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Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 INDEX Page A. PREFACE B. SUMMARY 1 2 1. DEFINITION AND SCOPE OF THE ALLIANCE 3 1.1 Introduction 3 1.2 Southeast Pacific Regional Alliance for Global Ocean Observing System (GRASP) 1.2.1 The Mission 1.2.2 Objectives 1.2.3 The Principles 4 2. FUNDAMENTS TO FORMULATE THE STRATEGIC PLAN FOR THE ALLIANCE 7 2.1 Ocean regional observation: application priorities in socioeconomic field of the parties 7 2.2 Observing needs and scientific gaps in the Southeast Pacific 2.2.1 Early warning for natural events in the coastal strip 2.2.2 Understanding the large marine-coastal ecosystems 2.2.3 Understanding the ocean dynamic and its role in the climate 2.2.4 Oceanographic variability associated to the climate change in the Region 2.2.5 Ocean-atmosphere in the Southeast Pacific in relation to the ENOS 11 11 12 12 13 3. OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY SOUTHEAST PACIFIC REQUERIMENTS IN THE 3.1 An approach to the requirements of users 3.1.1 Key actors and stakeholders 3.1.2 The scientific community 3.1.3 Governments 3.2 Regional base and meteorological data management of 4 5 5 16 17 17 18 19 19 oceanographic and 3.3 Design the system to information capturing of GRASP 4. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC OBSERVING REGIONAL SYSTEM 20 22 23 4.1 Component elements of GRASP 23 4.2 Observing module 23 4.3 Communication module 24 I Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 4.4 Data processing module 25 4.5 Module of generation of operational products 25 4.6 Information provision module 27 4.7 Module of the regional oceanographic database 28 4.8 Module of data Exchange 29 5. TRAINING AND STRENGTHENING CAPACITIES 29 5.1 Capacitation and training module 31 5.2 Scientific research module 36 5.3 Strengthening capacities module 5.3.1 Regional and national approach 5.3.2 Equipment and maintenance 36 37 38 5.4 Module of international management and financing 42 6. GRASP AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS 43 6.1 Interaction with GOOS 43 6.2 Interaction with IODE – ODINCARSA 43 6.3 Interaction with TEMA 43 6.4 Interaction with JCOMM 44 6.5 Interaction with GLOSS 44 6.6 Interaction with GEOSS 44 6.7 Interaction with VOCALS 44 6.8 Interaction with ARGO 45 6.9 Interaction with CLIVAR 45 6.10 Other programs 45 7. PLAN OF ACTION OF GRASP (2009-2010) 45 7.1 Plan of Action (Prioritized temporary framework in which the Plan will be broken down in tasks, goals and actions, with identification of responsible for or interested in) 45 7.2 Funding 46 C. REFERENCES 48 APENDIX I Glossary 48 II Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 STRATEGIC PLAN OF GRASP A. Preface 1 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 STRATEGIC PLAN PROPOSAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC REGIONAL ALLIANCE FOR OCEAN OBSERVING (GRASP) 1. DEFINITION AND SCOPE OF THE ALLIANCE 1.1 Introduction Oceans are the key component of the climate system, given that they modulate the climate. They act as a sink or source of important gases of the greenhouse effect (GHE) and play a fundamental role in the world hydrologic cycle. Moreover, they have a socioeconomic importance due to the marine biological resources they have which sustain the fisheries around the world. The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) is jointly sponsored by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), but it also counts with the scientific orientation of the International Council for Science (ICSU). In 1989, the GOOS was firstly imagined by the IOC and later ratified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, it was officially approved in March 1991 during the XVI Assembly of the IOC. In 1992, the GOOS was ratified by the Conference in the United Nations Conference Summit on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro which recommended its creation in the Agenda 21, as a tool for the marine environment management. . It is under this context that GOOS is a permanent system for observation, modeling and analysis of marine and ocean variables to support operational oceanic services worldwide. GOOS provides global data related to sea surface temperature, winds, waves, salinity, sea level and surface flows, also, temperature and salinity in the upper layers of the ocean, surface and subsurface currents, the extension of the marine ice (thickness and coverage area), full profiles in depth on the physicalchemical properties of seawater (including traces) and pressure depth. Moreover, critical data such as altimetry and ocean surface winds are collected by space-based systems. The direct beneficiaries of services provided by GOOS are coast, ports and bay authorities, harbor-work engineers, fishing, aquaculture, navigation, maritime routes, subsea gas and oil industry, cable and pipe laying, recreation and tourism. On the other hand, the indirect beneficiaries are the meteorological and climate forecast users, such as for the agriculture, energy, freshwater and public health sector. Given the fact that the ocean processes respect or recognize no border, GOOS is supported by research cooperation programs at local, regional and global level. This achieves useful products within a reasonable timeframe, which are constantly improved in form, geographic coverage and value. 2 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 The implementation of said products depends on the exploitation of the existing level of scientific knowledge and on the coordination of the entities that carry out the research at operational level. It is in this context that on May 31st, 2003, in Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, representatives from the main Research Institutions of the Region’s countries, signed a Letter of Intent to promote the Operational Oceanography in the Southeastern Pacific by establishing the Global Ocean Observing System Regional Alliance for the Southeast Pacific, GRASP). The aforementioned letter was officially delivered to the IOC during the XXII General Assembly held in Paris, France in June 2003. Then, in October 2005, the formalization of said Alliance took place at the “High Level Meeting for Strengthening the GRASP”, from then on, GRASP was constituted within the integrated observing and surveillance ocean system for the South American coast and is part of the Regional GOOS. 1.2 Global Ocean Observing System Pacific (GRASP) Regional Alliance for the Southeast 1.2.1 The Mission The mission of the Global Ocean Observing System Regional Alliance for the Southeast Pacific (GRASP) is to develop activities to promote the operational oceanography in the South Eastern Pacific region, using a regional network to acquire, integrate and distribute systematic oceanic observations and to generate analysis, forecasts and other useful products for governments, industry, science and general public. Furthermore, GRASP will evaluate potential economical and social benefits generated by the operational oceanography and it will cooperate with the organizations involved in the assessment of the marine environment and the impact of climate variability and climate change. 1.2.2 Objectives - To develop activities to boost operational oceanography as the basis for existing programs and infrastructure in the Southeastern Pacific. - To coordinate the GOOS activities and ensure their integration with other world observation and marine environmental strategies. - To keep an observing database to meet all the world and regional community requirement of users of the marine environment and oceanic knowledge. - To facilitate means by which the region’s countries can increase their capacity to acquire and used marine data according to the GOOS principles. To develop and implement a coordinated strategy for the gathering, acquisition and exchange of data among the Region’s countries. - 3 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 - To facilitate the use of products and services developed upon regional data and widen their application in the use and protection of the marine environment. - To promote capacity-building and sharing knowledge among the members of the Alliance. 1.2.3 The Principles The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) establishes principles related to design the program and participation; therefore, GRASP shall adopt both principles as follows: Principles related to the program Design: - GOOS is based on a plan designed to meet defined objectives according to user needs. The design assumed that contributions to GOOS are long term and systematic. The design will be reviewed annually. The design allows for flexibility of technique. GOOS aims towards world problems and those omnipresent problems which can find solutions in global observing systems. The design covers the range from data capture to service delivery and end products. The management, processing and distribution of data will follow a specified data policy. The design takes into account the existence of systems others than GOOS that can contribute to and/or benefit from GOOS. The design takes into account quality assurance procedures. Principles related to Participation: - Contributions to GOOS shall be compliant with the plans developed and approved on the basis of the above Design Principles. Contributions shall be compliant with a defined GOOS data policy. Contributions should reflect the intent for sustained observations. Contributions to GOOS shall respect standards of quality. Implementation shall be carried out using existing national and international systems and organization where appropriate. Implementation shall be incremental ad progressive, while always bearing in mind the long term goals. Participation in GOOS implies a commitment to help less-developed countries to participate and to obtain benefits. Participants will have full autonomy in the management of their contributions. Contributing countries and organizations will reserve the right to determine and limit their contributions to GOOS. Use of GOOSE “label” implies conformity with the respective principles of GOOS. 4 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 2. GROUNDS TO FORMULATE A STRATEGIC PLAN FOR ALLIANCE 2.1 The ocean regional observation: priorities of application on the parties socio-economic aspect. Natural Disasters are a threat for sustainable development and along their cycle they are an imminent social connotation. According to Geo Risk Research, 2005, it has become evident that over the last 50 years there has been an increment in disasters, deaths and an economic loss increase. Disasters classified by threats suggest a high frequency and economic impact in relation to hydro-meteorological events. However, the events from seismic origin such as tsunamis, eruptions and earthquakes represent the greatest life loss (Fig. 1). Fig. 1 In this same context, flood and draughts at worldwide level make evident an exponential increment throughout the years, which could reflect the occurrence of two processes. On one hand, the increasing climate variability in the planet and on the other, an increment in the vulnerability associated to the increase in population and development (Fig. 2). 5 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Fig. 2 The burden of natural disasters in the countries cannot be quantified by the total amount of losses, but rather by the percentage of such losses in the Gross Domestic Product. (Fig. 3) shows that contrast for the year 2006 (CRED, 2007). Fig. 3 To analyze a probable regional system of early warning for marine-coastal threats in the Southeast Pacific region, it must be established what are the essential components and what threats are the most likely to be attended by the system. 6 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 From the methodological point of view and the guidelines of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) concerning the early warning systems, different climate information can be implemented at regional level with the following components: 1) A forecast module of the threat that implies an observation, processing and scientific knowledge system to contribute in its modeling and if possible, to predict future behavior. 2) Generation of risk scenarios with the possibility to solve the dynamic and changes inherent to vulnerability. These scenarios are sectoral by the definition on the own risk which in essence is differentiated and specific for each threat. A regional system must be focused on the mapping of the risk in the developing area, those that move the economy and have a deep social impact in the countries of the region. 3) Optimization of data systems that allow transferring the threat forecast and the probable scenarios to all social actors, so that they guarantee a response, reaction or decision before the early warning. 4) An open line of communication with all governmental sectors at national or local level, so that they move forward the response to the early warning, otherwise, the system is just not activated or it does not even exist. The diagram is shown in Figure 4. The most likely threats in the Southeast Pacific Ocean are: Tsunamis. El Niño/La Niña Extreme climate events Accelerated sea-level rise Coastal degradation Marine pollution Ecosystem alteration 7 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Amenazas Fig. 4 In order to achieve a suitable, coherent and effective system of early warning within a national diagram of risk management, in general terms (Fig. 5), a positive response from the Government must be generated, which at the same time must become a political instrument, no circumstantial, but in the long term and taking into account what follows: • • • • • Risk transfer mechanisms. Sectoral planning including disaster risks. Territorial ordering. Decentralization. Strengthening of local capacity, among others. Currently, given the technological advances and the global observing expansion through remote sensors, as well as, of ARGO (A Global Array of Profiling Floats Projects), the observation in the region is fairly covered. In the Southeast Pacific there are observing systems, especially coastal ones but for now, they have not been integrated in the regional products. 8 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Fig. 5 2.2 Observing requirements and scientific gaps in the Southeast Pacific 2.2.1 Early warning for natural events at the coastal strip One of the most important scientific gaps in the region is the predictability in the area of El NIÑO 1+2, which is mostly associated to the limitations in oceanatmosphere modeling at regional and local scale. There is not enough understanding about inter-annual, seasonal and inter-seasonal variability that regulates this area; consequently, early warning for the coastal strip is based on empirical and previous experiences. Modeling at regional scale requires a data assimilation system which implies the exploitation of data in real time coming from the NAYLAMP Systems in Peru, Spondylus in Ecuador, as well as buoys moored in Chile, Colombia and Peru. The configuration of the early warning system begins from a minimum effort of integrated observation through the previously described systems; its strengthening and integration of data for assimilation in regional models to allow the forecast and appropriate provision of oceanic forecast in the short, medium and long term applied to the coastal strip and marine climate. 2.2.2 Understanding the large marine-coastal ecosystems 9 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Understanding the dynamic of the Humboldt ecosystem and the adjacent marine-coastal ecosystems in the region is one of the most pressing needs in the medium term. Although, over the last years a remarkable progress has been generated in understanding the oceanic processes from an ecosystemic approach, such approximation is too asymmetric in the region and for now, it has no regional perspective. The limited understanding of ecosystems at present, it is day by day becoming more restrictive to foresee their evolution before new climate drivers, for example, global warming and even worse, regional and national strategies to adapt to this effect. The observing systems must integrate physical, chemical and biological information, both in oceanic areas as well as coastal-marine, allowing a real understanding of their dynamic and modeling. Gaps in this matter raise the following scientific questions: Do we know enough about the present coastal degradation processes and pollution in the region as to recommend actions to revert them? Do we understand enough the marine-coastal ecosystems as to intervene in their future evolution? 2.2.3 Understanding the ocean dynamic and the role it plays in the climate. The much localized efforts in knowledge of the ocean dynamic in the region means that the existing capacity to forecast the surface and subsurface temperature of the Southeast Pacific is limited, as evidenced by El Niño since 97-97. The little known correlation between the processes associated to the ENOS (El Niño and the Southern Oscillation) and what happens in the region of the NIÑO 1+2 in the overall coastal zone of the Southeast Pacific, increments even more the need to unify the scientific efforts based on ocean observation and modeling to better solve the ocean-atmosphere interaction at regional and national scale. Therefore, the systemic combination of ocean observations and meteorological stations for assimilation in reduced scale models- derived from global circulation models- are the pending task in the region. As long as this is not carried out, the capacity of predicting the climate in the region will be very limited and it will not be possible to contribute in a true reduction of socio-economic impacts derived from the climate action. The scientific gaps in these matters raise the following scientific questions: Do we understand the true physical processes that currently rule the atmospheric and oceanic circulation at regional scale? Do we understand the ocean-atmosphere interaction well enough as to improve the climate forecast in the region? 2.2.4 Oceanographic variability associated to climate change in the Region? According to the latest report of the IPCC in 2007, (Figs. 6, 7 and 8), the ocean affectation will be reflected in several aspects: increase in sea temperature, acidification of the oceans, accelerated sea-level rise and alteration of the ecosystems. These global scenarios have not been validated at regional scale. 10 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Consequently, there are very few scientific answers in this matter that can be currently provided to the region’s governments. Ocean observing at regional level becomes an inexorable step for the region, in order to monitoring the oceanographic variability associated to climate change and its effect on the ecosystems, as well as, the sea-level rise by monitoring and processing regionally standardized which allows an approximation in that spatial scale to mitigation and adaptation. Fig. 6 11 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Fig. 7 Fig. 8 12 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 The specific impacts estimated in the ocean are described below (IPCC, 2007) • Marine warming - Since the 60’s in the XX century, the surface temperature increase in an almost 1.5º C in the - Warming at a depth of 3,000 m • Acidification of surface waters – Increment of pH from 8.2 to 8.1 over the last 50 years. • The average sea-level rise – Rise 19.5 cm since 1870 • Increase of extreme meteorological manifestations – Alteration of coast morphology by erosion and floods – Salinitization of lowlands – Negative impact on biodiversity • Species displacement - Modification of the species natural habitat - Displacement from the species distribution areas - Decrease in marine biodiversity • Multiple effects - Eutrophication increase - Coral bleaching - Mangrove deterioration • Pressures coalition on the marine environment - Pollution - Overexploitation of fishing - Uncontrolled increase of urban and/or residential zones. Opportunities to face climate change are: • • Adaptation – To generate strategies to face the level increase in temperature, sea-level, emission of greenhouse gases. • Mitigation – To implement policies for emission reduction and undertake quantitative goals thereof, including economic instruments. • Innovation – Scientific, financial and social, to revert current tendencies within the adaptation and mitigation fields. • Regulation – To use the function of the State and intervention in the market to make transparent the costs and damages. Scale of projects – To emphasize the local and regional actions anchored in communities, assuring its sustainability by the participation of direct social and economic actors without neglecting the global and national measures or macroeconomic or social ones. 13 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 • In this sense, the scientific questions are: Can we establish regional scenarios of climate change and consequently, of the sea-level rise? • Can we establish regional scenarios on the marine ecosystems evolution and their impact in fisheries taking into account the climate change influence? 2.2.5 Ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Southeast Pacific in relation to ENOS • El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENOS) is an alteration of the oceanatmosphere overlapping system of the Equatorial Pacific. It is a recurrent event with irregular periods that last between 3 to 7 years. It is characterized by a steady warming in the sea of Equatorial zone, which alters the atmospheric circulation on the whole Pacific. It modifies the intensity and direction of winds, at the surface as well as in the high atmosphere and altering the climate patterns in the whole Pacific basin. Besides, it generates remote impacts referred as teleconnections on other areas of the planet. The definition of El Niño is a motive for great debates nowadays, since the countries like United States adopted what is called “operational definition” from the ENOS. This definition used since 200 by the NOAA1, transcends the scientific or academic concept of ENOS, to detach a definition which for the United States and other regions such as the Caribbean and Central America, have been effective to take decisions regarding planning, prevention and impact mitigation. NOAA is the most influential organism in the region, then this definition has generated more than one problem in the Andes region, taking into account that it was conceived in terms of impact for other latitudes, nevertheless, it has been many times taken into account to evaluate the ENOS in South America. After the event of El Niño 1997-1998, the scientific literature about ENOS was enriched at unprecedented levels. This climatic episode, given its extraordinary intensity and terrible impacts worldwide, allowed among other things, draw a classical pattern of impacts worldwide, which as of to date was successfully validated. However, since 1998 as of today, the Pacific Ocean-according to many authors- has entered into a new phase of a climatic variability process at decadal2 scale. Although, there is nothing conclusive, the latest scientific analysis suggests that the Pacific Ocean was entering since 1990 into the negative phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), and that one of the probable impacts of this new phase could be the intensity and frequency reduction of warm events known as El Niño and amplify the intensity of cold events know as La Niña3 . 1 National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (USA). Barnett, T. et al, P., D. W. Pierce, M. Latif, D. Dommenget, and R. Saravanan. 1999. Interdecadal interactions between the tropics and midlatitudes in the Pacific basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26: 615-618. 3 Gershunov, A. and T. P. Barnett. Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 79: 2715-2725. 2 14 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 This new hypothesis has been consolidated after several evidences came to the light: the teleconnection patterns or typical impacts of ENOS, previously stated, have been erratic and not congruent with the warm episodes after 19971998. In the Southeast Pacific, cold conditions have prevailed and the events El Niño or close to a Niño have been nothing but weak events. The contradictions between global predictions, from international centers such as NOAA and expected local impacts, make evident the problematic of the definition from ENOS in the world. In this sense, at the Andean level, scientists have assimilated the lesson and today they conduct a more independent analysis process, with greater diversification in information sources, more global models, reducing the dependency on opinions from other international entities for local predictions. The large volume of scientific information, observing in real time, it has been added to local capacity and the empirical experience from the region’s experts to carry out a much more focused diagnostic on the impacts of the countries, which definitely, it is a progress in the Andean countries, particularly Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Chile. However, it is worth mentioning that in terms of local forecast, the development of modeling in the region is still incipient. The international scientific community has achieved immense advances in reference to forecasting the ENOS at global level, leaving behind the scientific interest in improving the predictability of El NIÑO 1+2 and the behavior associated to SST in the East Pacific. It is imperative to define an index or diagram that allows predicting the influence of ENOS in the region and to avoid the dependency on global warnings of ENOS based on the predictions of EL NIÑO 3.4. In this sense, using historical data and data obtained in an operational form, will enable to really compensate the existing gap. The scientific question in this matter is: Can we establish a regional index representing well enough at sub-regional and regional scale the effects derived from ENOS? 1. OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY REQUERIMENTS IN THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC 3.1 An approach to the users’ needs. 3.1.1 Key actors and stakeholders Currently, forecast the effects of ENOS in the SEP are derived from analysis based on the utilization of some models, mainly with local characteristics, on data generated from different institutions in the region, on the results from graphics and models made by international organisms in countries such as the United States, Japan, and the European Union among others. Also, it is based on the experience of the region’s professionals who are working on a conceptual model while taking into account all available information and previously enunciated to carry out the forecast. However, there is not a regional dynamic model yet with all the latest scientific advances on ocean atmosphere interaction, allowing parameterizations and with a diagram of data 15 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 assimilation to be improved in time, to translate it into an object forecast of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and its effect o the region’s climate. Despite the achieved advances, there is a dissimilitude of opinions when it comes to talk about ENOS which mainly come from agents outside the State; creating doubts in the eyes of the governmental stakeholders (sometimes the opinions of the official entities not taken into account as in the case of ENFEN(National Study of the ENFO) of each country, and they come along with non-official opinions that are published in different press means, even with agencies coming from other regions) as well as in the eyes of the common citizen. We add to this factor, the information systems to timely deliver the information to key actors and decisiontakers. GRASP must include within its strategy the right linking between the information producers and the users. In this sense, several institutions can be identified in different countries of the region. They can deliver, within the GRASP, the spreading and dissemination system of operational products through its infrastructure and contact network in the whole region. The currently information diagram used by the International Research Center on El Niño (CIIFEN) can also be used by the GRASP. Figure 9 Fig. 9 16 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 3.1.2 The scientific community Over the past years, the region has been better synchronized with operational institutions or agencies and with the academic sector. However, in some cases, it does not present a great academic demand mainly due to the absence of researchers or scientists interested in ocean-atmosphere subjects. In other cases, there is a demand but with a difficult or troublesome Access to data required by the scientists of universities, subsequently, the demand as well as the research, decrease. GRASP could become the bridge between both sectors through a suitable articulation of data between the access to database and the corresponding scientific counterpart from universities in which the operational institutions take part in the research teams and publications. The sole structuring of the database of GRASP could become a very powerful negotiation tool to motivate scientific production under guidelines previously exposed in this Strategic Plan. The contribution of universities within the GRASP are directly related to the scientific production effort, as the reference literature and the access to advanced networks such as CLARA, EELA and others, so that, the benefits can be shared with operational entities. The role played by the universities could be embodied within GRASP by undertaking part of the scientific lines of action which will be proposed in the last Chapter of this Plan. To create instances of financing research projects so that researches from universities and research centers will be interested in taking part. 3.1.3 Governments Although, it is not a general rule in the region, Governments are becoming more demanding about good quality information to take decisions. Science and technology have advanced enough to provide better quality responses to governments but the region’s capacity has not advanced in the same rhythm. Facing more complex problems, the region’s institutions must unify efforts and share capacities to deliver better products and optimize costs on the basis of a cooperation scheme, as the one that the GRASP can provide. In the proposed information system, reaching the Government is done by expedite means which guarantee the timely arrival of information. The experience shows that the formal and official channels are not compatible with the operational speed of GRASP, which must have by definition and it is prescribed in the principles of GOOS. The information for governments must be the motive for a whole sub-system of information provision including senior at middle-management level, operational management and of course, the top highest authorities. For this purpose, the distribution protocol shall be as flexible as possible, as far as the product quality control is guaranteed by the institutions of GRASP which will be a shared task. 17 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 The identification of contacts within the Governments is established in the mapping of actors with the capacity of motivating an effective response at the highest level, with no need to have the message delivered at such level from the beginning. This distribution network involves local authorities, government departments (ministries), planning offices, civil defense among others. 3.2 Regional base and meteorological and oceanic management. The institutions members of GRASP benefit directly from a very strong process of strengthening capacities, implemented by ODINCARSA / IODE (Data and Information Network for the Caribbean and South America/ Intergovernmental Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange) www.odincarsa.org, as part of one of the most successful efforts of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission in the SEP. This process must be seen reflected on the generation of products, but previously, it must be constituted what can be classified as the core of the GRASP, the regional database which is the module that really articulates the capturing of data in an operational manner; operational must be understood as the real time in the most advanced state of the system, but begging at a less complicated diagram, first like the differed time and almost real time. Said database would be in the core of the Permanent Commission for South Pacific (CPPS). The proposed product generation system which is part of the action of ODINCARSA for the 2008-2011 period can be identified in Figure 10. Fig. 10 18 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 The identification of contacts within the Governments is established in the mapping of actors with the capacity of motivating an effective response at the highest level, with no need to have the message delivered at such level from the beginning. This distribution network involves local authorities, government departments (ministries), planning offices, civil defense among others. Datos diarios, estaciones costeras (TSM, salinidad, oxígeno, clorofila y viento) Datos diarios, estaciones costeras del NMM Figure 11 The regional database of GRASP would be gradually consolidated, starting with the most basic and accessible information. The following information sources were taken into consideration for this diagram: 1) Data coming from regional cruisers. 2) Data from the stations 10 miles off the coast. 3) Oceanographic and meteorological data collected from coastal stations. 4) Data from ocean buoys. 5) Data from extra regional sources such as ARGO, NCEP, WCD, CORIOLIS, among others. 6) Data collected from other research centers and institutions that can contribute in the generation of operational products. 7) Data from re-analysis, e.g. ERA 40 from the ECMWF, among others. 19 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Taking into account the scientific gaps in the region, as well as the socioeconomic priorities in the region, the formulated priority areas of GRASP are indicated in Figure 12. Fig. 12 3. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC OBSERVIG REGIONAL SYSTEM 4.1 Component elements of GRASP The Alliance must have the following basic components. - Observation Module. Communications Module. Data processing Module. Operational products generation Module. Information provision Module. Regional base Module of oceanographic data. Data Exchange Module 4.2 Observation Module 20 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Observation Module is shown in Figure 13 Fig. 13 The components of the system are: - Oceanographic buoys from the 4 countries. Dart buoys (detection of tsunamis) The network of stations 10 miles off the coast. The network of coastal stations. The network of tide recorder. Oceanographic cruises. Data collected from ARGO. Data collected from satellite and from free 4.3 Communication Module The different entities will manage their own usual systems of telemetry to capture data, making sure that they will be transmitted via internet to the database module on a weekly, two weeks and monthly basis according to the parameters. In regards to transmission expeditiousness, the institutions related to the observation system can designate a space within its servers to put the routine information, which would be automatically extracted by the database module and this information entered into the database, under the assumption 21 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 that it already passed the control of quality. The National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) will establish the respective protocols for said communication. The communication diagram is in Figure 14. Fig. 14 4.4 Data processing module The NODCs will coordinate the data processing system and will design also the routines that allow a prompt graphication and labeling. The responsibility of data processing will be rotative and the NODC in charge will be responsible for maximum systematization of compiled data and generation of products. However, there is a possibility that each NODC undertakes the responsibility for the integral process of data processing for each product. 4.5 Module of generation of operational products In addition to the products currently provided by each institution from the countries of the CPPS to the Web page of GRASP and others that are being 22 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 design for larger generation of operational products, the participation of other institutions of the region is suggested as well as the generation of more and better products oriented to general public. In Figures 15 and 16, some products generated with satellite data available at the Web are attached, they have been very useful in the region. These products could be complemented and strengthened with products at coastal level. The generation of products and its distribution would be subjected to review by the operational responsible of GRASP, a brief technical discussion until a consensus is reached and then, its immediate release via Web and regional distribution. Fig.15 23 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Fig. 16 On the other hand, it must be highlighted that the regional modeling capacity that is being developed by several institutions of the region and that can be at the service of the GRASP in a few months would enable an ocean condition forecast diagram and providing services of oceanic forecast. In order to do this, the data assimilation module is been worked out in the ocean buoys and in the 10 miles off the coast stations so that they can play a fundamental role and serve as the engine for the functioning of GRASP. 4.6 Module of information provision GRASP will have in a rotative manner a NODC responsible for the Web page and on the other hand, another institution will be in charge of managing the data base of contacts of users of GRASP which must originally be provided by each entity that is member of the Alliance. The chairman of GRASP, in coordination with the NODC in charge of the Web page, would coordinate the procedures provision and distribution via the Web of GRASP and of all the entities that are member. At the same time, universities and non-operational members of GRASP will contribute providing the information in each country and obtaining new contacts for the database. The information provision module is shown in Figure 9. 24 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 4.7 Module of the regional oceanographic database It will be undertaken in a rotative manner by a NODC and the design will be coordinated by the head of the centers of data of the entities member of the Alliance. The standards will be stipulated by the IOC/IODE. The regional database will be restricted for free exchange only among the members contributing with data in the GRASP. However, the products will be provisionfree. A suggested diagram for the regional database is shown in Figure 17. Fig. 17 4.8 Module of data exchange The NODC in charge of the data base will keep a systematic log of the access to the database and will guarantee the security thereof. The accesses to the database will be monitored and the extraction of data shall be dully approved by the NODC in charge. Exchanging data will be free among the operational entities of GRASP. 4. TRAINING AND STRENGTHENING OF CAPACITIES Taking into account the efforts made at regional level over the past decades, which are especially guided towards the assessment and understanding of the El Niño Phenomenon, a positive advance has been reached in regards to country members of the CPPS strengthening their capacities, both in 25 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 oceanography as well as in meteorology. Furthermore, the region counts with important contributions obtained through the research related to Action Plan for the Marine Environment Protection. The observation and research programs on diverse branches of oceanography and meteorology undoubtedly require a support in reference to capacities and human resources to enable a proper articulation and integration system in the region. Even though, reaching this level is not easy, it is important to recognize the advances made in strengthening the capacities and training and forming human resources that have the country members of the CPPS have. Achieving the current integration has not been easy, the forwarded activities for decades that were guided towards understanding ad assessing the El Niño Phenomenon, allowed advancing in research subjects and generated an interaction among country members. It has benefited the articulation and actions to bring into line processes in order to optimize the results. In a less integral manner, there have been advances in studies related to research conducted to evaluate the tsunami phenomenon, which has become relevant over the past few years, due to the devastating events that have taken place. It is clear that the seismic activity manifested in the zone of the Pacific Ring of Fire, with the obvious risks for the coastal population of the region and that can unchain tsunami events, it has generated an increasing interest in strengthening the capacities at local, regional and international level, with the tendency to generate an activation of efficient warning systems that communicate people in a timely manner those events with a potential risk to prevent disasters like the one occurred in Indonesia in December, 2004, which will be remembered not only for the magnitude but for the destruction that left on its path and the thousands of lived lost in such a short period of time. The affectation was incremented due to the lack of a communication mechanism to warn the coastal population. The country members of the CPPS have skilled human resources, a proper infrastructure to develop regional research projects like the Regional Study of El Niño (ERFEN), and it has advances in acquisition of equipment. However, it cannot be deny that it requires additional investment to integrate a proper observation system to optimize the observation and surveillance work that carries out in the Pacific basin, and that had to come in line for optimal understanding and interpretation of results. It is worthwhile mentioning that in training, the region has received a significant contribution from the COI/IOD via the ODINCARSA network. Some of the provided training is mentioned below: Combined Modeling and Data Management Training Workshop (Jamboree-I) DBCP Training course E-repository Training Course I ODINCARSA Data Management Training course 27 OCT 05 02 SEP 05 11 JUN 07 23 ABR 07 20 MAY 02 15 JUN 07 28 ABR 07 30 MAY 02 26 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 I ODINCARSA Marine Information Management Training course II ODINCARSA DATA MANAGEMENT Training course IODE/MarBEF Biodiversity Data Management Course JCOMM/IODE/GOOS Combined Modeling and Data Management Training Workshop (Jamboree-II) JOINT IODE/IOI TRAINING COURSE ON REMOTE SENSING & GIS MarBEF/IODE/VLIZ Training Course on Marine Biodiversity Data Management ODINCARSA Marine Information Management Training Course ODINCARSA Ocean Data Management Training Course Young Scientists Training course 29 SEP 02 04 OCT 02 13 OCT 03 17 OCT 03 19 MAR 07 23 MAR 07 06 OCT 06 14 OCT 06 18 SEP 06 23 SEP 06 06 MAR 06 11 MAR 06 09 NOV 05 19 NOV 05 21 NOV 05 26 NOV 06 04 JUN 07 09 JUN 07 Likewise, it must be highlighted that several important courses over the past years were organized by other organizations such as the OMM, el CIIFEN and the CPPS, in the South American region and specifically, in the Southeast Pacific. • • • • • • • • • • • 5.1 Training workshop in climate application in Agriculture. (WMO-CIIFEN, 2003). Training workshop in Data Rescuing (WMO-CIIFEN, 2003). International Workshop in Dynamic Modeling for the Southeast Pacific co-organized by CIIFEN-IAI-EPCOR-COI. (2004) Workshop in indexes and indicators of Climate Change (CIIFEN, 2005). Training workshop in Applications and Services of Climatic forecast and information OMM-CIIFEN, 2005. Training workshop in climatic application in health. (WMO-CIIFEN, 2005). Training workshop in Modeling Climatic Statistics-Forums of the West of South America (CIIFEN-WMO, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007). Training course of software Climate Predictability Tools, carried out at the International Research Institute, Nueva York, 2007 (CPPS-WMO) Training workshop in Statistics Modeling (CIIFEN, 2007) Training workshop in Dynamic Modeling I (CIIFEN, 2007) Training workshop Advanced Numeric Modeling for Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasting (CIIFEN, 2008) Module of training and capacitation To implement surveillance mechanisms no only requires financing, new technologies and infrastructure, but also with a trained human resource, because it depends on this the success in carrying out the programs. The scientific technical capacity of the institutions members of the GRASP is very asymmetric. Actually, there is a tendency for skilled human resources 27 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 leaving the institutions this does not mean that they are eventually replaced by new scientist or technicians. At present, the training component is critical and it must be carefully considered by many countries of the GRASP. Although, the region has training formation center of excellence, it does not necessarily means that the operational entities have that human resource. Despite the excellent formation provided a difficulty rises in regards to the little offer of postgraduate and technical programs. Even though, postgraduate studies are a limiting factor, it is evident that this problematic is associated to the difficulties presented in the region for lacking an appropriate research development. This deficiency is basically associated to the limiting availability of resources for training, same as in the research programs. It is clear that the continuity in programs or lines of research is the mechanism to allow professionals the opportunity to become experts interested in strengthening their knowledge, that with the support of established programs they can apply to postgraduate studies through scholarships, taking into account that this grants the return to research centers and, consequently, to consolidate it. The technical programs make evident the shortcomings on specialized training for technical support which is required for equipment maintenance and sometimes, in managing and proper interpreting of data. It is must be said that in all academic levels is important to emphasize model elaboration, in order to obtain a greater benefit from the information. To establish regional alliances allowing the optimization of resources through the development of joint activities such as programming courses to help meeting these needs; getting all the countries involved to align the techniques and methodologies to achieve a better articulation of management and interpretation of results. This would strength the technical and operative capacities in the region. The academic programs offered by the science faculties and that are related to oceanography ad meteorology make evident the most of them cover the formation in biologic oceanography, which at the same time requires an improvement in articulating with the other branches of the oceanography (physics, geology and chemistry), with the purpose to generate useful information to develop fishing programs, through sustainable management programs to protect the hydrobiologic resources that not only suffer from consequences from alterations caused by natural phenomena but they face the excesses related to pressure associated to overfishing and to polluters generated by several anthropic activities. Technical programs are scarce but as it was previously mentioned, they are good quality, though it requires specialized training, specifically in subjects like equipment maintenance, data capturing with state of the art technology and proper processing of information because the studies reliability depends on such activities. The formation schools of the Army in each country train both, professionals and technicians in oceanography, hydrography and meteorology which is a very 28 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 important contribution (in regards to human resources) ad compensates the shortcoming in this area of knowledge. In this formation processes personnel Exchange can be made, in order to integrate and consolidate the relationship between countries of the region, which at the same time, allows a feedback on how to address determined subjects and situations; thus, contributing to build regional capacities by exchanging experiences. This is not enough to face the scientific challenges in the region. Currently, the training programs include the use of tools such as Internet ad advanced networks like CLARA. This allows the access to information and an efficient exchange of data which is an important instrument in the articulation processes required at regional level. In table 1, the potential training centers in the region’s countries is presented. The training centers together with scientific institutions must become consolidated in the interaction they have been boosting, since it is a tremendous strength in human resource formation. This becomes evident if the academy and the research centers have a high level of knowledge and study, which are fundamental for diverse thematic and research lines, among which marine subjects are obviously included. Table 1. Training Programs in Sea Sciences offered by education programs of the country members of the CPPS. ENTITY PROGRAM Escuela Naval Almirante Padilla Colombia* Escuela Naval de Suboficiales ARC Barranquilla Universidad de Antioquia Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano Universidad del Magdalena Universidad Javerina – Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano Universidad Nacional – *Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas Benito Vives de Andrés – INVEMAR Universidad EAFIT Universidad del Valle Biology (Emphasis Marine) Universidad de Concepción Chile Servicio Hidrográfico Oceanográfico de la Armada y Universidad Católica de Valparaíso Universidad de Valparaíso Universidad Austral Universidad Católica del Norte Universidad Andrés Bello Universidad Católica de Santísima Concepción Physical Oceanography Oceanography Hydrography Physical Oceanography Ecology in coastal zones Marine Biology Fishing Engineer Coastal Integrated Management Aquaculture and Ecology Aquatic Tropical Sustainable Development – Coastal Management Emphasis Meteorology *Biology (In line with Marine Biology Research ) Earth Science – Emphasis on Marine Geology la Marine Biology Sciences – Mention in Oceanography Sciences – Mention in Fisheries Geophysics – Mention in Meteorology Hydrography and Navigation for Officers, Rank A ACADEMIC LEVEL Undergraduate Master Technical Undergraduate Undergraduate Undergraduate Master Master Specialization and Master Master and PhD Master Undergraduate, PhD Undergraduate Master and PhD Master Undergraduate Master and Undergraduate Mechanic Hydrographer and Oceanographist for Sea People Oceanography Fishing Engineer Meteorology Marine Biology Marine Biology Sea Sciences Marine Biology Specialization Science – Mention in Marine Biology Bachelor Undergraduate, Master, Undergraduate, Master, Undergraduate Undergraduate Undergraduate Master Undergraduate 29 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Universidad de Magallanes Universidad de los Lagos Universidad Arturo Prat Universidad de Chile Geofísica) (Dpto. Perú Ecuador INOCAR –Escuela de Hidrografía Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral – ESPOL Universidad Laica “Eloy Alfaro” Universidad Estatal Península de Santa Elena Universidad Nacional Federico Villareal Universidad Nacional de Tumbes Universidad Nacional José Faustino Sánchez Carrión Universidad del Callao Universidad Nacional Agraria “La Molina” Universidad Científica del sur Sea Sciences Marine Biology Marine Biology Bachelor Undergraduate Undergraduate Marine Biology Climatology and Applied Meth. Undergraduate Master Navy Sciences with mention in Hydrography Oceanography and Environment Sciences Marine Biology Fishing resources management Marine Aquaculture Fisheries Fishing Biology Navy Technologist Bachelor Specialization Master Master Technology Undergraduate Marine Biology Tecnología y Undergraduate Fishing Engineer Fishing Engineer aquaculture Fishing Engineer Undergraduate Undergraduate Undergraduate Fishing Engineer Undergraduate Fishing Engineer Fishing Management Undergraduate Master Applied Meteorology Master Marine Biology and ecobusiness Undergraduate *The universities Nacional, de Antioquia y del Magdalena upon agreement with the Universidad de Cádiz (Spain), programmed the incorporation of the Master Program and in the next few years the PhD in Sea Sciences. *INVEMAR, associated with national universities and COLCIENCIAS will also offer a PhD program in Sea Sciences. As for internship and training programs at postgraduate level, the Strategic Action Plan of the ERFEN Program (2006 – 2010) are considered in subjects related to the fields of action, same as the training in disciplines that are part of the program. These training and capacitation programs require resources obtained through cooperation (international alike entities) and from researchers exchange. The Plan of Action itself involves making a regional capacitation and/or training plan by the Scientific Secretary of the CPPS 2006-2010) that includes several subjects. Likewise, the creation of financing mechanism for research projects must be granted, so that researchers from universities and research centers get interested in exploiting the data obtained in the operational network. 30 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Table 2. Regional training and/or capacitation plan.. CAPACITATIÓN AREA OF KNOWLEDGE THEMATIC ACTIVITIES AND RESULTS SPONSORED BY Physical Oceanography, Meteorology - Oceanographic and atmospheric Database standardization - Advances in the modeling of ENOS in the Southeast Pacific To consolidate the Regional Cruises database since 1998 as of today. Publication: Report of Date since 1998 as of today of Regional Oceanographic Cruises. CPPS (3 participants per country). Other possible participant sponsor: NOAA, European Community, CNES. Biological Oceanography Biological indicators of Plankton Plankton species catalogue indicators of water masses in the East pacific for early warning of environmental changes COI, SCOR, others. Physical Oceanography Advances in the modeling of ENOS in the Southeast Pacific Capacitation and updating of modeling CPPS. Possible financing sources, other participants: COI, IRI. Course /Workshop Oceanography, Meteorology Use, development and implementation of Global and Regional Numeric Models, Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Integrated Biological Course-Practical theoretical workshop 10 days Biological Genetic Oceanography, Introduction to Genetic of Conservation and its Application Course 3 people/country 7 days Biological Genetic. Oceanography Capacitation 2/3 people/country. 3 days Biological Oceanography, Vertebrate Zoology Implementation of the Regional Plan on Marine Turtles Incorporation of assessment and conservation issues. CI, NOAA, WWF. Seminar 2 people/country. 2 days Maritime Law (Captains of the Port), Maritime Authority. International Convention on Civil Responsibility and compensation or damage produced by Hazardous and Nocive Substances Transportation (HNS) by the Sea. Provide legal tools for the country members so they can have a legislation that is liable. OMI Physical Oceanography Geophysics To carry out a Project to Establish a Regional System of Early Warning against Tsunamis in the Southeast Pacific A first meeting was held in which the current situation on tsunami event response of each country was exhibited. It is expected to strengthen the network at local, national and regional level in the medium term. Another meeting was proposed for the second half of the year2008. CPPS. Biological Oceanography Tec/Eng. Fishery, Tec/Eng. Aquaculture. II Workshop on Fishing statistics in the Country Members of the CPPS To design a plan of action to improve the capacity to generate fishing statistics, especially in Colombia and Ecuador and to strengthen the one in the other country members of the CPPS. MIZC Workshop (3 people/country) 1 week Workshop (3 people/country) 1 week Workshop (2 people/country) PESQUERIAS PROTECCION DEL MEDIO MARINO ERFEN Workshop (3 people/country) 5 days Workshop (2 people/country) 2 days Molecular Biology Applied to Marine Diversity Capacitation in global numeric models integrating the atmospheric and oceanographic information (in its different branches) Incorporation of assessment tools to the Plan of Action for Mammals Conservation in the Southeast Pacific and to the recently adopted Regional Program for the Marine Turtles Conservation. To boost molecular biology in studies of marine population with tendency to identify groups of population or species, and at the same time, providing useful information in processes of conservation of diversity. 31 FAO among CPPS CPPS. CI, Blue Concept (Concepto Azul) CPPS (Chile, Ecuador and Peru). Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 5.2 Scientific research module Taking into consideration that the ERFEN program has been developed over the past four decades and that interacts with country members of the CPPS; it is clear that the region has a structure and several programs already established through cooperation among several entities; both educative as well as scientific research organized at national level and interrelated at regional level. Since the ERFEN program represents the basis of contribution to this Alliance, not only because its history but by its valuable work, main action guidelines for the program must be taken into consideration in association with other activities and with research programs because the ENOS intense events since the 70’s have increased the interest in studying and understanding this phenomenon, which has strengthened the program technologically as well as in scientific research. In regards to the marine scientific subjects included in the environmental programs (Table 3), it is clear that the capacity strengthening (associated to the ERFEN program) provides a large amount of information to different lines of knowledge in the ocean subjects and atmospheric interaction (meteorology) by the articulation of surveillance programs (monitoring) and ocean observation, which speeds up the integration process with these programs and countries of the region. Furthermore, bearing in mind the seism that took place on August 15, 2007 at the Peruvian coast generating a tsunami warning in Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Central America countries, made evident the importance required in capacitation and strengthening the capacities to develop scientific research to establish the vulnerable zones and speed up the interaction process in the national, regional and international warning systems. This is in order to make the systems more efficient to support prevention ad evacuation plans that are required by coastal population that present the highest risk before these kind of events. 5.3 Capacity strengthening module In spite of limitations and difficulties related to low availability to resources for a proper research development, there are several strengths related regional programs that are executed in the region ad that have a long trajectory. Said trajectory confirms that all State members of the CPPS contribute through national programs in the regional observing system. This is done through the commitment undertaken by each country which means a steady input to strengthen and develop activities aimed to align and exchange information, methodologies and optimization of resources supporting processes of joint capacitation. This process allows the efficient incorporation of all state members in joint scientific research programs. This becomes evident with the articulation process that is being developed to create a Project to establish a regional tsunami warning system for the Southeast Pacific. Capacity strengthening involves several processes associated to the projects to be incorporated. (Table 4). 32 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 5.3.1 National and regional approach The national development will depend on the capacity strengthening which at the same time depends on the approach that each nation has for its self, and it has a direct implication with the regional actioning. The State members of the CPPS interact in several programs and projects, which facilitated the joint strengthening process that is required when addressing regional researches. This actioning is a key factor in the process of anchoring the alliance. Strengthening GRASP will enable the establishment of an integrated operational system for ocean observation through the joint work of nations (regional cooperation), which will bring benefits in research development, integration to carry out projects, capturing and interpreting information and resource optimization The country members of the CPPS, especially through the meetings of the program ERFEN, have emphasized the importance of boosting a regional strategy, which implies a national-regional approach in regards to participation of entities and organization in the Alliance. This becomes evident with the need to extend the observations made, strengthening the national institutions (technology and human resource) and to interact properly at regional level (in research projects as well as in the appropriate alignment in methodologies and information management). The states organization enables the improvement of the alliance process, since it counts on a previous articulation that blends in perfectly with the projections of GRASP. This optimizes the quality of observations, bringing direct benefits to the research, community, industrial sector, countries and in general, a positive regional impact. The regional system must be based on the activities and national requirements; being clear that the effort made by the region’s countries throughout the years will enable a suitable integration in the implementation of the Alliance for it has advanced in the research coordination process at national and regional level which is essential in seeking the most appropriate articulation to consolidate GRASP. 5.1.1 Equipments and maintenance A suitable observing and research process indispensably requires to count on several instrument (observation and measuring), equipment (data capture, quantification, measuring, etc.), informatics systems (information analysis) and for many programs is undoubtedly that availability of vessels could become a limiting problem, being the support for operational programs. The programs developed in the Southeast Pacific have access to several teams, which has enabled them for decades to carry out research activities. However, limitations exist and it is undeniable that requires fortifying it not only to increment capacities but to provide more accurate and extended information. 33 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Since every process requires synergy between different aspects and disciplines, the incorporation of new technologies is not an exception, because the devices must be properly operated which needs previous training, including technical support in regards to required handling and needed maintenance to guarantee the right operation, with no inconvenience in the acquired equipments. Strengthening the capacities related to equipment and maintenance requires the prompt incorporation of: Buoys, floaters or gliders in order to extend coverage and increasing the observation points. Extension of the atmospheric network on the surface as well as in height; tending to improve forecasts. To increment the capacity of the seismic and mareographic network: it must advance to have it working out and aligned in the medium term, allowing transmission in real time of warnings and information at regional level. 34 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Table 3. Research Programs coordinated by the CPPS. RESEARCH SUBJECTS PROTECTION OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT ERFEN - To establish the ocean-atmospheric conditions in an integrated manner - To establish the definition and regional rank of the intensity of the ENOS events. - To determine the influence of the interdecadal oscillations in frequency and intensity of ENOS and its impacts. -To determine an index of ENOS for the Southeast Pacific -To determine a influences of the climate change on the ENOS -To estimate the frequency and impact of ENOS within the next 50 to 100 years by generating regional climate change scenarios. -Study of the Kelvin waves trapped in the coast and its influence in coastal oceanographic processes. -Influence of jets winds originated by the continental topography in the oceanography of the region and its variation due to the ENOS. -To determine normal conditions for the Southeast Pacific of the oceanographic, atmospheric and biological component. -To study the population behavior of the biological and fishing population in function to the climate variability, with special interest in using models integrated with the environment -Study on the oscillations of high atmospheric frequency in the oceanatmosphere conditions in the region, associated to IOS -Physiochemical and biological conditions in fixed coastal stations. Research and Monitoring of Marine Pollution. Surveillance of the Marine Environmental Quality. ACTIVITIES Assessment of databases to analyze the existing information Analysis of information compiled during regional cruises carried out as of today, and the one provided by the coastal fixed stations. AREA OF KNOWLEDGMENT Physical, chemical and biological Oceanography, related to meteorology. Oceanography meteorology and Joint Regional Cruises and monitoring the fixed coastal stations Joint Regional Cruise (additional) during the first quarter of the year and establishment of at least 2 fixed stations per country Oceanography (Physical, chemical and biological) and Meteorology -Monitoring coastal zones -Joint Monitoring with the ERFEN program- on board of regional Cruises. Oceanography (chemical biological) environmental engineering. -Monitoring coastal fixed stations and vessels of international traffic to determine the presence of exogenous and pathogen microorganisms in ballast waters -Inventory of native species in the zones closet o port areas and Biologic Oceanography, Microbiology, zoology, botanic 35 and EXPECTED RESULTS O know the existing information, the quality thereof and the existing interoperability degree of the countries for exchange – access to the scientific information and publications based on this information. -Clear definition of the event, establishment of the intensity range ang scientific research publications based on this information. -Numeric models or programs of forecast of standardized oceanographic-atmospheric conditions (in each country). -Regional prediction model of the ENOS standardized -Reports of Cruises, information analysis, data updating. -Information capturing and analysis of special conditions that were registered during the first quarter of the year in the Colombian Pacific and that could extend to Peru. -Establishment of biological monitoring programs in selected areas. -Identification of biologic indicators of the plankton of early warning and third level. -Constant Information in real time of certain oceanographic and meteorological conditions, also about the condition that cannot be measured in real time, every 30 days. -Scientific research publications based on this information . -To know the current condition of the marine environment and environmental impact of the anthropogenic activities that affect them. -Have information to advise Governments on problems related to marine environment protection. -Database of polluting levels (pesticides, hydrocarbons – HAPs, metals). -Regional diagnostic on the microbiologic quality of the coastal zone waters. -Control to vessels in regards to compliance with international regulations. -Database of exogenous and pathogen microorganisms in coastal waters and in vessels of international traffic. -Implementation of the GloBallast Program. -Provide information to support the expedition of legal and political reforms in order to get the International Convention for Control and management of Ballast waters of Ships and Sediments, adopted by the Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 monitoring possible or exotic or invasive species. Conservation of endangered marine species Coast and marine biodiversity Integral Management of Marine Garbage in the Southeast Pacific -Studies on history of life, dynamic and response to environmental changes of threatened species (e.g. Red books, CITES) -Incorporation of protection programs of threatened species. -Projects of identification, estimation of populations and follow-ups to marine mammals. -Projects of recuperation of marine turtles through next protection and incorporation of baits that protect these species. -Projects tending to reduce the impact of current techniques for fisheries on species not object to their activity. -Realization of studies on identification of marine ecosystems associated to high levels of biodiversity and productivity. -Establishment of necessary limitations for utilization of highly biodiverse zones. -Monitoring reef communities. Environmental Education Biologic Oceanography, Genetic, Zoology of vertebrate, Ornithology Ecology. Biologic oceanography, forest eng, environment eng, zoology, ecology Environmental Economy, Law, Political Sciences, Geodesy. Marine Biology and Ecology 36 IMO. -Database of exotic organisms, established and invasive in zones close to port developments. -Regional diagnostic on threatened marine organisms and their population and ecological dynamic. -Regional Diagnostic on the Marine mammal situation. -Execution of the Plan of Action for the Conservation of Marine Mammals in the Southeast Pacific, which is one of the few plan of actions to protect these species. -Execution of the Regional Marine Turtle Conservation Program for in the Southeast Pacific. -Execution of the subject on marine birds to the Plan of Action -Boost the creation of capacities to conduct genetic studies of the conservation of adapted to the strategies of population management of wildlife in the respective countries. -Integrate the region researchers with perspectives of developing programs of joint research at regional scale. -Write a diagnostic document upon consulting reports. -Skilled researchers, training courses and capacitation. -Creation of protected areas – Regional Network of Coastal and Marine Protected Areas. -Update the inventory of protected marine areas. -Effective implementation of a regional network of protected marine and coastal areas, its scope, connectivity levels, among other aspects -Inventory of the flora and the fauna in areas known by its high biodiversity -Protection Program of marine Biological Diversity (Regional network of Protected Marine and Coastal Areas). -Incorporation of programs. -Strengthening and extension of program coverage of monitoring reef and mangrove ecosystems. -Implementation of the Regional Plan of Integrated Management of Coastal Zones. -Environmental zonification. -Implementation of the Regional Program on Marine Garbage -Plans of integrated management of coastal zones in the local and national scope. -Definition of administrative structures of coastal management in the regional, national and local scope. Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 COASTAL ZONE INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT -Governability of the marine and coastal zones Analysis of the actors, conflicts and political options to invest in marine and coastal territory at regional, national and local level. -Marine and coastal indicators, its methodical sheet, settlement. Margin integrated and developed sustainable coastal zones and marine zones, among them, exclusive economic zones To implement and coordinate activities of regional coordination for the environmental ordering. Topographical and hydrographic uplifting. Assessment of threat for tsunami with close origin Numeric Modeling Physical and Biological Oceanography Environmental Eng. , land register, Topography Catastral, Topografía, Hidrografía, Biología. -Environmental Margin Plan. -Determination of jurisdictional limits -Coastal and marine ecosystem maps. -Naval charts. Oceanography Física -Information related to estimated arrival time of waves to coastal population associated to genic tsunami events, whether with close or far origin. -Maps of risk and flood zones. -Maps of safe zones. Table 4. Requerimientos en cuanto a fortalecimiento de capacidades en los programas adelantados por los estados miembros de la CPPS. PROGRAM PROJECT ERFEN ENOS Warning Sytem Implementation networks system. Incorporación del programa Globallast -Beginning of the Project implementation phase (beginning 2008). -Development of associations at international, regional and national level, including the shipping and harbor industry, NGOs and intergovernmental entities. PROTECCION DEL MEDIO MARINO ACTIONS of new EXPECTED RESULTS REQUIREMENTS IN CAPACITIES COMMITMENTS Modernization of existing networks, implementation of new oceanographic and meteorological observing networks in real time. *Human resource formation: -Strengthening technical programs. Supporting formation at postgraduate level through new programs or researcher Exchange. -Training in remote sensors (interpreting the information) -Model elaboration training (use and interpretation). *Technical -Proper transfer of technology/equipments which include not only acquisition but -Commitment of the states to give continuity to the alliances. -To dedicate more resources for research projects -To strengthen links with other international organizations which support assessment and ocean observing programs. -Support management Implementation of the Project in Southeast Pacific region, since it is one of the six priority regions for said implementation. Global guidelines and tool incorporation -Trained personnel -Policy legal framework at national and institutional level. 37 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 INTEGRATEDM ANAGEMENT OF COASTYAL ZONES Tsunami early warning system Assessment of National Early Warning Systems against Tsunamis, its interconnections with International Systems. Determination of specific need to improve the national and regional systems -Implementation of transmission of data in real time (fixed stations) according the information. Implementation of satellite data. -Development of joint work to improve the early warning systems against tsunamis from close origin. -Modernization of existing networks. -Implementation and strengthening of mareographic and seismic network. -Share 2 BB stations per country (IRIS, CTBTO). -To establish communication protocols -Seismic surveillance model. -Implementation of specific surveillance system. -Canalization of resources through management of the CPPS to strengthen capacities. -Project to establish a regional system of tsunami warning for the Southeast Pacific. -Obtaining information in real time -Satellite information system for ocean and atmospheric conditions 38 training for a proper use (handling), download information, maintenance and if possible, solutions for temporary problems. * Institutions: Inter-institutional cooperation at regional and national level to establish proper networks of access to information and knowledge exchange (by human resource formation). *Scientific research: Supporting the execution of long term regional project as is the case of ERFEN, CONPACSE y GLOBALLAST (this latter is in process of countries incorporation) for strengthening regional capacities. Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Stations’ maintenance and repairing programs to guarantee optimal operation and therefore, appropriate information provision It is important to stand out that the right designation of equipment requires the projection of proper maintenance and the immediate Access to spare parts. 5.1 International and financial management module For a proper interaction process, it is necessary to count on resources that allow actioning without inconvenience of established programs. However, there are not many cooperation agreements (international entities / extra-regional states) which become evident with the specific case of the ERFEN program and in the process required for a proper operation of the tsunami issue. This limitation in agreements allowing the access to additional resources, makes that determined developed programs only count on the resources provided by each country; the need to generate international cooperation is undisputable. As aforementioned, the importance generated by the tsunami issue and the need to implement efficient warning systems in the region, aimed to strengthening the mareographic and seismologic networks for a proper communication and data provision, has made evident the support from international entities. This enables to foresee a significant international financial support. In spite of difficulties regarding external financing, programs such as the Marine Environment Protection are developed thanks to the fluent inter-institutional cooperation between the CPPS and the United Nation Environment Program (UNEP). Also, the following organizations provide support: Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),the International Maritime Organization (IMO), International Atomic Energy Organization Agency (IAEA), World Health Organization (WHO), United Nation Development Program (UNDP), United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), Economic Commissions for Latin America and the Caribbean(UNECLAC), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). Likewise, to develop this program, cooperation links are been established with the Secretaries of the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The fruitful inter-institutional cooperation sustained by the CPPS con the different international institutions fully comply with the cooperation and coordination purposes at the international and regional levels. Furthermore, the CPPS performs an important role on financing activities such as training and interaction between countries, sustaining an inter-institutional cooperation and coordination. 6 GRASP AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS 6.1 Interaction with GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System) The GRASP Alliance must be kept under the guidelines of GOOS and it must continuously report its advances, in order to highlight the efforts that are carried out by the region in the ocean observing field. 39 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Socialization workshops on the work done by the alliance and the attendance of GOOS must be held in order to sustain presence and promote projects that are carried out within the Alliance framework. 6.2 Interaction with IODE – ODINCARSA (Program International Oceanic Data and Exchange Information – Ocean Data and Information Network for the Caribbean and South America) To keep a close relationship with IODE through the ODINCARSA network will enable personnel training in the region to capture, manage and processing data in the same way until the Alliance develops its own platform to store and publish the information; its infrastructure can be taken into consideration like a possibility to cover this shortcomings. Training workshops must be held on data management in the region and standardization of information between the institutions that are part of the Alliance. 6.3 Interaction with TEMA (Training, Education and Mutual Assistance to Strengthen the Scientific Capacity) The strategy established by the IOC within TEMA must be used in building the capacities at national and regional level. It is important to manage the training, workshops and scholarships program that contribute to the objectives of the Alliance. To promote the inclusion of projects within this strategy, it must be managed with the IOC as well as to obtain benefits in the region in the ocean observing field. 6.4 Interaction with JCOMM (Joint Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology) Programs of observation in marine meteorology and oceanography field must be submitted to make the most of the experience that this committee already has in this field in order to fortify the data capturing system for the steady monitoring in the region. The Alliance must manage the acquisition of instruments and the incorporation of data obtained through the different projects within the JCOMM in the database of the region to be used by researchers within the strengthening capacity framework. 6.5 Interaction with GLOSS (Global Sea-Level Observing System) This system has a sea-level observing network that can contribute to the objective of ocean continuous observation; it is important managing a greater densification of the sea-level at regional level in function of research projects. The interaction with experts in this system will benefit the region by incrementing its capacities, both in the implementation of new technologies in using methodologies to data management as well as in maintenance of utilized equipments. 40 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 6.6 Interaction with GEOSS (Earth Observation System of Systems) As a regional component of GOOS, the interaction with this system must be direct, disclosing the projects that are being developed within the framework of the Alliance and at the same time, managing the fundraising for equipment implementation and training. Moreover, the visibility within this system must be kept in order to promote the strengthening of the institutions that are part of the Alliance. Therefore, attending the meetings is important. 6.7 Interaction with VOCALS (VAMOS Ocean-Cloud- Atmosphere-Land Study) The information collected and the one that will be collected in this study is a great contribution to the effort that the region has made for ocean continuous observation. Therefore, data capturing and the submission of scientific research projects in which scientific leaders of VOCAL interact, must be managed. 6.8 Interaction with ARGO (A Global Array of Profiling Floats Projects) This Project is one of the greatest international efforts within the ocean observing framework worldwide, the, interaction is important in order to obtain equipment to densify the observations in the region. In order to obtain a full integration in this Project, an ARGO information center for the region must be established. This will increment the management capacity of captured data. 6.9 Interaction with CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Research in the field of the ocean-atmosphere interaction is important for monitoring the processes in the ocean. The Alliance must achieve the contribution of projects within this program, to increment the observation network at regional level. Since the objectives of these programs are related to improving the numeric model accuracy, it is important to submit joint projects to strengthen the modeling capacity in the region. 6.10 Other programs Since the nature of the Alliance is constantly look for possibilities to interact with new programs related to continuous data capturing of the ocean, as well with research projects in the region. 7 PLAN OF ACTION OF GRASP (2008 - 2010) 7.1 Plan of Action (Prioritized temporary framework in which the Plan will be broken down in tasks, goals and actions; identifying the ones in charge or those interested in it) GRASP has used a great amount of time in its implementation, actually, it does not have a place yet. For that, a feasible Plan of action is proposed in 41 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 terms of resources, which brings up the generation of products in the short term, using the existing infrastructure and the member’s installed capacities. Actions to be carried out are exposed in a chronological order. They will take place during the next period which does not involve external funds. In the following table the colums corresponding to “Responsible” and “Term” will be pending until the Strategic Plan of GRASP is defined by the designed Committee together with the Alliance Presidency 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Action Responsible Agreement with other countries to CPPS-IOC-OMM share basic data and enter them into a Regional Database. Transfer of data to CNDO in charge CNDO assigned of undertaking the Database (CNDO from Chile is suggested) To design the first oceanographic Coordinates the products and protocol of data group: DHN exchange with the bid of CCCP, INVEMAR, INOCAR, DHN, IMARPE, INP, SHOA, IFOP, CIIFEN To fully enable the Web page GRASP INOCAR Depuration and quality control of CNDO assigned database Generation of first experimental CNDO responsible product of GRASP - CIIFEN Structuring the information ODINCARSA distribution network of GRASP CIIFEN Distribution of the first products and CNDOS - CIIFEN feedback of users Development of a regional CIIFEN experimental model Virtual meeting to evaluate goals Presidency GRASP Validation of regional model CCCP, INVEMAR, INOCAR, DHN, IMARPE, INP, SHOA, IFOP, CIIFEN Regional model with assimilation of CCCP, INVEMAR, operational data INOCAR, DHN, IMARPE, INP, SHOA, IFOP, CIIFEN Implementation Information System CIIFEN GRASP 7.2 Term 30 April 2008 30 June 2008 30 June 2008 30 June 2008 30 September 2008 30 October 2008 30 October 2008 30 November 2008 01 December 2008 10 December 2008 30 March 2009 30 June 2009 30 June 2009 Funding The following table, the actions of GRASP after June 2009 that will require funding: Action 1 Implementation Amount distributed 50,000 USD Date October 2009 42 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 2 oceanographic database and advanced connection networks Training workshops in oceanic 40,000 USD modeling, data assimilation and advanced networks Between January 2009 and December 2009 43 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 B. REFERENCES APÉNDIX I Glossary ARGO CIIFEN CNDO COI CPPS CLIVAR ERFEN ENOS GEOSS GLOSS GOOS GRASP ICSU A Global Array of Profiling Floats Projects Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno de el Niño (International Research Center on El Niño Phenomenon) Centro Nacional de Datos Oceanográficos (The National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC)) Comisión Oceanográfica Intergubernamental (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)) Comisión Permanente del Pacífico Sur (South Pacific Permanent Commission) Variabilidad y Predictibilidad del Clima (Climate Variability and Predictability) Estudio regional del Fenómeno El Niño (Regional Study of el Niño Phenomenon) El Niño – Oscilación Sur (Southern Oscillation of El Niño) Sistema de Sistemas de Observación de la Tierra (Earth Observation System of Systems) Sistema Global de Observación del Nivel del Mar (The Global Sea Level Observing System) Sistema Global de Observación de los Océanos (Global Ocean Observing Systems) Alianza regional para la Observación de los Océanos en el Pacifico Sur (GOOS Regional Alliance for the South Pacific) Consejo Internacional para la Ciencia (International Council for Science) IODE Programa Internacional Información del Océano de datos e Intercambio de (International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange) IPCC Panel Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre los Cambios Climáticos (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) JCOMM Comisión Mixta para la Oceanography y Meteorología Marina (Joint Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology) ODINCARSA Red de Datos e Información para el Caribe y Sur América (Ocean Data and Information network for the Caribbean and South America Region) OMM Organización Meteorológica Mundial World Meteorological Organization PNUMA Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente (the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) TEMA Entrenamiento, Educación y Asistencia Mutua para 44 Strategic Plan Proposal for GRASP, 2008 Fortalecer la Capacidad Científica (Training, Education and Mutual Assistance in Marine Science) UNESCO Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Educación, la Ciencia y la Cultura (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) VAMOS Variabilidad de los Sistemas Americanos del Monson (Variability of the American Monsoon) VOCALS VAMOS estudio del Océano-Nubes-Atmósfera-Tierra (Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study) 45