Download Jamshed Nurmahmadzoda -National Bank of Tajikistan

Central Banks Governors’ Club of the Central Asia,
Black Sea Region and Balkan Countries
April 2-4, 2017, Antalya, Turkey
Recent Economic and Financial Developments
NATIONAL BANK OF TAJIKISTAN
Key Macro Trends
Nominal GDP, billion TJS
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
CPI Inflation, %
2016 GDP:
54.5 bn
2021F GDP
88.7 bn
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
Real GDP growth, %
12
6.9%
8
Last 5 yrs
average:
Next five years
average (forecast)
5.7%
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
6.3%
2017
Next five years
average (forecast)
5.4%
2021F EXPORTS
8,0
7,0
2016 IMPORTS
6,0
6
4,0
4
3,0
2021F IMPORTS
2,0
2
2016 EXPORTS
1,0
0
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
5.6x
4.4x
0,0
2001
6.7x
4.3x
5,0
1997
2021
Exports & Imports, Indexed to $1 in 1997
Last 5 yrs
average:
10
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
Sources: NBT, IMF WEO Database, October 2016
Banking system
2015 2016
+/-
Feb 2017
+/Since 2016
Credit institutions
123
104
-19
102
-2
1. Banks
17
18
+1
16
-2
7
7
0
7
0
2. Micro finance institutions
2.1 Micro deposit and credit
institutions
106
86
-20
86
0
39
38
-1
38
0
2.2 Micro credit institutions
31
14
-17
14
0
2.3 Micro credit funds
36
34
-2
34
0
Branches
432
437
+5
370
-67
Center for Banking Services
1235 1420 +185
1407
-13
Structure
including: foreign banks
3
Recent improvements…
enhanced the supervisory powers of the NBT
through amendments in relevant laws and
regulations;
established Consumer Protection Division;
established the Financial Stability Division (FSD);
established the Committee for Financial Stability as
an advisory body to the NBT Board; (Financial State
Committee will be established in 2017) ;
Recent improvements…
prepared monetary and exchange rate policy strategy of
the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016-2020 years;
raised the refinancing rate from 12.5 to 16 percent;
activated open market operations in response to
increased inflationary and depreciation pressures;
replaced over-the-counter interbank trading with up-todate electronic trading platform (Thomson Reuters);
Recent improvements
moved from passive and concentrated management of
assets to a more active and diversified Strategic Asset
Allocation model;
became the World Bank’s Reserve Advisory and
Management Program (RAMP) member;
abolished the multiple-exchange rate practices and reunified the official and market exchange rates;
since May 2015, increased gross international reserves
by 39% (2.7 months of import now).
Thank you for your attention!