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Behaviour & Environmental Impacts of Crude Oil Released into Aqueous Environments Interview with: Dagmar Schmidt Etkin, PhD Environmental Research Consulting Cortlandt Manor, New York, USA 8 April 2015 Introduction Dagmar Schmidt Etkin PhD Harvard University, Organismic/Evolutionary Biology (ecology, statistics, modeling), 1982 MA Harvard University, Biology, 1980 BA University of Rochester, Biology, 1977 14 years investigating and modeling population biology and ecological systems 26 years on ecological/environmental risk assessment of oil spills 11 years as researcher with Oil Spill Intelligence Report 15 years as independent consultant to governments, UN, industry, NGOs Ecological/Environmental Risk Assessment Risk = Probability x Consequences Probability Analyses Consequence Analyses Likelihood of spills Tanker/vessel spills Pipeline spills Well blowouts Crude by rail spills Spill locations Vessel collisions/groundings Derailments Prevention measure effectiveness Changes with new frontiers Deeper offshore wells Arctic exploration Crude by rail Spill volumes by source/cause Impacts by oil type Impacts by location type Seasonal variations Modeling and analyzing impacts: Ecological systems/habitats/wildlife Socioeconomic resources Costs of response Impact mitigation through spill response measures RSC Panel Concerns How do the various types of crude oils compare in the way they behave when mixed with surface fresh, brackish or sea waters under a range of environmental conditions? How do the various crude oils compare in their chemical composition and toxicity to organisms in aquatic ecosystems? How do microbial processes affect crude oils in aquatic ecosystems, thereby modifying their physical and chemical properties and toxicity? Is the research community able to relate, with reliable predictions, the chemical, physical and biological properties of crudes to their behaviour, toxicity and ability to be remediated in water and sediments? Given the current state of the science, what are the priorities for research investments? How should these scientific insights be used to inform optimal strategies for spill preparedness, spill response and environmental remediation? RSC Panel Concerns How do the various types of crude oils compare in the way they behave when mixed with surface fresh, brackish or sea waters under a range of environmental conditions? How do the various crude oils compare in their chemical composition and toxicity to organisms in aquatic ecosystems? How do microbial processes affect crude oils in aquatic ecosystems, thereby modifying their physical and chemical properties and toxicity? Is the research community able to relate, with reliable predictions, the chemical, physical and biological properties of crudes to their behaviour, toxicity and ability to be remediated in water and sediments? Given the current state of the science, what are the priorities for research investments? How should these scientific insights be used to inform optimal strategies for spill preparedness, spill response and environmental remediation? RSC Panel Concerns How do the various types of crude oils compare in the way they behave when mixed with surface fresh, brackish or sea waters under a range of environmental conditions? How do the various crude oils compare in their chemical composition and toxicity to organisms in aquatic ecosystems? How do microbial processes affect crude oils in aquatic ecosystems, thereby modifying their physical and chemical properties and toxicity? Is the research community able to relate, with reliable predictions, the chemical, physical and biological properties of crudes to their behaviour, toxicity and ability to be remediated in water and sediments? Given the current state of the science, what are the priorities for research investments? How should these scientific insights be used to inform optimal strategies for spill preparedness, spill response and environmental remediation? Recent Changes Driving Policy-Making Unprecedented increase in transport of crude oil by rail Potential for spills in new locations (populated areas, streams, rivers) New types of crudes being transported in large quantities Bakken crude (concerns about volatility/flammability) Oil sands/bitumen blends (concerns about submergence) Offshore drilling in new frontiers Deeper waters, deeper reservoirs, higher pressures Potential for blowout scenarios many times the magnitude of MC252 New Arctic areas Increasing concerns about potentially-polluting sunken wrecks and protocols/availability of funds to address them Discovery of submerged oil associated with MC252 spill Relevant Projects to Inform RSC Panel Alaska/Arctic Oil Spill Risk Analysis (NOAA) Model for ecological risk – probability x impacts Washington State Marine & Rail Oil Transport Study (Ecology) Response and impact implications of Bakken crude and diluted bitumen transport in inland areas and marine/estuarine waters Offshore Well Blowout Probability Analysis Analysis of Potential Offshore Well Blowouts (BSEE) Gulf of Mexico, California, Chukchi/Beaufort Seas Modeling of worst-case scenarios, trajectory, fate, spill response Modeling of subsea dispersant applications Risk Assessment of Potentially-Polluting Wrecks (NOAA/USCG) Submerged Oil Monitoring/Removal Program (Louisiana) Ecological Risk Model for Industry Database of 1,200+ literature review of ecological impacts, 220 spill cases Research Priorities to Inform Ecological Risk Assessments and Policy-Making Behaviour of oil in offshore well blowouts (esp. with greater water depths, reservoir depths, pressures) Effectiveness of subsea dispersants Biodegradation of subsea-dispersed oil Behaviour of Bakken crude in marine/fresh water Weathering, shoreline penetration, toxicity Behaviour of diluted bitumen in marine/fresh water Submergence, shoreline penetration, toxicity Behaviour/character of oils at depth (sunken wrecks)