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Climate Change and Cryosphere Monitoring in Pakistan Danial Hashmi Former Project Director (GMRC-WAPDA) 1 Introduction • Pakistan is a Single River System Country • It highly depends on Indus River waters for its Indus Basin irrigated agriculture that contributes 22 percent to country’s GDP and provides direct employment to 44% of its population. About 70 - 80% of Indus River System inflows originates from the melting of snow and glaciers Indus River System annual average inflows are 144.57 MAF [1976-2015 Avge ] Large variability in annual water inflows. Varied between 99.05 MAF [2001-2] and 183.45 MAF [1978-79] With increase in Population, Pakistan is becoming a water stressed country. From 5650m³/cap water available in 1951 to about 1000 m³/ cap in 2010. Cryosphere Monitoring by WAPDA 1960s • Installation of river gauging network and valley bottom weather stations. 1961-1969 • Snow surveys were carried out in Kaghan valley. 1975-1979 • LandSat imageries: Correlations between depleting snow cover and river flow 1985-1989 • WAPDA in collaboration with Canadian Universities carried out UIB snow and glacier field studies to develop flow forecasting system for UIB Rivers. 1991-1997 • WAPDA established high-altitude (2200-4800 m.a.s.l.) network in UIB comprising 20 weather stations. • Record, collect & transmit hourly weather data to Flow Forecasting Centre Lahore . • High-altitude data and UBC Watershed Model are being used for forecasting flows on seasonal (Rabi and Kharif) and short-term (10-Daily) since 2003 for water management in Indus River System. 3 Upper Indus Basin Studies by WAPDA Cont… • Mass-Balance of selected glaciers of Karakoram and Himalayas were carried out. • Avalanche studies in Kunhar Basin including hydrology of avalanches were also carried out. • Ken Hewitt with WAPDA Staff studied potential Glacial Lakes sites in Upper Indus Basin • During 1989 Dr. Gordon Young carried out sedimentation studies of Batura and Passu Glacier, Central Hunza, with the students of University of Manchester and WAPDA staff. • Ablation gradient of Passu glacier for year 1988 and 1989 was also studied during this period. Upper Indus Basin-Glacier and Rivers Hispar (53 Km) Khunjerab Pass Batura (60 Km) Glaciers Biafo (68 km) Siachen (75 km) • Over 5000 Glaciated area K-2 Gilgit • 20,000 km2 Indus River Reservoirs • Glaciers act as reservoirs Contribution of Snow & Ice • 85% towards annual runoff in the Indus Kabul River Line of Control Tarbela Dam Jhelum River Islamabad Mangla Dam 6 Snow Sampling Shark Col Snow Pit (5660 m) (Snow Lake feeding Biafo Glacier) 7 Preparation for Stake Survey 8 MIAR GLACIER,HUNZA(1989) -KARAKORAM Depth Profile of Miar Glacier - 1989 (using Radio-echo soundings) Research Studies Some outcomes • There are more than 5000 glaciers in the Indus catchment covering an area of more than 13000 Km2, but out of these about 100 glaciers covers more than 85% of total glaciated area. Ice melt from these big glaciers are contributing bulk of the water in the Upper Indus River. • The bulk of all UIB precipitation occurs in an altitudinal zone of 2500 – 6000 m elevation. • The elevation of maximum precipitation is at about 5000m in the Western Karakorams and 6000m in Eastern Karakorams. • Annual Average Precipitation is in the order of 1000 – 1800 mm of Snow Water Equivalent • Most of the UIB glaciers are fed by snow avalanching and are Debris Covered • Active melting zone of glaciers is between 3000 to 4800 meters above sea level. Climate Change Studies in WAPDA • In Collaboration with the University of Colorado, Boulder, USA WAPDA studied Impact on the flows of River Indus due to Climate Change 1991. • Dr. James Wescoat was the Principal investigator in this study. • UBC Watershed Model was used to generate future flow scenarios. • This study using GCM’s from Goddard Institute of Space Sciences (GISS) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) predicted 3.2°C and 4.7°C increase in temperature respectively by doubling CO2 from 1991 Level shown change in total annual river inflows by -16% to +11% Pakistan Snow and Ice Hydrology Project -II • On the findings of 1985-1989 Second Phase of PSIHP was initiated in 1991 and continued till 1997. • In this phase 20 High Altitude automatic weather stations in the elevation zone of 2200 to 4800 meters a.s.l. were installed in Upper Indus Basin • The data from these stations is being collected and transmitted to Lahore Forecasting Centre through Meteorburst Communication System since 1993. • A hydrologic Model from the University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada was obtained and calibrated for the hydrologic conditions of Upper Indus Basin. WAPDA TYPICAL DCP STATION SENSORS INSTALLED •Precipitation •Wind •Temperature & Relative Humidity •Solar Radiation • Temperature • Precipitation • Relative Humidity • Solar Radiation • Snow Water Equivalent • Wind (Speed; Direction) •Snow Water Equivalent Babusar Pass (4210masl) 15 Automatic Weather Station - Shogran WAPDA Snow and Ice Hydrology Project -II • The UBC Watershed model is being used for developing and issuing flow forecasts to the Water Managers of the country since 2004. • In this operational phase Seasonal (Kharif and Rabi) and Short Term (10-Daily) flow forecasts of River Indus at Tarbela Reservoir, River Jhelum at Mangla Reservoir and that of River Kabul at Nowshera are prepared and issued. • The forecasts are used by IRSA and WAPDA Authority for water management of Indus River System and optimum production of Hydropower. Seasonal Flow Forecasts using UBC Watershed Model Kharif Season (Apr-Sep) 2016 53.8 50.0 Forecast Observed 54.0 40.0 30.0 17.3 15.2 10.0 17.5 20.0 18.0 Flow Volume in million acre-feet (maf) 60.0 0.0 Tarbela Mangla Kabul SWE confirmation at SHOGRAN 26-Jun 19-Jun 12-Jun 5-Jun 29-May 22-May 15-May 8-May 1-May 24-Apr 17-Apr 10-Apr 3-Apr 27-Mar 20-Mar 13-Mar 6-Mar 28-Feb 21-Feb 14-Feb 7-Feb 31-Jan 24-Jan 17-Jan 10-Jan 3-Jan 27-Dec 20-Dec 13-Dec 6-Dec 500 29-Nov 600 22-Nov 15-Nov 8-Nov 1-Nov Snow water equivalent(mm) Snow Water Equivalent- DCP Station DEOSAI (3910 m.a.s.l.) 700 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 400 300 200 100 0 UIB Percent Snow Cover Area (2001-2015) (Extracted from MODIS Daily Data) 70 64 62 60 58 53 50 46 38 40 33 30 24 23 20 14 12 10 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Source: Glacier Monitoring Research Centre - WAPDA Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec WAPDA DCP Station (4750 m.a.s.l.) at Khunjerab SENSORS INSTALLED • Temperature • Precipitation • Relative Humidity • Solar Radiation • Snow Water Equivalent • Wind (Speed; Direction) 22 Temperature Change at WAPDA Weather Station Khunjerab Period: 1995 - 2010 , Elevation 4710 m.a.s.l 4 3.01 3 Temperature Chnage ( degree celcius) 2.58 Overall Observation: Over all temperature increase Day time temperature increase Night time temperature increase Summer temperatute decrease 2.45 2 = = = = 0.78 °C 0.54 °C 1.02 °C -1.80 °C 1.63 1.17 1 0.75 0.82 0.57 0.10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep -0.56 -1 -1.56 -2 -1.56 Oct Nov Dec Change in Annual and Seasonal Mean Temperatures (1960 – 2007) Source : Pakistan Meteorological Department Post Treaty Western Rivers Inflow Trend 160 150 130 120 110 Falling Trend Man-Kendall Trend Significance Level = 69% Annual Average (1961-2014) = 129.833 MAF 100 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 1963 90 1961 Inflows (maf) 140 Trend Statistics for Western Rivers Inflow Method Used: Mann-Kendall ; Period 1962 – 2014; n = 53 Indus at Tarbela Kabul at Nowshera Jhelum at Mangla Chenab at Marala Annl Q (maf) Trend Sig. Lvl Annl Q (maf) Trend Sig. Lvl Annl Q (maf) Trend Sig. Lvl Annl Q (maf) Trend Sig. Lvl Jan 1.013 Rising 95% 0.628 Rising 88% 0.530 Rising 61% 0.570 Rising 82% Feb 0.988 Rising 100% 0.587 Rising 98% 0.795 Rising 95% 0.706 Rising 69% Mar 1.410 Rising 99% 1.014 Rising 84% 1.776 Rising 91% 1.242 Rising 15% Apr 2.010 Rising 24% 2.037 Falling 58% 2.711 Rising 29% 1.475 Falling 35% May 4.479 Rising 100% 3.129 Falling 40% 3.608 Falling 1% 2.283 Rising 61% Jun 9.959 Falling 85% 4.012 Falling 96% 3.520 Falling 96% 3.528 Falling 84% Jul 15.012 Falling 92% 4.156 Falling 91% 3.325 Falling 92% 5.327 Falling 92% Aug 14.082 Falling 92% 3.010 Falling 88% 2.610 Falling 84% 5.407 Falling 93% Sep 6.380 Rising 13% 1.326 Rising 14% 1.536 Rising 50% 2.763 Rising 1% Oct 2.473 Rising 96% 0.700 Rising 84% 0.797 Falling 24% 0.943 Rising 70% Nov 1.496 Rising 100% 0.549 Rising 1% 0.548 Falling 6% 0.525 Rising 69% Dec 1.186 Rising 99% 0.549 Falling 58% 0.521 Rising 32% 0.489 Rising 33% WAPDA Field Activities 2013, 2014 and 2015 2016 • Glacier Field Investigation (Melt behaviour) • Pasu Glacier • Miar-Sumiyarbar-Barpur System • Biafo Glacier • Stakes, surface velocity, weather data recording, discharge observations, GPR Survey etc. • Glacier Field Investigations • Raikot Glacier (Himalayan Range) • GPR Survey on Raikot Glacier • Snout surveys for glaciers in the Hunza River Basin • Pasu • Barpu • Hoper • Yazghill • Malungutti • Khurdopin & Yushkin Gardan • Virjerab • Glacier Snout Surveys • Gulkin, Gulmit, Batura, Passu, Yashkuk Yaz, Mohmil, Lopghau and Raikot. • Biafo and Baltoro planned in October. • Discharge Measurements • Nagar River • Hispar River • Shimshall River • Raikot Stream • Permafrost Monitoring (Deosai Plateau) 27 GMRC – WAPDA Field Team GMRC-Chinese Team at Barpu Galcier GMRC Team at Attabad Lake (Hunza) 28 Setting up stakes at Passu Glacier , Hunza Basin Setting Automatic Weather Station at Passu Surveying movement of stakes at Passu Discharge measurements at Passu outlet 6/17/2011 6/10/2011 6/3/2011 5/27/2011 5/20/2011 5/13/2011 5/6/2011 4/29/2011 4/22/2011 4/15/2011 4/8/2011 4/1/2011 3/25/2011 3/18/2011 River Levels (m) Passu Outlet River Levels 1.6 Q = 41.5 cms 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Nagar Valley: Temperature & Glacial Melt (July 2015) Temperature (Hoper) July 2015 Maximum Daily Temperature (oC 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 AWS 15.0 10.0 Nagar River Discharge July 2015 Catchment of Nagar River Maximum Daily Discharge in Cusecs 25000 20000 ARL 15000 10000 5000 0 34 Glacier Snout Surveys WAPDA Passu Glacier Studies (initial work during 2010-11 in collaboration with ICIMOD) 36 Melt Rates for Biafo Glacier. Shigar Basin Jul-Sep (2015) Biafo Glacier Sr. No. Profiles 1 2 3 Mango Profile El. 3679 m 4 5 6 Baintha Profile El. 4051 m Average Ablation Rates (cm/day) Day wise Stake wise Net Ablation Rates (cm/day) July (11-31) 6.9 6.6 6.8 August 5.2 5.2 5.2 Sep. (1-9) 3.2 3.2 3.2 July (11-31) 6.5 6.6 6.5 August 5.0 5.0 5.0 Sep. (1-9) 4.1 4.1 4.1 Month 37 GPR Survey, Barpu Glacier 38 GPR Survey for Raikot Glacier Profile 1 3360 81.8 m Elevation (m.a.s.l) 3380 3340 3320 RC-3 PR1-2 86.9 m PR1-1 105.5 m 3400 3300 3280 Glacier Surface 3260 Glacier Bed 3240 0 100 200 300 400 500 Distance from Glacier's Left Edge (m) Profile 2 3550 RC-6 600 700 PR2-2 114 m 3450 139.3 m 3500 122.4 m Elevation (m.a.s.l) PR2-1 3400 Glacier Surface Series2 3350 0 200 400 600 Distance from Glacier's Left Edge (m) 800 39 Permafrost Monitoring at Deosai Plateau Collaboration with the Institute of Tibetan Plateau - Chinese Academy of Sciences (ITP-CAS) • 5 meters pit excavated for the installation of sensors • Monitor the soil temperature/moisture profiles distribution • 10 sensors were installed to measure: • soil moisture • Temperature • 3 also measure electric conductivity 40 Soil Sampling & Sensor Installation at Deosai Plateau Elevation: 4000 meters.a.s.l 41 WAPDA Future Program - Isotope Analysis To assess the relative contribution of Snow, Glacier, Rain and Ground Water in River Flows • Proposed sites for Sampling : 1. Indus River at Kharmong 2. Indus River at Kachura 3. Indus River at Bunji / Partab Bridge 4. Indus River at Besham Qila 5. Gilgit River at Gilgit 6. Hunza River at Dainyor 7. Astore River at Doyian • Other suitable sites to be identified To be carried out by WAPDA in collaboration with Institute of Tibetan Plateau, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ITP-CAS) 42 Extension in GMRC-WAPDA High-Altitude Hydromet Network Note: Tarbela Average Inflows (1961 – 1999) = 61.5 MAF World Bank Report 2005 44 Tarbela Average Decadal Flows 65 63.85 64 62.98 63 Avg = 61.482 maf Inflow Volumes (maf) 62 61.03 61 60 59 58.37 58.13 58 57 56 55 1961-1969 1969-1979 1979-1989 1989-1999 1999-2009 Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on Indus River Flows at Bisham Qila (Just above Tarbela Reservoir) Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS): Temp: +3°C, Glacier Area: - 50% Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004 Discharge (Cumecs) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Main Results: Source: GSISC - Pakistan Base Runoff CCS Runoff Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt 1. Annual flows reduced by 15% 2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 0 First-Order Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Discharge into the Indus Main Stem Precipitation changes, MAF (percentage of baseline) –10% No Change 10% 20% 45.4 (78) 50.3 (86) 55.1 (94) 60 (103) 64.9 (111) 46.2 (79) 46.2 (79) 48.6 (83) 52.7 (90) 54.3 (93) 51.1 (88) 55.9 (96) 60.8 (104) 51.1 (88) 55.9 (96) 60.8 (104) 53.5 (92) 58.4 (100) 63.2 (108) 57.6 (99) 62.4 (107) 67.3 (115) 59.2 (101) 64 (110) 68.9 (118) Temperature Change –20% +0.5 +1.5 +2 +3 +4 +4.5 65.7 (113) 65.7 (113) 68.1 (117) 72.2 (124) 73.8 (126) Note: Baseline temperature and precipitation gives an average of 48.7 million acre-feet (MAF) of snowmelt and 9.7 MAF of ice melt, for a total baseline of 58.4 MAF. By World Bank 2013 Percentage Change in the future water availability under near(2013–2030) and far-future (2087–2097) climate change scenarios. (By Shabeh ul Hasson 2016 using UBCWSM ) Percentage Change Range Maximum Minimum Median % Change Near-Future (2013-2030) % Change Far-Future (2087-2097) % Change Far-Future (2087-2097) % Change Far-Future (2087-2097) Glacier Cover Intact Glacier Cover Intact Glacier Cover (-50%) No Glacier Cover (-100%) -5.8 -9.9 -7.5 96 220 163 -4 54 24 -22 -51 -40 Author recognizes falling summer temperatures in Upper Indus Basin resulting in falling river flows in near future Conclusion • Given the orographic complexity of the Upper Indus Basin, future climate impacts are highly uncertain. • Because of the complexities at these high elevations, general circulation models (GCMs) are unlikely to have much value for forecasting purposes. • Very little information is available about the moisture input into the UIB above 4500 meters a.s.l. • Very crude estimation is available about the water held in UIB glaciers. • There is uncertainty in the relative contribution of snow, ice, rain and ground water in the river Indus annual flows Recommendations • There is a need for major investment in snow and ice hydrology monitoring stations, further scientific research, and forecasting to improve the hydrologic predictability of the Upper Indus Basin. • There is a need for establishing few high scientific grade automatic weather stations above 4500 masl to gauge the moisture input in the UIB. • Develop transboundary data sharing mechanism to understand the environmental and climatic conditions of Upper Indus Basin lying in India; China; Afghanistan and Pakistan. • Develop a mechanism for knowledge exchange program among the scientific community and policy makers to build a consensus on sustainable development of Indus Basin without compromising on the environment. • Arrange Indus Forum partners field visits in the catchments of all UIB sharing countries Thanks CHANGES IN TOTAL RIVER INFLOWS UNDER VARIOUS CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS (MAF) 6 Changes in River Flows (MAF) 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -2 -4 -6 -8 Months + 2C + No CHGP +2C -20% P +2C +20%P GISS +30%P Godard Institute of Space Sciences +3.2°C Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab NOAA + 4.7°C ΔQ = -16% to +11% GFDL +20%P Western Rivers Inflows During Decades Indus at Tarbela; Kabul at Nowshera; Jhelum at Mangla ; Chenab at Marala 140 Average = 130.45 MAF 137.22 135 132.83 131.31 Inflow Volumes (MAF) 130 128.67 125 122.32 120 115 110 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010