗ (St ) = (K − St )+ , i.e. 0 < St < L∗ , it is not worth waiting as (11.28b) and (11.28c) show that the return of the option is lower than that of the risk-free asset, i.e.: 1 −rfL∗ (St ) + rSt fL0 ∗ (St ) + σ 2 St2 fL00∗ (St ) = −rK < 0, 2 350 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options and exercise becomes immediate since the process f˜L∗ (St ) becomes a (strict) supermartingale. In this case, (11.28c) implies fL∗ (x) = (K − x)+ . In view of the above derivation it should make sense to assert that fL∗ (St ) is the price at time t of the perpetual American put option. The next proposition shows that this is indeed the case, and that the optimal exercise time is τ ∗ = τL∗ . Proposition 11.9. The price of the perpetual American put option is given for all t > 0 by fL∗ (St ) = sup τ >t τ stopping time i h IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (K − Sτ )+ St i h = IE∗ e −r(τL∗ −t) (K − SτL∗ )+ St K − St , 0 < St 6 L∗ , −2r/σ2 = 2r + σ 2 St Kσ 2 , S t > L∗ . 2r + σ 2 2r K Proof. i) Since the drift 1 −rfL∗ (St ) + rSt fL0 ∗ (St ) + σ 2 St2 fL00∗ (St ) 2 in Itô’s formula (11.29) is nonpositive by the inequality (11.28b), the discounted portfolio price u 7−→ e −ru fL∗ (Su ), u ∈ [t, ∞), is a supermartingale. As a consequence, for all (a.s. finite) stopping times τ ∈ [t, ∞) we have, by (11.12), i i h h e −rt fL∗ (St ) > IE∗ e −rτ fL∗ (Sτ )St > IE∗ e −rτ (K − Sτ )+ St , from (11.28a), which implies e −rt fL∗ (St ) > sup τ >t τ stopping time i h IE∗ e −rτ (K − Sτ )+ St . (11.30) ii) The converse inequality is obvious by Proposition 11.8 as i h fL∗ (St ) = IE∗ e −r(τL∗ −t) (K − SτL∗ )+ St " 351 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault 6 sup τ >t τ stopping time i h IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (K − Sτ )+ St , (11.31) since τL∗ is a stopping time larger than t ∈ R+ . The inequalities (11.30) and (11.31) allow us to conclude to the equality i h fL∗ (St ) = sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (K − Sτ )+ St . τ >t τ stopping time Remark. Note that the converse inequality (11.31) can also be obtained from the variational PDE (11.28a)-(11.28c) itself, without relying on Proposition 11.8. For this, taking τ = τL∗ we note that the process u 7−→ e −ru∧τL∗ fL∗ (Su∧τL∗ ), u > t, is not only a supermartingale, it is also a martingale until exercise at time τL∗ by (11.27) since Su∧τL∗ > L∗ , hence we have i h e −rt fL∗ (St ) = IE∗ e −r(u∧τL∗ ) fL∗ (Su∧τL∗ )St , u > t, hence after letting u tend to infinity we obtain i h e −rt fL∗ (St ) = IE∗ e −rτL∗ fL∗ (SτL∗ )St i h = IE∗ e −rτL∗ fL∗ (L∗ )St i h = IE∗ e −rτL∗ (K − SτL∗ )+ St i h 6 sup IE∗ e −rτL∗ (K − SτL∗ )+ St , τ >t τ stopping time which shows that e −rt fL∗ (St ) 6 sup τ >t τ stopping time i h IE∗ e −rτ (K − Sτ )+ St , t ∈ R+ . Two-choice optimal stopping at a fixed price level for perpetual call options In this section we consider the pricing of perpetual call options. Given L > K a fixed price, consider the following choices for the exercise of a call option with strike price K: 1. If St > L, then exercise at time t. 352 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options 2. Otherwise, wait until the first hitting time τL = inf{u > t : Su = L} and exercise the option and time τL . In case St > L, the payoff will be (St − K)+ = St − K since K < L 6 St . In case St < L, the price of the option will be h i fL (St ) = IE∗ e −r(τL −t) (SτL − K)+ St h i = IE∗ e −r(τL −t) (L − K)+ St h i = (L − K) IE∗ e −r(τL −t) St . Proposition 11.10. We have fL (x) = x − K, x > L > K, (L − K) x , L 0 < x 6 L. (11.32) Proof. We only need to consider the case S0 = x < L. Note that for all λ ∈ R we have Zt := Stλ e −rλt+λσ 2 t/2−λ2 σ 2 t/2 2 = S0λ e λσB̃t −λ σ 2 t/2 , t ∈ R+ , is a martingale under the risk-neutral probability measure P̃. Hence the stopped process (Zt∧τL )t∈R+ is a martingale and it has constant expectation, i.e. we have IE∗ [Zt∧τL ] = IE∗ [Z0 ] = S0λ , t ∈ R+ . (11.33) Choosing λ such that r = rλ − λσ 2 /2 + λ2 σ 2 /2, i.e. 0 = λ2 σ 2 /2 + λ(r − σ 2 /2) − r = σ2 (λ + 2r/σ 2 )(λ − 1), 2 Relation (11.33) rewrites as " 353 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault IE∗ (St∧τL )λ e −r(t∧τL ) = S0λ , (11.34) t ∈ R+ . Choosing the positive solution λ+ = 1 yields the bound ∗ 0 6 St∧τL e −r(t∧τL ) 6 L, (11.35) t ∈ R+ , since S0 = x < L. Hence by letting t go to infinity in (11.34) and from (11.35) and the dominated convergence theorem we get L IE∗ e −rτL = IE∗ SτL e −rτL 1{τL <∞} h i = IE∗ lim SτL ∧t e −r(τL ∧t) t→∞ = lim IE∗ SτL ∧t e −r(τL ∧t) t→∞ = S0 , which yields S0 . IE∗ e −rτL = L (11.36) One sees from Figure 11.8 that the situation completely differs from the perpetual put option case, as there does not exist an optimal value L∗ that would maximize the option price for all values of the underlying. 450 L=150 L=250 L=400 (x-K)+ x 400 350 Option price 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Underlying 300 350 400 450 Fig. 11.8: Graphs of the option price by exercising at τL for several values of L. The intuition behind this picture is that there is no upper limit above which one should exercise the option, and in order to price the American perpetual call option we have to let L go to infinity, i.e. the “optimal” exercise strategy is to wait indefinitely. Note that P(τL = ∞) = 0 since (St )t∈R+ is a submartingale, cf. (11.15), and the bound (11.35) does not hold for the negative solution λ− = −2r/σ 2 . ∗ 354 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options + (x-K) fL(x) K-L 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 300 150 250 200 L 150 250 200 Underlying x 100 100 Fig. 11.9: Graphs of the option prices parametrized by different values of L. We check from (11.32) that lim fL (x) = x − lim K L→∞ L→∞ x = x, L x > 0. (11.37) As a consequence we have the following proposition. Proposition 11.11. Assume that r > 0. The price of the perpetual American call option is given by IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ St = St , sup t ∈ R+ . (11.38) τ >t τ stopping time Proof. For all L > K we have fL (St ) = IE∗ e −r(τL −t) (SτL − K)+ St 6 sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ St , t ∈ R+ , τ >t τ stopping time hence from (11.37), taking the limit as L → ∞ yields St 6 sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ St . (11.39) τ >t τ stopping time On the other hand, since u 7−→ e −r(u−t) Su is a martingale, by (11.12) we have, for all stopping times τ ∈ [t, ∞), IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ St 6 IE∗ e −r(τ −t) Sτ St 6 St , t ∈ R+ , hence sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ St 6 St , t ∈ R+ , τ >t τ stopping time " 355 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault which shows (11.38) by (11.39). We may also check that since ( e −rt St )t∈R+ is a martingale, the process t 7−→ ( e −rt St −K)+ is a submartingale since the function x 7−→ (x−K)+ is convex, hence for all bounded stopping times τ such that t 6 τ we have h h i i (St − K)+ 6 IE∗ ( e −r(τ −t) Sτ − K)+ St 6 IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ St , t ∈ R+ , showing that it is always better to wait than to exercise at time t, and the optimal exercise time is τ ∗ = +∞. This argument does not apply to American put options. 11.5 Finite Expiration American Options In this section we consider finite expirations American put and call options with strike price K, whose prices can be expressed as h i f (t, St ) = sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (K − Sτ )+ St , t6τ 6T τ stopping time and f (t, St ) = sup h i IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ St . t6τ 6T τ stopping time Two-choice optimal stopping at fixed times with finite expiration We start by considering the optimal stopping problem in a simplified setting where τ ∈ {t, T } is allowed at time t to take only two values t (which corresponds to immediate exercise) and T (wait until maturity). Call options Since x 7−→ (x − K)+ is a nondecreasing convex function and the process ( e −rt St − e −rt K)t∈R+ is a submartingale under P∗ , we know that t 7−→ ( e −rt St − e −rt K)+ is a submartingale by the Jensen inequality (11.2), hence by (11.12), for any stopping time τ 6 t we have (St − K)+ = e rt ( e −rt St − e −rt K)+ 6 e rt IE∗ [( e −rτ Sτ − e −rτ K)+ | Ft ] 6 IE∗ [ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ | Ft ], i.e. (x − K)+ 6 IE∗ [ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ |St = x], x, t > 0. In particular for τ = T > t a deterministic time we get 356 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options (x − K)+ 6 e −r(T −t) IE∗ [(ST − K)+ |St = x], x, t > 0. as illustrated in Figure 11.10 using the Black-Scholes formula for European call options. In other words, taking x = St , the payoff (St −K)+ of immediate exercise at time t is always lower than the expected payoff e −r(T −t) IE∗ [(ST − K)+ |St = x] given by exercise at maturity T . As a consequence, the optimal strategy for the investor is to wait until time T to exercise an American call option, rather than exercising earlier at time t. Black-Scholes European call price Payoff (x-K)+ 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 140 120 underlying 100 HK$ 80 60 10 9 8 7 2 1 0 5 4to 3maturity T-t 6 Time Fig. 11.10: Expected Black-Scholes European call price vs (x, t) 7−→ (x − K)+ . More generally it can be in fact shown that the price of an American call option equals the price of the corresponding European call option with maturity T , i.e. i h f (t, St ) = e −r(T −t) IE∗ (ST − K)+ St , i.e. T is the optimal exercise date, cf. e.g. §14.4 of [Ste01] for a proof. Put options For put options the situation is entirely different. The Black-Scholes formula for European put options shows that the inequality (K − x)+ 6 e −r(T −t) IE∗ [(K − ST )+ |St = x], does not always hold, as illustrated in Figure 11.11. " 357 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Black-Scholes European put price Payoff (K-x)+ 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Time to maturity T-t 6 7 8 9 10 90 100 110 underlying HK$ 120 Fig. 11.11: Black-Scholes put price function vs (x, t) 7−→ (K − x)+ . As a consequence, the optimal exercise decision for a put option depends on whether (K − St )+ 6 e −r(T −t) IE∗ [(K − ST )+ |St ] (in which case one chooses to exercise at time T ) or (K − St )+ > e −r(T −t) IE∗ [(K − ST )+ |St ] (in which case one chooses to exercise at time t). A view from above of the graph of Figure 11.11 shows the existence of an optimal frontier depending on time to maturity and on the value of the underlying asset instead of being given by a constant level L∗ as in Section 11.4, cf. Figure 11.12: 0 1 2 3 4 5 T-t 6 7 8 9 10 120 115 110 100 105 underlying HK$ 95 90 Fig. 11.12: Optimal frontier for the exercise of a put option. At a given time t, one will choose to exercise immediately if (St , T −t) belongs to the blue area on the right, and to wait until maturity if (St , T − t) belongs to the red area on the left. PDE characterization of the finite expiration American put price Let us describe the PDE associated to American put options. After discretization {0 = t0 < t1 < . . . < tN = T } of the time interval [0, T ], the optimal 358 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options exercise strategy for the American put option can be described as follow at each time step: If f (t, St ) > (K − St )+ , wait. If f (t, St ) = (K − St )+ , exercise the option at time t. Note that we cannot have f (t, St ) < (K − St )+ . If f (t, St ) > (K − St )+ the expected return of the option equals that of the risk-free asset. This means that f (t, St ) follows the Black-Scholes PDE rf (t, St ) = ∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f (t, St ) + rSt (t, St ) + σ 2 St2 2 (t, St ), ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x whereas if f (t, St ) = (K − St )+ it is not worth waiting as the return of the option is lower than that of the risk-free asset: rf (t, St ) > ∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f (t, St ) + rSt (t, St ) + σ 2 St2 2 (t, St ). ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x As a consequence, f (t, x) should solve the following variational PDE: f (t, x) > (K − x)+ , ∂f ∂f σ2 2 ∂ 2 f (t, x) + rx (t, x) + x (t, x) 6 rf (t, x), ∂x 2 ∂x2 ∂t ∂f ∂f σ2 2 ∂ 2 f (t, x) + rx (t, x) + x (t, x) − rf (t, x) ∂x 2 ∂x2 ∂t × (f (t, x) − (K − x)+ ) = 0, (11.40a) (11.40b) (11.40c) subject to the terminal condition f (T, x) = (K − x)+ . In other words, equality holds either in (11.40a) or in (11.40b) due to the presence of the term (f (t, x) − (K − x)+ ) in (11.40c). The optimal exercise strategy consists in exercising the put option as soon as the equality f (u, Su ) = (K − Su )+ holds, i.e. at the time τ ∗ = inf{u > t : f (u, Su ) = (K − Su )+ }, after which the process f˜L∗ (St ) ceases to be a martingale and becomes a (strict) supermartingale. " 359 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault A simple procedure to compute numerically the price of an American put option is to use a finite difference scheme while simply enforcing the condition f (t, x) > (K − x)+ at every iteration by adding the condition f (ti , xj ) := max(f (ti , xj ), (K − xj )+ ) right after the computation of f (ti , xj ). The next figure shows a numerical resolution of the variational PDE (11.40a)-(11.40c) using the above simplified (implicit) finite difference scheme, see also [Jac91] for properties of the optimal boundary function. In comparison with Figure 11.7, one can check that the PDE solution becomes timedependent in the finite expiration case. Finite expiration American put price Immediate payoff (K-x)+ L*=2r/(2r+sigma2) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 Time to maturity T-t 90 6 8 110 10 100 underlying 120 Fig. 11.13: Numerical values of the finite expiration American put price. In general, one will choose to exercise the put option when f (t, St ) = (K − St )+ , i.e. within the blue area in Figure (11.13). We check that the optimal threshold L∗ = 90.64 of the corresponding perpetual put option is within the exercise region, which is consistent since the perpetual optimal strategy should allow one to wait longer than in the finite expiration case. The numerical computation of the put price i h f (t, St ) = sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (K − Sτ )+ St t6τ 6T τ stopping time can also be done by dynamic programming and backward optimization using the Longstaff-Schwartz (or Least Square Monte Carlo, LSM) algorithm [LS01], as in Figure 11.14. 360 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm + Immediate payoff (K-x) L*=2r/(2r+sigma2) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 Time to maturity T-t 90 6 8 110 10 100 underlying 120 Fig. 11.14: Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm for the finite expiration American put price. In Figure 11.14 above and Figure 11.15 below the optimal threshold of the corresponding perpetual put option is again L∗ = 90.64 and falls within the exercise region. Also, the optimal threshold is closer to L∗ for large time to maturities, which shows that the perpetual option approximates the finite expiration option in that situation. In the next Figure 11.15 we compare the numerical computation of the American put price by the finite difference and Longstaff-Schwartz methods. 10 Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm Implicit finite differences + Immediate payoff (K-x) Time to maturity T-t 8 6 4 2 0 90 100 110 120 underlying Fig. 11.15: Comparison between Longstaff-Schwartz and finite differences. It turns out that, although both results are very close, the Longstaff-Schwartz method performs better in the critical area close to exercise at it yields the expected continuously differentiable solution, and the simple numerical PDE solution tends to underestimate the optimal threshold. Also, a small error in the values of the solution translates into a large error on the value of the optimal exercise threshold. " 361 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault The finite expiration American call option In the next proposition we compute the price of a finite expiration American call option with an arbitrary convex payoff function φ. Proposition 11.12. Let φ : R −→ R be a nonnegative convex function such that φ(0) = 0. The price of the finite expiration American call option with payoff function φ on the underlying asset (St )t∈R+ is given by i i h h f (t, St ) = sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) φ(Sτ )St = e −r(T −t) IE∗ φ(ST )St , t6τ 6T τ stopping time i.e. the optimal strategy is to wait until the maturity time T to exercise the option, and τ ∗ = T . Proof. Since the function φ is convex and φ(0) = 0 we have φ(px) = φ((1 − p) × 0 + px) 6 (1 − p) × φ(0) + pφ(x) = pφ(x), for all p ∈ [0, 1] and x > 0. Hence the process s 7−→ e −rs φ(St+s ) is a submartingale since taking p = e −r(τ −t) we have e −rs IE∗ [φ (St+s ) | Ft ] > e −rs φ (IE∗ [St+s | Ft ]) > φ e −rs IE∗ [St+s | Ft ] = φ(St ), where we used Jensen’s inequality (11.2) applied to the convex function φ. Hence by the optional stopping theorem for submartingales, cf (11.10), for all (bounded) stopping times τ comprised between t and T we have, IE∗ [ e −r(τ −t) φ(Sτ ) | Ft ] 6 e −r(T −t) IE∗ [φ(ST ) | Ft ], i.e. it is always better to wait until time T than to exercise at time τ ∈ [t, T ], and this yields i i h h sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) φ(Sτ )St 6 e −r(T −t) IE∗ φ(ST )St . t6τ 6T τ stopping time The converse inequality i h e −r(T −t) IE∗ φ(ST )St 6 sup t6τ 6T τ stopping time i h IE∗ e −r(τ −t) φ(Sτ )St , being obvious because T is a stopping time. As a consequence of Proposition 11.12 applied to the convex function φ(x) = (x − K)+ , the price of the finite expiration American call option is given by 362 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options f (t, St ) = sup t6τ 6T τ stopping time i h IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)+ St i h = e −r(T −t) IE∗ (ST − K)+ St , i.e. the optimal strategy is to wait until the maturity time T to exercise the option. In the following table we summarize the optimal exercise strategies for the pricing of American options. Option type Perpetual Finite expiration K − St , 0 < St 6 L∗ , Put −2r/σ2 option St (K − L∗ ) , St > L∗ . L∗ τ ∗ = τL∗ Call option St , τ ∗ = +∞. Solve the PDE (11.40a)-(11.40c) for f (t, x) or use Longstaff-Schwartz [LS01]. τ ∗ = T ∧ inf{u > t : f (u, Su ) = (K − Su )+ }. e −r(T −t) IE∗ [(ST − K)+ | St ], τ∗ = T. Exercises Exercise 11.1 i.e. B0 = 0. Let (Bt )t∈R+ be a standard Brownian motion started at 0, a) Is the process t 7−→ (2 − Bt )+ a submartingale, a martingale or a supermartingale? b) Is the process t 7−→ e Bt a submartingale, a martingale, or a supermartingale? c) Consider the random time ν defined by ν := inf{t ∈ R+ : Bt = B2t }, which represents the first time the curves (Bt )t∈R+ and (B2t )t∈R+ intersect. Is ν a stopping time? d) Consider the random time τ defined by τ := inf{t ∈ R+ : e Bt = (α + βt) e t/2 }, which represents the first time geometric Brownian motion Bt crosses the straight line t 7−→ α + βt. Is τ a stopping time? " 363 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault e) If τ is a stopping time, compute IE[τ ] by the Doob stopping time theorem in the cases (α > 1 and β < 0) or (α < 1 and β > 0). Exercise 11.2 Stopping times. Let (Bt )t∈R+ be a standard Brownian motion started at 0. a) Consider the random time ν defined by ν := inf{t ∈ R+ : Bt = B1 }, which represents the first time Brownian motion Bt hits the level B1 . Is ν a stopping time? b) Consider the random time τ defined by τ := inf t ∈ R+ : e Bt = α e −t/2 , which represents the first time the exponential of Brownian motion Bt crosses the path of t 7−→ α e −t/2 , where α > 1. Is τ a stopping time? If τ is a stopping time, compute IE[ e −τ ] by the stopping time theorem. c) Consider the random time τ defined by τ := inf t ∈ R+ : Bt2 = 1 + αt , which represents the first time the process (Bt2 )t∈R+ crosses the straight line t 7−→ 1 + αt, with α ∈ (−∞, 1). Is τ a stopping time? If τ is a stopping time, compute IE[τ ] by the Doob stopping time theorem. Exercise 11.3 Consider a standard Brownian motion (Bt )t∈R+ started at B0 = 0, and let τL = inf{t ∈ R+ : Bt = L} denote the first hitting time of level L > 0. a) Compute the Laplace transform IE[ e −rτL ] of τL for all r > 0. √ Hint: Use the stopping time theorem and the fact that e 2rBt −rt t∈R+ is a martingale when r > 0. b) Find the optimal level stopping strategy depending on the value of r > 0 for the maximization problem sup IE e −rτL BτL . L>0 364 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options Exercise 11.4 (Doob-Meyer decomposition in discrete time). Let (Mn )n∈N be a discrete-time submartingale with respect to a filtration (Fn )n∈N , with F−1 = {∅, Ω}. a) Show that there exists two processes (Nn )n∈N and (An )n∈N such that i) (Nn )n∈N is a martingale with respect to (Fn )n∈N , ii) (An )n∈N is nondecreasing, i.e. An 6 An+1 a.s., n ∈ N, iii) (An )n∈N is predictable in the sense that An is Fn−1 -measurable, n ∈ N, and iv) Mn = Nn + An , n ∈ N. Hint: Let A0 := 0, An+1 := An + IE[Mn+1 − Mn | Fn ], n > 0, and define (Nn )n∈N in such a way that it satisfies the four required properties. b) Show that for all bounded stopping times σ and τ such that σ 6 τ a.s., we have IE[Mσ ] 6 IE[Mτ ]. Hint: Use the stopping time Theorem 11.7 for martingales and (11.11). Exercise 11.5 Consider a two-period binomial model (Sk )k=0,1,2 with interet rate r = 0% and risk-neutral measure (p∗ , q ∗ ): /3 p∗ = 2 /3 p∗ = 2 S1 = 1.2 q∗ = 1 /3 /3 p∗ = 2 S0 = 1 q∗ = 1 /3 S2 = 1.44 S2 = 1.08 S1 = 0.9 q∗ = 1 /3 S2 = 0.81 a) At time t = 1, would you exercise the American put with strike price K = 1.25 if S1 = 1.2? If S1 = 0.9? b) What would be your strategy at time t = 0?∗ ∗ Download the corresponding discrete-time IPython notebook that can be run here. " 365 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Exercise 11.6 Let r > 0 and σ > 0. 2 a) Show that for every C > 0, the function f (x) := Cx−2r/σ solves the differential equation 1 2 2 00 0 rf (x) = rxf (x) + σ x f (x), 2 lim f (x) = 0. x→∞ b) Show that for every K > 0 there exists a unique level L∗ ∈ (0, K) and constant C > 0 such that f (x) also solves the smooth fit conditions f (L∗ ) = K − L∗ and f 0 (L∗ ) = −1. Exercise 11.7 American binary options. An American binary (or digital) call (resp. put) option with maturity T > 0 can be exercised at any time t ∈ [0, T ], at the choice of the option holder. The call (resp. put) option exercised at time t yields the payoff 1[K,∞) (St ) (resp. 1[0,K] (St )), and the option holder wants to find an exercise strategy that will maximize his payoff. a) Consider the following possible situations at time t: i) St > K, ii) St < K. In each case (i) and (ii), tell whether you would choose to exercise the call option immediately or to wait. b) Consider the following possible situations at time t: i) St > K, ii) St 6 K. In each case (i) and (ii), tell whether you would choose to exercise the put option immediately or to wait. c) The price CdAm (t, St ) of an American binary call option is known to satisfy the Black-Scholes PDE rCdAm (t, x) = ∂CdAm ∂C Am 1 ∂ 2 CdAm (t, x) + rx d (t, x) + σ 2 x2 (t, x). ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x2 Based on your answers to Question (a), how would you set the boundary conditions CdAm (t, K), 0 6 t < T , and CdAm (T, x), 0 6 x < K? d) The price PdAm (t, St ) of an American binary put option is known to satisfy the same Black-Scholes PDE 366 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options rPdAm (t, x) = ∂PdAm ∂P Am 1 ∂ 2 PdAm (t, x). (11.41) (t, x) + rx d (t, x) + σ 2 x2 ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x2 Based on your answers to Question (b), how would you set the boundary conditions PdAm (t, K), 0 6 t < T , and PdAm (T, x), x > K? e) Show that the optimal exercise strategy for the American binary call option with strike price K is to exercise as soon as the underlying reaches the level K, at the time τK = inf{u > t : Su = K}, starting from any level St 6 K, and that the price CdAm (t, St ) of the American binary call option is given by CdAm (t, x) = IE[ e −r(τK −t) 1{τK <T } | St = x]. f) Show that the price CdAm (t, St ) of the American binary call option is equal to (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) + log(x/K) x √ CdAm (t, x) = Φ K σ T −t x −2r/σ2 −(r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) + log(x/K) √ + , 0 6 x 6 K. Φ K σ T −t Show that this formula is consistent with your answer to Question (c). g) Show that the optimal exercise strategy for the American binary put option with strike price K is to exercise as soon as the underlying reaches the level K, at the time τK = inf{u > t : Su = K}, starting from any level St > K, and that the price PdAm (t, St ) of the American binary put option is PdAm (t, x) = IE[ e −r(τK −t) 1{τK <T } | St = x], x > K. h) Show that the price PdAm (t, St ) of the American binary put option is equal to x −(r + σ 2 /2)τ − log(x/K) √ PdAm (t, x) = Φ K σ τ x −2r/σ2 (r + σ 2 /2)τ − log(x/K) √ + Φ , x > K, K σ τ and that this formula is consistent with your answer to Question (d). i) Does the call-put parity hold for American binary options? " 367 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Exercise 11.8 American forward contracts. Consider (St )t∈R+ an asset price process given by dSt = rdt + σdBt , St where r > 0 and (Bt )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion. a) Compute the price f (t, St ) = sup t6τ 6T τ stopping time i h IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (K − Sτ )St , and optimal exercise strategy of a finite expiration American type short forward contract with strike price K on the underlying asset (St )t∈R+ , with payoff K − ST . b) Compute the price i h f (t, St ) = sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) (Sτ − K)St , t6τ 6T τ stopping time and optimal exercise strategy of a finite expiration American type long forward contract with strike price K on the underlying asset (St )t∈R+ , with payoff ST − K. c) How are the answers to Questions (a) and (b) modified in the case of perpetual options? Exercise 11.9 Consider an underlying asset price process written as St = S0 e rt+σB̃t −σ 2 t/2 , t ∈ R+ , where (B̃t )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion under the risk-neutral probability measure P∗ , with σ, r > 0. a) Show that the processes (Yt )t∈R+ and (Zt )t∈R+ defined as −2r/σ 2 Yt := e −rt St and Zt := e −rt St , t ∈ R+ , are both martingales under P∗ . b) Let τL denote the hitting time τL = inf{u ∈ R+ : Su = L}. By application of the stopping time theorem to the martingales (Yt )t∈R+ and (Zt )t∈R+ , show that ∗ IE e −rτL | S0 = x = 0 < x 6 L, x/L, 2 (x/L)−2r/σ , 368 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html x > L. " American Options c) Compute the price IE∗ [ e −rτL (K − SτL )] of a short forward contract under the exercise strategy τL . d) Show that for every value of S0 = x there is an optimal value L∗x of L that maximizes L 7−→ IE[ e −rτL (K − SτL )]. e) Would you use the strategy τL∗x = inf{u ∈ R+ : Su = L∗x } as an optimal exercise strategy for the short forward contract with payoff K − Sτ ? Exercise 11.10 Let p > 1 and consider a power put option with payoff (κ − Sτ )p if Sτ 6 κ, ((κ − Sτ )+ )p = 0 if Sτ > κ, when exercised at time τ , on an underlying asset whose price St is written as St = S0 e rt+σBt −σ 2 t/2 , t ∈ R+ , where (Bt )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion under the risk-neutral probability measure P∗ , r > 0 is the risk-free interest rate, and σ > 0 is the volatility coefficient. Given L ∈ (0, κ) a fixed price, consider the following choices for the exercise of a put option with strike price κ: i) If St 6 L, then exercise at time t. ii) Otherwise, wait until the first hitting time τL := inf{u > t : Su = L}, and exercise the option at time τL . a) Under the above strategy, what is the option payoff equal to if St 6 L ? b) Show that in case St > L, the price of the option is equal to i h fL (St ) = (κ − L)p IE∗ e −r(τL −t) St . c) Compute the price fL (St ) of the option at time t. −2r/σ 2 Hint. Recall that by (11.25) we have IE∗ [ e −r(τL −t) | St = x] = (x/L) , x > L. d) Compute the optimal value L∗ that maximizes L 7−→ fL (x) for all fixed x > 0. Hint. Observe that, geometrically, the slope of x 7−→ fL (x) at x = L∗ is equal to −p(κ − L∗ )p−1 . 369 " This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault e) How would you compute the American option price f (t, St ) = sup IE∗ e −r(τ −t) ((κ − Sτ )+ )p St ? τ >t τ stopping time Exercise 11.11 Same questions as in Exercise 11.10, this time for the option with payoff κ − (Sτ )p when exercised at time τ , with p > 0. Exercise 11.12 American put options with dividends, cf. Exercise 8.5 in [Shr04]. Consider a dividend-paying asset priced as St = S0 e (r−δ)t+σB̃t −σ 2 t/2 , t ∈ R+ , where r > 0 is the risk-free interest rate, δ > 0 is the continuous dividend rate, (B̃t )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion under the risk-neutral probability measure P∗ , and σ > 0 is the volatility coefficient. Consider the american put option with payoff κ − Sτ if Sτ 6 κ, (κ − Sτ )+ = 0 if Sτ > κ, when exercised at the stopping time τ > 0. Given L ∈ (0, κ) a fixed level, consider the following exercise strategy for the above option: - If St 6 L, then exercise at time t. - If St > L, wait until the hitting time τL := inf{u > t : Su = L}, and exercise the option at time τL . a) Give the intrinsic option payoff at time t = 0 in case S0 6 L. In the sequel we work with S0 = x > L. (λ) b) Show that for all λ ∈ R the process Zt t∈R+ defined as (λ) := Zt St S0 λ e −t((r−δ)λ−λ(1−λ)σ 2 /2) is a martingale under the risk-neutral probability measure P∗ . (λ) c) Show that Zt t∈R+ can be rewritten as (λ) Zt = St S0 λ e −rt , t ∈ R+ , for two values λ− 6 0 6 λ+ of λ that can be computed explicitly. d) Choosing the negative solution λ− , show that 370 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options (λ− ) 0 6 Zt = St S0 λ− e −rt 6 L S0 λ− , 0 6 t < τL . e) Let τL denote the hitting time τL = inf{u ∈ R+ : Su 6 L}. By application of the stopping time theorem to the martingale (Zt )t∈R+ , show that λ− S0 IE∗ e −rτL = , (11.42) L with λ− := −(r − δ − σ 2 /2) − p (r − δ − σ 2 /2)2 + 4rσ 2 /2 . σ2 (11.43) f) Show that for all L ∈ (0, K) we have h i IE∗ e −rτL (K − SτL )+ S0 = x 0 < x 6 L, K − x, √ = 2 /2)2 +4rσ 2 /2 −(r−δ−σ2 /2)− (r−δ−σ σ2 (K − L) x , x > L. L g) Show that the value L∗ of L that maximizes h i fL (x) := IE∗ e −rτL (K − SτL )+ S0 = x for all x is given by L∗ = λ− K. λ− − 1 h) Show that fL∗ (x) = K − x, 0 < x 6 L∗ = λ− K, λ− − 1 λ −1 λ− 1 − λ− − x λ− , x > L∗ = K, K −λ− λ− − 1 i) Show by hand computation that fL∗ (x) satisfies the variational differential equation " 371 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault fL∗ (x) > (K − x)+ , 1 2 2 00 0 (r − δ)xfL∗ (x) + σ x fL∗ (x) 6 rfL∗ (x), 2 1 rfL∗ (x) − (r − δ)xfL0 ∗ (x) − σ 2 x2 fL00∗ (x) 2 × (f ∗ (x) − (K − x)+ ) = 0. (11.44a) (11.44b) (11.44c) L j) By Itô’s formula, check that the discounted portfolio price t 7−→ e −rt fL∗ (St ) is a supermartingale. k) Show that we have fL∗ (S0 ) > τ sup IE∗ e −rτ (K − Sτ )+ S0 . stopping time l) Show that the stopped process s 7−→ e −r(s∧τL∗ ) fL∗ (Ss∧τL∗ ), s ∈ R+ , is a martingale, and that fL∗ (S0 ) 6 τ sup IE∗ e −rτ (K − Sτ )+ . stopping time m) Fix t ∈ R+ and let τL∗ denote the hitting time τL∗ = inf{u > t : Su = L∗ }. Conclude that the price of the perpetual American put option with dividend is given for all t ∈ R+ by fL∗ (St ) = IE∗ e −r(τL∗ −t) (K − SτL∗ )+ St λ− K − St , K, 0 < St 6 λ− − 1 = λ −1 λ− 1 − λ− − St λ− , St > K, K −λ− λ− − 1 where λ− < 0 is given by (11.43), and τL∗ = inf{u > t : Su 6 L}. 372 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options Exercise 11.13 American call options with dividends, cf. § 9.3 of [Wil06]. 2 Consider a dividend-paying asset priced as St = S0 e (r−δ)t+σB̃t −σ t/2 , t ∈ R+ , where r > 0 is the risk-free interest rate, δ > 0 is the continuous dividend rate, and σ > 0. 2 (λ) a) Show that for all λ ∈ R the process Zt := (St )λ e −t((r−δ)λ−λ(1−λ)σ /2) is a martingale under P∗ . (λ) b) Show that we have Zt = (St )λ e −rt for two values λ− 6 0, 1 6 λ+ of λ satisfying a certain condition. (λ ) c) Show that 0 6 Zt + 6 Lλ+ , 0 6 t < τL := inf{u > t : Su = L}, and compute IE∗ e −rτL (SτL − K)+ S0 = x , with S0 = x < L and K < L. Exercise 11.14 Optimal stopping for exchange options [GS96]. We consider two risky assets S1 and S2 modeled by 2 S1 (t) = S1 (0) e σ1 Wt +rt−σ2 t/2 2 S2 (t) = S2 (0) e σ2 Wt +rt−σ2 t/2 , (11.45) t ∈ R+ , with σ2 > σ1 > 0, and the perpetual optimal stopping problem sup τ stopping time and IE[ e −rτ (S1 (τ ) − S2 (τ ))+ ], where (Wt )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion under P. a) Find α > 1 such that the process Zt := e −rt S1 (t)α S2 (t)1−α , t ∈ R+ , (11.46) is a martingale. b) For some fixed L > 1, consider the hitting time τL = inf t ∈ R+ : S1 (t) > LS2 (t) , and show that IE[ e −rτL (S1 (τL ) − S2 (τL ))+ ] = (L − 1) IE[ e −rτL S2 (τL )]. c) By an application of the stopping time theorem to the martingale (11.46), show that we have IE[ e −rτL (S1 (τL ) − S2 (τL ))+ ] = L−1 S1 (0)α S2 (0)1−α . Lα d) Show that the price of the perpetual exchange option is given by sup τ stopping time " IE[ e −rτ (S1 (τ ) − S2 (τ ))+ ] = L∗ − 1 S1 (0)α S2 (0)1−α , (L∗ )α 373 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault where L∗ = α . α−1 e) As an application of Question (d), compute the perpetual American put option price sup IE[ e −rτ (κ − S2 (τ ))+ ] τ stopping time when r = σ22 /2. Exercise 11.15 Consider an underlying asset whose price is written as St = S0 e rt+σBt −σ 2 t/2 , t ∈ R+ , where (Bt )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion under the risk-neutral probability measure P∗ , σ > 0 denotes the volatility coefficient, and r ∈ R is the (λ) risk-free rate. For any λ ∈ R we consider the process (Zt )t∈R+ defined by (λ) Zt 2 := e −rt (St )λ = (S0 )λ e λσBt −λ σ 2 t/2+(λ−1)(λ+2r/σ 2 )σ 2 t/2 , t ∈ R+ . (11.47) (λ) a) Assume that r > −σ 2 /2. Show that, under P∗ , the process (Zt )t∈R+ is a supermartingale when −2r/σ 2 6 λ 6 1, and that it is a submartingale when λ ∈ (−∞, −2r/σ 2 ] ∪ [1, ∞). (λ) b) Assume that r 6 −σ 2 /2. Show that, under P∗ , the process (Zt )t∈R+ is 2 a supermartingale when 1 6 λ 6 −2r/σ , and that it is a submartingale when λ ∈ (−∞, 1] ∪ [−2r/σ 2 , ∞). c) From now on we assume that r < 0. Given L > 0, let τL denote the hitting time τL = inf{u ∈ R+ : Su = L}. (λ) By application of the stopping time theorem to (Zt )t∈R+ , show that ∗ IE e −rτL 1{τL <∞} | S0 = x 6 2 (x/L)min(1,−2r/σ ) , 2 (x/L)max(1,−2r/σ ) , x > L, 0 < x 6 L. d) Deduce an upper bound on the price IE∗ e −rτL (K − SτL )+ | S0 = x of a European put option exercised in finite time under the strategy τL when L ∈ (0, K) and x > L. e) Show that when r 6 −σ 2 /2, the upper bound of Question (d) increases and tends to +∞ when L decreases to 0. 374 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " American Options f) Find an upper bound on the price IE∗ e −rτL (SτL − K)+ 1{τL <∞} | S0 = x of a European call option exercised in finite time under the strategy τL when L > K and x 6 L. g) Show that when −σ 2 /2 6 r < 0, the upper bound of Question (f) increases in L > K and tends to S0 as L increases to +∞. " 375 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html