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SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS, SINGAPORE MANAGEMENT UNIVERSITY Academic Year 2011 – 2012, Term One STAT101 on OLI: Introductory Statistics on OLI: Statistical Reasoning & Practice Rosie Ching, [email protected], (65)68280587, Level 5, Room 5048, 90 Stamford Road, School of Economics, Singapore Management University. COURSE OVERVIEW Both a science and an art, statistics is in our everyday lives, from economics to physics, accountancy to medicine, business to technology, geography to law, social science to politics, a veritable, all-embracing giant. No discipline does well that disavows it and eschews it. Though many occupations many not require specialized statistics degrees, they demand at least a working knowledge of statistics and an able competency with statistical software and results management. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Visit http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/ and explore “Statistical Reasoning” for a preview. This course will run chiefly on OLI, short for Carnegie Mellon University’s “Online Learning Initiative”, championed by the School of Information Systems. This is the first OLI foray for the STAT101 course, where students will learn and practice their skills online, with the instructor as a guiding force in running analyses by hand, through Excel all towards sound decision-making. ASSESSMENT METHODS The assessment in this course will be based on the following broad criteria, to be elaborated upon in due course. Attendance & Class Participation: Term Test: 10% 25% Completion of materials and activities on time as outlined: Final Paper: 25% 40% ACADEMIC INTEGRITY (SMU Official Rules) All acts of academic dishonesty (including, but not limited to, plagiarism, cheating, fabrication, facilitation of acts of academic dishonesty by others, unauthorized possession of exam questions, or tampering with the academic work of other students) are serious offences. All work (whether oral or written) submitted for purposes of assessment must be the student’s own work. Penalties for violation of the policy range from zero marks for the component assessment to expulsion, depending on the nature of the offense. When in doubt, students should consult the instructors of the course. Details on the SMU Code of Academic Integrity may be accessed at http://www.smuscd.org/resources.html. CLASS TIMINGS This course will run for twelve weekly sessions, each session lasting 195 minutes, with online problem-solving and offline cases given by the instructor. Additional notes and resources will be posted online, so students are to download in advance of each week’s class. Mandatory equipment include a laptop with a working Internet connection, scientific calculator (graphical ones are optional). It is also crucial to complete all prior online benchmarks at least three days before each weekly session. The instructor will provide any notes deemed necessary, either online or off. CORE TEXTS & SOFTWARE No core text is necessary, but an Excel add-in "PHStat", named for "Prentice Hall" is highly recommended which this course will use as a handy tool, not as an assessment. Get it from the CDROM in 1 below, also available at the library. REFERENCES For the willing: 1. "Introductory Statistics Guide Book" (Rosie Ching, Prentice-Hall, 2008) (CD-ROM, 9 chapters) Written for students, this fully-printable guide abounds with by-hand working, screenshots, output interpretations, and a whole gamut of examples. Detailed attention is paid to problem-busting methods, and step-wise PHStat routines. 2. "Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel" by David M. Levine, David Stephan, Timothy C. Krehbiel & Mark L. Berenson (Prentice-Hall, Global Edition, 2010). Rich in examples, exercises and case studies. Like 1 above, PHStat receives extensive coverage. Page 1 of 4 The SMU Li Ka Shing Library holds many statistics titles (Lind, Bowerman All titles and more (Bowerman, Doane, etc.) available for borrowing. The "Introductory Statistics" student bundle and Levine are also sold at BookLink. POLICY ON ATTENDANCE Although online learning can be done anywhere, this maiden OLI foray requires a greater degree of guidance from the instructor. Therefore your physical presence is required as in a laboratory computer session. Missing lessons means also forfeiting opportunities to contribute to discussions and activities. As a result, every missed session, with the exception of an "Excused Absence", erodes the class participation grade. Excused Absence: an excused absence covered by any one of the following: 1. A medical certificate (M.C.) or a doctor’s letter 2. A letter from your school Dean or NS superior or parties relevant, for reasons of absence submitted to the instructor before the missed class(es), stating clearly what will be missed. (test/quiz/class) 3. If absence for any assessments is a valid “Excused Absence”, the student is responsible for seeking the instructor’s advice about the missed assessment percentage. Unexcused Absence: Not an excused absence. “Unexcused Absences” receive zero for missed assessments. COURSE SCHEDULE: This is only a rough guide. The instructor will inform students well in advance of key dates. Please visit http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/ to preview “Statistical Reasoning”. Week Date Material that needs to be covered by this date, exams and review sessions Unit 1: 1 Introduction Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) Introduction (EDA) Module 1: Examining Distributions One Categorical Variable One Quantitative Variable Graphs Histogram Stemplot Numerical Measures Measures of Centre Measures of Spread Boxplot Standard Deviation Wrap-up (Distributions) + StatTutor + My Response + Checkpoint + My Response Summary (EDA) 2 Module 2: Examining Relationships Role-Type Classification Case C-Q Case C-C Case Q-Q Scatterplot Linear Relationships Causation Wrap-up (Relationships) + StatTutor + My Response + Checkpoint + My Response Page 2 of 4 3 4 5 6 7 8 Unit 3: Probability Module 5: Introduction (Probability) Relative Frequency Module 6: Random Variables Discrete Random Variables Continuous Random Variables Probability Distributions Normal Random Variables Standard Normal Table Applications Wrap-up (Random Variables) + StatTutor + My Response + Checkpoint + My Response Module 7: Sampling Distributions Parameters vs. Statistics Behaviour of Sample Proportion Behaviour of Sample Mean Wrap-up (Sampling Distributions) + StatTutor + My Response + Checkpoint + My Response Summary (Probability) Unit 4: Inference Statistical Inference Module 8: Introduction (Inference) Inference for One Variable Module 9: Estimation Point Estimation Interval Estimation Confidence Interval for the Population Mean Confidence Interval for the Population Proportion Module 10: Hypothesis Testing Overview Hypothesis Testing for the Population Proportion Hypothesis Testing for the Population Mean Wrap-up (Hypothesis Testing) + StatTutor + My Response + Checkpoint + My Response Inference for Relationships Module 11: Case C-Q Two Independent Samples Matched Pairs Conclusion of Case C-Q Term Break (No Classes) Page 3 of 4 9 Module 12: Case C-C and Q-Q Case C-C Case Q-Q Summary (Inference) Wrap-up (Inference for Relationships) + My Response + Checkpoint + My Response 10 Review 11 Review 12 Review 13 14 15 Catch-Up Week (Review) Reading Week (No Classes) FINAL EXAMINATION FINAL WORDS Torture numbers, and they'll confess to anything. ~ Gregg Easterbrook Make the most of this course to get ahead in statistics, and you will reap a lot of respect for the knowledge that will stay with you throughout your life. Bonne chance! Yours sincerely, Rosie Ching ************************************************************************************************** Page 4 of 4