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EMBARGO 0900 GMT, MONDAY 15 MAY 2017
Year of Polar Prediction – from research to improved environmental safety
Rapid change in polar regions necessitates global response
GENEVA 15 MAY, 2017 _ A concerted international campaign to improve predictions of
weather, climate and ice conditions in the Arctic and Antarctic has been launched to
minimize the environmental risks and maximize the opportunities associated with rapid
climate change in polar regions and to close the current gaps in polar forecasting
capacity.
The Year of Polar Prediction takes place from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in order to cover an
entire year in both the Arctic and Antarctic and involves the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) and a wide array of
partners around the globe.
During the next two years, a large international and interdisciplinary network of
scientists and operational forecasting centers will jointly undertake intensive observation
and modeling activities in the Arctic and Antarctic. As a result, better forecasts of
weather and sea-ice conditions will reduce future risks and enable safety management in
the polar regions, and also lead to improved forecasts in lower latitudes where most
people live.
“The effects of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions are felt more intensely
in the polar regions than anywhere else. The Arctic and parts of the Antarctic are heating
twice as rapidly as the rest of the world, causing melting of glaciers, shrinking sea ice
and snow cover. The impact of this is felt in other parts of the globe – as exemplified by
rising sea levels and changing weather and climate patterns,” said Thomas Jung, of the
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, and chair of
the Polar Prediction Project steering committee.
“Arctic sea-ice maximum extent after the winter re-freezing period in March was the
lowest on record because of a series of ‘heat-waves.’ Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
after the most recent Southern Hemisphere summer melt was also the lowest on record.
The rate and implications of polar environmental change is pushing our scientific
knowledge to the limits,” said Mr Jung.
“Because of teleconnections, the poles influence weather and climate conditions in lower
latitudes where hundreds of millions of people live. Warming Arctic air masses and
declining sea ice are believed to affect ocean circulation and the jet stream, and are
potentially linked to extreme phenomena such as cold spells, heat waves and droughts in
the northern hemisphere,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
The dramatic changes in weather, climate and ice conditions at the poles are leading to
increased human activities such as transportation, tourism, fisheries are and natural
resource exploitation and extraction.
“The expected increase in activity comes with its own share of risks to both the
environment and society, including traditional indigenous livelihoods. Ice-laden polar
seas are a challenge to navigate, whilst any oil spills could be catastrophic. Less ice does
not mean less danger,” said Mr Taalas. “Accurate weather and sea-ice information will
thus become increasingly vital in order to improve safety management in polar regions
and beyond,” he said.
When it comes to the extreme environment at the poles, forecasts of weather and seaice conditions have serious shortcomings. The Arctic and Antarctic are the world’s most
poorly observed regions. Lack of data and forecasts in the Arctic and Antarctic impacts
on the quality of weather forecasts also in other parts of the world. It is therefore
expected that advances in polar prediction will lead to improved weather forecasts and
climate predictions both for polar regions and densely populated countries.
Special Observing Periods
The Year Of Polar Prediction was officially launched during WMO’s annual Executive
Council meeting. Polar and high mountain activities are among WMO’s top strategic
priorities because of the growing impact of climate change from greenhouse gas
emissions, because of the need to improve our understanding of weather phenomena in
extreme regions and because the poor monitoring network leaves gaping holes in the
global weather observing capability.
During special observing periods, the number of routine observations, for example
through weather balloon launches from meteorological stations and buoy deployments
from research vessels, will be enhanced; coordinated aircraft campaigns and satellite
missions will be carried out; and new automatic weather stations will be installed at
different polar locations.
In addition, coordinated field campaigns will from mid-2017 to mid-2019 will raise the
number of observations in both polar regions. A growing number of international projects,
network and organizations are already involved with activities during the Year of Polar
Prediction, including several EU Horizon 2020 projects.
There will be a special focus on sea ice forecasting capabilities. On shorter time scales,
sea-ice information includes information on zones of strong ice convergence which is
important for safe shipping. On monthly to seasonal time scales, the focus will include
the prediction of sea-ice conditions in the Northern Sea Route and in the Southern Ocean
around Antarctica.
Changes in the Arctic Circle are likely to result in an opening of the sea, more severe
waves and more challenging ice conditions for shipping. In an ice-free Arctic, wave
height conditions of 25-feet or greater could be the new norm that mariners may have to
design and plan for. The ability to better understand and predict the effects of
phenomena such as Arctic polar lows or Antarctica extreme winds will help polar nations
prepare for considerable management and maintenance issues on existing roads,
airports, buildings, and pipelines.
All observational data will be shared via the WMO Information System – allowing
operational forecasting centres around the world to receive the data in real time to feed
their forecasts. In addition, social scientists will look at how polar forecasts can be
factored into socio-economic decision making, whilst key stakeholders in transport,
shipping and tourism sectors will provide input on the practical needs of the user
community.
The science and technology improvements developed under the umbrella of the Year of
Polar Prediction will both strengthen physical understanding of the Arctic and Antarctic,
and provide the foundation of better observational and predictive systems for the future.
Notes to Editors:
A new animation on the Year of Polar Prediction is available at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMKo5zlzx9A&feature=youtu.be
More information on the Year of Polar Prediction including a media kit
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/l8o73rha5fbdw2e/AAAUvgWceD53UERXmSFB-uMHa?dl=0
is available here http://www.polarprediction.net/
The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s
authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water
WMO website: public.wmo.int
The Alfred Wegener Institute carries out research in the Arctic, Antarctic, in the
high and mid latitude oceans.
AWI website: www.awi.de/en.html
For more information, please contact:
Clare Nullis, Press Officer, Communications and Public Affairs, Tel: +41 22 730 8478 or
+41 79 709 13 97 (cell), e-mail: [email protected].
Or Kirstin Werner, Project Officer, International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction,
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research. Tel: +49 471
4831 1588, e-mail [email protected]