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Environmental Issues and Evaluation of Regional Integration and Development in the East African Community Thomas Sowinski Environmental Management Senior Spring 2014 1 Abstract Five nations in East Africa have agreed to form a strong economic and political alliance in an attempt to develop trade and commerce between themselves as well as in the global economy to attract foreign investment, spur on extensive development projects, and improve the lives of their people. Formed in 2000, the East African Community (EAC) has undertaken ambitious efforts to bring Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi under one political federation, as well as establish a Common Market and a Monetary Union. If their efforts are successful the EAC could be a resounding success and a model of stability and economic growth for other regions that wish to become more prominent in the global economy. However, there are many factors that could hinder this plan. The region has had a history of mismanagement and corruption, and large development projects are not being met with the proper infrastructure or regulations to ensure the stability and sustainability of these efforts. In addition to these challenges, there are environmental issues associated with this development that must be addressed if the EAC is going to bring stability and prosperity to the region. Unrestricted access and the polluting of Lake Victoria have put a serious strain on one of the region’s most precious resources. Development is also removing habitats, reducing biodiversity, and putting strain on the other water bodies in the region. If the EAC is going to be a success, they must consider and react accordingly to the environmental issues they are experiencing, build the proper infrastructure to meet the demands of their increasing populations, and establish reforms to address corruption. The purpose of this study is to gain a better understanding of issues associated with taking on such an ambitious plan. Through 2 statistical analysis and analysis of environmental trends, this study serves as an evaluation of the plan on its effectiveness and potential for the future. 3 Background The regions that are now the East African Community (EAC) have had a strong history of cooperation with one another. In 1917, the British Colonies Uganda and Kenya formed a Customs Union to open up their borders to trade with one another, with the former nation of Tanganyika (the mainland of what is now Tanzania) joining in 1927. Relationships between these nations developed further in 1948 with the formation of the East African High Commission, which established a uniform income tax for each nation (Nye, Jr., 1963). Once East Africa was freed from colonial rule in the 1960’s, the East African Common Service Organization (EACSO) sought to progress regional integration further, but their efforts were mostly ineffective due to the organization being perceived as being an extension of colonial rule over the region. However, there was still interest in strengthening relationships and economic cooperation in East Africa. In 1967, there was an initial attempt to form an East African Community, with Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania signing an agreement to address regional economic and social issues. This agreement only lasted for a decade, however, and it collapsed in 1977, primarily due to the program lacking direction and the nations’ leaders not being able to come to an agreement on their visions for the EAC. While there was some interest in forming an international organization, the various parties were still too concerned with their own affairs and issues to form an effective international government (Mogumba, 1978). In the 1990’s, the leaders of Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania convened in a second attempt to form an East African Community. A treaty establishing the EAC was drafted and signed in 1999 and came into effect on July 7, 2000. Rwanda and Burundi joined the 4 organization in 2007, raising membership to five nations and increasing the EAC population to about 150 million people (African Union, 2014). Today the EAC is concerned with continually strengthening economic relationships by removing restrictions on trade and commerce between each Member State. While looking to improve their intra-regional affairs, the EAC also wants to form a stable international market and establish trade and build relationships with other regions of the world. Through forming a central governing body over all five Member States and extensive development projects, the EAC is trying to attract foreign investment in an attempt to jump up to the global stage (4th Development Strategy, 2011). Corruption, political instability and mismanagement of their resources have seriously inhibited these efforts, but there is potential for the EAC to be a resounding success if it is able to stabilize the regional economy and improve the overall quality of life for its people. 5 Member States Kenya Having recently celebrated their 50th Anniversary of gaining independence in December 2013, Kenya is enjoying a period of relative prosperity. Since 1963, Kenya has been able to raise their average life expectancy by 20 years, reduce their infant mortality rates by half, and double enrollment in education and the primary and secondary level. Their GDP per capita has increased eight-fold as well, and their financial sector is now the third largest in Africa. In 2013 Kenya’s industrial and agricultural sectors grew by 6.7% and 5.6%, respectively (World Bank, 2014). Their economy is heavily reliant on agriculture (22% of their GDP) and its primary exports include petroleum products, articles of apparel, construction materials, steel, soaps, cleansers, and polishes (4th EAC Development Strategy, 2010). While there has been substantial progress since their independence in 1963, Kenya still has many issues that need to be addressed. About 40% of Kenyans still live in poverty and their maternal mortality rates are among the highest in the world. Enrollment in secondary education is still low as well, and there is a distinct lack of skilled labor as a result. In addition, their economy is vulnerable to external and domestic forces, such as international oil prices and 6 drought. Considering such a large portion of their economy is reliant on proper weather conditions for agriculture, it is hard to imagine Kenya will be able to stabilize their economy without growing other areas of their economy as well. The quality of their social services, the lack of proper infrastructure, and governance are the primary hindrances to shared prosperity in Kenya (World Bank, 2014). Uganda Uganda is poised for economic prosperity as well. They have an abundance of natural resources, such as fertile soil, reliable rainfall, and large mineral deposits of copper and cobalt. Crude oil and natural gas were recently discovered in Uganda, which has opened up the opportunity to attract foreign investment for construction of oil refineries and pipelines (World Bank, 2014). The amount of Ugandans living in poverty has been reduced to about 22%, exceeding their goal of halving the 56% poverty rate that was recorded in 1992. Outlook for 2014 is positive, considering their GDP growth has recently been driven by foreign investment, strong agricultural output, and developments in their manufacturing industries. Infrastructure projects in the transportation and energy sectors have resulted in decreases in electricity prices, spurring on private consumption and 7 investment (World Bank, 2014). Like Kenya, Uganda’s economy is also reliant on agriculture (about 50% of their GDP is from agriculture or industry related to agriculture), with its main exports being vegetables, maize, tobacco, steel, and electricity (4th Development Strategy, 2010). Considering their untapped crude oil, natural gas, and mineral deposits, Uganda has potential for strong growth and can provide resources for other areas of the EAC that are not as endowed. Tanzania Over the past decade, Tanzania has seen unprecedented growth. They have experienced substantial developments in their service and manufacturing sectors and their amount of exports has increased five-fold since 2000. These exports include gold, coffee, tea, fish, textiles, cashew nuts, and cotton. There has been a recent discovery of natural gas in Tanzania, which will give them the opportunity to further develop trade with other areas of the world. Agriculture is critical to Tanzania’s economy, providing about 25% of its GDP while also employing about 75% of their work force (World Bank, 2014). Their economy is positioned for substantial growth, but Tanzania needs to improve on their human development if this growth is to be sustained. About 28% of its citizens still live in 8 poverty. While this percentage has dropped from about 34% in 2007, the amount of people living in poverty has not been reduced (about 12 million people), and this reduction in percentage is due to population increase. Improving the socio-economic conditions for this large group of people remains a top priority for Tanzania and the EAC (World Bank, 2014). Rwanda Rwanda’s economy has been able to recover since its genocide and civil war in 1994. This landlocked nation has adopted a strategic vision in which they aim to shift from a low income agriculturally based economy to a knowledge based, serviceoriented economy. There is also potential for growing their tourism industry, as Rwanda’s mountains have unique forests and wildlife (World Bank, 2014). Their primary exports include tea, coffee, ores, hides, skins, and petroleum products (4th Development Strategy, 2011). There are still many things that Rwanda needs to do in order to attract foreign trade and investment. Outdated infrastructure and lack of access to electricity are major issues that could turn away potential investors. Also, to stabilize their economy Rwanda must reduce their dependence on foreign aid. 40% of their budget comes directly from foreign aid, and while they have been able to use it effectively on development projects, the Rwandan economy has 9 fluctuated directly with the amount of foreign investment they have received (World Bank, 2014). Burundi Burundi faces tremendous challenges in its economic and development efforts. Thirteen years of civil war has left about 80% of their population in poverty and their crumbling infrastructure and subsistence agriculture have left Burundi as one of the most undeveloped nations in the world. One of their main goals is to diversify their economy, as more than 60% of their export revenue comes from coffee (World Bank, 2014). Burundi’s lack of resources and proper development, as well as their widespread poverty forecast that they will have difficulty in the future; however there is hope that joining a coalition like the EAC will be beneficial. 10 Benchmark GDP Growth Inflation - Annual Avg. (%) Interest Rate (%) >7% <5% <10% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 Uganda 7.0 8.1 10.4 3.9 5.6 2.2 Kenya 6.3 7.0 1.5 2.6 5.6 4.4 Tanzania 6.7 7.1 7.4 6.0 7.0 6.5 Rwanda 8.6 7.7 11.5 6.1 7.5 3.9 Burundi 5.2 3.6 4.3 3.5 3.9 4.6 Uganda 7.2 6.1 12.0 13.0 4.0 7.1 Kenya 6.0 4.3 16.2 10.5 4.1 6.3 Tanzania 7.3 7.0 10.3 12.1 5.5 6.1 Rwanda 8.8 9.1 15.4 10.3 2.3 3.4 Burundi 2.7 8.3 24.5 10.5 6.5 5.9 Uganda 18.9 19.1 20.4 21.0 20.2 11.5 Kenya 13.7 13.3 14.9 14.8 13.9 8.5 Tanzania 15.7 14.7 13.6 15.1 14.7 12.0 Rwanda 15.9 16.0 16.3 15.1 17.0 7.0 Burundi 18.0 17.5 16.7 16.5 16.2 11.5 Sources: EAC 4th Development Strategy, Trading Economics Benchmark GDP Per Capita (Current US$) >$3,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 Uganda 495 508 510 589 Kenya 793 810 833 977 Tanzania 491 511 516 599 Rwanda 536 563 624 693 Burundi 213 242 275 282 Source: International Monetary Fund The tables above provide some summary statistics of each EAC nation. In their Fourth Development Strategy (2011-2016) the EAC imposed macroeconomic benchmarks for each Member State to reach. These goals include a GDP growth in excess of 7%, annual inflation below 5%, interest rates below 10%, and raising GDP per capita to US $3,000. There is no time table for each Member State to reach these benchmarks, however. If these statistics are used as an evaluation of their activities so far, there has been incremental progress, but much more still needs to be done. 11 The EAC Member States initially saw an increase in their annual GDP growth, but in 2009 the global financial crisis and a serious drought caused growth to slow. Growth rates have improved somewhat since 2009 and exceeded the 7% benchmark in previous years, but as of 2013 none of the Member States have been able to sustainably reach this goal. The financial crisis and drought in 2009 also caused inflation to rise, but it has recovered since. Rwanda has reached the goal of inflation dropping below 5% in 2013, but it is too soon to say if they will be able to maintain such low inflation. Interest rates have steadily improved since 2006 overall. There have also been improvements in each Member States’ GDP per capita, but there is still much to do if they each hope to reach US $3,000 per capita. 2014 Environmental Performance Index World Rankings Overall Ranking Child Mortality Air Quality Access to Drinking Water Access to Sanitation Wastewater Treatment Access to Electricity Kenya 140 147 121 159 152 132 156 Uganda 135 153 160 138 145 129 164 Tanzania 143 141 142 168 171 134 164 Rwanda 146 142 164 150 122 145 172 Burundi 167 167 168 141 133 145 176 Note: Each ranking is out of 178 Source: Yale University When a nation is attempting to improve their economic standings through large development projects, and investment, it is important to evaluate the quality of the environment in which they are operating and how those operations could impact the quality of their environment. The Environmental Performance Index was an evaluation system developed by Yale and Columbia Universities to quantify and rank the environmental performance of each nation’s policies. As can be seen above, none of the EAC Member States have broken into the top 100 worldwide in child mortality, air quality, access to drinking water and sanitation, wastewater treatment, or access to electricity. If the EAC has any hope in becoming a stable 12 organization that can attract investment they must improve on these numbers, which could prove to be difficult as they are taking on vast development projects. These projects include construction of power plants, hydro-electric dams, factories, processing plants, oil refineries, urban housing, and improvements in agricultural output in order to meet the demands of their increasing population. These activities will put further strain on air quality, drinking water, sanitation, and wastewater treatment, meaning additional measures must be undertaken if these projects are to be sustained in the future. 4th EAC Development Strategy (2011-2016) The EAC has created a series of development strategies since its inception in 2000 in order to focus the efforts of the EAC for the future. Their mission states they are “To widen and deepen economic, political, social, and cultural integration in order to improve the quality of the people of East Africa through increased competitiveness, value added production, enhanced trade and investment” (4th Development Strategy, 2011). In order to meet these lofty goals the EAC has four main objectives: to establish a Customs Union, a Common Market, and a Monetary Union, in order to establish amongst themselves a political federation. The timeline for establishing these institutions in the EAC have been pushed back from original estimates, but the groundwork has been laid for these plans to be fully implemented. The first goal of the EAC is to fully establish a Customs Union and a Common Market within the Member States of the EAC. Creating a new market with about 150 million people leaves many opportunities for strong economic growth, as borders are opened up to facilitate movement of goods, labor, and capital between the Member States (4th Development Strategy, 13 2011). Easing restrictions on trade will encourage more trade to take place, which will improve economic growth. Once a Customs Union and a Common Market are established, the next step will be to create a Monetary Union. This will include forming uniform fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies amongst the Member States, as well as adopting a new currency, the East African Schilling (4th Development Strategy, 2011). In 2013, the leaders of each Member State signed a plan to work to establishing the new Monetary Union within the next decade (EAC, 2013). The final and perhaps most daunting goal of the EAC’s Development Strategy is to unify each Member State under a single political federation. The EAC must create an international government essentially from nothing and establish its authority over the region. They have to create institutions, regulations, agencies, positions of leadership, and a legal system as well as create a legal framework for them to be able to properly govern the EAC. These efforts will include adopting and implementing regional policies on issues such as corruption, ethics, and integrity, as well as creating an EAC Common Foreign Policy (4th Development Strategy, 2011). Another goal of the Development Strategy is to develop regional infrastructure. To streamline intra- and inter-national trade the EAC is taking on large road-building projects while also creating efficient and reliable railway and air transportation networks. To further develop trade by sea, the EAC is expanding and upgrading their ports in Kenya and Tanzania to facilitate the needs of larger vessels, and enhance their capacity of ship building and repair yards (4th Development Strategy, 2011). They must make these upgrades if they are expected to meet the infrastructural needs of their trade partners. 14 Potential for Success A history of corruption and mismanagement has left the EAC poised for unprecedented economic growth. Largely untapped resources, opportunities to develop the region’s various industries, and other strategic advantages will help the EAC attract foreign investment and improve their people’s quality of life. One of the most important strengths of the EAC is its relatively central location. The region’s advantageous location in sub-Saharan Africa will attract business from other regions of the world. Currently the primary hub for business and trade on the continent is Johannesburg, South Africa, but with the proper developments to their ports and railway system the EAC could create a second hub that would give the EAC a significant competitive advantage over Johannesburg. The port cities of Mombasa, Mtwara, Dar es Salaam, and Tanga are much closer to other areas of the world. Shipping routes around the Horn of Africa and through the Suez Canal would open up trade to the entire Mediterranean region, and being closer to the Middle East, India, and Southeastern Asia than Johannesburg makes the EAC an attractive trading partner. Their beneficial location also provides the proper climate for agricultural activity to take place. Forming the necessary regulations regarding resource management, expanding their irrigation potential, and adopting the appropriate technological advances will help them take advantage of their climate to increase their large-scale agricultural production. The presence of valuable resources that have largely been untapped is the region’s best opportunity to develop global trade. The recent discovery of crude oil and natural gas in Uganda and Tanzania makes the region very attractive to foreign investment and trade. In 15 February 2014 Uganda signed an agreement worth about US $8 billion with the China National Offshore Oil Company, France's Total and Ireland's Tullow to build an oil refinery, an export pipeline to Kenya’s coast and an oil-powered electrical plant. China has invested further in the EAC, building two massive railways, a route going through Dar es Salaam, Isaka, and Kigali, and a route through Mombasa, Nairobi, and Kigali which are set to be completed by 2020 (Kantai, 2014). The EAC’s natural resources, through proper management, have the potential to completely reshape the region if they continue attracting foreign investment. Another advantage of the EAC is the potential, with proper management, to develop the region’s tourism industry. The region has a vast range of ecosystems with unique flora and fauna. The varying climate in East Africa allows for savannah plains in Tanzania and Kenya, and forests in Western Kenya and Uganda. The EAC plans to advertise themselves as a single tourism destination (4th Development Strategy, 2011). Before the EAC, it would have been more difficult for a tourist to travel to each country to explore. Opening up the borders between the Member States would encourage tourists to travel throughout the region, to help spread the business and money that enters the EAC. Challenges to Success The EAC’s efforts to encourage economic growth, foreign investment, and development are admirable, and the potential to completely reshape the region for the better exists. However, there are many issues that could stand in the way and hinder their growth. Challenges to their efforts include corruption, unequal distribution of wealth and resources, 16 crumbling infrastructure, lagging education of public health systems, and regional stability and security. Corruption stands as the biggest threat to the EAC. Even if regional integration and development are successful, corrupt officials could prevent the benefits of these activities from reaching the people. The perspective that sub-Saharan Africa has a history of mismanagement and corruption will make potential investors wary of conducting business with the region. Kenya Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), 2013 27 CPI World Ranking (Out of 177) 136 Source: Transparency International, 2014 Uganda 26 140 Tanzania Rwanda 33 111 53 49 Burundi 21 157 As the table above shows, the Member States of the EAC rank poorly overall in terms of corruption. The Corruption Perceptions Index ranks each nation on a scale of zero to one hundred. Nations with scores closer to zero are considered to be more corrupt, while scores closer to one hundred mean nations are less corrupt. Rwanda is the least corrupt nation in the EAC, being the only Member State to be ranked in the top one hundred globally. Corruption is a serious issue in the region, and must be stamped out if the EAC is to reach its full potential. Another serious challenge to the EAC’s success is the unequal distribution of resources and wealth. Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda have the bulk of the resources that the region has to offer, meaning these Member States will be receiving most of the capital gains and investment. Rwanda and Burundi have a distinct lack of resources and poor infrastructure, meaning it will be much more difficult for them to attract foreign investment. Corruption will amplify this 17 issue further, with the potential for most of the capital gains to go to people in positions of power, rather than to the average citizen. The region’s idle education and public health systems are further hindrances to the success of the EAC. In order for the region to become a world player, large steps must be taken to educate their people and keep them healthy. The Member States have a distinct lack of skilled labor, and considering many of the projects they wish to undertake involve technological advancement, it is vital that the region educates its people to join the 21st Century economy. Improving the quality of their water supplies, sanitation, nutrition, and health services such as proper education and HIV/AIDS treatment will do wonders. Improving the overall standing of their people will be one of the strongest ways to ensure the success of the EAC. Proper health services and education will help keep their population growth in check, stabilize communities, and will create an environment conducive to further investment and development. Yet another threat to the EAC is public resistance. Poorer, less-educated people of the region could view this new international government as overreaching and could consider this as a threat to their way of life (Leach et al, 1999). Many of the EAC’s citizens are primarily concerned with the survival of themselves and their family, and government actions or regulations that impose rules on them and would meet resistance. For example, new regulations have been put in place to improve the monitoring and enforcement of regulations on fishing activity in Lake Victoria (4th Development Strategy, 2011). A fisherman has been using illegal fishing gear to provide for himself and his family because previous regulations on fishing gear have not been enforced. However, due to the new regulations, the fisherman would be required to buy completely new fishing gear that is legal to use. If he cannot afford to 18 make these technological advances, then he would not be allowed to fish on Lake Victoria. While improved standards and regulations improve living conditions overall, they can be viewed as a threat to the living conditions they already have. Through proper education, the EAC hopes to help the public realize that what they are doing is helping them improve their lives. Issues with Development The issues discussed above pose serious challenges for the EAC to overcome if they are to be successful. However, there are even further challenges to the success of their plans, primarily in terms of environmental impact. Increasing urban populations, climate change, and developments such as road building and dam construction will put further strain on the EAC’s environment and public health and the impact of these actions must be evaluated if the EAC is going to be sustained. Urbanization The human population overall is becoming more urbanized. Only about 5% of the world population lived in urban areas 200 years ago; today about 50% of the world population lives in cities. Africa is currently the least urbanized region in the world, but it is also the most rapidly urbanizing area. Issues such as overcrowding, unsanitary conditions, unsafe drinking water, vector-borne diseases, dangerous roads, polluted air, and exposure to harmful compounds have plagued urban centers throughout history. Most developed areas in the world have been able to take corrective measures to improve urban life, but this is not so much the case in East 19 Africa. Large cities in low-income areas have had a history of environmental blight, inadequate housing, poverty and disease, and these problems can be exacerbated by globalization. With increased globalization, the focus is outward to new areas to build relationships with, rather than looking inward towards their own people’s needs. Social change is difficult as the poorer, uneducated population essentially have no voice or power to make any meaningful changes in their lives (McMichael, 2000). Industrialization associated with urbanization will create further issues. Under their plan, the EAC will build upon their manufacturing sector, primarily in the market of “low-end” products (McMichael, 2000). New factories will employ many people who were previously unemployed, but will not provide more advancement than that. Without a proper education, these people will remain factory workers. This will not improve the lives of the average citizens in the long-run, and will serve to widen social stratification, as any gains will go primarily to the owners of the factories, rather than to the employees. The people may be employed, but will still be in a state of perpetual poverty. Increased urbanization will increase the amount of power plants, oil refineries, factories, and automobiles, which will all contribute to the area’s already poor air quality. The deforestation that occurs as a result of urbanization will also reduce water quality, as more sediment will enter drinking supplies (Folke et al, 2002). These developments must be met with the proper regulations and technology to mitigate the environmental impacts and must improve on the poor environmental conditions that are already present. Dam Construction 20 Further infrastructure developments such as the construction of dams will have unintended impacts. Kenya is currently undergoing efforts to build hydroelectric dams along their rivers to meet demand for electricity and water from their increasing population. While being able to provide reliable electricity and safe drinking water is essential for a 21st Century economy, the construction of dams can be severely damage ecosystems associated with the river and can affect economic activities that are reliant on the river system. The reservoirs that form as a result of building a dam destroy upstream habitats and change the entire flow regime of the river, which results in ecological degradation and loss of biological diversity. Perhaps the most ecologically and economically damaging impact of dam construction is the loss of benefits from seasonal flooding. Seasonal flooding facilitates the exchange of materials, nutrients, and organisms among different habitats throughout the system. This exchange determines the level of biological productivity and diversity. Dams trap sediment and nutrients in reservoirs and prevent them from going downstream. They also act as a barrier to organisms that move throughout the river system. Activities such as flood recession agriculture, livestock management, and fishery production are reliant on this cycle of seasonal flooding and exchange of materials, and changing the amount of flow and seasonal timing of flows can hinder these economically crucial activities (Maingi and Marsh, 2002). Road Building While building a network of reliable roads is essential for any nation, it can also have some unintended consequences. Part of the EAC’s plan is to build a system of roads for the public to use, as well as to facilitate trade and to support a growing logging industry, primarily 21 in Tanzania. Transportation is one of the largest costs in the logging industry, and having a strong network of roads is vital for the business to be profitable. New roads will open up areas that were previously isolated from human activities for further agricultural development (Wilkie et al, 2000). Despite an area’s road density being closely linked with market accessibility and economic growth, it is also associated with deforestation, erosion, habitat fragmentation, and the disappearance of wild land and wildlife. In order to develop new agricultural areas and a logging industry, many trees will need to be cut down in order to make new fields for cultivation and to build roads to areas for logging. The loss of trees will result in increased erosion of the soil and will isolate and disrupt habitats, resulting in a loss of biodiversity in the area. This is vital for the EAC to consider as they are trying to develop a tourism industry based on their unique animal and plant species. The presence of new roads will also facilitate illegal activities such as squatting, unauthorized farming, and poaching (Wilkie, 2000). These roadbuilding efforts must be met with sound environmental assessment and planning in order to minimize these undesirable environmental impacts. Climate Change Understanding the EAC’s influence on climate change will be paramount for their federation to be sustained. The climate in the region is currently conducive to high agricultural output, but the unpredictability of climate change could disrupt these activities. For example, the drought the region experienced in 2009 helped cause Uganda’s annual GDP to drop by more than 60% in one year (4th Development Strategy, 2011). Considering the importance of 22 agriculture in the EAC’s economy and the amount of subsistence agriculture that takes place, changing environmental conditions could prove to be disastrous. Lake Victoria Lake Victoria would be described as an international water body. The lake’s shoreline is divided amongst Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya, who each possess 43%, 51%, and 6% of its shoreline, respectively. Named after Queen Victoria during a British expedition to discover the source of the Nile River in 1858, it is the largest lake in Africa and the second largest lake in the world by surface area (World Atlas, 2014). The lake directly supports a population of about 30 million people, and this population is expected to double in the next 20 years. It is primarily used for drinking water, recreation, tourism, transportation, waste disposal, and as a fishery. Over the past 40 years the increasing population and increased economic activity in the area has created numerous environmental issues that must be addressed by the EAC if they hope to continue benefitting from the lake. Unsustainable fisheries, developments in agro-industry, deforestation and untreated waste threaten to disrupt the system to a point where Lake Victoria cannot be used. The transboundary nature of Lake Victoria has made previous efforts to regulate activities in and around 23 the lake difficult, but through forming the EAC they hope to be able to successfully regulate the lake under one governing body (Odada et al, 2004). Unsustainable fisheries Due to lax monitoring and enforcement of legislation, fishermen have been allowed unrestricted access to Lake Victoria. The growing export market and the recent establishment of fish processing factories have increased the demand for fish. As a result, the amount of fisherman and boats on Lake Victoria doubled from 1994 to 2004, and the amount of fish caught was reduced by half. Illegal fishing practices, such has using nets with smaller mesh size, cast nets, fish poisons, and weirs have greatly increased fishing efficiency on the lake. This increased efficiency has increased the amount of immature fish that are caught, which will not be allowed to grow to their mature stage and support the next generation (Odada et al, 2004). Alien species introduction to Lake Victoria has completely altered the ecosystems and biodiversity of the lake, but have stimulated the growth of the region’s fishing industry. The three primary commercial fish species are Nile Perch (Lates niloticus), Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), and Silver Cyprinid (Rastrineobola argentea). The Silver Cyprinid is the only native fish species that is still used as a fishery fish (Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization, 2014). Before the introduction of Nile Perch and Nile Tilapia in the 1950’s, Lake Victoria contained more than 500 endemic fish species, primarily native cichlids. Once introduced, the Nile Perch consumed the cichlids at an alarming rate, and the Nile Tilapia began hybridizing with the native species. This species introduction has driven several hundred cichlid species to near or total extinction. 24 Odada et al (2004) described this as “single most dramatic event of vertebrate species extinction attributable to specific human activities.” However, despite this destruction of native ecosystems, this action has been economically beneficial for the region. The increased demand for fish has resulted in increased fishing efforts, efficiency, processing, and trade. In the 1990’s, the exportation of Nile Perch from Lake Victoria reached about US $300 million annually. Sport fishing as a result of species introduction has created further opportunity to develop tourism as well. While the introduction of Nile Perch and Nile Tilapia has been disastrous for native species, Lake Victoria’s aquatic ecosystems have been described as moving towards a new equilibrium (Ben-Yami, 1996). The introduction of fish species has been economically beneficial for the region in the short-term, but unsustainable fishing practices will put strain on Nile Perch and Tilapia populations, and the fishing industry will suffer as a result. The lack of enforcement of regulations that are already in place has allowed fisherman to catch as many fish as they are able with no restrictions. In order to make fishing activities sustainable, the EAC must establish its authority over the lake and form proper regulations, such as fishing quotas, and enforce them. The EAC must also educate the fishermen about their unsustainable fishing practices and how they can still make a living while following these regulations. They are mainly concerned with being able to provide for themselves and their families, and for many that means catching as many fish as they can to sell. They do not realize that what they are doing is unsustainable. The fishermen could understandably view the EAC’s restrictions on fishing as overreaching and as threats to their livelihoods. Many fishermen use illegal gear, and many would not be able to 25 afford completely new legal gear. With improved enforcement of regulations, these fishermen would not be allowed to fish on Lake Victoria, essentially taking their livelihood away from them (Odada et al, 2004). The EAC must enact policies that ensure fishing activities are sustainable for the future, while also educating the fishermen about the dwindling fish populations and providing incentives to promote compliance. The EAC has created the Lake Victoria Development Program in order to establish regulatory authority over Lake Victoria. This program has established agencies such as the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources in Kenya, the Ministry of Water and Livestock Development in Tanzania, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Uganda. These agencies will be primarily concerned with environmental and natural resource management, with an emphasis on updating legislation, improving enforcement, educating stakeholders of the lake, and grounding their decisions in scientific fact (Odada et al, 2004). There are many policy options the EAC could adopt in order to make fishing in Lake Victoria sustainable. Imposing fishing quotas and size restrictions will help stabilize the fish populations by reducing the amount of immature fish caught. Allowing fish to grow to reproduction age will stabilize the fish’s age distribution, meaning there will be fewer fluctuations in the amount of fish caught and will help stabilize the supply for sustainable use in the future. Imposing processing quotas will also reduce the amount of fish caught and will help the EAC control the amount of fish entering domestic and international markets. Providing fishermen with credit to purchase legal fishing gear would help encourage them to comply with these regulations. Considering their illegal gear will be taken away, it will help prevent fishermen from losing their livelihood while also serving to facilitate a transition to fishing 26 activity that is approved by the EAC. However, without proper enforcement, regulations are meaningless. The international nature of the lake has hindered previous efforts, as varying regulations and standards reduced each nation’s regulatory power. Creating a single set of regulations and standards under one international government will help focus efforts to improve the lake’s fishing industry. Pollution Lake Victoria’s water quality has diminished severely due to unrestricted activities in its watershed. There are no sewers in rural areas around the lake, and as a result untreated sewage and runoff enters the lake via its tributaries. Increased agricultural activity, deforestation, and industries such as paper production, beer brewing, tanning, fish processing, and abattoirs have increased the amount of sediment, pesticides, and waste byproducts that are entering Lake Victoria (Odada et al, 2004). Considering the lake is a source of drinking water for about 30 million people, the unrestricted flow of human waste, sediment, and byproducts of industrial activity pose serious health issues. The amount of runoff, sediment, fertilizer, and pesticides increases during flooding season, as agriculture in the region is based on the seasonal flooding of the rivers. The activities associated with agricultural activity such as pesticide application, fertilization, and soil cultivation will cause increased amounts of sediment, pesticides, and nutrients to be carried by flooding rivers to Lake Victoria. The transition from small-scale to large-scale agriculture in the watershed has further exacerbated this issue. This drop in water quality has resulted in numerous health issues. For example, in 1997 Kenya experienced an outbreak of cholera. 27 Transmission of cholera mainly occurs due to the presence of fecal matter in the drinking water supply. About 14,275 people were diagnosed with cholera and 547 deaths were reported as a result or poor water quality (Odada et al, 2004). The increased amount of sediment and nutrients, primarily Nitrogen and Phosphorus, accelerates the lake’s natural process of eutrophication. The influx and accumulation of excessive levels of nutrients in aquatic systems reduces visibility in the water and promotes plant and algae growth. Increased algae levels result in algal blooms, and when they die dissolved oxygen levels drop drastically as it decomposes. The reduced visibility makes it more difficult for aquatic species that rely on sight to find food, but, more importantly, reduced levels of dissolved oxygen make it difficult for most aquatic species to survive (Bartram et al, 1999). If sedimentation and nutrient loading is allowed to go unchecked, algal blooms will reach a point where Lake Victoria cannot be a drinking water supply and its economically vital fish will not be able to survive. Human activity in Lake Victoria’s watershed has put their drinking water and fish stock at serious risk. Agricultural and industrial developments have not been met with the proper infrastructure developments, and the obsolete technology that is already in place cannot meet the demand of an increasing population. Due to a lack of enforcement, these industries have not been held accountable for what they have been releasing into the watershed. The lack of awareness and education regarding the effects of their activities has also prevented meaningful change. Like the fishermen on Lake Victoria, farmers and factory workers are concerned with being able to maximize production in order to provide for themselves and their families and do not realize that their actions are causing an impact on the environment (Odada et al, 2004). 28 Balancing economic growth with environmental quality is an issue every industrialized nation has had to address. Strong economic growth will provide income, but if the environment is sacrificed as a result they will experience serious public health issues if the proper regulations are not in place or enforced. Also, considering the area’s economy is reliant on the fishing industry and agriculture, a deteriorating environment will have undesirable effects on their economic activities. If the EAC forms the proper policies, they will be able to improve Lake Victoria’s water quality and public health with minimal reductions on agricultural and industrial activities in the watershed. Accrediting national water quality laboratories would facilitate the enforcement of drinking water standards. Effectively enforcing regulations grounded in science will improve public health and reduce health costs. Under the EAC, programs to establish national analytical laboratories are already underway. To improve on sewage treatment and infrastructure, the EAC could involve the private sector. Private environmental and sanitation companies have proven to be profitable in Dar es Salaam, for example, and providing an essential service to about 30 million people would be a lucrative business venture that could attract investment (Odada et al, 2004). Considering the amount of other issues the EAC need to address, allowing a private company to help improve on public health and sanitation would allow them to focus their efforts and resources elsewhere. Perhaps one of the most effective ways to improve public health, resource management, and farming practices is through education and awareness. Helping the agricultural and processing industries understand how their actions have undesired consequences and how to mitigate them would reduce the amount of contaminants from their source. Proper farming practices and resource management would 29 reduce the amount of agricultural runoff while also increasing yield and ensuring that their activities are sustainable for the future. Recommendations If governed properly, the East African Community has the potential to be a resounding success. Its central location, abundant resources, and strong agricultural output leave the EAC posed for unprecedented growth. East Africa would serve as a model for other developing regions that wish to stabilize their economies, improve public health, and attract foreign investment and business. However, corruption, poor resource management, poor public health and education, and environmental impacts of development threaten the resources and opportunities they have. The EAC must form meaningful policies to address these issues, but must also be met with the proper enforcement efforts if they are to be successful. Perhaps one of the most important things for the EAC is to focus on is improving their people’s lives before trying to join the international community. The EAC has lofty goals of joining the world market and making the proper developments to increase their exports and attract foreign investment, and while they say in their Development Strategy that they will conduct efforts to improve public health and environmental quality, the strategy has a much bigger focus on integration and development. These actions, if not met with the proper counter-measures, will further exacerbate their public health and environmental issues and will not provide the benefits they are hoping for in the long-term. Foreign investment and large development projects are not enough to join the developed world; they must improve the state of their people to the standards of the developed world if they hope to successfully join it. 30 Sound resource management is also vital for the survivorship of the EAC. 40 years of mismanagement and lax enforcement have been severely detrimental to the environment, and many economically crucial activities are at risk. Forming policies to regulate agricultural activity will ensure it is sustainable and will not cause sediment and agro-chemicals from entering their water supplies. Proper policies addressing environmental issues in Lake Victoria will improve their drinking water supply and stabilize their fish stock, which will then serve to improve public health around the lake. Underlying all of the challenges the EAC faces is the threat of corruption. Forming sound policy, building new infrastructure, and attracting investment are meaningless for the welfare of the EAC if the benefits are not reaching the people. By further stratifying the public, corruption will undo everything that the EAC is trying to accomplish. The EAC is forming policies that are meant to stamp out corruption in the government, but if corrupt officials are the ones forming the anti-corruption policies then the policies will be useless. Forming strong policy, establishing accountability and a system of checks and balances will prevent officials from gaining too much power and will ensure the preservation of the EAC. 31 Work Cited Adger, Neil, Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, D., & Hulme, M. 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