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٨ ﻡ ﻃﻼﻉ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﳛﺎﱐ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﺪﻑ KIO Kuwait: Country Report, The Economist Intelligence Unit, 1991-1993. Altman, 1968 ﺎﻝﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍ Ratio Analysis Discriminant Analysis Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Merwin, 1942Foulke, 1961 Hickman, 1958 Beaver, 1967 Altman,1968Moyer, 1977 Zeta Model 1977 Discriminant Analysis Manufacturers Altman, Haldeman & Narayanan, ١٩٦٨ ،ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺃﻟﺘﻤﺎﻥ Discriminant Analysis X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ/( ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞX1) Merwin, 1942 Merwin ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ/( ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﺘﺠﺰﺓX2) Dun & Bradstreet, 1976 ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ/( ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐX3) ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﺘﺮﻳﺔ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ/( ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﳊﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔX4) ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ/( ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕX5) Z = 1.2 X1 + 1.4 X2 + 3.3 X3 + 0.6 X4 + 1 X5 0.414 0.355 0.154 2.477 1.9 -0.061 -0.626 -0.318 -0.401 1.5 X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X3 Z Z Validity Weston & Reliability Brigham, 1981, p. 193. Moyer, 1977Altman, 1978 Weston & Brealy & Myers, 1981, 1984Brigham, 1978, 1984 Discriminant Coefficients Constant Altman 1968, p. 599 X4 X5 X4X5 X4 Z X5 Altman, 1968 Brealy & Myers, 1984, 1988 Kuwait: Country Report, 1991, No. 3, 1992, No. 1, 1993 ﺎﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺃﺳﻠﻮ ZZ Z Z Z Manufacturers Spreadsheets Programs Software Quattro Pro for Windows ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺘﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ X5 X5 X4 X4 X5 X3 X3 X3 ﺿﻌﻴﻔﺔ X Z 2 X1 X4 X2 X2 X1 X1 ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ Z (ﺿﻌﻴﻔﺔ )ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺃﻟﺘﻤﺎﻥ (ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ )ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺃﻟﺘﻤﺎﻥ Z Z Z Z Perfect Market Z Z Z Z Z X4Z Z X4 X5 X4 X3 X2 X1 Z ﺿﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳــﻂ ﻧﺎﺟﺤـﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳــﻂ (ﺿﻌﻴﻔﺔ )ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺃﻟﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ (ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ )ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺃﻟﺘﻤﺎﻥ Z Z Z Z Z Z ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻗﻲ X5 x3 x2 X4X4 Z X5 X4 X3 X2 X1 :ﺿﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﻧﺎﺟﺤـﺔ (ﺿﻌﻴﻔﺔ )ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﻟﺘﻤﺎﻥ (ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ )ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﻟﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ Z Z Z X2 X5X2 Z X5 X4 X3 X2 X1 ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳــﻂ (ﺿﻌﻴﻔﺔ )ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﻟﺘﻤﺎﻥ X5 X5 X4 X4 X3 X3 X2 X2 X1 X1 (ﺿﻌﻴﻔﺔ )ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﻟﺘﻤﺎﻥ (ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ )ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﻟﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺿﻌﻴﻔــﺔ ﻧﺎﺟﺤـــﺔ X4 X4 X4X1 X1 X4 Al-Deehani, 1990 ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ :ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ :ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﺤﺔ Yavas et al., 1990 ﺍﳋﻼﺻﺔ Z X4 Z X5 Z X4 ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﺃﻭﻻ ﺟﺎﺳﻢ،ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺪﻭﻥ ﻫﺸﺎﻡ،ﺣﺴﺒﻮ ﺗﻘﺎﺭﻳﺮ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺍ ﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ: ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ Al-Deehani, Talla, Understanding Corporate Capital Investment Decisions in Kuwait, PhD. Thesis, Bath University, UK (1990). Altman, E., Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the prediction of corporate Bankruptcy, Journal of Finance, 23 (September 1968). Altman, E., Examining Moyer's Re-examination of Forecasting Financial Failure, Financial Management Association, 1978. Altman, E., Haldeman, R. and Narnyanan, P., ZETA Analysis: A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations, Journal of Banking and Finance (June 1977). Beaver, W. H., Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure, Empirical Research in Accounting, Selected Studies, 1966, Institute of Professional Accounting, January, 1967. Brealy, R. and Myers, S., Principles of Corporate Finance, 2nd edition, McGraw-Hill, 1984. Brealy, R. and Myers, S., Principles of Corporate Finance, 3rd edition, McGraw-Hill, 1988. Dun and Bradstreet, The Failure Record (New York), 1976. Foulke, Roy, Practical Financial Statement Analysis, 5th Ed., New York, McGraw-Hill, 1961. Hickman, W. B., Corporate Bond Quality and Investor Experience, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1958. Kuwait: Country Report, The Economist Intelligence Unit, (1991, 1992, 1993) Merwin, C., "Financing Small Corporations", New York: Bureau of Economic Research, 1942. Moyer, R. C., "Forecasting Financial Failure: A Re-examination", Financial Management (Spring 1977). Weston, J. F. and Brigham, E., Managreial Finance, The Dryden Press, 1978. Weston, J. F. and Brigham, E., Managreial Finance, The Dryden Press, 1981. Weston, J. F. and Brigham, E., Managreial Finance, The Dryden Press, 1984. Yavas, U., Yasin, M., Wafa, M. and AI-Qudsi, "Kuwait Commercial Banks: Challenges and Strategic Responses", International Journal of Bank Marketing, 8:1, 1990. An Implementation of Altman's Model for the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy: The Case of Kuwait TALLA M. AL-DEEHANI Assistant Professor Department of Business Administration College of Commerce, Economics & Political Science Kuwait University, Kuwait ABSTRACT. This study attempts to explain the extent of efficiency of Kuwait shareholding companies and their characteristics in comparison with western standards for the period 1988-1992. Altman's model has been chosen as a measurement to achieve hat. There are five ratios representing its components which explain five different types of company performance related to each other. The study classifies companies into two groups: "successful" and "weak" along the four years. It is noticed that the degree of failure of both groups is affected by only two ratios, one relating to market value and the other relating to productivity. The resulting five ratios for both groups are below Altman standards. It also shows that our ratios for "successful" companies are below the standards including the one related to productivity which is even below Altman's "failure" standard. If this is the case, then it can fairly be argued that even the "successful" companies are in fact "weak". This leads to the argument that Kuwait companies are generally weak, especially in their ability to generate sales and there market value doesn't reflect the actual value. A clear fault in the balance of the model is caused by an exaggeration in the behavior of the Kuwait market represented by overvaluation of companies, market values which then led to classifying some companies as "successful".
