Download Stat 414.2 - Penn State Department of Statistics

Math 414 and Statistics 414
Fall 2011 Section 002 Introduction
to Probability Theory
MWF 11:15-12:05
Wartik 105
Course Personnel:
Professor: Naomi Altman [email protected] ; 312 Thomas 865-3791
TA: Xiaoyu Liu
Office Hours
Prof. Altman
Xiaoyu Liu
Prof. Altman
Xiaoyu Liu
Prof. Altman
Mon 12:15-1:15
Mon 2:30-3:30
Tue 2:30-3:30
Wed 2:30-3:30
Thu 2:30-3:30
312 Thomas (or 320)
316 Thomas (or 320)
312 Thomas (or 320)
316 Thomas (or 320)
312 Thomas (or 320)
or by appointment: [email protected]
Text: A First Course in Probability 8th ed, Ross (required)
Schaum's Outline Series has 2 study guides with many worked out programs that may be useful
for those requiring extra practice:
Probability
Calculus
Prerequisites: Math 230 or Math 231
Learning Outcomes: Probability theory is used in almost all disciplines in the physical,
biological and social sciences, as well as in decision and policy, business, medicine, insurance
and daily life. e.g.
On March 9, 1979, the NRC staff produced a memo for then Commissioner Peter Bradford
entitled, "Probabilities That The Next Major Accident Occurs Within Prescribed Intervals." The
memorandum states that:
a. The probability is less than .5 that the next (i.e., the first) major accident occurs within
the next 400 reactor years.
b. The probability is less than .05 that the next major accident occurs within the next 21
reactor years.
c. The probability is larger than .5 that the next major accident occurs after the next 400
reactor years. This is equivalent to statement (a).34
Note: one nuclear reactor operating for one year equals a reactor year.
Less than three weeks later, the unit 2 reactor at Three Mile Island (Harrisburg, PA) suffered a
meltdown of the radioactive fuel in the reactor core.
http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/news/the-probability-of-a-nuclear-a
In this class you will learn the mathematics of the type of probability theory that might have led
the NRC to make these probability assessments, and how to work with probabilities. You will
also have a lot of practise in using calculus and mathematical reasoning. (But you will not learn
anything about the safety of nuclear reactors (or fracking or oil tar sands) - sorry.)
Homework
Weekly assignments are designed to help you assimilate and practice the techniques covered in
class and to prepare you for the material to come. Assignments are due at the start of Fridays
lecture but may be turned in as late as Friday at 2:00. (They can be placed in my mailbox in 324
Thomas.)
The homework with the lowest grade due before Thanksgiving will be dropped. Homeworks due
after Thanksgiving cannot be dropped.
Students are encouraged to discuss homework, but the work you hand in must be your
own. Copying will be penalized.
Late assignments will be allowed only with the permission from Prof. Altman, documented
by a note or e-mail. Permission will be granted in cases of medical or family emergencies,
or conflicting university commitments. You are welcome to check with Prof. Altman if you
feel that you need an extension.
Exams
Dates (subject to change):
MidTerm Exam: week of Sept. 26
MidTerm Exam: week of Oct. 24
Final Exam: week of Dec. 12 (set by university)
All examinations will be in-class. Exams will be closed-book, but students may bring 2 sheets of
8.5x11" paper with formulas, etc, any font, both sides.
Calculators permitted, but no computers or devices with internet access. Dictionaries are OK.
Grade Breakdown
homework 20% (see above for dropped homework policy)
midterm 1 25%
midterm 2 25%
final exam 30% (cumulative)
lower limit for letter grades: F below 58
58
D
65
C
70
C+
75
B-
80
B
85
B+
90
A-
94
A
Attendance Policy
Students missing classes for reasons other than medical and family emergencies, or pre-approved
absences, may not use faculty or TA office hours until attendance is resumed.
Academic Integrity
Academic integrity is the pursuit of scholarly activity free from fraud and deception
and is an educational objective of this institution. All University policies regarding
academic integrity apply to this course. Academic dishonesty includes, but is not
limited to, cheating, plagiarizing, fabricating of information or citations, facilitating
acts of academic dishonesty by others, having unauthorized possession of
examinations, submitting work of another person or work previously used without
informing the instructor, using internet resources when not allowed by the instructor
or tampering with the academic work of other students.
All Penn State and Eberly College of Science policies regarding academic integrity apply to this
course. See http://www.science.psu.edu/academic/Integrity/index.html for details.