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Africa Food Security
Statistics Department
Issue N° 5, April 2014
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Contents
Africa Food Security Brief
Special focus on climate change Impacts
Introduction
1
1. Introduction
2.1. International food price
trends
2.2. Food prices in African
subregions
2.3. Food security trends in
Africa’s subregions
3. Climate change and food
security in Africa
3.1. Global significance of
climate change
3.2. Climate change impacts
and food security
prospects in Africa
3.3. The African response to
climate change
3.4. Way forward
4. Conclusion
Mthuli Ncube
Chief Economist and Vice President
Office of the Chief Economist
[email protected]
+216 7110. 2062
Charles Leyeka Lufumpa
Director
Statistics Department
[email protected]
+216 7110 2175
Steve Kayizzi Mugerwa
Director
Development Research Department
[email protected]
+216 7110 2064
Victor Murinde
Director
Africa Development Institute
[email protected]
+216 7110 2072
The developmental and poverty-reduction
the Brief does not limit itself to this period
imperatives associated with food security in
alone but also considers other months in
Africa provide the fundamental rationale
the calendar year 2013, based on the
behind the Africa Food Security Brief. The
availability of data at the time of finalizing the
Brief monitors food prices and food
Brief. This is to ensure as comprehensive an
availability-related factors and trends in the
overview and analysis as possible.
region, as volatilities in these areas in the
short term often signal deteriorating food
The special thematic focus of this fifth issue
security and worsening poverty.
is climate change. This focus was chosen
This fifth issue of the Brief provides an
term climatic changes on short-term food
because of the significant impacts of longupdate of the global and African food price
production, food prices and the food
and food production trends, focusing on the
security situation in Africa and the world at
period July to December 2013. However,
large.
Section
2. Food prices and the food
security situation in Africa
Food prices and the food security situation in Africa
2
2.1.
International food price trends1
January and December 2013 was in the
order of 3.0 percent, though a steeper
The year 2013 witnessed an overall
decrease of 6 percent occurred during May
downward trend in the global Food Price
and September 2013. The main drivers of
Index (FPI) as measured by the FAO2.
this decline were falling international cereal
Nonetheless, some upward reversals were
prices, due primarily to higher than
evident in March, April, and October (Chart
expected supplies of cereal throughout the
1). The overall decline in the FPI between
year.
Prepared by an ESTA.2 Team comprising: Oliver J. M. Chinganya, Manager Statistical Capacity Building
Division; Vincent Ngendakumuna and Caesar Cheelo (Consultants), under the direction of Charles L.
Lufumpa, Director, Statistics Department.
The findings of this Brief reflect the opinions of the authors and not those of the African Development
Bank, its Board of Directors or the countries they represent.
1
Charts 1 to 2 are based on FAO data (http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/). Chart 3 is based on FAO data (http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool/).
2
The FAO’s global Food Price Index (FPI) measures monthly price changes in a basket of food commodities, including meat, dairy, cereals, oils, fats, and sugar
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Global food prices showed some
supplies and the recovery in global
percent increase) and oil (2.0 percent
volatility during the second half of 2013,
inventories of cereal.
decrease) for this period. In the latter
An analysis of the major composites of
December 2013, there were more
1.3 percent in October, a dip of 0.16
the FAO Food Price Index (FPI) in Chart
significant increases in meat prices (3.0
percent in November, prior a marginal
2 shows significant variation in prices
percent), oil prices (8.0 percent) and
recovery of 0.2 percent in December.
between January and December 2013
dairy
The FAO points out though that the
for
percent
decreases observed in sugar (3.0
volatility in food prices in 2013 was
increase), cereal products (22.0 percent
percent) and cereal prices (7.0 percent)
much less than that observed in the
decrease), and sugar (12.0 percent
were largely attributable to the record
past few years3. Mitigation factors
decrease). By contrast, there were only
harvests of corn (maize) in the United
during 2013 were the improved food
marginal changes in meat prices (2.0
States.
with a 0.35 percent decrease between
August and September 2013, a rise of
part of the year, between August and
dairy
products
(26.0
products
(4.0
percent).The
Charte 1. Global Food Price Index (FPI)
Chart 3 monitors trends in international
the year as a whole (January to
cereal prices because of the critical
December), significant price decreases
(28.0 percent) and Australian wheat
impact this commodity group has on
were noted for the following: US maize
(15.0 percent).
the food security situation in Africa. For
No. 2 yellow (35.0 percent), Thailand
A f r i c a n
3
D e v e l o p m e n t
rice (31.0 percent), US Gulf Sorghum
B a n k
http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/204122/icode/ Accessed 18/12/2013
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Charte 2. Global monthly price indices of food commodity groups
Charte 3. International Cereal Prices
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
Between the months of August and December 2013, the
economies for which data were available the decrease in cereal
largest decline was recorded for Thailand rice (18.0 percent),
prices were below 10.0 percent.
followed by US maize (17.0 percent), while for all other
3
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2.2.
Food prices in African
subregions4
because of delayed onset of rains
fairly stable in most Sahelian countries
whereas above-average harvests were
whereas they declined in most countries
forecast in the Gulf of Guinea countries,
in the Gulf of Guinea. Chart 4 below
Food prices across African subregions
due to plentiful rainfall. The resulting net
shows the trend of selected cereal
exhibited wide variations, as detailed
production for the subregion was a
prices in the subregion. The Sahelian
below.
slight increase in aggregate crop
markets of Mauritania (Nouakchott) and
production compared to 2012. During
Mali (Bamako) recorded fairly stable
2013, damaging floods affected nine
prices for wheat and rice during 2013,
i)
West Africa
countries and impacted the livelihoods
reflecting the adequate stock carryovers
Countries in the Sahel belt and those in
of about 323,000 people. However, the
from 2012 despite poor rainfall volumes.
the Gulf of Guinea were disparately
situation was not as serious as in 2012,
In Burkina Faso (Ouagadougou) howe-
affected by rainfall patterns during the
when floods hit 13 countries and
ver, prices of sorghum increased by 7.1
2013 growing seasons. In comparison
affected 1.5 million people.
percent between January and Decem-
to 2012, reduced crop production was
expected
in
the
Sahel
countries
ber 2013, partly as a result of reduced
During 2013, cereal prices remained
production.
Chart 4. Cereal Prices in Selected West AfricanCountries
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
Charts 4 to 7 are based on FAO data (http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool/).
Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013.
6
Benin, Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal
7
Based on OCHA Rainy Season Review 2013: West and Central Africa. accessible at
http://www.reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Rains%20Report%202013%20FINAL%2011092013.pdf; the 13 countries affected in 2012
were: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, Chad, The Gambia, Ghana, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo
4
5
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In the Gulf of Guinea markets, the price
ced conflict in the subregion, and im-
in Sudan (Khartoum) rose by 23.8
of white maize declined slightly by 1.8
percent in Togo (Lomé) between January
proved macroeconomic conditions8. Ho-
percent between January and August,
wever, the late start to the June–Sep-
but fell by 6.4 percent between August
and November 2013. In the Kano market
tember rains in parts of the subregion
and December. The significant price
of Nigeria, the wholesale price of maize
threatened crop production prospects.
increases in the first half of the year
increased by 28.0 percent in the first
Specifically, some “grain basket” re-
were due to poor rains and below-
half of the year due to reduced 2012
gions in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea re-
average
supplies. However, prices plummeted
ceived precipitation levels 20-50 per-
shortages. In Somalia (Mogadishu)
by 43.6 percent between June and Oc-
cent below average. Further, there was
prices of red sorghum fluctuated within
tober as increased supplies from 2013
the narrow range of USD 0.24 per kg
harvests came on stream, before re-
a delayed start to the October-December rains in Southern Somalia, eastern
bounding in November, when they rose
Kenya, and northern Tanzania, which
through to September before peaking
by 22.6 percent (see Chart 4). Notably,
meant that the East African subregion
at USD 0.38 per kg in October and then
despite a 30.9 percent period average
as a whole experienced normal to be-
falling back to USD 0.25 per kg in
decline in prices from January through
low-normal rains.
November. Wholesale prices for maize
in Uganda (Kampala) and Rwanda
were still above their 2012 levels.bove
The 2013 overall crop production
(Kigali) reduced by 9.1 percent and 7.7
their counterpart levels in 2012.
outlook for the East African subregion
percent respectively between January
is forecast to be about 6 percent below
and November 2013, but were still
ii) East Africa
2012 levels, largely because of poor
above their 2012 levels. As maize
rains9.
to November, the prevailing 2013 prices
harvests,
which
caused
and USD 0.27 per kg from January
Consequently, despite some
stocks from the reduced first season
There was a marked improvement in
volatility, there was a general upward
the food security situation in East Africa
trend in the price of most cereals from
harvest were being depleted, prices
increased by 9.1 percent in Rwanda
during the second half of 2013 compa-
January to October, although some
between August and November, and by
red to the first six months. This was at-
cereal prices fell steeply in the last
tributable to normalized harvests, redu-
quarter (see Chart 5). Sorghum prices
21.4 percent between June and August
in Uganda.
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
8
Famine and Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) East Africa Food Security Outlook October 2013-March 2014 [available online] http://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan-republic/east-africa-food-security-outlook-october-2013-march-2014
9
Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013.
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Charte 5. Cereal Prices for selected countries in East Africa
In Kenya (Nairobi) maize prices were
was due to the reduced outputs in the
strong throughout the period, recording
major cereal-producing countries of
2013 remained higher than in 2012.
a 14.3 percent increase from January-
South Africa, Zambia, and Madagascar,
Chart 6 shows that almost all monitored
December 2013 because of lower yields
as well as drought conditions in the
cereal prices in the subregion increased
in the surplus-producing areas of the Rift
western parts. This general contraction
from January to October 2013, with the
Valley, due to below-average rains and
in cereal output increased the total import
exception of South African wheat, which
increasing fuel costs10. Prices of wheat
requirements of the subregion by 12.0
registered a decline. The largest price
in Ethiopia (Addis Ababa) reached
percent, compared to 2012. The less-
volatilities were observed in Zimbabwe
almost record levels as there was
than-average precipitation levels at the
(Harare) maize, where prices increasing
sustained month-on-month increase of
start of the 2013/2014 growing season
by 37.9 percent between January and
22.2 percent between January and
in October delayed land preparation and
October. This resulted from reduced
November 2013. Apart from the below-
planting in most parts of southern Africa.
production and restricted imports from
average harvests in the secondary
However, rainfall is projected to improve
neighbouring
season which concluded in August,
to above-normal levels in the first quarter
imposed a maize export ban12. The
increased fuel prices caused by the
of 2014, which should ensure food se-
removal of government subsidies also
curity in most of the subregion, except
southern and western regions of
Zimbabwe were hit the hardest and
contributed to this upward momentum.
for a few isolated pockets that have ex-
experienced deteriorating food security
perienced below-average 2012/2013
outcomes13.
harvests11. Furthermore, the role of in-
expansion in the food and cash
tra-regional trade (formal and informal)
assistance programs, food insecurity in
has helped to stabilize grain supplies in
these regions of Zimbabwe is expected
B a n kstaple food
deficit nations, although
to improve in the first quarter of 2014.
iii) Southern Africa
Southern Africa’s total aggregate cereal
A f about
r i c a
output during the year 2013 was
5.0 percent below the 2012 level. This
n
D e v e l o p m e n t
Zambia,
With
the
prices in the subregion as a whole during
Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013
Famine and Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) Southern Africa Food Security Outlook October 2013-March 2014. Downloadable at
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/SAR_%20FSO_2013_11.pdf
12
Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013.
13
Stressed (IPC phase 2) and Crisis(IPC phase 3) food security outcomes
10
11
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In Zambia, prices of maize increased by 11.1 percent from
maize. In Mozambique’s Maputo market, the price of rice
January to November 2013 with the biggest increase (7.1
remained fairly stable in the narrow range of USD 0.82 to USD
percent) recorded between August and November. In fact,
0.84 per kg during the entire period, mainly due to production
these prices would have been much higher had the
gains in 2013aided by favourable weather conditions.
Government not instituted some restrictions on the export of
Chart 6. Cereal Prices for selected countries in Southern Africa
With the erratic rains and locust plagues
that hit Madagascar in 2013, domestic
the 2013 growing seasons which favo-
price response was disparately affected
red crop production, leading to an esti-
in different areas, depending on whether
rice production declined by about 21.0
mated 6 percent increase compared to
an area was in a state of conflict. Prices
percent below 2012 levels and the
2012. The Central African Republic was
of maize in conflict areas like Lubum-
deficit was compensated by higher
the only exception, where below-ave-
bashi reduced by 10.9 percent between
imports. The high demand for rice
rage harvests in the northern and central
January and November (see Chart 7)
during the January-November period
parts of the country were anticipated
but were still about 60.0 percent higher
increased prices of imported rice by 5.2
because of the late onset of rains and
than the prices prevailing in non-conflict
percent and a marginal increase of 1.7
the disruption in the availability of agri-
areas like Kisangani, Bandundu, Boma,
percent was recorded between August
cultural inputs such as seed and farming
and Mbandaka14. Between August and
and November.
iv) Central Africa
A f r i c a n
tools due to political disturbances. In
November however, prices of maize in
the Democratic Republic of Congo, ge-
Lubumbashi increased by 22.5 percent,
neral downward pressure on coarse
fueled by the renewed violence in the
B a n k
grain prices (especially
maize) was ex-
eastern regions of the country.
D e v e l o p m e n t
Most countries in Central Africa received
perienced because of good rains and
average to above-average rainfall during
harvests in 2013. However, the grain
14
Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013.
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Gabon meets much of its domestic
creasing by 12.5 percent between August
27.0 percent occurred in the first half of
cereal requirements through imports.
and September, increasing by 20.4 per-
2013 as a result of the government pla-
Despite a good harvest in the main sea-
cent in October, and then dropping by
cing price caps on about 100 commo-
son, the price of rice in Libreville fluctuated
5.9 percent in November. The price of
dities, including wheat flour. From August
throughout 2013. Between January and
wheat, the main staple in Gabon (Libre-
to November 2013, prices have declined
November, it increased overall by about
ville), showed an overall decline (36.0
on a month-to-month basis by 18.3
4.7 percent exhibited significant volatility
percent) from January to November
percent.
between August and November, de-
2013. However, the largest decline of
Chart 7. Cereal Prices in selected Central African countries
Chad’s cereal production in the
maize prices increaed by 26.9 percent
2013/2014 growing season is up by 12
between January and October but re-
wheat, is expected to reach record highs
in Morocco (7 million tonnes) and Egypt
percent compared to thefive-year ave-
duced by 8.3 percent between August
(9.4 million tonnes). However, decreased
rage, though severe localized production
and October 2013.
wheat production, relative to 2012, was
recorded in Algeria (6.0 percent) and in
shortfalls are expected in some regions15
because of the late start of the season
v) North Africa
Tunisia (43.0 percent) on account of in-
and poor rainfall distribution16. The price
sufficient precipitation in some productive
of sorghum in the capital N’djamena
Following the favorable weather condi-
decreased by 10.2 percent overall bet-
tions in most countries of North Africa in
ween January and October 2013. Ho-
2013, total aggregate cereal output for
North Africa is a net importer of cereals,
wever it increased by 7.3 percent bet-
the year is estimated at about 39.5
ween August and October 2013 as the
million tonnes, which is about 10.0 per-
regardless of bumper harvests in any
given year. Egypt and Morocco import
stocks were depleted pending harvests
cent above 2012 production levels. Pro-
about 45.0 percent of their domestic
coming to market. In the market of Bol,
D e v e l o p m e n t
duction of the subregion’s main staple,
cereal requirements from international
A f r i c a n
15
16
17
B a n k
regions17.
Kanem, Wadi-Fira, Barh-El Ghazel, and Hajer Lamis
Fewsnet West Africa Food Security outlook October 2013- March 2014
Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 4, December 2013.
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markets, while Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya
tember unfolded, most households in
people in "stress" who mainly relied on
have much higher import ratios of 65.0
the subregion continued to face mode-
livelihood support.
percent, 68.0 percent, and 90.0 percent
rate food insecurity and were able to
respectively. Of all the countries in the
subregion, Morocco is the only country
meet even non-food needs from the
In localized parts of Somalia, South
sale of cash crops and from selling their
Sudan, Sudan, and Ethiopia, severe and
to record a decrease (of 22.0 percent)
labor. It remained difficult to access
emergency or crisis level food security
in its cereal imports compared to the
grain for poor households, particularly in
outcomes were likely to persist through
previous year, thanks to good harvests
the agro-pastoral areas of eastern Niger,
March 2014 because of below normal
in 2013.
northern Nigeria, and northern Mali.
rains, limited access to humanitarian
Looking ahead, most households in the
assistance, and impacts of conflict
Food inflation rates in the subregion de-
Sahel are expected to deplete their food
among other factors.
clined in the second half of 2013, reflec-
stocks because of the severe produc-
ting falling prices of meat, vegetables,
tion shortfalls largely attributed to the
and fruit. Annual food inflation rates in
Algeria averaged 1.8 percent in the last
late onset of rains. The food security
Tanzania, food insecurity is expected to
outlook of the subregion during the first
abate as food prices begin to fall. The
In South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, and
half of 2013, compared to the much hi-
quarter of 2014 will be primarily threate-
formalized agreement between Sudan
gher level in June of 5.9 percent. Morocco’s annual food inflation rate declined
ned by below-average harvests in
and South Sudan should improve rela-
Nigeria and possible escalation (and
tions between the two countries, which
to about 1.8 percent between August
spread) of conflicts in parts of Niger,
is expected to improve food security in
and November 2013, down from 3.2
Chad, and Mali20.
some areas. For example, through this
percent in June. Food and beverage inflation rates in Egypt, at 14.0 percent,
agreement South Sudanese households
ii) East Africa
may expect to gain better access to
remain high despite a 1.0percent decline
labor opportunities in Sudan; specifi-
in August and September, following low
As of September 2013, the estimated
cally, Sudanese Messerisya pastoralists
demand after the month of Ramadan.
Tunisia’s food inflation has been stable
number of people across the subregion
may gain better access to grazing ran-
facing stressed, severe and critical levels
gelands in South Sudan. Moreover,
at about 8.0 percent since July18.
of food insecurity was 11.1 million,
opportunities should open up as the two
down by about 14 percent from June
countries continue to equitably share oil
2013. Significant improvements were
revenues22. However, food security in
observed in many parts of Somalia,
the first quarter of 2014 in the subregion
2.3.
Food security trends in
Africa’s subregions
South Sudan, Sudan, and Ethiopia
may be threatened by a number of risk
By mid-2013, most countries in the
partly attributed to incresed access to
factors, some man-made and some
subregion were experiencing moderate
humanitarian assistance , which conti-
weather-related. For example, food
or mild food insecurity. Exceptions were
nued to the end of the year. In Somalia
security may be endangered if the Sep-
those areas affected by civil insecurity
for instance, the UN's Food Security
tember agreements between Sudan and
21
and unrest, namely northern Mali and
and Nutrition Analysis Unit’s assessment
South Sudan are not implemented; or if
northeastern Nigeria; which were in
of January 2014 showed that the num-
there are delays or cancelations in plan-
more severe food insecurity19. As the
ber of Somalis in crisis had reduced to
ned humanitarian assistance; or if there
harvest season between July and Sep-
870,000, but there were still 2.3 million
are below-average October-December
A f r i c a n
18
19
20
21
22
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 3, October 2013.
FEWSNET West Africa Food Security Outlook Update April-September 2013.
FEWSNET West Africa Food Security Outlook Update October 2013-March 2014.
FEWSNET East Africa Food Security Outlook October 2013-March 2014
FEWSNET East Africa Food Security Outlook October 2013-March 2014
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precipitation levels. The situation is
• An increase in grain staples in Zambia
insecurity, and this was forecast to conti-
expected to be further exacerbated
and South Africa to levels well above
nue until March 2014. In the northern
should the on-going conflict that started
average; and
and central areas of the country however,
in mid-December 2013 in South Sudan
persist.
iii) Southern Africa
Against the backdrop of a reduced 2013
• Inadequate and delayed input supply
the effects of the heightened civil unrest
in Zambia, especially from the go-
left many households in stressful food
vernment’s input support programs,
security situations and this was expected
which target poor farmers.
to continue into the first quarter of 201424.
iv) Central Africa
v) North Africa
crop harvests relative to 2012, most
countries in the subregion experienced
Throughout 2013, the Central African
The North African subregion experienced
moderate food insecurity throughout the
Republic and the Democratic Republic
good grain harvests throughout 2013
calendar year 2013. However, parts of
of Congo experienced serious food in-
and this, together the continuation of
southern Malawi, semi-arid districts of
security situations because of the conti-
generous food subsidies in a number of
southern and central Mozambique, parts
nued civil unrest. Apart from disrupting
countries, kept food inflation levels at
of the southern provinces of Zimbabwe,
agricultural activities and humanitarian
fairly low levels, except in Egypt. This
and most parts of Lesotho continued to
interventions, civil unrest restricted the
meant that most households in the su-
experience acute food insecurity throu-
access of poor households to food.
bregion were able to meet their food
ghout 2013. FEWS NET anticipates that
About 1.2 million people in the Central
needs. Egypt proved an exception be-
the subregion’s food security outlook
African Republic and 6.35 million in the
cause the civil unrest in the country
will remain largely secure through the
Democratic Republic of Congo were ex-
fueled double-digit inflation and also ero-
first quarter of 2014. At the peak of the
periencing acute food insecurity out-
ded the country’s foreign exchange re-
lean season (January–February 2014),
comes by June 2013 . The civil unrest
serves, which made the importation of
the reduced funding for humanitarian
resulted in an estimated 2.7 million and
wheat expensive. Consequently, the po-
assistance in the subregion will put
395,000 internally displaced persons in
pulation was subjected to substantial
23
further pressure on poor and very poor
the Democratic Republic of Congo and
food price hikes and deteriorating food
households in parts of Malawi and Zim-
Central African Republic, respectively,
security outcomes. The widespread bud-
babwe, worsening the situation to acute
by September 2013.
getary constraints existing in the subregion is forcing governments to examine
levels. The southern and western regions
of Zimbabwe were hit the hardest and
Food security outcomes in these two
whether they can afford to maintain
experienced rather stressful food inse-
countries were experienced disparately
substantial food subsidies. However, the
curity levels.
by populations according to whether or
alternative of popular mass demonstra-
not they lived in areas directly affected
tions, as witnessed in Egypt in the late
Other than reduced humanitarian assis-
by conflict. As the harvests came to
1970s, is deterring governments from
tance, other threats to food security in
markets in the second half of 2013, the
abandoning the food subsidy program
first quarter of 2014 include:
southern and western regions of the
altogether, although it is coming under
Central African Republic showed impro-
closer scrutiny25.
• Possible restrictions on cross-border
in these areas experiencing mild food
trade;
A f r i c a n
23
24
25
ved food security, with most households
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 2, June 2013.
http://www.fews.net/west-africa/central-african-republic
See, http://thecairopost.com/news/102940/news/supply-minister-announces-new-food-subsidy-system
10
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
brief
brief
AfDB
AfDB
Africa
Food Food
Security
Africa
Security
Section
Chief Economist
Chief Economist
Complex
Complex
Climate change and food security in Africa
3
3.1.
Global significance of
climate change
2050 due to the combined impact of cli-
that killed over a quarter of a million
mate change, land degradation, and wa-
people – and itwas partly caused by cli-
ter scarcity. At the same time, the global
mate change29.
Global challenges in the 21st Century
population is projected to increase from
have reached unprecedented levels of
the current 7 billion to about 9.5 billion
Richard Munang30 has observed that
complexity and magnitude. Chief among
people by 205027.
“current systems of production will only
be able to meet 13.0 percent of the
them are food insecurity, malnutrition,
climate change, poverty and social exclusion, ill health, and environmental de-
3.2.
gradation. Addressing these challenges
will require urgent, innovative, and lasting
Climate change impacts and
food security prospects in
Africa
Of particular interest is the phenomenon
three out of every four people added to
the planet between now and 2100 will
be born in the region. In the coming
half century, the land we grow our food
solutions underpinned by the concerted
efforts on the part of the global community.
continent's food needs by 2050, while
According to Aly Abou-Sabaa28, “Africa
on will change. This will make feeding
needs to change its development tra-
the world's growing population a com-
jectory in order to win its fight against
plicated task. Higher temperatures
of significant and lasting change in the
both poverty and climate change.” This
could cause total farm yields to drop
distribution of weather patterns (tempe-
statement echoes the general view that
by 15-20 percent across all African re-
rature, water cycle, precipitation, global
Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate
gions. All at once, the 65 percent of the
currents, etc. and the effects on the bios-
change threats because both supply-
African workforce who directly depend
phere), commonly known as “climate
side and demand-side challenges are
on agriculture as their life blood will be-
change.” The analyses being undertaken
putting additional pressure on an al-
come the most threatened by climate
by climatologists worldwide span pe-
ready fragile food production system.
change and affected food patterns.”
of years. According to the United States
The fragility of Africa’s food production
Global circulation models (GCMs) tend
National Research Council, “there is a
system has already been raised in Sec-
to provide statistical predictions or pro-
riods ranging from decades to millions
strong, credible body of evidence, based
tion 2, which highlighted the causative
jections of climate change and its
on multiple lines of research, documen-
inter-linkages between a number of
influence on food production, but these
ting that climate is changing and that
food insecurity incidences in African’s
frequently disagree in the magnitude of
these changes are in large part caused
subregions and climatic change in-
their projections. This is usually on
by human activities .” In turn, climate
fluences. For example, severe droughts
account of the wide-ranging differences
26
change threatens most facets of human
and floods in East Africa have increased
in the underlying data used, variables
social, economic, and demographic life.
in frequency in recent years, occurring
and forecast methods chosen, and
The United Nations Environmental Pro-
in 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2011. The
modeling assumptions made (including
gram projects that up to one quarter of
2011 drought affected over 13 million
the time horizon for the projections).
people and led to a famine in Somalia
However, there is general agreement
global food production could be lost by
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
National Research Council (2010) “America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change”; Washington, D.C.: Copyright © National
Academy of Sciences; the National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14588-0; also accessible at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12782
27
See more at: http://www.climatecommunication.org/affects/food-production/#!prettyPhoto/0/
28
Aly Abou-Sabaa is the Vice President of AfDB’s Sector Operation, in charge of Governance, Agriculture and Human Development.
29
OXFAM (2013) “Growing Disruption: Climate change, food, and the fight against hunger”, OXFAM Issue Briefing, September
30
Richard Munang “How Africa can feed itself in the face of climate change” Opinion: Aljazeera(http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/09/how-africaan-feed); Richard Munang is Africa Regional Climate Change Head & Coordinator at the United Nations Environment Programme (3 October 2013)
26
11
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
brief
brief
AfDB
AfDB
Africa
Food Food
Security
Africa
Security
Chief Economist Complex
Chief Economist Complex
about the direction of the impacts. A
will potentially experience the most
percent. With higher levels of warming,
few examples provide insights about
severe impacts of climate change.
countries in sub-Saharan Africa could
the key expected impacts of climate
Some of the positive and negative
experience catastrophic declines in
change on food production.
impacts of climate change in Africa
yield of 20-30 percent by 2080.
would include:
Liliana Hisas (2011)31 analyzed the combined population growth, food production, nutrition and undernourishment
The Climate Communication33 Group
• About two-thirds of arable land in
made similar observations. Its analysis
Africa predicted to be lost by 2025;
showed that food production is projec-
also
ted to decline in tropical regions as
change, assessed the impacts of climate
impact yields from rain-fed agricul-
rising temperatures decrease crop
change on food production. She posited
ture, with estimations of up to 50
yields. Drought-prone areas of Africa
that the temperature of the planet would
percent less in some countries;
are particularly vulnerable to food shor-
increase by at least 2.4oC above pre-
• On the plus side, the combination of
tages due to a reduction in the land
industrial times, largely on account of
increased temperature and rainfall
area suitable for agriculture. Agricultural
and linking these variables to climate
• Decreased
rainfall
would
mad-made carbon dioxide (greenhouse
changes would lengthen the gro-
losses could be severe in the Sahel,
gas) emissions. Two of the three main
wing season potentially benefiting,
East Africa, and Southern Africa. In
elements of food production – water
for example, the production of
some North African countries, rain-fed
(mainly in the form of rain, on which 80
Ethiopian coffee.
crop yields could decline by as much
percent of food production depends)
as 50 percent in extreme years by
and climate – would be most affected
Referencing other studies, a report by
2020. Degradation of coral reefs and
by climate change. The most significant
OXFAM (2013)32 observed that in the
mangroves, as well as rising lake tem-
impacts of climate change on food pro-
tropics and sub-tropics in general, crop
peratures and overfishing, can be
duction would be on tropical regions
yields may decrease by 10-20 percent
expected to decrease fish supplies in
due to reduced water availability and
by 2050 because of climate change,
Africa. Regional declines in agricultural
increased temperatures, and on tem-
and there are places where yield losses
productivity due to climate change are
perate regions due to changes in pre-
may be even more severe. Even with
forecast to be in the range of 15-50
cipitation.
global warming of less than 2oC by the
percent in most African countries by
2050s, total crop production in sub-
2080 (Figure 1).
Hisas projected that the African region
Saharan Africa could be reduced by 10
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
Liliana Hisas (2011) “The Impacts of Climate Change on Food Production: A 2020 Perspective”. The Food Gap,Universal Ecological Fund (Fundación Ecológica
Universal FEU-US), February
32
OXFAM (2013) “Growing Disruption: Climate change, food, and the fight against hunger”, OXFAM Issue Briefing, September
33
Climate Communication, http://www.climatecommunication.org/affects/food-production/#!prettyPhoto/0/ (accessed 4 January 2014)
31
12
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
brief
brief
AfDB
AfDB
Africa
Food Food
Security
Africa
Security
Chief Economist
Chief Economist
Complex
Complex
Figure 1. Projected changes in agricultural productivity due to climate change, 2080.34
Using a combination of modeling
and drought stress (Figure 2).
Oxfam commissioned research by the
approaches, Ringler et al. (2011) project
Institute of Development Studies, which
that cereal production growth for a
Ringler et al. assert that world prices are
explored a range of food price scenarios
range of crops in Sub-Saharan Africa
a key indicator of the effects of climate
for 2030, using international trade
will decline by a net 3.2 percent in 2050
change on agriculture and, even more
models. This found that, in the absence
as a result of climate change . The lar-
importantly, on food affordability and
of urgent and aggressive action to tackle
gest
are
security. Food prices increase for all sta-
global warming, the average price of
projected for wheat—of which the
ple crops because climate change acts
staple foods could more than double in
35
negative
yield
impacts
region grows very little—followed by
as an additional stressor on the already
the next 20 years compared with 2010
sweet potatoes. Overall, millet and sor-
tightening price outlook. Under worse-
trend prices (Figure 3)36 – with up to half
ghum yields are projected to be slightly
ning climate change, it is projected that
of the increase caused by climate
higher under climate change, given their
maize, rice, and wheat prices will be 4,
change (changing mean temperatures
higher tolerance to higher temperatures
7, and 15 percent higher by 2050.
and rainfall patterns).
A f r i c a n
34
35
36
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
Source: http://www.climatecommunication.org/affects/food-production/#!prettyPhoto/0/
In the modeling, increased area expansion of 2.1 percent partially compensates for an overall yield growth decline of 4.6 percent.
OXFAM (2013), “Growing Disruption: Climate change, food, and the fight against hunger,” OXFAM Issue Briefing, September
13
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
brief
brief
AfDB
AfDB
Africa
Food Food
Security
Africa
Security
Chief Economist Complex
Chief Economist Complex
Figure 2. Projected changes in Sub-Saharan African crop yields due to climate change, 205037
Figure 3. Predicted impact of climate change on world market food export prices to 203037
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
Source: Claudia Ringler, Tingju Zhu, Ximing Cai, Jawoo Koo, and Dingbao Wang (2011) “Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Comprehensive Climate Change Modeling,” International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Policy Brief, pp.15-20.
37
14
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
brief
brief
AfDB
AfDB
Africa
Food Food
Security
Africa
Security
Chief Economist
Chief Economist
Complex
Complex
These stark statistics present a salutary
regional coalition for pooling resources
Parties (COP12), held in Nairobi in
reminder that climate change is exer-
and power among African states and
2006, saw African states begin to take
ting fundamental adverse impacts on
seeks to advance common African
a more proactive role in agenda setting
African food production and the food
interests on the issues of climate
for the COP. In February 2009,
security
change.
COMESA made the first proposal for an
situation.
As
opined
by
Munang , if nothing is done, millions of
African Position on Climate Change,
38
people in Africa will experience severe
Over the past twenty years, the Group
which was to the UNFCCC. This was
food insecurity, potentially fueling food
has played the part of a relatively minor
formulated ahead of COP15, which
riots as was the case in 2007-2008,
coalition, compared to others such as
was held in Copenhagen in December
when prices of maize and soybean led
the Alliance of Small Island States
of the same year.
to mass demonstrations in more than
(AOSIS), the Organization of Petroleum
30 countries. Furthermore, an unpubli-
Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the
The African Position led to the inclusion
shed U.S. government study indicates
G77, which have each significantly sha-
of agriculture on the agendas of
that the world should prepare for many
ped the course of the United Nations
COP16 in Cancun in 2010 and COP17
more similar episodes as food prices
Framework Convention on Climate
in Durban in 2011. In 2013, the AGN
spiral and long-standing agricultural
Change (UNFCCC) negotiations . The
submitted to the UNFCCC the regional
practices get disrupted by climate
AGN has faced financial, technological,
position that “there is need for scientific
change. The African continent is expec-
informational, and technical capacity
knowledge on how to enhance the
ted to suffer disproportionately from
constraints to addressing and articula-
adaptation of agriculture to climate
food insecurity, due to the fast growth
ting the core issues relating to climate
change impacts while promoting rural
of populations vulnerable to climate
change. These constraints also limited
development, sustainable development
change.
its ability to negotiate effectively for
and productivity of agricultural systems
Africa’s common position on climate
and
3.3.
The African response to
climate change
39
food
security.”
ThisPosition
change; a concept that was also poorly
acknowledges that the priority for
framed at the time. As a result, the
agriculture in Africa is to ensure food
Group initially attracted scant attention
security, the eradication of poverty and
The African Group of Negotiators (AGN)
from policy-makers and development
improvements
in
has emerged as the main regional body
practitioners involved in global climate
development
and
socio-economic
environmental
spearheading activities in the global cli-
change negotiations and consequently,
sustainability. It is in this regard that the
mate
the AGN had only a limited impact on
African Position seeks to foster food
inception at the Rio Earth Summit in
the global climate change agenda.
security through actions to improve the
1992. The Group represents the most
In the recent past however, the AGN
productivity, adaptive capacity and
comprehensive African initiative on cli-
has enhanced its capacities and grown
climate change resilience of agricultural
mate change. It has operated as a
in stature. The twelfth Conference of
activities.
change
debate
since
their
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
38
OXFAM (2013) “Growing Disruption: Climate change, food, and the fight against hunger”, OXFAM Issue Briefing, September Richard Munang, “How Africa can
feed itself in the face of climate change” Opinion: Aljazeera(http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/09/how-africa-can-feed); Richard Munang is Africa Regional Climate Change Head & Coordinator at the United Nations Environment Programme (3 October 2013)
39
COMESA-EAC-SADC Climate Change Program (2013) “African Position on Climate Change.” August.
15
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
brief
brief
AfDB
AfDB
Africa
Food Food
Security
Africa
Security
Chief Economist Complex
Chief Economist Complex
In order to monitor and analyze the
and that in order to mitigate its effects
Nations in September 2010.
food security situation and that of
sustainable agriculture more generally,
what
There is clearly a growing level of
is
needed
is
agricultural
adaptation to climate change. Going
it is vital to have good quality data, well-
African participation in the issues of
forward, among other things, this will
trained statistical staff and robust IT
climate
mean the following:
change
and
sustainable
systems and networks in place. It soon
agriculture, as these issues become
became evident that there was a
better understood by African policy-
• Harnessing knowledge about the
paucity of agricultural data, particularly
makers and development practitioners.
causes and consequences of cli-
in the African region. There was
Although poor financial, technological
mate change and using it more
therefore a pressing need to scale up
and technical resources as well as
effectively to influence national,
the capacity of states to collect,
limited access to good information have
regional, and international decision-
monitor,
the
played a limiting role in the past; these
making and economic and social
information demanded by national and
are increasingly being addressed by
practices;
and
disseminate
regional policymakers, as well as by
international community and regional
• Fostering the right (knowledge-
international development organizations
organizations. In view of the significant
based) climate choices that limit the
in order to address challenges such as
and growing scale and complexity of
magnitude of future climate change,
food
climate change issues, much remains
and promote economic (food pro-
to be done in order to ensure that the
duction and other agricultural),
adverse effects of climate change on
human and environmental adapta-
food security are mitigated. Without
tions
insecurity.
This led to the
formulation of the Action Plan to
Improve Statistics for Food Security,
Sustainable Agriculture, and Rural
to
the
current
climatic
Development in Africa, which was
such efforts, not only will poverty and
finalized and published by the AfDB in
malnutrition increase but there will be a
• For Africa – as the region likely to
May 2011 in collaboration with the
mass migration of populations seeking
most severely affected by climate
ECA, AUC, and FAO . Implementation
simply to survive.
40
circumstance; and
change –it also means establishing
of the Action Plan is now well underway
and the AfDB publishes regular updates
a “bigger global voice and pre-
3.4.
Way forward
sence.” Not only will this demand
on the status of implementation. The
the mobilization and mainstreaming
Action Plan for Africa forms part of the
The discussion so far has amply
of climate change financing at all
wider Global Strategy endorsed by the
demonstrated that climate change will
levels, but also the mobilization of
international community, which was
require effective strategic responses
prominent and like-minded climate
jointly published by the Food and
both globally and in Africa. Most
change champions as advocates
Agriculture Organization (FAO), the
experts agree that climate change has
within and outside the continent.
World Bank/IBRD, and the United
progressed too far to be halted entirely
A f r i c a n
40
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
The full text of the Action Plan for Africa can be accessed via the web address: www.afdb.org/en/knowledge/publications
16
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
brief
brief
AfDB
AfDB
Africa
Food Food
Security
Africa
Security
Section
Chief Economist
Chief Economist
Complex
Complex
Conclusion
4
Founded on the premise that food
kets would become more balanced
translated into an overall increase in
security is a developmental imperative
and less price volatile in 2013 relative
production compared to 2012 and
in Africa, this Africa Food Security Brief
to previous years. Amongst the cereal
general price declines (although some
has presented the latest data on global
crops, wheat prices continued to be
noteworthy upswings were also obser-
and African food prices, as well as food
highly sensitive to weather-related fac-
ved in the Central African Republic). In
availability, related factors and trends
tors that could affect harvest yields.
North Africa, food inflation rates decli-
for the period July to December 2013.
Whereas import demand for wheat
ned during most of the second half of
This fifth issue of the Brief focused on
was strong and resilient, export capa-
2013, mainly due to falling prices of
climate change as the special thematic
city was only just sufficient to meet
meat, vegetables, and fruit.
area.
demand. For coarse grains, stocks of
the crop were comfortably high inter-
Regarding food security trends in
In terms of international food price
nationally, which kept the lid on global
Africa’s subregions, a varied picture
trends overall, a general downward
wheat prices. The expectation was that
trend in the global food price index (FPI)
even if trade were to expand, adequate
was observed throughout 2013. The
stocks would be available to sustain
emerged during the period January–
December 2013. In the Sahel and
West African subregions, by July 2013,
only exceptions were some upward
robust exports and keep prices down.
most countries were experiencing minimal food insecurity, save for areas
reversals in the index observed in
March, April, and October. The main
Across the five African subregions,
drivers of the general decline in the
food prices generally showed wide
affected by civil insecurity. In East
Africa, as of September 2013, the esti-
index included falling international
variations. The variations were under-
mated
cereal prices and higher than expected
pinned
things,
stressed, crisis, and emergency levels
supplies of cereal throughout the year.
contrasting socio-political conditions
of food insecurity had declined by
and weather patterns in different
about 14 percent compared to 2012.
In Southern Africa, despite reduced
Global prices were generally volatile in
by,
among
other
the second half of 2013. Although this
subregions and countries therein. In
West Africa, cereal prices remained
number
of
people
facing
2013 crop harvests relative to 2012,
continued to pose a threat to food
fairly stable in most Sahelian countries
most countries experienced minimal
security, particularly in conflict-ridden
but declined in most of the Gulf of Gui-
food insecurity throughout 2013. In
areas, the level of volatility reduced in
nea countries in the first season of
2013 compared to the past few years.
2013, mainly due to the combined
relation to Central Africa, during 2013,
the Central African Republic and the
This was mainly on account of the
influence of adequate inventories from
Democratic Republic of Congo expe-
improved food supplies and the reco-
2012 and good harvests in 2013.In
East Africa, there was a general
rienced serious food security situations
very in global inventories of cereal.
because of the continued civil unrest.
upward trend for most selected cereal
Finally, because the North African
prices, throughout 2013. However, in
subregion experienced good grain har-
composites of the FPI suggest that the
Southern Africa, all monitored cereal
vests throughout 2013 and continued
significant price changes between
D e v e l o p m e n t
prices increased between January and
to enjoy generous government food
January and December 2013 were dri-
October 2013 with the exception of
subsidies in a number of countries,
A disaggregated view of the major
A f r i c a n
B a n k
ven mainly by price fluctuations in dairy
wheat in South Africa, which declined.
food inflation levels were kept at a rea-
products, cereal products, and sugar.
In Central Africa, most countries recei-
sonable level(except in Egypt), allowing
Forecasts for international food prices
ved average to above-average rainfall
most households in the subregion to
by the FOA indicated that food mar-
during the 2013 growing seasons. This
meet their food needs.
17
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
brief
brief
AfDB
AfDB
Africa
Food Food
Security
Africa
Security
Chief Economist Complex
Chief Economist Complex
This Brief observes that global chal-
nent’s total food needs. The stark pro-
cial,
technological
and
technical
lenges in the 21st Century have
jections essentially emphasized that
resources as well as limited access to
reached unprecedented magnitudes
climate change is exerting fundamen-
good information continue to play a
and levels of complexity, with food
tal adverse impacts on African food
limiting role; albeit to a declining
insecurity,
production and the food security situa-
extent.
malnutrition,
climate
change, poverty, ill health, and envi-
tion.
ronmental degradation topping the list.
The focus of this issue has been on cli-
Going forward, it is anticipated that
At the continental level, the African
coping with climate change will require
mate change, as it critically threatens
Group of Negotiators (AGN) has been
effective strategic responses globally
most facets of social, economic, and
the main response to articulate Africa’s
and in Africa, to help mitigate its
demographic life. The fragility of
position and to help contribute to the
effects and at the same time encou-
Africa’s food production system has
climate change agenda. The AGN has
rage agricultural adaptation through
been well illustrated, highlighting a
spearheaded activities in the global cli-
various means. This could be done
number of food insecurity incidences
mate
its
through, among other things, harnes-
in Africa’s subregions that are inextri-
inception at the Rio Earth Summit in
sing knowledge about the causes and
cably
change
1992. The Group represents the most
consequences of climate change, fos-
influences and stresses. Examples
comprehensive African initiative on cli-
tering
were given of droughts in East Africa,
mate change. It has operated as a
choices
which increased in frequency, with
regional coalition for pooling resources
human and environmental adapta-
recorded occurrences in 2005, 2006,
and power among African states and
tions, and by establishing a “bigger
2008, and 2011. Projections were also
seeks to advance common African
global voice and presence” for Africa
linked
to
climatic
change
debate
since
knowledge-based
that
promote
climate
economic,
provided of the limited expect to which
interests on the issues of climate
by scaling up climate change financing
current systems of food production
change. Despite some successes by
and galvanizing climate change cham-
could be expected to meet the conti-
the AGN, the constraints of poor finan-
pions within and outside the continent.
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
18
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
brief
brief
AfDB
AfDB
Africa
Security
Africa
Food Food
Security
Economist
ChiefChief
Economist
ComplexComplex
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
19
A f r i c a n
D e v e l o p m e n t
B a n k
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