Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Risk-Based Decision Making How do you make public policy? Policy in the US vs. Europe • In the United States we currently make policy decisions using a risk-based decision making process. • The precautionary principle is an alternative policy making process that is very controversial in the United States but accepted in Europe. Type I and Type II Errors • Anytime a decision is made there is a possibility that an error will have been made. • A Type I error is the theoretical possibility that a decision is made to accept that something is happening when nothing is happening. • A Type II error is the theoretical possibility that a decision is made that nothing is happening when something is happening. • The kind of error that is preferable depends on the perspective of the individual. Type I Error • For example, to an utility company it would be an error [Type I] to act if global warming is happening when it may not be. • Why? Type II Error • To an ecologist, evolutionary biologist, agronomist, or another individual who views the consequences of global climate change as severe, it would be an error [Type II] to act as if global warming is not happening (when it could be.) • Why? Climate Change Implications • What type of risks are involved with making a wrong decision about global climate change? • Describe the economic and social impact of acting as if global climate change is occurring (when it is not) • Diversion of money from other tasks to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, cost of energy conservation, economic dislocations from reducing greenhouse gas emissions and energy conservation, and so on. Climate Change • Describe the economic and social impact of acting as if global climate change is not occurring (when it is) • Impacts on global and local ecosystems, impacts on the ability to grow food or obtain resources (timber), impacts from increased energy usage (air conditioning?) Assessing Risk • Can you effectively prioritize the following risks? If you were in charge of public policy for the US Environmental Protection Agency, how would you prioritize the following risks. • Please explain why, and give a detailed response to your rationale to the order and prioritization. Assessing Risk