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Impacts of Climate Change on Mediterranean Biodiversity and Challenges of Adaptation Margarita Arianoutsou - Farangitaki Department of Ecology and Systematics, Faculty of Biology, University of Athens, Greece http://uaeco.biol.uoa.gr Mediterranean climate regions of the world One of the biodiversity hotspots Defined on the basis on high endemism and high threat of destruction Concept of Biodiversity Hotspots •critical areas of the world for conservation >1500 endemic plant species < 30% of their area remaining natural •16% of the world land surface, but the remnant natural areas form only 2.3% of the world’s area •50% of all world plant species are endemic to these regions, and •77% of all terrestrial vertebrate species are present. Diverse landscapes rich in plant and animal species Biodiversity hotspots within the Mediterranean Basin Area: 1.12 x 106 km2 Plant species: 25,000 Heterogeneity Topographic: high Climatic: high Global change has four interacting components: climate, atmospheric composition, land use and ecological diversity Not only do climate, atmospheric and land use changes modify diversity at all levels of organization, but biodiversity may also have an important role in the capacity of the ecological systems to respond to those changes. Changes in land use and climate as foreseen in the four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios project to a reduction of habitats by year 2050 which will result in a loss of global vascular plant diversity ranging from 7-24% relative to 1995. Unprecedented change: Ecosystems 5-10% of the area of five regions of the Mediterranean biome was converted between 1950 and 1990 More than two thirds of the area of two biomes and more than half of the area of four others had been converted by 1990 MA Direct drivers growing in intensity MA Most direct drivers of degradation in ecosystem services remain constant or are growing in intensity in most ecosystems Map of one scenario of the expected change in biodiversity for the year 2100. Scenario C implies that interactions among the drivers are synergistic; consequently, total change is calculated as the product of the changes resulting from the action of each driver. Different colors represent expected change in biodiversity from moderate to maximum for the different biomes of the world ranked according to total expected change. Numbers in parentheses represent total change in biodiversity relative to the maximum value projected for each scenario [Sala et al. 2000, Science 287] Spatial sensitivity of plant diversity in Europe ranked by biogeographic regions. Mean percentage of current species richness (Left) and species loss(Center) and turnover (Right) by environmental zones under the A1-HadCM3 scenario The northern Mediterranean (52%), Lusitanian (60%) and Mediterranean mountain (62%) regions are the most sensitive regions; the Boreal (29%), northern Alpine (25%), and Atlantic (31%) regions are consistently less sensitive. (Thuiller et al. 2005, PNAS 102). Global change! How is it affecting biodiversity? The present global biota has been affected by fluctuating Pleistocene (last 1.8 million years) concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature, precipitation, and has coped through evolutionary changes, and the adoption of natural adaptive strategies. Such climate changes, however, occurred over an extended period of time in a landscape that was not as fragmented as it is today and with little or no additional pressure from human activities. Habitat fragmentation has confined many species to relatively small areas within their previous ranges, resulting in reduced genetic variability. evidence Rapid urbanization reaching into natural areas is also increasing habitat fragmentation Invasive species & disturbed areas evidence Warming beyond the ceiling of temperatures reached during the Pleistocene will stress ecosystems and their biodiversity far beyond the levels imposed by the global climatic change that occurred in the recent evolutionary past and possibly beyond the tolerance limits of many narrow niche species. Coral reefs evidence Polar bear Flagship species evidence Aloe dichotoma / Quiver tree Studies performed by SANBI strongly suggest that the range of the Quiver tree has begun to respond to climate-induced stress. Observations from over 50 sites in the trees range noted two trends. Firstly, where populations were found on slopes, mortality was much higher at lower elevations than at higher ones (where it would be warmer). Secondly, there were higher mortality rates in the north of the tree's range (towards the equator), than those found in the south -again, trees survived better where the climate was cooler. Dynamic Models Predictions Low elevations conifer forests are expected to expand their cover by 2% (B2) - 4% (A2) Conifers of the higher elevations are expected to be reduced by 4% (B2) – 8% (A2). Experimental data used for parameririzing models of species dynamics Fyllas et al. submitted Fyllas et al. submitted Simulations under three different climate scenarios suggest a relative greater vulnerability of forests dominated by higher altitude species, and particularly the endemic to Greece Abies cephalonica fir, to climate change. Pinus nigra was simulated to retreat and being replaced by low altitude pines at dry areas, but increased its dominance at the expense of Abies cephalonica at wetter places. Typical low altitude Mediterranean pines (P. halepensis and P. brutia), seem to be able to maintain their populations under moderate climate warming scenarios and are projected to expand their distribution ranges at higher altitudes. In all cases fire frequency increased following a drying trend imposed by the global warming scenarios. Although fires are projected to be more frequent in our simulations, viable forest stands are simulated to be established at our study sites, with however significant shifts in species composition. Fyllas et al. submitted Abies cephalonica does not posses any active regeneration mode to cope with fire (e.g. serotinous cones or thick bark). Its regeneration is foreseen to be dependent on seed dispersal and colonization from unburned patches Mt Parnitha National Park (declared at 1961; 25,800 ha) Pinus nigra forests is a priority habitat type included in the Habitats Directive 92/43 of EU Impacts and Challenges to adaptation Maintain / Enhance resistance and resilience Preventive measures e.g. prevent the expansion of exotic species Restore degraded areas Prober et al. 2012 Ameliorating ecological processes Enhancing resistance Exotic species management Prevention measures Ameliorating ecological processes Fire management Initiatives on pre-fire management may include a systematic application of risk assessment, fire safety, fire prevention and fire hazard reduction techniques Initiatives on post-fire management may include proper decisions on restoration of burned areas (natural regeneration, reforestation, selection of species etc) Hydrological engineering Enhancing resistance Designing refugia for preserving terrestrial biodiversity Microreserve 'Portell de l'Infern', Pobla de Benifassar, Castellón ©Emilio Laguna The particular placement of areas devoted to restoration of native vegetation at various scales is a primary approach to climate adaptation for biodiversity. It may facilitate the maintenance of smaller (microreserves) or larger populations (landscape reserves) and shifts in species distributions, both of which should help native species adjust to changing climates Exotic species management On the basis of the available literature – a total of 37 eradication programmes have been recorded. Thirtythree eradications were carried out on islands and four on the mainland. The rat (Rattus spp.) has been the most common target (67%), followed by the rabbit. In many cases, these eradications determined a significant recovery of native biodiversity. Differently to other regions of the world, no eradications of alien invertebrates and marine organisms have been recorded; regarding invasive alien plants, it appears that only some very localized removals have been completed so far in Europe. The limited number of eradications carried out in Europe so far is probably due to the limited awareness of the public and the decision makers, the inadequacy of the legal framework, and the scarcity of resources (IUCN, P. Genovesi, 2004) Prevention measures Control emissions Regulate tourism Regulate grazing Manage water points Minimize road constructions Minimize mining Overall, Ecosystem-based adaptation uses biodiversity and ecosystem services in an overall adaptation strategy. It includes the sustainable management, conservation and restoration of ecosystems to provide services that help people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. Examples of ecosystem-based adaptation activities include: •Coastal defence through the maintenance and/or restoration of mangroves and other coastal wetlands to reduce coastal flooding and coastal erosion. •Sustainable management of upland wetlands and floodplains for maintenance of water flow and quality. •Conservation and restoration of forests to stabilize land slopes, regulate water flows, enhance CO2 absorption. •Apply proper fire management plans •Preserve/establish habitats connectivity •Establishment of diverse agroforestry systems to cope with increased risk from changed climatic conditions. •Conservation of agrobiodiversity to provide specific gene pools for crop and livestock adaptation to climate change Biodiversity is part of the solution to climate change Thank you