* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download gcos regional action plan for central asia
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
GCOS REGIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR CENTRAL ASIA November 2004 FOREWORD Implementing the Regional Action Plan The intent of this GCOS Action Plan for Central Asia is to ensure that GCOS requirements for observational data are met in Central Asia by achieving improvements in climate system observing networks and related data management, including data exchange, historical data rescue and archiving, and access systems. Enhanced monitoring of climate system parameters, improved data management and easy access to observational data will facilitate climate change detection, climate impact assessments, planning for adaptation to climate and its extremes and the development and validation of climate models. It will, in addition, support many socio-economic and environmental applications in fields such as land use planning, industry development, water resources management, agriculture, forestry, and others. Progressive implementation of the initiatives proposed in the Plan will, therefore, not only yield substantial benefits to GCOS and the global community but will also yield benefits at regional, national, and local levels. In consequence, the Action Plan presents a solid case for investment in improving the region’s capacity to develop and maintain systematic, long-term, climate observations and to establish effective climate data management, exchange, and access systems. The implementation of the Action Plan will, however, require long-term commitments by the nations of Central Asia, reinforced by technical and financial assistance from external donors. The countries of Central Asia are at different stages of development. Previous efforts to improve meteorological, hydrological, oceanographic, and other climate components of observing, data management, and prediction systems within individual countries have been funded both domestically and through bilateral or multilateral aid. It is hoped that the regional framework provided by this Action Plan will encourage additional domestic and external initiatives by presenting a regionally-based prioritization of needs and by proposing realistic and effective actions to address these deficiencies. The regional approach inherent in the Action Plan also encourages, even necessitates, enhanced coordination and cooperation between individual nations and institutions in the region, including improved communication of information and products to final users. Continued pursuit of regional approaches in areas such as in-situ observing network operation and maintenance, application of satellite remote sensing, telecommunications, data management, and capacity building has the potential to yield significant benefits in terms of cost savings and efficiencies both for individual countries and for the region as a whole. i TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword..............................................................................................................................i Executive Summary...........................................................................................................1 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................3 1.1 The Regional Context ............................................................................................4 1.2 The Purpose of the Plan ........................................................................................5 1.3 The Structure of the Plan ......................................................................................6 2. THE CURRENT STATUS OF OBSERVATIONAL SYSTEMS IN THE REGION ...................................................................................................................7 2.1 The Atmosphere......................................................................................................7 2.2 The Oceans............................................................................................................12 2.3 The Terrestrial System ..........................................................................................13 2.4 Other Networks and Systems...............................................................................16 3 REGIONAL COORDINATION AND ORGANIZATION ...........................................17 3.1 Overall Assessment...............................................................................................17 3.2 Recommendations.................................................................................................18 4. SPECIFIC PROJECTS TO ADDRESS ISSUES AND REQUIREMENTS...............18 5. CONCLUDING REMARKS .....................................................................................62 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................62 Appendix A GCOS Monitoring Principles............................................................63 Appendix B GSN and GUAN Stations in Central Asia .........................................65 ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Preparing for and adapting to climate change, climatic variability and extremes of climate is critical to the pursuit of sustainable development, poverty reduction, and protection of life and property in Central Asia. The countries of this region are now striving for sustainable development of their resources. This striving is generating increasing needs for observational data on all components of the climate system. Such data are needed to assist governments and industries to assess their vulnerability to climate change and to take mitigating or adaptive measures, such as improved agricultural planning and optimization of water supply systems. Strengthening observations in the region will, as a consequence, assist countries in meeting their respective social, economic, and environmental needs while also contributing to addressing global concerns. Analysis of the current status of climate observing networks in Central Asia has shown that there are gaps and deficiencies in the operation of the GCOS Surface and Upper-Air Networks, as well as deficiencies at mountain stations and needs for further development of the GAW network. Requirements to improve climate data collection, quality assurance, data exchange, and data management and archiving were identified. There are also needs to optimize the network of hydrological stations in Central Asia, to restore hydrological posts on major rivers, and to rehabilitate the existing hydrological network at large lakes. The countries of Central Asia also need to improve monitoring of the alpine zone glaciosphere, year-round glacier observations at some of the existing stations and permafrost observations. It is recognised that many GCOS requirements can only be met in a practical and cost-effective manner by the use of space-based observations and the application of satellite products. The overall objective of this Regional GCOS Action Plan for Central Asia is to contribute to national, regional, and global sustainable development, to poverty reduction, and to other climate-sensitive priorities. It proposes to do this by taking effective action to ensure that climate observing systems and related infrastructure in the region are adequate to address the challenges associated with predicting, planning for, mitigating, and adapting to climate variability, climate change, and extreme climatic events and their impacts. Therefore, this Action Plan establishes a framework for improving systematic monitoring of the climate system in Central Asia within the context of GCOS and the national commitments to the UNFCCC and with respect to regional and national priorities. More specifically, the Action Plan: • Identifies GCOS and related requirements for systematic observations of the climate system from Central Asia; • Outlines a strategy for subsequent implementation actions to rectify identified gaps and deficiencies in existing networks and programs; • Contributes to meeting national requirements for systematic climate observations to support national planning for adaptation to climate change and sustainable development; • Enhances coordination and synergy between observations, data management, and data exchange and access programs and initiatives, both within and external to the region. 1 In view of the above, the Plan proposes eight high priority projects, as follows: Project No 1. Improving of the GCOS Surface and Upper-Air Networks in Central Asia. Project No 2. Meteorological observational data rescue and historical data collection for GCOS stations. Project No 3. Strengthening the GAW network in Central Asia by increasing measurements of aerosol optical depth and precipitation chemistry. Project No 4. Improving the hydrological network on major rivers in Central Asia, which includes four subprojects: - Rehabilitation and operation of high-mountain stations in the Aral Sea Basin; - Rehabilitation and operation of lowland hydrological stations; - Hydrological data rescue for Central Asia, and; - Establishment of public relations unit. Project No 5. Adaptation of hydrological observations of very large lakes in Central Asia to the assessment of climate change. Project No 6. Glaciosphere monitoring in Central Asia. Project No 7. Permafrost and ground ice as potential sources of groundwater in the arid regions of Central Asia. Project No 8. Improving the application of satellite data for climate in Central Asia. In addition the Action Plan contains recommendations that stress the importance of improving coordination at national and regional levels through establishment of a network of focal points for the RBCN (especially for the GSN and GUAN networks) and of a network of sub-regional coordinators in four sub-regions (namely the Russian Federation, China, Middle Asia and the Caucasus). These networks would facilitate the implementation of the projects proposed in this Action Plan as well as the acquisition, exchange, processing, and application of climate system data to meet GCOS and regional needs. The creation of National GCOS Committees in the large countries of Central Asia is considered a useful tool for promoting GCOS at the national level. The Plan identifies needs for additional resources to implement projects and to sustain systematic climate observation programs. A resource mobilization strategy is based on seeking external donor funding for capacity building and infrastructure improvements and targeting national governments as the primary sources of funding to sustain observational programmes. Heads of NMHSs are encouraged to work actively with their governments to show them the benefits to national economies that can be gained through the proper use of weather and climate data and information. Illustrating these benefits will help NMHSs receive the funding required to implement the projects in this Action Plan and will help governments understand how improved observing programmes can help governments reduce poverty, mitigate disasters, and improve public health. 2 1. INTRODUCTION The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) was established in 1992 as a joint initiative of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO and International Council for Science (ICSU). GCOS is intended to be a long-term, user-driven operational system capable of providing the comprehensive observations required for monitoring the climate system, for detecting and attributing climate change, for assessing the impacts of climate variability and change, and for supporting research toward improved understanding, modeling and prediction of the climate system. Although GCOS does not make observations or generate data products, it does stimulate, encourage, coordinate and otherwise facilitate the taking of the needed observations by national and international organizations in support of both their own requirements and of common goals. When fully implemented, GCOS will enable nations to improve climate prediction services, mitigate climate disasters and plan for sustainable development by providing access to high quality global data sets. GCOS addresses the total climate system, including physical, chemical and biological properties and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrologic, cryospheric and terrestrial processes. Consequently, GCOS works in partnership with the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), as well as with WMO World Weather Watch and WMO Global Atmosphere Watch programs.1 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has recognized the importance of research and systematic observation. Further, its Conference of Parties (COP) in 1998 has noted that high quality data for climate-related purposes is not available in many instances due to inadequate geographic coverage, quantity, and quality of the data produced by current global and regional observing systems. Most of the problems occur in developing countries, where lack of funds for modern equipment and infrastructure, inadequate training of staff, and the high costs of continuing operations are often the major constraints. Decision 5/CP.5 in 1999 invited the GCOS Secretariat, in consultation with relevant regional and international bodies, to organize regional workshops to facilitate improvements in observing systems for climate. The central goals of the GCOS Regional Workshop programme are: • To assess the contribution of the region to GCOS baseline networks; • To help participants understand guidelines for reporting on observations to the UNFCCC; • To identify national and regional needs and deficiencies for climate data (including needs for assessing climate impacts and conducting vulnerability and adaptation studies; and • To initiate the development of a Regional Action Plan for improving climate observations. 1 For example, establishment of a Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology (GTN-H) is now underway, involving GCOS, GTOS and WMO Hydrology and Water Resources Programme. Equally, the climate component of GOOS is the ocean component of GCOS and the WMO-IOC Joint Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) is coordinating the observing system elements common to both GCOS and GOOS. 3 The seventh GCOS workshop,2 involving countries in Central Asia,3 was held in Almaty, Kazakhstan from 24 to 26 May 2004. GCOS organized this workshop with the assistance of Kazhydromet and in association with the UNDP-GEF National Communication Support Programme. The Global Environment Facility/UN Development Programme, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan provided financial support. Directors of National Meteorological Services and national climate change coordinators from 11 countries in and adjacent to Central Asia were invited to attend. Workshop participants were requested to assess climate observing networks and data management systems in Central Asia and define critical issues and priorities that should be addressed in a Regional GCOS Action Plan. Subsequently, a follow-up meeting to prepare this Action Plan was held in Yerevan, Armenia. The draft Plan was circulated widely across the region for review, and this final version of the Action Plan represents a broad consensus on regional priorities in Central Asia and actions needed to address them. The primary focus in this Action Plan is on the designated GCOS global networks, but it is recognized that improving denser regional networks also contributes to GCOS and will enhance national capabilities to address domestic climate issues and requirements. 1.1 The Regional Context Central Asia as considered in this Action Plan is a vast, topographically and climatically varied region extending from the north coast of the Arctic Ocean southward to the Himalayas and from the east coast of Black Sea eastward through western China and Mongolia (Figure 1, below). 2 Previous workshops were held in Samoa (April 2000), Kenya (October 2001), Costa Rica (March 2002), Singapore (September 2002), Niamey (March 2003), 3 Participating countries were Armenia, Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan 4 The region includes extensive tundra and forest (taiga) areas with permafrost, large plateaus, mountain zones, and desert and semi desert areas. Some countries are landlocked. One country, Russia, has a long coastline bordering the Arctic Ocean. As the aggregate of different meteorological patterns, the following types of climate may be distinguished in Central Asia: the tundra climate (associated with the cold, treeless plains of the Arctic lowlands); the cold, sharply continental climate of Eastern Siberia; the cold, moderately humid Western Siberia climate; the humid subtropical Kolkhida climate; the desert climate of the temperate zone; the mountain-steppe highland subtropical climate; the alpine desert climate; and the climate of the Eastern Pamirs, Karakoram Mountains and Tibetan Highlands. The climate of the coastal regions is directly influenced by the prevailing ocean circulation. In the northern part of Russia, the climate to a large extent depends on the water structure and circulation of the Arctic Ocean, where two current systems prevail: the Trans-Arctic current that starts in the Chukcha Sea and exits through the passage between Greenland and Spitsbergen, and the large clockwise gyre that covers almost the entire Amerasian part of the Arctic Basin. The Arctic basin is not only the heat inflow area but also the area where cold air masses headed to the middle latitudes originate and the area affecting weather and climate conditions in Central Asia. Most national economies are heavily reliant on climate-impacted industries such as agriculture, forestry, fishing, and tourism. Marine transportation is important on the coasts, and offshore oil and gas exploration and production are underway in some areas. In consequence, vulnerability to climate and its extremes is generally high throughout the region. The countries of Central Asia are now striving for sustainable development of their resources. This is generating increasing needs for observational data on all components of the climate system. These data are needed to assist governments and industries in assessing their vulnerability to climate variability and climate change and to take mitigating or adaptive measures, such as improved agricultural planning, optimization of water supply systems, and flood contral. Strengthening observational capacity in the region will, in consequence, assist countries in meeting their respective social, economic, and environmental needs while also contributing to addressing global issues. In overview, several compelling reasons exist for the development of a regional GCOS Action Plan for Central Asia. First, the global nature of climate requires ongoing cooperation among all nations to freely exchange and share climate data. Second, budgetary restrictions or lack of trained personnel make it impossible for many countries to undertake a full suite of climaterelated activities. Consequently, some coordination and sharing is desirable to avoid duplication, reduce costs, and ensure that high quality climate data and products are available to users. Finally, potential external donors may be more inclined to fund elements of a well-thought-out regional plan to improve climate observations, services, and infrastructure than to fund proposals from individual countries. 1.2 The Purpose of the Plan The purpose of this Action Plan is to establish a framework for improving systematic monitoring of the climate system in Central Asia within the context of GCOS and national commitments to the UNFCCC and with respect to regional and national priorities. The specific goals of the Action Plan are to: 5 • Identify GCOS and related requirements for systematic observations of the climate system from Central Asia; • Outline a strategy for subsequent implementation actions to rectify identified gaps and deficiencies in existing networks and programs; • Contribute to meeting national requirements for systematic climate observations to support national planning for adaptation to climate variability, climate extremes and climate change, and for sustainable development; • Enhance coordination and synergy between observations, data management, and data exchange and access programs and initiatives, both within and external to the region. 1.3 The Structure of the Plan A principal focus of the Regional Action Plan is to address the highest priority climate observing needs from the perspective of Central Asia as a whole. However, the Regional Action Plan also reflects the priority concerns of important stakeholders and users of climate data. Key stakeholders of the region are the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). Thus, important deficiencies in the functioning of the GCOS Surface and Upper-Air Networks stations operated by the NMHSs are addressed in the Plan. Equally, however, other types of climate observations are essential elements of GCOS. Consequently, priority needs of those responsible for relevant ocean and terrestrial observing networks are included. Finally, the requirements of users of climate data and derived products, such as national climate change coordinators, are reflected. Thus, the Action Plan also addresses data management, data exchange, archiving, and facilitation of access to observational data. Reflecting the preceding discussion, the Action Plan: • Presents a condensed overview of climate observing programs, networks and data management and exchange in the region, drawing attention to aspects where further development is needed to meet GCOS requirements;3 • Outlines a broad strategy aimed at ensuring that these programs and activities meet GCOS standards and requirements; • Proposes specific enhancements to individual observational programs; to their associated communications, data management, and access components; and to overall regional infrastructure and capacity; and • Draws attention to some regional priorities that lie outside the fairly restrictive definition of GCOS requirements and offers some suggestions for addressing these issues and needs. 3 Examples could include situations where operational performance of stations does not meet required standards, observational coverage is inadequate, communication and exchange of data is problematic, or other significant deficiencies exist. 6 2. THE CURRENT STATUS OF OBSERVATIONAL SYSTEMS IN THE REGION 2.1 The Atmosphere Several global observational networks have already been identified for the atmospheric component of GCOS, most notably the GCOS Surface Network (GSN) and the GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN). The Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), which observes the chemistry of the atmosphere, is also a component of the GCOS. These baseline atmospheric networks are considered the minimum required for characterizing global climate. They represent a stable and, it is hoped, sustainable underpinning for national networks that operate on finer temporal and spatial scales. It is, in consequence, particularly important that stations in these global networks operate continuously, produce high quality observations meeting GCOS standards, and deliver these data and associated metadata in a timely fashion to the designated GCOS data collecting and archiving centers.4 2.1.1 The GCOS Surface Network The GCOS Surface Network of 981 selected surface synoptic stations is intended to provide reasonably uniform global climate data coverage. The transmission of monthly GSN station CLIMAT messages is through the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). Availability, timeliness and quality of CLIMAT reports is monitored by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which acts as the global archive for these data and associated metadata, has built a GSN database with Internet access. There are 173 GSN stations located in Central Asia; these are listed in Appendix B - II. GSN Monitoring Centre statistics show as of 1 March 2004 that no CLIMAT messages were received from 48 stations, and that 8 stations were completely non-operational. Moreover, the NCDC reports that, to date, it has received metadata information for only a minority of all designated GSN stations. Therefore, action is needed to ensure reliable and timely transmission over the GTS of accurate CLIMAT messages from all GSN stations in the region. Many of the GSN stations in the region will also need to be upgraded to ensure that they are fully operational. Furthermore, metadata for these stations must be supplied to the global archive and updated periodically. 2.1.2 The GCOS Upper-Air Network The Global Upper Air Network consists of 152 selected upper air stations and is intended to provide reasonably uniform global radiosonde climate data coverage by the transmission of GUAN station CLIMAT TEMP messages on the GTS from GUAN stations. Availability, timeliness and quality of these reports are monitored jointly by the UK Meteorological Office (UKMO) Hadley Centre and the US National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC). In addition, the European Centre performs near-real-time operational quality control for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). GUAN data and metadata are archived at the NCDC. There are 18 GUAN stations located in Central Asia and these are listed in Appendix B - III. According to Monitoring Centres statistics as of 1 January 2004 16 of 18 GUAN stations were transmitting CLIMAT TEMP reports, while two stations (Ostrov Vrangelja and Ashgabat) were 4 The GCOS climate monitoring principles are detailed in Appendix B - I. 7 closed (Figure 2). Action is needed to rehabilitate these two GUAN stations. Some metadata from each of the GUAN sites in the region are available in the NCDC archive. More metadata are needed. Furthermore, updated metadata must be supplied to the global archive as changes occur to equipment, procedures, or site locations. Fig. 2. Availability of CLIMAT TEMP messages from GUAN stations according to ECMWF 2.1.4 Historical data collection Another serious deficiency in the implementation of GSN and GUAN is the lack of historical data from many of the stations. The NCDC is responsible for building a permanent data base of GSN daily and monthly data submissions, along with the appropriate station metadata history, and for providing free and open user access to this information via the Internet. Historical daily and monthly CLIMAT-formatted GSN data were received (as of September 2003) at NCDC from 387 of GSN stations in 36 countries (Figure 3). Unfortunately, there are no historical data available from Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. This may be a technical issue, as the historical data are either lost or not in a suitable form. In any case, of the 981 stations in the GSN, historical data for only 30 per cent of stations are in the NCDC archive today, making the GSN substantially less useful for long-term climate analyses. These historical data are important to individual countries, to countries within the region, and to the global climate community, and all attempts should be made to recover them. 8 Fig. 3. Availability of historical data sets at NCDC 2.1.5 Regional Basic Climatological Network The Regional Basic Climatological Network (RBCN) and national observational networks in Central Asia are considerably more extensive than is represented by the GSN and GUAN stations. According to the results of monitoring World Weather Watch (WWW) implementation (October 2003), 294 of 408 RBCN stations located in this region were transmitting CLIMAT reports (Figure 4). Data from the RBCN and national networks are vital for many applications, for example, to identify regional patterns of climate change, to support model downscaling and re-analysis activities, and to provide long-time data series for monitoring and assessment of climate behaviour in this particular region. Consequently, these broader networks must also be sustained, and access to their data must be facilitated. 2.1.6 Global Atmosphere Watch In order to predict climate change, it is critical to monitor the changing composition of atmosphere as affected by the release of gases and aerosols through natural and man-made processes. The WMO Global Atmosphere Watch was created in 1989 for systematic monitoring of the atmosphere’s chemical composition and related physical parameters on a global and regional basis and for development of a capacity to predict for future atmospheric states. To build and maintain a GAW worldwide monitoring system, a network of stations has been set up which consists of over 300 Regional and 22 Global stations, with additional observations made at contributing and associate stations (Figure 5). The parameters measured include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, total ozone, vertical ozone, surface ozone, precipitation chemistry, carbon monoxide, the physical and chemical properties of aerosols, and solar/UV radiation. To ensure consistency in the GAW monitoring network, Quality Assurance/Science Activity Centers (QA/SACs), World Calibration Centers (WCCs), World Data Centers (WDCs), and the GAW Training and Education Centre (GAWTEC) have been 9 established. The QA/SACs and WCC provide a system for common calibration and quality assurance standards throughout the GAW system. The WDCs provide a depository for GAW data and conduct initial analysis and assessment of the data. Training in the GAW measurements system is provided in a number of ways: directly at the stations, through visits to participating laboratories, at technical workshops, or through GAWTEC. In support of GCOS, the GAW system must continue to promote quality ground-based measurements, but it must also broaden its agenda and incorporate efforts to integrate ground- and satellite-based measurements to lead to a better understanding of climate change. precipitation chemistry, carbon monoxide, the physical and chemical properties of aerosols, and solar/UV radiation. To ensure consistency in Fig. 4. Availability of CLIMAT reports from RBCN stations In Central Asia, on the basis of information listed in the GAW Station Information System (GAWSIS), Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have identified GAW regional stations in their respective countries. China, Mongolia, the Russian Federation also have active GAW programmes. The Russian Federation, for example, operates 27 ozone monitoring stations, four stations located on the coast of Arctic Basin that monitor greenhouse gases, and 12 stations that measure precipitation chemistry. China has one Global and 3 Regional GAW stations at its territory. The Quality Assurance/Science Activity Centre for Asia and the South-West Pacific located in the Japan Meteorological Agency is the focal point for the region and provides coordination specifically for Asia. Other centers in North America and Europe also assist in the GAW network in the region. 10 14-Oct-2004 Miller projection - GAWSIS 2.1 (c) 2003 QA/SAC Switzerland 80oN 40oN 0o 40oS 80oS 180oW 120oW 60oW GAW Regional Station 0o 60oE Contributing Station 120oE 180oW GAW Global Station Fig. 5. Network of GAW stations 2.1.6 Overall Assessment for the Atmosphere Timely exchange of quality-controlled CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP messages is a fundamental requirement for both GSN and GUAN stations. Monitoring statistics indicate that this requirement is not being met at some stations in Central Asia. Consequently, the main priorities relating to the GSN and GUAN stations in the region are to improve performance of the less reliable stations, ensure timely transmission of CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP messages, and sustain the long-term operation of all of these stations. In the case of other regional and national (non-GCOS) networks, there are specific concerns regarding low availability of CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP messages from RBCN stations, since these data are necessary to identify regional features of climate change. It is also important to extend observational networks and programmes of observations at GAW stations to include the measurements of aerosol optical depth, precipitation chemistry, and selected trace gases. Special attention should be given to development of regional hydro-meteorological networks for climate purposes, in particular rehabilitation of mountain stations in Central Asia. 11 2.2 The Oceans The oceans are a major component of the climate system, modulating its behaviour and acting as a source and a sink for important greenhouse gases. Since the polar regions, as the longterm observing and model calculations have shown, are the most sensitive to the climate change, climate change studies in the Arctic Ocean area are extremely important to understand the nature of climate change, in particular the changes that have been observed in recent years. Arctic Ocean sea level is an indicator of atmospheric and ocean circulation dynamics, and, as a result, of climate variability. Interannual variability of Arctic Ocean sea level appears to be closely linked with climate dynamics in the North Atlantic. Arctic Ocean ice coverage (sea-ice distribution and thickness) is another important global climate change indicator. Oceanographic conditions have considerable socio-economic importance for peoples living in the coastal zone of Central Asia who are heavily dependent on fishing, tourism, and marine transportation and who face the specter of rising sea levels. The acquisition of systematic observations of oceanic conditions including sea surface temperature, winds, waves, sea level, surface and sub-surface currents, salinity and other parameters is, therefore, not only a vital component of GCOS but also important in a regional context. These data are essential for modeling and prediction of climate change, seasonal to interannual prediction, modeling and research efforts aimed at predicting the future states of the oceans, and for various planning and management applications related to economic activities and environmental conservation. 2.2.1 In-Situ Ocean Observing Networks – Present Status The GCOS observational focus is on systematic, long-term, monitoring at global to regional scales. Systematic, long-term, observational activities in the world's oceans have, until recent years, been largely limited to surface parameters used in marine weather and sea state forecasts and in sea level predictions. This situation is slowly changing, and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)5 is gradually developing into an ocean analogue of the World Weather Watch. Under the umbrella of GOOS, an increasing number of systematic observational activities are now underway that are of direct relevance to GCOS. Unfortunately, in the past 10 years a sharp reduction of hydrometeorological observing stations along the Arctic Ocean coast and on islands has occurred. Up to two-thirds of sea level measurement stations have been closed, together with the simultaneous deterioration of the quality of observations at the remaining points. Standard hydrological sections in arctic seas in summer and ice surveys from aircraft along the Northern Sea Route have been stopped. The total number of hydrometeorological stations has been reduced. In light of the above, it is very difficult to carry out climate monitoring in the Arctic Ocean. The status of the observing component in the western part of the North Pacific is better, although there is a lack of hydrometeorological stations along the coast of Russia. It is therefore important to reactivate existing stations and establish new sea level measurement stations under the aegis of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) program, extend the ice drifter network, deploy ocean moorings, and conduct marine expeditions on board ships, icebreakers, and submarines. 5 The GCOS and GOOS programs collaborate closely with the climate element of GOOS being the oceanographic component of GCOS. 12 2.2.2 Overall Assessment for the Oceans An Arctic Ocean Observing System should be established as a part of GOOS (e.g., ArcticGOOS). This should include the reactivation of existing stations and the establishment new sea level measurement stations; extension of the ice drifter network; deployment of ocean moorings; conduct of marine expeditions on ships, icebreakers, and submarines; and national airborne visual and radar patrols, supplemented by satellites with active and passive microwave sensors, optical scanners, and sounding instruments. The establishment of additional tide gauge stations on the western coast of the North Pacific would also be desirable. 2.3 The Terrestrial System Terrestrial climate observations focus on properties and attributes that control climate processes, are affected by climate, serve as indicators of climate change, or relate to its impacts. As mentioned earlier, GCOS is collaborating with the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) in addressing observational needs related to this component of the climate system.6 The GCOS/GTOS strategy is to develop an initial observing system under the umbrella of GT-Net - a system of observational networks and projects focused on particular themes. Currently five such networks are under development – a Hydrology Network (GTN-H), a Glacier Network (GTN-G), a Permafrost Network (GTN-P), an Ecology Network (GTN-E), a Global Flux Tower Network (GTN-Fluxnet).7 A variety of terrestrial monitoring programs are currently underway in Central Asia. Some of these are of particular relevance to GCOS and would contribute to the implementation of the above networks. 2.3.1 Hydrological Networks Hydrological networks in the region have been well developed since the 1980s and have served for various purposes, in particular for water resources assessment in Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) where the amount and quality of water are serious issues for sustainable development of these countries. The most significant reduction of hydrological networks in these states occurred at the end of the last century. Stations for observing mudflows, hydrological observations, and water cadastre units were liquidated. Water balance studies and observation of hard flows were also stopped. By 2004 the network of hydrological posts had been reduced by 45 per cent on average for all the Central Asian states indicated above. In order to improve the present situation it is necessary to restore hydrological post operations on major rivers, including transboundary ones, provide existing posts with modern hydrological instruments and equipment, reactivate the operations of the water-balance stations, and exchange hydrological data and cadastre publications, most importantly for transboundary water reservoirs. Some actions have already been undertaken. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the region are actively participating in the Aral Sea Basin Hydrological 6 Terrestrial observing networks for climate have not, in general, been developed to the same extent as atmospheric networks. 7 In addition, GTOS-endorsed projects are addressing the Global Observation of Forest Cover (GOFC) project and Net Primary Productivity/Net Ecological Productivity (NPP/NEP). 13 Cycle Observing System programme (Aral-HYCOS), which is aimed at documenting and understanding the surface and groundwater resources of the region. The Regional Centre on Hydrology has recently been established by five NMHSs in Almaty with assistance from the Swiss Aral Sea Mission. The Russian Federation and China provide a large contribution to hydrological networks in Central Asia. There are 3068 hydrological sites on Russian territory, and 2119 runoff sites, 274 of which provide data for international exchange. China operates 3130 hydrological sites. The activities of all countries in Central Asia will underpin the evolving GCOS Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology (GTN - Hydrology). Hydrological networks have also been established on major lakes of Central Asia to monitor hydrometeorological conditions at these sites. There are more than 100 large lakes with water areas exceeding 100 sq. km each in Central Asia. Nineteen of these are very large (not including the Caspian and Aral seas), with water areas exceeding 1000 sq. km each. These particularly large lakes store great amounts of water and play a role as indicators of climate variation. The use of such lakes as indicators, however, is possible only when long-term observations are available of the hydrological regime components vulnerable to climate variation (water levels, water temperature, ice events, evaporation, water balance). In the 1980s, when hydrological networks on the lakes in Central Asia were most dense, hydrological regime components were observed at 57 stations installed on 18 very large lakes. Unfortunately, as a result of the changed political situation in the region, the former system for observing hydrometeorological parameters has been largely paralyzed or destroyed. Observational programmes at many lake stations have been reduced, the uniform monitoring system on lakes has been separated into individual national networks when the newly independent states were formed in the Caucasus and in Central Asia, and operation of these networks is poorly coordinated. Also, there is no data exchange between them. The condition of technical equipment at lake stations in Mongolia has also become worse. Hence, in order to monitor regional climate change, there is a need to reconstruct lake monitoring stations, especially on the largest lakes of Central Asia. As for the Caspian Sea, the governments concerned (Azerbajan, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Turkmenistan) have taken a number of measures to address the acute problems. They have established a Coordinating Committee on Hydrometeorology and Monitoring of Pollution in the Caspian Sea (CASPCOM). The Committee has developed an Integrated Programme on Hydrometeorology and Monitoring Environment in the Caspian Sea Region (CASPAS) that could contribute towards the establishment of a regional system for the monitoring and exchange of relevant information on the state of the environment. Some measures, as mentioned above, have been taken or are planned to be taken by NMHSs regarding the Aral Sea. 2.3.2 Monitoring of Glaciers Regular glaciological observations of the region’s glaciers started in the late 1950s under the International Geophysical Year (IGY) work program. It was at that period that complex all-year glaciological observing was organized at the Fedchenko (Pamir), Tuyuksu (northern TyanShan), Abramov (Gissaro-Alai), and Jankuat (Caucasus) Glaciers, as well as annual observations at Shumsky (Jungar Alatau), Golubin, and Karabatkak (northern Tyan-Shan), and other glaciers. At the same period regular field studies of the Pamirs, Gissaro-Alay, Tyan-Shan, Jungar Alatau, Altai, and Caucasus glaciations started. The data acquired served as a basis for compiling a mountainous country Glacier Catalogue. They were also summarized in numerous scientific publications and in the World Snow and Ice Resource Atlas (1997). In the early 1990s field studies practically stopped and observing at the Fedchenko Glacier was broken off. The 14 Abramov Glacier station was burned in 1998; regular observing at the Golubin and Shumsky Glaciers also ceased. Continuous, year-round, glaciological-climatic observations continued to be undertaken only by the Kazakhstan Institute of Geography at Tuyuksu Glacier on the northern slope of the Zailiisk Alatau. This glacier has the longest (since 1957) year-round specialized observational series in the whole of the former USSR. Just as for the Jankaut Glacier, the Tuyuksu Glacier has been included in the Global Glaciological Monitoring network, which data are published on a regular basis. To expand the glaciological-climatic observing network in the mountains of Central Asia, it will be necessary to establish comprehensive alpine zone monitoring, which apart from glaciers, would include all other ice forms – snow cover, wind and avalanche snow, river ice, ice crust, and subterranean ice. Ice and the more than 50 per cent of snow resources that are located in the alpine zone (3000-3,200 m above the sea level) are the major sources of river runoff in the region. 2.3.3 The Permafrost Monitoring Network The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) was established in 1999 to provide longterm field observations of the active layer and permafrost thermal states that are required to determine the present permafrost conditions and to detect changes in permafrost stability. Permafrost measurements are particularly important for determining the long-term terrestrial response to surface climate change. Permafrost monitoring for climate change includes measurements of temperature profiles in perennially frozen ground and of the thickness and temperature of the overlying active layer (seasonally thawing and freezing soil). For these purposes a sufficient number of permafrost sites are required to monitor variations in active layer conditions and ground temperatures near the surface and in deep boreholes in major permafrost regions of the world. Central Asia is the largest area of alpine permafrost in the world. The mountains of Central Asia are a major regional source of fresh water for surface runoff, groundwater recharge, hydropower plants, community water supply, agriculture, urban industry, and wildlife habitat. Central Asia is included in water-stressed areas where projected climate change could further decrease stream flow and groundwater recharge. At present, there are some 30 GTN-P monitoring sites in the high elevations of Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and China that are observing active layer thickness/temperature and permafrost temperature. An additional 20 boreholes within the Inner Tien Shan permafrost area could be considered as potential contributions to the GTN-P. A large contribution to the permafrost monitoring network is provided by the Russian Federation, which maintains 37 sites for measurements of seasonal soil melt and 19 sites for measurements of ground temperature at depths. For the further development of the GTN-P, it is recommended to continue expanding the Central Asian permafrost network, to equip existing boreholes with modern sensors and loggers, and to establish new sites (without borehole drilling) for monitoring the near-surface ground temperature regime at different altitudes and landscapes. A database should be developed and continually improved by combining the collection and analysis of long-term instrumental observational data with data on spatial distribution of permafrost, ground ice, and glaciation. The compilation of an alpine permafrost and ground-ice conditions map should be initiated over the Tien Shan, Pamir, and Altai mountains of Central Asia, using existing geomorphic, hydrometeorological, geocryological, and borehole data, as well as aerial and satellite images. 15 2.3.4 Overall Assessment for the Terrestrial Component Hydrological networks and related infrastructure in Central Asia must be enhanced and realtime hydrological monitoring improved to support more timely and accurate prediction of droughts, floods and water resource availability for agriculture, power generation and other uses. It is necessary to optimize the network of hydrological stations and restore hydrological site operations on major rivers, including transboundary ones, provide existing posts with modern hydrological instruments and equipment, reactivate the operations of the water-balance stations, and exchange hydrological data and cadastre publications, most importantly for transboundary water reservoirs. It is necessary to re-open coastal and lake hydrometeorological stations and conduct expeditions to monitor the Caspian Sea, Aral Sea, and other large lakes in Central Asia. As regards the development of a glaciological-climatic observing network, it is important to resume all-year glaciological observing at existing stations and establish alpine zone glacialsphere monitoring (3000-3,200 m above the sea level), which apart from glaciers that would include all other ice forms – snow cover, wind and avalanche snow, river ice, ice crust, and subterranean ice. It is recommended that the Central Asian permafrost network continue to be expanded, that existing boreholes be equipped with modern sensors and loggers, and that new sites be established (without borehole drilling) for monitoring the near-surface ground temperature regime at different altitudes and landscapes. Enhancing overall data quality and improving data management, data exchange, databases and archives, and facilitating user access to data, must also be priorities in operating the above networks. 2.4 Other Networks and Systems 2.4.1 Space-based Observations Many GCOS requirements can only be met in a practical and cost-effective manner by the use of space-based observations and satellite data and products. In particular, only satellite remote sensing can provide consistent observational coverage over both individual regions and the entire globe. In-situ and space-based observations are, however, complementary. Satellite observations provide spatial coverage, while in-situ observations provide essential “ground truth” for satellite data, in addition to their own intrinsic value and length of record. Data from operational meteorological satellites (since 1970) and oceanographic satellites (since 1984) are used by the Russian Federal Agency on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) on a regular basis to provide hydrometeorological services to research, socio-economic, and other activities. Roshydromet has the most advanced ground complex of satellite data receiving, processing and distribution centers at the federal level: SRC “Planeta” (Moscow, Obninsk, Dolgoprudny), two regional centers West-Siberia (Novosibirsk) and the Far-East (Khabarovsk), and a network of more than 60 autonomous data receiving stations over Russia. SRC “Planeta”, the main Roshydromet center for receiving, collecting, processing, archiving and distribution of satellite data daily receives and processes more than 50 GB of data. Its database contains meteorological, oceanographic and environmental satellite data going back to 1979. In 2003, satellite data were used by SRC “Planeta” for mapping ice conditions on seas, lakes and rivers; for monitoring snow and vegetation coverage; and for long- 16 term environmental change research. Specialized satellite data archives for the Caspian Sea, Aral Sea, and Balkhash, Issyk-Kul, and Sevan Lakes and other lakes have been created. Since 1997 SRC “Planeta” has successfully conducted activities to automate satellite data receiving, processing, and distribution systems and provided access to satellite data via the Internet. Many users who need such data have no access to the Internet or have some restrictions on receiving the full amount of data because of slow communication channels. 2.4.2 Overall Assessment for Space-based Observations The enhancement of satellite data applications for climate purposes in Central Asia will be of great value because it will allow estimation of changes of the environment on the basis of the most up-to-date technologies for receiving, processing, and distributing present and archived satellite data. The assessment of seasonal and inter-annual changes of soil-vegetation coverage of arid zones in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, and southern Russia will also be enhanced with satellite data applications, as well as the assessment of environmental changes in the seas and large lakes in Central Asia. Improvement of the use of satellite data and products for climate purposes in Central Asia is very important but limited by lack of funding for the purchase of necessary equipment, lack of qualified personnel, and absence of specialized archives of satellite data in NMHSs. It is therefore necessary to initiate a project to improve satellite data applications for climate monitoring and research. 3.0 REGIONAL COORDINATION AND ORGANIZATION GCOS is a global program that is closely inter-linked with and reliant upon other global and regional programs. It is being implemented through national contributions that are often delivered by several different agencies within each country. Consequently, it is not surprising that the need for effective coordination is a recurring theme at both international and domestic levels. There is, however, no over-arching organizational infrastructure in Central Asia to facilitate GCOS-related coordination. At present, no regional forum or centralized web site exists to bring the various stakeholders together as a coherent group with a focus on systematic observations of the total climate system. In addition, only few nations have designated someone to coordinate climate system observing and data management issues across their government agencies or to act as an interface between national, regional and global GCOS concerns. 3.1 Overall Assessment The implementation of the present Action Plan will require close cooperation between the nations of Central Asia in the common pursuit of initiatives and funding opportunities and to pool capacities to achieve operational goals. A more coherent regional approach could yield benefits in areas such as the purchase of equipment and consumables, maintenance of observing systems, data management, and data access. It would also assist in optimizing the design of observing networks and data management and archive systems; delivering training courses, graduate and post-graduate studies, and other capacity building efforts; and in the planning and conduct of research programs. The broad spectrum of agencies, institutions, and client groups involved in climate system monitoring, data management, and applications within individual countries also generates requirements for enhanced coordination at the domestic level. These domestic and external requirements for cooperation and coordination must be addressed through the establishment of appropriate GCOS coordination structures to facilitate the delivery of capacity-building programs and initiatives; improve data access and exchange; minimize 17 duplication; and gain optimum regional benefits from investments in facilities, instrumentation, telecommunications, human resources, and other contributing elements. 3.2 Recommendations In order to improve coordination at national and regional levels, it is recommended: 1) To establish a network of focal points for the RBCN, and especially for the GSN and GUAN networks. This will ensure the correct identification of stations in these networks and their operation according to expected standards. After a validation process, the same focal points would become the points of contact for the operation of the stations in their host countries. These focal points could assist in the analysis of the causes of problems at stations in their countries. 2) To improve coordination within individual countries among agencies that are engaged in climate data collection or in related data management and exchange, and/or that are users of data and derived products. The establishment of National GCOS Committees in some countries in Central Asia would be appropriate. 3) To improve coordination among the nations of Central Asia through a network of subregional coordinators. Such network would facilitate the acquisition, exchange, processing and application of climate system data to meet GCOS and regional needs. In view of the large territory of Central Asia it is appropriate to divide it into four subregions, namely the Russian Federation, China, Middle-Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) and the Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia). It is useful to select a sub-regional coordinator for each of these sub-regions who can coordinate activities related to GCOS and communicate with other sub-regional or national coordinators to assure overall coordination among the nations of Central Asia. 4.0 SPECIFIC PROJECTS TO ADDRESS ISSUES AND REQUIREMENTS An effective GCOS Regional Action Plan must first address global-level GCOS requirements, aiming to ensure the long-term operation of the regional components of the primary GCOS networks (e.g. GSN and GUAN) to established standards. While this will contribute substantially to meeting regional needs, a truly meaningful plan must also address other high regional priorities. The following sections outline a series of strategic thrusts and specific projects that will: - Significantly enhance the capacity of the nations of Central Asia to meet GCOS, regional and national requirements for observations and related products to support climate change detection, climate modeling and prediction, and climate impact assessments; and to assist in planning for sustainable development and for adaptation to climate and its extremes. - Improve coordination among national institutions, agencies and individuals engaged in data collection, data management, data exchange and production of related products and services and with the community of users and user agencies. - Improve coordination across the region and with international programmes to ensure optimal regional responses to GCOS and other requirements for climate data. 18 Substantial capacity building and investment in infrastructure must be undertaken in Central Asia if the objectives of this Regional Action Plan are to be met. The following projects are aimed at remedying critical deficiencies in the region´s systematic climate observation programmes. The Atmosphere From a GCOS perspective, the most immediate priority in the area of atmospheric observations is to ensure that GSN and GUAN stations in Central Asia operate to specified global standards, relay their data in a timely manner, and are adequately funded to sustain their operations over a long time period. More specifically, it is essential to ensure timely transmission of CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP messages over the GTS, provide regularly updated metadata to the NCDC, target these stations as priority sites for any needed upgrades, and maintain their operations over the long term. The systematic archiving and provision of easy access to high quality, long duration, historical time series of climate data are fundamental to the achievement of the objectives of GCOS and to meeting regional needs. It is also necessary to extend observing programmes at GAW stations as well as to rehabilitate a network of mountain stations. To address these requirements, the following projects are planned: 19 Project No 1. Improving the GCOS Surface and Upper-Air Observing Networks in Central Asia Background: The GCOS Surface Network (GSN) and GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN) are two critically important meteorological networks within the Global Climate Observing System for understanding climate change. There are 173 GSN and 18 GUAN stations within Central Asia. However, observations from these stations are currently inadequate for the purposes of detecting, attributing, monitoring and predicting climate change. More than one third of GSN stations do not currently provide CLIMAT messages; 8 GSN stations and 2 GUAN stations are silent (see Tables 1 and 2). Table 1 GSN implementation in the region Country Number Stations with Stations GSN stations CLIMAT Without CLIMAT Azerbaijan 1 1 0 China 33 32 1 Georgia 1 0 1 Kazakhstan 14 14 0 Kyrgyzstan 1 0 1 Mongolia 10 10 0 Russia 103 55 42 Tajikistan 2 0 0 Turkmenistan 5 3 2 Uzbekistan 3 3 0 Total 173 118 48 Silent stations 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 Table 2 GUAN implementation in the region Country Number Stations with Stations without Silent GUAN stations CLIMAT TEMP CLIMAT TEMP stations Armenia 1 1 0 0 China 8 8 0 0 Russia 8 7 0 1 Turkmenistan 1 0 0 1 Total 18 16 0 2 Many stations are not functioning adequately because funds are insufficient to acquire equipment and to carry out day-to-day operations. In addition, there is lack of qualified staff to operate and maintain equipment. As regards GSN stations, which belong to the Russian Federation, WMO has recently received the proposal of ROSHYDROMET to revise the existing list of GSN stations in Russian territory (as given in the Annex to this project), and this should improve the transmission of CLIMAT messages in Russia. External assistance is needed for one station (Naryn) in the Kyrgyz Republic to replace obsolete equipment and for two GSN 20 stations in Tajikistan (Khorog and Kurgan-Tyube) to ensure timely transmission of SYNOP and CLIMAT reports by installation of telecommunication equipment. Other problems regarding transmission of CLIMAT messages should be fixed at national level. As regards GUAN stations, financial assistance is required to provide the station in Yerevan (Armenia) with necessary equipment and expendables and to rehabilitate stations in Ashgabat (Turkmenistan) and Ostrov Vrangelja (Russian Federation). The efficient operation of the GSN and GUAN is important for achieving the GCOS goal of facilitating improvements in climate observations, leading to better: • • • Climate system monitoring, climate change detection and assessment of impacts of climate change. Accurate data for economic development. Research related to climate activities. The Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has recognized the vital importance of improving climate observing systems. At its 5th Session COP urged Parties to address deficiencies in the climate observing networks in developing countries with a view to Improve collection, exchange, and utilization of data on a continuing basis in pursuance of the UNFCCC goals and to develop the necessary capacity to operate and maintain networks (Decision 5/CP.5). The UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) has noted with concern the ongoing deterioration of global observation systems for climate. This has also been emphasized in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The region is vulnerable to extreme climate events, which have adverse social-economic impacts. The situation is worse over sparsely populated areas, mountains, deserts, oceans, and those hit by natural disasters. Causes of deficiencies in the observation networks include: • • • Lack of financial resources to acquire equipment High costs of consumables Lack of qualified staff The benefits of accurate and reliable data will assist in the alleviation of poverty and reduction of food insecurity through application of climate outlook programmes. For better understanding of global climate, it is important that the standards of operation of GSN and GUAN stations are the same in developing countries as in developed countries. Uneven distribution of data also leads to a bias in the performance of climate models and inhibits the validation over data sparse areas. Objective: The objective of this project is therefore to fully implement efficient, cost effective and sustainable GSN and GUAN networks for Central Asia that can meet both global and regional needs. Achieving this goal will require both the purchase of new equipment and targeted capacity building. The specific objectives include: • • To assess, rehabilitate and/or automate the existing GSN and GUAN; To build capacity related to operation, maintenance and repair; 21 • • To ensure continuous and timely transmission of data; and To seek partnerships with other related services and end-users. Location: Central Asia, in particular the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan for GSN stations and Armenia, the Russian Federation, and Turkmenistan for GUAN stations. Duration: 3 years Project Design: The planned activities and expected outputs from this project are detailed in the following table: No. Activities Output 1. Rehabilitate existing GSN and GUAN stations Improved, efficient and reliable GCOS observing networks (i.e., 100% of expected reports) 2. Build capacity related to operation, Sustained data availability maintenance, and repair 3. Ensure continuous and timely transmission CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP reports Timely receipt of quality-controlled data sets for users 4. Establish partnership Improve efficiency and reduce costs. Implementation: The project will commence with preparation and submission by countries concerned of the appropriate VCP requests regarding instruments and equipment for surface observations and telecommunications means for timely transmission of CLIMAT messages from GSN stations. As soon as potential donors are found and equipment delivered to countries through VCP channels, the stations could start the transmission of CLIMAT reports as required. For GUAN stations the process of implementation should start also with submission of VCP requests; however due to the more complicated process of station recovery it will take longer to see results than for GSN stations. Risk and Sustainability: The long term sustainability of the upgraded networks is dependent on successful capacity building and on continuing budgetary allocations that are sufficient for purchase of consumables and payment of staff and other operational costs. Hence, the main risks are associated with these key elements. Indicative Budget: The following tables provide preliminary cost estimates for the various components of this project. 22 1a. Rehabilitation of existing GSN stations Country Name of station Kyrgyz Naryn Republic Tajikistan Khorog, KurganTye Experienced difficulties Proposal for solution Obsolete equipment Replacement of equipment and instruments Installation of telecommunication means and of diesel-generator: Lack of telecommunication means and periodical cutoff of electricity Radio station “Angara” and antenna Diesel-generator 5-6 kWt or Diesel-generator 24 kWt Two batteries Amount (thousands US$) 18,500 6,700 3,000 14,600 1,100 1b. Rehabilitation of existing GUAN stations Country Station name Experienced difficulties Proposal for solution Armenia Yerevan Lack of consumables Purchase radiosondes Russian Federation Ostrov Vrangelja Lack of consumables and need for modernisation of upper-air equipment Turkmenistan Ashgabat Obsolete ground equipment and lack of consumables 90% for purchase radiosondes 10% for modernisation of equipment Installation of new ground equipment Provision of hydrogen generator Provision of consumables radiosondes and balloons 2. Capacity building related to operation, maintenance and repair Attachments to personnel 3. Ensure continuous and timely transmission of CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP reports 4. Establish partnership Amount (thousands US$) 100,000 200,000 143,000 1,500 120,000 100,000 (see table 1a) No costs Total 708,400 US$ 23 Authors of the project: O.Abramenko (Kazhydromet) and E.Sarukhanian (GCOS consultant) Annex to project 1 Revised list of GSN and GUAN stations located on the territory of the Russian Federation INDEX 20069 20087 20292 20667 20674 20744 20891 20982 21432 21802 21921 21931 21946 21982 23074 23205 23330 23383 23405 23472 23552 23631 23678 23711 23724 23884 23891 23914 23921 23933 23955 24125 24143 24266 24329 24343 24382 24507 24641 24671 LAT 79 30N 79 33N 77 43N 73 20N 73 30N 72 22N 71 59N 70 58N 76 00N 71 58N 70 41N 70 46N 70 37N 70 59N 69 24N 67 38N 66 32N 66 53N 65 26N 65 47N 64 55N 63 56N 63 09N 62 42N 62 26N 61 36N 61 40N 60 24N 60 41N 61 01N 60 26N 68 30N 68 44N 67 34N 66 15N 66 46N 66 27N 64 16N 63 46N 63 57N LON 76 59E 90 37E 104 18E 70 03E 80 24E 52 42E 102 28E 94 30E 137 52E 114 05E 127 24E 136 13E 147 53E 178 29E 86 10E 53 02E 66 40E 93 28E 52 16E 87 56E 77 49E 65 03E 87 57E 56 12E 60 52E 90 01E 96 22E 56 31E 60 27E 69 02E 77 52E 112 26E 124 00E 133 24E 114 17E 123 24E 143 14E 100 14E 121 37E 135 52E STN NAME Ostrov Vize Ostrov Golomjannyj GMO IM. E.K. FEDOROVA Im. M.V. Popova Ostrov Dikson Malye Karmakuly Hatanga VOLOCHANKA OSTROV KOTEL’NYJ Saskylah Kjusjur Jubilejnaja Chokurdah OSTROV VRANGELJA Dudinka Nar'Jan-Mar Salehard AGATA Ust'-Cil'ma Turuhansk Tarko-Sale Berezovo VERHNEIMBATSK Troicko-Pecerskoe Njaksimvol' BOR Bajkit Cherdyn' IVDEL’ Hanty-Mansijsk ALEKSANDROVSKOE Olenek Dzardzan Verhojansk Selagoncy Zhigansk Ust'-Moma Tura Viljujsk Tompo 24 GSN X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X GUAN X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 24688 24738 24817 24908 24959 24966 25173 25248 25325 25356 25399 25400 25538 25551 25563 25594 25705 25744 25927 25954 28009 28064 28138 28224 28275 28418 28493 28552 28698 28722 29231 29263 29282 29570 29612 29789 29862 29866 29939 30054 30230 30309 30372 30433 30554 30636 30673 30710 30758 30879 30925 63 15N 62 09N 61 16N 60 20N 62 01N 60 23N 68 54N 67 15N 66 33N 66 23N 66 10N 65 44N 64 13N 64 41N 64 44N 64 25N 62 27N 62 26N 59 39N 60 21N 59 22N 59 37N 58 31N 58 01N 58 09N 56 28N 56 54N 56 04N 54 56N 54 43N 58 19N 58 27N 58 23N 56 02N 55 20N 54 13N 53 46N 53 42N 52 41N 59 27N 57 46N 56 17N 56 54N 55 47N 54 29N 53 37N 53 45N 52 16N 52 05N 51 19N 50 22N 143 09E 117 39E 108 01E 102 16E 129 43E 134 27E 179 22W 167 58E 159 25E 173 20E 169 50W 150 54E 164 14E 170 25E 177 32E 173 14W 152 19E 166 05E 154 16E 166 00E 52 13E 65 43E 58 51E 56 18E 68 15E 53 44E 74 23E 63 39E 73 24E 55 50E 82 57E 92 09E 97 27E 92 45E 78 22E 96 58E 91 19E 91 42E 84 57E 112 35E 108 04E 101 45E 118 16E 109 33E 113 35E 109 38E 119 44E 104 19E 113 29E 119 37E 106 27E Ojmjakon Suntar Erbogacen Vanavara Jakutsk Ust'-Maja MYS SHMIDTA Ilirnej Ust'-Oloj EN’MUVEEM Mys Uelen Zyrjanka VERHNE-PENZHINO Markovo ANADYR’ BUHTA PROVIDENIYA SREDNEKAN KAMENSKOE BROHOVO Korf Kirs Leusi Biser Perm' Tobol'sk SARAPUL TARA SHADRINSK Omsk Ufa Kolpasevo Enisejsk Bogucany Krasnojarsk Barabinsk VERHNYAYA GUTARA HAKASSKAYA Minusinsk BIJSK-ZONAL’NAYA Vitim Kirensk Bratsk Chara NIZHNEANGARSK Bagdarin BARGUZIN Mogoga Irkutsk Chita Nerchinskij Zavod Kjahta 25 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 30949 30965 31004 31088 31168 31253 31329 31369 31416 31707 31829 31873 31960 32061 32098 32150 32252 32389 32540 32618 35011 35121 36259 49 34N 50 24N 58 37N 59 22N 56 27N 54 43N 53 04N 53 09N 52 25N 47 44N 47 19N 45 52N 43 07N 50 54N 49 13N 46 57N 58 30N 56 19N 53 05N 55 12N 52 26N 51 41N 50 01N 111 58E 116 31E 125 22E 143 12E 138 09E 128 56E 132 59E 140 42E 136 30E 130 58E 138 59E 133 44E 131 56E 142 10E 143 06E 142 43E 159 10E 160 50E 158 35E 165 59E 53 08E 55 06E 88 41E Kyra Borzja Aldan Ohotsk Ajan Bomnak Ekimchan Nikolaevsk-na-Amure Im Poliny Osipenko Ekaterino-Nikol'skoe Zolotoj DAL’NERECHENSK VLADIVOSTOK Aleksandrovsk-Sahalinskij Poronajsk Juzhno-Sahalinsk Ust-Vojampolka Kljuchi Petropavlovsk-Kamchatchij Nicol'skoe SOROCHINSK ORENBURG KOSH-AGACH 26 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Project No 2. Meteorological observational data rescue and historical data collection for GCOS stations. Background: Within the framework of the Global Climate Observation System much attention is given to the preparation of climate data to obtain climate change estimates in conducting monitoring of the impact on the climatic system, including natural and anthropogenic factors, as well as in characterizing extreme phenomena which are of importance for evaluating the consequences of climate change and adapting to this change. The Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) has noted the absence of high-quality data for climate-related purposes due to inadequate territorial coverage and the low quality of data collected by the existing regional observation systems. No information from the meteorological stations of the Central Asian states that were part of the former USSR has been made available for the historical database for GCOS stations. The creation of meteorological historical data archives for the states of Central Asia that were included in the former USSR has a common history and common problems. These problems have been repeatedly discussed at regional meetings supported by WMO. The Regional Meeting for Climatic Data Management and Data Rescue (Kyrgyztan, 14-19 April 2003) discussed the current status of the problem of acquisition, processing, and accumulation of current and historical meteorological data. The lack of data on modern computer-compatible carriers for individual periods, the unreliable operation of the software of the applied climatic database management systems, and difficult access to archived data require a complex approach to solving the problem of historical database creation for GCOS stations in the region. Objective: The objective of the Project is to create a historical database for GCOS stations in the Central Asian region. To achieve this aim, a number of problems will be solved. These are as follows: • Acquisition (rescue) of historical data for GCOS stations and recording of these data on modern computer-compatible carriers; • Formation of historical data sets in the “Climat” format; • Formation of metadata sets of the appropriate stations; • Elimination of inhomogeneity from the series of meteorological elements which is related to modifications in observation procedures and data processing, replacement of instruments, etc. • Regular update of data sets with current information. Location: The states of Central Asia that were included in the former USSR. Duration: 3-4 years. Project Design: At the Project preparation stage, questionnaires will be used to determine the manner in which individual National Hydrometeorological Services will be involved. • The first part of the Project comprises the rescue of historical data on out-of-date computer-compatible carriers and in hard copies. In creating historical data series, it is necessary to fill the gaps in meteorological data that appeared at different stages of the data archive creation (e.g., in transferring the data from punch cards to magnetic tapes 27 and from out-of-date magnetic tapes to present-day computer-compatible carriers). In each country the implementation of this part of the Project is a function of the state of national data archives. • The second part of the Project will be the creation of historical data sets in the “Climat” format and metadata sets for GCOS stations in the region on the basis of recovered historical data archives. In creating historical data sets, special emphasis should be given to data quality control and elimination of data inhomogeneity. The reasons for data inhomogeneity in the states of Central Asia are similar in many respects. These are modifications in observation procedures (e.g., different frequency of observations), replacement of instruments (e.g., rain-gauge by precipitation gauge), modifications in data processing procedures (e.g., introducing corrections in precipitation observations due to wet instruments), etc. • The third part of the Project will allow the regular update of data sets with current information and will introduce unified climatic database management systems into National Hydrometeorological Services in accordance with the resolution of the Regional Meeting for Climate Data Management and Data Rescue (Kyrgyz Republic, 14-19 April, 2003). Expected Outcomes: High-quality historical database for GCOS stations in Central Asia and, metadata sets of the appropriate stations. Implementation: The Project will begin as soon as the funds are available. Project coordinator: All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre (Roshydromet). Risk and Sustainability: An integrated approach to the creation of historical data sets will make it possible to obtain high-quality climatic data sets that meet the GCOS requirements. Indicative Budget: № Expense items 1. Creation of data archives on modern computer-compatible carriers (rescue of historical data on out-of-date carries) 1.1. Creation of meteorological data archives for Georgian stations 2. 3. Creation of historical data sets in the «Climate» format. Creation of metadata sets of the appropriate stations. 2.1. Creation of historical data sets for GCOS stations in the Central Asian regions from the start of observations to 1991. Filling the gaps in meteorological data using sources (tables of observations). Creation of metadata sets of the appropriate stations. 2.2. Creation of historical data sets from 1991 up to the present time. Creation of metadata sets of the appropriate stations. Removal of inhomogeneity from meteorological data series which is caused by changes in observation and processing procedures, replacement of instruments, etc. for GCOS stations in the Central 28 Amount (USD) 20,000 520 (for one meteorological station) 150 (for one meteorological station) 18,000 4. 5. Asian regions. Ensuring the regular update of data sets with current information. Implementation of unified climatic database management systems (CDBMS) into National Hydrometeorological Services (NHGMS) according to the resolution of the Regional Meeting for Climate Data Management and Data Rescue (Kyrgyztan, 14-19 April, 2003). For NHGMS: 4.1. CliWare program package 4.2. Hardware 4.3. Implementation expenditure Project coordination and management expenditure 20,000 -Russia will provide this package within the framework of the VCP 10,000 2,000 18,000 TOTAL (see note below) Note: The total amount of project costs will be determined based on the number of participating countries and number of stations included in historical data sets. Author of project: O. Bulygina, (VNIIGMI-World Data Center B, Roshydromet) 29 Project No 3. Strengthening the GAW network in Central Asia (increasing measurements of aerosol optical depth and precipitation chemistry) Background: The WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) is a base component of GCOS. Observational information produced under the GAW programme is a very important source of data on chemical composition and physical properties of the atmosphere at global and regional scales. This information is widely available and is one of the key sources for interpretation of and understanding current climate and for assessment of possible climate changes in the future through modeling. The GAW program includes observation of physical and chemical parameters like greenhouse gases, ozone, reactive gases, aerosol optical depth (AOD), precipitation chemistry (PC), etc. GAW has advanced international infrastructure, which ensures a high quality of observational information, archiving of data, and easy access. There is a generally lack of GAW observational sites in the central parts of continents, and this is particularly true with respect to Central Asia, one of the biggest continental regions of the planet. At present, only one global GAW station is functioning in the extreme South - in Tibet, China. Additionally, three regional GAW stations are in operation in other parts of China. The observational programme at these stations includes measurements of AOD and PC, while in the rest of the territory of Central Asia, there are no other stations (according to the reference GAW information system (GAWSIS)) measuring AOD and PC. This is a large gap in observational data coverage that has global significance. The launching of a programme to measure AOD and PC at GAW stations in Central Asia is therefore extremely important. Measurements of aerosol optical depth and precipitation chemistry were made in the former USSR for a few decades prior to the early 90s. The data obtained were regularly delivered to GAW World Data Centers (WDSs). This was terminated in the early 90s due to a lack of resources for quality assurance support and, consequently, some doubts in data quality. By now, the main infrastructure elements of the observational system in Central Asia are retained for AOD and PC measurements. In particular, some PC laboratories recently restarted their participation in intercomparisons conducted by the GAW World Calibration Center on PC (Albany, USA). In order to maintain past experience taking AOD measurements, an approximate determination of AOD is continuing at present at several Russian stations by using a traditional technique of wide-range filter measurements of direct solar radiation. Reestablishing/strengthening AOD and PC observations in Central Asia and setting up new GAW stations is of great importance for a number of reasons. First of all, Central Asia is a unique region. It is a large continental area located in the middle of Eurasia having diverse weather and climate conditions. This region is therefore under the influence of continental climatic factors and of the Arctic and, at the same time, less affected by influence of the world ocean. Large deserts and forest areas are prominent features of the region. Besides, average population density is relatively low in most parts of the Central Asia region and, as a consequence, anthropogenic impacts on the environment are relatively low in most parts of the region. Therefore, a significant part of Central Asia is a natural indicator of the spatial and temporal patterns of AOD and PC that are significant for understanding global and regional climate changes and for developing approaches to mitigate related risks. NMSs in Central Asia have the potential to organize in a relatively short time the reestablishment and/or increase of AOD and PC measurements if necessary funding is provided. Strengthening AOD and PC measurements could be made separately for each type of observation. If necessary, the GAW project could therefore be presented as two relatively independent sub-projects: sub-project 1 on AOD and sub-project 2 on PC. In the sections 30 below, where sub-projects have small differences, a common description is given for both subprojects. In sections where such differences are significant, a description of sub-projects is given separately. Nevertheless, joint realization of both sub-projects as an integrated project would increase sustainability and decrease related risks. Objective: Sub-project 1 (AOD) and Sub-project 2 (PC) • • • To develop an observational system for AOD and PC at GAW stations in Central Asia; To create the technical and personnel prerequisites for long-term reliable functioning through re-equipping selected operational GAW stations and launching new observations at functioning meteorological stations on the basis of participation of interested countries, coordination of their activities, and technical support provided by sponsors; and To establish technical opportunities for the long-term transmission of high-quality AOD and PC data, its archiving and uninterrupted delivery to GAW World Data Centers, and to ensure free access of data via the internet for non-commercial usage. Location: The project encompasses a network of 10 - 15 selected stations and central laboratories of this network. A preliminary list of candidate stations is applicable for both subprojects and includes the following (transliteration from Russian in Russian alphabetic order): Berezinski Biospherny Zapovednik, Voeikovo, Ilchir (or (Mondy), Lovozero, Ostrov Beringa, Ostrov Kotelny, Pamyatnaya, Pik Terskol, Ra-Iz, Salemal, Teriberka, Turukhansk, Ust-Vym, Khamar-Daban, Khuzhir. This list of stations could be extended by participating countries; however the total number of selected stations for each sub-project should not be more than 15. The station list may be somewhat different for each sub-project and be defined more accurately after the project is launched. The central body of sub-project 1 (AOD) will be the scientific laboratory at the Main Geophysical Observatory of ROSHYDROMET in St. Petersburg (Russia). This laboratory will ensure scientific guidance for implementing the project and for continuing operations. The central bodies of sub-project 2 (PC) will be the Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg (Russia) and the Institute of Hydrometeorology, Tashkent (Uzbekistan). Duration: Sub-project 1 (AOD): 1.5 years. Sub-project 2 (PC): 2.5 years. Note: The longer duration of sub-project 2 is based on the more difficult tasks required to ensure high quality performance of multi-component precipitation sample analysis at group laboratories. Project Design: For each sub-project an observational network will include 10 to 15 stations and central laboratories for scientific guidance of project implementation and operations. A preliminary list of stations and laboratories is given in the “Location” section). The following steps will be taken for each sub-project: • • An examination of every candidate station to estimate its acceptance for the purposes of each sub-project and to make corrections of the candidate station list if necessary. Development of a technically specific design of the observation network for both subprojects (for the whole project or for each sub-project separately). 31 • • • • • • Installation of equipment and infrastructure required at stations (measurement devices, laboratory equipment, computers and general/special software, communication channels, data management system). Preparation of documentation on equipment maintenance and operating stations. Justification/calibration of instruments. Training of personnel. Conduct pilot observations at newly established stations and make final adjustment of observation technology as an integrated cycle (from measurements to archiving data and delivering it to users). Launching of regular observations at newly established stations following WMO GAW standards and transmission of data to GAW World Data Centers and other users; organization of data archiving and storage at stations and at sub-project central laboratories. Implementation: When a decision to accept the project is made, a joint steering group will be established to manage both sub-projects as an integrated project (in total, 5 specialists), or two steering groups to manage each sub-project (3 specialists for each sub-project). A steering group(s) should develop an adjusted cost estimate of the project (or sub-projects), and a detailed schedule of project implementation following the Project Design. These will be submitted to participating countries for approval. During project, implementation, the steering group will co-ordinate its activities with corresponding bodies of NHMSs, GAW, and GCOS. Expected outcomes: As a result of the implementation of the project (or sub-projects) an observational network will be developed with modern instrumentation and related equipment to measure AOD and PC under GAW standards. This network should be in operation for a long time, produce high quality data delivered to World Data Centers, and be easily available to other end-users (for non-commercial purposes). The data will meet requirements of the international scientific community and the national research and operational needs of countries in Central Asia, enabling them to adapt to climate change/climate variations and to decrease related risks to life and property. Risk and Sustainability: The main risks of project (or both sub-projects) implementation are: • • • Recruiting station staff of required skills and experience; Assurance of uninterrupted and long-term functioning of the observational system; Establishment and maintenance of a quality assurance/quality control system. These risks could be decreased through: • • • Selecting and training specialists and creating related good labor conditions; Accepting by national government agencies obligations to assure the long-term regular functioning of the observational network in operation in each country; Developing, with international support, a system of data quality assurance, including intercalibrations and periodical specialist training. Project sustainability is connected, first of all, with national and international guarantees of longterm stable funding, as well as stable financial support of the network launched from corresponding national sources. To ensure sustainability of national obligations, governments should accept NMHS requests. Continuous support of WMO and other international institutions is also important to ensure sustainability. Bilateral partnerships could be important resources. 32 Indicative Budget: Custom taxes and transportation costs are not accounted in cost estimates below. Sub-project 3.1 (AOD): Amount (USD) 1. Equipping observational stations (15 stations - $ 30, 000 each station) $ 450, 000 2. Equipping a scientific laboratory $ 20, 000 3. Training staff of stations and scientific laboratory, including preparation of documents on equipment maintenance and station operation $ 20, 000 4. Sub-project management (18 months - $ 1, 000 monthly) $ 18, 000 Sub-total: $ 508, 000 Sub-project 3.2 (PC): 1. Equipping observational stations (15 stations - $25, 000 each station) $ 375, 000 2. Equipping two central analytical laboratories and a scientific laboratory (2 analytical labs - $ 100, 000 each one, scientific lab - $20, 000) $ 220, 000 3. Training specialists of stations including preparation of documents on equipment maintenance and station operation $ 10, 000 4. Sub-project management (30 months - $ 1, 000 monthly) $ 30, 000 Sub-total: $ 640, 000 Total: $ 1,148, 000 Author of the project: S. Chicherin (Main Geophysical Observatory, Roshydromet) 33 The Oceans The development of a systematic, long-term, ocean observing system is essential to support climate modeling and prediction and to assist the nations in the region to improve their capabilities to manage their coastal and ocean environments. As previously mentioned, the establishment of an Arctic Ocean Observing System would be appropriate in this context. This proposal is already included in the Framework for the International Polar Year 2007-2008. Hence, there is no necessity to launch a specific project on this issue in the GCOS Action Plan for Central Asia. Terrestrial Systems The systematic observation of the hydrological regime in Central Asia is a regional GCOS priority. To address this priority, it is planned to undertake a regional assessment of monitoring networks for surface water and groundwater (including glaciers and permafrost), identify network gaps and other deficiencies, and prepare specific projects to address these needs as follows: Project No 4. Improving hydrological networks on major rivers in Central Asia The project includes four interrelated sub-projects, each addressing the issue of improving hydrological observations on the main rivers of Central Asia. All components (sub-projects) can be implemented as one integrated project; however, it is possible to implement each sub-project separately, depending on funding conditions. The total budget for the four sub-projects is 1,126,000 USD. Sub-Project 4.1. Rehabilitating the operation of high-mountain stations in the Aral Sea Basin Background: Water discharged to the Aral Sea Basin is formed in the Central Asia Mountains and derived mainly by snow and glacier melting. As result of the collapse of the USSR and of acts of terrorism, many high-mountain stations have been closed. Information from these stations has significant importance not only for river discharge forecasts but also for assessment of climate change. The stations were operating in a complex regime. Besides an observational programme, they have carried out research on glaciological, climatological, and hydrological processes. At present, the political situation is more stable; however, the economic constraints do not allow rehabilitation of the whole complex of observations. As the economies of Central Asia countries, especially their agriculture and energy sectors, depend on water resources, rehabilitation of high-mountain stations is very important for socio-economic development. According to a regional agreement under the aegis of the Executive Committee of the International Fund for the Aral Sea (EC IFAS), rehabilitation of high-mountain stations is a high priority. Objectives: • • • To select 3-4 representative stations for recovery of hydrometeorolgical observations. To determine station representation on the basis of regional and global observation needs. To transmit observational data to global data and information centers. 34 Location: Stations to be rehabilitated are situated in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan; however, the information from these stations is very important for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as well. The stations are located in the Amudarya and Syrdarya river basins in the West Tien-Shan and Pamir Mountains at altitudes of more then 3000m (Abramov, Fedchenko, and Golubin glaciers). Duration: The duration of the project is 2 years. Rehabilitation activities will take place in summer; observations will be made throughout the year. Project Design: Rebuilding (funding will be partially covered by the IFAS). Installation and testing of equipment and instruments for observations. Recovery of operational telecommunications. Implementation: The project will be implemented under the patronage of the Regional Hydrology Centre established by officials of the NHMSs of Aral Sea Basin countries under the aegis of IFAS and the Swiss Aral Sea Mission (SASM). Expected Outcomes: • • • • • Improvement of hydrological observations in countries of the region; Development of hydrological research for global analysis; Improved calibration of global atmospheric models; Improved climate prediction capabilities; Information for analysis of the impacts/implications of climate change. The specific outputs expected from the project will be: • • • • • • An increase of the number of stations transmitting data in real or near-real time; Establishment of an operational hydro-meteorological database at national and regional levels; Integration of all NHMS of the region in an electronic communication system; Training of NHMS personnel in installation, operation, and maintenance of data transmission systems, as well as in processing and database management systems; Use of data and products to meet national and regional requirements for environmental programmes. Improvement of the means for hydro-meteorological services in the region to address socio-economic development. Risk and Sustainability: As the project will be implemented within the framework of the Regional Hydrology Centre (RHC) under aegis of IFAS and serves the economic and political interests of the five the Aral Sea Basin countries, its sustainability has been determined by agreement of governments of these countries. The rehabilitation and maintenance of stations is of benefit to all the economic sectors. Observational data from the stations will be distributed among the organizations concerned, including to global networks dealing with climate and glacier processes. Inclusion of the stations into the ARAL-HYCOS allows an opportunity to maintain stations in an operational mode and to supply them with additional equipment. 35 Indicative Budget: Activity No Rehabilitation of existing stations Training for station personnel 1 2 Output Stations in operational mode Trained staff Installation of equipment for Data transmission in operational mode transmission of data Project coordination and Efficient project management management 3 4 Total Project Cost 5 Costs (USD) 300,000 20,000 50,000 30,000 400,000 Sub-Project 4.2. Rehabilitating the operation of lowland hydrological stations Background: Development of an observational network for lowland rivers is necessary for global monitoring of river discharge, which in turn will allow the assessment of the dependence of dynamic discharge on climate change. In this case, lowland river discharge serves as an important indicator of climate change. Objective: To rehabilitate complex hydrological observations at lowland stations on the Selenge and Kherulen Rivers and exchange the observations at the global level. Location: Mongolia (Selenge and Kherulen Rivers, four hydrological posts). Duration: 2 years. Project Design: Build and rehabilitate stations. Install and test of equipment for observations. Rehabilitate the operational telecommunications network. Implementation: The project will be implemented under auspices of the NHMS of Mongolia. Expected Outcomes: • • • • • Improvement of hydrological observations in Mongolia; Development of hydrological research for global analysis; Improved calibration of global atmospheric models; Improved climate prediction capabilities; Information for analysis of the impacts/implications of climate change. The specific outputs will be: 36 • • • • An increase in the number of stations transmitting data in real or near-real time; Establishment of an operational hydro-meteorological database at national and regional levels; Training of NHMS personnel in installation, operation and maintenance of data transmission systems, as well as in processing and database management systems; Improvement of hydro-meteorological services in the region for socio-economic development. Risk and Sustainability: As the project serves the economic interests of the Central Asia countries, and information from these stations will be distributed among all interested parties, its sustainability will be determined by the support of countries in the region.. Indicative Budget: No Activity Output 1 Installation of data logger 2 Installation of an automatic Automatic system of data transmission system of data transmission through satellite and mobile communication 15,000 3 Modernization of discharge Modern water discharge measuring measuring instruments Modern system water discharge measuring instrument Repairing work at the station Hydrological station in full operational mode 21,000 4 Data logger in operation Amount (USD) 8,000 10,000 5 Training of personnel Trained staff 5,000 6 Coordination project management Efficient project management 5,000 Total For one station Total Project Cost For four stations 64,000 256,000 Sub-Project 4.3. Hydrological Data Rescue for Central Asia Background: A substantial volume of hydrological data has been collected in Central Asia to meet the requirements of operational flood forecasting, disaster prevention and preparedness, water resources management, etc. However, most of these raw, unprocessed data still exist in 37 non-electronic media and mainly in paper form. To ensure the preservation of these records at risk of being lost due to the medium’s deterioration, an efficient and sustainable data capture programme needs to be undertaken. Updated hydrological data in electronic form will greatly enhance and facilitate the exchange of hydrological data to meet the needs of regional and global climate research. All Hydrological Data will be transmitted to the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany. Objective: To convert to digital format all water-related data that can help address gaps in the existing surface data collection networks for climate variability research. The hydrological data to be included in this endeavour are those considered to have met GCOS requirements. Project Design: The project consists of the following major activities: • • • • • • • • Inventory hydrological data that need rescue. This will be done in consultation with the different water-related agencies of five countries. Assess the computer hardware and software needs of each NMHS. Assess the level of training required in each country for the proper and efficient implementation of the project. Data recovery and digitization of raw, unprocessed hydrologic data, involving: - conversion of hydrological data in strip charts into electronic form, - scanning of all valuable data recorded in field books or in paper format to preserve the original information. Quality control or validation of all digitized or scanned data prior to archiving. Data archiving using a predetermined standard format. Provision of a backup copy of the data using a CD ROM Secondary data processing through the application of hydrologic database software. Location: Regional Hydrology Center (RHC) and NMHSs Duration: 4 years Expected Outcomes: • • Updated hydrologic database by conversion of all raw, unprocessed data into electronic form for easy access. Availability of hydrologic information for regional data exchange to meet the requirements of research in the fields of hydrology and climatology. Implementation: A Regional Hydrology Centre under the guidance of EC IFAS will coordinate the efforts of all NMHSs concerned. The representative of each country will supervise the implementation of the project at the national level. Progress reports are to be submitted regularly to the designated regional coordinator for the proper monitoring of data rescue activities. The needs of the project are the following for each NHMS: - A personal computer with CD ROM and R/RW disk drives (at least one) - A digitizing tablet - An A3 scanner with software capable of producing editable output in a form that can be easily transported to any database software for secondary processing. - Digitizing software (arcInfo, arcview) - Hydrological database software (e.g., HydroPro) 38 Training on the use of the hardware (i.e., digitizer, scanner, digital camera) is necessary. This can be in the form of an in-house training program. There is a need for an extensive training on the software to be utilized to ensure the smooth and continuous implementation of the project. The training programs can be conducted by the RHC. Risk and Sustainability: To ensure the sustainability of the project, commitment must first be established on the RHC. The provision of manpower for the project may not pose any problem to the countries concerned. The problem will lie in the lack of funds to replace hardware that has deteriorated. Indicative Budget: No Activity Output 1 Installation of equipment Computer equipment Computer equipment 2 Training staff 3 Installation of equipment of data Data communication system in on-line communication regime Coordination and management Efficient project management. of the project 4 5 Cost (USD) 200,000 Trained staff Total Project Cost 60,000 10,000 30,000 300,000 Sub-Project 4.4 Public relations Unit Background: GCOS emphasizes community awareness that promotes attraction of donor organizations and decision-makers and facilitates visibility of NMHSs in each country. Objective: To organize a special subdivision at the Regional Hydrology Center of Central Asia. This subdivision will conduct activities for community awareness and prepare popular issues for newspapers, magazines, and TV broadcasts. Location: Regional Hydrology Center with Executive Committee of the International Fund for the Aral Sea (IFAS). Duration: 3 years. Project Design: • Office organization. • Establishment of relations with the press. • Holding workshops and meetings, including workshops for youth and students. 39 Implementation: The project will be implemented under the patronage of the Regional Hydrology Centre established by officials of the NHMSs of the Aral Sea basin countries under the aegis of IFAS and the Swiss Aral Sea Mission (SASM). Expected Outcomes: • • Increased awareness of decision makers and communities. Attraction of additional resources to improve NHMS activities. Risk and Sustainability: As the project will be implemented in the framework of the Regional Hydrology Centre (RHC) under aegis of IFAS, and as it serves the economic and political interests of the five the Aral Sea Basin countries, its sustainability is assured by agreement of the governments of these countries. Community Awareness reflects interests of NHMS of the five the Aral Sea basin countries. Indicative Budget: No 1 Activity Output Office organization. Acquisition of equipment – computers, Office of press of RHC scanner, fax, telephone and etc. Amount (USD) 100,000 2 Holding workshops and meeting Workshops, meetings at various levels 50,000 3 Design and establishment of the Website of RHC Website of RHC. 10,000 4 Publication preparation 10,000 5 Total Project Cost Publication in newspapers, magazines, broadcast, TV 170,000 Authors of the project: S. Myagkov and N. Sagdeev (Uzhydromet) 40 Project No 5. Adaptation of hydrological observations at very large lakes in Central Asia to the assessment of climate change Background: Large lakes are planetary water bodies where water storage is subject to minor variations from year to year. Therefore, variations in water storage in large lakes over long time intervals (tens to hundreds of years) may serve as an indicator of changes in the climate system. There are more than 100 large lakes with surface areas exceeding 100 sq. km in Central Asia. Nineteen of these lakes are very large (non including the Caspian and Aral seas) with water areas exceeding 1000 sq. km each. These particular very large lakes contain great amounts of water and play a role as climate change of indicators. However, the use of such lakes as indicators is possible only in cases of available long-term observations of the hydrological regime components vulnerable to climate variation (water levels, water temperature, ice events, evaporation, water balance). In the 1980s, when the hydrological network on the lakes in the Central Asia was most dense, hydrological regime components were observed at 57 stations installed on 18 very large lakes within the region. Dates of the start of observations differ greatly; the earliest observations were started in 1898 on Lake Chany. Many lake stations were established during the 1950s and 1960s. After the disintegration of the USSR, the lake hydrological network was reduced throughout post-Soviet territory, including on very large lakes. This was accompanied by deteriorating technical equipment at the stations. Observation programmes at many lake stations were reduced. The uniform monitoring system of hydrological observations on lakes was separated into individual national networks when the newly independent states were formed in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Operation of these networks is poorly coordinated both technically and methodologically. There is no data exchange between them. The condition of the technical equipment of lake stations in Mongolia has become worse. Creation of a modern lake network on the very large lakes in Central Asia for monitoring regional climate change will require restoration and reconstruction of observation stations, primarily on lakes in the former USSR Republics within Central Asia, in Armenia, and in Mongolia. Objectives: The main purpose of the Project is to organize a Regional Network of Lake stations on very large lakes in Central Asia for monitoring climate change (RNL-Climate) as a regional GCOS network. To achieve this purpose, the following basic objectives will be met: • • • • • Development of basic documents (RNL-Climate concept on the basis of the existing national networks and Project Implementation Plan). Restoration and reconstruction of fifteen lake stations on ten very large lakes in Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, and Russia. Assessment of the condition of historical data archives for very large lakes in the region (data available, observation periods, format of data presentation, available data bases, etc.); start of conversion of historical data archives on very large lakes (including information in routine forms) to computer formats. Establishment of the RNL-Climate data bank as a part of the International Data Centre on Hydrology of Lakes and Reservoirs (located at the State Hydrological Institute, St.Petersburg, Russian Federation ). Determination of information intended for an exchange among NMHSs in near-real time; development of regulations for this exchange and regulations for delivery of selected information to appropriate GCOS data banks at regional and international levels. 41 Location: The regional RNL-Climate network will encompass 18 very large lakes of Central Asia, from the Caucasus (45º EL) in the west to the Maritime Territory (132º EL) in the east and from Taimyr peninsula (74º NL) in the north to the Great Plain of China (30º NL) in the south. This network of very large lakes is distributed within all main climate zones of Central Asia, i.e., the arctic zone (Lake Taimyr), the temperate zone (Lakes Chany, Baikal, Balkhash, Khanka, etc.), the subtropical zone (Lakes Poyang-Hu, Dongting-Hu, Tai-Hu, etc.), and the mountain ranges of the Caucasus, Tien Shan and Nan Shan (Lakes Sevan, Issyk-Kul, and Koko-Nor). All the countries in the region with available hydrological stations on very large lakes (Armenia, China, Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Mongolia and Russia) will be invited to participate in the project implementation. Contributions of each country to the project will be different. Recovery and modification of hydrological observing systems are required primarily for the national hydrological services of those countries which were formed after the disintegration of the USSR (i.e., Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, and Russia) and Mongolia. Basic financial support is to be given to solve this particular problem. Comprehensive archives of historical hydrological information for very large lakes are available in these countries including magnetic tapes and tabular forms; therefore, these data are to be presented in a computer format and are to be used for the Project. All countries with available hydrological stations on very large lakes are to be invited to further development of the Concept, Implementation Plan, solution of problems for a mutual data exchange, and transfer of data to regional hydrological archives and global data bases. Duration: 4 years. Project Design: The Project will be implemented on national and regional levels. On the national level, the Project will be implemented through representatives of the NMHSs, who will be responsible for the organization of work in their countries, for data transmission according to regulations and reports to the regional level, for participation in the meetings on the Project, and for decision-making on design and financial problems. On the regional level, structures for the implementation of the following main objectives are to be generated: -Scientific assistance to the Project, including preparation of the Concept and Implementation Plan, as well as coordination with other projects within the regional component of the GCOS for Central Asia. -Implementation of particular events envisaged in the Implementation Plan of the Project, preparation of reports and financial documents for the whole Project, coordination of activities of the representatives of the national hydrological services. To achieve the first objective, a Scientific Coordinating Council (SCC) of the Project will be organized. It will consist of experts headed by the Chairman of the Council. The experts will be responsible for the preparation of individual sections of the Concept and Implementation Plan. The Project manager and donor organizations will be members of the Council. To achieve the second objective, a managing group headed by the Project manager will be created. Technical personnel responsible for particular items of Project implementation will be included in the group (i.e., people responsible for technical network equipment, introduction of technologies for data processing and dissemination, systems of data exchange, preparation of reports, and financial documents, etc.). The managing group will operate in close cooperation with the representatives of the countries contributing to the Project. 42 Implementation: The Project will be implemented as follows: - Preparation of fundamental conceptual scientific, methodological and technical documents determining the contents of the Project and means of implementation; - Modification of 15 lake stations on 10 very large lakes within the territories of Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Mongolia, and Russia. - Establishment of an RNL-Climate data bank as a part of the International Centre of Data on Hydrology of Lakes and Reservoirs; - Presentation of the first portion of the historical hydrological data archive for very large lakes in the region in computer format; - Organization of data exchange at close-to-real time among the Project contributors, as well as a system of data transfer to the regional GCOS archives and appropriate international organizations; - Coordination of the activities of NMHSs related to Project implementation, convening of workshops, meetings of the SCC, etc. Expected Outcomes: In accordance with the objectives of the Project, its main outcome will be the first stage of an updated regional subsystem RNL-Climate for the collection, processing, storage, and delivery of hydrological data observed on very large lakes selected as indicators of global and regional climate change. This subsystem will be an integral part of the GCOS regional observation system in the Central Asia. The expected results of individual stages of Project implementation are given below: • • • • • • The Regional RNL-Climate network will include 57 lake stations on 18 very large lakes with surface areas more than 1000 square kilometers in Armenia, China, Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Mongolia, and Russia (Table 1). Fundamental scientific and technical documents on the Project (Concept and Implementation Plan) will be produced. Lake stations will be modified (up-dated technical facilities, equipment and computers) on Lakes Ala-kol, Balkhash, Chany, Issyk-Kul, Khanka, Khar-us, Khubsugul, Sevan, Taimyr, and Uvs (15 lake stations altogether); The first stage of the RNL-Climate data bank will be established as an integral part of the International Centre of Data on Hydrology of Lakes and Reservoirs, including the results of past and current observations; The first stage of a historical data archive of hydrological observations on very large lakes of the region will be created in computer format, as an integral part of the RNLClimate data bank; Data will be exchanged among the contributors to the Project and delivered to the RNLClimate data bank, to the regional data banks of the GCOS, and to other international organizations, according to regulations. 43 Table 1 – The Regional Network of lake stations on very large lakes in Central Asia (RNLClimate) Country Armenia China Kazakhstan Kirghizia Mongolia Russia Russia, China Total Lake Sevan Dongting Hu Koko-Nor Lop-Nor Poyang-Hu Nam-Co Tai-Hu Ala-Kol Balkhash Issyk-Kul Khobsugol Khar-Us Khyargas Uvs Baikal Taimyr Chany Khanka 18 lakes Water area, sq.km 1360 6000 4220 3500 2700 2460 2210 2650 18200 6280 2770 1496 1407 3518 31500 4560 2500 4190 Total number of stations 5 Start of observation 1930 16 1930 4 4 1948 1903 4 1964 2 1 57 1898 Risk and Sustainability: Sustainability of the Project will depend on the quality and timely preparation of fundamental Project documents, appropriate financial support, timely implementation of obligations assumed by the NMHSs involved in the Project, appropriate coordination, and operational control at each stage of Project implementation. Therefore, to decrease the risk of a delay or poor quality of Project implementation or duplication in other projects, the following basic positions are to be coordinated and officially fixed before the start of the Project: - Project cost and main expense items, sources and regulations of financing, sponsors and their obligations related to Project financing; Obligations of the NMHS for Project financing, technical support, personnel, and design of the Project; Rights and responsibilities of the Project manager and his subordinates, terms of reference of the SCC; Scope and type of relations between other related global and regional projects (AralHYCOS, GTN-Hydrology, etc.). 44 Indicative Budget: N 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Activities Preparation of fundamental scientific and technical documents on the Project (Concept, Implementation Plan) by a group of experts Modification of 15 hydrological stations on very large lakes of the region Establishment of the first stage of the RNL-Climate data bank as an integral part of the International Centre of Data on Hydrology of Lakes and Reservoirs; Transfer of the historical hydrological data to computer format (first stage) Organization of the system for data collection, data exchange among contributors to the Project, and data delivery to regional and international structures of GCOS Organization of workshops and meetings; expert missions Expenses for Project coordination and management Cost (USD) 30,000 1,000 000 100,000 70,000 50,000 150,000 100,000 1,500, 000 Total Author and coordinator of the project: V.Vuglinsky (State Hydrological Institute, Roshydromet). 45 Project No 6. Glaciosphere Monitoring in Central Asia Background: The term “glaciosphere” applied to mountain regions includes all ice forms – seasonal snow cover, wind- and avalanche-formed snowfields, river ice, frazil, and underground ice. Investigation of glaciosphere components in the mountains of Central Asia shows that they can serve as reliable indicators of climate change. Stratigraphic glacier sections archive information about climatic changes of past decades, whereas moraine sedimentations contain information dating back hundreds of years. In Central Asia it is impossible to stabilize and preserve any balance between the environment, economy, or society without finding solutions to the problems of mountainous areas. The importance of the mountains to the countries of Central Asia is defined by the following factors: • • • • • Though the population in mountain regions is not numerous, mountain resources and the state of mountain ecosystems and processes in mountains directly or indirectly affect the living conditions of an overwhelming part of the population of Central Asia; Mountains are unique in Kazakhstan and in neighboring countries of Central Asia; the overwhelming amount of renewable water resources is formed in mountainous areas. For example, out of 56 km3 of surface water resources formed within the territory of Kazakhstan, 47 km3, i.e., 70 per cent occur as runoff from the mountain rivers of the south-east of the country; The problem of pure water – a vitally important problem for the countries of Central Asia – is also closely linked with mountains. This is especially true for Kazakhstan as most of its rivers (the Irtysh, Ili, Ural, and Syr Darya) originate in neighboring countries and are polluted by the time they reach Kazakhstan. In these conditions, runoff from melting ice and snow in the mountains is practically the only source of fresh water; All large rivers in Central Asia are formed in the mountains, but processes in the runoff formation areas control river runoff at a distance of hundreds or thousands of kilometers from the mountains and play a decisive role in irrigation and the economic tempo of vast valley areas; Mountain ecosystems contain unique flora and fauna that can serve as a kind of guarantor enabling preservation and restoration of biodiversity in ecologically disrupted ecosystems of non-mountain areas. Mountain systems in Central Asia are showing more and more pronounced features of degradation, which causes increasing concern. In many areas degradation is so severe that one cannot rely upon self-regulation mechanisms to maintain ecological balance. The most vivid occurrences of degradation include deforestation of mountain regions, desertification, desiccation, and pollution of the environment. Among key needs of the mountain countries of Central Asia are the following: • • • The assessment of snow and glacier resources of mountainous areas and their role in runoff formation; The assessment and prognosis of climatically-driven changes in contemporary glaciation and snow cover dynamics in the runoff formation zone; The assessment and prognosis of probable climatically-driven changes in snow and glacier resources and their role in the hydrological regime, including in regions of intensive usage of water resources. Objective: To organize monitoring of the glaciosphere for the mountains of Central Asia according to GCOS standards and requirements. 46 The monitoring programme includes: • • • • • • • • Complex observations of the changes in main glaciosphere components (glaciers, snow cover, wind- and avalanche-formed snowfields, permafrost, stony glaciers); Selection of basin characteristics for carrying out long-term monitoring of contemporary glaciation based on remote sensing technologies and periodic control using the groundbased measurements; Creation of a test site for carrying out long-term high-altitude snow measurements at mountain stations of the Institute of Geography, MES RK, in the basins of the Bolshaya and Malaya Almatinka rivers; Adaptation of ground-based methods used to measure characteristics of basic glaciosphere components (spatial location, sizes and components of glacier mass balance, dynamics of snow boundary, thickness and water equivalent of snow cover) to use by remote sensing technologies; Creation of a network of stations carrying out thermometric monitoring of seasonallyfrozen and permafrost soils and selection of several stony glaciers for long-term monitoring; Selection of typical mountain glacier basins for assessment of the glacier component of river runoff formation (Northern and Western Tien Shan, Gissaro-Altai, Pamir); Creation of a network for carrying out climatic monitoring in the glacio-nival mountain belt in Central Asia by setting up automatic meteorological stations; Installation of additional points for registering the temperature of seasonally-frozen and permafrost soils (drilling wells to a depth of not less than 20 m with mounting gradient systems for automated control of soil temperature – loggers). Project design: The long-term glaciosphere monitoring program shall include a system of observations of dynamics of the basic glaciosphere components - glaciers, snow cover and snowfields. It is reasonable to single out monitoring of underground ice as a separate project. Glaciers The central place in glaciation and snow сover monitoring in the mountains of Central Asia belongs to the system of complex observations carried out at the scientific permanent station “Tuyuksu glacier” on the northern slope of the Zailiisky Alatau (Northern Tien Shan). It is the only glaciological monitoring station where observations have not been terminated and it has been in operation since 1958. Thus, continuous observations have been carried out at the station for more than 46 years. Mass balance has been studied for more than 100 years. In addition to Tuyuksu glacier, the proposed monitoring scheme may include the following glaciers: Dzhankaut Glacier in the Caucusus, Aktru Glacier in the Altai (Russia), Shumskiy Glacier in the Dzhunghar Alatau (Kazakhstan), Karabatnak Glacier in the Northern Tien Shan, Abramov Glacier in Gissaro-Altai (Kyrgyzstan), Kalesnik Glacier in the Western Tien Shan (Uzbekistan), Fedchenko Glacier in the Pamir Mountains (Tajikistan), Potanin Glacier in Mongolian Altai (Mongolia), and Glacier No. 1 in the Eastern Tien Shan (China). Year-round (Fedchenko and Abramov Glaciers) or regular (often annual) glaciological observations have been carried out on all the above glaciers over several decades of the 20th century. These were interrupted for various reasons in the 1990s, except at Glacier No. 1 and Dzhankaut Glacier, where observations are still being made, and at Potanin Glacier, where no observations have been carried out. The monitoring program proposed in this project implies creation of an observation system based on remote sensing technologies with regular (i.e., 3-5- 47 year interval) ground-truthing of the results using data from ground-based measurements and possibly a photo-grammetric control survey of glaciosphere objects. The glaciologiocal monitoring data are to be supported by meteorological observations carried out at nearby automatic weather stations and by hydrological observations at streamflow measurement stations in the vicinity of the end of Tuyuksu Glacier. Snow cover According to the results of studies in Central Asia, more than 50 per cent of snow resources of mountainous basins (the basic runoff component) are formed at an altitude of 3000-3200 m. Unfortunately, there are no data of snow observations in this area. Therefore, this project proposes organization of snow cover observations primarily in the high-mountain belt. The main part of snow cover monitoring in the runoff-formation zone for the main rivers of Central Asia is composed of data obtained through networks of NHMSs, including observations on snowmeasuring routes. Unfortunately the network of stations carrying out regular snow-measuring observations is so rare that the results of those observations do not enable reliable determination of snow cover in the most mountainous areas. Therefore, the only way to solve this problem is to calculate the required factors. However, calculation of snowfall characteristics for the high-level belt with the high accuracy required is still an unsolvable problem. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out additional investigations of snow cover distribution and changes in high mountains. Such investigations may be based on snowfall monitoring carried out at the specially-created snow measuring test site organized at mountain stations of the Institute of Geography (Kazakhstan), i.e., at “Tuyuksu Glacier” station in the Malaya Almatinka basin and at the hydro-physical station “Bolshoye Almatinskoye Lake” in the basin of the Bolshaya Almatinka, Northern Tien Shan). It is also important to periodically record the altitude of the snow boundary by using remote sensing data for typical glacier basins in the Caucusus, Altai, Dzhunghar Alatau, Tien Shan, Gissaro-Altai, and Pamir Mountains. Underground ice The common term “underground ice” refers to the buried parts of the tongues of modern glaciers, remainders of the ice of retarded glaciers, ice formations of stony glaciers, and seasonally-frozen and permafrost soils. Currently, over 30 stations of GTN-P monitor permafrost in the mountains of Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and China. Since the 1970s, a Kazakh high-mountain laboratory of the Institute of Permafrost, Russian Academy of Science, has been carrying out observations of the temperature of seasonally-frozen and permafrost soils in the B. Almatinka Basin in the Zailiiskiy Alatau on a special test site having several wells of different depth. Unfortunately, only two wells are equipped with a system of automatic temperature registration – loggers. The other wells, equipped earlier with thermal resistors, need reconstruction and replacement of temperature sensors. Meteorology/Hydrology To support glaciological observations by meteorological observations, it is necessary: to provide Tuyuksu glacier station with a set of modern equipment needed to carry out meteorological observations; to set up automatic meteorological stations in the vicinity of Glaciers Dzhankaut, Aktru, Tuyuksu, Shumskiy, Abramov, Karabatkak, Potanin, and Glacier No. 1 and provide for faultless operation. 48 To monitor the runoff from the glacier basin and to evaluate the contribution of these glaciers’ runoff, it is necessary to set up a hydrological point in the vicinity of the end of Tuyuksu tongue and, if possible, to equip it with modern equipment for runoff control. Location: Glaciers It is proposed to include 10 glaciers in the glaciosphere monitoring system for Central Asia: - Dzhankaut Glacier on the Caucasus and Aktru Glacier in the Altai Mountins (Russia); Tuyuksu Glacier in Zailiiskiy Alatau (Northern Tien Shan) and Shumskoy Glacier in Dzhungar Alatau (Kazakhstan); Karabtkak Glacier in Terskey Alatoo (Northern Tien Shan) and Abramov glacier in Gissaro-Alai (Kyrgyzstan); - Kalesnik Glacier in Western Tien Shan (Uzbekistan); - Fedchenko Glacier in the Pamir Mountains (Tajikistan); - Potanin Glacier in Mongolian Altai (Mongolia); Glacier No. 1 in the basin of the Dasigou river, Eastern Tien Shan (China). Snow cover It is possible to organize monitoring of seasonal snow-boundary dynamics based on remote sensing data for all altitudes and not only for mountain basins where the above control glaciers are located, but also in the neighboring mountainous regions. Detailed snow cover monitoring with pilot investigations may be carried out at a specially created test site for snow observations in the vicinity of stations of the Institute of Geography, in the high-mountain part of the Malaya and Bolshaya Almatinka Basins on the northern slope of Zailiiskiy Atatyau (northern Tien Shan). Underground ice In order to evaluate space-temporal temperature regime changes of permafrost soils in the mountains of the region, it is planned to undertake the following steps: - to extend the existing network of temperature monitoring of seasonally-frozen and permafrost soils in the Zailiiskiy Alatau by setting up additional observation stations, the main ones of which will be 4 new wells of a depth up to 20m drilled in the vicinity of Tuyuksu Glacier in the Malaya Almatinka Basin, Gorodetsky Glacier, and Zhasalykezen Pass in the Basin of the Bolshaya Almatinka, with modern systems of automated soil temperature control installed in the wells; - to set up similar monitoring stations in the vicinity of Dzhankaut Glacier in the Caucasus and Aktru Glacier in the Altai Mountains, and to establish stations at two acting weather stations in Central and Western Tien Shan and in the Eastern Pamirs. With the realization of the above plan, the temperature monitoring network of seasonally-frozen and permafrost soils will consist of 9 wells covering a wide area from the Caucasus in the west, Pamirs in the south and the Altai Mountains in the east and north. It will enable the characteristics of regional temperature changes in permafrost and its reaction to climate change to be studied. 49 Duration: The glacioshpere monitoring programme will be developed over 3 years. This monitoring may operate for a longer time if it receives adequate financial and organizational support. Expected outcomes: Realization of the program will enable: • • • • • Factual information about the contemporary dynamics of the main glaciosphere components of Central Asian mountains to be obtained; Additional information about the glaciosphere-climate system and improved runoff formation models that will enable estimates of probable changes in regional water resources in the next few decades; Estimates of the reaction of glaciosphere components (glaciers, permafrost, and other forms of underground ice) on climate change; Evaluation of the role of water resulting from underground ice melting (contained in permafrost) in the runoff formation zone, and, based on these data, introduction of corrections in probable climatically-driven changes in water resources in Central Asia in the foreseeable future; Evaluation of contemporary dynamics of snow-ice resources and refinement of models interaction between snow cover and the climate and models of runoff formation. The realization of the above plan of actions, with further glaciosphere monitoring, will make a considerable contribution to the system of national and regional planning of adaptation to climate change, especially the system of water resources management at national and regional levels. Risk and sustainability: Successful realization of the project primarily depends on funding of planned work and support of the project by governments of member countries on the basis of accepting corresponding national obligations and taking into account national and regional interests. If adequate financial support is provided, the stability of glaciosphere monitoring in the mountains of Central Asia will only depend on its execution, and thus its realization may be guaranteed. Increased stability of research activities in the program could be provided by involvement of the project executors in the development of international programs (projects) on climate, hydrology, glaciology, geocryology, and sustainable development. One of the main conditions of successful program realization is proper coordination of activities among national groups and access of all project participants to the data generated by NMHSs. Indicative budget: Assessment of the current situation Assessment of the existing system of observations and generalization of the data for the main component of glaciosphere dynamics collected over the last decades should be undertaken at the expense of organizations participating in the project. Workshops Organization of annual workshops with participation of the main executors aimed at coordination of the program of observations, methods of measurement of studied glaciosphere characteristics, and discussion of the results obtained would promote successful realization of the program. To make such workshops efficient, 2-3 representatives from the working groups of 50 each country, that is at least 12-15 scientists and 2-3 WMO representatives (experts) should take part in such seminars. The total cost of such seminars amounts to USD 80,000. In order to approve the results of observations, it would be desirable to fund participation of at least one project executor from each country every year in international symposia, conferences, and seminars on the problems similar to the problems of the project. The total expenditures on this item are 1,500 USD per participant per year, for a total sum for three years of 22,500 USD. Thus, the total sum of expenditures on organization of workshops and participation of the main executors in international conferences amounts to 102,500 USD. Glaciers The program of all-year-round glacier monitoring at «Tuyuksu Glacier” station requires 25,000 USD per year, or total expenditures for the three-year program of 75,000 USD. To carry out remote sensing of other controlled glaciers (Aktru in the Altai Mountains, Dzhankaut in the Caucasus, Shumskoy in the Dzhungat Aslatau, Karabatnak in the Northern Tien Shan, Kalesnik in the Western Tien Shan, Abramov in Gissaro-Alai, Fedchenko in the Pamir Mountains, Potanin in Mongolian Altai, and Glacier No. 1 in the Eastern Tien Shan) with periodic correction of the results by using ground-based observations, will require 15,000 USD per year for each glacier, or a sum of 405,000 USD for three years. Thus, total expenditure on the program of glacier monitoring amounts to 540,000 USD for 3 years. In addition to carrying out monitoring of glaciers and ice boundary dynamics in the controlled basins, it is necessary to provide financing of 20,000 USD for each working group of the five countries participating in the project. This sum is needed to purchase special software for processing and analysis of satellite-based information and corresponding computer equipment, with a possibility of its further modernization. Total expenditure on the above purposes for five working groups amount to not less than 300,000 USD for the three years. Meteorology/Hydrology In order to support the system of glaciosphere observation with data on meteorological observations, it is necessary to set up at least 8 automatic weather stations in the vicinity of the controlled glaciers. Each station will cost 20,000 USD to install, plus a maintenance cost of 5,000 USD per year. The total sum of amounts to USD 280,000. In order to provide the hydrological-control contribution of the glacier component to river runoff, it is necessary to equip hydrological stations with special equipment for measuring runoff from the Tuyuksu Basin in Zailiiskiy Alatau Mountains. The estimated amount needed for this purpose amounts to USD 150,000. Thus, the total sum of investment expenditure for the glaciosphere monitoring program in Central Asia is USD 1,097,500. 51 The budget of the project may be presented in the following generalized table: No Purpose 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 Glacier monitoring Providing all-year-round monitoring on the “Tuyuksu glacier” station Modern devices and equipment for the Tuyuksu glacier station Monitoring of Aktru, Dzhankaut (Russia), Shumskoy glacier (Kazakhstan), Karabatkak, Abramov glacier (Kyrgyzstan), Kalesnik glacier (Uzbekistan), Fedchenko glacier (Tajikistan), Potanin glacier (Mongolia), and Glacier No. 1 (China) glaciers. Monitoring of high-level snowfall at stationary stations in the Malaya and Bolshaya Almatinka Basins Climate monitoring Installation of 8 automatic weather stations Operational expenses for the 8 weather stations Hydrological support for glaciosphere monitoring (installation of a hydrological station at the end of Tuyuksu Glacier) Expenditure for organization of workshops and participation of the members of project team in the international conferences/workshops 2 3 3.1 3.2 4 5 Total Cost (USD) 540,000 75,000 60,000 405,000 25,000 280,000 160,000 120,000 150,000 102,500 1,097,500 Organizational support: Kazakhstan: Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Education and Science, Republic of Kazakhstan Russian Federation: Institute of Geography (RAS, Moscow) Department of geography of Tomsk University (Tomsk) Mountain geocryological laboratory of the Institute of Permafrost Studies, Siberian Branch, RAS (Almaty, Kazakhstan) Kyrgyzstan: Department of Geography of the Institute of Geographical Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic Hydro-Meteorological Service Uzbekistan: Research Hydro-Meteorological Institute, Uzhydromet Tajikistan: Hydro-Meteorological Service Institute of Water and Power-generation Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan. Author of the project: I. Severskyi (Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Education and Science, Republic of Kazakhstan) 52 Project No 7. Permafrost Warming and Ground Ice as a Potential Freshwater Source in the Arid Regions of Central Asia Background: Atmospheric warming is predicted to be greater in polar regions than at lower latitudes and more pronounced at high altitudes than in lowlands. Present atmospheric warming particularly affects terrestrial systems where surface and sub-surface ice are involved. During the past few decades, most glaciers in the Central Asia have experienced a substantial lost of their mass. The area of Zailiysky Alatau Range (Northern Tien Shan) glaciers has been reduced by 29.2 percent, and glaciers were retreating by 6-8 m per year during 1955-1990 (Vilesov & Uvarov, 2001). A negative glacier net mass balance is typical for Central Asian glaciers and has exceeded -300 kg m-2 year-1 (Aizen et al., 1997). During some years the net mass balance has been as low as -515 kg m-2 year-1 (Dikih, 1997). Rough estimates show that glaciers have lost up to 27 percent of their mass over the Tien Shan Mountains. The largest glacier recession occurs in the northern and central Tien Shan of Central Asia. The Central Asian region is the largest area of alpine permafrost in the world. The Central Asian mountains are one of the major sources of fresh water for surface runoff, groundwater recharge, hydropower plants, community water supply, agriculture, urban industry, and wildlife habitat in this area. The hydrological systems of the Tien Shan watersheds are also different from those of other mountain ranges, because they are closed drainage basins, and any changes in the water cycle affect the water balances of the Aral, Balkhash and Issik-Kul Lakes and the Tarim River basin. The closed drainage basins of the Tien Shan Mountains, the world’s largest, receive and retain annually about 10 percent of the external atmospheric moisture transferred over Central Asia (Shulc, 1965). Climatic processes during the 20th century and especially during the last two decades have had a great influence on the contemporary thermal state of permafrost. During the last 30 years geothermal observations in the Tien Shan, western Mongolian sector of the Altai Mountains, and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau indicate permafrost warming by 0.2-0.3°C for undisturbed systems and up to 0.6°C of those affected by human activities. In the northern Tien Shan and Mongolian Altai Mountains the average active-layer thickness has increased by 25 percent in comparison with the early 1970s (Marchenko, 1999, 2002, 2003; Jin et al., 2000; Sharkhuu, 2003). Central Asia is included in the water-stressed areas where projected climate change could further decrease stream flow and groundwater recharge (IPCC, II, 2001). The Tien Shan and Altai Mountains, which hold a vast snow pack, glaciers, and permafrost, constitute the main source of fresh water shared by seven countries: Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, and China. Mountain permafrost and associated periglacial landforms contain large quantities of stored fresh water in the form of ice. The moraines, rock glaciers and other coarse blocky material have especially high ice content (40-90% by volume). According to Vilesov and Belova (1984), the total volume of surface ice over the Tien Shan Mountains is about 423 km3. The ground ice volume is estimated about 320 km3, and this area includes rock glaciers, ice-rich moraines and coarse blocky debris (Gorbunov & Ermolin, 1981). For comparison in the Alps the ground ice volume is about 6 km3 within the altitudinal range of 2600-3000 m ASL (Barch, 1996). The approximate evaluation shows that the quantity of water stored in ground ice in the Tien Shan is comparable with the volume of modern glaciers in the same region. Under continuing warming and glacier recession, the ground ice could increase future water supply, and the melt waters from permafrost could become an increasingly important source in the near future. 53 The GTOS has identified permafrost as one of the key indicators of climate change (WMO, 1997) and initiated permafrost monitoring through the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTNP) that is managed by the International Permafrost Association (Burgess et al., 2001, 2002; http://www.gtnp.org). Permafrost measurements are particularly important for determining the long-term terrestrial response to surface climate change. Permafrost monitoring for climatechange study purposes includes measurements of temperature profiles in perennially frozen ground and of the thickness and temperature of the overlying seasonally thawing and freezing soil. For these purposes a sufficient number of permafrost sites are required to monitor variations in active layer conditions and ground temperatures in near-surface and deep boreholes in major permafrost regions of the world. Analyses of long-term international permafrost observations in the Northern Hemisphere (Brown et al., 2000) have shown that climate warming has had a profound effect on active-layer thickness in middle latitude sites where high-altitudinal permafrost exists. While the increase in permafrost temperature may change many of its physical properties, the major threshold occurs when permafrost starts to thaw from its top down. The most significant impacts on permafrost thermal states will be observed near the lower boundary of alpine permafrost, the region where the frozen ground is very sensitive to changes in the surface energy balance (Harris and Haeberli, 2003). In high-mountain regions, near-surface permafrost degradation will probably accompany terrain disturbances and may lead to slope instability and permafrost-related hazards (landslides, thermokarst, mudflows). Many permafrost areas in Central Asia have not been mapped, or if they have been, the maps are often not current, available only in hardcopy and possibly not available in a commonly used coordinate system/datum. At present, except for the small-scale IPA permafrost map (Brown et al. 1997), there is no uniform map of Central Asian permafrost conditions. Therefore, it is very important to accurately map permafrost and ground ice distribution and to estimate their role in water resources for this region. Objectives: The main goal of the proposed research is to collect and analyze long-term instrumental observational data in order to assess the interaction between glacier recession, permafrost warming, and runoff, and to assess the volume of ground ice and permafrost meltwater as a potential source of fresh water contributing to the water cycle over the Pamir, Tien Shan, and Alatai Mountains using both terrestrial and remote sensing methods. For this purpose we shall implement following tasks: • • • Collect, organize and analyze existing data on air temperature, precipitation, snow pack, runoff, permafrost, and seasonally frozen ground borehole temperatures, active layer thickness, and ground ice content. Continue long-term permafrost monitoring and determine the impact of global warming on the sensitive environment of mid-latitude alpine permafrost near its lower boundaries. Remeasure temperatures in boreholes that were drilled up to 30 years ago with modern techniques, assess recent detailed thermal changes, and predict the potential future geothermal impacts of climate warming in the Pamir, Tien Shan and Altai Mountains. Establish new sites (without borehole drilling process) for monitoring the near-surface ground (up to 5 m in depth) temperature regime at different altitudes and landscapes for further model calibration and permafrost temperature regime computation. Assess the volume of ground ice as a potential source of fresh water (and a contribution of meltwater from permafrost) to runoff over the Tien Shan and Alatai Mountains, using both terrestrial (radar, geomorphologic, geocryological) and remote sensing (aerial and satellite images) methods. 54 • • Incorporate the Tien Shan and Altai borehole network into GIS and establish it as a part of the WMO/FAO/IPA GTN-P database. Initiate compilation of a regional map of mountain permafrost and ground ice conditions in the mountain areas of Central Asia on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) base map, with potential to incorporate it into the IPA circum-Arctic map. Location: For detailed research of the Tien Shan mountain permafrost and periglacial environment we selected three data-rich basins with different morphological, glaciological and periglacial characteristics. The investigated area encompasses two river basins in the central part of the Zailiysky Alatau Range (Northern Tien Shan) and the Kumtor Valley in the Inner Tien Shan. Northern Tien Shan. The permafrost area to be investigated in the Northern Tien Shan is located within two river basins (Bolshaya and Malaya Almatinka) and covers about 670 km2 within the altitudinal range 2000-4400 m. Modern glaciers occupy a total area of 28.29 km2 (Vilesov & Uvarov, 2001). There are five weather stations (operated since 1930s) at the different altitudinal levels within the limits of this territory. One glaciological and two permafrost research stations are located within these basins. Continuous observations of the mass balance of the most representative glaciers (Tuyuksu Glacier) in the northern Tien Shan have been carried out since 1958. Permafrost investigations have been carried out during the last 30 years within selected area using a variety of methods including measurements of ground and spring water temperatures, DC resistivity soundings, Bottom Temperature of Snow (BTS) measurements, etc. There are 14 thermometric boreholes with depths ranging from 3 m to 300 m in different landscape settings and at varying altitudes. It is necessary to note that some boreholes are not available for temperature measurements now and their recovery is required. Detailed information about cryogenic structures was made available during deep excavations (up to 10 m) near one of the research stations (3336 m). Inner Tien Shan. Our permafrost investigations in the Inner Tien Shan during 1985-92 resulted in permafrost temperature active-layer thickness records, cryogenic structures of frozen ground descriptions, permafrost, ground ice, and periglacial landform distribution maps (Gorbunov et al., 1986). Ground temperature measurements were carried out in 20 boreholes in the AkShiyrak massif (between 4000 and 4200 m), and in more than 25 boreholes in the Kumtor valley (between 3560 and 3790 m) near the ‘Tien Shan’ weather station (3614 m). Permafrost temperatures increased by 0.1°C from 1985 to 1992, both in the valley and the mountain massif. There were no systematic long-term active layer measurements. Altai. In the Altai Mountains, many boreholes were drilled for geotechnical or resource exploration purposes in the 1960s and later, and some of them were used as short-term ground temperature measurements sites. An initial survey identified about 2 boreholes in the Chuya River Valley that could be used for thermometric measurements and considered a potential contribution to the GTN-P project. In addition, part of the permafrost data for the Altai Mountain area, collected during 1965-1972, (borehole temperatures, permafrost thickness, frozen ground structure, etc.) were used for compilation of the Morphology and Permafrost Temperature Map of Northeast and South Siberia (scale 1:2,500,000), compiled under the direction of I. A. Nekrasov (1976). At present, the possibility exists to recompile the existing permafrost data for the entire Altai Mountain region with much higher resolution, to assess recent changes in permafrost through the replicated measurements of existing boreholes, and to produce a more detailed permafrost map for this region employing GIS technology. 55 Pamir. Markansu River Valley, south slope of Zaalaysky Mountain Range and Karakul Lake depression. Geocryological investigations were carried out in 1976, 1977, and 1979 by the staff members of Kazakhstan Permafrost Laboratory of the Permafrost Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The main subjects of research were underground ice and permafrost. Duration: 3 years, with potential continuation. Project design: It is proposed to develop the project in the following directions: • It is planned to involve a limited but representative number of boreholes in which temperature logging equipment will be installed and previously interrupted ground temperature observations will be re-established. These selected borehole observations will establish a major new component to the GTN-P with the potential to monitor future changes in permafrost temperatures. The measurements will contribute to the WMO/FAO GCOS initiative as part of the International Polar Year (2007-2008) and proposed IPA borehole initiative that is being planned as the IPA/IPY project Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP). Borehole sites will be selected on the basis of (a) the current status of the borehole; (b) information available on subsurface lithology; (c) availability of previous temperature records and (d) site conditions with respect to access, maintenance and suitability for long-term monitoring. New sites will be established (without expensive borehole drilling) for monitoring the near-surface (up to 5 m in depth) ground temperature regime at different altitudes and landscapes. It is also proposed to install the loggers within the north- and south-facing slopes, which have a sharp distinction in surface energy balance. The proposed data set will serve as a baseline in the future to establish the rate of change of near-surface permafrost temperatures; to lower boundaries of permafrost distribution in the high mountain regions; and to validate models, climatic scenarios, and temperature reanalysis approaches. • The radar method will be applied to ground ice volume estimation within the different types of ice-saturated landforms, such as rock glaciers, moraines, buried ice, and coarse debris. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) is successfully applied in high-resolution subsurface imaging to investigate targets buried at depths ranging from within the first 50 centimeters to approximately 100 meters for geological materials in favorable conditions and to approximately 4 km in ice. Innovative MF techniques derived from seismic exploration technologies allow improvement of imaging and characterization of subsurface materials. • Study of the effects of climate change on permafrost will be accomplished through observations in changes of surface, ground, and air temperatures, active-layer thickness, solid and liquid precipitation, and runoff. To assess runoff from permafrost, hydrologic and meteorological data obtained from three specially equipped sites located in areas without glaciers and data from different permafrost distribution types and ground properties will be used. Data on runoff from permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, water chemistry, soil thermal conditions, and local meteorological conditions will also be used. Surface conditions will be characterized through physical measurements of ground temperature and moisture content, temperature of melting water, active layer thickness, precipitation, evaporation, condensation (inside of coarse debris) and air temperature. Statistical methods of time series analysis will be used to assess the temporal trends in the air and ground temperature, precipitation, and runoff records. • The topographic, geologic and landscape maps of the investigated areas will be digitized and incorporated into the existing GIS. Vegetation and snow cover also will be represented in GIS for further simulation needs. The regional thematic maps will be 56 • available for compilation of a permafrost and ground ice distribution map. The Central Asia Digital Elevation Model (DEM) will apply for mountain permafrost and ground ice condition mapping. ASTER images covering an area of 60x60 km, with a pixel size of 15 m for 3 bands, will be used for incorporation into the GIS for further geomorphic, landform and ground ice mapping. Numerical freeze/thaw modeling will be applied to simulate the permafrost thermal state and active layer freezing and thawing process (Marchenko, 2001, 2003; Romanovsky et al., 2002; Sergueev et al., 2003). The model will be calibrated with existing borehole data and data obtained from new sites for specific arid and semiarid climatic conditions of intra-continental mountains. The Permafrost Group of the University of Alaska has been working during the last few years on the accomplishment, verification, and application of numerical models to permafrost thermal state estimation. The ground temperature modeling allows us to reduce the project budget and avoid a very expensive process of new borehole drilling. Implementation: Coordination meetings with representative persons of the Kazakhstan Alpine Permafrost Laboratory (KazAPL), Institutie of Geography (Kazakhstan), University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), and Exploration Geophysics Group of the University of Trieste (EGGUT) will take place annually. Immediately following the start of the project, an initial meeting will discuss implementation details and the work program for the first field season, and progress within each specified task will be reported and discussed in successive coordination meetings. Forward planning for the next stages in fieldwork, laboratory analysis, and research synthesis will, in addition, form a critical part of coordination meetings. Compiling and submission of initial data sets to the WMO/FAO/IPA GTN-P will be done annually. Task Leaders will submit written reports to the GCOS Secretariat before each coordination meeting. This project will also contribute to the International Permafrost Association Working Group ‘Mapping and Modeling of Mountain Permafrost’. Permafrost mapping and thermal monitoring is of major international interest, and forms a significant theme at the annual Conference on Earth Cryosphere (Russia) and AGU Fall Meetings (USA). Papers based on the outcome of the present GCOS proposal will be presented at AGU and other international conferences. These presentations will form the basis for scientific papers involving collaboration of team members, to be published in scientific journals. First Year. Tien Shan. o The work program for the first field season and planning for the next stages in fieldwork. Teamwork at the Tien Shan GTN-P site locations, data collection, inspection and remeasurement of existing boreholes; data logger installation. o Establishment of new sites for ground temperature monitoring with data loggers and runoff from permafrost measurements. o Scanning of ice-saturated landforms by GPR. o Elaboration of details for the work program for the second year of the project; GIS development and incorporation of the database into the GIS-project; report to GCOS. Second Year. Tien Shan. Teamwork at the Tien Shan GTN-P site location, download data from loggers and ollection additional data within the investigated areas. 57 Altai. o Fieldwork at the Altai site locations; data collection, inspection and re-measurement of existing boreholes; data logger installation. o Establishment of new sites for ground temperature monitoring with data loggers and runoff from permafrost measurements. o Scanning of ice-saturated landforms by GPR. o Chemical analysis of water samples. o GIS-project development; incorporation of ASTER images into the GIS-project. Pamirs. o Establishment of new sites for ground temperature monitoring with data loggers. o Analysis of data obtained; report of major findings. Third Year. Tien Shan, Altai and Pamir. o Teamwork within Pamir, Tien Shan and Altai mountains, data collection and analyzing. o GIS-project development. o Final Report to GCOS, preparation of publications. Expected outcomes: • Recent changes in permafrost thermal regime in the Central Asian Mountains will be assessed in a quantitative manner. This knowledge will allow development of a reliable glacier-permafrost related hazard assessment and an analysis of the vulnerability of high mountain landscapes to climate change within the Central Asian region. The Central Asian permafrost-monitoring network will be incorporated into a GIS and established as a part of the GTN-P database. Collected historical data will greatly aid efforts to understand the effects of global warming on regional climate, glaciation, permafrost, and water resources. • The basic features of interaction between permafrost and runoff in the Pamir, Tien Shan and Altai Mountain areas will be revealed. Assessment of ground-ice volume and its role in the future water supply provides an opportunity to elaborate a reliable plan for adaptation to future water-stressed problems of Central Asia. • A working draft of a permafrost and ground-ice condition map over the Pamir, Tien Shan and Altai Mountains, with potential to incorporate it into the IPA circum-Arctic map will be established. The developed GIS will have a practical importance for a linkage to climate change and hazard assessment for the high-mountain area of Kazakhstan and adjacent territories of Central Asia. Risk and sustainability: Participation in the project of secondary collaborators, such as the Institute of Earth Cryosphere (IEC) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Exploration Geophysics Group of the University of Trieste (EGGUT), and the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) is strongly recommended. The success of the proposed project highly depends on the support of international funds, and effort and activities of partners KazAPL, IEC, EGGUT, and the UAF. It is proposed to realize the ground ice investigation together with the Exploration Geophysics Group of the University of Trieste (lead by Prof. M. Pipan), which has been working for the last ten years on implementation, test, and application of multi-fold Ground Penetrating Radar (MF GPR) methods for subsurface exploration (it is among the few groups in the world engaged in this research topic). The know-how acquired through extensive and successful exploration programmes worldwide will be exploited in the framework of the present permafrost 58 exploration project, and dedicated hardware and software tools will be implemented to cope with the peculiar subsurface conditions of the study area. Participation in the Project of Dr. G. Gravis, (IEC) is also recommended. Dr. Gravis is wellknown expert on Russian and Mongolian Altai mountain permafrost. He took a part in the Russian and Mongolian Altai expeditions and knows the Altai region very well. Dr. Gravis is the author of the several permafrost maps of Southern Siberia, the Altai territory, and Mongolia. The IEC Secondary Collaborator efforts will include: analysis and preparation of existing permafrost data for the Altai region, participation in elaborating the detailed legend for the future geocryological map, and permafrost distribution mapping. Sustainability will highly depend on the selection of appropriate leaders. Ideally, the research team should consist of experts in the field of geocryology, ground temperature measurement techniques, data analysis, mathematical simulation, mapping, and GIS technologies. Task Leaders will responsible for the development of the project. Active coordinating bodies should be designated at international and national levels. Collaboration is recommended with other international programs and working groups, such as the WRCP Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project, the Circumarctic Environmental Observatories Network (CEON), the International Polar Year 2007-2008, the IPA/IPY Thermal State of Permafrost project, and IPA Working Groups (Permafrost and Climate, Mapping and Modeling of Mountain Permafrost, and Model Intercomparison). Indicative budget: Materials, Equipment and Services Costs USD 1. GIS Software, notebook for downloading data during the field trips, GPS 2. Optic StowAway Onset Computer Corporation data loggers, HOBO U12 Stainless Temperature Loggers,15-Channel HOBO Weather Stations, soil moisture and thermal sensors 3. ASTER satellite images and aerial photos, analysis and GIS development 4. Site establishment for temperature observation, runoff from permafrost measurements and water sampling, and hydro chemical analysis of water samples 5. Existing borehole recovery and maintenance of borehole network (purchasing and changing batteries for data loggers etc.) Travel Domestic Transportation (includes Per Diem and expedition expenses) International Transportation (includes Per Diem) Other Travel Expenses (e.g. visa fees, conference registration fees, etc.) Total costs of the project 9,000 50,000 60,000 15,000 25,000 20,000 60,000 1,000. 240,000 Authors of the project: S. Marchenko (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks), A. Medeu (Institute of Geography, Ministry of Education and Science Republic of Kazakhstan), A. Gorbunov (Kazakhstan Alpine Permafrost Laboratory, Permafrost Institute, Russian Academy of Science) 59 Satellite-based observations Project No 8. Improving satellite products for climate applications in Central Asia Data from operational meteorological satellites (since 1970) and from Background: oceanographic satellites has been used since 1984 by the Federal Agency for Hydrometeorology and Monitoring of the Environment of the Russian Federation (Roshydromet) for the diagnostic and forecasting tasks of hydrometeorological services in support of scientific, socio-economic, and other activities in Russia. As the observational network density is decreasing (both for ground and for ocean observations), satellite data becomes the most regular kind of meteorological, hydrological, and oceanographic observations. Roshydromet has the most advanced ground complex of satellite data receiving, processing, and distribution centers, including three federal scientific and research centers (SRCs) (SRC Planeta (located Moscow, Obninsk, Dolgoprudny), the West-Siberian Centre (in Novosibirsk), and the FarEastern Center (in Khabarovsk)) and a network of more than 60 autonomous data receiving stations located over Russia. The main centre for satellite data reception, processing, archiving, and distribution is SRC Planeta, which has the largest operational and archiving resources. SRC Planeta receives and processes daily more than 50 GB of satellite data. Its archive contains meteorological, oceanographic and environmental satellite data dating back to 1979. The satellite data archive is used for regional and global climate change research. During recent years, SRC Planeta has conducted the following projects on satellite data application: ice-condition mapping on seas, lakes and rivers; vegetation monitoring and snow and ice coverage; and long-term environmental changes. Satellite information products based on SRC Planeta technologies have significantly increased in the last few years. For example, last year a new technology for all-weather mapping of meteorological parameters was developed based on data from NOAA satellites. It allows the study of snow and ice coverage on Russian seas, precipitation (with estimation of medium and maximum intensity), and thunderstorm intensity. Since 1997 SRC Planeta has successfully automated satellite data receiving, processing, and distribution and the system for providing operational access to satellite data via the Internet. Unfortunately, many users who need such data have no access to the Internet or do not receive the full amount of data due to the low speed of communication channels. The enhancement of satellite data applications for Central Asia will be of great value. Most regional economic activities depend on climate conditions. Many GCOS regional tasks could be effectively undertaken through the application of satellite data and products for climate purposes. Objective: The goal of this project is to estimate environmental changes on the basis of the most up-to-date technologies for receiving, processing, and distribution of real-time and archived satellite data. The following tasks are to be undertaken in this project: • • • • Estimation of seasonal and long-term changes of soil-vegetation cover on the test areas of Kazakhstan, Kyrghyzia, Mongolia, and the arid zones of southern Russia on the basis of years satellite and ground data sequences. Estimation of changes in the long-term condition of seas and large lakes in Central Asia (Caspian Sea, Aral Sea, Lake Balkhash, Lake Issyk-Kul’) on the basis of years of satellite and ground data sequences. Development of dedicated satellite databases and processing products and also of ground observation data for selected tasks. Upgrade satellite data delivery to end-users. 60 • • Exchange satellite and ground data between project participants. Increase personnel skills in processing and application of satellite data. Duration: 3-4 years. Location: Russia, the countries of Central Asia. Kazakhstan, and Mongolia require the satellite data. NMHSs of Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic, Expected results: • Estimation of long-term environmental and regional climate changes on the basis of archived and operational satellite data. • Development of an effective and reliable system of satellite data distribution. • Regular use of satellite data products by regional users. Risk and sustainability: The sustainability of the project depends on obtaining funding for the creation and support of particularized satellite data archives, upgrading and supporting satellite data delivery means, raising personnel skills, etc. Indicative budget: № Amount(USD) p/year Expense items 1. Creation and support of particularized archives and databases of satellite information products for selected regions. 50,000 2. Data processing and delivery of satellite products regional users. 25,000 3. Analysis of long-term environmental changes of selected regions. 25,000 Total 100,000 Author of the project: T. Burtseva (SRC Planeta, Roshydromet) 61 5. CONCLUDING REMARKS This Regional GCOS Action Plan has reviewed the status of GCOS implementation in Central Asia. It has identified areas where improvements are needed in observing programs and networks, and in related data management, data access, and coordination. It has suggested strategies to address these needs, along with specific projects to give practical effect to the strategies. The enhancements proposed in the specific plans will help to ensure availability of the vital observational records needed to underpin climate modeling, prediction, and impact assessment; to plan for natural disaster mitigation and adaptation to climate change, climate variability, and climate extremes; and to address sustainable development. As implementation of this Regional Action Plan proceeds, the vital importance of systematic observation of the climate system must continually be emphasized to national governments, the public at large, and external donors. Demonstrating the many important applications of these data will assist in generating the support needed to sustain observational programs and ensure the long-term continuity and accessibility of vital climate records. It is hoped that this Action Plan will prove to be an effective tool in focusing regional energies on meeting GCOS and related national requirements and in gaining the support of governments and donors for the proposed initiatives. REFERENCES GCOS Implementation Strategy: Implementing GCOS in the New Millennium, GCOS-67 (WMO/TD No.1072) Guide to the GCOS Surface and Upper-Air Networks: GSN and GUAN GCOS-73 (WMO/TD No. 1106) Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate, GCOS-82 (WMO/TD No.1143) Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC, GCOS-92 (WMO/TD No.1244) Report of the GCOS Regional Workshop for Central Asia on Improving Observing Systems for Climate, GCOS-94 (WMO/TD No. 1248), Almaty, Kazakhstan, 24-26 May 2004 62 APPENDIX A GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles Effective monitoring systems for climate should adhere to the following principles*: 1. The impact of new systems or changes to existing systems should be assessed prior to implementation. 2. A suitable period of overlap for new and old observing systems is required. 3. The details and history of local conditions, instruments, operating procedures, data processing algorithms and other factors pertinent to interpreting data (i.e., metadata) should be documented and treated with the same care as the data themselves. 4. The quality and homogeneity of data should be regularly assessed as a part of routine operations. 5. Consideration of the needs for environmental and climate-monitoring products and assessments, such as IPCC assessments, should be integrated into national, regional and global observing priorities. 6. Operation of historically uninterrupted stations and observing systems should be maintained. 7. High priority for additional observations should be focused on data-poor regions, poorlyobserved parameters, regions sensitive to change, and key measurements with inadequate temporal resolution. 8. Long-term requirements, including appropriate sampling frequencies, should be specified to network designers, operators and instrument engineers at the outset of system design and implementation. 9. The conversion of research observing systems to long-term operations in a carefullyplanned manner should be promoted. 10. Data management systems that facilitate access, use and interpretation of data and products should be included as essential elements of climate monitoring systems. Furthermore, operators of satellite systems for monitoring climate need to: (a) Take steps to make radiance calibration, calibration-monitoring and satellite-to-satellite cross-calibration of the full operational constellation a part of the operational satellite system; and (b) Take steps to sample the Earth system in such a way that climate-relevant (diurnal, seasonal, and long-term interannual) changes can be resolved. Thus satellite systems for climate monitoring should adhere to the following specific principles: 63 11. Constant sampling within the diurnal cycle (minimizing the effects of orbital decay and orbit drift) should be maintained. 12. A suitable period of overlap for new and old satellite systems should be ensured for a period adequate to determine inter-satellite biases and maintain the homogeneity and consistency of time-series observations. …/2 13. Continuity of satellite measurements (i.e. elimination of gaps in the long-term record) through appropriate launch and orbital strategies should be ensured. 14. Rigorous pre-launch instrument characterization and calibration, including radiance confirmation against an international radiance scale provided by a national metrology institute, should be ensured. 15. On-board calibration adequate for climate system observations should be ensured and associated instrument characteristics monitored. 16. Operational production of priority climate products should be sustained and peer-reviewed new products should be introduced as appropriate. 17. Data systems needed to facilitate user access to climate products, metadata and raw data, including key data for delayed-mode analysis, should be established and maintained. 18. Use of functioning baseline instruments that meet the calibration and stability requirements stated above should be maintained for as long as possible, even when these exist on decommissioned satellites. 19. Complementary in situ baseline observations for satellite measurements should be maintained through appropriate activities and cooperation. 20. Random errors and time-dependent biases in satellite observations and derived products should be identified. __________ 64 APPENDIX B GSN STATIONS IN CENTRAL ASIA** WMO Station Name No. Country 37989 50527 50745 51076 51463 51709 51777 51828 52203 52533 52836 52889 53068 53614 53772 54342 54857 55591 56137 56294 56571 56739 56985 57036 57083 57461 57745 57993 58362 58606 59287 59316 59431 59758 37549 28952 29807 35078 35108 35394 35416 35796 35849 35925 36177 36535 36859 AZERBAIJAN CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA CHINA GEORGIA KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN ASTARA HAILAR QIQIHAR ALTAY WU LU MU QI KASHI RUOQIANG HOTAN HAMI JIUQUAN DULAN LANZHOU ERENHOT YINCHUAN TAIYUAN SHENYANG QINGDAO LHASA QAMDO CHENGDU XICHANG TENGCHONG MENGZI XI'AN ZHENGZHOU YICHANG ZHIJIANG GANZHOU SHANGHAI NANCHANG GUANGZHOU SHANTOU NANNING HAIKOU TBLISI KUSTANAI IRTYSHSK ATBASAR URALSK KARAGANDA UIL BALHASH KAZALINSK SAM SEMIPALATINSK KOKPEKTY ZHARKENT 65 Latitude* 38 27N 49 13N 47 23N 47 44N 43 48N 39 28N 39 02N 37 08N 42 49N 39 46N 36 18N 36 03N 43 39N 38 29N 37 47N 39 56N 36 04N 29 40N 31 09N 30 40N 27 54N 25 07N 23 23N 34 18N 34 43N 30 42N 27 27N 25 52N 31 24N 28 36N 23 10N 23 24N 22 38N 20 02N 41 41N 53 13N 53 21N 51 49N 51 15N 49 48N 49 04N 46 48N 45 46N 45 24N 50 25N 48 45N 44 10N Longitude* 48 53E 119 45E 123 55E 88 05E 87 39E 75 59E 88 10E 79 56E 93 31E 98 29E 98 06E 103 53E 112 00E 106 13E 112 33E 116 17E 120 20E 91 08E 97 10E 104 01E 102 16E 98 29E 103 23E 108 56E 113 39E 111 18E 109 41E 115 00E 121 28E 115 55E 113 20E 116 41E 108 13E 110 21E 44 57E 63 37E 75 27E 68 22E 51 17E 73 09E 54 41E 75 05E 62 07E 56 07E 80 18E 82 22E 80 04E 36870 ALMATY KAZAKHSTAN 38001 FORT SHEVCHENKO KAZAKHSTAN 36974 NARYN KYRGYZSTAN 44212 ULAANGOM MONGOLIA 44218 HOVD MONGOLIA 44231 MUREN MONGOLIA 44239 BULGAN MONGOLIA 44259 CHOIBALSAN MONGOLIA 44272 ULIASTAI MONGOLIA 44288 ARVAIHEER MONGOLIA 44317 ERDENETSAGAAN MONGOLIA 44341 MANDALGOBI MONGOLIA 44373 DALANZADGAD MONGOLIA 20046 POLARGMO IM. E.T. KRENKELJA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 20069 OSTROV VIZE RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 20087 OSTROV GOLOMJANNYJ RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 20292 GMO IM.E.K. FEDOROVA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 20667 IM. M.V. POPOVA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 20674 OSTROV DIKSON RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 20744 MALYE KARMAKULY RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 20891 HATANGA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 21432 OSTROV KOTEL'NYJ RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 21647 MYS SHALAUROVA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 21921 KJUSJUR RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 21931 JUBILEJNAJA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 21946 CHOKURDAH RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 21982 OSTROV VRANGELJA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23074 DUDINKA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23205 NAR'JAN-MAR RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23330 SALEHARD RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23405 UST'-CIL'MA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23472 TURUHANSK RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23552 TARKO-SALE RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23631 BEREZOVO RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23711 TROICKO-PECHERSKOE RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23724 NJAKSIMVOL' RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23804 SYKTYVKAR RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23884 BOR RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23891 BAJKIT RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23914 CHERDYN' RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23933 HANTY-MANSIJSK RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 23955 ALEKSANDROVSKOE RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24105 ESSEJ RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24125 OLENEK RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24143 DZARDZAN RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24266 VERHOJANSK RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24329 SELAGONCY RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24343 ZHIGANSK RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24382 UST'-MOMA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24507 TURA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24641 VILJUJSK RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24671 TOMPO RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24688 OJMJAKON RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24738 SUNTAR RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24817 ERBOGACEN RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 24908 VANAVARA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 66 43 14N 44 33N 41 26N 49 48N 48 01N 49 38N 48 48N 48 05N 47 45N 46 16N 45 54N 45 46N 43 35N 80 37N 79 30N 79 33N 77 43N 73 20N 73 30N 72 22N 71 59N 76 00N 73 11N 70 41N 70 46N 70 37N 70 59N 69 24N 67 38N 66 32N 65 26N 65 47N 64 55N 63 56N 62 42N 62 26N 61 43N 61 36N 61 40N 60 24N 61 01N 60 26N 68 28N 68 30N 68 44N 67 33N 66 15N 66 46N 66 27N 64 16N 63 46N 63 57N 63 15N 62 09N 61 16N 60 20N 76 56E 50 15E 76 00E 92 05E 91 34E 100 10E 103 33E 114 33E 96 51E 102 47E 115 22E 106 17E 104 25E 58 03E 76 59E 90 37E 104 18E 70 03E 80 24E 52 42E 102 28E 137 52E 143 14E 127 24E 136 13E 147 53E 178 29E 86 10E 53 02E 66 40E 52 16E 87 56E 77 49E 65 03E 56 12E 60 52E 50 50E 90 01E 96 22E 56 31E 69 02E 77 52E 102 22E 112 26E 124 00E 133 23E 114 17E 123 24E 143 14E 100 14E 121 37E 135 52E 143 09E 117 39E 108 01E 102 16E 24944 24959 24966 25173 25248 25325 25399 25400 25551 25563 25703 25744 25913 25954 28064 28138 28275 28493 28661 28698 28722 29231 29263 29282 29612 29698 29838 29866 30054 30230 30372 30393 30554 30635 30673 30692 30710 30879 30925 30949 30965 31004 31088 31168 31253 31329 31369 31416 31707 31735 31829 31909 31960 32098 32195 32252 OLEKMINSK JAKUTSK UST'-MAJA MYS SHMIDTA ILIRNEJ UST'-OLOJ MYS UELEN ZYRJANKA MARKOVO ANADYR' SEJMCHAN KAMENSKOE MAGADAN KORF LEUSI BISER TOBOL'SK TARA KURGAN OMSK UFA KOLPASEVO ENISEJSK BOGUCANY BARABINSK NIZHNEUDINSK BARNAUL MINUSINSK VITIM KIRENSK CHARA CUL'MAN BAGDARIN UST'-BARGUZIN MOGOCA SKOVORODINO IRKUTSK NERCHINSKIJ ZAVOD KJAHTA KYRA BORZJA ALDAN OHOTSK AJAN BOMNAK EKIMCHAN NIKOLAEVSK-NA-AMURE IM POLINY OSIPENKO EKATERINO-NIKOL'SKOE HABAROVSK ZOLOTOJ TERNEJ VLADIVOSTOK PORONAJSK SIMUSIR UST'-VOJAMPOLKA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 67 60 24N 62 01N 60 23N 68 54N 67 15N 66 33N 66 10N 65 44N 64 41N 64 47N 62 55N 62 26N 59 33N 60 21N 59 37N 58 31N 58 09N 56 54N 55 28N 55 01N 54 43N 58 19N 58 27N 58 23N 55 20N 54 53N 53 26N 53 42N 59 27N 57 46N 56 54N 56 50N 54 28N 53 25N 53 45N 54 00N 52 16N 51 19N 50 22N 49 34N 50 24N 58 37N 59 22N 56 27N 54 43N 53 04N 53 09N 52 25N 47 44N 48 31N 47 19N 45 00N 43 07N 49 13N 46 51N 58 30N 120 25E 129 43E 134 27E 179 22W 167 58E 159 25E 169 50W 150 54E 170 25E 177 34E 152 25E 166 05E 150 47E 166 00E 65 43E 58 51E 68 15E 74 23E 65 24E 73 23E 55 50E 82 57E 92 09E 97 27E 78 22E 99 02E 83 31E 91 42E 112 35E 108 04E 118 16E 124 52E 113 35E 109 01E 119 44E 123 58E 104 19E 119 37E 106 27E 111 58E 116 31E 125 22E 143 12E 138 09E 128 56E 132 59E 140 42E 136 30E 130 58E 135 10E 138 59E 136 36E 131 56E 143 06E 151 52E 159 10E 32389 32411 32618 35121 38933 38954 38507 38750 38763 38895 38915 38262 38413 38457 KLJUCHI ICA NIKOL'SKOE ORENBURG KURGAN-TYUBE KHOROG TURKMENBASHI ESENGYLY GYZYLARBAT BAJRAMALY CARSANGA CHIMBAJ TAMDY TASHKENT RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) TAJIKISTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN UZBEKISTAN UZBEKISTAN UZBEKISTAN 56 19N 55 35N 55 12N 51 41N 37 49N 37 30N 40 03N 37 28N 38 59N 37 36N 37 31N 42 57N 41 44N 41 16N 160 50E 155 35E 165 59E 55 06E 68 47E 71 30E 53 00E 53 38E 56 17E 62 11E 66 01E 59 49E 64 37E 69 16E Note: *Coordinates in degrees and minutes **This list will be revised by the RA-II session in Hong Kong in December 2004 in light of amendments proposed by the Russian Federation and by other Members, if any. GUAN STATIONS IN CENTRAL ASIA** WMO Station Name No. 37789 50527 51709 52681 53068 55299 56778 57461 20674 21982 23472 24266 28698 30230 32540 35121 Country Latitude* YEREVAN ARMENIA 40 08N HAILAR CHINA 49 13N KASHI CHINA 39 28N MINQIN CHINA 38 38N ERENHOT CHINA 43 39N NAGQU CHINA 31 29N KUNMING CHINA 25 01N YICHANG CHINA 30 42N OSTROV DIKSON RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 73 30N OSTROV VRANGELJA RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 70 59N TURUHANSK RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 65 47N VERHOJANSK RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 67 33N OMSK RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 55 01N KIRENSK RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 57 46N PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKIJ RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 53 05N ORENBURG RUSSIAN FED. (IN ASIA) 51 41N Longitude* 44 28E 119 45E 75 59E 103 05E 112 00E 92 04E 102 41E 111 18E 80 24E 178 29E 87 56E 133 23E 73 23E 108 04E 158 35E 55 06E Note: *Coordinates in degrees and minutes **This list will be revised by the RA-II session in Hong Kong in December 2004 in light of amendments proposed by the Russian Federation and by other Members, if any. 68