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Chief Economist Complex Section Africa Food Security Statistics Department Issue N° 5, April 2014 AfDB Contents Africa Food Security Brief Special focus on climate change Impacts Introduction 1 1. Introduction 2.1. International food price trends 2.2. Food prices in African subregions 2.3. Food security trends in Africa’s subregions 3. Climate change and food security in Africa 3.1. Global significance of climate change 3.2. Climate change impacts and food security prospects in Africa 3.3. The African response to climate change 3.4. Way forward 4. Conclusion Mthuli Ncube Chief Economist and Vice President Office of the Chief Economist [email protected] +216 7110. 2062 Charles Leyeka Lufumpa Director Statistics Department [email protected] +216 7110 2175 Steve Kayizzi Mugerwa Director Development Research Department [email protected] +216 7110 2064 Victor Murinde Director Africa Development Institute [email protected] +216 7110 2072 The developmental and poverty-reduction the Brief does not limit itself to this period imperatives associated with food security in alone but also considers other months in Africa provide the fundamental rationale the calendar year 2013, based on the behind the Africa Food Security Brief. The availability of data at the time of finalizing the Brief monitors food prices and food Brief. This is to ensure as comprehensive an availability-related factors and trends in the overview and analysis as possible. region, as volatilities in these areas in the short term often signal deteriorating food The special thematic focus of this fifth issue security and worsening poverty. is climate change. This focus was chosen This fifth issue of the Brief provides an term climatic changes on short-term food because of the significant impacts of longupdate of the global and African food price production, food prices and the food and food production trends, focusing on the security situation in Africa and the world at period July to December 2013. However, large. Section 2. Food prices and the food security situation in Africa Food prices and the food security situation in Africa 2 2.1. International food price trends1 January and December 2013 was in the order of 3.0 percent, though a steeper The year 2013 witnessed an overall decrease of 6 percent occurred during May downward trend in the global Food Price and September 2013. The main drivers of Index (FPI) as measured by the FAO2. this decline were falling international cereal Nonetheless, some upward reversals were prices, due primarily to higher than evident in March, April, and October (Chart expected supplies of cereal throughout the 1). The overall decline in the FPI between year. Prepared by an ESTA.2 Team comprising: Oliver J. M. Chinganya, Manager Statistical Capacity Building Division; Vincent Ngendakumuna and Caesar Cheelo (Consultants), under the direction of Charles L. Lufumpa, Director, Statistics Department. The findings of this Brief reflect the opinions of the authors and not those of the African Development Bank, its Board of Directors or the countries they represent. 1 Charts 1 to 2 are based on FAO data (http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/). Chart 3 is based on FAO data (http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool/). 2 The FAO’s global Food Price Index (FPI) measures monthly price changes in a basket of food commodities, including meat, dairy, cereals, oils, fats, and sugar African Development Bank brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Complex Chief Economist Complex Global food prices showed some supplies and the recovery in global percent increase) and oil (2.0 percent volatility during the second half of 2013, inventories of cereal. decrease) for this period. In the latter An analysis of the major composites of December 2013, there were more 1.3 percent in October, a dip of 0.16 the FAO Food Price Index (FPI) in Chart significant increases in meat prices (3.0 percent in November, prior a marginal 2 shows significant variation in prices percent), oil prices (8.0 percent) and recovery of 0.2 percent in December. between January and December 2013 dairy The FAO points out though that the for percent decreases observed in sugar (3.0 volatility in food prices in 2013 was increase), cereal products (22.0 percent percent) and cereal prices (7.0 percent) much less than that observed in the decrease), and sugar (12.0 percent were largely attributable to the record past few years3. Mitigation factors decrease). By contrast, there were only harvests of corn (maize) in the United during 2013 were the improved food marginal changes in meat prices (2.0 States. with a 0.35 percent decrease between August and September 2013, a rise of part of the year, between August and dairy products (26.0 products (4.0 percent).The Charte 1. Global Food Price Index (FPI) Chart 3 monitors trends in international the year as a whole (January to cereal prices because of the critical December), significant price decreases (28.0 percent) and Australian wheat impact this commodity group has on were noted for the following: US maize (15.0 percent). the food security situation in Africa. For No. 2 yellow (35.0 percent), Thailand A f r i c a n 3 D e v e l o p m e n t rice (31.0 percent), US Gulf Sorghum B a n k http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/204122/icode/ Accessed 18/12/2013 2 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Chief Economist Complex Complex Charte 2. Global monthly price indices of food commodity groups Charte 3. International Cereal Prices A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k Between the months of August and December 2013, the economies for which data were available the decrease in cereal largest decline was recorded for Thailand rice (18.0 percent), prices were below 10.0 percent. followed by US maize (17.0 percent), while for all other 3 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Complex Chief Economist Complex 2.2. Food prices in African subregions4 because of delayed onset of rains fairly stable in most Sahelian countries whereas above-average harvests were whereas they declined in most countries forecast in the Gulf of Guinea countries, in the Gulf of Guinea. Chart 4 below Food prices across African subregions due to plentiful rainfall. The resulting net shows the trend of selected cereal exhibited wide variations, as detailed production for the subregion was a prices in the subregion. The Sahelian below. slight increase in aggregate crop markets of Mauritania (Nouakchott) and production compared to 2012. During Mali (Bamako) recorded fairly stable 2013, damaging floods affected nine prices for wheat and rice during 2013, i) West Africa countries and impacted the livelihoods reflecting the adequate stock carryovers Countries in the Sahel belt and those in of about 323,000 people. However, the from 2012 despite poor rainfall volumes. the Gulf of Guinea were disparately situation was not as serious as in 2012, In Burkina Faso (Ouagadougou) howe- affected by rainfall patterns during the when floods hit 13 countries and ver, prices of sorghum increased by 7.1 2013 growing seasons. In comparison affected 1.5 million people. percent between January and Decem- to 2012, reduced crop production was expected in the Sahel countries ber 2013, partly as a result of reduced During 2013, cereal prices remained production. Chart 4. Cereal Prices in Selected West AfricanCountries A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k Charts 4 to 7 are based on FAO data (http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool/). Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013. 6 Benin, Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal 7 Based on OCHA Rainy Season Review 2013: West and Central Africa. accessible at http://www.reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Rains%20Report%202013%20FINAL%2011092013.pdf; the 13 countries affected in 2012 were: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, Chad, The Gambia, Ghana, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo 4 5 4 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Chief Economist Complex Complex In the Gulf of Guinea markets, the price ced conflict in the subregion, and im- in Sudan (Khartoum) rose by 23.8 of white maize declined slightly by 1.8 percent in Togo (Lomé) between January proved macroeconomic conditions8. Ho- percent between January and August, wever, the late start to the June–Sep- but fell by 6.4 percent between August and November 2013. In the Kano market tember rains in parts of the subregion and December. The significant price of Nigeria, the wholesale price of maize threatened crop production prospects. increases in the first half of the year increased by 28.0 percent in the first Specifically, some “grain basket” re- were due to poor rains and below- half of the year due to reduced 2012 gions in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea re- average supplies. However, prices plummeted ceived precipitation levels 20-50 per- shortages. In Somalia (Mogadishu) by 43.6 percent between June and Oc- cent below average. Further, there was prices of red sorghum fluctuated within tober as increased supplies from 2013 the narrow range of USD 0.24 per kg harvests came on stream, before re- a delayed start to the October-December rains in Southern Somalia, eastern bounding in November, when they rose Kenya, and northern Tanzania, which through to September before peaking by 22.6 percent (see Chart 4). Notably, meant that the East African subregion at USD 0.38 per kg in October and then despite a 30.9 percent period average as a whole experienced normal to be- falling back to USD 0.25 per kg in decline in prices from January through low-normal rains. November. Wholesale prices for maize in Uganda (Kampala) and Rwanda were still above their 2012 levels.bove The 2013 overall crop production (Kigali) reduced by 9.1 percent and 7.7 their counterpart levels in 2012. outlook for the East African subregion percent respectively between January is forecast to be about 6 percent below and November 2013, but were still ii) East Africa 2012 levels, largely because of poor above their 2012 levels. As maize rains9. to November, the prevailing 2013 prices harvests, which caused and USD 0.27 per kg from January Consequently, despite some stocks from the reduced first season There was a marked improvement in volatility, there was a general upward the food security situation in East Africa trend in the price of most cereals from harvest were being depleted, prices increased by 9.1 percent in Rwanda during the second half of 2013 compa- January to October, although some between August and November, and by red to the first six months. This was at- cereal prices fell steeply in the last tributable to normalized harvests, redu- quarter (see Chart 5). Sorghum prices 21.4 percent between June and August in Uganda. A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k 8 Famine and Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) East Africa Food Security Outlook October 2013-March 2014 [available online] http://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan-republic/east-africa-food-security-outlook-october-2013-march-2014 9 Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013. 5 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Complex Chief Economist Complex Charte 5. Cereal Prices for selected countries in East Africa In Kenya (Nairobi) maize prices were was due to the reduced outputs in the strong throughout the period, recording major cereal-producing countries of 2013 remained higher than in 2012. a 14.3 percent increase from January- South Africa, Zambia, and Madagascar, Chart 6 shows that almost all monitored December 2013 because of lower yields as well as drought conditions in the cereal prices in the subregion increased in the surplus-producing areas of the Rift western parts. This general contraction from January to October 2013, with the Valley, due to below-average rains and in cereal output increased the total import exception of South African wheat, which increasing fuel costs10. Prices of wheat requirements of the subregion by 12.0 registered a decline. The largest price in Ethiopia (Addis Ababa) reached percent, compared to 2012. The less- volatilities were observed in Zimbabwe almost record levels as there was than-average precipitation levels at the (Harare) maize, where prices increasing sustained month-on-month increase of start of the 2013/2014 growing season by 37.9 percent between January and 22.2 percent between January and in October delayed land preparation and October. This resulted from reduced November 2013. Apart from the below- planting in most parts of southern Africa. production and restricted imports from average harvests in the secondary However, rainfall is projected to improve neighbouring season which concluded in August, to above-normal levels in the first quarter imposed a maize export ban12. The increased fuel prices caused by the of 2014, which should ensure food se- removal of government subsidies also curity in most of the subregion, except southern and western regions of Zimbabwe were hit the hardest and contributed to this upward momentum. for a few isolated pockets that have ex- experienced deteriorating food security perienced below-average 2012/2013 outcomes13. harvests11. Furthermore, the role of in- expansion in the food and cash tra-regional trade (formal and informal) assistance programs, food insecurity in has helped to stabilize grain supplies in these regions of Zimbabwe is expected B a n kstaple food deficit nations, although to improve in the first quarter of 2014. iii) Southern Africa Southern Africa’s total aggregate cereal A f about r i c a output during the year 2013 was 5.0 percent below the 2012 level. This n D e v e l o p m e n t Zambia, With the prices in the subregion as a whole during Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013 Famine and Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) Southern Africa Food Security Outlook October 2013-March 2014. Downloadable at http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/SAR_%20FSO_2013_11.pdf 12 Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013. 13 Stressed (IPC phase 2) and Crisis(IPC phase 3) food security outcomes 10 11 6 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k which had anticipated brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Chief Economist Complex Complex In Zambia, prices of maize increased by 11.1 percent from maize. In Mozambique’s Maputo market, the price of rice January to November 2013 with the biggest increase (7.1 remained fairly stable in the narrow range of USD 0.82 to USD percent) recorded between August and November. In fact, 0.84 per kg during the entire period, mainly due to production these prices would have been much higher had the gains in 2013aided by favourable weather conditions. Government not instituted some restrictions on the export of Chart 6. Cereal Prices for selected countries in Southern Africa With the erratic rains and locust plagues that hit Madagascar in 2013, domestic the 2013 growing seasons which favo- price response was disparately affected red crop production, leading to an esti- in different areas, depending on whether rice production declined by about 21.0 mated 6 percent increase compared to an area was in a state of conflict. Prices percent below 2012 levels and the 2012. The Central African Republic was of maize in conflict areas like Lubum- deficit was compensated by higher the only exception, where below-ave- bashi reduced by 10.9 percent between imports. The high demand for rice rage harvests in the northern and central January and November (see Chart 7) during the January-November period parts of the country were anticipated but were still about 60.0 percent higher increased prices of imported rice by 5.2 because of the late onset of rains and than the prices prevailing in non-conflict percent and a marginal increase of 1.7 the disruption in the availability of agri- areas like Kisangani, Bandundu, Boma, percent was recorded between August cultural inputs such as seed and farming and Mbandaka14. Between August and and November. iv) Central Africa A f r i c a n tools due to political disturbances. In November however, prices of maize in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ge- Lubumbashi increased by 22.5 percent, neral downward pressure on coarse fueled by the renewed violence in the B a n k grain prices (especially maize) was ex- eastern regions of the country. D e v e l o p m e n t Most countries in Central Africa received perienced because of good rains and average to above-average rainfall during harvests in 2013. However, the grain 14 Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013. 7 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Complex Chief Economist Complex Gabon meets much of its domestic creasing by 12.5 percent between August 27.0 percent occurred in the first half of cereal requirements through imports. and September, increasing by 20.4 per- 2013 as a result of the government pla- Despite a good harvest in the main sea- cent in October, and then dropping by cing price caps on about 100 commo- son, the price of rice in Libreville fluctuated 5.9 percent in November. The price of dities, including wheat flour. From August throughout 2013. Between January and wheat, the main staple in Gabon (Libre- to November 2013, prices have declined November, it increased overall by about ville), showed an overall decline (36.0 on a month-to-month basis by 18.3 4.7 percent exhibited significant volatility percent) from January to November percent. between August and November, de- 2013. However, the largest decline of Chart 7. Cereal Prices in selected Central African countries Chad’s cereal production in the maize prices increaed by 26.9 percent 2013/2014 growing season is up by 12 between January and October but re- wheat, is expected to reach record highs in Morocco (7 million tonnes) and Egypt percent compared to thefive-year ave- duced by 8.3 percent between August (9.4 million tonnes). However, decreased rage, though severe localized production and October 2013. wheat production, relative to 2012, was recorded in Algeria (6.0 percent) and in shortfalls are expected in some regions15 because of the late start of the season v) North Africa Tunisia (43.0 percent) on account of in- and poor rainfall distribution16. The price sufficient precipitation in some productive of sorghum in the capital N’djamena Following the favorable weather condi- decreased by 10.2 percent overall bet- tions in most countries of North Africa in ween January and October 2013. Ho- 2013, total aggregate cereal output for North Africa is a net importer of cereals, wever it increased by 7.3 percent bet- the year is estimated at about 39.5 ween August and October 2013 as the million tonnes, which is about 10.0 per- regardless of bumper harvests in any given year. Egypt and Morocco import stocks were depleted pending harvests cent above 2012 production levels. Pro- about 45.0 percent of their domestic coming to market. In the market of Bol, D e v e l o p m e n t duction of the subregion’s main staple, cereal requirements from international A f r i c a n 15 16 17 B a n k regions17. Kanem, Wadi-Fira, Barh-El Ghazel, and Hajer Lamis Fewsnet West Africa Food Security outlook October 2013- March 2014 Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013. 8 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Chief Economist Complex Complex markets, while Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya tember unfolded, most households in people in "stress" who mainly relied on have much higher import ratios of 65.0 the subregion continued to face mode- livelihood support. percent, 68.0 percent, and 90.0 percent rate food insecurity and were able to respectively. Of all the countries in the subregion, Morocco is the only country meet even non-food needs from the In localized parts of Somalia, South sale of cash crops and from selling their Sudan, Sudan, and Ethiopia, severe and to record a decrease (of 22.0 percent) labor. It remained difficult to access emergency or crisis level food security in its cereal imports compared to the grain for poor households, particularly in outcomes were likely to persist through previous year, thanks to good harvests the agro-pastoral areas of eastern Niger, March 2014 because of below normal in 2013. northern Nigeria, and northern Mali. rains, limited access to humanitarian Looking ahead, most households in the assistance, and impacts of conflict Food inflation rates in the subregion de- Sahel are expected to deplete their food among other factors. clined in the second half of 2013, reflec- stocks because of the severe produc- ting falling prices of meat, vegetables, tion shortfalls largely attributed to the and fruit. Annual food inflation rates in Algeria averaged 1.8 percent in the last late onset of rains. The food security Tanzania, food insecurity is expected to outlook of the subregion during the first abate as food prices begin to fall. The In South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, and half of 2013, compared to the much hi- quarter of 2014 will be primarily threate- formalized agreement between Sudan gher level in June of 5.9 percent. Morocco’s annual food inflation rate declined ned by below-average harvests in and South Sudan should improve rela- Nigeria and possible escalation (and tions between the two countries, which to about 1.8 percent between August spread) of conflicts in parts of Niger, is expected to improve food security in and November 2013, down from 3.2 Chad, and Mali20. some areas. For example, through this percent in June. Food and beverage inflation rates in Egypt, at 14.0 percent, agreement South Sudanese households ii) East Africa may expect to gain better access to remain high despite a 1.0percent decline labor opportunities in Sudan; specifi- in August and September, following low As of September 2013, the estimated cally, Sudanese Messerisya pastoralists demand after the month of Ramadan. Tunisia’s food inflation has been stable number of people across the subregion may gain better access to grazing ran- facing stressed, severe and critical levels gelands in South Sudan. Moreover, at about 8.0 percent since July18. of food insecurity was 11.1 million, opportunities should open up as the two down by about 14 percent from June countries continue to equitably share oil 2013. Significant improvements were revenues22. However, food security in observed in many parts of Somalia, the first quarter of 2014 in the subregion 2.3. Food security trends in Africa’s subregions South Sudan, Sudan, and Ethiopia may be threatened by a number of risk By mid-2013, most countries in the partly attributed to incresed access to factors, some man-made and some subregion were experiencing moderate humanitarian assistance , which conti- weather-related. For example, food or mild food insecurity. Exceptions were nued to the end of the year. In Somalia security may be endangered if the Sep- those areas affected by civil insecurity for instance, the UN's Food Security tember agreements between Sudan and 21 and unrest, namely northern Mali and and Nutrition Analysis Unit’s assessment South Sudan are not implemented; or if northeastern Nigeria; which were in of January 2014 showed that the num- there are delays or cancelations in plan- more severe food insecurity19. As the ber of Somalis in crisis had reduced to ned humanitarian assistance; or if there harvest season between July and Sep- 870,000, but there were still 2.3 million are below-average October-December A f r i c a n 18 19 20 21 22 D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 3, October 2013. FEWSNET West Africa Food Security Outlook Update April-September 2013. FEWSNET West Africa Food Security Outlook Update October 2013-March 2014. FEWSNET East Africa Food Security Outlook October 2013-March 2014 FEWSNET East Africa Food Security Outlook October 2013-March 2014 9 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Complex Chief Economist Complex precipitation levels. The situation is • An increase in grain staples in Zambia insecurity, and this was forecast to conti- expected to be further exacerbated and South Africa to levels well above nue until March 2014. In the northern should the on-going conflict that started average; and and central areas of the country however, in mid-December 2013 in South Sudan persist. iii) Southern Africa Against the backdrop of a reduced 2013 • Inadequate and delayed input supply the effects of the heightened civil unrest in Zambia, especially from the go- left many households in stressful food vernment’s input support programs, security situations and this was expected which target poor farmers. to continue into the first quarter of 201424. iv) Central Africa v) North Africa crop harvests relative to 2012, most countries in the subregion experienced Throughout 2013, the Central African The North African subregion experienced moderate food insecurity throughout the Republic and the Democratic Republic good grain harvests throughout 2013 calendar year 2013. However, parts of of Congo experienced serious food in- and this, together the continuation of southern Malawi, semi-arid districts of security situations because of the conti- generous food subsidies in a number of southern and central Mozambique, parts nued civil unrest. Apart from disrupting countries, kept food inflation levels at of the southern provinces of Zimbabwe, agricultural activities and humanitarian fairly low levels, except in Egypt. This and most parts of Lesotho continued to interventions, civil unrest restricted the meant that most households in the su- experience acute food insecurity throu- access of poor households to food. bregion were able to meet their food ghout 2013. FEWS NET anticipates that About 1.2 million people in the Central needs. Egypt proved an exception be- the subregion’s food security outlook African Republic and 6.35 million in the cause the civil unrest in the country will remain largely secure through the Democratic Republic of Congo were ex- fueled double-digit inflation and also ero- first quarter of 2014. At the peak of the periencing acute food insecurity out- ded the country’s foreign exchange re- lean season (January–February 2014), comes by June 2013 . The civil unrest serves, which made the importation of the reduced funding for humanitarian resulted in an estimated 2.7 million and wheat expensive. Consequently, the po- assistance in the subregion will put 395,000 internally displaced persons in pulation was subjected to substantial 23 further pressure on poor and very poor the Democratic Republic of Congo and food price hikes and deteriorating food households in parts of Malawi and Zim- Central African Republic, respectively, security outcomes. The widespread bud- babwe, worsening the situation to acute by September 2013. getary constraints existing in the subregion is forcing governments to examine levels. The southern and western regions of Zimbabwe were hit the hardest and Food security outcomes in these two whether they can afford to maintain experienced rather stressful food inse- countries were experienced disparately substantial food subsidies. However, the curity levels. by populations according to whether or alternative of popular mass demonstra- not they lived in areas directly affected tions, as witnessed in Egypt in the late Other than reduced humanitarian assis- by conflict. As the harvests came to 1970s, is deterring governments from tance, other threats to food security in markets in the second half of 2013, the abandoning the food subsidy program first quarter of 2014 include: southern and western regions of the altogether, although it is coming under Central African Republic showed impro- closer scrutiny25. • Possible restrictions on cross-border in these areas experiencing mild food trade; A f r i c a n 23 24 25 ved food security, with most households D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 2, June 2013. http://www.fews.net/west-africa/central-african-republic See, http://thecairopost.com/news/102940/news/supply-minister-announces-new-food-subsidy-system 10 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Section Chief Economist Chief Economist Complex Complex Climate change and food security in Africa 3 3.1. Global significance of climate change 2050 due to the combined impact of cli- that killed over a quarter of a million mate change, land degradation, and wa- people – and itwas partly caused by cli- ter scarcity. At the same time, the global mate change29. Global challenges in the 21st Century population is projected to increase from have reached unprecedented levels of the current 7 billion to about 9.5 billion Richard Munang30 has observed that complexity and magnitude. Chief among people by 205027. “current systems of production will only be able to meet 13.0 percent of the them are food insecurity, malnutrition, climate change, poverty and social exclusion, ill health, and environmental de- 3.2. gradation. Addressing these challenges will require urgent, innovative, and lasting Climate change impacts and food security prospects in Africa Of particular interest is the phenomenon three out of every four people added to the planet between now and 2100 will be born in the region. In the coming half century, the land we grow our food solutions underpinned by the concerted efforts on the part of the global community. continent's food needs by 2050, while According to Aly Abou-Sabaa28, “Africa on will change. This will make feeding needs to change its development tra- the world's growing population a com- jectory in order to win its fight against plicated task. Higher temperatures of significant and lasting change in the both poverty and climate change.” This could cause total farm yields to drop distribution of weather patterns (tempe- statement echoes the general view that by 15-20 percent across all African re- rature, water cycle, precipitation, global Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate gions. All at once, the 65 percent of the currents, etc. and the effects on the bios- change threats because both supply- African workforce who directly depend phere), commonly known as “climate side and demand-side challenges are on agriculture as their life blood will be- change.” The analyses being undertaken putting additional pressure on an al- come the most threatened by climate by climatologists worldwide span pe- ready fragile food production system. change and affected food patterns.” of years. According to the United States The fragility of Africa’s food production Global circulation models (GCMs) tend National Research Council, “there is a system has already been raised in Sec- to provide statistical predictions or pro- riods ranging from decades to millions strong, credible body of evidence, based tion 2, which highlighted the causative jections of climate change and its on multiple lines of research, documen- inter-linkages between a number of influence on food production, but these ting that climate is changing and that food insecurity incidences in African’s frequently disagree in the magnitude of these changes are in large part caused subregions and climatic change in- their projections. This is usually on by human activities .” In turn, climate fluences. For example, severe droughts account of the wide-ranging differences 26 change threatens most facets of human and floods in East Africa have increased in the underlying data used, variables social, economic, and demographic life. in frequency in recent years, occurring and forecast methods chosen, and The United Nations Environmental Pro- in 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2011. The modeling assumptions made (including gram projects that up to one quarter of 2011 drought affected over 13 million the time horizon for the projections). people and led to a famine in Somalia However, there is general agreement global food production could be lost by A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k National Research Council (2010) “America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change”; Washington, D.C.: Copyright © National Academy of Sciences; the National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14588-0; also accessible at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12782 27 See more at: http://www.climatecommunication.org/affects/food-production/#!prettyPhoto/0/ 28 Aly Abou-Sabaa is the Vice President of AfDB’s Sector Operation, in charge of Governance, Agriculture and Human Development. 29 OXFAM (2013) “Growing Disruption: Climate change, food, and the fight against hunger”, OXFAM Issue Briefing, September 30 Richard Munang “How Africa can feed itself in the face of climate change” Opinion: Aljazeera(http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/09/how-africaan-feed); Richard Munang is Africa Regional Climate Change Head & Coordinator at the United Nations Environment Programme (3 October 2013) 26 11 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Complex Chief Economist Complex about the direction of the impacts. A will potentially experience the most percent. With higher levels of warming, few examples provide insights about severe impacts of climate change. countries in sub-Saharan Africa could the key expected impacts of climate Some of the positive and negative experience catastrophic declines in change on food production. impacts of climate change in Africa yield of 20-30 percent by 2080. would include: Liliana Hisas (2011)31 analyzed the combined population growth, food production, nutrition and undernourishment The Climate Communication33 Group • About two-thirds of arable land in made similar observations. Its analysis Africa predicted to be lost by 2025; showed that food production is projec- also ted to decline in tropical regions as change, assessed the impacts of climate impact yields from rain-fed agricul- rising temperatures decrease crop change on food production. She posited ture, with estimations of up to 50 yields. Drought-prone areas of Africa that the temperature of the planet would percent less in some countries; are particularly vulnerable to food shor- increase by at least 2.4oC above pre- • On the plus side, the combination of tages due to a reduction in the land industrial times, largely on account of increased temperature and rainfall area suitable for agriculture. Agricultural and linking these variables to climate • Decreased rainfall would mad-made carbon dioxide (greenhouse changes would lengthen the gro- losses could be severe in the Sahel, gas) emissions. Two of the three main wing season potentially benefiting, East Africa, and Southern Africa. In elements of food production – water for example, the production of some North African countries, rain-fed (mainly in the form of rain, on which 80 Ethiopian coffee. crop yields could decline by as much percent of food production depends) as 50 percent in extreme years by and climate – would be most affected Referencing other studies, a report by 2020. Degradation of coral reefs and by climate change. The most significant OXFAM (2013)32 observed that in the mangroves, as well as rising lake tem- impacts of climate change on food pro- tropics and sub-tropics in general, crop peratures and overfishing, can be duction would be on tropical regions yields may decrease by 10-20 percent expected to decrease fish supplies in due to reduced water availability and by 2050 because of climate change, Africa. Regional declines in agricultural increased temperatures, and on tem- and there are places where yield losses productivity due to climate change are perate regions due to changes in pre- may be even more severe. Even with forecast to be in the range of 15-50 cipitation. global warming of less than 2oC by the percent in most African countries by 2050s, total crop production in sub- 2080 (Figure 1). Hisas projected that the African region Saharan Africa could be reduced by 10 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k Liliana Hisas (2011) “The Impacts of Climate Change on Food Production: A 2020 Perspective”. The Food Gap,Universal Ecological Fund (Fundación Ecológica Universal FEU-US), February 32 OXFAM (2013) “Growing Disruption: Climate change, food, and the fight against hunger”, OXFAM Issue Briefing, September 33 Climate Communication, http://www.climatecommunication.org/affects/food-production/#!prettyPhoto/0/ (accessed 4 January 2014) 31 12 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Chief Economist Complex Complex Figure 1. Projected changes in agricultural productivity due to climate change, 2080.34 Using a combination of modeling and drought stress (Figure 2). Oxfam commissioned research by the approaches, Ringler et al. (2011) project Institute of Development Studies, which that cereal production growth for a Ringler et al. assert that world prices are explored a range of food price scenarios range of crops in Sub-Saharan Africa a key indicator of the effects of climate for 2030, using international trade will decline by a net 3.2 percent in 2050 change on agriculture and, even more models. This found that, in the absence as a result of climate change . The lar- importantly, on food affordability and of urgent and aggressive action to tackle gest are security. Food prices increase for all sta- global warming, the average price of projected for wheat—of which the ple crops because climate change acts staple foods could more than double in 35 negative yield impacts region grows very little—followed by as an additional stressor on the already the next 20 years compared with 2010 sweet potatoes. Overall, millet and sor- tightening price outlook. Under worse- trend prices (Figure 3)36 – with up to half ghum yields are projected to be slightly ning climate change, it is projected that of the increase caused by climate higher under climate change, given their maize, rice, and wheat prices will be 4, change (changing mean temperatures higher tolerance to higher temperatures 7, and 15 percent higher by 2050. and rainfall patterns). A f r i c a n 34 35 36 D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k Source: http://www.climatecommunication.org/affects/food-production/#!prettyPhoto/0/ In the modeling, increased area expansion of 2.1 percent partially compensates for an overall yield growth decline of 4.6 percent. OXFAM (2013), “Growing Disruption: Climate change, food, and the fight against hunger,” OXFAM Issue Briefing, September 13 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Complex Chief Economist Complex Figure 2. Projected changes in Sub-Saharan African crop yields due to climate change, 205037 Figure 3. Predicted impact of climate change on world market food export prices to 203037 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k Source: Claudia Ringler, Tingju Zhu, Ximing Cai, Jawoo Koo, and Dingbao Wang (2011) “Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Comprehensive Climate Change Modeling,” International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Policy Brief, pp.15-20. 37 14 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Chief Economist Complex Complex These stark statistics present a salutary regional coalition for pooling resources Parties (COP12), held in Nairobi in reminder that climate change is exer- and power among African states and 2006, saw African states begin to take ting fundamental adverse impacts on seeks to advance common African a more proactive role in agenda setting African food production and the food interests on the issues of climate for the COP. In February 2009, security change. COMESA made the first proposal for an situation. As opined by Munang , if nothing is done, millions of African Position on Climate Change, 38 people in Africa will experience severe Over the past twenty years, the Group which was to the UNFCCC. This was food insecurity, potentially fueling food has played the part of a relatively minor formulated ahead of COP15, which riots as was the case in 2007-2008, coalition, compared to others such as was held in Copenhagen in December when prices of maize and soybean led the Alliance of Small Island States of the same year. to mass demonstrations in more than (AOSIS), the Organization of Petroleum 30 countries. Furthermore, an unpubli- Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the The African Position led to the inclusion shed U.S. government study indicates G77, which have each significantly sha- of agriculture on the agendas of that the world should prepare for many ped the course of the United Nations COP16 in Cancun in 2010 and COP17 more similar episodes as food prices Framework Convention on Climate in Durban in 2011. In 2013, the AGN spiral and long-standing agricultural Change (UNFCCC) negotiations . The submitted to the UNFCCC the regional practices get disrupted by climate AGN has faced financial, technological, position that “there is need for scientific change. The African continent is expec- informational, and technical capacity knowledge on how to enhance the ted to suffer disproportionately from constraints to addressing and articula- adaptation of agriculture to climate food insecurity, due to the fast growth ting the core issues relating to climate change impacts while promoting rural of populations vulnerable to climate change. These constraints also limited development, sustainable development change. its ability to negotiate effectively for and productivity of agricultural systems Africa’s common position on climate and 3.3. The African response to climate change 39 food security.” ThisPosition change; a concept that was also poorly acknowledges that the priority for framed at the time. As a result, the agriculture in Africa is to ensure food Group initially attracted scant attention security, the eradication of poverty and The African Group of Negotiators (AGN) from policy-makers and development improvements in has emerged as the main regional body practitioners involved in global climate development and socio-economic environmental spearheading activities in the global cli- change negotiations and consequently, sustainability. It is in this regard that the mate the AGN had only a limited impact on African Position seeks to foster food inception at the Rio Earth Summit in the global climate change agenda. security through actions to improve the 1992. The Group represents the most In the recent past however, the AGN productivity, adaptive capacity and comprehensive African initiative on cli- has enhanced its capacities and grown climate change resilience of agricultural mate change. It has operated as a in stature. The twelfth Conference of activities. change debate since their A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k 38 OXFAM (2013) “Growing Disruption: Climate change, food, and the fight against hunger”, OXFAM Issue Briefing, September Richard Munang, “How Africa can feed itself in the face of climate change” Opinion: Aljazeera(http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/09/how-africa-can-feed); Richard Munang is Africa Regional Climate Change Head & Coordinator at the United Nations Environment Programme (3 October 2013) 39 COMESA-EAC-SADC Climate Change Program (2013) “African Position on Climate Change.” August. 15 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Complex Chief Economist Complex In order to monitor and analyze the and that in order to mitigate its effects Nations in September 2010. food security situation and that of sustainable agriculture more generally, what There is clearly a growing level of is needed is agricultural adaptation to climate change. Going it is vital to have good quality data, well- African participation in the issues of forward, among other things, this will trained statistical staff and robust IT climate mean the following: change and sustainable systems and networks in place. It soon agriculture, as these issues become became evident that there was a better understood by African policy- • Harnessing knowledge about the paucity of agricultural data, particularly makers and development practitioners. causes and consequences of cli- in the African region. There was Although poor financial, technological mate change and using it more therefore a pressing need to scale up and technical resources as well as effectively to influence national, the capacity of states to collect, limited access to good information have regional, and international decision- monitor, the played a limiting role in the past; these making and economic and social information demanded by national and are increasingly being addressed by practices; and disseminate regional policymakers, as well as by international community and regional • Fostering the right (knowledge- international development organizations organizations. In view of the significant based) climate choices that limit the in order to address challenges such as and growing scale and complexity of magnitude of future climate change, food climate change issues, much remains and promote economic (food pro- to be done in order to ensure that the duction and other agricultural), adverse effects of climate change on human and environmental adapta- food security are mitigated. Without tions insecurity. This led to the formulation of the Action Plan to Improve Statistics for Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture, and Rural to the current climatic Development in Africa, which was such efforts, not only will poverty and finalized and published by the AfDB in malnutrition increase but there will be a • For Africa – as the region likely to May 2011 in collaboration with the mass migration of populations seeking most severely affected by climate ECA, AUC, and FAO . Implementation simply to survive. 40 circumstance; and change –it also means establishing of the Action Plan is now well underway and the AfDB publishes regular updates a “bigger global voice and pre- 3.4. Way forward sence.” Not only will this demand on the status of implementation. The the mobilization and mainstreaming Action Plan for Africa forms part of the The discussion so far has amply of climate change financing at all wider Global Strategy endorsed by the demonstrated that climate change will levels, but also the mobilization of international community, which was require effective strategic responses prominent and like-minded climate jointly published by the Food and both globally and in Africa. Most change champions as advocates Agriculture Organization (FAO), the experts agree that climate change has within and outside the continent. World Bank/IBRD, and the United progressed too far to be halted entirely A f r i c a n 40 D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k The full text of the Action Plan for Africa can be accessed via the web address: www.afdb.org/en/knowledge/publications 16 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Section Chief Economist Chief Economist Complex Complex Conclusion 4 Founded on the premise that food kets would become more balanced translated into an overall increase in security is a developmental imperative and less price volatile in 2013 relative production compared to 2012 and in Africa, this Africa Food Security Brief to previous years. Amongst the cereal general price declines (although some has presented the latest data on global crops, wheat prices continued to be noteworthy upswings were also obser- and African food prices, as well as food highly sensitive to weather-related fac- ved in the Central African Republic). In availability, related factors and trends tors that could affect harvest yields. North Africa, food inflation rates decli- for the period July to December 2013. Whereas import demand for wheat ned during most of the second half of This fifth issue of the Brief focused on was strong and resilient, export capa- 2013, mainly due to falling prices of climate change as the special thematic city was only just sufficient to meet meat, vegetables, and fruit. area. demand. For coarse grains, stocks of the crop were comfortably high inter- Regarding food security trends in In terms of international food price nationally, which kept the lid on global Africa’s subregions, a varied picture trends overall, a general downward wheat prices. The expectation was that trend in the global food price index (FPI) even if trade were to expand, adequate was observed throughout 2013. The stocks would be available to sustain emerged during the period January– December 2013. In the Sahel and West African subregions, by July 2013, only exceptions were some upward robust exports and keep prices down. most countries were experiencing minimal food insecurity, save for areas reversals in the index observed in March, April, and October. The main Across the five African subregions, drivers of the general decline in the food prices generally showed wide affected by civil insecurity. In East Africa, as of September 2013, the esti- index included falling international variations. The variations were under- mated cereal prices and higher than expected pinned things, stressed, crisis, and emergency levels supplies of cereal throughout the year. contrasting socio-political conditions of food insecurity had declined by and weather patterns in different about 14 percent compared to 2012. In Southern Africa, despite reduced Global prices were generally volatile in by, among other the second half of 2013. Although this subregions and countries therein. In West Africa, cereal prices remained number of people facing 2013 crop harvests relative to 2012, continued to pose a threat to food fairly stable in most Sahelian countries most countries experienced minimal security, particularly in conflict-ridden but declined in most of the Gulf of Gui- food insecurity throughout 2013. In areas, the level of volatility reduced in nea countries in the first season of 2013 compared to the past few years. 2013, mainly due to the combined relation to Central Africa, during 2013, the Central African Republic and the This was mainly on account of the influence of adequate inventories from Democratic Republic of Congo expe- improved food supplies and the reco- 2012 and good harvests in 2013.In East Africa, there was a general rienced serious food security situations very in global inventories of cereal. because of the continued civil unrest. upward trend for most selected cereal Finally, because the North African prices, throughout 2013. However, in subregion experienced good grain har- composites of the FPI suggest that the Southern Africa, all monitored cereal vests throughout 2013 and continued significant price changes between D e v e l o p m e n t prices increased between January and to enjoy generous government food January and December 2013 were dri- October 2013 with the exception of subsidies in a number of countries, A disaggregated view of the major A f r i c a n B a n k ven mainly by price fluctuations in dairy wheat in South Africa, which declined. food inflation levels were kept at a rea- products, cereal products, and sugar. In Central Africa, most countries recei- sonable level(except in Egypt), allowing Forecasts for international food prices ved average to above-average rainfall most households in the subregion to by the FOA indicated that food mar- during the 2013 growing seasons. This meet their food needs. 17 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Food Food Security Africa Security Chief Economist Complex Chief Economist Complex This Brief observes that global chal- nent’s total food needs. The stark pro- cial, technological and technical lenges in the 21st Century have jections essentially emphasized that resources as well as limited access to reached unprecedented magnitudes climate change is exerting fundamen- good information continue to play a and levels of complexity, with food tal adverse impacts on African food limiting role; albeit to a declining insecurity, production and the food security situa- extent. malnutrition, climate change, poverty, ill health, and envi- tion. ronmental degradation topping the list. The focus of this issue has been on cli- Going forward, it is anticipated that At the continental level, the African coping with climate change will require mate change, as it critically threatens Group of Negotiators (AGN) has been effective strategic responses globally most facets of social, economic, and the main response to articulate Africa’s and in Africa, to help mitigate its demographic life. The fragility of position and to help contribute to the effects and at the same time encou- Africa’s food production system has climate change agenda. The AGN has rage agricultural adaptation through been well illustrated, highlighting a spearheaded activities in the global cli- various means. This could be done number of food insecurity incidences mate its through, among other things, harnes- in Africa’s subregions that are inextri- inception at the Rio Earth Summit in sing knowledge about the causes and cably change 1992. The Group represents the most consequences of climate change, fos- influences and stresses. Examples comprehensive African initiative on cli- tering were given of droughts in East Africa, mate change. It has operated as a choices which increased in frequency, with regional coalition for pooling resources human and environmental adapta- recorded occurrences in 2005, 2006, and power among African states and tions, and by establishing a “bigger 2008, and 2011. Projections were also seeks to advance common African global voice and presence” for Africa linked to climatic change debate since knowledge-based that promote climate economic, provided of the limited expect to which interests on the issues of climate by scaling up climate change financing current systems of food production change. Despite some successes by and galvanizing climate change cham- could be expected to meet the conti- the AGN, the constraints of poor finan- pions within and outside the continent. A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k 18 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k brief brief AfDB AfDB Africa Security Africa Food Food Security Economist ChiefChief Economist ComplexComplex A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k 19 A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k AfDB©2014. Statistical Capacity Building Division Statistics Department Temporary Relocation Agency BP 323, 1002 Tunis, Belvédère Tunisia Tel.: (216) 71 10 36 54 Fax: (216) 71 10 37 43 E-mail: [email protected]; Website: www.afdb.org Production by AfDB | 11