Download Climate Change and Cryosphere Studies in Pakistan

Climate Change and Cryosphere
Monitoring in Pakistan
Danial Hashmi
Former Project Director (GMRC-WAPDA)
1
Introduction
• Pakistan is a Single River System Country
• It highly depends on Indus River waters for its Indus Basin irrigated
agriculture that contributes 22 percent to country’s GDP and provides
direct employment to 44% of its population.
 About 70 - 80% of Indus River System inflows originates from the melting
of snow and glaciers
 Indus River System annual average inflows are 144.57 MAF [1976-2015 Avge ]
 Large variability in annual water inflows.
 Varied between 99.05 MAF [2001-2] and 183.45 MAF [1978-79]
 With increase in Population, Pakistan is becoming a water stressed country.
From 5650m³/cap water available in 1951 to about 1000 m³/ cap in 2010.
Cryosphere Monitoring by WAPDA
1960s
• Installation of river gauging network and valley bottom weather
stations.
1961-1969
• Snow surveys were carried out in Kaghan valley.
1975-1979
• LandSat imageries: Correlations between depleting snow cover and
river flow
1985-1989
• WAPDA in collaboration with Canadian Universities carried out UIB
snow and glacier field studies to develop flow forecasting system for
UIB Rivers.
1991-1997
• WAPDA established high-altitude (2200-4800 m.a.s.l.) network in UIB
comprising 20 weather stations.
• Record, collect & transmit hourly weather data to Flow Forecasting Centre
Lahore .
• High-altitude data and UBC Watershed Model are being used for
forecasting flows on seasonal (Rabi and Kharif) and short-term (10-Daily)
since 2003 for water management in Indus River System.
3
Upper Indus Basin
Studies by WAPDA
Cont…
• Mass-Balance of selected glaciers of Karakoram and
Himalayas were carried out.
• Avalanche studies in Kunhar Basin including hydrology
of avalanches were also carried out.
• Ken Hewitt with WAPDA Staff studied potential Glacial
Lakes sites in Upper Indus Basin
• During 1989 Dr. Gordon Young carried out
sedimentation studies of Batura and Passu Glacier,
Central Hunza, with the students of University of
Manchester and WAPDA staff.
• Ablation gradient of Passu glacier for year 1988 and
1989 was also studied during this period.
Upper Indus Basin-Glacier and Rivers
Hispar
(53 Km)
Khunjerab Pass
Batura
(60 Km)
Glaciers
Biafo
(68 km)
Siachen
(75 km)
• Over 5000
Glaciated area
K-2
Gilgit
• 20,000 km2
Indus River
Reservoirs
• Glaciers act as
reservoirs
Contribution of
Snow & Ice
• 85% towards annual
runoff in the Indus
Kabul River
Line of Control
Tarbela
Dam
Jhelum
River
Islamabad
Mangla
Dam
6
Snow Sampling
Shark Col Snow Pit
(5660 m)
(Snow Lake feeding Biafo Glacier)
7
Preparation for Stake Survey
8
MIAR GLACIER,HUNZA(1989) -KARAKORAM
Depth Profile of Miar Glacier - 1989
(using Radio-echo soundings)
Research Studies
Some outcomes
• There are more than 5000 glaciers in the Indus catchment covering
an area of more than 13000 Km2, but out of these about 100 glaciers
covers more than 85% of total glaciated area. Ice melt from these big
glaciers are contributing bulk of the water in the Upper Indus River.
• The bulk of all UIB precipitation occurs in an altitudinal zone of 2500 –
6000 m elevation.
• The elevation of maximum precipitation is at about 5000m in the
Western Karakorams and 6000m in Eastern Karakorams.
• Annual Average Precipitation is in the order of 1000 – 1800 mm of
Snow Water Equivalent
• Most of the UIB glaciers are fed by snow avalanching and are Debris
Covered
• Active melting zone of glaciers is between 3000 to 4800 meters
above sea level.
Climate Change Studies in WAPDA
• In Collaboration with the University of Colorado, Boulder,
USA WAPDA studied Impact on the flows of River Indus
due to Climate Change 1991.
• Dr. James Wescoat was the Principal investigator in this
study.
• UBC Watershed Model was used to generate future flow
scenarios.
• This study using GCM’s from Goddard Institute of Space
Sciences (GISS) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab
(GFDL) predicted 3.2°C and 4.7°C increase in
temperature respectively by doubling CO2 from 1991
Level shown change in total annual river inflows by -16%
to +11%
Pakistan Snow and Ice Hydrology Project -II
• On the findings of 1985-1989 Second Phase of PSIHP
was initiated in 1991 and continued till 1997.
• In this phase 20 High Altitude automatic weather
stations in the elevation zone of 2200 to 4800 meters
a.s.l. were installed in Upper Indus Basin
• The data from these stations is being collected and
transmitted to Lahore Forecasting Centre through
Meteorburst Communication System since 1993.
• A hydrologic Model from the University of British
Columbia Vancouver, Canada was obtained and
calibrated for the hydrologic conditions of Upper
Indus Basin.
WAPDA TYPICAL DCP STATION
SENSORS INSTALLED
•Precipitation
•Wind
•Temperature &
Relative Humidity
•Solar Radiation
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Relative Humidity
• Solar Radiation
• Snow Water Equivalent
• Wind (Speed; Direction)
•Snow Water
Equivalent
Babusar Pass (4210masl)
15
Automatic Weather Station - Shogran
WAPDA Snow and Ice Hydrology Project -II
• The UBC Watershed model is being used for
developing and issuing flow forecasts to the
Water Managers of the country since 2004.
• In this operational phase Seasonal (Kharif and
Rabi) and Short Term (10-Daily) flow forecasts
of River Indus at Tarbela Reservoir, River
Jhelum at Mangla Reservoir and that of River
Kabul at Nowshera are prepared and issued.
• The forecasts are used by IRSA and WAPDA
Authority for water management of Indus
River System and optimum production of
Hydropower.
Seasonal Flow Forecasts using UBC Watershed Model
Kharif Season (Apr-Sep) 2016
53.8
50.0
Forecast
Observed
54.0
40.0
30.0
17.3
15.2
10.0
17.5
20.0
18.0
Flow Volume in million acre-feet (maf)
60.0
0.0
Tarbela
Mangla
Kabul
SWE confirmation at SHOGRAN
26-Jun
19-Jun
12-Jun
5-Jun
29-May
22-May
15-May
8-May
1-May
24-Apr
17-Apr
10-Apr
3-Apr
27-Mar
20-Mar
13-Mar
6-Mar
28-Feb
21-Feb
14-Feb
7-Feb
31-Jan
24-Jan
17-Jan
10-Jan
3-Jan
27-Dec
20-Dec
13-Dec
6-Dec
500
29-Nov
600
22-Nov
15-Nov
8-Nov
1-Nov
Snow water equivalent(mm)
Snow Water Equivalent- DCP Station DEOSAI (3910 m.a.s.l.)
700
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
400
300
200
100
0
UIB Percent Snow Cover Area (2001-2015)
(Extracted from MODIS Daily Data)
70
64
62
60
58
53
50
46
38
40
33
30
24
23
20
14
12
10
10
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Source: Glacier Monitoring Research Centre - WAPDA
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
WAPDA DCP Station (4750 m.a.s.l.) at
Khunjerab
SENSORS INSTALLED
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Relative Humidity
• Solar Radiation
• Snow Water Equivalent
• Wind (Speed; Direction)
22
Temperature Change at WAPDA Weather Station Khunjerab
Period: 1995 - 2010 , Elevation 4710 m.a.s.l
4
3.01
3
Temperature Chnage ( degree celcius)
2.58
Overall Observation:
Over all temperature increase
Day time temperature increase
Night time temperature increase
Summer temperatute decrease
2.45
2
=
=
=
=
0.78 °C
0.54 °C
1.02 °C
-1.80 °C
1.63
1.17
1
0.75
0.82
0.57
0.10
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
-0.56
-1
-1.56
-2
-1.56
Oct
Nov
Dec
Change in Annual and Seasonal Mean Temperatures (1960 – 2007)
Source : Pakistan Meteorological Department
Post Treaty Western Rivers Inflow Trend
160
150
130
120
110
Falling Trend
Man-Kendall Trend Significance Level = 69%
Annual Average (1961-2014) = 129.833 MAF
100
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
90
1961
Inflows (maf)
140
Trend Statistics for Western Rivers Inflow
Method Used: Mann-Kendall ; Period 1962 – 2014; n = 53
Indus at Tarbela
Kabul at Nowshera Jhelum at Mangla
Chenab at Marala
Annl Q
(maf)
Trend
Sig. Lvl
Annl Q
(maf)
Trend
Sig. Lvl
Annl Q
(maf)
Trend
Sig. Lvl
Annl Q
(maf)
Trend
Sig. Lvl
Jan
1.013
Rising
95%
0.628
Rising
88%
0.530
Rising
61%
0.570
Rising
82%
Feb
0.988
Rising
100%
0.587
Rising
98%
0.795
Rising
95%
0.706
Rising
69%
Mar
1.410
Rising
99%
1.014
Rising
84%
1.776
Rising
91%
1.242
Rising
15%
Apr
2.010
Rising
24%
2.037
Falling
58%
2.711
Rising
29%
1.475
Falling
35%
May
4.479
Rising
100%
3.129
Falling
40%
3.608
Falling
1%
2.283
Rising
61%
Jun
9.959
Falling
85%
4.012
Falling
96%
3.520
Falling
96%
3.528
Falling
84%
Jul
15.012 Falling
92%
4.156
Falling
91%
3.325
Falling
92%
5.327
Falling
92%
Aug
14.082 Falling
92%
3.010
Falling
88%
2.610
Falling
84%
5.407
Falling
93%
Sep
6.380
Rising
13%
1.326
Rising
14%
1.536
Rising
50%
2.763
Rising
1%
Oct
2.473
Rising
96%
0.700
Rising
84%
0.797
Falling
24%
0.943
Rising
70%
Nov
1.496
Rising
100%
0.549
Rising
1%
0.548
Falling
6%
0.525
Rising
69%
Dec
1.186
Rising
99%
0.549
Falling
58%
0.521
Rising
32%
0.489
Rising
33%
WAPDA Field Activities
2013, 2014 and 2015
2016
• Glacier Field Investigation (Melt behaviour)
• Pasu Glacier
• Miar-Sumiyarbar-Barpur System
• Biafo Glacier
• Stakes, surface velocity, weather data
recording, discharge observations, GPR
Survey etc.
• Glacier Field Investigations
• Raikot Glacier (Himalayan Range)
• GPR Survey on Raikot Glacier
• Snout surveys for glaciers in the Hunza River
Basin
• Pasu
• Barpu
• Hoper
• Yazghill
• Malungutti
• Khurdopin & Yushkin Gardan
• Virjerab
• Glacier Snout Surveys
• Gulkin, Gulmit, Batura, Passu, Yashkuk
Yaz, Mohmil, Lopghau and Raikot.
• Biafo and Baltoro planned in October.
• Discharge Measurements
• Nagar River
• Hispar River
• Shimshall River
• Raikot Stream
• Permafrost Monitoring (Deosai Plateau)
27
GMRC – WAPDA Field Team
GMRC-Chinese Team at Barpu Galcier
GMRC Team at Attabad Lake (Hunza)
28
Setting up stakes at Passu Glacier , Hunza Basin
Setting Automatic Weather Station at Passu
Surveying movement of stakes at Passu
Discharge measurements at Passu outlet
6/17/2011
6/10/2011
6/3/2011
5/27/2011
5/20/2011
5/13/2011
5/6/2011
4/29/2011
4/22/2011
4/15/2011
4/8/2011
4/1/2011
3/25/2011
3/18/2011
River Levels (m)
Passu Outlet River Levels
1.6
Q = 41.5 cms
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Nagar Valley: Temperature & Glacial Melt (July 2015)
Temperature (Hoper)
July 2015
Maximum Daily Temperature (oC
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
AWS
15.0
10.0
Nagar River Discharge
July 2015
Catchment of
Nagar River
Maximum Daily Discharge in Cusecs
25000
20000
ARL
15000
10000
5000
0
34
Glacier Snout Surveys
WAPDA Passu
Glacier Studies
(initial work during
2010-11 in collaboration
with ICIMOD)
36
Melt Rates for Biafo
Glacier. Shigar Basin
Jul-Sep (2015)
Biafo Glacier
Sr. No.
Profiles
1
2
3
Mango Profile
El. 3679 m
4
5
6
Baintha Profile
El. 4051 m
Average Ablation Rates
(cm/day)
Day wise
Stake wise
Net Ablation
Rates
(cm/day)
July (11-31)
6.9
6.6
6.8
August
5.2
5.2
5.2
Sep. (1-9)
3.2
3.2
3.2
July (11-31)
6.5
6.6
6.5
August
5.0
5.0
5.0
Sep. (1-9)
4.1
4.1
4.1
Month
37
GPR Survey, Barpu Glacier
38
GPR Survey for Raikot Glacier
Profile 1
3360
81.8 m
Elevation (m.a.s.l)
3380
3340
3320
RC-3
PR1-2
86.9 m
PR1-1
105.5 m
3400
3300
3280
Glacier Surface
3260
Glacier Bed
3240
0
100
200
300
400
500
Distance from Glacier's Left Edge (m)
Profile 2
3550
RC-6
600
700
PR2-2
114 m
3450
139.3 m
3500
122.4 m
Elevation (m.a.s.l)
PR2-1
3400
Glacier Surface
Series2
3350
0
200
400
600
Distance from Glacier's Left Edge (m)
800
39
Permafrost Monitoring at Deosai Plateau
Collaboration with the Institute of Tibetan Plateau - Chinese Academy of Sciences (ITP-CAS)
• 5 meters pit excavated for the installation of sensors
• Monitor the soil temperature/moisture profiles distribution
• 10 sensors were installed to measure:
• soil moisture
• Temperature
• 3 also measure electric conductivity
40
Soil Sampling & Sensor Installation at Deosai Plateau
Elevation: 4000 meters.a.s.l
41
WAPDA Future Program - Isotope Analysis
To assess the relative contribution of Snow, Glacier, Rain and Ground Water
in River Flows
• Proposed sites for Sampling :
1. Indus River at Kharmong
2. Indus River at Kachura
3. Indus River at Bunji / Partab Bridge
4. Indus River at Besham Qila
5. Gilgit River at Gilgit
6. Hunza River at Dainyor
7. Astore River at Doyian
• Other suitable sites to be identified
To be carried out by WAPDA in collaboration with Institute of Tibetan
Plateau, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ITP-CAS)
42
Extension in GMRC-WAPDA High-Altitude Hydromet Network
Note: Tarbela Average Inflows (1961 – 1999) = 61.5 MAF
World Bank Report 2005
44
Tarbela Average Decadal Flows
65
63.85
64
62.98
63
Avg = 61.482 maf
Inflow Volumes (maf)
62
61.03
61
60
59
58.37
58.13
58
57
56
55
1961-1969
1969-1979
1979-1989
1989-1999
1999-2009
Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on Indus River Flows at Bisham Qila
(Just above Tarbela Reservoir)
Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):
 Temp: +3°C,  Glacier Area: - 50%
Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
Discharge (Cumecs)
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Main Results:
Source: GSISC - Pakistan
Base Runoff
CCS Runoff
Base Glacier melt
CCS Glacier melt
1. Annual flows reduced by 15%
2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
0
First-Order Effects of Temperature and Precipitation
Changes on Discharge into the Indus Main Stem
Precipitation changes, MAF (percentage of baseline)
–10%
No
Change
10%
20%
45.4 (78)
50.3 (86)
55.1 (94)
60 (103)
64.9 (111)
46.2 (79)
46.2 (79)
48.6 (83)
52.7 (90)
54.3 (93)
51.1 (88) 55.9 (96) 60.8 (104)
51.1 (88) 55.9 (96) 60.8 (104)
53.5 (92) 58.4 (100) 63.2 (108)
57.6 (99) 62.4 (107) 67.3 (115)
59.2 (101) 64 (110) 68.9 (118)
Temperature
Change
–20%
+0.5
+1.5
+2
+3
+4
+4.5
65.7 (113)
65.7 (113)
68.1 (117)
72.2 (124)
73.8 (126)
Note: Baseline temperature and precipitation gives an average of 48.7 million acre-feet (MAF) of
snowmelt and 9.7 MAF of ice melt, for a total baseline of 58.4 MAF.
By World Bank 2013
Percentage Change in the future water availability under near(2013–2030) and far-future (2087–2097) climate change scenarios.
(By Shabeh ul Hasson 2016 using UBCWSM )
Percentage Change
Range
Maximum
Minimum
Median
% Change
Near-Future
(2013-2030)
% Change
Far-Future
(2087-2097)
% Change
Far-Future
(2087-2097)
% Change
Far-Future
(2087-2097)
Glacier Cover Intact
Glacier Cover Intact
Glacier Cover
(-50%)
No Glacier Cover
(-100%)
-5.8
-9.9
-7.5
96
220
163
-4
54
24
-22
-51
-40
Author recognizes falling summer temperatures in Upper Indus Basin resulting in falling river flows in near
future
Conclusion
• Given the orographic complexity of the Upper Indus Basin, future
climate impacts are highly uncertain.
• Because of the complexities at these high elevations, general
circulation models (GCMs) are unlikely to have much value for
forecasting purposes.
• Very little information is available about the moisture input into the
UIB above 4500 meters a.s.l.
• Very crude estimation is available about the water held in UIB
glaciers.
• There is uncertainty in the relative contribution of snow, ice, rain and
ground water in the river Indus annual flows
Recommendations
• There is a need for major investment in snow and ice hydrology monitoring
stations, further scientific research, and forecasting to improve the
hydrologic predictability of the Upper Indus Basin.
• There is a need for establishing few high scientific grade automatic weather
stations above 4500 masl to gauge the moisture input in the UIB.
• Develop transboundary data sharing mechanism to understand the
environmental and climatic conditions of Upper Indus Basin lying in India;
China; Afghanistan and Pakistan.
• Develop a mechanism for knowledge exchange program among the
scientific community and policy makers to build a consensus on sustainable
development of Indus Basin without compromising on the environment.
• Arrange Indus Forum partners field visits in the catchments of all UIB
sharing countries
Thanks
CHANGES IN TOTAL RIVER INFLOWS UNDER VARIOUS CLIMATE
CHANGE SCENARIOS (MAF)
6
Changes in River Flows (MAF)
4
2
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-2
-4
-6
-8
Months
+ 2C + No CHGP
+2C -20% P
+2C +20%P
GISS +30%P
Godard Institute of Space Sciences +3.2°C Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab NOAA + 4.7°C
ΔQ = -16% to +11%
GFDL +20%P
Western Rivers Inflows During Decades
Indus at Tarbela; Kabul at Nowshera; Jhelum at Mangla ; Chenab at Marala
140
Average = 130.45 MAF
137.22
135
132.83
131.31
Inflow Volumes (MAF)
130
128.67
125
122.32
120
115
110
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2010