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TEACHER MATERIALS UNIT 10 GUIDE Table of Contents Learning Outcomes 2 Key Concepts 2 Misconceptions and Teaching Challenges 3 Lesson and Content Overview 4 BIG HISTORY PROJECT / SY 2016-17 / UNIT 10 GUIDE 1 TEACHER MATERIALS Unit 10—The Future Unit 10 Driving Question: What’s the next threshold? Learning Outcomes 1. Explain the Big History story and its defining features and patterns. 2. Identify important human and environmental issues that affect the future of our species and the biosphere. 3. Propose a vision of the future based on new understandings of the past. Key Concepts In Unit 10, the focus moves from the past and the present to the future. Historians are not accustomed to making predictions about the future, as their work relies primarily on the analysis of documents and objects that already exist. But because of the nature of Big History, the course does allow for different types of predictions about the future. Predictions about trends in the near future are possible in a number of areas: resource availability, carbon levels in the atmosphere, temperature change, and population growth are just some of the topics that allow for predictions of future trends based on trends from the past and present. Predicting the remote future, ironically, can be done with somewhat greater confidence. Scientists are quite confident, for example, about the characteristics of our Sun, and as a result they can speak confidently about when it will run out of fuel and die. What students have learned in earlier units of this course will allow them to approach predictions about both the near and distant future. World History Big History includes selected World History topics in support of local standards in New York, California, and other regions around the world. While not a replacement for a world history course, they explore the intersection of Big History and world history. Either a globe icon or the notation (WH) denotes these activities, videos, and articles. Science The Big History science extension aims to increase the depth of STEM and general science content in the course. Either a beaker icon or the notation (Sci) denotes these activities, videos, and articles. Reviewing the Last 13.8 Billion Years We have seen how, over the past 13.8 billion years, more complex things appeared in the Universe. From the Big Bang, there emerged a small but rapidly expanding Universe with lots of dark energy and dark matter as well as a small amount of chemical elements, mainly in the form of hydrogen and helium atoms. Within about 200 million years, gravity had sculpted the first complex objects, stars, and within dying stars new elements were cooked, making the Universe more chemically complex, and allowing the formation of objects such as planets. Our Sun and Earth formed about 4.5 billion years ago. On our planet (and potentially on others, too!) where conditions were just right, complex chemicals combined to form living organisms. These organisms could reproduce and evolve as tiny changes were introduced in each generation. This process has been repeated for almost 4 billion years to BIG HISTORY PROJECT / SY 2016-17 / UNIT 10 GUIDE 2 TEACHER MATERIALS generate the immense variety of species alive today, including our own species, Homo sapiens. We have turned out to be the only species capable of collective learning, and this has allowed our species to build on past achievements and develop new ideas, techniques, and technologies. This process has sped up the pace of societal change within our communities and the ecological impact of our species. Within just 200,000 years, our numbers have multiplied dramatically and spread into every region of the Earth. In the last few centuries, these processes have accelerated, and we have created the vast, complex global societies of today. We’ve created increasingly powerful technologies, increased our ability to control the environment, and, simultaneously, increased our impact on the biosphere. Predicting the Near Future What will life be like in the near future, say on the scale of a few decades or centuries from now? Of course, we cannot see into the future, but we can study those current trends that seem most likely to shape the future. At present, we can see both dangerous trends (such as global warming and the continued existence of nuclear weapons) and more positive trends (such as global collaboration in dealing with climate change, slowing in population growth, and acceleration in our knowledge about the biosphere). Can we imagine a future largely free of conflict, disease, and degradation, one in which some humans may even begin to migrate to other worlds as our Paleolithic ancestors migrated to other continents? Or are we in danger of undermining the foundations of today’s world, creating a more impoverished world of vicious conflict over scarce resources? The answers will depend on decisions taken by the generations of humans that are alive today at this critical moment in human history. Predicting the Distant Future What will life be like in the more remote future, say on the scale of millions or billions of years from now? Curiously, it is easier to predict the very remote future, the future of the Earth and the Universe, because here change is slower and there are fewer variables to calculate. The Sun will die in about 4 billion to 5 billion years’ time. At about the same time the Milky Way galaxy and the Andromeda galaxy will collide, and that event will have a profound impact on the stars in each galaxy. Evidence from distant galaxies suggests that the speed of the Universe’s expansion is accelerating, which in turn suggests that galaxies will slowly become more and more isolated until, eventually, all stars burn out. The Universe will then fill up with dying stars, which will get gobbled up by black holes, making it simpler and simpler. But this will not happen for billions of billions of years. Why This Matters An understanding of the evolution of the Universe is vital for providing context for why the Universe still exists today. It also provides the knowledge and evidence to help us make informed predictions about our future, the future of the Earth, and the Universe as a whole. It is always helpful to be prepared, and you cannot be ready for the unknown. While our historical knowledge cannot guarantee that we can accurately predict the future, we have a better chance of doing so using our scientific and historical understandings. Misconceptions and Teaching Challenges All Predictions are the Same Students may hold the view that all types of predictions are the same. It is important to emphasize with students that there is a difference between random prediction and scientific prediction. The former is based on gut instinct or feelings, whereas the latter is based on observation, evidence, and probabilities. Students should be trying to model scientific prediction. When they make scientific predictions in this unit, they will be using evidence and understandings from previous units. They will be grounding their predictions in concrete evidence as opposed to instinct. BIG HISTORY PROJECT / SY 2016-17 / UNIT 10 GUIDE 3 TEACHER MATERIALS Cumulative Content This unit provides some greater content challenges than usual since the activities require them to think through problems that draw on knowledge from every unit in the course. A goal of Unit 10 is to ask students to think about issues that face humans and the biosphere in the near and remote futures. To grapple with such questions, students will need to draw on information from all units of the course. Students will have varying degrees of recollection of these units. This could both slow down their work, as they go back and review previous work, or it could frustrate them, as they try hard to remember where they might find information to help them address a specific question. Little Big History Finishing the Little Big History projects will require hard work and focus. Students have worked hard during the year. Although they’ve done important preliminary LBH project work in previous units, students will now be trying to learn new content at the same time that they’re working intensively to finish their LBH projects. You may need to provide extra encouragement to get them through it, despite your own fatigue! Lesson and Content Overview Lesson name Lesson description 10.0—Looking Back Big History is an unfinished • Watch: The History of story. But before we think about Everything – TED where we go from here, let’s take a quick look at where our 13.8-billion-year adventure has taken us. • Opening: Timeline Review We’ve created powerful technologies, tried to control the environment, and increased our impact on the biosphere. Consider issues facing humans and the biosphere in the near and remote futures. • Watch: Crash Course World History: Globalization II – Good or Bad? • Opening: Natural Disasters The study of Big History inevitably leads to the future. So what’s next? Join some of the world’s great thinkers to try to predict the next threshold. • Watch: A Big History of Everything – H2 • Opening: My Timeline Redux • Read: “Complexity and the Future” • Closing: The Future of Our Planet 10.1—The Biosphere 10.2—Looking Forward Content • Watch: The Atmosphere and Climate • Watch: Jacqueline Howard Presents: A Day on Mars • Watch: Bill Gates: Visions of the Future Activity • Vocab Activity: Part 1 • Activity: DQ Notebook • Activity: Scale • Closing: What Do You Know? What Do You Ask? • Vocab Activity: Part 2 • Activity: Gapminder Card Sort • Closing: Visions of the Future • Activity: DQ Notebook • Watch: The Deep Future – Crash Course • Read: “Sylvester James Gates, Jr.: At the Forefront of Science” BIG HISTORY PROJECT / SY 2016-17 / UNIT 10 GUIDE 4 TEACHER MATERIALS Lesson name Lesson description Content Activity 10.3—Are We Alone? (Sci) Humans have long questioned the idea that we may not be alone in the Universe. Earth is just one planet in a Universe with trillions of planets. While this may make us seem rather insignificant, Big History has shown that we are an important part of the story of the Universe. • Watch: The Fermi Paradox – Where Are All the Aliens? (Sci) • Opening: Alien Life – What Might It Look Like? (Sci) Investigation: Are humans still evolving? In this unit’s Investigation, students weigh conflicting opinions by two scientists to consider if humans are still evolving. • Human evolution • Claim testing worksheets • Geneticists and paleoanthropologists weigh in • Speech or debate script Additional content Additional content items, including image galleries, can be used to augment lessons or customize your own unit. • Pocket Time Machine - H2 (video) • Unit 10 - PBL • Watch: Neil deGrasse Tyson – Where Are the Aliens? (Sci) • Read: “Are We Alone? Now Is the Time to Find Out” (Sci) • Activity: Anyone Out There? (The Drake Equation) (Sci) • Closing: First Contact (Sci) • Read: “40 Years Ago, Earth Beamed Its First Postcard to the Stars” (Sci) • “Claim Testers Episode 4: Fueling the Future” (reading) • Investigation 10 • Threshold 9: The Future (video) • Henry Louis Gates, Jr: Visions of the Future (video) • Sanjayan: Visions of the Future (video) • “Part 2 Summary” (reading) • Learning tips • Random facts • Related galleries, images, websites, and videos • Web links Assessments Actions This unit includes a required Unit 10: Final Test along with lesson and glossary quizzes. Also included is an Investigation writing assessment. • Lesson Quizzes • Glossary Challenge • Unit Test • Investigation Writing The Unit Log is required for every unit and Unit 10 also includes a survey which students and teachers are encouraged to participate in. • Unit Log BIG HISTORY PROJECT / SY 2016-17 / UNIT 10 GUIDE • Survey 5 TEACHER MATERIALS BIG HISTORY PROJECT / SY 2016-17 / UNIT 10 GUIDE 6