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Journal of Applied Microbiology 2003, 94, 47S–58S Migratory birds and West Nile virus J.H. Rappole1 and Z. Hubálek2 1 Smithsonian Conservation & Research Center, Front Royal, VA 22630, USA, and 2Laboratory of Medical Zoology, Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Academy of Sciences, Klášternı´ 2, CZ69142 Valtice, Czech Republic 1. 2. 3. 4. Summary, 47S Introduction, 47S West Nile Virus in the Old World, 48S Arrival and Movement of West Nile Virus in the New World: 1999–2002, 49S 5. Mode of Entry of West Nile Virus into the Western Hemisphere, 52S 6. The ‘Migrant Bird as Introductory Host’ Hypothesis, 52S 1. SUMMARY West Nile virus was first recorded in the New World during August 1999 in New York City. Aetiology of the disease in the Old World indicated birds as the likely introductory and amplifying hosts with ornithophilous mosquitoes, e.g. Culex pipiens, as the principal vectors. Speculation regarding likely agents for movement of the virus in its new environment focused on migratory birds, but evidence to date is equivocal. While spread of the disease has been fairly rapid, at a rate of roughly 70 km a month, it has not shown the kind of long-distance, leap frog movements one might expect if transient birds were the principal introductory hosts. Furthermore, movement of the disease has not been focused southward, but shows a radiating pattern with detection sites located in all directions from New York where terrestrial habitat was available. In addition, tests among potential New World, avian hosts have revealed prolonged viraemia (up to 5 days) only in the relatively nonmigratory House Sparrow (Passer domesticus). Dispersal movements by this species could account for the observed pattern of West Nile virus spread in the Western Hemisphere to date. Regardless of whether avian migration, dispersal, or some other agent is responsible, West Nile virus should reach the New World tropics in another 1–2 years, at which time a vast number of new potential introductory and amplifying avian hosts would be exposed to the disease and mosquito vectors would be available Correspondence to: John H. Rappole, 1500 Remount Road, Smithsonian Conservation & Research Center, Front Royal, VA 22630, USA (e-mail: [email protected]). ª 2003 The Society for Applied Microbiology 7. 8. 9. 10. 6.1 Factors supporting hypothesis, 53S 6.2 Factors not supporting the hypothesis, 53S Alternative Hypotheses for West Nile Movement in the New World, 53S The Future for West Nile Virus in the New World, 56S Acknowledgements, 56S References, 57S throughout most of the year, likely causing serious, longterm threats to human health and vulnerable avian populations in the region. 2. INTRODUCTION On 23 September 1999, West Nile virus was identified using polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing from materials isolated from the tissues of dead birds collected in early September 1999 at the Bronx Zoo in New York City (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 1999). This virus had first been identified from the blood of a woman from the West Nile region of Uganda in 1937 (Smithburn et al. 1940), but has since been found to be a rather common pathogen throughout much of the Old World, particularly in the African tropics, Middle East and temperate Eurasia (Karabatsos 1985; Peiris and Amerasinghe 1994). An estimated 40% of the human population of Egypt’s Nile delta was seropositive for the virus in the 1950s (Smithburn et al. 1954). Outbreaks in human populations of increasing frequency and severity in Europe, western Asia and the Middle East since 1990 indicate possible changes in its epidemiology (Gariépy et al. 2001). However, until the outbreak in New York, the occurrence of West Nile virus had never previously been documented in the Western Hemisphere. Mosquitoes of the genus Culex serve as the most common vector for West Nile virus in both the Old and New World (Hubálek and Halouzka 1999; Andreadis et al. 2001), and birds, especially those occurring in large flocks in areas frequented by these mosquitoes, e.g. wetlands and urban sites, are the most common amplifying hosts (Hubálek and 48S J . H . R A P P O L E A N D Z . H U B Á L E K Halouzka 1999). Epidemics appear to be caused by a high rate of viral infection among avian hosts, which is then passed by mosquitoes to humans (Hubálek and Halouzka 1999). Most vertebrates are susceptible to West Nile virus infection, and some, e.g. humans and horses, can suffer mortality rates of up to 10% of those clinically diagnosed with the infection (Garmendia et al. 2001). Nevertheless, there is little evidence to date to indicate that groups other than birds can serve as significant amplifying hosts. For instance, viraemia does not appear to be sufficient in humans, or indeed most vertebrates other than birds, to allow them to function as sources for transmission of the virus to other organisms by mosquito vectors or any other mode (Komar 2000). However, the virus can be passed from bird to bird in the laboratory without an obvious intermediary vector (McLean et al. 2001). The epidemiology of West Nile virus thus seems well understood, with infection originating in a large, dense population of birds, where mosquitoes serve to transfer the virus from bird to bird, and also from bird to human. Such episodes are seasonal in temperate areas, with both avian and human infection rates dropping to near zero as winter approaches and mosquitoes become dormant (Hubálek and Halouzka 1999). What has not been clear is how the virus originates at a particular site. Arboviral persistence at a site through periods of mosquito dormancy has been documented for other viruses (Reeves 1974), and new data from both the field (Miller et al. 2000) and laboratory (Nasci et al. 2001) now indicate that such vertical transmission (viral infection passed from female mosquito to offspring) could account for spring reappearance of West Nile at temperate sites like New York City where high infection rates occurred in previous years. However, this phenomenon does not explain how the virus can move from one temperate region to another, infecting birds, mosquitoes, people and other organisms at places where no previous infections were known. Based on information in the Old World literature (summarized by Hubálek and Halouzka 1999), Rappole et al. (2000) speculated that migratory birds might serve as the principal introductory hosts for the virus in the New World. In the current paper, we examine new data on movement of West Nile virus in the Western Hemisphere, use this information to examine the validity of the ‘Migrant Bird as Introductory Host’ hypothesis, and propose alternative explanations. 3. WEST NILE VIRUS IN THE OLD WORLD West Nile virus is enzootic in the African tropics, and has been for at least 70 years (Garmendia et al. 2001). However, until recently, outbreaks in Old World temperate regions appeared to be epizootic and often isolated in both space and time. For instance, human cases of West Nile viral infection have been recorded in southern France in 1962, southern Russia in 1963, Belarus in 1977, western Ukraine in 1985, Romania in 1996, Czechland in 1997 and southern Russia in 1999, as well as several other sites in southern Europe (Hubálek and Halouzka 1999). Occurrence of the virus among humans in Europe has shown other distinctive characteristics as well: (i) Outbreaks generally occur from July–September at or near wetlands or urban sites. (ii) The most common vectors are mosquitoes of the genus Culex, females of which feed mostly on birds and mammals. (iii) Birds are the primary vertebrate hosts, several species of which can produce levels of viraemia sufficient for transmission by vectors to other hosts, including humans (Hubálek 2000). These characteristics have led researchers to propose that migratory birds, infected with West Nile virus on their African wintering grounds, carry the virus northward on spring migration to stopover sites in Europe where they can serve as introductory hosts under certain conditions, i.e. at sites with numerous potential vectors (mosquitoes) and amplifying hosts (large flocks of birds – not necessarily the same species as the introductory host) (Hannoun et al. 1972; Hubálek and Halouzka 1999). This hypothesis would explain why outbreaks often occur in or near wetlands and urban areas, where introductory host, vector, amplifying host and human victim co-occur. It would provide an explanation for the ability of the virus to move from site to site, and explain the timing of outbreaks as well, with migrants carrying the virus northward in April and May during spring migration and infecting local bird populations which serve as amplifying hosts, eventually infecting large portions of the vector population within 2–3 months, and subsequently passing the virus to humans in the area by July or August. Additional support for the hypothesis is provided by the fact that individuals of many species of migratory birds have been found to be carrying West Nile virus when captured during migration (Nir et al. 1967; Watson et al. 1972; Ernek et al. 1977). Also, a few laboratory studies have been performed that document viraemia in some species of migrants of sufficient intensity and duration to allow an infected bird, in theory at least, to move the virus in infectious form from one locality to another (Work et al. 1955; Taylor et al. 1956; Fedorova and Stavskiy 1972; Chunikhin 1973; Semenov et al. 1973). The most direct evidence in support of this idea comes from a recent study in which 13 dead and dying White Storks (Ciconia ciconia) were taken from a group of ca. 1200 birds that had landed at a site (Eilat) in southern Israel 2 days previously, on 26 August 1998. Laboratory tests documented high levels of infection with West Nile virus in this sample. Presumably, these birds had contracted and transported the virus from stopover sites on their southward migration route across southeastern Europe, an idea supported by the genetic similarity of the Eilat viral ª 2003 The Society for Applied Microbiology, Journal of Applied Microbiology Symposium Supplement, 94, 47S–58S MIGRATORY BIRDS AND WEST NILE VIRUS samples with samples from Romania and Volgograd, Russia (Malkinson et al. 2002). An interesting aspect of the recent outbreaks of West Nile virus in Israel is the fact that a number of individuals of several species (White Stork, Domestic Pigeon Columba livia, Domestic Goose Anser anser, White-eyed Gull Larus leucophthalmus) sickened and died as an apparent result of viral infection (Malkinson et al. 2002). In previous Old World outbreaks, actual observations of sickness or death among avian hosts has been rare (Hubálek and Halouzka 1999; Komar 2000), leading Malkinson et al. (2002) to suggest that the infectious agent might represent a new form of West Nile virus. 4. ARRIVAL AND MOVEMENT OF WEST NILE VIRUS IN THE NEW WORLD – 19 9 9 –2 0 0 2 Significant numbers of sick and dead birds in and around the Bronx Zoo in New York City, as well as several human patients suffering from encephalitis of unknown origin from the borough of Queens in southern New York City during August 1999, were the first indication of a new epizootic incident (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 1999). The first human testing seropositive for West Nile virus in the Western Hemisphere was on 5 August 1999 while the first seropositive bird was found dead on 8 August 1999, although the pathogen responsible for either case was not positively identified until 23 September 1999 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 1999; US Department of Agriculture 2002). Ultimately, 62 human cases were laboratory-confirmed during this initial outbreak (August– October 1999), all from the New York City area, seven of whom died (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2000a). Twenty-five equine cases also were documented in the region, in addition to large numbers of infected birds (Steele et al. 2000; Garmendia et al. 2001; US Department of Agriculture 2002). The date for the last known human onset for the disease in 1999 was 22 September, while the last bird to test seropositive for West Nile virus in 1999 was found dead in New York City on 5 November. A Red-tailed Hawk, found dead in Bronxville, Westchester County, New York, 20 km north of Queens, was found on 6 February 2000. Autopsy indicated death resulting from encephalitic lesions typical of acute infection. Mid-winter is an unlikely period for a mosquito vector to cause infection, and pathologists speculated that the hawk may have eaten a bird that had died in late fall from the virus and contracted the infection orally (Garmendia et al. 2001), a mode of transmission documented experimentally in laboratory mice (Odelola and Oduye 1977) and, possibly, birds (Komar 2000). Genetic analysis demonstrated that the form of the virus responsible for the New York outbreak was virtually iden- 49S tical to that previously recorded from Israel (Lanciotti et al. 1999). Thousands of birds of as many as 18 species died during the 1999 outbreak, including an estimated 3000 American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) from the New York City area alone (Steele et al. 2000). As noted above, significant avian mortality has not been characteristic of West Nile virus outbreaks in the Old World (Hubálek and Halouzka 1999; Komar 2000). As the epidemic progressed during the late summer and fall of 1999, reports of dead birds seropositive for West Nile virus expanded outward from New York City, eventually reaching many of the counties of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut located within 250 km of the city (Fig. 1). The most northerly record came from Columbia County, New York, about 170 km north from the epicentre for the outbreak in the New York City Borough of Queens; the most easterly record was from Suffolk County, New York on Long Island about 230 km east of Queens; and the most distant record for a bird testing seropositive for West Nile virus in 1999 was an American Crow found in Baltimore, Maryland, on 14 October, roughly 300 km southwest from Queens (Fig. 1). MA NY RI CT PA NJ MD DE VA 150 km Fig. 1 Counties by state from which dead birds testing positive for West Nile virus were reported in 1999. Counties from which positive specimens have been documented are shaded grey ª 2003 The Society for Applied Microbiology, Journal of Applied Microbiology Symposium Supplement, 94, 47S–58S 50S J . H . R A P P O L E A N D Z . H U B Á L E K principal mosquito vectors and the absence of evidence of the virus in New World tropical and subtropical regions, makes it appear likely that the virus did not depend on migratory birds to survive in the New World, but rather on its mosquito vectors. After reappearing in May 2000 in the New York region, records confirmed reoccurrence of the virus in many of its previous localities documented from 1999, but also showed evidence of continued outward expansion, although not in a strictly north–south direction, as might have been expected based on a ‘Migratory Bird as Introductory Host’ scenario, but rather evenly in all directions (Fig. 2), with the majority of reports centred in the area where the 1999 epidemic occurred. The locality furthest from the original New York epicentre documented in 2000 was an American Crow found in Chatham County, North Carolina, on 27 September, about 700 km south of New York City. Assuming a New World arrival date for West Nile virus of 1 June 1999 and an infection season lasting from 15 April to 15 November in Mid-Atlantic states, the virus moved at a rate of roughly 67 km a month (June–October, 1999; 15 April–27 September 2000). The most westerly record in 2000 came from a mosquito collected in Erie County, Pennsylvania, about 570 km from the New York epicentre for the virus; the most northerly record came from an Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus) collected in August in Clinton County, New York, about 480 km north of the epicentre; the most easterly record came from birds collected in Barnstable County, Speculation regarding the future of West Nile virus in the New World was intense after the end of the 1999 infection season. The history of Old World temperate-zone epidemics of West Nile virus indicated that in order for the virus to persist in the New World, birds might have to transport the virus to the New World tropics or subtropics in autumn, introduce it to a new set of avian, amplifying hosts, and then bring the virus north from these areas in the spring (Rappole et al. 2000). Following this scenario, the virus might die out in the New World unless a suitable migrant bird host carried the virus southward and introduced it into a tropical or subtropical environment where it could establish a yearround base. Given this possibility, efforts were made in several southern states to find evidence of the virus in dead birds. Such efforts were futile. No dead birds positive for West Nile virus were reported from southern states during the winter of 1999–2000. However, the virus did reappear. On 22 May, an American Crow was found dead in Rockland County, New York, about 50 km north of the 1999 epicentre, and later confirmed seropositive for West Nile virus to be followed by many more bird, horse, mosquito and human reports (Centers for Disease control and Prevention 2000b; Bernard et al. 2001; Garmendia et al. 2001; Marfin et al. 2001). Interestingly, all reports were from the northeastern United States, and in fact, centred on the region of the original 1999 outbreak (Fig. 2). This pattern, plus information documenting the fact that the virus can survive the winter in its ME Canada VT NH MA NY CT RI MI NJ PA MD OH DE IN WV VA KY 300 km TN NC Fig. 2 Counties by state from which dead birds testing positive for West Nile virus were reported in 2000. Counties from which positive specimens have been documented are shaded grey ª 2003 The Society for Applied Microbiology, Journal of Applied Microbiology Symposium Supplement, 94, 47S–58S MIGRATORY BIRDS AND WEST NILE VIRUS Massachusetts, about 370 km east of the epicentre. No records for birds testing positive for West Nile virus were reported from Canada during 2000 despite examination of 2288 birds, 185 of which were submitted for laboratory tests, mostly from regions bordering the northeastern United States (Canadian Cooperative Wildlife Health Centre 2002). The pattern of West Nile recurrence in 2001 was similar to that seen in 2000. The first record for the year was from an American Crow found dead on 30 April in Upper Saddle River, Bergen County, New Jersey, about 40 km from the 1999 epicentre (Groves 2001). Subsequently, the majority of human, avian, equine and mosquito cases came from within 500 km of the 1999 epicentre (Fig. 3). Nevertheless, the virus continued to expand its distribution outward, reaching a maximum distance of about 2100 km from the original 1999 New York detection point with report of a horse positive for antibodies for West Nile virus in Calcasieu Fig. 3 Counties by state from which dead birds testing positive for West Nile virus were reported in 2001. Concentric circles centred on the New York City borough of Queens are shown in radius increments of 500 km 51S Parish, Louisiana in August (Arbonet 2002). Both human and avian cases were reported from the Florida Keys in August, 1900 km from New York, and a possible human case was reported from even further south on 24 August from Cayman Brac in the Caribbean, although no avian or mosquito records have been documented from that site. Records from El Dorado, Arkansas (1850 km from Queens, New York), St Louis, Missouri (1450 km), Walcott, Iowa (1430 km) and Milwaukee,Wisconsin (1200 km), all represent the western limits of expansion for 2001; while a record from Sabbatus, Maine (720 km), represents the furthest northern and eastern expansion of the virus during 2001 (Cornell University Center for the Environment 2002a). Confirmed records of infected birds also were reported from Ontario in southern Canada, marking the first time the virus has been documented outside the United States in the Western Hemisphere. In moving from its southmost point 500 km ª 2003 The Society for Applied Microbiology, Journal of Applied Microbiology Symposium Supplement, 94, 47S–58S 52S J . H . R A P P O L E A N D Z . H U B Á L E K of distribution in August 2000 (Chatham County, North Carolina) to Calcasieu Parish, Lousiana in August 2001, a distance of about 1400 km, the virus appears to have increased its rate of range expansion significantly in the New World from about 70 km a month to as much as 170 km a month, although the increased rate could be due, at least in part, to an increase in number of months of vector activity in the southern United States and/or failure to detect evidence of further southward range expansion during 2000. Data for 2002 has provided additional evidence of continued expansion of the range for the disease, with dead Blue Jays (Cyanocitta cristata) testing positive for West Nile virus antibodies reported from Houston, Texas (Brewer and Hopper 2002), 2700 km from the original 1999 outbreak in New York City. However, one significant change in the behaviour of the virus became obvious in 2002, namely that the quiescent period for vector activity, which appears to run from November to April in the northeastern states, is short or non-existent in the Gulf states. Cases of West Nile were reported from four Florida counties on 18 February 2002 (three horses, two wild birds and a sentinel chicken) (Florida Department of Health 2002). 5 . M O D E O F E N T R Y FO R W E S T N I L E VIRUS INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE Determination of how West Nile virus first crossed the Atlantic to invade the New World is entirely conjectural. Hypotheses have ranged from bioterrorism or infected mosquitoes hitch-hiking in airplanes (Preston 1999) to imported infected frogs (Zwerdling 2001). We suggested that the most likely mode of entry was the one apparently used by the virus in the Old World, namely via an avian introductory host (Rappole et al. 2000). We proposed three possible scenarios in which birds could serve as the introductory host for West Nile virus into the New World: (i) normal migration, (ii) storm-driven birds or Infected bird migrates northward in viremic state to spring stopover site with high concentrations of potential vectors and amplifying hosts, 3 serving as an introductory host at a new, temperate site. 1 2 (iii) importation. Given the levels of viraemia required to pass the virus from introductory host to vector to amplifying host, and the generally short duration of such viraemic states, we believe that importation of an infected bird is the most likely mode of entry. Also, given that the form of the virus appears to be quite similar to that found in the Middle East (Lanciotti et al. 1999), an import from that region would be the most likely culprit, perhaps for a zoo or private collection. Although such imports are required to pass lengthy quarantine periods, it would seem at least possible for them to be exposed to local, New York mosquitoes at Kennedy Airport during the period of transport from the plane to their quarantine site, at which time a vector mosquito could become infected and transfer the virus to a local avian host. In addition, it is possible that imported, West Nile virus infected birds could pass quarantine without revealing significant clinical symptoms. 6. THE ‘MIGRANT BIRD AS INTRODUCTORY HOST’ HYPOTHESIS In contrast to mode of entry to the hemisphere for the virus, there seems to be a consensus regarding how the virus has been able to move from its apparent arrival point in New York City across much of eastern North America in the 36 months since its initial appearance. Migratory birds are considered to be the most likely introductory host, presumably transporting the virus to new vectors and hosts at sites hundreds of kilometres distant from New York (US Geological Survey 1999; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2000a; University of Georgia 2001; American Museum of Natural History 2002). Old World information on this point, while mostly circumstantial and correlative, is nevertheless supportive of this hypothesis, as discussed above. Indeed, in a previous paper (Rappole et al. 2000), we speculated on how the ‘Migrant Bird as Introductory Host’ hypothesis might be expected to work in the New World (Fig. 4). Bird on southward migration is infected with West Nile virus at a stopover site in the New York area in September, 1999. Bird migrates in viremic state to subtropical wintering site, serving as introductory host to large concentrations of vectors (mosquitoes) and amplifying hosts (other birds). Fig. 4 ‘Migrant bird as introductory host’ hypothesis for movement of West Nile virus from region to region ª 2003 The Society for Applied Microbiology, Journal of Applied Microbiology Symposium Supplement, 94, 47S–58S MIGRATORY BIRDS AND WEST NILE VIRUS 6.1 Factors supporting hypothesis Two factors lend support to the hypothesis. First, the virus obviously has moved far and fast in a manner that is not inconsistent with migratory bird transport; and secondly, migratory birds have been well documented to be the most susceptible to, and commonest sufferers from, West Nile virus infection among all vertebrate groups (Table 1). 6.2 Factors not supporting hypothesis Nevertheless, there are factors that do not support the hypothesis: 1) Rate of movement – members of most migratory species fly at night. Flight speeds range from 30 to 70 km h)1 depending significantly on winds; strong tail winds can double flight speeds. When conditions are favourable, they generally depart at dusk, or shortly thereafter, and fly continuously for as much as 10 h until dawn. Thus, a single night’s flight for an average migrant might cover 200– 400 km, with considerable variation depending on species, weather and obstacles (Kerlinger 1995). For example, a Swainson’s Thrush (Catharus ustulatis), radio-tracked during migration, flew 1530 km over a 6-day period, flying an average of 7 h a night for an average nightly distance of 201 km (Cochran 1987), and other radio-tracked thrushes flew up to 450 km in a single night (Cochran et al. 1967). These speeds and distances are not unusual for the hundreds of species of migrants that pass through the New York City region. Thus, if migrants were, in fact, moving West Nile virus, it would not be unreasonable to expect the virus to move hundreds of kilometres in a matter of days. However, this is not the pattern of movement that has been observed. Instead, the virus moved a maximum of 300 km during the 3 months of known activity in 1999, and another 400 km during 7 months of known activity in 2000. This rate of travel is very slow if migratory birds are involved in transport. 2) Direction of movement – although actual direction can vary depending on winds and exact destination, migratory birds generally travel on a north–south axis, i.e. fall migrants usually travel in a southerly direction on migratory flights, while spring migrants move in a northerly direction. However, during 1999, the virus moved nearly as far north (170 km) and east (230 km) as it did southwest (300 km). Similarly, while reaching a maximum distance from Queens of 700 km southwest during 2000, it also reached distances of 480 km north, 570 km west and 370 km east. 3) Pattern of recurrence in subsequent years – if migratory birds were responsible for movement of the virus, there would be no reason to expect an outbreak of West Nile virus the following year to occur in or near the site of the original outbreak. Migrants of most bird species in the New World seldom use the same stopover sites on northward, spring 53S migration as they do on southward, fall migration because migration routes are determined by complex interactions of factors such as direction of prevailing winds, age and sex of the bird, weather patterns, location of available food resources and geographical barriers (e.g. large bodies of water or mountains). These factors seldom combine to favour the same route in different seasons (Rappole 1994). Yet the obvious pattern for recurrence of West Nile in 2000, 2001 and 2002 was for it to recur in greatest concentration at sites where it had occurred previously. This pattern suggests that the virus probably over-wintered in the vector population, and was passed subsequently to local, avian amplifying hosts, rather than being moved south and north by migrants in transit between breeding and wintering areas. 4) Host competence – the species suggested as the most likely candidate as ‘Introductory Host’ for West Nile virus (American Crow) is also the one known to suffer the highest mortality rate from the virus (Eidson et al. 2001). Obviously, crows are highly susceptible to infection, in fact apparently shedding sufficient levels of the virus in faeces to allow birdto-bird transmission orally in laboratory situations (McLean et al. 2001). Nevertheless, it remains unknown whether they are physically able to move long distances, e.g. undertaking a migratory flight of 200–300 km, once they have been infected. 5) Duration of viraemia – studies have documented that levels of West Nile viraemia in several species of New World birds (including those with migratory populations, e.g. American Crow and Common Grackle as well as species that are mostly resident, like the Blue Jay and House Sparrow) are sufficiently high (105Æ4–1012Æ6 PFU/ml) to allow them to serve as competent hosts for the virus (Komar et al. 2000; Bernard and Kramer 2001). However, duration of such high levels of viraemia has been found to be limited in time for most species tested (usually <24 h). Interestingly, the House Sparrow, a resident species, has demonstrated viraemia of sufficient duration to indicate its ability to serve as a competent host for West Nile virus (Komar et al. 2000). 7. ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES FOR WEST NILE MOVEMENT IN THE NEW WORLD The considerations listed above raise questions concerning the validity of the ‘Migrant Bird as Introductory Host’ hypothesis. Until these can be reconciled by field and laboratory studies, it would seem appropriate to consider alternative hypotheses, as measures for defence against the virus are designed based, in part, on our understanding of how it moves from one point to another. Accordingly, we suggest below alternatives for West Nile virus movement in the Western Hemisphere: 1) Sick migrant bird as introductory host – as noted above, several migrant bird species have been documented with high levels of viraemia. However, high levels of ª 2003 The Society for Applied Microbiology, Journal of Applied Microbiology Symposium Supplement, 94, 47S–58S 54S J . H . R A P P O L E A N D Z . H U B Á L E K Common name Scientific name Residency status* Double-crested Cormorant Least Bittern Great Blue Heron Green Heron Black-crowned Night-Heron Black Vulture Canada Goose Mute Swan Mallard Bald Eagle Sharp-shinned Hawk Cooper’s Hawk Broad-winged Hawk Red-tailed Hawk American Kestrel Merlin Ring-necked Pheasant Ruffed Grouse Wild Turkey Virginia Rail Sandhill Crane Killdeer Ruddy Turnstone Sanderling Laughing Gull Ring-billed Gull Herring Gull Great Black-backed Gull Black Skimmer Rock Dove Mourning Dove Great Horned Owl Snowy Owl Common Nighthawk Ruby-throated Hummingbird Belted Kingfisher Northern Flicker Eastern Phoebe Blue Jay American Magpie American Crow Fish Crow Common Raven Black-capped Chickadee Tufted Titmouse Eastern Bluebird Phalacrocorax auritus Ixobrychus exilis Ardea herodias Butorides virescens Nycticorax nycticorax Coragyps atratus Branta canadensis Cygnus olor Anas platyrhynchos Haliaeetus lecocephalus Accipiter striatus Accipiter cooperii Buteo platypterus Buteo jamaicensis Falco sparverius Falco columbarius Phasianus colchicus Bonasa umbellus Meleagris gallopavo Rallus limicola Grus canadensis Charadrius vociferus Arenaria interpres Calidris alba Larus atricilla Larus delawarensis Larus argentatus Larus marinus Rynchops niger Columba livia Zenaida macroura Bubo virginianus Nyctea scandica Chordeiles minor Archilochus colubris Ceryle alcyon Colaptes auratus Sayornis phoebe Cyanocitta cristata Pica hudsonia Corvus brachyrhynchos Corvus ossifragus Corvus corax Poecile atricapillus Baeolophus bicolor Sialia sialis Veery Hermit Thrush Wood Thrush American Robin Grey Catbird Northern Mockingbird European Starling Cedar Waxwing Catharus fuscescens Catharus guttatus Hylocichla mustelina Turdus migratorius Dumetella carolinensis Mimus polyglottos Sturnus vulgaris Bombycilla cedrorum Temperate/subtropical Subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Resident/temperate/subtropical Mostly Resident Temperate/subtropical Temperate Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Resident Resident Resident Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Resident Temperate/subtropical/tropical Resident Temperate Tropical Tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Resident Resident Resident/temperate/subtropical Resident/temperate/subtropical Resident Resident Resident Resident/temperate/subtropical Tropical Tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Resident Resident/temperate/subtropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Table 1 Residency status for New World bird species that have tested positive for West Nile virus. Taxonomy follows the American Ornithologists’ Union Check-List (1998, 2000) ª 2003 The Society for Applied Microbiology, Journal of Applied Microbiology Symposium Supplement, 94, 47S–58S MIGRATORY BIRDS AND WEST NILE VIRUS Table 1 (Contd.) 55S Common name Scientific name Residency status* Black-throated Blue Warbler Yellow-rumped Warbler Blackpoll Warbler Ovenbird Canada Warbler Song Sparrow Northern Cardinal Red-winged Blackbird Common Grackle Brown-headed Cowbird House Finch American Goldfinch House Sparrow Dendroica caerulescens Dendroica coronata Dendroica striata Seiurus aurocapillus Wilsonia canadensis Melospiza melodia Cardinalis cardinalis Agelaius phoeniceus Quiscalus quiscula Molothrus ater Carpodacus mexicanus Carduelis tristis Passer domesticus Tropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Tropical Tropical Tropical Resident/temperate/subtropical Resident Temperate/subtropical/tropical Resident/temperate/subtropical Temperate/subtropical/tropical Resident Temperate/subtropical/tropical Resident *Residency status categories: resident – a significant portion (>10%) remain on or near the breeding region throughout the annual cycle. However, even for populations that appear largely resident, some birds disperse and some young individuals may undergo short (<500 km) migratory movements in fall; temperate – a significant portion (>10%) of the breeding population migrates southward in fall to temperate regions for the winter period; subtropical – a significant portion (>10%) of the breeding population migrates southward in fall to subtropical regions for the winter period; tropical – a significant portion (>10%) of the breeding population migrates southward in fall to tropical regions for the winter period. viraemia are of short duration in most species that have been tested and accompanied or followed by illness and decreasing motor ability in many species. On the other hand, apathic, less mobile birds (e.g. American Crows) can attract more vector mosquitoes to feed on them successfully. It seems unlikely that such birds could move long distances in an infectious state, but they might be able to move 50–100 km before viraemia drops below infectious levels or they succumb to the illness. However, if sick migrants were the agents, direction of movement would more likely be along the typical north–south migration axis, which would not explain the broad lateral spread of the virus observed to date. 2) Dispersing sedentary bird as introductory host – Komar et al. (2001) state, ‘Thus, of the species we evaluated for seroprevalence, the House Sparrow was an important host because of its abundance, high seroprevalence, and biological competence.’ These factors make the House Sparrow a likely candidate as an important amplifying host for the virus, in addition to American Crows. The fact that House Sparrows can move significant distances during dispersal episodes makes them a plausible candidate as introductory host as well. Fig. 5 shows distances at which House Sparrows have been recaptured from original capture point for the 1117 birds recaptured in the United States during the past 50 years. The data show that large numbers of this supposedly sedentary species move significant distances. For instance, 193 of 755 (25Æ6%) recaptured birds banded at <1 year of age moved >15 km from their original point of capture. 600 562 560 Adult Young Unknown 500 400 300 200 202 179 133 100 56 4 7 2 2 7 3 0 0–14 km 15–45 km 46–90 km >90 km Recapture distance Fig. 5 Dispersal patterns for the House Sparrow in eastern North America based on recapture data from the US National Bird Banding Laboratory 3) Arthropods other than mosquitoes could serve as vectors – if such arthropods as ticks could serve as vectors, they could be both infected and transported by migrants, and serve to introduce the virus to distant sites. 4) Displaced mosquitoes – mosquitoes have been known to be blown tens of kilometres from sites of origin by strong prevailing winds or vehicles. Thus mosquitoes themselves could serve as introductory agents for the virus to new sites under certain circumstances. ª 2003 The Society for Applied Microbiology, Journal of Applied Microbiology Symposium Supplement, 94, 47S–58S 56S J . H . R A P P O L E A N D Z . H U B Á L E K 8. THE FUTURE FOR WEST NILE VIRUS IN THE NEW WORLD The best support for the ‘Migrant Bird as Introductory Host’ hypothesis is the fact that the virus has reached the Caribbean island of Cayman Brac, 560 km south of the Florida Keys, where a single human case was diagnosed in August 2001 unaccompanied by mosquito or avian evidence of infection elsewhere on the island (Cornell University Center for the Environment 2002b). The victim had not travelled outside the island during 2001. If migrants can serve as introductory hosts, transporting the virus across ocean and desert barriers, then it should not take long before the mainland Neotropics become enzootic for the virus. In fact, that event already should have occurred. At present, however, there is no evidence of this. Nevertheless, it should be remembered that, with the possible exception of Argentina (Cornell University Center for the Environment 2001, and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases 2000), surveillance programmes are scarce and underfunded in the region. If House Sparrows or similar ‘sedentary’ species are the principal agents moving the virus by normal dispersal, then the virus should continue at its present rate (70 km a month for 6 or 7 months a year in north temperate regions; 70 km a month for 8–12 months a year in south temperate and subtropical regions) across the United States and Canada south perhaps to the latitude of San Antonio and Corpus Christi in Texas, and the US border in the southwestern US However, it may take some months or even years longer for West Nile to invade the mainland Neotropics because of the existence of significant barriers to dispersal in the form of the Gulf of Mexico and the broad belt of arid and semi-arid habitats that separate most of the New World temperate regions from the tropics (Dinerstein et al. 1995) (Fig. 6). In fact, 25 avian species, including Blue Jay, American Crow, Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula) and Fish Crow (Corvus ossifragus), find the southernmost extreme of their ranges just north of the latitude of Corpus Christi, Texas (Rappole and Blacklock 1985, 1994). Nevertheless, dispersing House Sparrows or short-distance migrants (e.g. those cited as ‘subtropical’ migrants in Table 1) eventually will find their way across these barriers, just as they have in the past. The House Sparrow, first introduced into North America in New York City in 1851, is now found almost throughout the continent from central Canada south to southern Nicaragua (Lowther and Cink 1995). It spread from its original release point in New York to south Texas in about 35 years (Barrows 1889). Whether by natural means, e.g. House Sparrow dispersal, or artificial means, e.g. importation to zoos or other animal facilities, West Nile virus eventually will enter the mainland Neotropics, where it is very likely that it will spread rapidly throughout the region, given the year-round abundance of both competent vectors (ornithophilous mosquitoes) and avian hosts. Human populations will more likely suffer from this invasion, as will horses, and other domestic and wild mammals and birds, although the likely results of such an epidemic are unknown. The prevalence of vast, exposed garbage disposal sites where high populations of both birds and mosquitoes occur in proximity to large human populations pose a very serious threat to public health. Nevertheless, damage may be moderated among indigenous vertebrates, including humans, by the conferral of some level of immunity to West Nile virus from prior exposure to related indigenous flaviviruses, e.g. St Louis Encephalitis virus or Yellow Fever virus, and/or generations of host experience with these or other heterologous pathogens (Tesh et al. 2002). 9. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Fig. 6 Habitats of Mexico and Central America (light grey ¼ arid and semi-arid areas) (Dinerstein et al. 1995) We thank Stephen C. Guptill, Geography and Spatial Data Systems, National Mapping Division, US Geological Survey, for assistance with maps depicting US locations for birds found seropositive for West Nile virus. Ms Kathleen Klimkiewicz of the National Bird Banding Laboratory, Patuxent Environmental Research Center, US Geological Survey, provided House Sparrow banding-recapture data. 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