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Central Banks Governors’ Club of the Central Asia, Black Sea Region and Balkan Countries April 2-4, 2017, Antalya, Turkey Recent Economic and Financial Developments NATIONAL BANK OF TAJIKISTAN Key Macro Trends Nominal GDP, billion TJS 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 CPI Inflation, % 2016 GDP: 54.5 bn 2021F GDP 88.7 bn 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 Real GDP growth, % 12 6.9% 8 Last 5 yrs average: Next five years average (forecast) 5.7% 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 6.3% 2017 Next five years average (forecast) 5.4% 2021F EXPORTS 8,0 7,0 2016 IMPORTS 6,0 6 4,0 4 3,0 2021F IMPORTS 2,0 2 2016 EXPORTS 1,0 0 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 5.6x 4.4x 0,0 2001 6.7x 4.3x 5,0 1997 2021 Exports & Imports, Indexed to $1 in 1997 Last 5 yrs average: 10 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 Sources: NBT, IMF WEO Database, October 2016 Banking system 2015 2016 +/- Feb 2017 +/Since 2016 Credit institutions 123 104 -19 102 -2 1. Banks 17 18 +1 16 -2 7 7 0 7 0 2. Micro finance institutions 2.1 Micro deposit and credit institutions 106 86 -20 86 0 39 38 -1 38 0 2.2 Micro credit institutions 31 14 -17 14 0 2.3 Micro credit funds 36 34 -2 34 0 Branches 432 437 +5 370 -67 Center for Banking Services 1235 1420 +185 1407 -13 Structure including: foreign banks 3 Recent improvements… enhanced the supervisory powers of the NBT through amendments in relevant laws and regulations; established Consumer Protection Division; established the Financial Stability Division (FSD); established the Committee for Financial Stability as an advisory body to the NBT Board; (Financial State Committee will be established in 2017) ; Recent improvements… prepared monetary and exchange rate policy strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016-2020 years; raised the refinancing rate from 12.5 to 16 percent; activated open market operations in response to increased inflationary and depreciation pressures; replaced over-the-counter interbank trading with up-todate electronic trading platform (Thomson Reuters); Recent improvements moved from passive and concentrated management of assets to a more active and diversified Strategic Asset Allocation model; became the World Bank’s Reserve Advisory and Management Program (RAMP) member; abolished the multiple-exchange rate practices and reunified the official and market exchange rates; since May 2015, increased gross international reserves by 39% (2.7 months of import now). Thank you for your attention!