Download Risk-Based Decision Making

Risk-Based Decision Making
How do you make public policy?
Policy in the US vs. Europe
• In the United States we currently make policy
decisions using a risk-based decision making
process.
• The precautionary principle is an alternative
policy making process that is very
controversial in the United States but
accepted in Europe.
Type I and Type II Errors
• Anytime a decision is made there is a possibility
that an error will have been made.
• A Type I error is the theoretical possibility that a
decision is made to accept that something is
happening when nothing is happening.
• A Type II error is the theoretical possibility that a
decision is made that nothing is happening when
something is happening.
• The kind of error that is preferable depends on
the perspective of the individual.
Type I Error
• For example, to an utility company it would be
an error [Type I] to act if global warming is
happening when it may not be.
• Why?
Type II Error
• To an ecologist, evolutionary biologist,
agronomist, or another individual who views
the consequences of global climate change as
severe, it would be an error [Type II] to act as
if global warming is not happening (when it
could be.)
• Why?
Climate Change Implications
• What type of risks are involved with making a
wrong decision about global climate change?
• Describe the economic and social impact of
acting as if global climate change is occurring
(when it is not)
• Diversion of money from other tasks to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, cost of energy
conservation, economic dislocations from
reducing greenhouse gas emissions and energy
conservation, and so on.
Climate Change
• Describe the economic and social impact of
acting as if global climate change is not
occurring (when it is)
• Impacts on global and local ecosystems,
impacts on the ability to grow food or obtain
resources (timber), impacts from increased
energy usage (air conditioning?)
Assessing Risk
• Can you effectively prioritize the following
risks? If you were in charge of public policy for
the US Environmental Protection Agency, how
would you prioritize the following risks.
• Please explain why, and give a detailed
response to your rationale to the order and
prioritization.
Assessing Risk