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UNIVERSIDADE DE LISBOA FACULDADE DE CIÊNCIAS DEPARTAMENTO DE BIOLOGIA ANIMAL HABITAT CONNECTIVITY FOR CARNIVORES IN MEDITERRANEAN LANDSCAPES IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSERVATION PLANNING CLARA BENTES GRILO DOUTORAMENTO EM BIOLOGIA (Biologia da Conservação) 2009 UNIVERSIDADE DE LISBOA FACULDADE DE CIÊNCIAS DEPARTAMENTO DE BIOLOGIA ANIMAL HABITAT CONNECTIVITY FOR CARNIVORES IN MEDITERRANEAN LANDSCAPES IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSERVATION PLANNING CLARA BENTES GRILO Tese co-orientada por: Professora Doutora Margarida Santos-Reis Professor Doutor John A. Bissonette DOUTORAMENTO EM BIOLOGIA (Biologia da Conservação) 2009 This research was funded by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Project POCTI/MGS/47435/2002 and a PhD grant SFRH/BD/10600/2002) and additional support was provided by Brisa Auto-Estradas de Portugal S.A. This dissertation should be cited as: Grilo C (2009) Habitat Connectivity for Carnivores in Mediterranean Landscapes. Phd Thesis, University of Lisbon, Portugal NOTA PRÉVIA Na elaboração desta dissertação foram usados resultados de trabalhos já publicados ou submetidos para publicação em revistas científicas internacionais indexadas. Uma vez que estes trabalhos foram realizados em colaboração com outros investigadores, e de acordo com o disposto nos termos do Nº 1 do Artigo 40, Capitulo V, do Regulamento de estudos PósGraduados da Universidade de Lisboa, publicado no Diário da República – II Série Nº 153, de 5 de Julho de 2003, esclareço que participei integralmente na concepção, obtenção, análise e discussão dos resultados, bem como na redacção dos manuscritos dos artigos I a IV. Devido à integração de vários artigos científicos o padrão de formatação apresentado é variável conforme as normas de cada revista de publicação. Lisboa, 26 de Fevereiro de 2009 Clara Bentes Grilo i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS /AGRADECIMENTOS À Professora Doutora Margarida Santos-Reis pela confiança que depositou em mim ao aceitar a orientação da tese de doutoramento, por todo o apoio e incentivo ao longo deste processo, e sobretudo, pelos ensinamentos e oportunidades que me proporcionou e que contribuíram para a minha formação cientifica e pessoal nos últimos 13 anos. Obrigada! To Professor John A. Bissonette that kindly accepted to be my co-adviser which gave me a great opportunity to make contact with new ideas and procedures to my work. Thank you for all the support, guidance and encouragement even at distance. À Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia pela concessão da bolsa de doutoramento (SFRH/BD/10600/2002) e do estágio nos EUA bem como do financiamento do projecto POCTI/MGS/47435/2002. À Brisa Auto-Estradas de Portugal S.A., pelo apoio logístico que tornou possível a realização deste estudo, nomeadamente ao Engº Victor Santiago e Engª Margarida Braga. Às minhas musas inspiradoras: ao Joaquim Pedro Ferreira pelas longas e intermináveis conversas sobre Conservação, e sobretudo, pelas utopias! Tu foste o meu maior apoio, o grande camarada, também o mais crítico, mas sempre aquele que mais acreditou em mim e no meu trabalho; ao Fernando Ascensão pela troca e partilha de ideias, pela colaboração constante nas diferentes fases da tese; tu foste a pessoa que mais compreendeu este estudo e sem ti, não me teria dado tanto gozo a concretizá-lo; ao Carlos Fernandes pelo seu calibre científico e pela sua energia positiva que me contagiou e me deu ânimo para acabar este trabalho e sonhar com novas áreas e projectos de investigação. A todos os que me ajudaram no campo e que proporcionaram momentos inesquecíveis, sobretudo à Marta Cruz por me ter aturado e por ter sido uma camarada ao longo de seis meses intensivos de trabalho de campo. À Ana Marta Serronha e Ana Rita Mateus, que apesar de não terem contribuído directamente neste estudo, a vossa participação na 2ª fase do estudo das passagens hidráulicas, permitiu que fossem atingidos os objectivos do protocolo com a Brisa, e libertar-me para a escrita da tese. Aos que me ajudaram a obter os dados de atropelamentos, que sob o tema de estágio ou mestrado me substituíram por uns meses na monitorização das estradas: a Carla Baltazar, o Luís Gomes e, em particular, a Clara Silva pela sua energia e profissionalismo, e sobretudo, por fazer do trabalho de campo uma festa constante! Aos funcionários dos Centros Operacionais de Estremoz, Grândola e Vendas Novas da Brisa Auto-Estradas de Portugal pelo registo e recolha dos carnívoros atropelados; à central betuminosa Tecnobet (Évora) pela cedência de pó de filler. Aos donos das propriedades e caseiros que permitiram que as suas terras fossem invadidas por máquinas fotográficas e estações de cheiro e, acima de tudo, por terem dado a conhecer, no terreno, a realidade sobre a conservação de carnívoros: Sr. Joaquim Carriço da Sociedade Agrícola das Silveiras, Sr. Tavares Silva, Sr. Almeida Martins, Sr. José Laboreiro, Sr. Manuel Bruno, Sr. Picolino, Sr. Marcolino da Sociedade Agrícola de Vale do Cão, Sr. Luís, Sr. Arqtº Aires Mateus, Sr. Eng. Alfredo Araújo. Ao Professores Doutores Henrique Cabral, Rui Rebelo e Francisco Petrucci-Fonseca pela revisão dos artigos e ainda aos colegas e amigos Fernando Ascensão, Joaquim Pedro Ferreira e Joana Roque de Pinho pelos comentários e sugestões ao longo das diferentes fases deste estudo. iii To Dr. Susan Durham for the valuable statistical support, Dr. Eric Geese, Dr. JP Metzger, Dr. Chip Leslie and anonymous revisores that helped with valuable comments to improve the manuscripts. A todos os colegas voluntários que participaram no trabalho campo e que contribuíram para que este fosse bem mais animado: à Ana Filipa Ferreira, Dulce, Marta Pimentel, Ana Paula Rosa, Joaquim Pedro Ferreira, Soraia Oliveira, Marco Lusquiños, João Rosário, Sílvia Rosa, Hugo Tavares, Hugo Baptista, Dulce Ferreira, Mónica Rodrigues, Nuno Negrões, Joana Bernardino, Joana Roque de Pinho, Jorge Román, Sara Cortez e Luís Almeida. A toda a equipa dos carnívoros do CBA pelo apoio bibliográfico, pela partilha do material e equipamento de campo; e em especial, ao Carlos Fernandes e Mónica Rodrigues pelo apoio nas necrópsias. Ao Miguel Caldeira Pais, à Helena Rio-Maior, ao Rogério Cangarato, à Sofia Alexandre, ao Fernando Ascensão, à Catarina Ferreira, à Sílvia Rosa pela contribuição com informação de dados de atropelamentos e bibliografia. À Ana Galantinho e Filipe Carvalho da Universidade de Évora pelos contactos dos proprietários dos terrenos de Monfurado e dicas para as estações de cheiro. Ao Paulo Cardoso pelo apoio nos SIGs e ao Ricardo Pita pelos esclarecimentos nas dúvidas de estatística (já está!). Ao recente mini-mega Grupo de Trabalho de Ecologia de Estradas (GTEE) – Fernando Ascensão, Dyana Reto, Joel Filipe, Joana Sousa, Hugo Matos, Filipe Dias, Ana Rita Mateus e Ana Marta Serronha, Inês Leitão, pela paciência e compreensão durante a minha ausência nos últimos tempos, em particular à Dyana Reto por me ter apoiado e substituído em várias tarefas do projecto nos últimos dois meses de escrita da tese. Aos jornalistas Paulo Caetano e Carla Castelo pela divulgação dos trabalhos desenvolvidos no âmbito desta tese na comunicação social, que é um importante contributo para a conservação dos carnívoros em Portugal. To John and Mary Bissonette that received me with open arms and share your home and tasty food and all the US friends: TammyWilson and Josh, Marla Kirschbaum, Magathi Jayaram and Jerry W., Chris Winstead, Richard Willis, Shauna Leavitt, Patty Cramer for the three kick ass months! Also, to Ryan Lockwood (my roomy that made my stay easier in Logan), thank you so much! Aos amigos do meu coração pela força e estímulo e por me fazerem esquecer as partes mais difíceis deste trabalho: à Joana Roque Pinho, ao Joaquim Pedro Ferreira, à Catarina Pereira, à Vanda Lobo, e à Ana Henriques (Náná). À minha família pelo exemplo e pelo apoio constante. Aos meus pais por tudo. iv ABSTRACT The goal of this thesis is to provide sound information related to humaninduced landscape changes on the Portuguese carnivore guild. More specifically, it addresses at what scale(s) extent(s) did carnivores appear to respond to fragmentation; which are the patterns of carnivore-vehicle collisions and their causes; how carnivores respond to highways culverts and underpasses; and which is the relationship between “montado” connectivity and carnivore mortality. Stone martens were the most sensitive species to “montado” attributes and fragmentation, although mongoose movement may be limited to shorter distances when landscape connectivity is low. Roads, on the other hand, appear to be selectively permeable and may act as filters to movement. On average, 47 carnivores/100 km/year were road-killed, with red fox suffering the highest mortality. Some species were more vulnerable during specific life history periods (e.g., provisioning young, dispersal, and breeding) and the major contributions to the deadliest segment roads were road sinuosity, suitable habitat, and low human disturbance. This study documented the regular use by most carnivores (0.7 ind./crossing structure/day) except weasels, polecats and wildcats that appeared to avoid passages. In general, carnivores preferred larger passages with vegetation close to the entrances, favorable habitat in the vicinity, and low human disturbance. This study also showed that the likelihood of stone marten occupancy decreased with distance to source areas and increased with patch size. We found an increased cost attributable to open areas and distance to riparian areas. Results presented show that common and wide-ranging species also suffer the effects of habitat fragmentation, and “montado” restoration efforts, as well as, road mitigation measures are required to restore habitat connectivity in the area and ensure long-term sustainability of a diverse carnivore guild. Further research is however needed to clarify the regional status of less common species and to disentangle the cumulative effects of population density, demography and behavior. Palavras-chave – "montado", habitat fragmentation, road permeability, animal-vehicle collisions, ecological modeling, habitat restoration. v RESUMO Ao longo do último século a paisagem tem sofrido alterações à larga escala, e de forma acelerada, devido essencialmente às actividades humanas. O crescimento exponencial da população humana tem conduzido a um aumento da exploração dos recursos naturais que se traduz na modificação da paisagem associada à perda e fragmentação do habitat de muitas espécies. A destruição e fragmentação do coberto vegetal original, a par da expansão da rede viária relacionada com o crescente número de áreas urbanas, constituem exemplos de alterações significativas da paisagem que podem resultar na ocorrência de populações animais cada vez mais pequenas e isoladas e, deste modo, mais vulneráveis à extinção local. A necessidade de manter o fluxo de indivíduos entre populações, e deste modo um fluxo genético que assegure a viabilidade das populações a longo prazo, tornou-se uma questão chave para a conservação das espécies só sendo realizada através da preservação e/ou recuperação da conectividade dos seus habitats. Os ecossistemas mediterrânicos, embora fortemente moldados pela actividade humana e mantidos ao longo de séculos de práticas tradicionais de uso do solo, têm-se mostrado vulneráveis à degradação, com a consequente perda de espécies, devido a uma série de actividades humanas associadas à industrialização da agricultura, urbanização, recreação, silvicultura extensiva e introdução de espécies exóticas. Um exemplo, é o montado de sobro (Quercus suber) e/ou de azinho (Q. ilex) que domina a paisagem do sul da Península Ibérica. Este sistema agro-silvo-pastoril constitui um interessante equilíbrio entre a exploração dos recursos e a conservação da biodiversidade, nomeadamente de pequenos e médios carnívoros (raposa Vulpes vulpes, doninha Mustela nivalis, toirão Mustela putorius, fuinha Martes foina, texugo Meles meles, lontra Lutra lutra, geneta Genetta genetta, sacarrabos Herpestes ichneumon, gato-bravo Felis silvestris, e lince Ibérico Lynx pardinus). Embora actualmente a maioria não seja alvo de preocupação em termos de conservação, excepção feita ao toirão e às duas espécies de felinos, as alterações que se verificaram na paisagem nas últimas décadas no sul de Portugal, colocam novas ameaças à conservação das espécies consideradas comuns e de distribuição generalizada. vii A presente tese constitui uma importante contribuição para a avaliação dos impactes da fragmentação do montado e da expansão da rede viária nos carnívoros do sul de Portugal. Mais especificamente, neste trabalho pretendeu-se: 1) perceber qual a sensibilidade dos carnívoros à fragmentação do montado e a que escala os atributos do montado se expressam; 2) descrever os padrões temporais e espaciais de mortalidade rodoviária e as suas causas, 3) analisar a resposta dos carnívoros à presença de passagens hidráulicas e inferiores ao longo das auto-estradas; e 4) avaliar a conectividade da paisagem para a espécie mais sensível à fragmentação do montado e as implicações da mesma para o risco de mortalidade por atropelamento. Para atingir estes objectivos recorreu-se a diferentes abordagens metodológicas. A avaliação da ocupação das manchas pelos diferentes carnívoros foi realizada com recurso a estações de cheiro, a mortalidade por atropelamento foi avaliada através da monitorização regular das estradas e das auto-estradas, e a utilização das passagens hidráulicas e inferiores das auto-estradas pelos carnívoros foi avaliada com câmaras fotográficas digitais e pó de pedra colocado no interior das mesmas. A modelação ecológica a várias escalas (local, área vital e paisagem) permitiu determinar os factores que influenciam as respostas por parte dos carnívoros às alterações da paisagem e, a aplicação de modelos espacialmente explícitos permitiu compreender como, a espécie identificada como mais sensível à fragmentação, interage com a composição e a configuração da paisagem. Com este estudo, que obteve dados significativos relativamente a um conjunto de cinco espécies (raposa, fuinha, texugo, geneta e sacarrabos), comprovou-se que a raposa não aparenta ser sensível à fragmentação do montado, ao contrário da fuinha e do sacarrabos que responderam negativamente à diminuição da dimensão das manchas de montado e ao isolamento. Os modelos multi-escala revelaram que a fuinha é a espécie mais sensível às características do montado e à sua fragmentação; a qualidade do habitat à escala local (maturidade do montado e ausência de pastoreio intensivo) mostrou-se ser o parâmetro mais importante para explicar a ocupação das áreas de montado pela fuinha, seguido do efeito conjunto do isolamento e área de montado à escala da área vital e da paisagem, respectivamente. O sacarrabos mostrouse bastante sensível à percentagem de coberto vegetal o que se traduziu na ocupação de manchas com uma reduzida distância entre elas e na preferência pela ocupação de áreas com elevada densidade de árvores e de sub-coberto. No entanto, a maior contribuição para explicar os padrões de ocupação das áreas de montado pelo viii sacarrabos foi dada pela interacção das variáveis à escala local, da área vital e da paisagem, sugerindo que a conectividade do habitat se expressa pelo efeito cumulativo dos factores às três escalas. Por outro lado, as estradas revelaram-se selectivamente permeáveis à comunidade de carnívoros, parecendo actuar como filtros ao movimento de algumas espécies. Nos 574 km de estradas e auto-estradas monitorizadas detectaram-se em média 47 cadáveres de carnívoros em cada 100 km por ano, tendo sido a raposa, a espécie com maior número de atropelamentos (42%), seguida da fuinha (17%), sacarrabos (12%), texugo (11%) e geneta (11%). A lontra, o toirão e a doninha foram as espécies menos atropeladas. Os cinco carnívoros vítimas de um maior número de atropelamentos, com excepção da geneta, mostraram-se vulneráveis ao tráfego rodoviário em determinados períodos biológicos: a época da alimentação das crias para a raposa e a fuinha, a dispersão para o texugo, e a época do cio para o sacarrabos, o que a longo prazo pode implicar alterações na estrutura das populações e na densidade populacional. Nas auto-estradas, as passagens hidráulicas e inferiores de maiores dimensões, integradas em habitat favorável e com reduzida perturbação humana foram as mais frequentemente utilizadas pelos carnívoros. Em média detectou-se 0,7 carnívoros/passagem/dia, o que significa que estas estruturas contribuem para manutenção da permeabilidade das auto-estradas e deste modo para a conectividade do habitat dos carnívoros, com excepção da doninha, toirão e gato-bravo cuja utilização regular não foi detectada; a aparente reduzida densidade destas espécies na região (que também não foram detectadas nas estações de cheiro) pode, no entanto, contribuir para este resultado. A modelação da distribuição dos atropelamentos de cada espécie revelou que em geral, a presença de habitats adequados à sua ocorrência, a proximidade a curvas e a reduzida perturbação humana foram os factores que mais contribuíram para a mortalidade nas estradas. O modelo de superfície de custo obtido para a fuinha sugere que a probabilidade de ocupação das manchas de montado diminui à medida que aumenta a distância às áreas-fonte, com um incremento máximo de custo nas áreas abertas e distantes de linhas de água, e está positivamente associada à dimensão da mancha. A análise conjunta da composição e configuração da paisagem e da incidência de atropelamentos revelou que a área de estudo ainda parece apresentar um nível de conectividade do montado pouco preocupante para a fuinha, ix mas a incidência de atropelamentos desta espécie nos segmentos de estrada nas áreas contínuas de montado, em particular, naqueles com um maior número de curvas, significa que essas áreas apresentam um maior risco de mortalidade e deste modo, constituem uma barreira aos movimentos da espécie. Os resultados deste estudo indicam que os esforços de conservação devem ser conduzidos com vista à melhoria da qualidade do habitat para a fuinha e o sacarrabos, tendo em conta a conectividade ao nível das áreas vitais. O melhoramento das galerias ripícolas e o aumento das áreas de matos, mostram-se cruciais para a recuperação da qualidade e da conectividade não só do montado mas também da matriz cerealífera. No que diz respeito à minimização dos efeitos negativos da rede viária, o seu planeamento deve ter em conta: 1) o espaçamento entre as passagens de forma a garantir a permeabilidade das estradas a toda a comunidade de carnívoros, 2) a adaptação de passagens com elementos naturais à entrada e no seu interior para promover a utilização das espécies menos familiarizadas com estruturas artificiais, 3) a colocação de redes de malha fina e enterradas em passagens que se encontram em segmentos de estrada com habitat favorável para as espécies e 4) o corte regular de vegetação nas bermas de curvas para aumentar a visibilidade do condutor e do individuo. Os resultados apresentados nesta tese mostram como os carnívoros comuns e de ampla distribuição podem estar ameaçados com as alterações da paisagem induzidas pelo homem se, persistirem estas alterações, e se, não forem tomadas medidas para minimizar os efeitos negativos da fragmentação do montado e da expansão da rede viária. Contudo, mais investigação é necessária para clarificar o estatuto local das espécies menos comuns e isolar os efeitos cumulativos da densidade populacional, demografia e comportamento. Palavras-chave – montado, fragmentação do habitat, permeabilidade das estradas, mortalidade por atropelamento, modelação ecológica, restauração do habitat. x CONTENTS Agradecimentos………………………………………………………………………………………………………… iii Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. v Resumo…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………... vii CHAPTER 1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………. 1 1.1 OVERVIEW………………………………………………………………………………………….. 1 1.1.1 Conceptualizing Human effects on landscapes and species…………..................................... 3 1.1.1.1 Landscape models and patterns……………………………………….…….………………... 3 1.1.1.2 Effects of landscape changes on species…………………………………………..………… 5 1.1.1.3 Habitat connectivity………………………………………………….………………………… 7 1.1.2 History of the Mediterranean landscape…………………………..…………………………. 8 1.1.2.1 Evolution of land-use………………………………………….……………………………….. 9 1.1.2.2 “Montado” - one example of a changing landscape……………..…………………..…….. 10 1.1.3 Carnivores as a focal group……………………………………………….………………….. 11 1.1.3.1 Carnivores as a conservation interest taxa…………………………………...……………... 11 1.1.3.2 Mediterranean carnivore guild……………………………………………….………………. 13 1.1.3.3 Habitat fragmentation and road impacts on Mediterranean carnivores …………..……. 18 1.2 AIMS AND THESIS STRUCTURE…………….…………………………..…………………………... 20 1.3 REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………………………….. 22 CHAPTER 2. STUDY AREA…………………….....…..……………………………………….. 37 2.1 STUDY AREA………………………………………………………………………………………... 39 2.2 REFERENCES………………………………………………………………………………………... 42 CHAPTER 3. RESPONSE OF MEDITERRANEAN CARNIVORES TO “MONTADO” FRAGMENTATION…………………………………………………………………………………….. 44 3.1. PAPER I Scale-dependent effects of Mediterranean landscapes on meso-carnivore occupancy patterns. Grilo C, Cruz M, Bissonette JA, Santos-Reis M. Landscape Ecology (submitted)………………………………… 49 CHAPTER 4. ROAD EFFECTS ON MEDITERRANEAN CARNIVORES………………… 71 4.1. PAPER II Spatial and temporal patterns in Mediterranean carnivore road casualties: consequences for mitigation. Grilo C, Bissonette JA, Santos-Reis M. Biological Conservation (2009) 142 301-313………………. 75 4.2. PAPER III Response of carnivores to existing highway culverts and underpasses: implications for road planning and mitigation. Grilo C., Bissonette JA, Santos-Reis M. Biodiversity and Conservation (2008) 17, 16851699………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 91 CHAPTER 5. MODELLING STRUCTURAL CONNECTIVITY FOR STONE MARTEN IN SOUTHERN PORTUGAL……………………………………………………………….………… 107 5.1 PAPER IV Structural connectivity in a Mediterranean landscape and its consequences for road mortality risk of stone marten. Grilo C, Ascensão F, Bissonette JA, Santos-Reis M. Landscape and Urban Planning (submitted)……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 111 CHAPTER 6. GENERAL DISCUSSION…………………………….……………………………… 131 6.1 OVERVIEW OF MAIN FINDINGS…………..…………………..……………………………………. 133 6.1.1 Are common and wide-ranging carnivores vulnerable to “montado” fragmentation?............................. 133 6.1.2 Do roads have impact on the small- and medium-sized carnivores?......................................................... 135 6.1.3 Is Alentejo structurally connected for carnivore species?.......................................................................... 136 6.2 CHALLENGES AND PRIORITIES IN CARNIVORE CONSERVATION IN ALENTEJO…...……..……….. 138 6.2.1 Improve knowledge on the impacts of human induced changes on carnivores guild……………............ 139 6.2.2 Focus conservation action on restoring habitats…………………………………………………...……. 140 6.2.3 Mitigate the effects of road construction and their associated impacts……………….........................… 142 6.3 REFERENCES………………………………………………………………………………………... 143 xii CHAPTER 1 - GENERAL INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1.1 OVERVIEW There is a growing consensus within the scientific community that the extinction of many species is largely unprecedented and is taking place on a short time scale (e.g., Pimm and Raven 2000, Novacek 2001, Thomas et al. 2004). Human population growth and increasing natural resources demands have lead to landscapes modification with associated habitat destruction and fragmentation for many species. As a consequence, extinction rates have risen to levels rivalling the geologic history of mass extinctions (Chapin III et al. 2000, Pimm et al. 2006) causing widespread changes in the global species distributions and in the ecosystems they belong to (e.g., Soulé 1996, Ceballos and Helrich 2002). Humans have transformed almost 50% of the ice-free land surface, changing forests, prairies and wetlands into agricultural and urban systems in nearly all regions of the world (Daily 1999). Several dramatic examples show that expansion of forestry and agricultural activities, combined with inappropriate management practices, have led to the destruction of huge areas of natural habitats (Skole and Tucker 1993). In tropical forests, the richest habitat for biodiversity, a large part of the original extent may have been lost to deforestation in the last two decades, primarily as a result of agricultural expansion (e.g., Ferraz et al. 2005). Annually tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon ranged from 100 000 to 165 000 km2 in the late 1980s; currently 50 to 70% of this region has been deforested (Skole and Tucker 1993). Similar patterns of deforestation, and its consequent environmental degradation, have occurred in many regions of the world: Europe, south Asia, Australia, temperate North and South America (see Lindenmayer and Fisher 2006). Today the forests of Europe's are some of the most degraded in the world. Although forests extend over some 30% of the Europe’s surface (half the original maximum extent of forest cover), only about 2% is classified as virgin forest or old growth forest remnants (Colchester 1998). In Australia, 1 General Introduction 93% of the western native vegetation was removed and converted to wheat over the past 100 years, much of it disappearing within the last 50 years (Saunders et al. 1993). In United States, during the 18th and 19th centuries much of the native forest and prairie ecosystems of the Northeastern and Midwestern were completely transformed to pasture and cropland (Hessburg and Agee 1993, August et al. 2002). The development and expansion of urban areas and associated infrastructures also reduced natural habitats, resulting in further losses (Forman et al. 2003). Roads occupy a considerable area of land and form extensive longitudinal obstacles. In the European Union, the traffic system has developed into a fine-meshed network with an average ‘grid’ density up to 1.3 km.km-2 (source: European Road statistics 2007). Estimate of the length of the road network is about 6.4 million kilometres in United States (source: U.S. Department of Transportation 2007). This network has fundamentally altered or destroyed millions of hectares of land and water bodies (Trombulak and Frissel 2000). Roads are thought to be particularly strong barriers or filters for many animal species because of dissection of their habitat, mortality caused by animal-vehicle crashes, and avoidance behaviour due to traffic volume (see reviews in Forman and Alexander 1998, Trombulak and Frissel 2000, Forman et al. 2003). These species include a wide variety of taxa such as anuran (e.g., Eigenbrod et al. 2008), turtles (e.g., Beaudry et al. 2008), birds (e.g., Erritzoe et al. 2003), European hares (Roedenbeck and Voser 2008), badgers (Clarke et al. 1998), bobcats and coyotes (Riley et al. 2006), Iberian lynx (Ferreras et al. 1992), Florida panther (Taylor et al. 2002), wolves (Paquet 1993) and bighorn sheep (Epps et al. 2005). Not surprisingly, intervention by humans is required for any possibility of shortterm recovery and maintenance of the biota. Issues associated with landscape changes by humans have rapidly become a central issue in conservation policy (Donald et al. 2007, Fontaine, et al. 2007, Gaston et al. 2008), as evidenced by the signing and ratification of international conventions (e.g., Bern Convention (1982), Habitat directive 92/43/EEC) and the development of regulatory actions (e.g., Iberian lynx Action Plan Delibes et al. 2000) aimed to mitigate human impacts on biodiversity. Meanwhile, those impacts and associated mitigations are becoming a major focus of research in conservation biology, namely in significant and emerging fields such as landscape and road ecology (e.g., Wilcox and Murphy 1985, Malanson and Cramer 1999, Forman et al. 2 General Introduction 2003, Turner et al. 2003, Lindenmayer and Fisher 2006). Nevertheless, many current recovery efforts still have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and the magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity. This is particularly true in Europe, and has prevented the accomplishment of the 2010 target of decreasing or at least halting the loss of biodiversity (Countdown 2010 Initiative - http://www.countdown2010.net). 1.1.1 CONCEPTUALIZING HUMAN EFFECTS ON LANDSCAPES AND SPECIES 1.1.1.1 Landscape models and patterns Various theories and landscape models make predictions to determine and understand how landscape alteration affects organisms. For example, MacArthur and Wilson (1967) developed the island biogeography theory (IBT) to explain how distance and size combine to regulate the balance between immigration and extinction in island populations. This theory suggests that fragmented ecosystems have lower species richness per unit of area compared with contiguous habitats. Further, species survival is dependent on fragment size and isolation. The limitations of the IBT become obvious when the theory fails to consider crucial issues including: 1) how community composition in fragments changes over time, 2) which species are most vulnerable to fragmentation, 3) what are the effects of barriers, edges, and landscape heterogeneity and fragmentation in ecosystem functioning, and 4) what is the role of anthropogenic changes on biodiversity (Brown and Lomolino 2000, Laurance 2008). Recent studies (e.g., Brotons et al. 2003) have provided new insights in fragmentation studies (Forman and Godron 1986, McIntyre and Barret 1992). For example, the matrix is not necessarily hostile to native species as assumed by the IBT (McIntyre and Barrett 1992). Forman (1995) argued that functional flows and movements through the landscape are determined by the arrangement and structural pattern of three landscape components (patches, corridors and matrix) and change over time (patch-corridor-matrix model). Patches are relatively homogeneous non-linear areas that differ from the surroundings; they are dynamic and occur on a variety of spatial and temporal scales according to species perception (Wiens 1976, Wiens and Milne 1989). Small patches may serve as stepping stones for species dispersal or re-colonization, providing heterogeneity in the 3 General Introduction matrix (Forman 1995). Corridors are non-matrix strips that connect two or more patches. As a consequence of their form and context, structural corridors may function as habitat, dispersal conduits, or even barriers. The matrix is the most extensive and most connected landscape element type, and therefore plays the dominant role in the functioning of the landscape (Forman and Godron 1986, Lindenmayer and Fisher 2006). The variegation model is a modification of the IBT and patch-corridor-matrix models, according to which the landscapes formerly dominated by the original habitats have been variously modified rather than extensively destroyed. The result is in the differential filtration of species across the elements of the landscape (McIntyre and Barret 1992). The matrix ceases to be an impermeable barrier. According to Forman (1995, see also Lindenmayer and Fisher 2006), anthropogenic changes have modified landscapes around the world to varying patterns including: 1) perforation (the process of making ‘holes’ in a landscape, e.g., mine sites in remote areas, disturbance patches in a remnant forest), 2) dissection (the subdivision of an area, e.g., by roads, power lines), 3) fragmentation (the changing of a contiguous landscape into patches, e.g., remnant vegetation in grazing lands), 4) shrinkage (a decrease in size, e.g., patch size reduction due to realignment of fences around pastures), and 5) attrition (the disappearance of landscape patches, e.g., lowest productivity patches cleared in heavily exploited landscapes). McIntyre and Hobbs (1999) suggested another classification of spatial patterns resulting from humaninduced landscape changes that include a temporal component. As the human modification increases and habitat amount decreases, landscapes can be intact, variegated, fragmented or relictual, depending on the extent (90%, 60-90%, 10-60% or 10% of cover, respectively) of habitat destruction and associated land uses. These classes represent segments along a continuum of destruction of a previously continuous habitat matrix. In intact and variegated landscapes, habitat still forms the matrix, whereas in fragmented landscapes the matrix is comprised of altered habitat (e.g., Dunning et al. 1995). Both classifications recognize that landscape changes often result in a decrease in the average size of the remaining vegetation patches, an increase in the average distance between these patches, and, as a consequence, a decrease in landscape connectivity between patches (Fahrig 2003). 4 General Introduction 1.1.1.2 Effects of landscape changes on species Research shows that species respond strongly to the different spatial patterns created by different kinds of landscape change (Hames et al. 2001), and responses may not be in accordance with human visual perception of the landscape pattern. The key process that is associated with landscape change is habitat loss and it is the primary driver of biodiversity decline (Fahrig and Merriam 1985, Pimm and Askins 1995). In general, habitat loss is typically accompanied with habitat degradation, subdivision, and isolation, meaning limitation on food, shelter, and space availability, all fundamental to species survival. This can lead to smaller local populations, which then face a greater risk of extinction due to demographic or environmental stochastic events (Belovsky et al. 1994, Bascompte et al. 2002, Donovan and Flather 2002). Fragmentation may also have significant consequences for population genetic structure. Distance and physical barriers may reduce exchanges of individuals, and therefore, decrease the gene flow (Wright 1943, Hedrick and Gilpin 1996, Gerlach and Musolf 2000, Hale et al. 2001). Loss of genetic variation will decrease the ability of individuals to respond to changing environmental conditions and may even result in genetic fixation of deleterious alleles as well inbreeding in local populations that can lead to reduced individual longevity and fecundity (Frankham et al. 2002). Taken together, the environmental, demographic, and genetic effects of habitat fragmentation can accelerate the decline and extinction of populations and species (Gilpin and Soulé 1986). In a recent review, Fahrig (2003) demonstrated that the habitat fragmentation impacts community structure including the strength of species interactions, such as competition, predation, parasitism, herbivory (e.g., Tilman et al. 1994 Taylor and Merriam 1995, Chapin III 2000, Hames et al. 2001, Lin et al. 2005, Pakkala et al. 2006), patterns of dispersal (e.g., Cale 2003) and trophic chain length in food webs (e.g., Kareiva 1987, Ewers and Didham 2006), as well as population distribution and abundance (e.g., Mbora and Meikle 2004), sociality (e.g., Wolff 1999), breeding success (e.g., Kurki et al. 2000, Donovan and Flather 2002, Horn et al. 2005), foraging success (e.g., Mahan and Yahner 1999, Ewers and Didham 2006) and genetic diversity (e.g., Banks et al. 2005). Often there is a threshold below which the population cannot sustain itself (extinction threshold). For example, small populations will be at a higher risk of extinction due to stochastic events; similar risks hold for species that are 5 General Introduction habitat specialist, species at limits of their geographic range or species with low mobility or dispersal power (e.g., Swihart et al. 2003). Complex biological processes, e.g.; reproductive potential, annual survival, sociality, trophic position and species interactions may also increase sensitivity to landscape change (Henle et al. 2004). Nevertheless, the critical values of the landscape changes affecting species persistence have been poorly studied and are a controversial issue. For example, Andrén (1994) found significant effects of fragmentation for birds and mammals in approximately 2030% of vegetation cover, while Bissonette et al. (1997) found that after ~30% logging on intact forest, American marten populations declined in Newfoundland. However, With and King (1999) argued that the level extinction threshold varied from 5 to 90% of habitat loss in the landscape, depending on both species response to fragmentation and spatial arrangement of the remaining habitat. Moreover, the scale of analysis also plays an important role in understanding the organism’s responses to landscape structure (e.g., Gehring and Swihart 2003, Holland et al. 2004, Swihart et al. 2006). Differences in scales at which different species perceive landscape are largely dictated by physiological and morphological features such as body size, mobility, and behavioural characteristics (e.g., Morris 1992). As a consequence, several studies highlight the need to evaluate factors simultaneously at different scales as well the interactions between them (e.g., Zabala et al. 2005, AnzuresDadda and Manson 2007). For instance, a multiple scale study of temperate zone rodents (Morris 1987) revealed that microhabitat plays a small role and large scale efforts are needed to enhance rodent density. In contrast, Cushman and McGarigal (2004) found that micro-scale features were better predictors of Oregon Coast Range bird community structure than patch- or landscape-level features. Hence, multiple scale analysis can have major implications in the findings of fragmentation studies and enhance the effectiveness of conservation strategies (Bissonette and Storch 2002); otherwise, management actions implemented to ameliorate the negative effects of fragmentation might be less effective or fail (Orrock et al. 2000, Gehring and Swihart 2003). 6 General Introduction 1.1.1.3 Habitat Connectivity As a natural consequence of the concern about habitat fragmentation, the maintenance and establishment of connectivity is a relatively recent concept in landscape change and planning analyses (Fahrig and Merriam 1985, Saunders et al. 1991, Chetkiewicz et al. 2006). Because connectivity facilitates biological fluxes such as animal dispersal, genetic flow and multiple other ecological functions, it has become a key conservation issue to mitigate the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation (Hale et al. 2001, Moilanen and Nieminen 2002, Goodwin and Fahrig 2002). Bennett (1999) considered two kinds of connectivity: 1) structural - the spatial arrangement of different types of habitat such as density and complexity of corridors, distance between patches and inter-habitat matrix permeability, and 2) functional (or behavioural) - the interaction between behavioural response of individuals, species, or ecological processes and the physical structure of the landscape. Connectivity depends not only on the spatial pattern of the landscape elements, but also on the interactions between this pattern and the biological characteristics of the species such as, their ability to use and move through the landscape and their risk of mortality in different landscape elements (Uezu et al. 2005, FitzGibbon et al. 2007). The last definition emphasizes that the type, composition and configuration of habitat patches on the landscape influence movement, and ultimately population dynamics and community structure (Taylor et al. 2006, Fahrig 2007). Further, structurally connected landscapes may be functionally connected for some species and not for others (e.g., Uezu et al. 2005). One example is the study reported by Wiegand et al. (2005) showing that functionally connected landscapes are represented by abundant dispersal habitat and sufficiently large dispersal potential despite the level of fragmentation. Increasing knowledge on the species ecology combined with the use of new technologies (e.g., geographic information systems) and analytical tools (e.g., cost surface analysis) has enabled the development of spatially explicit models to understand how organisms interact with landscape pattern (e.g., Hunter et al. 2003, Jepsen et al. 2005, Drielsma et al. 2007, Larue and Nielsen 2008, Rodriguez-Freire and Crecente-Mesada 2008). One of the most widely used methods is the cost surface analysis (CSA), which links animal behaviour and landscape structure by modelling how individuals of a species perceive the permeability of a landscape (e.g., Ferreras et 7 General Introduction al. 2001). The method assumes variable travel costs for different features of the landscape (e.g., LaRue and Nielsen 2008). The cost of each landscape element reflects the degree to which that element facilitates or impedes movements of the studied species (Adriaensen et al. 2003). Data to define the cost values are based on the location and characteristics of each landscape element and on the biological aspects of the species being evaluated, namely the movement ability in the landscape elements (Baguette and Dyck 2007). With no prior information on species movement, studies used cost surface simulations with different combinations of cost values (e.g., Walters 2007) or weight the cost of each landscape element by using habitat suitability models (e.g., Wang et al. 2008). The habitat suitability map gives the probability for each patch to be used by a given species and therefore, provides information to generate cost layers for CSA. Recently, researchers went further by validating the CSA with population- or individual-based genetic analysis to assess functional landscape connectivity (e.g., Walker et al. 2007, Wang et al. 2008). Habitat connectivity is also a growing concern in roaded landscapes (Iuell et al. 2003). In fact, even in well structurally connected areas, the incidence of road-kills or the avoidance effect of roads may bisect suitable areas that became gradually more fragmented (Forman et al. 2003). Hence, the connectivity assessment needs to be associated with road network characteristics (e.g., Eigenbrod et al. 2008). A growing number of monitoring surveys are providing new and important insights on the relationship between landscape permeability and individual movements (e.g., Yanes et al. 1995, Clevenger et al. 2001, Ramp et al. 2005, Riley et al. 2006). Accurate information on the spatial patterns of mortality and on the use of road crossing structures by fauna may help in the assessment of road permeability, and therefore, help to identify adequate mitigation measures to maximize connectivity across roads to wildlife. 1.1.2 HISTORY OF THE MEDITERRANEAN LANDSCAPE Mediterranean ecosystems have been intensively managed by human populations (Naveh 1993, Blondel and Aronson 1999). Although shaped by human activity and maintained by centuries of traditional practices of land use, Mediterranean ecosystems are now vulnerable to degradation and species loss due to a range of human activities associated with agriculture intensification, recreation, forestry, 8 General Introduction urbanization, industrialization, resource exploitation and introduction of exotic species (Allen 2003, Blondel 2006, Vogiatzakis et al. 2006). The conservation value of the Mediterranean basin is recognized worldwide (e.g., Olson and Dinnerstein 1998, Atauri and Lucio 2001), and although occupying only 1.2% of the Earth’s surface (Di Castri, 1981) represents one of the 25 world terrestrial biodiversity hotspots (Myers et al. 2000) as a result of an exceptionally high floristic richness and a high proportion of endemic species (~50%). The extremely complex geological and geomorphological history and the climatic variations that occur within the Mediterranean Basin account for the remarkable variety of species and habitats (Blondel and Aranson 1999). 1.1.2.1 Evolution of land-use The environmental history of the Mediterranean region is described in detail by Allen (2003). Briefly, the Mediterranean region has been characterized by shifts in vegetation communities over the last three million years. Higher latitudes experienced major advances of ice sheets and glaciers interspersed with warm interglacial stages; meanwhile Mediterranean Basin suffered deep falling and rising temperatures on a similar cyclical basis (Mannion 2008), with a continual reassembly of the vegetation cover as temperatures changed. Equally, Meditterranean landscapes have experienced a long and intense history of human influence (Blondel 2006). According to Naveh and Dan (1973) humans have exerted effects on Mediterranean ecosystems for over 50 000 years, but the major impact began about c. 10 000 years ago when modern humans (Homo sapiens sapiens) colonized the region and began the domestication of plants and animals. By far the most obvious consequence of humans in the Mediterranean Basin was forest destruction (Blondel and Aranson 1999). Quézel and Médail (2003) estimate that no more than 15% of the pristine Mediterranean forest vegetation remains today, the remaining being in a more or less advanced stages of degradation or deforestation. Over time the Mediterranean Basin experienced a progressive replacement of deciduous broad-leaved forests by evergreen sclerophyllous oak forests (Quercus sp.) and scrublands, which increased patchiness, and affected both the distribution of populations and their genetic diversity. This co-evolution shaped the interactions 9 General Introduction between the ecosystems and humans, through constantly evolving land use practices and their associated intermediate disturbance regimes due to agriculture and grazing (Blondel 2006). Today, the dominant vegetation community is the evergreen sclerophyllos shrubland, comprised by evergreen oaks, olives (Olea europaea) shrubs (Ceratonia sp., Pistacia sp., Cistus sp.) and diverse herbaceous plants (Allen 2003) which express the environmental gradients, such as moisture availability, nutrient availability, and temperature (Vogiatzakis et al. 2006). 1.1.2.2 “Montado” - one example of a changing landscape Nowadays, a highly specific agro-silvo-pastoral system named “montado” in Portugal and “dehesa” in Spain dominates the landscape of the Iberian Peninsula (Schnabel and Ferreira 2004). In the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, this system is characterised by the presence of a savannah-like open tree layer, mainly dominated by Mediterranean evergreen oaks – cork oak (Quercus suber) and holm oak (Q. ilex) – and to a lesser extent by the deciduous Q. pyrenaica and Q. faginea associated with livestocking and cultivation. Pinto-Correia (1993) described the “montado” as an almost closed system: trees furnish cork and wood, as well shelter and fruits, which constitutes an important complement to the diet of animals; and grazing animals provide soil fertilization and contribute to field clearance. Additionally, this traditional land use system shows an interesting balance between exploitation and conservation of biodiversity. It is characterized by a mosaic of crops, grasslands, scrublands and scattered trees that furnish a large diversity of products and ecological conditions to sustain a large number of wildlife species (e.g., Santos-Reis et al. 2004, Blondel 2006, Rosalino et al. 2008). Nevertheless, in last few decades the Mediterranean rural landscape is undergoing major changes. As rural economies improve, additional anthropogenic activity is impacting biological diversity (Plieninger 2003, Vogiatzakis et al. 2006). In Portugal, during what was known as the "Wheat Campaign" in the first half of the 20th century, the “montado” forests were reduced, and mechanization and fertilization were intensified to increase wheat production. As a result, large areas of forest/shrubby cover were cleared, soil erosion increased, the fragile relationships of the “montado” system were disrupted, and resources deteriorated (Pinto Correia 1993). As a 10 General Introduction consequence, fields were abandoned; the land no longer had adequate production or regeneration potential. Recently, as a result of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy the tendency to abandon less productive lands accelerated and the exploitation of the more profitable ones was intensified (Gómez-Limón and Fernadez 1999). In the abandoned areas, cultivation and often grazing disappeared and the density of undercover vegetation increased, resulting in the development of the maquis, a new type of thick scrubby evergreen underbrush. This represented the new wilderness areas, providing high cover and shelter for some fauna, especially forestdwelling species (Mangas et al. 2008), but resulted in habitat reduction for species requiring open habitats. However, the lack of light and space led gradually to the almost total suppression of the herbaceous understorey in these new maquis areas (Naveh 1993), in turn are the source food for many prey species in which carnivores and birds of prey depend (Goméz-Limón and Fernandez 1999). Current land use pattern and the continuing changes seen today are the result of a long and ever changing history of political influence and economic factors that are related to national and international policies. Consequently, the current situation offers a series of opportunities for “montado” conservation and should receive considerable attention from scientists, land managers, and policy makers. A detail analysis of species requirements and the scale at which they perceive the landscape changes is critical in helping to define an integrated “montado” management for the maintenance of its conservation value. 1.1.3 CARNIVORES AS A FOCAL GROUP 1.1.3.1 Carnivores as a conservation interest taxa Many carnivores have suffered dramatic declines over the past few hundred years (e.g., Ceballos and Ehrlich 2002, Rodriguez and Delibes 2003, Naves et al. 2003). Habitat loss, depletion of their prey, exploitation for fur, and direct human persecution have all contributed to the past carnivore declines (Woodroffe 2001). Today, persecution and loss of prey are the most immediate short-term threats to carnivores, but continued land conversion and the recent additional mortality caused by traffic are 11 General Introduction probably the greatest long-term threat to their persistence (Ginsberg 2001, Kerley et al. 2002, Burkey and Reed 2006). Fortunately, the recent recognition of the ecological importance of top predators and of the lack of information to support recovery strategies has led to increased concern over the effects of the human-induced changes on them (Miller et al. 2001, Sergio et al. 2008). The removal of a top carnivore from an ecosystem can have an impact on the relative abundance of prey species and within the guild (e.g., Palomares et al. 1996, Delibes et al. 2008), causing effects that cascade down a food chain to plants, affecting the interactions among species as well as the structure of ecological communities, and altering basic ecosystem processes (e.g., Estes and Palmisano, 1974; Crooks and Soulé 1999, Duffy et al., 2007, Delibes-Mateus et al. 2008). One example is the decline of the cougar (Puma concolor) in Zion Canyon (Utah, USA) that led to higher mule deer densities, higher browsing intensities, reduced recruitment of riparian cottonwood trees, increased bank erosion and reductions in both terrestrial and aquatic species abundance (Ripple and Beschta 2006). Another relevant example of their importance is embodied in the “mesopredator release” hypothesis, according to which the removal of a top predator causes an increase in meso-predators with detrimental effects on prey populations (e.g., Gehrt and Prange 2006). In Doñana National Park (Spain), Palomares et al. (1998) reported that Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) densities were directly controlled by Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus); these authors also found that in areas without Iberian lynx, mongooses took up to 10 times more European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) than in areas with lynxes where rabbits on average were three times more abundant. In general, carnivores are especially and particularly vulnerable to threatening processes, namely changes in landscape composition and patterns and also road network expansion (Sunquist and Sunquist 2001). Many predators occupy small geographic ranges, have small populations, and occur in low population densities. Most show low reproductive output and relatively long gestation length and show territorial behaviour. Others have larger home ranges and do not tolerate large urban areas or high human activity (Cardillo et al. 2004). One example of extreme range contraction over the last few is the Iberian lynx. There is evidence indicating a continuous decline due to severe depletion of its primary prey (European rabbit) by diseases and over-hunting (Rodriguez and Delibes 1992). Other human activities have 12 General Introduction further compounded the problems of prey scarcity. Reduction and fragmentation of the Mediterranean scrublands on which the lynx and its prey depend have also negatively impacted the species (Rodriguez and Delibes 1992). Nowadays, declining lynx populations persist under serious human pressure, including forestation with non-native species and scrub clearance schemes, direct persecution, road building, dam construction, and urbanization (Fernandes 2000, Rodriguez and Delibes 2004, Santos et al. 2007). Growing vehicle traffic volume is also responsible for additional mortality on lynx; each year juveniles die when they disperse and search for new areas; this has been documented particularly in the surroundings of Doñana National Park (Ferreras et al. 1992). In this context, reducing mortality and the risk of extinction for Iberian lynx involves the conservation and improvement of habitat connectivity and the removal of human-caused mortality (Ferreras et al. 2001, Palomares 2001). Many studies have reported that single species are often poor indicators of habitat quality or community level biodiversity (e.g., Chase et al. 2000). While studies of this type are helpful for the conservation of specific species, they tend to contribute little to our understanding of the collective habitat relationships of a community (Manley et al. 2004). Since not all carnivores respond in the same way to landscape pattern due to a wide range of morphological, ecological and behavioural adaptations (Gittleman 1989, Carroll et al. 2001, Crooks 2002, Virgós et al. 2002, Mortelliti and Boitani 2008), carnivores are expected to show marked differences in their response to landscape changes. Hence, a multi-species approach to address questions related to human landscape disturbance is needed to provide important key insights to create a cohesive strategy to ensure the coexistence of multiple species. 1.1.3.3 Mediterranean carnivore guild In the Mediterrenean Basin, there is a high and diverse predator community comprised of 23 small-, intermediate- and large-sized carnivores species, most native (golden jackal Canis aureus, wolf Canis lupus, red fox Vulpes vulpes, brown bear Ursus arctos, stoat Mustela erminea, steppe polecat Mustela eversmanii, European mink Mustela lutreola, weasel Mustela nivalis, Western polecat Mustela putorius, marbled polecat Vormela perergusna, stone marten Martes foina, pine marten Martes martes, Eurasian badger Meles meles, Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, European wildcat Felis silvestris, Lynx 13 General Introduction Lynx lynx, Iberian lynx) and a few exotic (racoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides, racoon Procyon lotor, American mink Mustela vison, common genet Genetta genetta, small Indian mongoose Herpestes javanicus, Egyptian mongoose, Indian grey mongoose Herpestes edwardsi) (Mitchell-Jones et al. 1999). With the exception of the wolf, the European mink, the marbled and the Western polecats, the Eurasian otter and the Iberian lynx, the remaining species are not considered threatened and are classed as of ‘Least Concern’ (IUCN 2008 Red List http://www.iucnredlist.org). These carnivores exhibit different life-history characteristics and strategies including habitat generalists and specialists, opportunistic vs. specialist foragers, as well as solitary and group-living species. Among solitary living carnivores, the red fox is the most widespread, habitat and food generalist carnivore living in the Mediterranean (Mitchell-Jones et al. 1999). It has a high ecological resilience due to its mobility and reproductive capacity (Blanco 1998, Piñero 2001). The spatial behaviour of red foxes shows great flexibility; they are found in a great variety of habitats that provide food and cover (Fedriani 1996, Piñero 2002). As opportunistic predators, red foxes consume a wide variety of food resources and feed according to the availability of prey (Carvalho and Gomes 2001, Cavallini and Lovari 1991, Delibes-Mateos et al. 2008). Stoats and weasels are also widespread, although the first is restricted to the northern latitudes (Blanco 1998, Mitchell-Jones et al. 1999). Stoats show a preference for areas with high prey density and are stereotypic in their habitat selection (e.g., Aunapuu and Oksanen 2003), while weasels were more habitat generalists. Nevertheless, it is believed that habitat quality and selection for weasels is driven by the abundance and distribution of prey and this largely influences their demography with population fluctuations that in some cases may lead to almost local extinctions (Santos-Reis 1989, Klemola 1999). Although they have a shared preference for rodents (Elmeros 2006), their use of alternative preys allows stoats to coexist with weasels, which are more efficient predators of rodents (Brandt and Lambin 2005, Hellstedt et al. 2006). 14 General Introduction The steppe polecat is represented in Europe by two restricted populations divided by the Carpathian mountains. They show a preference for steppes, in particular dry grasslands as well as cultivated fields and population density depends strongly on prey (primarily small mammals) availability (e.g., Lanszki and Heltai 2007). Similarly, marbled polecats are generally found in the dryer areas and grasslands of south-eastern Europe, but they are threatened mainly due to habitat destruction through extensive cultivation, hunting and reduction of available prey (Ben-David 1991, Gorsuch and Larivière 2005). The Western Polecat show association with wetlands (e.g., Mestre et al. 2007) where they find high diversity and availability of prey (e.g., rodents, amphibians and crayfish), although it is a wide ranging species that uses a high diversity of land uses with cover (Virgós 2003, Zabala et al. 2005). Also showing a strong association with water bodies is the European mink, a semi-aquatic species that is mainly found along small and medium sized rivers and seldom leaves the corridor of the riparian forest and their resting places above ground (under herbs or bushes) or in cavities between tree roots, mainly in flooded environments (Palazon and Ruiz-Olmo 1998, Lodé et al. 2001, Fournier et al. 2007). It is endemic in Europe and has suffered from a major decline since mid-19th century becoming extinct in most European countries. The Eurasian otter is a unique water-obligate species with distribution is restricted to aquatic environments, from coastal waters, to freshwater streams and dams with available shelter (Trindade et al. 1998, Barbosa et al. 2003); although the species underwent a widespread decline during the 20th century, there are evidences of recovery in Europe (Mitchell-Jones et al. 1999); its. Water quality and human density were considered to be relevant causes of changes in otter distribution (e.g., Cortés et al. 1998). Brown bear and lynxes (except the Iberian lynx as described in chapter 1.1.3.1) are now restricted to mountain ranges where they find forest cover and low human presence (e.g., Breitenmoser et al. 2000, Klober and Adamic 2000). Human-caused mortality and habitat destruction are the main factors driving the decline of their populations. Stone martens, pine martens, European wildcats are wide-ranging and forest-dwelling species (e.g., Blanco 1998, Santos-Reis & Petrucci-Fonseca 1999, SantosReis et al. 2004), that show sensitivity to forest fragmentation in different degrees. 15 General Introduction European wildcats suffered a significant decline mainly due to habitat destruction, combined with prey decline (mostly rabbits in the south), human persecution and, to a small extent, hybridization with feral cats (Stahl and Artois 1991, Oliveira et al. 2007). Wildcats are found in a scrub–pastureland mosaic landscape with abundant watercourses and prey and high shrub cover at a microhabitat scale in the Mediterranean region (Lozano et al. 2003). The wildcat is a facultative specialist; rabbits are preferred when present, but rodents constitute most of their diet when rabbits are scarce or absent (Moleón and Gil-Sanchez 2003, Lozano et al. 2006, Sarmento 1996). Similarly, stone and pine martens are generalists predators distributed across much of Europe and habitat selection depends on prey availability and cover (e.g., Clevenger 1994, Virgós and Garcia 2002, Santos-Reis et al. 2004, Mortelliti and Boitani 2008), but a combination of factors, such as persecution, trapping, and habitat loss have led to sharp declines in the pine marten numbers and range. Although habitat and food generalist, the golden jackal is, also, particularly tolerant of dry habitats and has a mixed social organization (mated pair but sometimes develop social group of adult offspring of both sexes). Once widespread the European population declined dramatically over the first half of the 20th century, due to habitat fragmentation and intensive hunting pressure. Thanks to effective conservation efforts, the density of the Balkan population increased at the end of the last century, especially in Bulgaria and Greece (Giannatos 2004). Another canid, the wolf, is a truly social species. In southern Europe, due to intensive direct persecution and major habitat changes, particularly in forest cover and natural prey availability (e.g., roe deer Capreolus capreolus, red deer Cervus elaphus), they are nowadays restricted to mountain areas (e.g. Blanco and Cortés 2002, Pimenta et al. 2005). Eurasian badgers also live in social groups (e.g., Revilla and Palomares 2005). The availability of suitable sites for setts is the primary limiting habitat factor for Eurasian badgers in “montado” landscapes (Rosalino et al. 2005). In Southern Portugal, Rosalino et al. (2008) also reported that oak woodland with a brushy understorey was the most used habitat at local (1 km2) and landscape scales (100 km2). A wish of new fur animal or the need for biological control of pest animal are the most common reasons behind introductions of carnivores in the Mediterranean basin (Kauhala 1996). The introduction and spread of the exotic species is a problem to 16 General Introduction the conservation of native species, because exotic compete with them and may limit their ability to persist in humanized landscapes. The raccoon dog is an East Asian species introduced into the European part of the former USSR in the first half of the 20th century because it was considered a valuable fur animal, whereas the North American raccoon, was introduced in the same period in Germany (Mitchell-Jones et al. 1999). Both species are habitat and feeding generalists but prefer the proximity of water and are often found along lakes and streams (Sutor 2008). The American mink is native to north America and was introduced by escapes from fur farms; it is a semi-aquatic and generalist predator and is still spreading and colonising new areas (e.g., Melero et al. 2007). The numbers of American minks and raccoon dogs increased rapidly and today are widely distributed in Europe. Introductions of mongooses and genet, originally from Africa, are traced to historic times when they were brought by Romans as domestic animals to help in eliminating rodents and snakes in anthropic settlements (Riquelme-Cantal et al. 2008). The Egyptian mongoose is still expanding towards north (Borralho et al. 1996). They forage in group showing a wide food spectrum diet that includes rabbits, rodents, birds, reptiles and carrion (Palomares 1993, Zapata et al., 2007). Two other mongooses originally found across Southeast Asia, the small Indian mongoose and the Indian grey mongoose (both solitary species), have being recently introduced (1920’s and 1930’s, respectively) in former Yugoslavia and Italy, respectively (Macdonald and Barret 1993). Because of their diurnal character and human persecution, mongooses avoid open areas and select abundant vegetation cover areas with high density of prey and shelter (e.g., Palomares and Delibes 1993). As in the case of Egyptian mongoose, genets were introduced in historical times (RiquelmeCantal et al. 2008); they are generalist foragers and habitat selection also depends on cover (Rosalino and Santos-Reis 2002, Galantinho and Mira 2008). In the southwestern Europe, genets overlap extensively with stone martens in their distribution ranges and resource preferences (Santos-Reis et al. 2004), although genets are associated with warmer areas and therefore, mostly found in lower altitudes (Virgós et al. 2001). The tolerance between the species is however greater than between conspecifics and there is no evidence of intensive exploitation of the same key resources (Santos-Reis et al. 2004, Barrientos and Virgós 2006). Although the majority of carnivores are widespread in Mediterranean Europe, some occur in small and fragmented populations (e.g., brown bear, wildcat), or others 17 General Introduction in low densities (e.g., wildcat) or are specialized in habitat (e.g., pine marten) and most live in low densities due to higher spatial requirements and dependence of fluctuating resources (e.g., Sunquist and Sunquist 2001, Loureiro et al. in press). The habitat loss and fragmentation are therefore major causes of carnivore population decline, and hence, addressing the vulnerability of the most common and wide-ranging species in the face of growing human pressure that causes loss of landscapes connectivity is a critical need. 1.1.3.2 Habitat fragmentation and road impacts on Mediterranean carnivores Several studies have demonstrated the impact of landscape pattern and composition on carnivores’ distribution or abundance in Mediterranean landscapes (e.g., Virgós 2001, Virgós 2002, Virgós and Garcia 2002, Virgós et al. 2002, Zabala et al. 2005, Galantinho and Mira 2008, Mortelliti and Boitani 2008). In those studies, patch use was affected by vegetation type, size, isolation, and geographic location, at different scale extents ranging from local (e.g., shelter, refuge and prey availability, inter-specific competition) to regional (e.g., distance between patches, matrix composition). Virgós et al. (2002) in North and Central Spain reported that five carnivore species (red fox, stone marten, Eurasian badger, common genet and European wildcat) responded more favorably to fragments larger than 300ha than to smaller fragments but their sensitivity varied among the species: Eurasian badger and European wildcat seemed to have a clear response to area reduction and red fox was the species least affected by fragment size. In a different analysis, Virgós and Garcia (2002) documented that both patch size and isolation affected the stone marten distribution. Additionally, Mortelliti and Boitani (2008) showed that when resource amount was increased, suitability of smaller and isolated patches increased for stone marten. Equally, there is evidence of carnivore vulnerability to road network expansions; both mortality and barrier effects were reported (Ferreras et al. 1992, Forman et al. 2003, Iuell et al. 2003). In Portugal, vehicle collisions accounted for 40% of Iberian wolf mortality (Pimenta et al. 2005) and accounts for ~10% of the endangered Iberian wolf population in the southern Douro river area (Petrucci-Fonseca 1990, Grilo 18 General Introduction et al. 2004). Ferreras et al. (1992) reported that road-kills accounted for 17% of mortality of Iberian lynx in Southern Spain; with increases in road expansion and traffic intensity, accidental deaths caused by vehicles are expected to increase the lynx mortality on the road. In Britain, traffic is believed to kill more than 40% of the estimated adult Eurasian badger population annually (Clarke et al. 1998). Over the past decades, a growing number of studies have described small- and medium-sized carnivore road mortality in Portugal but most data is just available in unpublished reports or was presented in scientific meetings, and are restricted in time and space, or focus on a few species (e.g., Marques 1994, Franco 2000, Ascensão 2001, Ascensão 2005, Ascensão and Mira 2005, Petronilho and Dias 2005). Nevertheless, a large number of road mortality studies worldwide have already stressed the importance of several temporal (e.g., Orlowski and Nowak 2006) and spatial descriptors (e.g., Clevenger et al. 2003, Malo et al. 2004, Ramp et al. 2005) to explain road mortality rates. Differences in species behavior and activity patterns, related to biological periods, account for temporal variations in road-kills (e.g., Saeki and Macdonald 2004) while population density, habitat and landscape structure, species biology, as well as road and traffic characteristics, are the descriptors that seem to influence the spatial pattern of mortality (Clevenger et al. 2003, Malo et al. 2004), suggesting that not all carnivores respond equally to these factors. Although road mortality is the most visible impact, less is known about the extent of the barrier effect caused by road avoidance (McLellan and Shackleton 1988, Lovallo and Anderson 1996, Whittington et al. 2004, Alexander et al. 2005; Jaeger et al. 2005). In a few mammal species (e.g., desert bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis nelsoni, bobcat Lynx rufus and coyote Canis latrans), there is evidence that highways have blocked movement of individuals between road sides affecting reproductive ability and accelerating the loss of genetic diversity (Epps et al. 2005, Riley et al. 2006, Strasburg 2006). In the Iberian Peninsula, the knowledge of barrier effect of roads on carnivores is scarce and controversial; road density impacted fox and stone marten movements (Blanco 1988, Lopéz-Martin et al. 1997) resulting in home-range changes, but in contrast, Blanco et al (2005), suggest that highways were not an important barrier for wolves in North-Central Spain. This evidence was not confirmed over an 18 km highway section that transverse the Iberian wolf population living south to Douro river 19 General Introduction (Roque et al. 2005): only once over five months a wolf used one of the 10 under- and overpasses surveyed. Existing crossing structures under and over roads and highways have been extensively studied to evaluate their effectiveness in restoring landscape permeability for some small and medium-sized carnivores (e.g., Yanes et al. 1995, Rosell et al. 1997, Rodríguez et al. 1997, Mata et al. 2005, Ascensão and Mira 2007, Mata et al. 2008). All studies documented that carnivores focused their crossing activity in passages that varied in structure and surrounding habitat characteristics, road-related attributes, human disturbance levels, and differences in use may be related with life-traits and behavioral patterns (e.g., Rodriguez et al. 1997, Mata et al. 2005, Ascensão and Mira 2007, Mata et al. 2008). However, there is also little consensus on whether the type of passage significantly influences crossing rates. Rosell et al. (1997) found no significant differences related to size of passage and Mata et al. (2005) reported that the majority of carnivores preferred larger structures. Yanes et al. (1997) and Ascensão and Mira (2007), however, showed evidences of carnivore species using small culverts regularly. 2. AIMS AND THESIS STRUCTURE Although the majority of carnivores inhabiting southern Portugal are of no conservation concern, the recent increase in human presence in the area poses new threats that should be evaluated in order to minimize those effects and promote longterm populations viability. Many relevant questions related with human-induced changes on the carnivore guild remain unanswered, namely the response of these new top carnivores to habitat loss and the expansion of the road network are still poorly understood. In this thesis, I provide a general description of human impacts on the smalland medium sized Mediterranean carnivore guild. More specifically, I address the effect of scale on carnivore sensitivity to fragmentation; describe the patterns of road mortality and their causes; analyse the response of the carnivores to the culverts and underpasses on the highways; and assess the habitat connectivity for the most vulnerable species to fragmentation. 20 General Introduction To accomplish these goals I used scent stations to evaluate the “montado” patch/site occupancy by carnivores, monitored roads and highways to estimate carnivore road mortality and used infra-red digital cameras and marble dust to evaluate underpasses and culverts use by carnivores. To analyse the data I applied statistical modelling and developed spatially explicit models to understand how species interact with landscape composition and configuration. I organized the thesis as four independent papers (Chapters 3 to 5) plus this general introduction (Chapter 1), the study area description (Chapter 2) and a summary of the main findings of the present study supporting the discussion of its implications to conservation planning (Chapter 6). In Paper I, I analyzed the sensitivity of the five common meso-carnivores to “montado” fragmentation and evaluate at what spatial scale extent the environmental variables are expressed (Grilo C, Cruz M, Bissonette JA, Santos-Reis M (submitted) Scale-dependent effects of Mediterranean landscapes on meso-carnivore occupancy patterns. Landscape Ecology). Paper II provides a general description of the temporal and spatial patterns of each carnivore species road-kills (Grilo C, Bissonette JA, Santos-Reis M (2008) Spatial-temporal patterns in Mediterranean carnivore casualties: consequences for mitigation. Biological Conservation, 142, 301-313). In Paper III, I determined how often carnivores used crossing structures and assessed whether differences in passage use were related to structure size or to other structural and environmental variables associated with each structure (Grilo C, Bissonette JA, Santos-Reis M (2008) Response of carnivores to existing highway culverts and underpasses: implications for road planning and mitigation. Biodiversity and Conservation, 17, 7, 1685-1699). In Paper IV, I examine the extent to which different levels of landscape connectivity influence stone marten occupancy of “montado” areas and the relation between “montado” connectivity and road mortality risk (Grilo C, 21 21 General Introduction Ascensão F, Bissonette JA, Santos-Reis M (submitted). Structural connectivity in a Mediterranean landscape and its consequences for road mortality risk of stone marten. Landscape and Urban Planning). 3. 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Zapata SC, Travaini A, Ferreras P, Delibes M (2007) Analysis of trophic structure of two carnivore assemblages by means of guild identification. European. Journal of Wildlife Research, 53, 276– 286. 36 36 CHAPTER 2 STUDY AREA CHAPTER 2 - STUDY AREA 2.1 STUDY AREA The study area was located within the Alentejo province (37º54’N, 8º06’ W) in southern Portugal (Figure 1). Most of the Alentejo is under the influence of Mediterranean climate. It is therefore characterized by long, dry and very hot summers (stretching from May/June to September/October), where the temperatures often attain 30-40ºC, and high annual temperature amplitude. The climate is also, characterized by irregular distribution of rainfall over the wet season, as well between years, with river flows showing very intense flood peaks (mainly between October and March) and frequent drought periods in summer and early autumn (source: Instituto de Metereologia). Figure 1 – Land use in the study area. 39 39 Study area This region occupies the south western part of the large Iberian structural unit called Maciço Antigo (ancient massif), where metamorphic Palaeozoic formations dominate. Characterised by extensive plains, elevation ranges from approximately 200 m to a maximum of 500 m (source: Atlas do Ambiente). Agricultural landscape dominates the region and comprises a mosaic of “montado” (savannah-like woods of cork oak Quercus suber and holm oak Q. ilex) patches of different range sizes associated with extensive animal grazing of natural pastures and intermittent cereal cultivation (oats, barley, and wheat) (Blondel 2006). Although scrublands are scarce, they are composed by scrub oaks (Q. coccifera, Q. lusitanicus) and many other Mediterranean shrubs (Arbutus unedo, Cistus sp., Lavandula stoechas, Rosmarinus officinalis, Ulex sp.) as well as a wide diversity of herbaceous plants (Pinto Correia 1993). Primary human activities include cork extraction (in the cork oak “montado”), cattle husbandry (cattle, swine, sheep and goats), intermittent and extensive cereal cultivation (oats, barley and wheat), intensive agriculture related with olive groves and vineyards, and hunting (mainly wild rabbit, partridge Alectoris rufa and wild boar Sus scrofa). The human population density (excluding the two major cities, Évora and Beja, with 1980 inhabitants.km-2) is 21 inhabitants.km-2 and the road network density averages 0.25km.km-2, about half of the mean national road network density of 0.49 km.km-2 (source: IgeoE). Six Natura 2000 sites are included, at least partially, within the limits of the survey area (Sado, Alvito, Cabrela, Monfurado, Caia and Moura-Barrancos - Figure 2) but the lack of management strategies may limit their future conservation value. Nevertheless, this region supports a large variety of wild fauna including some rare and threatened species such as: birds (e.g., black stork Ciconia nigra, booted eagle Hieraetus pennatus, montagu’s harrier Circus pygargus, goshawk Accipiter gentiles, golden eagle Aquila crysaetus), bats (e.g., Mehely’s horseshoe bat Rhinolophus mehelyi) and rodents (e.g., Cabrera’s vole Microtus cabrerae, garden dormouse Elyomis quercinus). Out of the 23 carnivores living in the Mediterranean region (see Chapter 1.1.3.3), and of the 14 reported in Portugal (wolf, red fox, weasel, stoat, polecat, American mink, pine marten, stone marten, badger, otter, genet, Egyptian mongoose, wildcat and Iberian lynx), nine can be found in the study area (Santos-Reis and Petrucci-Fonseca 1999). Exceptions are the wolf, regionally extinct in the 1970's 40 40 Study area Petrucci-Fonseca (1990), and the stoat and the pine marten, two Eurosiberian species that show a preference for colder regions and that were never reported south to river Tejo (Santos-Reis 1985, Matos and Santos-Reis 2004); the American mink is a recent invader in the NW of Portugal, having escaped from a mink farm close to river Minho (Vidal-Figueroa 1987), and apparently stil did not reached Douro River. Figure 2 – Sampling units with scent-stations and roads surveyed. Of the species ocurring in the study area, the Iberian lynx is known to be in the verge of extinction (Sarmento et al. 2008) and the wildcat shows a declining trend and fragmented pattern of distribution (Cabral et al. 2005). The lack of information about the polecat distribution, abundance and ecology in Portugal and the decreasing number of observations, suggest a declining trend and promoted its classification as potentially threatened in the last Red Book revision (Data Deficient - Cabral et al. 2005). For the remaining, although known to be wideranging they are suspected to show different ocupancy patterns and different sensitivities to “montado” and road-related fragmentation. 41 41 Study area Paper I and IV focused in a rectangular area of 7680 km2 which include the sampling units with scent-stations and comprises 39% of “montado” contiguous areas (n=3 with >35 000ha) and “montado” patches of different range sizes (n=1948; from 1 ha to 15 000 ha) interspersed within a cropland matrix (44%) (Figure 2). The remaining area is occupied by production forest (8%), intensive vineyards and olive groves (7%) and urban areas (2%). As for papers II and III, the study was conducted along sections of two highways under private concession of BRISA, Auto-Estradas de Portugal, S.A. (HW) (A2 and A6 - 260km in total) and six segments of national roads (NR) administered by the National Road Institute - IEP (N4/N114, N370, N380, IC1, IP2, IP8 - 314km in total) (Figure 2). Both HWs had four-lanes with a median strip approximately 7m wide, and with livestock exclusion fencing along both sides. NRs had one-lane in each direction without a median strip and only a few sections are fenced for livestock exclusion. Annual average daily traffic ranged between 330-2494 vehicles/night with a speed limit of 120km.h-1 on the HWs, and between 500-2161 vehicles/night and with a speed limit of 100km.h-1 on NRs. For approximately 100km, HWs and NRs run parallel to each other and share the same adjacent vegetative cover. 2.2 REFERENCES Blondel J (2006) The Design of Mediterranean Landscapes: A Millennial Story of Humans and Ecological Systems during the Historic Period. Human Ecology, 34, 713-729. Cabral MJ, Almeida J, Almeida PR, Dellinger T, Ferrand de Almeida N, Oliveira ME, Palmeirim JM, Queiroz AI, Rogado L, Santos-Reis M (2005) Livro Vermelho dos Vertebrados de Portugal. Instituto da Conservação da Natureza, Lisboa. Matos H, Santos-Reis M (2006) Distribution and status of the pine marten in Portugal. In: Martes in carnivore communities (Santos-Reis M, Birks JDS, O’Doherty EC, Proulx G (Eds.) Alpha Wildlife Publications, Sherwood Park, Alberta, Canada. Pp 43-57. Petrucci-Fonseca F (1990) O lobo (Canis lupus signatus Cabrera, 1907) em Portugal. Problemática da sua conservação. Tese de Doutoramento. Universidade de Lisboa. Santos-Reis M (1985) Mustela erminea Linnaeus, 1758: a new mustelid to Portugal. Mammalia, 49, 136138. Santos-Reis M, Petrucci-Fonseca F (1999) Carnívoros. In: Mathias ML (Ed.), Mamíferos terrestres de Portugal Continental Madeira e Açores ICN/CBA, Lisboa, Portugal. 42 42 Study area Sarmento P, Cruz J, Monterroso P, Tarroso P, Ferreira C, Negrões N, Eira C (2008) Status survey of the critically endangered Iberian lynx Lynx pardinus in Portugal. European Journal of Wildlife Research DOI 10.1007/s10344-008-0240-5. Vidal-Figueroa T, Delibes M (1987) Primeros datos sobre el visón Americano en el suroeste de Galizia y Noroeste de Portugal. Ecologia, 1, 145-152. 43 43 CHAPTER 3 RESPONSE OF MEDITERRANEAN CARNIVORES TO “MONTADO” FRAGMENTATION Paper I Scale-dependent effects of Mediterranean landscapes on mesocarnivore occupancy patterns. Clara Grilo, Marta Cruz, John A. Bissonette, Margarida Santos-Reis This paper was submitted to the journal Landscape Ecology on February 22, 2009. Scale-dependent effects of Mediterranean landscapes on mesocarnivore occupancy patterns Clara Grilo1, Marta Cruz2, John A. Bissonette3, Margarida Santos-Reis1 1University of Lisbon, Environmental Biology Center / Departament of Animal Biology, Faculty of Sciences C2 5º floor 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal. E-mail address: [email protected], [email protected] 2Rua de Guerra Junqueiro, 474 4º dto 4150 Porto, Portugal. E-mail address: [email protected] 3U.S. Geological Survey, Utah Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Wildland Resources, College of Natural Resources, Utah State University, USA, 84322-5290. E-mail address: [email protected] Abstract Our goal was to assess the effects of “montado” fragmentation on five meso-carnivores (red fox Vulpes vulpes, stone marten Martes foina, Eurasian badger Meles meles, common genet Genetta genetta and Egyptian mongoose Herpestes ichneumon) by addressing the following questions: 1) Are these meso-carnivores sensitive to “montado” fragmentation? 2) Where does the threshold effects in species occupancy are likely to occur? 3) Which environmental variables explain occupancy at plot-(50 m), patch-(mean home range diameter) and landscape scale extents (median dispersal distance)? and 4) Are there interactions between the contributions of the explanatory variables at the three scale extents? Scent-station surveys were run to evaluate occupancy of “montado” areas. Low detection probabilities were obtained for the Eurasian badger and common genet and hence they were precluded from the analysis. We found that red foxes were not sensitive to “montado” fragmentation, but stone marten and Egyptian mongoose responded negatively to loss of vegetation cover and isolation. The multi-scale models revealed that stone marten were the most sensitive species to “montado” attributes and fragmentation. Stone marten models indicated a dominant independent contribution of habitat quality at plot level followed by the joint effect of isolation and amount of habitat at patch and landscape level, respectively. The major amount of variation in the Egyptian mongoose occupancy patterns was provided by the joint of variables at three scales. We conclude that conservation efforts aimed at improving local habitat quality for both species but with distinct levels of connectivity at patch scale extent. Keywords - “montado” woodlands, patch occupancy, red fox, stone marten and Egyptian mongoose, landscape ecology, variance partitioning. 49 49 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation Introduction Landscapes of the Mediterranean Basin are a fragmented mixture of natural and anthropogenically changed habitats (Plieninger 2006). One example is the “montado” (“dehesa” in Spain), a landscape comprised of cork (Quercus suber) and holm (Q. ilex) oak woodland patches interspersed with agricultural crops, fallow lands, and pastures. This complex and dynamic system supports a diverse assemblage of plants and animals, and is found exclusively in the western part of the Mediterranean Basin Iberian Peninsula (Blondel 2006). Over the last century, the “montado” has experienced significant large-scale land cover changes, including landscape modification, vegetation loss and deterioration, increased edge effects, and loss of landscape connectivity (Plieninger 2006). In southern Portugal, during what was known as the "Wheat Campaign" in the first half of the 20th century, very large areas of forest and shrub cover were cleared, with about half of the region changed to a cropland matrix (Pinto-Correia 1993). In the following decades, the Portuguese government promoted reforestation programs that transformed some areas of seminatural marginal woodlands into artificial plantations populated by non-native conifer and eucalyptus species. Landscape fragmentation has been visualized as a process with four implied effects: a reduction in the amount of habitat, an increase in the number of habitat patches, a decrease in the sizes of habitat patches, and an increase in the isolation of patches (e.g., Fahrig 2003). All fragmentation effects arguably are a major threat to biodiversity and are often associated with population declines and increased risk of extinction (e.g., Bascompte et al 2002). Nevertheless, the critical values of the amount of habitat area and connectivity depends on the landscape pattern and on the processes by which organisms move (With and Crist 1995), and these still are poorly studied and a controversial issue (e.g., Andrén 1994; Hargis et al 1999). Mammalian carnivores usually possess general characteristics (e.g., low densities, large home ranges) that may make them particularly vulnerable to effects of fragmentation (Sunquist and Sunquist 2001). The influence of landscape pattern and composition on carnivores distribution or abundance has been demonstrated elsewhere (e.g., Oehler and Litvaitis 1996; Crooks 2002; Wiegand et al 2005) and more recently, in Mediterranean landscapes (e.g., Virgós et al 2002). Even though carnivores 50 50 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation typically use a wide range of habitats, western Mediterranean carnivore species are predominantly associated with “montado” and scrubland habitats where abundant food sources and shelter are provided (Mangas et al 2008; Rosalino et al 2008). One dramatic example of sensitivity to habitat fragmentation is the extreme range contraction over the last decades of the critically endangered Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus), a highly specialized carnivore that is linked almost exclusively to the wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) as its main prey (Rodriguez and Delibes 2002). Iberian lynx habitat selection is strongly influenced by the density of wild rabbit which originated from the Iberian Peninsula and thrive best in Mediterranean scrubland (Palomares et al 2001). Nevertheless, Virgós (2002) found that generalist species (e.g., badgers) may be affected in the similar ways as specialist species. Hence, in fragmented landscapes which have lost larger carnivore species in the last decades (e.g. Iberian lynx (pre-scenario extinction) and Iberian wolf Canis lupus) (Petrucci-Fonseca 1990; Sarmento et al 2008), the conservation of the new top carnivores such as smalland medium- sized carnivores is not necessarily assured. Recent research has shown that patch occupancy depends on the scale at which organisms interact with landscape pattern operating from local (e.g., shelter, refuge and food availability, inter-specific competition) to regional scale (e.g., distance between patches, matrix composition) (Dunning et al 1992; Bowman et al 2001). Differential species responses are largely related to morphological, physiological, and behavioural characteristics, including body size, mobility, diet requirements, resource specialization, and social structure (e.g., Levin 1992; Gehring and Swihart 2003; Holland et al 2004; Swihart et al 2006). For example, Zabala et al (2005) reported that western polecat (Mustela putorius) survival depended on small scale habitat changes because this species intensively exploited areas where resources were locally abundant. In contrast, distance between forested patches and dispersal habitat were major factors allowing connectivity for Iberian lynx populations in Doñana (Ferreras 2001). We know of no study that has addressed the relative impact of forest structural attributes measured at different scale extents (i.e. the total domain under consideration) on distribution of a community of common meso-carnivore species. Consideration of multiple scale responses can have major implications for the findings of fragmentation studies and enhance the effectiveness of conservation strategies (Bissonette 2003); 51 51 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation otherwise, management actions implemented to ameliorate the negative effects of fragmentation might be less effective or fail (Orrock et al 2000). The main goal of our research was to assess the effects of fragmentation of Mediterranean “montado” landscapes on the most common meso-carnivores in Portugal by addressing the following questions: 1) Are these meso-carnivores sensitive to “montado” fragmentation? 2) Where does the threshold effects in species occupancy are likely to occur? 3) Which environmental variables explain their occupancy at plot-, patch and landscape scale extents? and 4)What are the independent and/or joint contributions of the explanatory variables at the three scale extents? We initially focused on the effect of patch size and isolation on species presence and then examined which key “montado” attributes were related to differences in carnivore occupancy at multiple spatial scales: the plot (50m), the patch (mean home range diameter) and the landscape (median dispersal distance). The five most common carnivore species present in our study area (Santos-Reis and Petrucci-Fonseca 1999), were: red fox Vulpes vulpes, stone marten Martes foina, Eurasian badger Meles meles, common genet Genetta genetta and Egyptian mongoose Herpestes ichneumon. These species have different evolutionary histories, life-history traits and ecological requirements. We therefore expected different responses to fragmentation. We predicted that eurytypic species should be less adversely affected than more stenotypic species (Swihart et al. 2003). We also predicted that specific behavioral and ecological attributes of species would be important. For example, forest-dwelling species like stone martens and common genets may be more affected by variables expressed at patch and landscape extents, whereas and the remaining species may be more affected by environmental variables expressed locally. We also expected that highly social species, e.g., Eurasian badgers and Egyptian mongooses, would be negatively affected by fragmentation because area effects limit carrying capacity of a patch and may result in a lower threshold of patch sizes to sustain populations. 52 52 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation Methods Study area The study area was located within the Alentejo province (37º54’N, 8º06’ W) of Portugal (Figure 1) and is characterized by its low elevation (~ 200 m to 500 m) and extensive plains and a Mediterranean climate. Figure 1 - Study area in Alentejo Province, Portugal. Sampling sites are shown in “montado” patches (triangles) as well in the continuous landscape (stars). The landscape is highly fragmented, with about 44% of the area occupied by a cropland matrix, followed by “montado” (39%) and, to a much lesser extent, by production forest (8%) and intensive vineyards and olive groves (7%). Primary human activities are predominately extensive and intensive agriculture related with olive groves and vineyards, cork extraction, cattle husbandry and hunting (mainly wild rabbit and partridge Alectoris rufa). The human population density (excluding the two major cities, Évora and Beja, with ~1980 inhabitants.km-2) is 21 inhabitants.km-2 and the road network density 53 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation averages 0.25 km.km-2, about half of the mean national road network density of 0.49 km km-2 (source - IgeoE). Data collection Because scent stations are widely used and are considered one of the most efficient techniques for surveying carnivores (e.g., Conner et al 1983; Zielinski and Stauffer 1996; Wilson and Delahay 2001), we used them to detect the target carnivores. We assumed that species identification based on footprint size and shape is reliable (Piñero 2002); previous studies have successfully identified these species by their tracks and sign (e.g. Sargeant et al 2003). Carnivore surveys were conducted between May and September of 2005 in 44 sampling units (SU): 25 were located in different sized “montado” patches (ranging from 55 to 526 ha), and 19 in continuous “montado” areas (11668 - 60175 ha). Both were included in a matrix characterized mainly by agricultural croplands. The sampling protocol is given in figure 2: at each SU we placed 7 to 17 scent stations (depending on the extent of the site) in a grid with 300 m spacing. Intersampling unit distance was at least 4 km to insure independence and avoid pseudoreplication (mean distance = 6838 ± 2249 m). Figure 2 - Example of the sampling protocol used to analyze the effect of habitat descriptors at the plot (50m radius), patch (home range diameter) and landscape (dispersal ability) extent on carnivore occupancy. A scent-station was composed of one square plate (1 m x 1 m) covered with marble dust to detect tracks. Both bait (chicken wings) and lure (Cavens GUSTO Lure) were placed in the centre of the plate to attract individuals. Each scent station was checked for tracks every other day for six consecutive days (three visits), and tracks identified and registered. During each visit we replaced scents and bait and smoothed the surface of the scent-station. In the analysis we used only presence/absence data for 54 54 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation each SU to avoid counting multiple visits by the same individual in the same scentstation or in a group of scent-stations. Data analysis To assure the reliability of the data to model the carnivores occupancy patterns, we estimated the detection probability of each SU using the model likelihood for the set of detections by scent-stations developed by Mackenzie et al (2002) with the software program PRESENCE (http://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov/software/ doc/presence/presence.html). We assumed that detection is constant across both space and time and varies among carnivore species and hence, we estimated the detectability of continuous “montado” areas for each carnivore species, where they are known to be present. When detection probability is 0.3 or greater, the occupancy rate is unbiased (Mackenzie et al 2002) and data can be used to evaluate the site characteristics and environmental variables that influence the species occupancy patterns. Additionally, detection probability values were converted into estimates of the sampling effort (number of scent stations needed to assure of its absence rather than non-detected) using the procedure suggested by Reed (1996): N=ln (α level)/ln(1-p), α was fixed at 0.05 and p is the detection probability. We tested differences in the proportion of sites occupied by meso-carnivores in relation to patch size and distance to large patches. The homogeneity of proportions was evaluated in relation to three non-overlapping size classes of “montado” areas (a < 60% of a home range; b ≥60% to 100% of a home range, and c - > than ~10 home ranges for continuous “montado” areas) and three distance classes to nearest large patch, here defined as ≥4km2 (a - 0m; b - 150-1500m; c - ≥1500m) using the GLIMMIX procedure in SAS 9.1.3 (SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, North Carolina) software package Twenty-six descriptors were recorded to investigate species-environment relationships at three spatial scales: plot-, patch- and landscape-extent (Table 1, Figure 2). In a 50-m radius circular area centered on each scent–station, we recorded variables describing “montado” vegetation structure (density and maturity), understory height and density, presence of riparian vegetation and evidence of livestock use. We then calculate an average of descriptors from the replicate scent-stations to characterize the 55 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation plot level in the sampling unit. For the patch level we measured a series of variables including: patch size, size of the nearest patch, distance to the nearest patch, distance to the nearest large patch (>4km2), and distance to the nearest continuous “montado” area. In order to extract the area of surrounding habitat of the patch we created a buffer zone based on the estimated home range diameter extent for medium-sized carnivores. Based on literature we defined a mean home range as 300 ha for stone marten, common genet, and Egyptian mongoose, and 500 ha for red fox and Eurasian badger (see Palomares and Delibes, 1993; Santos-Reis et al 2004; Rosalino et al 2005). Using the mean diameter of the species home range (1,954 and 2,522 m radius, respectively), we created a circle around the centroid of the scent stations group. Table 1. Variables considered at each scale for habitat description. Scale Variables “Montado” density PATCH PLOT “Montado” maturity Under storey density Under storey height Cows Sheep Streams Patch/site area Area of the nearest patch Distance to the nearest patch Distance do nearest large patch Distance do nearest continuous patch Distance to the stream Range values 1-3 68-191 0-88 0-112 0-1 0-1 0-1 54-625 0.17-394 150-3400 150-6000 Distance to nearest continuous patch (>40km2) (km) 1.5-27 0-2900 Extensive agriculture* Intensive agriculture* Forest production* Distance to the stream (m) Linkage to other patches by riparian vegetation (0=no link; 1=link) Area of extensive agriculture (ha) Area of intensive agriculture (ha) Area of forest production (ha) Extensive agriculture area Area of extensive agriculture (ha) Intensive agriculture area Area of intensive agriculture (ha) Forest production area Area of forest production (ha) “montado” area Area of “montado” (ha) AVDP MPS ED Average distance among “montado” patches (m) Mean “montado” patch size (ha) “montado” edge density (km) MPAR “montado” Mean Perimeter-Area Ratio SHDI Shannon’s Diversity Index Linkage by riparian vegetation LANDSCAPE** Definition Oak woodland density (1= sparse, 2= dense, 3=very dense) Age of trees measured by tree perimeter (surrogate of maturity) (cm) Under storey density (%) Under storey height (cm) 0=absent; 1=present 0=absent; 1=present Streams (0=absent; 1=present) Patch/site size (ha) Area of the nearest patch (ha) Distance to the nearest patch (m) Distance to nearest patch >4km2 (m) 0-1 99-794; 188-1281 0-318; 0-591 0-190; 0-299 6105-37777; 1173258601 921-9796;129010019 101-13906; 29925935 3871-31533;968549252 58-1690; 72-1526 31-1660; 39-860 0.2-1.95; 0.36-1.82 113-10141; 1958040 0.60-2.33 *radius for the average diameter of each carnivore home range (HR) (HR 300 ha for stone marten and Egyptian mongoose; HR 500 ha for red fox and badger); ** radius of the average dispersal capacity for medium-sized carnivores (12124 m for stone marten, genet and Egyptian mongoose; 15652 m for red fox and Eurasian badger). For the landscape analyses, we calculated the median dispersal distance for medium-sized carnivores based on the equation 7*√home range size (ha) from Bowman et al (2002). Therefore, a buffer zone of 12124 m radius was placed around 56 56 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation each sampling unit center for stone marten, genet and Egyptian mongoose, and a similar procedure for red fox and European badger (buffer zone of 15652 m radius). We measured nine variables (Table 1) related to landscape composition and configuration: percent of each most representative type of land use (i.e., extensive and intensive agriculture, forest production, “montado”), average distance among patches, mean patch size, edge density, mean perimeter-area ratio, and Shannon’s diversity index. The spatial descriptors at the patch and landscape scale extents were assessed using digital information available in a geographic information system: a land use map (COS 90, 1990) and a riparian vegetation map (SPOT satellite image from 2000). Spatialpattern indices were calculated using FRAGSTATS (McGarigal and Marks 1995) in the Patch Analyst extension (Rempel and Carr 2003) for ArcView 3.1 (ESRI 1996). Variance partitioning was used to decompose the variation explained by variables in the occupancy of target species (see Lawler and Edwards 2006) at each of the three spatial extents under analysis (Figure 3). Variation in the occupancy data was partitioned using a series of logistic regression models produced for each target species. We started by fitting one model for each spatial scale extent (plot, patch and landscape) per species by applying stepwise selection procedure to retain the variables (using default variable entry/removal criteria of p = 0.05 and 0.10, respectively) with higher explanatory power. Prior to statistical analysis, the indices and proportions were square-root transformed to meet normality and homocedasticity assumptions (Chaterjee and Price 1991). The presence/absence of each species in each sampling unit was used as the dependent (response) variable for the three scale extents. We then used the variables included in the three models to build a full model for each species and then built three additional models for each species using: 1) plot and patch variables, 2) plot and landscape variables, 3) patch and landscape variables. An adaptation of the procedure suggested by Borcard et al (1992) (Table 2) was used to partition the total deviance explained ([Deviance null-Deviance residual]/Deviance null) by the models (see Figure 3, Table 2). All statistical analyses were carried out using R freeware package (available at www.r-project.org/). 57 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation Figure 3 - Conceptual model (Venn diagrams) underpinning the individual and combined variance components. Circles correspond to the total species variance accounted by each scale level. The numbered areas correspond to the individual variance components as described in table 2 (adapted from Cushman and McGarigal 2002). Moran’s Index was measured for the residuals of each model to check the existence of spatial autocorrelation using a Monte Carlo randomization test (999 simulations - CrimeStats III software, Ned Levine 2007). The Moran’s function calculates a Z score value that indicates the significance of the spatial autocorrelation. A ‘Z’ score would have to be less than - 1.96 or greater than 1.96 to be statistically significant at the level of 0.05. Table 2. Steps to decompose the variance into individual variance components. Steps (1) Plot Description Best Model with plot variables (2) Patch Best Model with patch variables (3) Landscape Best Model with landscape variables (4) Plot+Patch Model with both variables from (1) and (2) (5) Plot+Landscape Model with both variables from (1) and (3) (6) Patch+Landscape Model with both variables from (2) and (3) (7) Full (8) Pure Plot Model with all variables from (1), (2) and (3) (7)-(6) (9) Pure Patch (7)-(5) (10) Pure Landscape (7)-(4) (11) Shared Plot+Patch (7)-(3)-(8)-(9) (12) Shared Plot+Landscape (7)-(2)-(9)-(10) (13) Shared Patch+Landscape (7)-(1)-(9)-(10) (14) Shared Plot+Patch+Landscape (7)-(8)-(9)-(10)-(11)-(12)-(13) 1-(7) (15) Unexplained variance 58 58 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation Results A total of 799 carnivore visits were recorded in 2902 scent stations-nights established over the 44 sampling units. We found red fox in 35 SU (78% of SU), stone marten in 31 SU (70%), Egyptian mongoose in 26 SU (59%), Eurasian badger 23 (52%), and common genet 22 (50%) (Table 3). Table 3. Summary of the occupancy of red fox, stone marten, Eurasian badger, common genet and Egyptian mongoose in different sized sampling units. Sites # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Size (ha) 55 59 69 75 91 97 104 110 117 122 126 131 147 148 149 164 173 223 229 233 267 288 301 425 526 11669 11669 13602 39466 39466 39466 39630 39630 39630 39630 39630 39630 39630 60175 60175 60175 60175 60175 60175 Red fox 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 Stone marten 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Eurasian badger 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 Common genet 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 Egyptian mongoose 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 The five species co-occurred only in five continuous “montado” sites. Likelihood models revealed that detection probability had a negligible effect on red fox, stone 59 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation marten and Egyptian mongoose distribution estimates (p>0.3), so occupancy patterns for these species are reliable (Table 4). Low detection probabilities were obtained for the Eurasian badger (p=0.136) and genet p=0.24); 22 and 11 scent-stations were necessary in each site, respectively to assure their absence (Table 4). Hence, we preclude them from the following analysis. Red fox appeared to be unaffected by fragmentation; non-significant differences in proportion of sites with the species presence were found for patch size and degree of isolation. Stone marten and Egyptian mongoose were sensitive to vegetation loss and isolation, but with distinct thresholds. The proportion of sites with species presence was significantly higher in continuous “montado” areas than in patches (independently of the size) (Figure 4). 1.0 0.9 “montado” patch size less 60% of homerange (n=16*; n=22**) “montado” patch size from 60% to 100% of homerange (n=8) “montado” continuous area (n=19) b a b 0.8 a 0.7 a a 0.6 0.5 a a 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 b 0.0 red fox stone marten Egyptian mongoose Figure 4 – Proportions of sites with species presence as a function of the amount of “montado” vegetation in their home range between pairs of “montado” size classes (* average home range for stone marten and Egyptian mongoose;** average home range for red fox). Same letter are not statistically different (p>0.05). 60 60 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation A few stone marten were further than 1500m from large patches, but Egyptian mongoose revealed a lower threshold for patch isolation, with significantly fewer presences in patches between 150-1500m from larger patches (Figure 5). 0m (n=19) 1.0 0.9 0.8 a a 0.7 150m and 1500m (n=13) a a a c a 0.6 more than 1500m (n=12) 0.5 b 0.4 0.3 b c 0.2 0.1 b 0.0 red fox stone marten Egyptian mongoose Figure 5 – Estimated the proportions of sites with species presence as a function of the distance to the closest large patch size (≥4km2). Same letter indicates not statistic differences (p>0.05). When we ran the multi-scaled analysis, only stone marten and Egyptian mongoose responded significantly (p>0.05) to the “montado” attributes at different scale extents (Table 5). Table 5. Results of the regression models performed for each species on the three scale extents. Given are the selected variables, coefficients (β), standard error (SE), and z test values (z value), p-values (p) and % of deviance explained (D). Variables β SE z value p constant “montado” maturity Sheep constant “montado” density Understory density -6.020 0.799 -2.242 -11.007 6.229 0.591 3.293 0.361 0.894 4.082 2.601 0.192 -1.828 2.214 -2.508 -2.695 2.394 3.091 0.068 0.027 0.012 0.007 0.010 0.002 constant Distance to nearest large patch constant Patch/site area 2.963 -0.069 -0.764 0.143 0.830 0.200 0.448 0.045 3.568 -3.403 -1.707 3.115 0.001 0.001 0.087 0.001 constant “montado” area constant Extensive agriculture area -5.818 0.057 6.366 -0.039 1.938 0.017 2.227 0.014 -3.001 3.356 2.858 -2.798 0.003 0.001 0.004 0.005 D PLOT stone marten Egyptian mongoose 25 39 PATCH stone marten Egyptian mongoose 34 24 LANDSCAPE stone marten Egyptian mongoose 35 18 No significant spatial autocorrelation was found on the residuals of the three models performed for stone marten (Z score (p>0.05) = -0.56(plot), 0.15(patch); 1.64 (landscape)), and for Egyptian mongoose (Z score (p>0.05) = -0.04(plot), -0.03(patch), - 61 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation 0.013 (landscape)). At the plot extent, understory and “montado” density had a positive impact on Egyptian mongoose, whereas sheep absence and “montado” maturity influenced positively stone marten site use. At patch extent, only distance to the nearest large patch influenced negatively stone marten’s use, while the “montado” area influenced Egyptian mongoose’s use and the effect was positive. At the landscape extent, the area of “montado” had the highest positive influence in stone marten’s use, and the area in extensive agriculture influenced negatively Egyptian mongoose. The percent of deviance explained for the stone marten and mongoose full models was 72% and 42%, respectively. Within the deviance explained, the largest proportion of the deviance in stone marten occupancy was accounted by the single effects of plot (44%) and the joint effect of patch and landscape variables (34%) (Figure 6). 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Shared Plot+Patch+Landscape Shared Patch+Landscape Shared Plot+Landscape Shared Plot+Patch Pure Landscape Pure Patch Pure Plot stone marten Egyptian mongoose Figure 6 - Results of variation partitioning for the stone marten and Egyptian mongoose regression models at the three scales. The joint effect of the three spatial scales and the single effects of plot variables explained the major proportion of the deviance in Egyptian mongoose occupancy (49%) followed by the single effect of the plot variables (43%) (Figure 6). The negative shared contribution of plot/patch (-15%) and plot/landscape (-0.5%) variables for stone marten occupancy indicated that the relationship between the variables were suppressive and not additive (Chevan and Sutherland 1991). 62 62 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation Discussion Our findings revealed that common and wide-ranging Mediterranean carnivores show sensitivity to fragmentation and the response is species-specific and expressed at different scale extents. The highest variation explained by the stone marten models suggested that this species is the most sensitive to “montado” attributes at three scales while red fox appear to have no sensitivity to “montado” fragmentation. This result is unsurprising for red foxes, referred as generalist and opportunistic predators (e.g. Dell'Arte et al 2007). Likewise, habitat composition seems also to have no effect on their occupancy patterns (e.g. Lucherini and Lovari 1996), even to vegetation cover losses of ~40% of their home range. For the remaining species (stone marten and Egyptian mongoose), we found significant differences in their occupancy when the “montado” become patchy but the low thresholds of patch isolation for Egyptian mongoose demonstrated that this species is clearly sensitive to cover, and movement may be limited at shorter distances. Palomares and Delibes (1993) documented that Egyptian mongoose show avoidance of open areas and preferred the use of dense vegetation which also provides refuges for the wild rabbit (Lombardi et al 2007), their main prey when available (Delibes et al 1984). Also, since mongooses are diurnal, social, and are subject to control by humans (Borralho et al 1996), cover seems to be critical for its survival. As a typical nocturnal, solitary and forest-dwelling species (Santos-Reis et al 2004), stone marten show high sensitivity to isolation, responding positively to 33% of patches that were separated by 1500 m or more from other large patches, in contrast to their occupancy in 88% of patches separated by less of 1500 m. Virgós and Garcia (2002), however, have documented distances up to 5000m; because these authors analyzed distances ranging from 5 km to 20 km, the differences in response appears to be related to the different scale extent analyses used. Regarding to patch size, we only found significant occupancy differences between “montado” patches (even with 100% cover within average home-range size) and continuous areas, a finding which did not agree with either Hargis et al (1999) or Virgós and Garcia (2002), who reported that the critical proportion of mature forest for martens ranged between 50 to 70%, and even 63 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation less with those mentioned by Andrén (1994), Fahrig (1997) and Flather and Beevers (2002), who detected, in general, significant effects of fragmentation in approximately 20-30% levels of vegetation cover. Indeed, complex interactions of site-specific factors may explain these different findings. It is important to keep in mind that when interpreting these results, the impact of vegetation loss may be confounded by other contributing factors such as prey density, human disturbance, predator removal activities and climate conditions (Carbone and Gittleman 2002). We were unable to measure these variables in this study but Mortelliti and Boitani (2008) reported that by increasing resource availability, stone marten occupancy increased even in relatively small and isolated patches. These results show an interesting interaction between resource availability and occupancy rates that appears to reduce the effects of patch size and isolation. Although patch area and isolation appear to influence carnivore occupancy patterns (e.g., Hargis et al 1999; Crooks 2002; Virgós et al 2002), we found that other factors at different scale extents emerged as explanatory variables for carnivores occupancy. The importance of both habitat quality and quantity on carnivores patterns is well documented by, e.g., Crooks (2002), Virgós and Garcia (2002), Mortelliti and Boitani (2008), but the contributions of environmental variables expressed at different scale extents has been poorly understood and usually reported for other species (e.g., Crozier and Niemi 2003). Studies of Mediterranean carnivores have more often relied on traditional methods where species-environment relationships were examined with the local descriptors to evaluate habitat selection (e.g. Palomares and Delibes 1993; Santos-Reis et al 2004) or landscape variables influencing its distribution (e.g., Borralho et al 1996; Virgós et al 2002). Although informative, these approaches may provide insufficient information concerning the relative importance of variables if they are significantly correlated (Mac Nally 2000). The variation partitioning method used in this study provides new insights into species-environmental relationships because it measures the independent and joint explanatory capacities of variables obtained in the different scale extent models. The method allows an examination of both joint and single variable effects in explaining species occupancy patterns. 64 64 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation For stone marten, we observed a dominant independent contribution of descriptors at the fine scale, whereas the joint contribution of the plot-, patch- and landscape-scales contributed most to explain the Egyptian mongoose occupancy patterns. The presence of stone marten seems to depend highly on the presence of older-growth forests where it can find arboreal cavities as resting and denning sites that provide security from enemies and thermal insulation which is in accordance to the findings of Rondinini and Boitani (2002) and Santos-Reis et al (2004). The joint effects of continuous or functionally connected “montado” areas also show a high correlation with stone marten occupancy. These results support the findings of Virgós and Garcia (2002) who evaluated the role of patch size and isolation on the stone marten distribution patterns and found evidence, although poorly predicted by the models, of the role that isolation plays in stone marten occupancy. Nevertheless, the importance of distance to large patches and the detection of stone marten in very small patches, suggests that patch size may have little or no effect on occupancy patterns when located in the surroundings of continuous “montado” areas. Virgós and Garcia (2002) argued that continuous areas may act as source of individuals (Pulliam 1988), that help maintain healthy populations in small patches. However, individuals far from continuous areas may use and move between small patches to supplement food resources. This behavior has been reported by Palomares and Delibes (1994) with radio-tracked genets in sub-optimal habitats in Northern Doñana National Park; genets used the same patch for several days and then switched to another patches to access resources. Habitat quality at plot extent (“montado” and understorey density) is more highly correlated with Egyptian mongoose occupancy rates than variables expressed at patch or landscape extent. Nevertheless, the combined effects of habitat quality and quantity have higher importance than when acting independently. These findings provide a new perspective of mongoose-environment relationships; even during population expansion (Borralho et al 1996), their occurrence may be only assured when the connectivity among cover areas is established. Finally, the amount of habitat in surrounding patches appeared to have distinct effects that minimized the adverse effect of fragmentation for the stone marten and the Egyptian mongoose. Our results demonstrate that fragmentation of high habitat quality might have little effect on 65 Response of mediterranean carnivores to "montado" fragmentation Egyptian mongoose if the matrix facilitates the exchange of individuals between patches (Wiegand et al 2005). Due to their wide ranging habits, carnivores response to landscape fragmentation effects is challenging to assess. Distinct responses of carnivores can be attributable to phenomenon that may be operating at each particular site, potentially confounding the analysis. For example, the detection of a species in a patch does not necessarily imply that the site can support resident animals but rather that it may be visited occasionally as one of several patches required for existence (sensu Dunning et al 1992; Andrén 1994). Alternatively, patches surrounded by a hostile matrix may be more intensively used resulting in ephemerally high population densities (e.g. Anderson 1997). Our results reinforce the view that a multiple species approach at multiple spatial scales is crucial to understand the factors affecting patterns of species distribution, particularly when measures of habitat quality and quantity and their interactions are involved. Management policies will be more effective if they take into account these considerations. In conclusion, in highly altered landscapes such as those in the Mediterranean, this study suggests that conservation efforts should focus primarily on the local habitat quality for the maintenance of stone marten and Egyptian mongoose with distinct levels of connectivity at patch scale extent. Acknowledgments This study was supported by a research project (POCTI/MGS/47435/2002) from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia. C. Grilo was supported by a Ph.D. Grant (SFRH/BD/10600/2002). 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Ecol Appl 6:1254-1267 70 70 CHAPTER 4 ROAD EFFECTS ON MEDITERRANEAN CARNIVORES Paper II Spatial and temporal patterns in Mediterranean carnivore road casualties: consequences for mitigation. Clara Grilo, John A. Bissonette, Margarida Santos-Reis This paper is published in Biological Conservation (2009) 142: 301-313 B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E RVAT I O N 1 4 2 ( 2 0 0 9 ) 3 0 1 –3 1 3 available at www.sciencedirect.com journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/biocon Spatial–temporal patterns in Mediterranean carnivore road casualties: Consequences for mitigation Clara Griloa,*, John A. Bissonetteb, Margarida Santos-Reisa a Universidade de Lisboa, Centro de Biologia Ambiental/Departamento de Biologia Animal, Faculdade de Ciências, C2 5° 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal b US Geological Survey Utah Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Wildland Resources, College of Natural Resources, Utah State University, UT 84322-5290, USA A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T Article history: Many carnivores have been seriously impacted by the expansion of transportation systems Received 16 December 2007 and networks; however we know little about carnivore response to the extent and magni- Received in revised form tude of road mortality, or which age classes may be disproportionately impacted. Recent 8 October 2008 research has demonstrated that wildlife–vehicle-collisions (WVC) involving carnivores Accepted 19 October 2008 are modulated by temporal and spatial factors. Thus, we investigated road mortality on a Available online 3 December 2008 guild of small and medium-sized carnivores in southern Portugal using road-kill data obtained from a systematic 36 months monitoring period along highways (260 km) and Keywords: national roads (314 km) by addressing the following questions: (a) which species and age Meso-carnivores class are most vulnerable to WVC? (b) are there temporal and/or spatial patterns in road- Road-kill patterns kill? and (c) which life-history and/or spatial factors influence the likelihood of collisions? ‘‘Montado’’ lands We recorded a total of 806 carnivore casualties, which represented an average of 47 ind./ Modeling 100 km/year. Red fox and stone marten had the highest mortality rates. Our findings high- Road ecology light three key messages: (1) the majority of road-killed individuals were adults of common Mitigation species; (2) all carnivores, except genets, were more vulnerable during specific life-history phenological periods: higher casualties were observed when red fox and stone marten were provisioning young, Eurasian badger casualties occurred more frequently during dispersal, and higher Egyptian mongoose mortality occurred during the breeding period; and (3) modeling demonstrated that favorable habitat, curves in the road, and low human disturbance were major contributors to the deadliest road segments. Red fox carcasses were more likely to be found on road sections with passages distant from urban areas. Conversely, stone marten mortalities were found more often on national roads with high of cork oak woodland cover; Egyptian mongoose and genet road-kills were found more often on road segments close to curves. Based on our results, two key mitigation measures should help to reduce WVC in Portugal. The first involves the improvement of existing crossings with buried and small mesh size fence to guide the individuals towards to the passages, in road segments with high traffic volume (>1200 vehicles/night) and located in preferred carnivore habitats. The second mitigation involves cutting or removal of dense vegetation in verges of road segments with curves to aid motorists in seeing animals about to cross. Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. * Corresponding author: Tel.: +351 217500000; fax: +351 217500028. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (C. Grilo), [email protected] (J.A. Bissonette), [email protected] (M. Santos-Reis). 0006-3207/$ - see front matter Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.026 75 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 302 1. B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E RVAT I O N Introduction As roads are built and upgraded to accommodate greater traffic densities in rural areas, the rate of wildlife–vehicle collisions (WVC) has increased significantly (Forman et al., 2003). Although WVC involving ungulates and other larger animals have been well documented in North America (Hansen, 1983; Conover et al., 1995; Romin and Bissonette, 1996; Hubard et al., 2000; Joyce and Mahoney, 2001; Biggs et al., 2004) and in Europe (Bruinderink and Hazenbroek, 1996; Seiler, 2005), much less information is available for the suspected high number of small fauna–vehicle collisions (e.g., Huijser and Bergers, 2000; Ramp et al., 2006). WVC involving small fauna can as well cause human death and injury (Williams and Wells, 2005) and are increasingly relevant in the context of biodiversity conservation. It is well known that some carnivores have been severely affected by the expansion of transportation structures (Ferreras et al., 1992; Van der Zee et al., 1992; Caro et al., 2000; Taylor et al., 2002; Forman et al., 2003; Iuell et al., 2003), however we know little about carnivore response to the extent and magnitude of road mortality, or which age classes may be disproportionally impacted (Noss et al., 1996; Ferreras et al., 2001; Blanco et al., 2005). Forman and Alexander (1998) suggested that population effects of road mortality on wildlife may be restricted primarily to a few rare species, but clearly collision records for all wildlife species are underestimated; further, data on the impact of roads on population stability is scarce. In general, carnivores are particularly vulnerable to WVC and barrier effects because of their life-history characteristics; e.g., low population density, often low fecundity, and relatively large home ranges (Spellerberg, 1998; Trombulak and Frissel, 2000; Sunquist and Sunquist, 2001; Forman et al., 2003). In fact, for some carnivores, road mortality has been identified as a serious source of mortality; e.g., the Florida panther (Taylor et al., 2002), wolves in Canada (Paquet, 1993); and Iberian lynx in Spain (Ferreras et al., 1992). In Britain, traffic is believed to kill more than 40% of the estimated adult Eurasian badger population annually (Clarke et al., 1998) and mortality on roads accounts for 10% of the endangered Iberian wolf population south of the Douro river in Portugal (Petrucci-Fonseca, 1990; Grilo et al., 2004). Although road mortality is the most visible impact, less is known about the barrier effect caused by road avoidance (McLellan and Shackleton, 1988; Lovallo and Anderson, 1996; Whittington et al., 2004; Alexander et al., 2005; Blanco et al., 2005; Jaeger et al., 2005). In a few mammal species (e.g., desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni), bobcat (Lynx rufus) and coyote (Canis latrans)), there is evidence that highways have blocked movement of individuals between road sides affecting reproductive ability and accelerating the loss of genetic diversity (Epps et al., 2005; Riley et al., 2006; Strasburg, 2006). These impacts impose serious concerns about stability and sustainability of wildlife populations in roaded landscapes (Lodé, 2000; Ramp et al., 2005). Despite the large number of road mortality studies (e.g., Mech et al., 1988; Brody and Pelton, 1989; Dodd et al., 1989; Bruinderink and Hazenbroek, 1996; Hubard et al., 2000; Carr and Fahrig, 2001; Ramsden, 2003; Kolowski and Nielsen, 2008), only a few have focused on a group of species (Clevenger 76 1 4 2 ( 2 0 0 9 ) 3 0 1 –3 1 3 et al., 2003; Malo et al., 2004; Ramp et al., 2006; Eigenbrod et al., 2008) and no study has ever focused on the small and medium-sized carnivore guild of a country. To our knowledge, only a few papers have attempted to summarize and interpret the patterns of some carnivores in relation to roads (Clarke et al., 1998; Philcox et al., 1999; Cain et al., 2003; Seiler, 2003; Saeki and Macdonald, 2004; Baker et al., 2007). Recent research has demonstrated that WVC involving carnivores are modulated by temporal (Philcox et al., 1999; Guter et al., 2005; Orlowski and Nowak, 2006) and spatial factors (Clarke et al., 1998; Caro et al., 2000; Cain et al., 2003; Clevenger et al., 2003; Malo et al., 2004; Ramp et al., 2005). Temporal variations in road-kill are related to differences in species behavior and activity, e.g., foraging and resting, mating, and dispersal of juveniles (Saeki and Macdonald, 2004). Additionally, WVC show significant spatial clustering and appear to depend on population density, species biology, habitat and landscape structure, as well as road and traffic characteristics (Clevenger et al., 2003; Malo et al., 2004). Vehicle speed (Jaarsma et al., 2006), adjacent vegetative cover (Ramp et al., 2005), roadside topography (Clevenger et al., 2003), and type of nearby passages (Clevenger et al., 2003; Malo et al., 2004) are road-related features that have been shown to have varying effects on road-crossing by wildlife. Moreover, the influence of traffic volume both on road mortality and on the barrier effect has long been recognized (e.g., Clarke et al., 1998; Alexander et al., 2005). Up to a threshold volume of traffic, WVC increase with increasing traffic; above that threshold, some species are discouraged from crossing roads (Forman et al., 2003; Seiler, 2003; Alexander et al., 2005). Thus, road managers need reliable data to identify when and where particular species are susceptible to high road-kill rates in order to implement mitigation measures during the road design planning and/or exploration stage. Given the complexity of factors contributing to fatalities and the specific life-history characteristics of individual species, a fruitful approach involves identifying explanatory variables that influence the probability of collisions. In this paper we provide an assessment of road impacts on the guild of small and medium-sized carnivores in Portugal by addressing the following questions: (a) which species and age classes are most vulnerable to WVC? (b) are there consistent temporal and/or spatial patterns in road-kill? and (c) are there life-history and/or spatial factors that influence the likelihood of collisions? In this context, we: (i) quantified the number of fatalities of each species, (ii) calculated the proportion of juveniles vs. adults fatalities, (iii) compared the mean number of fatalities among each known biological period for distinct species, and (iv) developed predictive models for each species to identify explanatory variables that may influence the probability of road mortality. We further discuss potential preventive measures. 2. Methods 2.1. Study area In Portugal, from the 1990s onwards, the road network increased rapidly, mainly because of high speed road construction (source: Portuguese Roads Institute (IEP), BRISA Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E RVAT I O N Auto-Estradas). Two basic categories of roads can be found in Portugal: national roads (NR) administered by the IEP and highways (HW) under private concession (e.g., BRISA, AutoEstradas de Portugal, S.A.). Our study was conducted along sections of two BRISA HW (A2 and A6 – 260 km) and six segments of NR (N4, N114, N370, N380, IP2, IP8 – 314 km) in the southern region of the country (Fig. 1). Both HW consist of a total of four-lanes with a median strip of approximately 7 m wide, and with livestock exclusion fencing along both sides. Annual average daily traffic (AADT) ranges between 330 and 2494 vehicles/night with a speed limit of 120 km/h. NR consist of one-lane in each direction without a median strip and only a few sections are fenced for livestock exclusion. AADT ranges between 500 and 2161 vehicles/night and with a speed limit of 100 km/h. Although both type of roads have a similar range of traffic volumes, HW have a higher proportion of road segments with higher traffic (+7%) and in several locations (100 km) HW and NR run parallel to each other sharing the same adjacent vegetative cover (Fig. 1). The study area was originally covered by Mediterranean woodlands and scrublands, but since the 1930s has been highly modified. The resulting landscape is highly fragmented with about half of the area occupied by a cropland matrix. The remaining land (so-called ‘‘montado’’ lands) is dominated mainly by cork oak (Quercus suber) woods in the west and by holm oak (Quercus ilex) woods in the east. Human activity is 303 1 4 2 ( 2 0 0 9 ) 3 0 1 –3 1 3 predominately cork extraction, cattle husbandry, agriculture and hunting. Elevation ranges from approximately 200 to 500 m, including four mountains: Adiça, Monfurado, Portel, and Grândola. The climate is Mediterranean with an Atlantic influence in the western part of the study area. Five Natura 2000 Network sites are included, at least partially, within the limits of the study area: Sado, Alvito, Cabrela, Monfurado and Caia (Fig. 1). The small and medium-sized carnivore community in the study area is diverse and comprised of nine species (SantosReis and Petrucci-Fonseca, 1999): red fox (Vulpes vulpes), weasel (Mustela nivalis), Western polecat (Mustela putorius), stone marten (Martes foina), Eurasian badger (Meles meles), otter (Lutra lutra), common genet (Genetta genetta), Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) and European wildcat (Felis silvestris). Only Western polecats and European wildcats are considered threatened, being the remaining classed as least concern species in view of its widespread distribution in the country (Trindade et al., 1998; Cabral et al., 2005; Santos-Reis et al., 2005). Nevertheless, detailed data on the distribution, abundance and habitat requirements of most species is still scarce. Weasels are rodent-specialists and this largely influences their demography with populations showing strong fluctuations that in some cases may lead to almost local extinctions (Santos-Reis, 1989). Although otters are wide ranging, they are a water-obligate species with a distribution restricted to aqua- Fig. 1 – Study area and the location of the highways and national roads surveyed (Alentejo Province, Portugal). 77 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 304 B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E RVAT I O N tic environments, namely freshwater streams and dams (Trindade et al., 1998; Barbosa et al., 2003). Western polecats, although not strictly water dependent, show a high association with aquatic environments (Mestre et al., 2007) where they find high diversity and availability of prey (e.g., amphibians and crayfish). Stone martens, genets and European wildcats are forest-dwelling species (Santos-Reis et al., 2004), but the European wildcat suffered a significant decline mainly due to habitat destruction, prey decline (mostly rabbits in the south), human persecution and, to a small extent, hybridization with feral cats (Stahl and Artois, 1991; Lozano et al., 2007; Oliveira et al., 2007). They exist now in small and fragmented populations (Cabral et al., 2005). 1 4 2 ( 2 0 0 9 ) 3 0 1 –3 1 3 2.2. Road-kill surveys Surveys on NR were conducted by one observer by car at low speed (30 km h 1), twice a month from January 2004 to December 2006. The observer drove along the roadside in both directions searching the road and its verge for carnivore fatalities. For each observed casualty we recorded species, age and its geographic coordinates using a global positioning system. Road-kills on HW were obtained from the BRISA database for the same period. HW observations were recorded by BRISA staff during routine road checks, usually carried out several times a day. Information recorded included date of collection, species, and location (at a scale resolution of 100 m). When Table 1 – Definition and description of the variables used in the modeling. Variable name Definition Road related variables T_ROAD ROAD_VEG ROAD_TOPO Mean (min.–máx.) Type of road: 1- HW 2- NR Roadside vegetation: 1 – presence; 0 - absence Roadside topography measured as the distance from the road pavement until the roadside vegetation (m) limit: ( ) buried road or (+) raised road. Distance to the nearest curve (m) Number passages (above and below grade) Daily traffic volume at night (number vehicles/day) Daily traffic volume at daya (number vehicles/day) D_CURVE NUMBER PASSAGES TRAFFIC Landscape related variables ELEVATION URBAN INT_AGRI EXT_AGRI OAKWOOD PFOREST SHRUB D_STREAM D_ROADS D_TOWN 1.55 (1–2) 0.31 (0–1) 0.40 ( 100 to 10) 1896 (0–17 796) 0.88 (0–6) 7000 (2712–15 586) 977 (330–2494) Mean altitude (m) % Habitat type within 500 m radius: Urban Intensive agriculture Extensive agriculture Cork oak woodland Production forest Shrub cover measured within a 500 m radius (%) Minimum distance to nearest water (m) Minimum distance to other roads (m) Distance to nearest town (m) 88 (0–400) 4.86 (0–100) 10.85 (0–100) 27.3 (0–100) 12.55 (0–100) 14.42 (0–100) 880 (0–10 406) 1056 (0–6664) 4085 (50–11 159) Road kills/100km/year a we used traffic at day time for the Egyptian mongoose model due to its diurnal activity (Palomares and Delibes, 1992) unlike all other carnivores that are nocturnal (Santos-Reis and Petrucci-Fonseca, 1999). 25 20 15 10 5 0 red fox weasel Western polecat stone marten Eurasian badger otter genet Egyptian mongoose Fig. 2 – Frequency of carcasses and the respective standard error found on the national roads and highways surveyed (January 2004 to December 2006). 78 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 806 8 68 8 67 7 75 7 45 7 59 8 82 6 110 6 89 7 61 8 31 7 Total number of road-kills Total number of species 57 7 2 9 17 5 5 10 1 5 5 2 4 4 62 8 8 10 8 13 6 8 1 4 4 4 9 10 22 11 1 6 3 2 9 2 1 2 4 1 7 7 5 7 9 343 12 20 132 81 28 80 110 25 1 1 10 11 6 8 6 31 43 25 33 2 2 9 0 1 4 8 9 10 Fox Weasel Western polecat Stone marten Eurasian badger Otter Genet Egyptian mongoose 11 3 3 14 7 3 11 10 10 1 5 12 6 1 8 18 33 1 1 25 8 55 4 58 September August July January February March April May June Month Species Table 2 – Monthly distribution of carnivore road-kills in the study area (January 2004 and December 2006). October November December All casualties of given species B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E RVAT I O N 305 1 4 2 ( 2 0 0 9 ) 3 0 1 –3 1 3 animal carcasses were in good condition, they were collected and frozen to allow age identification by the authors, as well as the validation of the species identification. We used the information provided by the teeth wear to identify the approximate age of an animal when it died and classed specimens as adults – definitive and completely developed teeth, or juveniles – teeth with very little wear and pointed incisors (Harris, 1978). Non-identifiable individuals were pooled as ‘‘other carnivores (including domestic animals)’’ in the original data set and not used in the statistical analyses. 2.3. Temporal analysis For the most frequently observed species, we tested the hypothesis that the general behavior of activity and mobility related to phenological biological periods might be related to road mortality. We considered five biological periods: birth, provisioning of young, mother-young hunting, dispersal, and breeding (Blanco, 1998). Each represents different behavioral scenarios with putatively different levels of mobility. For example, just before birth females tend to den and move less, whereas when young are being provisioned adult female movements increase (see Blanco, 1998; Piñero, 2002). We used Chi-square tests to determine if differences among observed counts of road casualties in different biological periods were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Exact binomial tests were used to determine if there were significant differences in the occurred number of accidents among biological periods (Quinn and Keough, 2002). 2.4. Spatial analysis We used logistic regression to identify which environmental and road related variables best predicted the likelihood of casualties for the carnivore guild, and for each species in particular, following Hosmer and Lemeshow (1989) procedures. We classed the HW and NR into 500 m segments (n = 1125) and plotted road-kill data onto the road network. Each segment was coded either 1 (with road-kills) or 0 (without roadkills) and described in terms of sixteen explanatory variables (Table 1) obtained from field measurements or from a geographic information system. We also, created a surface of distances among the objects (e.g., curves, landmarks such as towns, roads and streams) and then overlaid the mid-point of road segments to get the average distances to the objects. Pearson rank correlations were run to test for relationships among explanatory variables (Quinn and Keough, 2002). We built regression models only for species with more than 70 segments coded as 1. First, we examined the ability of each variable to predict mortality using univariate logistic regression. We selected only variables for the model when the significance of the Wald test was <0.1. Next, we used stepwise forward regression procedures to build the models, leaving out 20% of the original data for cross-validation procedures in order to evaluate the explanatory power of each model. Model robustness was assessed by comparing the cross-validation classification accuracies between the modeling sample and the validation sub-sample. Residuals were tested for spatial autocorrelation using Moran I test implemented in the CrimeStats III (Ned Levine, 2007) using a Monte Carlo randomization test 79 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 306 B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E RVAT I O N (999 simulations). All statistical calculations were carried out using SPSS 15.0 for Windows software (2006 SPSS, Inc.). 1 4 2 ( 2 0 0 9 ) 3 0 1 –3 1 3 (18%), while the proportion of juveniles for the remaining carnivore species varied between 2% and 10% of records. 3.2. Results 3.1. Species and age composition of road-kills A total of 806 carnivores road-kills were recorded over the three year period, and included eight carnivore species; only European wildcats were not recorded. On average we found 47 ind./100 km/year killed on the road, with red fox suffering the highest mortality (n = 343, 20 ind./100 km/year), followed by stone marten (n = 132, 8 ind./100 km/year), Egyptian mongoose (n = 110, 6 ind./100 km/year) and both Eurasian badger and genet (n = 81, n = 80, 5 ind./100 km/year) (Fig. 2). Otters (n = 28), Western polecats (n = 20), and weasels (n = 12) were less frequently killed. We were able to assess age of 241 (30%) of all observations. The majority of carcasses were adults; red foxes had the highest proportion of juveniles 50 Chi-square test=22 p<0.05-05 b b 40 b 30 20 10 c a 0 birth feeding young hunting with dispersal mother casualties/period/year Eurasian badger 15 10 c a c b 5 0 hunting with mother dispersal casualties/period/year birth b 20 a 15 10 c 5 20 birth c hunting with dispersal mother breeding Chi-square Chi-sq e test=2.76 p>0.05 20 15 10 5 0 birth feeding young hunting with dispersal mother breeding Chi-square test=13,2 t st 13,2 p<0.05 a c 15 10 feeding young genet breeding Egyptian mongoose c 0 Chi-square test=10.44 p<0.05 20 Chi-square test=18.03p<0.05 stone marten 25 breeding casualties/period/year casualties/period/year red fox Temporal pattern of road-kills The number of road casualties varied throughout the year (Table 2). The highest mortality of the carnivore guild as a whole was recorded in late spring (May: n = 89 and June: n = 110). Spring and early summer was a critical high mortality period for red fox (42% of casualties between May and July) and stone marten (36% between May and June). For badger, genet and Egyptian mongoose, road-kills were concentrated earlier in the year, corresponding to 21% (February), 24% (March and April) and 28% (April and May) of annual casualties, respectively (Table 2). The number of road-kills differed significantly among biological periods (p < 0.05) for all species except for genet (n = 80, p > 0.05) (Fig. 3). Higher casualties were observed when red fox and stone marten were feeding young (on average, 44 and 24 road-kills per month over the 3 year period, respectively) (Fig. 3). Nevertheless, while we found significant differences casualties/period/year 3. a a b 5 0 birth hunting with mother dispersal breeding Fig. 3 – Mean road mortality rate per biological period (road-kills/month) throughout the three years for red fox, stone marten, Eurasian badger, genet and Egyptian mongoose. Same letters indicate no significant differences (p > 0.05) and different letters indicate significant differences (p < 0.05) between pairs of life periods in exact binomial test. 80 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 1 0.229(**) D_ROADS 1 0.045 0.018 D_STREAMS 3.3. 1 0.035 0.078(**) 0.067(*) SHRUBS 1 0.361(**) 0.015 0.075(*) 0.117(**) PFORES 1 0.283(**) 0.236(**) 0.015 0.032 0.091(**) OAKWOOD 1 0.155(**) 0.381(**) 0.162(**) 0.130(**) 0.027 0.02 0.146(**) 1 0.125(**) 0.140(**) .249(**) 0.072(*) 0.117(**) 0.042 0.042 0.163(**) 1 0.003 0.052 0.068(*) 0.002 0.108(**) 0.047 0.106(**) 0.127(**) 0.225(**) 1 0.322(**) 0.033 0.003 0.122(**) 0.016 0.163(**) 0.110(**) 0.220(**) 0.198(**) 0.318(**) 0.316(**) 0.002 0.001 0.106(**) 0.024 .098(**) 0.065(*) 0.246(**) 0.199(**) 0.309(**) 1 (***) 1 0.005 0.017 0.092(**) 0.137(**) 0.034 0.087(**) 0.112(**) 0.021 0.035 0.088(**) 0.021 0.072(*) 1 0.230(**) 0.27 6(**) 0.23 2(**) 0.124(**) 0.134(**) 0.08 4(**) 0.007 0.01 0.134(**) 0.024 0.355(**) 0.114(**) 0.062(*) 1 0.070(*) 0.121(**) 0.058 0.046 0.016 0.01 0.017 0.04 0.043 0.032 0.031 0.045 0.04 0.025 1 0.085(**) 0.052 0.094(**) 0.033 0.052 0.057 0.094(**) 0.005 0.107(**) 0.005 0.056 0.181(**) 0.035 0.016 0.033 (*) Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level. (**) Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level. (***) Were not used in the same model: TRAFFIC_D used for diurnal species and TRAFFIC_N used for nocturnal species. 1 0.488(**) 0.309(**) 0.403(**) 0.046 0.011 0.036 EXT_AGRI INT_AGRI URB ELEVATION TRAFFIC_N TRAFFIC_D N_PASSAGES VISIBILITY ROAD TOPO ROAD VEG T ROADS 1 0.129(**) 0.190(**) 0.446(**) 0.430(**) 0.096(**) 0.026 0.02 0.234(**) 0.077(*) 0.03 0.112(**) 0.048 0.055 0.238(**) 0.099(**) 0.122(**) T_ROADS ROAD_VEG ROAD_TOPO VISIBILITY N_PASSAGES TRAFFIC_D TRAFFIC_N ELEVATION URB INT_AGRI EXT_AGRI OAKWOOD PFORES SHRUBS D_STREAMS D_ROADS D_TOWNS Table 3 – Pearson correlation coefficient between pairs of explanatory variables. 307 1 4 2 ( 2 0 0 9 ) 3 0 1 –3 1 3 for stone marten between the period when young were being fed and other periods, we did not find significant differences in red fox road mortalities when females were feeding the cubs, hunting with the young, or during the juvenile dispersal period. Eurasian badger casualties occurred more frequently during the dispersal and breeding periods and the birth and hunting periods were significantly different from the other periods. Egyptian mongooses were killed on the road more frequently during the breeding period. 1 D_TOWNS B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E RVAT I O N Spatial pattern of road-kills The Pearson correlation matrix did not show any significant correlation (r > 0.7) among the explanatory variables (Table 3). Overall, the models moderately fit the data (Table 4). No significant spatial autocorrelation was found on the residuals of the models, except for red fox (Fig. 4). To correct the spatial autocorrelation we only used road segments with red fox road-kill that were at least 1000 m apart using the remaining segments for validation (Fig. 4). The correct classification rates were reasonable (>65%) for the stone marten model (n = 194, 69%) and Eurasian badger (n = 124, 68%). The red fox (n = 400, 60%), genet (n = 134, 59%) and Egyptian mongoose (n = 164, 59%) showed lower correct classification rates. For genet and Egyptian mongoose the results were due primarily to the high proportion of false negative prediction errors (Type II Error), suggesting that these models may only have utility for explaining the presence of road-kill. The validation sample showed the same general overall classification rate but the red fox and stone marten models showed a weaker performance indicating a limited capability for model extrapolation. Habitat and human disturbance variables as well as visibility and type of road explained the occurrence of the carnivore guild fatalities (Table 4). The mortality of red fox, in particular, was related to the number of passages and the longer distance to urban areas. NR and habitat cover (% cork oak woodland) were important variables related to stone marten mortalities on the road. The likelihood of Eurasian badgers being hit by vehicles was low in areas with a high human presence (urban areas and presence of other roads on the vicinity). Egyptian mongoose and genet road-kill were found in areas with low visibility, i.e., close to curves. Traffic did not enter in the models but it appears that the higher traffic volume may have acted as a barrier to crossing. Traffic data was classified into three classes according with Jenk’s optimization algorithm (ESRI, 1996) that minimizes the variation within each class. We reported mortality in 54% of road segments with low traffic (330–763 vehicles/ night), in 53% with intermediate traffic volumes (764– 1271 vehicles/night) and only in 35% of high traffic (1272– 2494 vehicles/night) road segments. Although the distribution of each road-kill was not evenly distributed on roadways (from 9% to 26% of road segments – Table 5), the carnivore guild casualties was widely distributed (47% of the road segments), which complicates the implementation of mitigation measures. Additionally, our models indicated that a high proportion of road segments (57–87%) show >50% likelihood for a carnivore vehicle collision (Table 5 and Fig. 5). 81 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 308 1 4 2 ( 2 0 0 9 ) 3 0 1 –3 1 3 B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E RVAT I O N Table 4 – Logistic regression of five species models with the selected variables, coefficients (b) standard error (SE(b)), Wald test and p-value, model accuracy and validation. Species b Variables SE Model accuracy (%)a Wald p-Value %ccp Validation (%)a %cca %tcc %ccp %cca %tcc Red fox URBAN N_PASSAGES Constant 0.022 0.373 0.278 0.0110 0.0980 0.14d2 4.154 14.370 3.818 0.042 0.000 0.051 60 60 60 94 18 56 Stone marten NR OAKWOOD Constant 1.256 0.012 1.417 0.004 0.333 0.353 8.447 14.275 16.108 0.000 0.004 0.000 64 73 69 64 67 65 Eurasian badger URBAN D_ROAD Constant 0.062 0.001 0.367 0.0300 0.0000 0.2870 4.371 8.019 1.636 0.037 0.005 0.201 68 68 68 67 73 70 Genet D_CURVE Constant 0.0003 0.373 0.0001 0.2110 7.917 3.127 0.005 0.077 78 40 59 81 41 62 Egyptian mongoose D_CURVE Constant 0.0002 0.302 0.0008 0.1940 6.073 2.433 0.014 0.119 76 42 59 80 45 63 a %ccp – Correct classification of presences, %cca – correct classification of absences, %tcc – total correct classification. re fox red stone st marten 0.0 1.0 2000 4000 4 6000 8000 8 1000 1 12000 1 Moran I Moran I 0 -0.5 0.5 0.0 -1.0 0 distance lag (m) 2000 4000 4 6000 8000 8 10000 1 12000 1 distance lag (m) Eur Eurasian badger genet 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Moran I Moran I 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 -0.5 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 -1.0 distance lag (m) distance lag (m) Egypt Egyptian mongoose Moran I 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 distance lag (m) Fig. 4 – Moran I correlogram of residuals from the logistic models for each species. None of the values was statistically different from 0 (p > 0.05). The red fox model correlogram of residual after the spatial autocorrelation correction. 82 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E RVAT I O N 309 1 4 2 ( 2 0 0 9 ) 3 0 1 –3 1 3 Table 5 – Proportion of road segments with road-kills and number of road-kills from observed data and predicted by logistic regression models (50% and 80% of probability of being killed). Species Observations Logistic regression models 50%c % Road segmentsa Red fox stone marten Eurasian badger Genet Egyptian mongoose a b c d e 4. 26 11 7 7 9 80%c Road-killb % Road segmentsd Road-kille % Road segmentsd Road-kille 1–6 1–6 1–2 1–3 1–3 47 87 57 63 67 60 95 76 50 79 0.3 30 21 – – 0.3 61 30 – – % Of 500 m road segments with road-kill (n = 1125). Range of road-kill per 500 m road segment. Likelihood of being killed from the logistic model. % Of road segments with likelihood of being killed by logistic regression models. % Of road-kill included in road segments with likelihood of being killed by logistic regression models. Discussion Identifying key factors related to carnivore casualties through spatial and temporal patterns assessment provides a useful tool not only for road managers charged with road safety but also is valuable for environmental managers who try to minimize this additional source of mortality in the context of a comprehensive wildlife conservation strategy. Because Fig. 5 – Road casualties probabilities for each carnivore species given by logistic regression models on the monitored roads. 83 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 310 B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E RVAT I O N the guild of small and medium-sized carnivores surveyed in this study is composed mainly by wide-ranging and habitat generalist species (Sunquist and Sunquist, 2001), this complicates attempts to find a simple solution to reduce road mortality. Nevertheless, our findings highlight three simple but important key mitigation messages: (1) adults of the most common species tend to be the most commonly hit on the road; (2) with the exception of genets, all carnivores were more vulnerable during specific life-history phenological periods, and (3) habitat, human made structures or the proximity to human habitation and road related features have variable impacts on the likelihood of carnivores vehicle collisions. Overall, the high rate of carnivore casualties we reported here may be explained by their abundance patterns, as seen in other studies (Baker et al., 2004; Guter et al., 2005). Indeed, the five most frequently killed carnivores are the most known common species statewide (Santos-Reis and Petrucci-Fonseca, 1999). Although weasels and Western polecats are also widely distributed in Portugal (Santos-Reis and Mathias, 1996), the lower number of casualties may suggest that potential mortalities were not detected by this sampling method (freshly-killed corpses are often taken by birds of prey or other larger predators) (Love et al., 2000) or perhaps more reasonably, that the species abundance is local and low in the region. Alternatively, weasels and Western polecats may be less susceptible to road mortality because of their natural history traits; a previous study (Grilo et al., 2008) showed that both species avoided highway underpasses and culverts, strongly suggesting road avoidance. Road-kills showed seasonal patterns that were consistent with individual carnivore life-history phenologies. The higher incidence of road casualties may be related to the higher mobility periods, e.g., dispersal and breeding. As expected, in these biological periods, Eurasian badgers and Egyptian mongooses were more susceptible to road traffic. Because individuals need to move from their territory through landscape to find new places to establish or mates for reproduction, they might have been unfamiliar with roads. Interestingly, feeding young was the most vulnerable period for red fox and stone marten parents. According to Blanco (1998) they visit the breeding sites several times to feed their cubs and as the cubs grew, the number of visits increase to as many as 10 per night. Female mortality is particularly critical during this period because cubs are totally dependent. In contrast, genets did not appear to be more vulnerable during any particular biological period; they do not have a restricted breeding period as other species and therefore, differences in their movement patterns are difficult to detect throughout the year (Blanco, 1998). Clear spatial patterns emerged in the road-kill data; in general, we observed a close relationship between preferred carnivore habitats and low human disturbance with carnivore fatalities, and the vulnerability of some species to particular features of roads. Habitat type was an important contributor only for stone marten model, realistically reflecting the habitat preferences of this species (Virgós and Garcia, 2002; SantosReis et al., 2004). Even though considered a generalist species using a wide range of habitats and food items, stone marten are predominantly associated with cork oak woodlands, shrublands, and riparian galleries (Santos-Reis et al., 2004). 84 1 4 2 ( 2 0 0 9 ) 3 0 1 –3 1 3 We also observed that a high degree of disturbance (urban areas and the presence of other roads) was an important factor related to the absence of red fox and Eurasian badger fatalities. These results suggest that the cumulative effect of human activities may influence dispersal and daily movements and may therefore have impact on the wildlife abundance. Contrary to our expectations, traffic volume did not significantly influence carnivore mortality on the road. This issue has been well documented in previous studies of mammals (Clarke et al., 1998; Alexander et al., 2005; Orlowski and Nowak, 2006). To our knowledge, no studies have examined how traffic volume affects carnivores when they are active. In this study, we recorded a higher mortality in low and intermediate traffic volume road segments, suggesting the avoidance of high traffic volume (1200 vehicles/night) roads by carnivores. Interestingly, our stone marten mortality data show significant associations with national roads. Most national roads are narrow and at the same level as the surrounding area, hence appear integrated into the landscape. In contrast, highways are wider and mostly elevated or below the level of the surrounding landscape. It is unknown if this configuration has a barrier effect on stone marten. This observation, in combination with traffic volume, width of highways, and regularly managed highway verges may discourage stone marten from crossing highways. Surprisingly, we found that the passages were related with red fox road mortality which are commonly suggested as a mitigation measure to prevent road casualties (Forman et al., 2003; Iuell et al., 2003; Bissonette and Adair, 2008). Moreover, a previous study revealed that red foxes regularly used culverts and passages (Grilo et al., 2008). As shown in Table 3, the number of passages was significantly related with the presence of favorable habitat, streams, and high elevations, where we expected to have a higher abundance of carnivores. It may be that number of passages per se is not directly related to road-kill but rather that their proximity to good habitat pre-disposes animals using these habitats to a higher potential for a vehicle collision. When fatalities are widespread over the length of roads, modeling using binary data (presence/absence of fatalities) shows poor ability to identify small areas with a higher probability of collisions. However, our results provide evidence that two key mitigation measures should help to reduce WVC in Portugal. The first involves the improvement of existing crossings with buried and small mesh size fence to guide the individuals towards to the passages, in road segments with high traffic volume (>1200 vehicles/night) and located in preferred carnivore habitats. The second mitigation involves cutting or removal of dense vegetation in verges of road segments with curves to aid motorists in seeing animals about to cross. A number of important questions remain to be answered. Even with common species, the effects of the roaded landscape on population viability still need clarification. No doubt, this will vary by location and species. Further work on barrier effects and mortality, with emphasis on systematic surveys of population sizes near and away from roads, behaviour, and gene flow (e.g. Riley et al., 2006; Baker et al., 2007; Beaudry et al., 2008), especially for less vagile species, would help refine Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E RVAT I O N our knowledge of road effects. Long term, consistently collected data is not commonly collected for most species, but would aid immensely in distinguishing the spatial and temporal patterns of WVC hotspots. Modeling WVC of less common species, assessing the relationship between density and the likelihood of road mortality, as well addressing the relationship between WVC of carnivores, prey abundance, and vegetation composition along verges would certainly provide key insights to assist the development of mitigation priorities that can minimize the adverse effects of roads on wildlife. Acknowledgments C. Grilo was supported by a Ph.D. Grant (SFRH/BD/10600/2002) from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia. Additional funding was provided by BRISA Auto-Estradas de Portugal S.A. This work was only possible due to the help of Clara Silva, Carla Baltazar and Luı́s Gomes for carnivore road-kills records and also all FCUL students that join us in the field work. Many thanks to Susan Durham for statistical support. Thanks are due to Fernando Ascensão and Francisco Petrucci-Fonseca, for suggestions on previous drafts, and to J.P. Metzger and two anonymous reviewers for insightful and helpful comments on the final manuscript. R E F E R E N C E S Alexander, S.M., Waters, N.M., Paquet, P.C., 2005. Traffic volume and highway permeability for a mammalian community in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Canadian Geographer 49, 321–331. Baker, P.J., Harris, S., Robertson, C.P.J., Saunders, G., White, P.C.L., 2004. 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Traffic Injury Prevention 6, 56–59. 87 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores Paper III Response of carnivores to existing highway culverts and underpasses: implications for road planning and mitigation. Clara Grilo, John A. Bissonette, Margarida Santos-Reis This paper is published in Biodiversity and Conservation (2008) 17, 1685-1699 89 Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 DOI 10.1007/s10531-008-9374-8 ORIGINAL PAPER Response of carnivores to existing highway culverts and underpasses: implications for road planning and mitigation Clara Grilo Æ John A. Bissonette Æ Margarida Santos-Reis Received: 14 June 2007 / Accepted: 13 March 2008 / Published online: 26 March 2008 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008 Abstract Roads with high traffic volumes are a source of animal mortality, can disrupt normal animal movements and dispersal, and may represent a potentially serious threat to wildlife population stability and viability. Retrofitting existing structures built for other purposes (e.g., drainage culverts or small below-grade access roads) to facilitate wildlife crossing by animals and to reduce mortality may be expensive if modifications to the existing structures themselves were involved. However, the environmental context surrounding these structures may influence the willingness of animals to cross, and management of some of these attributes may enhance the attractiveness of these structures. Culverts and underpasses are two common structures along roads in Portugal. We quantified the response of small and medium-sized carnivores to the presence of both types of existing passages by determining: (1) frequency of use; (2) whether use differed by type of passage, and if so; (3) by examining if associated environmental attributes might explain the differences observed. We surveyed 57 different passages along 252 km of highway with a total sampling effort of 2,330 passage trap-days. The mean passage rate for carnivores combined was 0.7 complete passages per crossing structure per day. Crossings by weasel, polecat, otter, and wildcat were infrequent or absent. Red fox, badger, genet and Egyptian mongoose used the crossing structures regularly and without obvious preference; stone marten preferred underpasses. Regression analyses showed the frequency of use by carnivores varied with structural, landscape, road-related features, and human disturbance with 17 of 26 (65%) attributes being significant. Larger passages with vegetation close to the passage entrances, favorable habitat in the surrounding area, and low disturbance by humans were important key features to regular use by the guild of species studied. Mitigation planning in areas with ecological significance for carnivores will be beneficial. Structural attributes and human disturbances are more difficult or expensive to change, C. Grilo (&) M. Santos-Reis Departamento de Biologia Animal/Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, C2 5° Piso, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal e-mail: [email protected] J. A. Bissonette USGS Utah Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Wildland Resources, College of Natural Resources, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-5290, USA 123 91 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 1686 Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 even though related significantly to crossing use. Management of vegetation at passage entrances and restricting human use near passages in carnivore suitable areas may substantially improve crossing attractiveness for the guild of carnivore species. Keywords Carnivores Conservation Habitat connectivity Non-wildlife passages Road design Introduction Increasing road density has emerged recently as a major conservation issue (Noss et al. 1996; Trombulak and Frissel 2000; Forman et al. 2003). Wide roads with high traffic volumes represent a serious threat to wildlife by introducing an additional source of mortality (Forman and Alexander 1998; Gerlach and Musolf 2000; Trombulak and Frissel 2000; Iuell et al. 2003; Epps et al. 2005). Furthermore, roads can disrupt animal movement and dispersal, creating effective barriers and resulting in the loss of landscape connectivity. Highways, in particular, often are avoided by wildlife as a consequence of increasing urbanization (Ruediger 1998; Hlaváč and Andĕl 2002; Whittington et al. 2005). In some mammalian carnivores there is evidence of vulnerability to road network expansions (Ferreras et al. 1992; Haas 2000; Cain et al. 2003; Percy 2003; Kramer-Schadt et al. 2004) because of their relatively large ranges and low densities (Sunquist and Sunquist 2001). Some carnivores face threats of extinction in some regions. For example, Van der Zee et al. (1992) explicitly linked badger population declines in the Netherlands during the late 1980s to high road density; Thiel (1985) found that wolves disappeared when road densities exceeded 0.6 km km-2. According to Chruszcz et al. (2003), in Banff National Park, Canada, grizzly bears were found closer to roads with low traffic volumes. In Spain, road density impacted fox and stone marten movements (Blanco 1988; Lopéz-Martin et al. 1997) resulting in home range changes. Similarly, Whittington et al. (2004) reported that roads increased the tortuosity of wolf movement pathways in areas of high road density. Given these data, it is clear that barrier effects in particular, have emerged as a significant threat to the viability of some carnivore populations world-wide. Thus, an opportunity to minimize barrier effects includes the adaptation of existing transportation infrastructures to facilitate passage and restore large-scale habitat connectivity. Passages designed specifically to increase road permeability have been constructed for some groups of vertebrates (Foster and Humphrey 1995; Keller and Pfister 1997; Clevenger and Waltho 2000) but they are not common in Portugal. However, because existing structures built for other purposes (e.g., drainage culverts, and below-grade local access roads) are numerous and may often coincide with preferential crossing locations, they have received increasing attention as potential valuable alternatives to mitigate barrier effects (Hunt et al. 1987; Yanes et al. 1995; Rodriguez et al. 1996; Clevenger et al. 2001; Cain et al. 2003; Mata et al. 2005). The use of existing passages by carnivores is relatively welldescribed (Foster and Humphrey 1995; Clevenger et al. 2001; Gloyne and Clevenger 2001; Cain et al. 2003; Dodd et al. 2004; Clevenger and Waltho 2005). There is evidence that carnivores do not cross highways at random, but rather focus their crossing activity in locations that vary with passage characteristics, road-related attributes, surrounding habitat characteristics, and human disturbance levels (Barnum 2003; Rodriquez et al. 1997; Clevenger and Waltho 2000; Mata et al. 2005). Therefore, managing the habitat surrounding in existing crossing structures may well be a cost effective way of increasing their use (Iuell et al. 2003). 123 92 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 1687 In the Mediterranean region, a world biodiversity hotspot (Myers et al. 2000), some studies have investigated the role of existing structures and their importance in restoring landscape permeability for some small and medium-sized carnivores (Yanes et al. 1995; Rosell et al. 1997; Rodriguez et al. 1997; Mata et al. 2005; Ascensão and Mira 2007). However, there is little consensus on whether the type of passage significantly influences crossing rates. Rosell et al. (1997) found no significant differences related to size of passage; Mata et al. (2005) reported that most carnivores in Spain (except weasels) preferred larger structures; Yanes et al. (1995) and Ascensão and Mira (2007) found some carnivore species used smaller culverts regularly. To examine the importance of passage size on restoring carnivore habitat connectivity, we collected quantitative data on the response of small and medium-sized carnivores to the most common existing structures along selected highways in Portugal: culverts and underpasses. Culverts are small-sized circular or rectangular tubes that allow for water flow from surrounding drainages, whereas underpasses are larger passages usually built for passage by farm vehicles. We first sought to determine how often carnivores used crossing structures. Second, we were interested in whether differences in passage use were related to structure size, or to measurable environmental variables associated with each structure. We expected a regular use of existing passages by carnivores but different crossing rates for each type of passage. Specifically, we predicted that both fossorial (fox and badger) and ground-dwelling (mongoose) species would use the culverts more often whereas arboreal (stone marten and genet) species would use the larger underpasses. Additionally, we expected that cover would explain some of the variance in passages use. Study area and methods Study area The study was conducted along 252 km of two highways (A2—94 km and A6—158 km) in Alentejo province, southern Portugal between March and September 2004. Both highways are four-lane roads and are bordered on both sides by unburied livestock exclusion fences (1.5 m high, 10 cm mesh size). Between 1998 and 2001, reconstructed stretches of both highways were opened to traffic. Currently A2 and A6 have an average daily traffic volume of *13,000 and *6,000 vehicles/day, respectively. The densities of the different crossing structures were similar for both highways and averaged: 1.22 circular culverts/km (1 9 1 and 1.5 9 1.5 m), 0.34 box culverts/km (2 9 2, 3 9 3, 4 9 4 and 5 9 5 m), and 0.47 underpasses/km (5 m height and 8 m width). Mean distance between crossing structures was *390 m, and ranged from 5 to 1,566 m. The study area was characterized by its vast plains, with elevations ranging from *200 to 500 m, and by its Mediterranean climate. The region was originally covered by woodlands and scrublands, but has been modified by human activity for centuries, and especially since the 1930s. The resulting landscape is highly fragmented, with about half of the area occupied by cropland. The remaining area is dominated by cork oak (Quercus suber) woods in the west and holm oak (Quercus ilex) woods in the east. Primary human activities include cork extraction, livestock, agriculture, and hunting. Three Natura 2000 sites (Sado, Cabrela, and Monfurado) are located in the province. Human population density is *43 inhabitants km-2 (INE 2002) and the road network density averages 0.25 km km-2, about half of the mean national road network density of 0.49 km km-2 (IgeoE 1999). 123 93 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 1688 Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 The carnivore community in the study area is diverse and comprised of nine species (Santos-Reis and Petrucci-Fonseca 1999): fox (Vulpes vulpes), weasel (Mustela nivalis), polecat (Mustela putorius), stone marten (Martes foina), badger (Meles meles), otter (Lutra lutra), genet (Genetta genetta), Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) and wildcat (Felis silvestris). The wildcat is legally classified as threatened (Vulnerable), while the polecat is classified as Data Deficient (Cabral et al. 2005). The otter, although classed as Least Concern in Portugal (Cabral et al. 2005) is of conservation concern in Europe (Near Threatened, IUCN 2006). Crossing structures and monitoring A sample of 57 crossing structures was selected for monitoring of carnivore use along the A2 and A6 highways (Fig. 1), and included two structural designs: (1) 44 circular culverts (1 and 1.5 m of diameter) and 13 underpasses (5 m high, 8 m wide). On average, the minimum distance between crossings selected for this study was 2 km (roughly equivalent to the average diameter of carnivore home range, as documented by Palomares and Delibes 1994; Rosalino et al. 2004; Santos-Reis et al. 2004; Rondinini et al. 2006) in order to minimize the effects of spatial autocorrelation and help insure independence of observations (Guisan and Zimmermann 2000). Field work took place during the driest period of the year when passages were least likely to be flooded. We used marble dust to detect tracks during 20 consecutive days in spring and 20 days in summer, 2004. A dust plot 1 m wide and 3–10 mm deep was put on the ground at both ends of each culvert and in the middle of the underpass, checked every 5 days, and carnivore tracks identified (Lawrence and Brown 1973; Blanco 1998; Piñero 2002). On average, we checked each crossing eight times during the monitoring periods. Adverse weather conditions and livestock and human activities occasionally prevented clear identification of tracks, hence we only recorded data when a correct assessment of Fig. 1 Study area and passages location along the A2 and A6 highways 123 94 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 1689 animal sign was possible. Each record included species ID, number of tracks, and whether the tracks completely or partially crossed through the passage). In selected passages, infra-red digital CamtrackÒ cameras were used at both entrances to validate track identifications. Data analysis To calculate the crossing rate, we summed the number of times a given species used the passage (complete passage) and divided by the number of operative days the passage was sampled for each season. We also quantified partial passage, which occurred when the tracks were not found in both passage entrances in the same direction and infra-red cameras detect enter and exit of the same species in a short period of time. In general, crossing rates tended to be higher in spring than in other seasons, with significant differences between spring and summer (Wilcoxon test, P \ 0.05), hence for the analysis, we compared the mean crossing rates between the two seasons. To evaluate the effect of passage size on number of crossings, we removed the confounding effects of the surrounding landscape by using two approaches: (1) we analyzed 26 crossing structures (13 circular culverts plus 13 underpasses) placed along both highways; and (2) we compared six paired culverts and underpasses. Mann–Whitney U-tests (P \ 0.05) were conducted to test for significant differences in use of passages based on size and Wilcoxon signed rank tests for differences in use for six paired passages. To assess the influence of environmental variables on passage use, we used all sampled crossing structures (n = 57); each was characterized according to 32 independent variables (Table 1). Structural variables included crossing structure dimensions: width, height, and an openness ratio (Yanes et al. 1995), distance from highway to passage, and year of construction. Landscape attributes at a micro-scale included percentage of five land use types measured within a 500 m radius of the crossing structure: urban, intensive agriculture, extensive agriculture, oak woodlands, and production forest (Pinus spp.; Eucalyptus spp.). In order to evaluate the influence of landscape variables on the passages use, we also estimated the proportion of the five habitat cover types mentioned above within a circle with a radius equivalent to the carnivores’ home range around each passage. We used the home range size of 300 ha for stone marten, genet and mongoose data (see Palomares and Delibes 1991, 1993; Santos-Reis et al. 2004), and 500 ha for fox and badgers (see Rosalino et al. 2004). Distances from passage to the nearest forest cover, as well as the proportion and average height of shrubs within 10 m were also measured. In order to evaluate the role of streams and associated vegetation, streams were characterized by width, direction, and distance to the highway. Road-related attributes included: number of additional existing structures in a 1,000 m buffer around each passage, distance to the next nearest crossing structure, and average distance from each structure to the nearest two structures. Human disturbance attributes included 2004 daily average traffic volume (BRISA, unpublished data), intensity of human activity, minimum distance to other roads and average distance to urban areas. Because of the proportional nature of the response variable (species crossing rates), we assumed that errors followed a binomial distribution (Zuur et al. 2007). Therefore, generalized linear models with a logarithmic function were fitted to the data to investigate the influence of environmental attributes near passages on species crossing rates (Faraway 2004). Only variables that yielded significant results (P \ 0.10) for species-specific crossing rates in the bivariate regression analysis were used as predictors for subsequent 123 95 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 1690 Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 Table 1 Names, definitions, mode and range of values of variables used in the analysis Variables Definition Mode Range values Structural Width Crossing structure width (m) 1 1–9 Height Crossing structure height (m) 1 1–6.2 Openness Crossing structure openness (= width 9 length/height) 0.03 0.03–1.33 Landscape Urban_500 m Urban within 500 m radius (%) 0 0–10 Intensive agriculture_500 m Intensive agriculture within 500 m radius (%) 0 0–50 Extensive agriculture_500 m Extensive agriculture within 500 m radius (%) 0 0–100 Oak woodland_500 m Oak woodland within 500 m radius (%) 0 0–100 Production forest_500 m Production forest within 500 m radius (%) 0 0–20 Urban_hr Urban within home range areaa (%) 0 0–7 Intensive agriculture_hr Intensive agriculture within home range areaa (%) 0 0–100 Extensive agriculture_hr Extensive agriculture within home range areaa (%) 0 0–95 Oak woodland_hr Oak woodland within home range areaa (%) 0 0–98 Production forest_hr Production forest within home range areaa (%) 0 0–7 % Shrub cover_500 m Shrub cover measured within 500 m radius (%) 0 0–100 Distance to forest cover Minimum distance from the passage to forest cover (m) 0 0–2,000 Density of vegetation at the entrance 0 = absent; 1 = sparse; 2 = dense 0 0–2 Height vegetation Average height of vegetation within 10 m of both entrances (m) 0 0–1.25 Stream width Stream width (m) 0 0–8 Distance to streams Distance to streams (m) Stream direction 0 = absent; 1 = parallel, 2 = perpendicular 0 0–2 Type of riparian vegetation 0 = absent, 1 = shrubs, 2 = gallery 0 0–2 Structure of riparian vegetation 0 = absent, 1 = open, 2 = closed 0 0–2 Highway—passage distance Distance from the passage entrance to highway edge (m) 7 1–21 Year of construction Year of construction of the highway (year) 1998 Distance to the nearest passage Distance to the nearest crossing structure (m) 100 1–580 Distance to the two nearest passages Average distance to the nearest crossing structure at both sides of the passage (m) 250 75–875 Number passages Number passages in within 1,000 m radius from the passage 6 2,000 0–2,000 Road-related 123 96 1995–2001 1–12 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 1691 Table 1 continued Variables Definition Mode Range values Traffic volume Mean 2004 average daily traffic volume (no vehicles/day) 9,404 3,000–18,000 Human use 0 = absent; 1 = irregular; 2 = regular Distance to roads Minimum distance to linear infra structures (other roads) (m) 349 Distance to cities Average distance to cities within 1,000 m radius (m) 250 0–4,031 Road density_hr Sum of road length within home range areaa (m) 2,514 2,247–8,591 Human disturbance a 0 0–2 109–519 300 ha for stone marten, genet and mongoose and 500 ha for fox and badger multiple regression analysis. We applied a stepwise selection procedure to retain significant variables and their interactions. Suitable transformations on the dependent and independent variables were conducted to reduce the effect of outliers (Chaterjee and Price 1991). In addition, we constructed a correlation matrix and excluded correlated variables to minimize multicollinearity. All statistical analyses were conducted using the Brodgar 2.5.1 (Zuur et al. 2007) and SPSS 14 v. (SPSS 2003) software programs. Results Which species used the crossings? Eight carnivore species used the crossing structures over 2,330 trap-days: red fox, weasel, polecat, stone marten, badger, otter, genet, and Egyptian mongoose. Although present in the study area (Pinto and Fernandes 2001; Fernandes 2004), no wildcats were recorded. A total of 1,940 carnivore tracks were recorded; 1,649 (85%) were complete passages. The average crossing rate was 0.7 complete passages per structure per day (Table 2). Egyptian mongoose (28%) and badger (27%) crossed most frequently, followed by fox (18%), stone marten (12%), genet (12%) and otter (2%). Weasels (n = 2) and polecats (n = 1) crossed least frequently. The average number of species detected at a crossing structure was 3.32 (SD = 1.17). Absence of wildcat records and the small number of weasel, polecat, and otter records precluded statistical analysis. We focused on complete crossings by the five species that used the passages the most (red fox, stone marten, badger, genet, and Egyptian mongoose). Did passage size make a difference? Even though there was a tendency to use the larger underpasses (Fig. 2), only stone marten showed a statistically significant preference (U = 40.5, 0.01 \ P \ 0.05). When use of paired culverts and underpasses was conducted, we found similar results: selection was random except for stone marten, which preferred underpasses (Z = -1.782, 0.01 \ P \ 0.05). 123 97 123 98 a 0.014 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 PP CP, complete passage; PP, partial passage 0.085 0.151 Summer CP CP PP Weasel Fox Spring Typea 0.001 0.001 CP Polecat 0.000 0.000 PP 0.053 0.117 CP 0.017 0.028 PP Stone marten Table 2 Movements through crossing structures expressed in number of tracks per day 0.162 0.212 CP Badger 0.015 0.025 PP 0.013 0.013 CP Otter 0.003 0.001 PP 0.065 0.104 CP Genet 0.006 0.021 PP 0.207 0.188 CP 0.043 0.060 PP Mongoose Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 1692 Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 1693 0.8 number of passages/day 0.7 underpasses circular culverts 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 fox stone marten badger genet mongoose Fig. 2 Mean crossing rates for the culverts and underpasses and standard deviation respectively (n = 26) Table 3 Deviance explained with their slope (± slope value) and level of significance and numbers (1–9) indicating variable importance rank for each species Variables Fox Stone marten Badger Genet +0.100** 5 +0.06* Mongoose Structural Width +0.09** 1 +0.22** 1 5 ns Height +0.08** 2 +0.18** 2 +0.080** 7 +0.04* 6 ns Openness +0.07** 3 +0.16** 4 0.060** 9 +0.06* 5 ns ns 6 -0.18** 1 -0.09* 2 ns +0.11** 4 Landscape Extensive agriculture_500 m 0.08** Oak woodland_500 m +0.08** 2 +0.17** % Shrub cover_500 m ns ns Intensive agriculture_hr ns -0.17* 3 3 +0.07** 4 +0.04* 5 ns ns +0.07** 4 ns ns ns Oak woodland_hr ns 0.12* 5 0.07* 8 ns Distance to forest cover ns -0.08** 7 -0.17** 2 -0.06* Height of vegetation +0.07** 3 ns ns ns ns 5 ns +0.14** 1 Stream direction ns ns +0.04* 10 ns +0.11** 2 Type of riparian vegetation ns ns +0.09** 6 ns +0.07** 4 Structure of riparian vegetation ns ns ns ns +0.07** 4 Road-related Distance to the nearest passage ns -0.09** 6 ns ns -0.08** 3 Highway—passage distance +0.08* 7 ns ns ns ns Human disturbance Traffic volume ns ns +0.06** 8 ns Human use ns ns -0.08** 7 -0.08* Distance to roads +0.07** 3 +0.06** +0.12** 3 +0.10** 1 ns 10 ns 8 Distance to cities ns ns +0.04* Road density_hr ns ns ns ns 3 ns ns -0.09* ns—not significant; * 0.05 [ P \ 0.10; ** 0.00 [ P \ 0.05 123 99 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 1694 Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 What environmental variables influenced passage use? Regression analyses showed that the frequency of use by carnivores varied with structural, landscape, road-related features, and human disturbance variables (Table 3); 19 of 32 (59%) attributes were significant. Structural attributes (width, height, and openness) had high explanatory power; with the exception of mongoose, carnivores were less likely to use smaller passages. Landscape attributes also influenced crossing rate. All carnivores tended to use passages within oak woodland areas. High vegetation height at crossing entrances was important for fox and mongoose; distance to forest cover was important for all carnivores. Mongoose crossings were correlated with stream direction, as well as the type and structure of riparian vegetation. Stone marten and mongoose passage use was negatively correlated with distance to the next nearest existing structure. Intensive agriculture and forest production, density of vegetation at the entrance, stream width, and distance to streams, as well as road related descriptors such as the number of passages in a 1,000 m buffer and year of highway construction, were not significantly related to crossing use. Five species-specific models were developed (Table 4). The proportion of variance (R2) explained by the models developed for each carnivore had values that ranged from 0.15 to 0.40, suggesting other unmeasured variables were responsible for crossing behavior. Some structural attributes, habitat features, road-related attributes, and human disturbance were Table 4 Variables retained in the stepwise regression model for each carnivore species, coefficients (B), standard error, significances, P-value (t test) and deviance explained (D) Species Foxa Variables B (Constant) Oak woodland_500 m Height vegetation Stone martena a Badger 0.037 0.000 0.146 0.01 0.004 0.010 0.09 0.030 0.501 0.000 Width (1) 0.09 0.430 0.040 Width (2) 1.2 0.380 0.002 Oak woodland_500 m 0.01 0.005 0.010 -2.61 0.640 0.001 Oak woodland_500 m 0.01 0.003 0.010 Distance to roads 0.00 0.001 0.003 (Constant) -0.31 0.120 0.010 0.78 0.260 0.005 0.16 0.300 0.590 -3.11 0.770 0.000 Distance to roads 0.01 0.001 0.010 Oak woodland_500 m 0.00 0.004 0.010 Human use (1) -0.69 0.330 0.040 Human use (2) -0.83 0.450 0.070 (Constant) -1.20 0.230 0.000 % Shrub cover_500 m 0.01 0.003 0.008 Stream direction (1) 0.26 0.320 0.410 Stream direction (2) 0.90 0.290 0.003 (Constant) The data used for these species were square root transformed 123 100 -2.03 0.04 Type of riparian vegetation (2) a D -3.04 Cover distance Mongoosea P-value (Constant) Type of riparian vegetation (1) Geneta Std Error 0.311 0.395 0.245 0.195 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 1695 important model components for carnivores, although their influence varied by species. Except for mongoose, the presence of oak woodland forest was the most important variable in the models. Distance to other roads was positively related to badger and genet crossing rates, whereas human use was negatively correlated with genet crossings. Passage width was a predictor of stone marten crossings. Vegetation height and % shrub cover helped to explain fox and mongoose crossing rates, respectively. Discussion The most common habitat-generalists (fox, stone marten, badger, genet and mongoose) used large and small passages regularly, but specific attributes influenced species differently in determining the effectiveness of a passage. Our findings suggest that structure size is important especially for the arboreal stone marten which preferred larger passages. In general, crossing rates were two times higher in passages 1.5 m wide or larger. These results differ from those reported by Rodriguez et al. (1997) who did not find any preference or avoidance by fox or wildcat; however, their passages ranged from 1.2 to 3.5 m while our passages ranged from 1 to 8 m, suggesting a threshold response. In general, larger passages with vegetation close to the passage entrances, favorable habitat in the surroundings, and low disturbance by humans were important key attributes. The presence of vegetation [0.5 m high at the passages entrances was associated with higher fox, stone marten, and mongoose crossing rates. When the proportion of oak woodland forest cover was [75%, we found higher values of crossing rates for all carnivores. Both features contributed to masking passage structure and provide greater protection and security for animals. Human disturbances in the vicinity of passages limited their use (Clevenger and Waltho 2000; Ng et al. 2004; Ascensão and Mira 2007). We observed a significant increase in fox, stone marten, badger, and genet crossing rates when distance to other roads was 500 m or greater. Where we found absence of human activity, the crossing rates doubled for badger and genet. When the distance to urban centers was greater than 2,000 m, badger crossing rates increased significantly. We documented that when stream flow passed through a passage, mongoose crossing rates were two times higher than when the stream paralleled the crossing. Streams with riparian vegetation provide travel corridors providing shelter and food, and anti-predator cover (Simberloff and Cox 1987; Hobbs 1992; Palomares and Delibes 1993; Virgós 2001), and influence the moving pattern of the mongoose, a largely diurnal species that avoids open areas (Palomares and Delibes 1991). Both culverts and underpasses play an important role in maintaining landscape connectivity for carnivores in general, but the existing structures appear to be selectively permeable. Species-specific habitat preferences contribute to the observed differences in permeability and may act cumulatively. Otters, polecats and wildcats are habitat specialists. Otters are water-obligate (Beja 1992), and because we specifically chose the driest season to avoid water in the passages, their lower frequency of crossing does not reflect their high abundance in Portugal (Trindade et al. 1998; Cabral et al. 2005). Polecats, although not strictly water dependent, show a high association with aquatic environments (Lode 1994; Zabala et al. 2005) for the higher availability and diversity of prey (e.g., amphibians and crayfish). For wildcats, as forest-dependent and highly persecuted species (Fernandes 2004), the need for undisturbed old growth forest patches may not apply to the road-related environments, at least at the scale of analysis of this study. Weasels, on the contrary, do not show strict habitat preference (King 1975; Santos-Reis 1989; Blanco 123 101 Road effects on Mediterranean carnivores 1696 Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:1685–1699 1998; Klemola et al. 1999) but are rodent-specialists and this largely influences their demography with populations showing strong fluctuations that in some cases may lead to almost local extinctions (Santos-Reis 1989). The 2 year drought preceding and during the study was the driest period during the last 75 years and influenced plant productivity and rodent numbers, and weasel populations were very low. Regardless, weasels avoid open areas and use linear corridors such as stone walls or vegetation strips (King 1975); structures not normally present in the passages. The variability found on passages use frequency was also related to differences in population densities. The occurrence of a particular species in the vicinity of a passage and fluctuations in its local abundance and activity patterns may explain the large amount of crossing rate variance (Yanes et al. 1995; Rodriguez et al. 1996; Clevenger et al. 2001; Hlaváč and Andĕl 2002). Rodriguez et al. (1997) found that for foxes and wildcats the variance explained by passage attributes was much lower (0.06–0.16) than that explained by patterns of the species abundance (0.23–0.53). Undoubtedly, shelter and food resources exert an important role. We found an increase in crossing rates in oak woodland where relative abundances were higher. Overall, our results indicate that culverts and underpasses facilitate the crossing of highways by carnivores. These structures appear to be important for landscape connectivity. To increase the likelihood of passage use by the carnivores guild we suggest some guidelines for highway managers: (1) promote the construction of large passages; (2) prioritize mitigative measures in areas with ecological significance for carnivores, e.g., forested areas of natural woods and where streams associated with riparian vegetation run through or close to the passages; (3) plant vegetation at passage entrances to guide animals towards the existing structure; (4) restrict human use of passages and (5) maintenance of natural vegetation structure inside the passage (soil, logs, rocks, woody debris) will help encourage use by more sensitive species (weasel and polecat) to artificial structures. An integrated approach using combined mitigation measures should reduce the impact of roads. Additional work on other methodologies that account for seasonal and yearly variations as well as effective monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of these measures will be beneficial. Further information is needed to clarify the relationship between species density and crossing rates. Less common species are important components of the ecosystem and their inclusion will be important. Consideration of adequate gene flow and connected populations will enable decisions regarding the effectiveness of passages and the restoration and maintenance of basic ecological processes and functions. Acknowledgments C. Grilo was supported by a Ph.D. grant (SFRH/BD/10600/2002) from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia. Additional funding was provided by Brisa Auto-Estradas de Portugal S.A. We also would like to thank Joana Roque de Pinho and Fernando Ascensão for valuable comments on the earlier drafts of the manuscript and Eric Gese and Henrique Cabral for the final critical comments on the manuscript. We also thank one anonymous reviewer for their helpful comments on this manuscript. 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Bissonette, Margarida Santos-Reis This paper was submitted to the journal Landscape and Urban Planning on February 23, 2009 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal Structural connectivity in a Mediterranean landscape and its consequences for road mortality risk of stone marten Clara Grilo1, Fernando Ascensão1 John A. Bissonette2 Margarida Santos-Reis1 1Universidade de Lisboa, Centro de Biologia Ambiental/Departamento de Biologia Animal, Faculdade de Ciências, C2 5º 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal (E-mail address: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]) 2U. S. Geological Survey Utah Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Wildland Resources, College of Natural Resources, Utah State University, USA, 84322-5290 (E-mail address: [email protected]) Abstract Mediterranean basin landscapes have been shaped historically by human-nature interactions that have lead to the emergence of the unique “montado” ecosystem now recognized with a high conservation value. Recently, “montado” has experienced significant large-scale changes, including agriculture intensification and road network expansion. Some wide-ranging and forest-dwelling carnivores have already shown a particular vulnerability to these developments. For example, although stone marten Martes foina ecology is reasonably well known, its response to the loss of spatial connectivity of populations is poorly understood. In this paper, we measured the structural connectivity of the landscape in southern Portugal and examined how it may influence road mortality risk. We addressed three questions: 1) how do different levels of landscape connectivity influence stone marten occupancy of “montado” areas? 2) is there any relation between “montado” connectivity and road mortality risk? 3) if so, which road-related features might be responsible for high road mortality? We developed a series of 12 connectivity models using cost surface scenarios on the basis of differential weights given to each vegetation cover type to reflect different resistance to species movement. Our findings show that stone marten occupancy likelihood decreases with distance to source areas (with an increased cost in open areas and distance to riparian areas) and is positively affected by patch size. The high road-kill incidence was detected when roads traversed well connected areas. Road sinuosity was the most important factor influencing the mortality incidence in those areas. Recommendations are provided to restore “montado” structural connectivity and decrease road mortality. Keywords – habitat fragmentation, “montado”, carnivores, road-kill, hierarchical partitioning, cost surface scenarios. 111 111 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal 1. Introduction Landscapes within the Mediterranean basin have been historically shaped by human-nature interactions. This has lead into the emergence of the cork and holm oak woodlands (hereafter “montado”) ecosystem (Blondel, 2006), an agro-silvo-pastoral system characterised by a mosaic of crops, grasslands, scrublands, and forest patches, with variable densities of cork (Quercus suber) and/or holm (Q. ilex) oaks, associated with animal grazing and cultivation (Pinto Correia, 1993). These complex and dynamic “montado” landscapes evolved together with numerous species being considered to hold high levels of biodiversity (Plieninger and Wilbrand, 2001). In spite of coevolutionary processes that allowed species to adapt to small-scale habitat change over time (Blondel, 2006), Mediterranean landscapes in the Iberian Peninsula, and particularly in southern Portugal, have experienced significant large-scale changes over the past century, including agriculture intensification and significant road network expansion. Free-range grazing at high stocking levels also has extensively cleared scrubland dominated areas. Today, large areas of the region are dominated by a cropland matrix where woodlands patches with low understory cover are mixed with non-native plantations of conifer (Pinus sp.) and eucalyptus (Eucalyptus sp.) species (Plieninger, 2006). In addition, there has been significant road network expansion since the integration of Portugal into the European Union; two new highways were built in this region, adding ca. 500km to the existing road network, and several other roads were improved. As the road network extends across the landscape and traffic volumes intensify, well connected areas become increasingly fragmented. Because high traffic volume roads are a source of animal mortality and can disrupt animal movements (Forman et al., 2003), they represent a serious threat to long-term wildlife population stability and viability (e.g., Dixon et al., 2006). Despite the cumulative effects of habitat fragmentation and road mortality on biodiversity conservation, these are often evaluated separately. Landscape connectivity assessments generally take into account only the amount of habitat, and generally exclude human-made features (e.g., Mortelliti and Boitani, 2008). Similarly, the effects of roads are generally evaluated using mortality risk or road permeability, lacking the 112 112 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal landscape perspective (e.g., Ramp et al. 2005). We argue that wildlife conservation must account for the effects of both factors in order to capture the responses of organisms to different levels of landscape connectivity and to provide guidelines to minimize the negative effects of fragmentation and road mortality. Recent research has shown that some endangered mammalian carnivores are particularly vulnerable to habitat fragmentation and road network expansion (Sunquist and Sunquist, 2001; Crooks, 2002; McRae et al. 2005) and are facing threats of extinction in some regions (e.g., Ferreras, 2001; Naves et al. 2003). Surprisingly, little is known about the vulnerability of the more widespread and common species to habitat fragmentation. One example is the stone marten Martes foina, recently documented to be particularly sensitive to forest fragmentation and vulnerable to roads (e.g., Mortelitti and Boitani, 2008; Grilo et al. 2009). Several studies have show them to be highly dependent on the presence of contiguous forested areas; e.g., cork woodlands (Virgós and Garcia, 2002; Santos-Reis et al. 2004; Mortelliti and Boitani, 2008), and avoids open areas and arable lands (Rondinini and Boitani, 2002). Previous research in southern Portugal also revealed that stone marten is highly vulnerable to traffic, being the second most killed carnivore species in the region, with casualties occurring mainly when the species are feeding young (Grilo et al., 2009), compromising therefore the breeding success. We evaluate the “montado” structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal and examined how it influences road mortality risk by addressing three questions: 1) how does landscape permeability influence the occupancy by stone marten of “montado” landscapes? 2) is there any relation between landscape connectivity and stone marten road mortality? and 3) if so, which road-related features are responsible for high road mortality in connected areas? Because little is known about how land use patterns influence movements by stone marten, we developed a series of 12 connectivity models using cost surface scenarios on the basis of differential weights assigned to each vegetation cover type (e.g., Ray et al., 2002) to reflect different resistance to stone marten movement. Then, we examined how changing the cost surface values of land use affected the fit of models relating to stone marten “montado” occupancy. We used the best scenario to evaluate what role connected areas played in the mortality of stone marten. 113 113 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal 2. Material and methods 2.1 Study area The study area comprises 7680 km2 in the Alentejo province of southern Portugal (Figure 1). This region is characterized by its vast plains, with elevations ranging from 200 m to 500 m a.s.l. The climate is Mediterranean, with mild winters and hot and dry summers. Mean annual temperature is 15.6 °C and mean annual precipitation is 500 mm. Figure 1 – Study area in southern Portugal with the location of the sampling units to assess stone marten patch occupancy. The landscape is dominated by a cropland matrix (44% of the study area), “montado” lands (39%), an agro-silvo-pastoral mix that includes both cork and holm oaks, followed by conifer and eucalyptus plantations (8%) and orchard patches/olive yards (7%). The study area´s mean human population (excluding the two major cities, Évora and Beja, with 1980 inhabitants.km-2) is 21 inhabitants.km-2 (source: INE 2002). Mean road density is 0.27 km.km-2, including 8% of highways (ca. 160km), with traffic volumes ranging between 6 000 and 13 000 vehicles per day. 114 114 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal 2.2 Land use map Prior to field work we created a land use map using a geographic information system. We used the COS’90 land cover (a vectorial information produced by photo interpretation of 1990s aerial photographs; source: IGP) and a georeferenced 1998 SPOT imagery with a spatial resolution of 20m (source: IgeoE). Many of the original 630 land cover classifications were represented by such a small fraction of total area that we could ignore their presence. We aggregated the data into four classifications. These included: “montado” (MNT), open areas (pastures, meadows and agriculture areas) (OPEN), riparian areas (RIP), and other (OTHER). 2.3 Stone marten survey From May to September 2005, we surveyed 44 sampling units (SU) in 25 different sized “montado” patches (ranging from 55 to 526 ha), and in 19 sites in contiguous “montado” areas (11 668-60 175 ha) (Figure 1). Sampling units were located at least four kilometers apart to prevent sampling repeated individuals (mean distance = 6 838 ± 2 249 m). In each SU we placed 7 to 17 scent-stations based on area. A scentstation was composed of one square plate (1 m x 1 m) covered with marble dust to detect tracks and were placed in a 300m interval grid and baited with chicken parts and lure (Cavens GUSTO Lure) (e.g., Sargeant et al., 2003). Scent-stations were checked for stone marten signs every second day for six consecutive days. For each SU, results were coded as either present (if detected at least once), or absent. Stone marten road-kills were obtained from August 2003 to December 2007 in two types of roads: national roads and highways (Figure 1). National roads consist of one-lane in each direction with an annual average daily traffic ranging from 500 to 2161 vehicles/night and a speed limit of 90/100 km.h-1. Highways consist of a total of fourlanes with a 7 m wide median strip, an average of 330 to 2494 vehicles/night, and with a speed limit of 120 km.h-1. We conducted road-kill surveys at low speed (ca. 50 km.h-1) along six segments of national roads (302 km, Figure 1), in a fortnightly basis (106 surveys) and casualty locations were recorded using a handheld GPS (maximum error 5m). Road-kill data from highways (166 km, Figure 1) was obtained from the BRISA 115 115 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal (highway private concession) database being surveys performed by the BRISA staff on a daily basis. Locations were recorded using nearest hectometre mark (maximum error 50 m). 2.4 Data analysis 2.4.1 Landscape connectivity models A series of landscape connectivity models (LCM) was developed using cost surface scenarios with different resistance weights to represent different movement costs (e.g.; Ray et al., 2002; Adriaensen et al., 2003; Gonzales and Gergel, 2007). The LCM were created on the basis of two assumptions: 1) over time the occupancy of smaller and more isolated “montado” patches is to great extent influenced by the effective distance to “montado” source areas, and 2) effective distances are dependent on different land use patterns with different connectivity values for stone marten, given their characteristic movement abilities. We assumed that different vegetation cover types influenced stone marten movements and we considered stone marten source areas as those sampling units with an occupancy probability higher than 90%. In this context, we measured distance to source areas using several scenarios in order to obtain the best scores that fit with stone marten occupancy data. These scenarios were built by creating cost weight grids and changing the relative weights of each vegetation cover. The selection of the stone marten source areas was supported by comparing the probability of detection between “montado” contiguous areas vs. patches, following the MacKenzie et al. (2002) procedure. Analyses were conducted using Presence software (Hines, 2006) available at http://www.mbr- pwrc.usgs.gov/software/doc/presence/presence.html. Cost weight grids were obtained by two sets of scenarios (Table 1). For the first one we took into account different movement resistance scores related to MNT, OPEN, riparian areas within “montado” (RIP_MNT), and riparian areas within open areas (RIP_OPEN). Eight cost distance grids were derived: A – equal resistance for all vegetation cover types (Euclidian distance); B, C and D – increasing resistance for OPEN, no effect of riparian areas presence; E, F, G and H – lower resistance of riparian areas (lower value of RIP_MNT and RIP_OPEN), varying the resistance of MNT and 116 116 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal OPEN. A second set of four scenarios (I, J, K and L) resulted from the addition of cost weight grids derived from scenarios A to D with the grid containing the distance to riparian areas (Dist_Rip_Areas). Table 1 – Scenarios with values of relative connectivity for land uses: “montado” (MNT), open areas (OPEN), riparian areas within “montado” (RIP MNT) and riparian areas within open areas (RIP OPEN) (A to H), and sum of A to D scenarios with distance to riparian areas (Dist_Rip_Areas) (I to L). Scenario MNT OPEN A 1 1 RIP MNT 1 B 1 2 1 2 C 1 5 1 5 D 1 10 1 10 E 2 5 1 1 F 1 5 1 1 G 2 10 1 1 H 1 10 1 1 I RIP OPEN 1 Scenario A + Dist_Rip_Areas J Scenario B + Dist_Rip_Areas K Scenario C + Dist_Rip_Areas L Scenario D + Dist_Rip_Areas This enabled us to evaluate the influence of riparian area proximity while varying the connectivity of the vegetation cover. Mean cost weight values of all scenarios were then assigned for each patch. All grids were built using a cell size of 200m. For each patch the total area (Area) was also measured. The cost distance analysis was performed with tools from the Spatial Analyst and Patch Analyst extensions (http://flash.lakeheadu.ca/~rrempel/patch/) of ArcView 3.2 (ESRI, 1999). We applied GLM logistic regression for patch data to identify which connectivity model best fitted the likelihood of stone marten occupancy. All variables were log transformed to achieve normality assumptions (Quinn and Keough, 2002). Models were built using all possible combinations of non-correlated variables (r < 0.70). Basically they were built by using patch area or scenarios alone, or by including one distance measure at a time along with Area. For each model, the Nagelkerke R2, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were calculated for the assessment and comparison of the effectiveness of the models to predict stone marten patch occupancy. Models were ranked according to AIC scores and ∆AIC was determined. We considered that a value of ∆AIC higher than 7 indicated that a model 117 117 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal had a poor fit relative to the best model, whereas a value less than 3 indicated that a model was equivalent (i.e., equally informative) to the minimum AIC model (Burnham and Anderson, 2002). To test the accuracy of the best model, we applied the K-fold cross-validation prediction error for generalized linear models (Manly et al., 2002). This function calculates the mean sum square of the differences between the observations and the predicted value by using R package boot. 2.4.2 Road kills analyses We used the Linear Nearest Neighbor Analysis (Levine, 2004) to evaluate whether stone marten casualties were clustered or dispersed along road surveyed segments. The linear nearest neighbor index (NNI) is a ratio between the average distance of the nearest neighbor and the expected random distance. If the observed mean distance is the same as the mean random distance, then the ratio will be 1.0. If the observed distance is smaller then the random, the NNI is less than 1.0 (clustered). The locations are dispersed when NNI is larger than 1.0. Road-kill hotspots were defined according to the Malo et al. (2004) procedure. We compared the observed number of collisions for each 1000m of road segment; i.e., the mean diameter of the stone marten home range (Santos-Reis et al., 2004), with the number of collisions expected in a random situation. If random, the likelihood of collisions would show a Poisson distribution and we can identify a hotspot by the minimum number of collisions in a road segment that is extremely unlikely (<5%) to occur. By using nearest neighbor hierarchical clustering (Levine, 2004), we identified the spatial location of these hotspots along the studied roads. We placed buffers with a 1000m radius around each hotspot centroid. We selected the same number of buffers in road segments with no road kills (non-hotspots) with the Hawth’s Analysis Tools extension ArcGis 9.2 (ESRI, 2006) and compared the means of cost distance surfaces between hotspots and non hotspots with a Mann-Whitney test (Dytham, 2003). If we found significant differences between hotspots and non-hotspots, we identified other features related to mortality risk. In this way, we were able to predict the locations of other road sections that are in need of mitigation measures. The presence or absence of hotspots and five predictor roadrelated variables were then assessed using GLM logistic regression (Table 2). 118 118 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal Table 2 – Road related variables used in road-kill hotspots analyses. Variables Definition Type Range Nominal 1;2 Road type 1 - national road 2 - highway Permeability_n Number of passages Scale 0-9 Permeability_wt Sum of passages width (overpasses, underpasses, culverts, viaducts) Scale 0-142 Sinuosity_c Number of curves Scale 0-7 Sinuosity_index total length of the road / distance between the start and finish locations Scale 1.00-1.12 Fences Presence/absence of fences Nominal 0;1 Traffic Daily traffic volume at night in 2005 (number of vehicles/night) Scale 351-2494 Variance partitioning procedures (e.g., Chevan and Sutherland, 1991, Mac Nally, 2000) were used to assess the independent and joint effect of each road related variable on hotspots buffers. This protocol employs goodness-of-fit measures for all 2N possible models for N predictors instead of identifying a single best model (Mac Nally, 2002). Variances are partitioned so that the total independent (I’s) and joint (J’s) contributions of explanatory variables can be estimated (Mac Nally, 2000). This procedure allowed the identification of those variables that are likely to have the greatest influence in explaining the locality of mortality hotspots. We used ‘log likelihood’ as a goodness-of-fit measure. To assess the statistical significance of variables, the data matrix was subjected to 1000 randomizations to compute I’s distributions for each predictor. Following Mac Nally (2002), if the observed value of Iobs for each variable was extreme (>95 percentile) relative to the generated distribution, then we retained the variable as potentially important for explaining hotspots occurrence. Results are expressed as Z-scores, and the statistical significance based on the upper 95% confidence limit (Z>1.65) (Mac Nally, 2002). All statistical analyses were carried out using the program R (http://www.r-project.org). 3. Results 3.1 Landscape connectivity models Stone marten presence was detected in 13 “montado” patches (52%) and in 18 contiguous areas (95%). The similarity for observed (N) and estimated presence 119 119 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal probabilities (Psi) (N - 0.52 and Psi - 0.56 for patches and N – 0.95 and Psi – 0.95 for contiguous areas) demonstrated that our sampling method detected stone marten presence quite well. The probability of presence of stone marten in contiguous areas was higher than 90%, while for the patches it decreased to 56%. This supported our assumption that contiguous areas can be regarded as source areas. Eight connectivity models fitted quite well to the data (Table 3) with similar AIC values, suggesting that they are equivalent. Overall results show that stone marten patch occupancy was positively influenced by smaller distances to source areas, with both open areas and riparian areas within those areas having a lower connectivity for movements. Moreover, the non-Euclidian (fractal) distance with differential resistance scores performed better in describing patch occupancy than did Euclidian distance. The best landscape connectivity model found that the stone marten occupancy was related to scenario L (β= -3.272; SE= 1.810) and Area (β= 3.927; SE= 2.331) (Table 3), suggesting that the probability of occupancy decreases as the cost to source areas increases in open areas, far from riparian areas and in smaller patches. Table 3 – Summary of parameters estimated for the landscape connectivity models. R2: Nagelkerke R-square; AUC: Area Under the ROC Curve; AICc: Aikaike Information Criteria adjusted for small sample size; ∆AICc: difference between AICc of each model and the minimum AIC found for all the models compared; w is the probability that each model is the true model. Only null model and 3 <∆AICc<7 models are presented. R2 AUC AICc ∆AICc w Scenario L + Area 0.338 0.840 28.440 6.351 0.161 Scenario D + Area 0.317 0.833 28.972 5.820 0.124 Scenario K + Area 0.315 0.821 29.038 5.753 0.120 Scenario C + Area 0.290 0.801 29.635 5.156 0.089 Scenario J+ Area 0.260 0.763 30.344 4.448 0.062 Scenario B + Area 0.239 0.750 30.821 3.970 0.049 Scenario I + Area 0.228 0.744 31.067 3.724 0.043 Scenario L 0.189 0.7633 31.344 3.447 0.038 - - 34.791 - - Model Null The model had a correct classification of presences and absences of 77% and 75%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.84 and appeared to be a good predictor of stone marten patch occupancy. Nagelkerke R2 was 0.34 which suggests that a large part of patch occupancy is explained by landscape connectivity. The prediction error estimated by cross-validation was 0.24 which means that the model fit 120 120 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal well to the data. When extrapolating the model to entire study area, 92% of “montado” is likely (≥75% probability) to be occupied by stone marten being the southeastern the least occupied area (Figure 2). Figure 2 – Stone marten occupancy likelihood (low < 75% (light gray); high > 75% (medium gray), source areas (dark gray) and road-kill hotspots locations (+). Dark lines are the surveyed roads. 3.2 Road kill analyses We documented 182 stone marten fatalities on 468 km of national roads and highways in Alentejo. Although not significant, the nearest neighbor index revealed that stone marten casualties were clustered (NNI=0.94). According to Malo et al. (2004) procedure we defined as hotspots the road sections of 1000m length that had at least four road kills over the study period. We identified 15 road kill hotspots (Figure 2) and randomly selected another 15 sites with non-road kills. We placed buffers with a 1000m radius around each and found significant differences between road kill hotspots and non-road kill segments for stone marten occupancy likelihood (Mann-Whitney test: U= 44.5. n0= 15. n1= 15; p < 0.05). On average, we found a 53% likelihood of stone marten occupancy for road-kill clusters and 23% for non-road kill segments (Figure 3). 121 121 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal Figure 3 – Box plots for the hotspots and non-hotspots locations in relation to the likelihood of stone marten occupancy. We then used the hotspot analysis and selected other buffer areas without stone marten road kills but in road stretches with a high likelihood of stone presence to identify which road features may influence road mortality incidence. Variance partitioning analyses suggest that road sinuosity was the most important factor influencing the hotspot occurrences and it is the important one for management purposes (Figure 4). Figure 4 - Hierarchical partitioning of the proportions of explained variance of road related variables influence on roadkill hotspots. Black bars show the variance exclusively explained by the particular variable (I’s), open bars show the variance explained jointly by the respective 122 122 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal variable and others. Star indicates significant result (being outside the 0.95 confidence range) after 1000 randomizations. Road kill data also supported the LCM model results: 87% (n=158) were within “montado” areas or at up to 500 m distance, 10% (n=18) up to 1000m and only 3% (n=6) ranged from 1000 m to 3220 m. 4. Discussion Our study emphasized the value of distance from contiguous forested areas on stone marten patch occupancy and the importance of roads as a disruptive factor in the directionality of their movement. Moreover, the inclusion of the matrix characteristics and the non-Euclidian distance in the models may strongly improve the understanding of the structural connectivity of the habitat for the species, as also reported in a growing number of studies (e.g. Hunter et al. 2003; Larue and Nielsen, 2008). The clear species response to distance to source areas and landscape permeability provided good insights and supported the hypothesis that patch occupancy is species-specific and influenced by the nature of the matrix, as documented elsewhere (e.g. With et al., 1997; Tischendorf and Fahrig, 2000; D’Eon et al., 2002). Additionally, mobility is highly related with the species capability for moving across landscape features with different competition and predation exposure, energy costs, and availability of food and shelter to individuals (e.g. Johnson and Gaines, 1985), and will affect access to and occupancy of patches. In this study, stone martens were more likely to occur in contiguous “montado” areas and the observed patch occupancy pattern suggests that open areas may act as a filter to movement. Although the avoidance effect of the open areas is well documented (Rondinini and Boitani, 2002; Virgós and García, 2002; Goszczyński et al., 2007; Mortelliti and Boitani, 2008), little is known about the average distance across open areas that this species will cross. Unsurprisingly, the best landscape connectivity model had the highest resistance scores for open areas, and road kill data suggested that crossings may be limited to distances shorter than 5000 m (Virgós and Garcia, 2002). These data suggest that species vulnerability to fragmentation may depend also 123 123 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal on landscape type and its associated regional context, an often unappreciated relationship. Additionally, riparian areas appear to be of little importance as potential corridors in promoting connectivity among the “montado” patches. This is in contrast to what has been recently reported, especially for carnivores in fragmented Mediterranean ecosystems (e.g. Virgós, 2001; Rondinini and Boitani 2002; Matos et al., 2008). In fact, the riparian areas found in our study area are in poor condition, with only a few meters width of shrubs (Matos et al., 2008), which may hamper carnivore mobility. Nevertheless, the distance to streams combined with the proximity to contiguous forested areas was an important parameter accounting for the variation in patch occupancy. This finding suggests that riparian areas in the proximity of “montado” patches might favor carnivore presence by providing additional resources. Rondinini et al. (2002) emphasized the wide variety of fruits and plants, as well the high density of rodents in the riparian areas which are important items in stone marten’s diet (Genovesi et al., 1996), particularly in the dry season when their availability apparently exceeds the surrounding matrix, even if the matrix is “montado” (Matos et al. 2008). Large patch areas were also highly correlated with stone marten occupancy, which has been widely reported as one of the most important features influencing species occupancy (e.g. Michalski and Peres, 2005), particularly with carnivores (e.g., Crooks, 2002; Virgós et al., 2002). Although stone martens are considered to be more habitat generalist than other conspecifics, e.g., American marten Martes americana (e.g., Hargis et al., 1999) or pine marten Martes martes (e.g., Goszczyński et al., 2007), food availability (e.g., Genovesi et al., 1996) and adequate shelter and anti-predator cover appear to strongly influence habitat occupancy (Mortelliti and Boitani, 2008). The detection of stone marten presence in smaller patches stressed that individuals were able to move across the study area and use several smaller patches to supplement resources (Dunning et al., 1992; Rödel and Stubbe, 2006). This behavior was also reported by Palomares and Delibes (1994) with genets (Genetta genetta) in a sub-optimal fragmented habitat in Northern Doñana National Park where radio-tracked individuals used the same patch for several days and then changed patches to access resources. 124 124 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal Although some studies suggest that inter-patch movements may increase with habitat fragmentation and therefore may also increase road mortality risk (Ferreras, 2001; Adriaensen et al., 2003), we did not find a higher frequency of road casualties in more fragmented areas. Conversely, the incidence of road-kills was significantly higher in road segments traversing contiguous habitat supporting the idea that well connected landscapes promote stone martens movement and extended networks of roads in those areas may represent a serious threat to long-term population stability and viability (Dixon et al., 2006). Given our results, particular attention should be paid to road segments with higher sinuosity. In highly sinuous road sections, both vehicle drivers and animals have little time to be aware of each other’s proximity, resulting in a shorter response time to avoid collision. Similar results were also obtained for genet and Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) in a previous study (Grilo et al., 2009), which emphasized the role of road sinuosity in the incidence of mortality, particularly for carnivores. The results presented here provide a regional image of the habitat connectivity in Alentejo for stone marten and show that the low degree of landscape connectivity in southeastern part of the study area may be critical to the persistence of the species in this region. Riparian restoration efforts may increase the potential use as habitat or movement corridor for this species and therefore, would enhance the landscape connectivity of the region. In connected areas, cutting or removal of the vegetation along road verges of highly sinuous road sections may reduce suitability for the species, both in terms of cover and prey (e.g., Bellamy et al. 2000; Dean and Milton, 2003), that might prevent accidents by improving the visibility. In this study, we argued that stone marten forest patch occupancy is a function of the connectivity in Mediterranean farmland landscapes. Although the high detectability in the source areas gives us some support in the reliability of the results, data reported here may underestimated patch use because surveys were restricted to dry season in a short period of time. The challenge remains to explore which processes underlie the complex relationship between mobility, “montado” spatial patterns and riparian areas, and examine at what distance threshold affects the long term population viability. We believe that the large-scale perspective we present here can 125 125 Modelling structural connectivity for stone marten in southern Portugal prove useful in guiding local conservation efforts, but future refinements are needed to examine site-specific issues at a scale appropriate for site planning (see Jepsen et al., 2005; Chetkiewicz et al., 2006). For example, movement patterns of adults and dispersers with radio–tracking or non-invasive methods may provide good insights to assess the relative resistance of different vegetation cover types and assess the viability of population at long-term (e.g. Hunter et al., 2003; Broquet et al., 2006; Walker et al., 2007). 5. References Adriaensen, F., Chardon, J.P., De Blust, G., Swinnen, E., Villalba, S., Gulinck, H., Matthysen, E., 2003. The application of 'least-cost' modelling as a functional landscape model. Landscape Urban Plan. 64, 233-247. Bellamy, P.E., Shore, R.F., Ardeshir, D., Treweek, J.R., Sparks, T.H., 2000. 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With a multiple species and a multi-scale approach, this study addressed habitat connectivity for carnivores in Mediterranean landscapes taking into account “montado” fragmentation and road network expansion. Study results suggest that common and wide-ranging carnivores could become threatened in the future if landscape changes persist and no measures are taken to minimize their effects. 6.1 OVERVIEW OF MAIN FINDINGS 6.1.1 ARE COMMON AND WIDE-RANGING “MONTADO” FRAGMENTATION? CARNIVORES VULNERABLE TO Not all common and wide-ranging meso-carnivore species responded equally to “montado” fragmentation and the association between occupancy patterns and the “montado” attributes were scale-dependent. Stone marten and Egyptian mongoose occupancy patterns were significantly affected by “montado” fragmentation and according to multi-scale analyses (paper I), stone marten appear to be the most sensitive species to changes in “montado” attributes. We observed a high preference for older-growth forests where stone marten can find arboreal cavities for rest and den sites. This result has also been reported by Rondinini and Boitani (2002) and SantosReis et al. (2004). The vulnerability of stone marten to fragmentation has been previously found but with a different sampling schemes in what concerns the size range of investigated patches. For example, Virgós and Garcia (2002) surveyed a range of patches from <1 to >100 ha and observed that the stone marten showed low inclination to use small (<50 ha) and isolated patches. This study considered “montado” forest areas ranging from 55 to 60175 ha, and showed that stone marten responded negatively when the montado become patchy independently from the patch size, suggesting that their sensitivity may be higher than reported by the previous study. We found high explanatory power for 133 133 General Discussion the joint effect of “montado” isolation and area at patch and landscape extents, respectively. The joint effect was higher than the independent effect of those variables at the patch scale extent as reported by Virgós and Garcia (2002). Similar results were obtained by Mortelitti and Boitani (2007) but their analysis was made only at patch extent. The importance of distance to large patches and the detection of stone marten in very small patches supported the argument of Virgós and Garcia (2002) that continuous areas, by providing healthy populations, may act as source of individuals for small patches located in the surrounding areas. Another analysis using cost surface scenarios (paper IV) as the basis for the differential weights assigned to each vegetation cover type show clearly that matrix permeability is also important for stone marten well being in Mediterranean habitats. Although distance to contiguous “montado” areas decrease the likelihood of stone marten occupancy, the highest resistance scores for open areas indicated that this matrix may act as a filter to movement given certain distances between forested areas. Unsurprisingly, scent stations (paper I) and road kill data (paper IV) show that isolation values (distance between forested areas) higher than 1000/1500 m may decrease the likelihood of stone marten presence in the region. Nevertheless, Virgós and Garcia (2002) observed that stone marten were scarce only when fragments were farther than 5000 m from continuous forest areas, suggesting that species response to fragmentation also depends on landscape type and its associated regional context. In contrast, Egyptian mongoose seemed to have a lower connectivity threshold than stone marten. They were highly sensitive to understorey and “montado” density, which had a large effect on the local occupancy model. The combined effects of local habitat quality (montado and understorey density), patch size, and proportion of lowquality habitat in the surrounding matrix accounted for the highest variation in mongoose occupancy. Mongoose is diurnal and a species persecuted by humans (Palomares and Delibes 1993) being therefore understandable their needs in terms of cover. The detection of stone marten and Egyptian mongoose in very small patches relatively far from large ones indicated that they may use several small patches and moved between them to supplement food resources (see Dunning et al. 1992). Another explanation for this finding, was documented by Mortelliti and Boitani (2008) that even 134 134 General Discussion in smaller and relatively isolated patches, carnivores may occupy those areas if there is food availability. Hence, within a certain cost/benefit trade-off, by improving resource availability, it is possible to decrease the negative effect of smaller and isolated patches and hence the negative impact of fragmentation on carnivores survival. 6.1.2 DO ROADS HAVE IMPACT ON THE SMALL- AND MEDIUM-SIZED CARNIVORES? Based on our results, roads may act as filters to movement and appear to be selectively permeable (papers II and III). Road mortality results indicated on average 47 ind./100 km/year were killed on the road, with red fox suffering the highest mortality (42%), followed by stone marten (17%), Egyptian mongoose (12%), and both Eurasian badger and genet (11%) (paper II). Otters, Western polecats and weasels were less frequently killed, the first due to their dependence of water lines (Blanco 1998) and the later due to their probable low density in the roads vicinity (e.g., Zabala et al. 2005). Assuming that the carnivores we studied included roads in their territories, we can predict the annual mortality rate due to collisions with vehicles. Considering a territory of ~5km2 for Mediterranean red foxes and badgers (e.g. Cavallini and Lovari 1994, Rosalino et al. 2005) we estimate that 50% of the red foxes that live close to the roads die each year and the same happens to 12% of the badgers. A similar approach was done for stone marten, genet, and Egyptian mongoose assuming that their mean territory size was ~3km2 (Palomares and Delibes 1993, Santos-Reis et al. 2004). We estimated that 16%, 10%, and 12% died due to vehicle collisions, respectively. Additionally, this study provided evidence that road mortality is not randomly distributed in time and may limit specific life-history movements with potential consequences for population demography (e.g. Baker et al. 2007). Road mortality may compromise breeding success for red fox, stone marten, and Egyptian mongoose and dispersal for Eurasian badger. High red fox and stone marten casualties during the period when provisioning young may place them at greater risk. The high number of road casualties during the breeding and dispersal period when individuals were likely to be moving through unfamiliar terrain and would have to cross roads may also result in unbiased sex-ratios and age distributions with implications on the population structure and density. 135 135 General Discussion On the other hand, culverts and underpasses facilitate the crossing of highways by carnivores, and appear to be important to minimize the potential barrier effect of the highways. In general, carnivores preferred larger passages with vegetation close to the passage entrances, favourable habitat in the surrounding area, and low disturbance by humans. The mean passage rate for carnivores over the two studied highways sections was 0.7 ind./passages/day (paper III). Egyptian mongoose (28%) and badger (27%) crossed most frequently, followed by fox (18%), stone marten (12%), genet (12%) and otter (2%); however, weasels, Western polecats, and wildcats were not detected in the passages, suggesting that highways might be selectively permeable. Low densities near the highway and the avoidance of artificial since they are used to move along linear corridors such as walls and riparian habitats may explain the results referring to these last species (e.g. Santos-Reis 1989, Rondinini et al. 2006, Mestre et al. 2007, Klar et al. 2008). The rate of passage by some carnivores suggests that the road permeability is not a problem. However, daily movement does not necessarily include the regular use of passages. We suspect that individuals persisted in crossing over the road directly, neglecting the presence of passages. Low traffic volume at night (<2500 vehicles), once most species are restricted to night activity (Blanco 1998), may have promoted animals to cross over the road and not use crossing structures as regularly as expected (Seiler 2003). This may be the case for individuals that incorporated roads within their territory, as documented in an ongoing radio-tracking study with stone martens (Grilo et al. 2008). 6.1.3 IS ALENTEJO STRUCTURALLY CONNECTED FOR CARNIVORE SPECIES? The high representativeness of “montado” areas (papers I and IV), the low human population (~21 inhabitants.km-2 excluding major cities) and the average road network density (half of the mean national road network density) holds significant potential value for carnivore guild conservation at Alentejo region. Nevertheless, recent human induced landscape changes, mainly due to agriculture intensification and road network expansion, may threaten carnivores species including some of those considered common and wide-ranging (papers I, II, III and IV). In spite of Alentejo 136 136 General Discussion being originally entirely covered by “montado” this forest is presently reduced to less than 40% of the land cover and the quality and the configuration of the “montado” may limit carnivore persistence. The results presented here show only a low degree of “montado” connectivity in southeastern part of the study area for stone marten (paper IV), the species most affected by “montado” fragmentation (paper I). But the evidence of low distance movements (paper I) may increase the concern for the degree of “montado” connectivity in the region for mongooses. Surprisingly, riparian areas appeared to play only a small role as potential corridors to promote connectivity among the “montado” patches, neither for stone martens nor for mongooses in spite of the fact that Matos et al. (2008) have previously shown a marked association of carnivores with riparian habitats. Only in the cost surface analysis (paper IV), did the variable distance to streams appear to influence stone marten “montado” patches occupancy. Therefore, the 0.45 km.km-2 of streams and the associated vegetation in the study area seems to have little importance as habitat or provide long movement corridor for carnivores, but rather as a landscape feature that provides shelter and cover as well foraging opportunities (Virgos 2001, Matos et al. 2008). The permeability of the road network is, also, a key factor for the ability of carnivores to move and disperse. Data from 2004 show that the study area has a daily traffic of 9 357±5 018 vehicles in the A2 and A6 and 8 341 ± 3 262 in the national roads surveyed; this is significantly lower than the average estimates for the 1 014km of BRISA highways (25 244 ± 23 402). The average daily values at night decrease significantly to 1 944 ± 1 152 in A2 and A6 and 1 034 ± 456 in the national roads. According to the conceptual model showed by Seiler (2003), these values suggest low mortality risk to carnivore and a low avoidance effect because, apparently, with less than 2 500 vehicles/day, animals appear to successfully cross the roads with only few collisions with vehicles while attempting to cross. Nevertheless, the death of the individuals even in road sections with high crossing success may not assure their persistence close to the roads. For example, it is not yet known whether the high number of red fox casualties in this study (paper II) is additive or compensatory to other mortality factors. Equally, the incidence of stone marten road-kills (paper IV) in road segments traversing well connected landscapes may represent a serious threat to long-term population stability and viability (Dixon et al. 2006). 137 137 General Discussion The road permeability however may be aided by the use of crossing structures. We showed the regular use of these structures by the majority of the carnivore species. Crossing structure availability and spacing are also indicators of road permeability level (Bissonette and Adair 2008). On average we found 2.5 crossing structures/km (culverts, viaducts, under- and overpasses) on the A2 and A6 highway and a lower number (1.02 crossing structures/km) on the main national roads (314km) of the study area, which means that the average spacing between crossings structures was 400 m and 980 m, respectively. According to Bissonette and Adair (2008) spacing of crossings can be determined by the scaling properties of species movement, and therefore, by the isometric measure that express the daily (√home-range) and median dispersal distance (7*√home-range). For species with home-ranges ranging from ~100 to ~500ha (SantosReis 1989, Santos-Reis et al. 2004, Rosalino et al. 2005), we conclude that permeability may be assured in the region for the daily (1 000 – 2 236 m) and dispersal movement for the carnivores guild (7 000 – 15 652 m). 6.2 CHALLENGES AND PRIORITIES IN CARNIVORE CONSERVATION IN ALENTEJO The species-specific and the broad-scale analysis of the anthropogenically changed landscape reveal uneven conservation portrait on the carnivore guild in southern Portugal. The geographic focus of research on carnivores does not necessarily represent areas where carnivore communities have been most adversely affected but rather have a great conservation potential. Although some of these species have benefited from research attention (e.g. Virgós 2001, Virgós and Garcia 2002, Mortelitti and Boitani 2008, Rosalino et al. 2008), none of them have receive conservation efforts or legal protection (except Western polecat, Eurasian otter and wildcat, Cabral et al. 2005). The results presented here suggest increased attention to species that display unexpected vulnerability, but for which the state of knowledge is still insufficient to quantify the increasing threats for population viability over the long-term. The emergence of small- and medium- sized carnivores as the new top carnivores in these 138 138 General Discussion impacted landscapes is not necessarily assured. The opportunity exists in human transformed landscapes to prevent further losses of carnivore species but this will require additional focused research and conservation attention towards species, as well as incorporating adequate mitigation measures in future land-use and roads construction. This thesis has tried to illuminate conservation priorities focused on the carnivore guild in Alentejo. While the recommendations are not exhaustive, they highlight important and achievable actions in the region. Therefore, we hope the recommendations provided here inform ongoing efforts to conserve these species and stimulate the development of new initiatives. 6.2.1 IMPROVE KNOWLEDGE ON THE IMPACTS OF HUMAN INDUCED CHANGES ON CARNIVORES GUILD Among the well-studied carnivores in this study, stone marten, rise to the top in priority for research attention. Apparently, “montado” seems to be structurally connected for stone marten in the majority of the study area, but the functional connectivity is only assessed by genetic analysis (e.g. Wang et al. 2008). Further, “montado” connectivity still remains unknown for species with apparent lower mobility, e.g., Egyptian mongoose. Hence, demonstrations of the genetic consequences of fragmentation of habitat by anthropogenic activities, including roads, are needed to develop more accurate plans to mitigate their effects (e.g. Riley et al. 2006, Millions and Swanson 2007). Several other factors that are much more difficult to measure should be included in future studies if possible. They include assessments of population abundance, prey availability, relevant species interactions (e.g., predation), and other factors including predator control (e.g. Patten and Bolger 2003, Tanner and Perry 2007, Barrientos and Bolonio 2008, Mortelitti and Boitani 2008). Additional knowledge of these variables will help to determine the direction and magnitude of the human induced effects. For example, selective mortality effects on the demography and population genetics of selected populations would provide most useful information. A recent study suggest that road mortality has been implicated as a significant demographic force in turtles, particularly for females, which are killed disproportionately during overland nesting movements (Gibbs and Steen 2005). 139 139 General Discussion Therefore, long-term road surveys would help us understand if the road mortality may induce significant changes in the sex-ratio and age-structure of populations. When considered independently, human induced changes may have relatively minor impacts on the wildlife conservation. However, if considered collectively, the impacts can be devastating. A comprehensive understanding of additive or compensatory effects of incremental human-induced changes would inform management. Such an approach ideally should include the assessment of the habitat suitability, characteristics of the road network, and wildlife connectivity, as they affect populations at multiple scales – from smaller movement patterns to habitat selection at landscape scale (e.g. Beaudry et al. 2008, Roger and Ramp 2009). It is important to understand if and how species respond to effects expressed at finer scale extents, because this is the scale at which management decisions are typically made to conserve local populations. Therefore, the behavioral response of individuals towards roads through the movement patterns analysis is required using more precise techniques (e.g., radio-tracking) and may clarify the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Finally, this study also enhanced an apparently unfavorable status of some species represented in the landscape, namely the weasel and the western polecat, together with the threatened wildcat (Cabral et al. 2005), and these deserve special attention. These species need target studies of their basic ecology, to identify their population status, trend and ecological requirements, and therefore the putative impacts of human disturbance. 6.2.2 FOCUS CONSERVATION ACTION ON RESTORING HABITATS Management policies may be more effective if they take into account speciesspecific life-history characteristics and are conducted at multiple scales (Wu 2007). Given the need of carnivores to access resources in highly humanized landscapes such as those in the Mediterranean, high habitat quality and connectivity to large habitat patches appears to be key attributes for the persistence of the carnivore guild (paper I and IV). “Montado” conservation and restoration would benefit by receiving considerably more attention from scientists, land managers and policy makers. 140 140 General Discussion Nowadays, the “montado” is a result of cleared large areas of forest/shrubby cover, soil erosion where the resources were deteriorated, due to intensive live stocking and cultivation (Pinto Correia 1993). Despite its current conservation value for the carnivore guild, “montado” restoration efforts may increase its potential value as habitat for them. Restoration is most effectively accomplished when it encompasses the improvement of other associated landscape elements; e.g., riparian areas and scrublands. Several studies have reported higher species richness and abundance of most species in the riparian areas than in the surrounding matrix (Hilty and Merenlender 2004, Lees and Peres 2008, Matos et al. 2008), suggesting a higher importance for carnivore conservation in the most deforested and impacted areas (Virgós 2001). Equally, the importance of riparian areas as movement corridors has been acknowledged elsewhere (e.g. Simberloff and Cox 1987, Hobbs 1992), but we detected no such evidence in this study. Hence, riparian habitat restoration initiatives could enhance their role as potential corridors. A growing number of studies have already highlighted the importance of scrublands in providing cover and shelter for predatory activities, or minimizing the predation risk, being highly beneficial for many carnivore species (e.g. Virgós and Casanovas 1997, Revilla et al. 2001, Mangas et al. 2008). In the region, we found some areas covered by scrublands as a consequence of progressive rural abandonment. Nevertheless, large areas of scrubland are not recommended because they may decrease the availability of herbaceous areas that provide food resources for prey and upon which carnivores depend. Additionally, scrublands appear to promote strong and large standing fires fire events during dry summers. In order to improve the conservation value of the “montado” as well as the matrix quality, we suggest managing landscapes that combine scrublands and pasture lands in order to develop a mosaic of scrub-pastureland (Lozano et al. 2003). The objective is to create a mosaic of vegetation types that mimic historical landscapes that were produced by the traditional practices implemented over decades, where people conducted small shrub removal by cattle grazing. 141 141 General Discussion 6.2.3 MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF ROAD CONSTRUCTION AND THEIR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS Existing structures built for other purposes (e.g., drainage culverts, and belowgrade local access roads) that are numerous over the roads and highways, have documented to be crucial to mitigate the barrier effect of the road network (paper III). The incorporation of crossing structures in the construction of major roads through suitable habitat areas for species concerned and far from human disturbance, may improve functional habitat connectivity and may also greatly reduced the number of road-related mortalities (Clevenger and Waltho 2005, Mata et al. 2008). The construction of large passages enhances permeability, because it enhances the likelihood of a structure being used (paper III). Natural substrate on the floor of the crossing structures appears to improve the natural continuity of the habitat and therefore, enhances their use by animals (Yanes et al. 1995). Plant vegetation at passage entrances to guide animals towards the existing structure; and the maintenance of natural material inside the passage (soil, logs, rocks, woody debris) will help encourage use by species that tend to avoid open areas and use linear corridors (e.g. weasel and Western polecat). In contrast, frequent verge mowing in road segments with curves to enhance visual quality are recommended; they would aid motorists in seeing animals about to cross. Although the number of passages needed was not addressed in this study, it seems to be crucial that the greater the opportunities available for crossings, the lower the possible impacts on the population demographics (Olsson et al. 2008). Bissonette and Adair (2008) suggested that the placement of passages should be based on the HR0.5 metric to re-establish roads permeability, but the number and spacing of crossings alone may not prevent population isolation and decline. For example, Riley et al. (2006), found that bobcats and coyotes that cross the freeway rarely reproduced, and hence experienced a decreased genetically effective migration. Currently the use of fences is a subject of great controversy among planners and nature conservationists. Fences can reduce mortality but may increase population fragmentation if animals cannot or do not use crossing structures (Boarman et al. 1997). 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