Download Vietnam - Harvard Business School

Vietnam’s
Vietnam
s Competitiveness
Professor Michael E. Porter
Harvard Business School
Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
December 1, 2008
This p
presentation draws on ideas from Professor Porter’s books and articles,, in p
particular,, Competitive
p
Strategy
gy ((The Free Press,, 1980);
); Competitive
p
Advantage (The Free Press, 1985); “What is Strategy?” (Harvard Business Review, Nov/Dec 1996); “Strategy and the Internet” (Harvard Business
Review, March 2001); and a forthcoming book. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or
by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of Michael E. Porter. Additional information may
be found at the website of the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, www.isc.hbs.edu. Version: November 18, 2008, 3pm
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
1
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
The Need For An Economic Strategy
• Vietnam has experienced an impressive growth over the last two
decades
• However, reforms so far are insufficient to move Vietnam to a middle
income economy
• The next several years will determine whether Vietnam will follow the
experience of Korea, or the Philippines
• Vietnam’s
Vi t
’ reform
f
h
have b
been piecemeal
i
l and
d reactive
ti
• Improving Vietnam’s standard of living will require a long term
economic strategy
– A set of interrelated policy changes, institutional structures, and
rigorous implementation mechanisms
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
2
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Agenda
• Understanding Vietnam’s Economic Performance
• Assessing Vietnamese Competitiveness
• Identifying
Id tif i Action
A ti
Priorities
P i iti
• Organizing for Competitiveness
• Creating an Economic Strategy
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
3
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Prosperity Performance
Selected Countries
PPP-adjusted GDP
per Capita, 2007
$45,000
USA
Ireland
$40,000
Hong
g Kong
g
Singapore
Switzerland
Iceland
Netherlands
Canada
Australia
Austria
Sweden
Finland
UK
Germany
Taiwan
Japan
France
Bahrain
Ital
Italy
Spain
Greece
$35,000
$30,000
$
,
New Zealand
$25,000
Israel
Slovenia
Korea
Czech Republic
Saudi Arabia
Portugal
$20 000
$20,000
Estonia
Slovakia
Hungary
Lithuania
$15,000
Croatia
Mexico
$10 000
$10,000
Malaysia
Poland
Chile
Costa Rica
South Africa
Turkey
Brazil
Thailand
Colombia
Egypt
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
Nigeria
Bangladesh
$5,000
$0
0%
2%
Latvia
Russia
Argentina
Romania
Vietnam
Sri Lanka
China
India
Cambodia
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Growth of Real GDP per Capita (PPP-adjusted), CAGR, 2003-2007
Source: EIU (2008), authors calculations
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
4
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Labor Force Utilization
Labor Force
Participation Rate, 2007
65%
Participation Rates, Selected Countries
Singapore (6.16%)
China
60%
Iceland
Norway
55%
50%
Brazil
45%
Colombia
40%
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Hong Kong
Canada
Portugal
Sweden
J
Japan
Czech
Rep.
New Zealand
Germany
Finland
USA UK
South Korea
Slovakia
Lithuania
Indonesia
India
F
France
Bangladesh
Poland
Romania
Austria
Hungary
Italy
Mexico Argentina
Malaysia
Vietnam
Australia
Russia
Ireland
Latvia
Spain
Taiwan
Slovenia
Chile
Philippines
Nicaragua
Morocco
35%
Bulgaria
Turkey
30%
-3%
Pakistan
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Change in Labor Force Participation Rate, 2003-2007
4%
5%
6%
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (2008)
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
5
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Comparative Labor Productivity
GDP per employee
(PPP adjusted US$),
2007
Selected Countries
USA
Hong Kong
Ireland
France
Finland
UK
Sweden
Denmark Singapore
Taiwan
Japan
Iceland
Germany
Israel
Switzerland
South Korea
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
New Zealand
Norway
Australia
Canada
Italy Austria
Chile
Saudi Arabia
Portugal
Estonia
Slovakia
Latvia
Malaysia
Lith
Lithuania
i
Turkey
Czech Republic
Croatia Hungary
Kazakhstan
Mexico
Colombia
Costa Rica
Russia
Syria
Bulgaria
Tunisia
Thailand
Sri Lanka
Iran
Peru
Egypt
South Africa
Ecuador
Ukraine
Brazil
Indonesia
Yemen
Pakistan
Philippines
Dominican Republic
India
Nigeria
Cambodia
Cote d’Ivoire Senegal
Bangladesh
Kenya
Ethiopia
Ghana
Argentina
Poland
Venezuela
Belarus
China
Vietnam
Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of real GDP per employee
(PPP-adjusted), 2003-2007
Source: authors calculation Groningen Growth and Development Centre (2008)
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
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Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Contribution to
Annual GDP
growth (%)
Decomposition of Vietnamese Growth
10%
Capital
Labor
TFP
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Ohno (2008)
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
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Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Domestic Fixed Investment Rates
Selected Countries
Gross Fixed Investment
as % of GDP (2007)
36%
34%
China (40.4%)
Latvia
India
Vietnam
32%
Estonia
Croatia
Spain
30%
Kazakhstan
Korea
Slovenia
28%
Australia
Slovakia
Thailand
26%
24%
22%
20%
18%
Greece
Singapore
Ireland
Czech Republic
Tunisia
Japan
Ukraine
New Zealand
Iceland
R
Romania
i
Lithuania
Colombia
Indonesia
Venezuela
Argentina
Denmark
Poland
Malaysia Italy Mexico
Portugal
Cambodia Egypt
Pakistan
France
Turkey
Hungary Austria
Russi
Finland aKenya South Africa
Chile
Hong Kong
Netherlands
Norway
Saudi Arabia
Sweden
Germany
UK
Brazil
Dominican Republic
Canada
16%
14%
-4%
Sri Lanka
USA
Philippines
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Change in Gross Fixed Investment (as % of GDP), 2003 - 2007
Note: Includes inbound FDI
Source: EIU, 2008
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
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Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Inbound Foreign Investment Performance
Stocks and Flows, Selected Countries
Inward FDI Stocks as % of
GDP Average 2003 - 2007
GDP,
80%
Netherlands
Estonia
Singapore
(160.1%, 64.7%)
70%
Vietnam
Chile
Hungary
60%
Switzerland
New Zealand
Sweden
Slovakia
Czech Republic
50%
Denmark
Australi
a
South Africa
30%
10%
y
Germany
Greece
USA
South Korea
Indonesia
Japan
0%
-5%
0%
Indi
a
5%
UK
Spain
Norway
Slovenia
20%
Cambodia
Portugal
40%
Thailan
Philippines
Canad d
Latvia
Poland
a
Finland Lithuania
France
Colombia
Mexico
Laos
Austria
Russia
Brazil
Turkey
Italy
Malaysia
China
Pakista
n
10%
Israel
Iceland (46.7%)
Saudi
Arabia
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
FDI Inflows as % of Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Average 2003 - 2007
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report (2007)
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
9
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Export Performance
Exports as Share of
GDP (in %, 2007)
Selected Countries
100%
Malaysia (116.4%)
90%
Slovakia
Belgium
Czech Republic
Ireland
80%
Estonia
Netherlands
Thailand
70%
Slovenia
60%
S di Arabia
Saudi
A bi
50%
Kazakhstan
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Hungary
Vietnam
Slovenia
Cambodia
Austria
Switzerland
Philippines
Croatia
South Korea
Finland Germany
Latvia
Norway
Chile
Ukraine
China
Poland
40%
South Africa
Egypt
Canada
Indonesia
Russia
France Portugal
Sri
Lanka
Venezuela
30%
Mexico
Italy
New Zealand
Dominican Republic
UK
Argentina
Colombi
Turkey
India Bangladesh
20%
a
Spain
Australia
Japan
Pakistan
Brazil
USA
10%
0%
-15%
-10%
Tunisia
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Ch
Change
off Exports
E
t as Share
Sh
off GDP,
GDP 2003 tto 2007
• Imports as a share of GDP are equally high
Source: EIU (2008), authors’ analysis
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
10
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Exports By Type of Industry
World Export Market
Share ((current USD))
Processed Goods
Semi-processed Goods
Unprocessed Goods
Services
TOTAL
0.8%
0 7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0 2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: UNComTrade, WTO (2008)
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
11
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Cluster Export Portfolio
2000-2006
5%
Change In Vietnam’s Overall
Growth In World Export Share:
0.25%
Footwear ((5.68%,, 1.91%))
Vietnam’s w
world export ma
arket share, 200
06
Fishing and Fishing
Products
4%
3%
Appare
l
2%
Coal & Briquettes
1%
T til
Textiles
Furnitur
e
Plastics
Tobacco
Vietnam’s Average World
Export Share: 0.31%
0%
-0.3%
-0.1%
0.3%
0.5%
0.7%
0.9%
1.1%
0% 0.1%
Change in Vietnam’s world export market share, 2000 – 2006
Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, International Cluster Competitiveness Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard
Business School; Richard Bryden, Project Director. Underlying data drawn from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database and the
12
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
IMF BOP statistics.
1.3%
1.5%
Exports of US$1.1 Billion
=
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Agenda
• Understanding Vietnam’s Economic Performance
• Assessing Vietnamese Competitiveness
• Identifying
Id tif i Action
A ti
Priorities
P i iti
• Organizing for Competitiveness
• Creating an Economic Strategy
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
13
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
What is Competitiveness?
• Competitiveness depends on the productivity with which a nation uses
its human, capital, and natural resources.
– P
Productivity
d ti it sets
t the
th sustainable
t i bl standard
t d d off living
li i
(
(wages,
returns
t
on
capital, returns on natural resources)
– It is not what industries a nation competes in that matters for prosperity, but
how productively it competes in those industries
– Productivity in a national economy arises from a combination of domestic
and foreign firms
– Th
The productivity
d ti it off “local”
“l
l” or domestic
d
ti industries
i d t i is
i ffundamental
d
t l tto
competitiveness, not just that of export industries
• Nations compete to offer the most productive environment for business
• The p
public and p
private sectors p
play
y different but interrelated roles in
creating a productive economy
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
14
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Determinants of Competitiveness
Microeconomic Competitiveness
p
Quality of the
National
Business
Environment
State of Cluster
Development
Sophistication
of Company
Operations and
Strategy
Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Social
Infrastructure
and Political
Institutions
Macroeconomic
Policies
Natural Endowments
• Macroeconomic competitiveness creates the potential for high productivity, but is
not sufficient
• Productivity ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic capability of
the economy and the sophistication of local competition
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
15
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Wage Level Comparison
Selected Countries
Monthly Minimum Wage
USD, log scale, 2008
$3,000
Ireland
United Kingdom
Italy
$1,000
Japan / Belgium / France
N
Z
Zealand
l d
Spain New
Greece
Slovenia
Portugal
Poland Slovakia
Hungary
$500
Latvia
$100
Bulgaria
Th il d
Thailand
AustriaNetherlands
Australia
Taiwan
Korea
Czech Republic
p
Cyprus
Singapore
Estonia
Lithuania
Romania
Germany
Denmark
Sweden
Malaysia
China
Philippines Indonesia
$50
Cambodia
Vietnam
$0
Global Competitiveness Index Score, 2008
Source: Global Competitiveness Report, 2008; EuroStat, 2008; Philippines Department of Labor and Employment,
16
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
2008
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Rate of Competitiveness Improvement
Low Income Countries, 2002 - 2007
BCI Value, 2007
High
India
Indonesia
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
El Salvador
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Low
Zimbabwe
Nigeria
Pakistan
Gambia
Mali
Honduras
Madagascar
M
d
Nicaragua
Ethiopia
Mozambique
Bangladesh
Paraguay Bolivia
Chad
Below average
Average
Above average
Dynamism Score, 2002 - 2007
Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2007
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
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Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Social Infrastructure and
Political Institutions
•
Basic human capacity
–
–
•
•
Basic education
Health system
Fiscal policy
–
–
–
Political institutions
–
–
–
–
–
•
Macroeconomic
Policies
•
Political freedom
Voice and accountability
Political stability
Centralization of economic policymaking
Government effectiveness
Government surplus/deficit
Government debt
Savings / Investment rates
Monetary policy
–
–
Inflation
Interest rate spread
Rule of law
–
–
–
–
–
–
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
Judicial independence
Efficiency of legal framework
Civil rights
Business costs of corruption
Reliability of police
Prevalence and costs of crime
18
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Vietnam’s Position
Social Infrastructure and
Political Institutions
Macroeconomic
Policies
Basic health and education
+ Solid provision of basic services
Fiscal policy
+ Government budget and debt at acceptable
levels
– Government budget still reliant on foreign aid
– Increasing concerns about the quality of these
public services
Political institutions
+ High levels of political stability
Monetary Policy
– High levels of inflation
+ Increasing decentralization of economic
policy responsibilities
– Little effective policy dialogue
– Corruption remains a significant challenge
Rule of law
+ Quality of laws tends to be good
– Effectiveness of implementation
p
remains
weak
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
19
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Governance Indicators
Selected Countries
Best
country in
the world
Voice and Accountability
Political Stability
Government Effectiveness
Regulatory Quality
Rule of Law
Control of Corruption
Index of
Governance
Q lit
Quality,
2007
ta
n
kis
os
Pa
La
h
es
ad
ng
l
Ba
C
am
bo
di
a
ia
us
s
R
na
m
a
Vi
et
hi
n
C
ia
es
on
In
d
ilip
pi
ne
s
ka
an
Ph
Sr
iL
ai
la
nd
ia
Th
In
d
il
Br
az
ay
sia
an
M
al
iw
Ta
re
a
Ko
n
pa
ut
h
Ja
So
Si
ng
ap
or
e
Worst
country in
the world
Note: Sorted left to right by decreasing average value across all indicators. The ‘zero’ horizontal line corresponds to the median country’s average value across all
indicators.
20
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Source: World Bank (2008)
Corruption Perception Index, 2007
1
Finland
New Zealand
Sweden
Improving
Iceland
Switzerland
Norway
Canada
UK
Hong Kong Austria
Germany
Ireland
Japan
United States
France
C
Chile
Spain
Uruguay
Portugal
Estonia
Slovenia
Taiwan
Czech Republic
Hungary
South Korea
Malaysia
Italy
South Africa
Lithuania
Slovakia
Latvia
Jordan
Greece
Poland
Turkey
Croatia
Deteriorating
Low
corruption
Israel
Rank in
Global
Corruption
Index,
2007
Tunisia
Brazil
Peru
Panama
P
Egypt
Mexico
Colombia
China
Senegal
Romania
India
Thailand
Argentina
T
Tanzania
i
Uganda
Vietnam
Philippines
High
corruption
91
Pakistan
Russia
Cote d’Ivoire
d Ivoire
Zimbabwe
Indonesia
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Venezuela
-20
Ukraine
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Change in Rank
Rank, Global Corruption Report,
Report 2007 versus 2001
Note:
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
Ranks only countries available in both years (91 countries total)
Source: Global Corruption Report, 2007
21
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Microeconomic Competitiveness: Quality of the
Business Environment
Context for
Firm
Strategy
and Rivalry
z
– e.g. incentives for capital
investments, intellectual property
protection
Factor
(Input)
Conditions
z
z
Local rules and incentives that
encourage investment and
productivity
Vigorous local competition
– Openness to foreign and local
competition
Access to high quality
business inputs
Human resources
Capital availability
Physical infrastructure
Administrative infrastructure
(e.g. registration, permitting)
– Information and transparency
– Scientific and technological
infrastructure
Demand
Conditions
–
–
–
–
Related and
Supporting
Industries
z
z
Sophistication of local
customers and needs
– e.g.,
e g strict quality
quality, safety
safety,
and environmental
standards
Availability of suppliers and
supporting industries
• Many things matter for competitiveness
• Successful economic development is a process of successive upgrading, in which the business
environment improves to enable increasingly sophisticated ways of competing
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
22
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnamese Business Environment
Vietnam’s Relative Position 2008
Competitive Advantages
Competitive Disadvantages
• Communications infrastructure
(rank 72)
– E.g., quality of the telephone
infrastructure
• Local competition (rank 75)
– E.g., intensity of local
competition
• Government intervention (rank 119)
– E.g., SOE market dominance
• Trade barriers (rank 113)
– E.g., level of import tariffs
Note:
Rank versus 130 countries; overall, Vietnam ranks 102nd in 2008 PPP adjusted GDP per capita and 76th in New Global Competitiveness
Source: Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard University (2008)
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
23
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Openness to Trade
Rank (157
countries)
160
Selected Countries, 2008
140
Vietnam
120
100
80
60
40
Russia
India
Cambodia
Laos
Vietnam
Pakistan
South Korea
S
Sri Lanka
China
Brazil
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
Japan
New Zealand
N
Germany
Taiwan
Un
nited States
Singapore
0
Hong Kong
20
• Vietnam’s lack of openness will retard further competitiveness upgrading
Source: Index of Economic Freedom (2008), Heritage Foundation
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
24
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnamese Business Environment
Vietnam’s Relative Position 2008
Competitive Advantages
Competitive Disadvantages
• Communications infrastructure
(rank 72)
– E.g., quality of the telephone
infrastructure
• Local competition (rank 75)
– E.g., intensity of local
competition
• Government intervention (rank 119)
– E.g., SOE market dominance
• Trade barriers (rank 113)
– E.g., level of import tariffs
• Energy infrastructure (rank 109)
– E.g., quality of electricity supply
• Access to finance (rank 109)
– E.g., financial market sophistication
• Innovation infrastructure (rank 99)
– E.g.,
g , patents
pa e s per
pe capita
cap a
• Logistical infrastructure (rank 96)
– E.g., quality of roads
Note:
Rank versus 130 countries; overall, Vietnam ranks 102nd in 2008 PPP adjusted GDP per capita and 76th in New Global Competitiveness
Source: Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard University (2008)
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
25
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Cost of Doing Business
Ranking, 2008
(of 181 countries)
Favorable
Vietnam, 2008
Unfavorable
Median Ranking,
East Asia and Pacific
Vietnam’s per capita GDP rank: 70th
• Especially in land ownership in rural areas significant problems remain
Source: World Bank Report, Doing Business (2008)
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
26
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam
• SOEs continue to play a dominant role in the Vietnamese economy,
despite the commitment to privatization
• Government oversight of these companies and their spending is
limited and largely reactive
• The costs of slow progress on privatization are high for Vietnam’s
competitiveness
– Retards entry of new private companies
– Creates risks of corruption
– Can exacerbate economic volatility through excessive investment
financed through soft credit
• An effective privatization program strategy for Vietnam must shift
economic
i structure,
t
t
nott just
j t change
h
ownership
hi
– Privatization must go hand-in-hand with market opening and policies to
curtail anti-competitive practices
– Owners are needed that contribute new capital and skills
– Minority stakes can distribute ownership more widely
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
27
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
State of Cluster Development
Tourism Cluster in Cairns, Australia
Public
P
bli R
Relations
l i
&
Market Research
Services
Travel agents
Tour operators
Restaurants
Attractions and
Activities
Food
Suppliers
Local
Transportation
e.g.,
e
g theme parks,
parks
casinos, sports
Property
Services
Maintenance
Services
Locall retail,
L
t il
health care, and
other services
Souvenirs,
Duty Free
Airlines,
Cruise Ships
Hotels
Banks,
Foreign
Exchange
Government agencies
Educational Institutions
Industry Groups
e.g. Australian
A t li T
Tourism
i
C
Commission,
i i
Great Barrier Reef Authority
e.g. James
J
C
Cook
kU
University,
i
it
Cairns College of TAFE
e.g. Queensland
Q
l dT
Tourism
i
Industry Council
Sources: HBS student team research (2003) - Peter Tynan, Chai McConnell, Alexandra West, Jean Hayden
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
28
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Cluster Export Portfolio
2000-2006
5%
Change In Vietnam’s Overall
Growth In World Export Share:
0.25%
Footwear ((5.68%,, 1.91%))
Vietnam’s w
world export ma
arket share, 200
06
Fishing and Fishing
Products
4%
3%
Appare
l
2%
Coal & Briquettes
1%
T til
Textiles
Furnitur
e
Plastics
Tobacco
Vietnam’s Average World
Export Share: 0.31%
0%
-0.3%
-0.1%
0.3%
0.5%
0.7%
0.9%
1.1%
0% 0.1%
Change in Vietnam’s world export market share, 2000 – 2006
Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, International Cluster Competitiveness Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard
Business School; Richard Bryden, Project Director. Underlying data drawn from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database and the
29
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
IMF BOP statistics.
1.3%
1.5%
Exports of US$1.1 Billion
=
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Cluster Export Portfolio cont’d
2000-2006
Vietnam’s w
world export ma
arket share, 200
06
1.0%
Change
g In Vietnam’s Overall
Growth in World Export Share:
0.25%
0.8%
Agricultural Products
Leather and Related Products
Oil & Gas
0.6%
Building Fixtures and Equipment
Textiles
0 4%
0.4%
Sporting, Recreational
and Children's Goods
Communications Equipment
Total
Services
0 2%
0.2%
0.0%
Chemical Products
Medical Devices
Information
Technology
Jewelry, Precious Metals and
Analytical
Instruments
Collectibles
Biopharmaceuticals
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
Construction Materials
Vietnam’s Average
World Export
Share: 0.31%
Processed Foods
Lighting and Electrical Equipment
Publishing
g and Printing
g
Motor Driven
Forest Products
Products
Power and Power Generation Equipment
Entertainment
Prefabricated Enclosures and Structures
Metal Mining and Manufacturing
Production Technology
Automotive
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
Change in Vietnam’s world export market share, 2000 – 2006
Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, International Cluster Competitiveness Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard
Business School; Richard Bryden, Project Director. Underlying data drawn from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database and the
30
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
IMF BOP statistics.
Exports of US$1.1 Billion
=
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Share of World Exports by Cluster
Not reported
< 0.07%
Vietnam, 2000
0.07 – 0.15%
0.16 – 0.31%
0.31 – 0.62%
Fishing &
Fishing
Products
0.62- 1.24%
> 1.24%
Distribution
Services
Jewelry &
Hospitality
& Tourism
Agricultural
Products
Transportation
& Logistics
Aerospace
Information Vehicles &
Defense
Tech.
Business
Services
Precious
Metals
Financial
Services
Education &
Knowledge
Analytical
Instruments
Publishing
& Printing
Devices
Related
Gas
Fixtures,
Equipment &
Lightning &Services
Electrical
Equipment
Biopharma-
Products
Oil &
Building
Motor Driven
Products
Construction
Materials
Processed
Heavy
y
Construction
Services
Food
Forest
Products
Heavy
Machinery
Production
Technology
Tobacco
Automotive
Aerospace
Metal
Engines Manufacturing
Plastics
Footwear
Note: Clusters with overlapping borders have at least 20% overlap (by number of industries) in both
directions.
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
Furniture
cations
ceuticals
Chemical
Leather &
Textiles
Prefabricated
Enclosures
Equipment
Power
Generation
Communi-
Medical
Creation
Apparel
Products
Entertainment
31
Sporting
& Recreation
Goods
Marine
Equipment
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Share of World Exports by Cluster
Not reported
< 0.07%
Vietnam, 2006
0.07 – 0.15%
0.16 – 0.31%
0.31 – 0.62%
Fishing &
Fishing
Products
0.62- 1.24%
> 1.24%
Distribution
Services
Jewelry &
Hospitality
& Tourism
Agricultural
Products
Transportation
& Logistics
Aerospace
Information Vehicles &
Defense
Tech.
Business
Services
Precious
Metals
Financial
Services
Education &
Knowledge
Analytical
Instruments
Publishing
& Printing
Devices
Related
Gas
Fixtures,
Equipment &
Lightning &Services
Electrical
Equipment
Biopharma-
Products
Oil &
Building
Motor Driven
Products
Construction
Materials
Processed
Heavy
y
Construction
Services
Food
Forest
Products
Heavy
Machinery
Production
Technology
Tobacco
Automotive
Aerospace
Metal
Engines Manufacturing
Plastics
Footwear
Note: Clusters with overlapping borders have at least 20% overlap (by number of industries) in both
directions.
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
Furniture
cations
ceuticals
Chemical
Leather &
Textiles
Prefabricated
Enclosures
Equipment
Power
Generation
Communi-
Medical
Creation
Apparel
Products
Entertainment
32
Sporting
& Recreation
Goods
Marine
Equipment
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Geographic Levels and Competitiveness
World Economy
Broad Economic Areas
Groups off
G
Neighboring Nations
WTO
Asia
• The business environment at a given
location is the cumulative outcome of
policy at all geographic levels
Southeast Asia
• Many competitiveness drivers occur
at the regional and local level
Nations
States, Provinces
Metropolitan and Rural Areas
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
• The allocation of competitiveness
responsibilities across geographic
levels is a crucial policy challenge
Vietnam
Vietnamese provinces
Ho Chi Minh City
33
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Specialization of Regional Economies
Selected U.S. Geographic Areas
Seattle-BellevueEverett, WA
Aerospace Vehicles and
Defense
Fishing and Fishing
Products
Analytical Instruments
Denver, CO
Denver
Leather and Sporting Goods
Oil and Gas
Aerospace Vehicles and Defense
Chicago
Communications Equipment
Processed Food
Heavy Machinery
Pittsburgh, PA
Construction Materials
Metal Manufacturing
Education and Knowledge
Creation
Wichita, KS
Aerospace Vehicles and
Defense
Heavy Machinery
Oil and Gas
San FranciscoOakland-San Jose
Bay Area
Communications
Equipment
Agricultural
Products
Information
Technology
Los Angeles Area
Apparel
Building Fixtures,
Equipment and
Services
Entertainment
Boston
Analytical Instruments
Education and Knowledge Creation
Communications Equipment
Raleigh-Durham,
R
l i hD h
NC
Communications Equipment
Information Technology
Education and
Knowledge Creation
San Diego
Leather and Sporting Goods
Power Generation
Education and Knowledge
Creation
Houston
Oil and Gas Products and Services
Chemical Products
Heavy Construction Services
Atlanta, GA
Construction Materials
Transportation and Logistics
Business Services
Note: Clusters listed are the three highest ranking clusters in terms of share of national employment.
Source: Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School, 11/2006.
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
34
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index, 2006
Excellent
High Performing
Mid-high
Average
Mid-low
Low Performing
Source: Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index 2006 (USAID)
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
35
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
The Neighborhood
Southeast Asia
• Vietnam has a central position between ASEAN and China
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
36
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Economic Coordination Among Neighbors
Enhancing Productivity
Factor
(Input)
Conditions
Context for
Strategy
and Rivalry
• Improving regional
transportation
infrastructure
• Eliminating
trade and
investment
barriers within
the region
• Creating
g an efficient
energy network
• Enhancing regional
communications
and connectivity
• Li
Linking
ki financial
fi
i l
markets
• Opening the
movement of
students for higher
education
• Harmonizing
administrative
requirements for
businesses
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
• Simplifying and
harmonizing
cross-border
regulations and
paperworkk
• Coordinating
antimonopoly and
fair
competition
policies
Demand
Conditions
Related and
Supporting
Industries
• Harmonizing
environmental
standards
• Facilitating crossborder cluster
upgrading, e.g.
g
• Harmonizing
product safety
standards
– Tourism
– Agribusiness
– Transport &
Logistics
• Establishing
reciprocal
consumer
protection laws
– Business
services
• Opening
government
procurement
within the region
Macroeconomic
Competitiveness
• Coordinating
programs to
improve public
safety
• Coordinating
macro-economic
policies
Regional
Strategy &
Governance
• Creating a
regional marketing
program
• Sharing
g best
practices in
government
operations
• Creating regional
institutions
– Dispute
resolution
mechanisms
– Regional
development
bank
• Developing a
regional
negotiating
position with
i t
international
ti
l
organizations
37
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Agenda
• Understanding Vietnam’s Economic Performance
• Assessing Vietnamese Competitiveness
• Identifying
Id tif i Action
A ti
Priorities
P i iti
• Organizing for Competitiveness
• Creating an Economic Strategy
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
38
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Stages of National Competitive Development
Shifting Policy Imperatives
Factor-Driven
FactorEconomy
InvestmentInvestmentDriven Economy
Low Cost Inputs
Productivity
• Macro, political, and legal
stability
• Efficient basic
infrastructure
• Lowering regulatory costs
of doing business
•
•
•
•
Increasing local competition
Market openness
p
Advanced infrastructure
Incentives and rules
encouraging productivity
• Cluster
Cl t fformation
ti and
d
activation
InnovationInnovationDriven Economy
Unique Value
• Advanced skills
• Scientific and technological
g
institutions
• Incentives and rules
encouraging innovation
• Cluster upgrading
Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Macmillan Press, 1990
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
39
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Competitiveness Action Agenda: Key Priorities
Continue Existing Efforts
Fundamental Reform
• Reduce corruption
• Human resource
development at all levels
• Improve infrastructure
• Reform of SOEs
• Deepen
p financial market
reforms
• Cluster development
p
• Impose regulatory
attractiveness
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
40
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Reducing Corruption
• The government has repeatedly committed itself towards reducing
corruption; and some action has been taken
• Evidence reveals little progress
p g
• Vietnam needs to target corruption as a crucial barrier for growth and
design an integrated strategy to tackle its occurrence
Action
A
ti
priorities
i iti
• Reduce the potential for corruption through simplified regulations, use
of modern information technology, and improved SOE governance/
privatization
i ti ti
• Set clear guidelines and reporting requirements for management of
SOEs
• Demonstrate a commitment for transparency, including support for a
strong press
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
41
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Improving Infrastructure
• Significant infrastructure investments have been made in recent
years
• Evidence on their impact
p
is mixed as best. There is significant
g
duplication of efforts and companies complain about serious
bottlenecks
• Vietnam needs to better target infrastructure investments to meet
the needs of its growing economy
Action priorities
• Establish a national fund for key infrastructure projects to be
implemented under the supervision of the Prime Minister’s
Minister s office
• Utilize matching funds incentives to improve effectiveness if
investments by provincial governments
• Create
C t a public-private
bli
i t council
il to
t advise
d i on spending
di priorities
i iti
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
42
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Deepening Financial Markets
• Vietnam has made clear progress on opening up financial markets,
more recently also to foreign companies as part of the WTO agreement
• But the weakness of Vietnam’s financial markets even before the
global crisis, and the financing constraints faced by private
companies, indicate that serious challenges remain
• Vietnam needs to develop a modern regulatory and institutional
structure to enable an effective financial system
y
Action priorities
• Continue opening financial markets in line with WTO commitments
• Create an effective, independent financial regulator, using outside
help as needed
• Establish
E t bli h a development
d
l
t bank
b k to
t develop
d
l fi
financing
i ttools
l ffor private
i t
SMEs
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
43
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Regulatory Reform
•
Regulatory reform has been on the Vietnamese policy agenda for
some time, especially over the last five years
• Despite some progress, the overall regulatory burden on businesses
and citizens remains high with no clear societal benefits
• Vietnam needs a fundamentally new approach to regulatory reform
and assessment of new regulations
Action priorities
• Aggressively pursue the work on regulatory reform initiated with
f i d
foreign
donors
• Improve institutional capacity to evaluate and administer regulations,
not just the rules themselves
• Include an obligatory assessment of the administrative burden on
business in the process of introducing new laws and regulations
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
44
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Human Resource Development
Basic
education
• Enrolment rates have increased significantly but quality is low and
skills fail to meet company needs
• Vietnam needs to dramatically improve educational quality, through
setting standards,
standards improving curricula,
curricula and involving the private
sector in governance
Vocational
training
• Vietnam lacks a skills training system
• Companies have launched own training efforts to address skill
bottlenecks
• Vietnam needs a clear program for cluster-based workforce
development
Higher
education
• The number of universities has increased but quality is low and skills
do not match company needs
• Higher university education standards must be set and enforced,
drawing on international experts
• Vietnam needs to develop a plan and enabling institutions for
assimilation
i il ti off global
l b l technology
t h l
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
45
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Restructuring of State Owned Enterprises
• The government has an explicit policy to promote private enterprise but there is
deep-seated ambivalence towards privatization
• Without a thorough reform of the SOE sector, there is little hope for Vietnam to
reach the next level of economic development
SOE
governance
Competition in
markets with
SOEs
Privatization
• Create independent boards of directors
• Implement transparent financial reporting
• Define clear financial objectives
– Set corporate charters
• Remove existing trade, investment, and artificial entry barriers
protecting SOEs
• Establish strong, independent regulatory bodies
• Support start-ups and spin-offs from SOEs
• Create clear legal conditions for privatization
• Define explicit objectives for privatization process
• Create a dedicated structure for implementing privatization
• The creation of SOE groups is not a solution and can exacerbate problems if
no other reforms are being implemented
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
46
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Cluster Development in Vietnam
• Vietnam’s clusters
cl sters ccurrently
rrentl tend to be narrowly
narro l foc
focused
sed on
individual products
• There is limited collaboration among companies, suppliers and other
institutions
– Some clusters, like coffee, have the potential to significantly increase their
performance
f
if they
th adopt
d t a collaboration
ll b
ti
approach
h
• Cluster-based development thinking is crucial in improving the delivery
off other
th economic
i policies
li i
–
–
–
–
Workforce skill development around clusters
FDI attraction/industrial zones around clusters
Cluster-based regional development initiatives
Quality and technology transfer organization for each cluster
• Policy should upgrade all existing and emerging clusters, not choose
among them
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
47
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Clusters and Economic Policy
Science and Technology
I
Investments
t
t
(e.g., centers, university
departments,
technology transfer)
Education and
Workforce Training
Management Training
Standard setting and
quality initiatives
FDI/Business Attraction
Clusters
Market Information
and Disclosure
Export Promotion
Environmental
Stewardship
Industrial parks and
free trade zones
Natural Resource
Protection
Physical
Ph
i l
Infrastructure
• Clusters provide a framework for implementing public policy and
organizing public-private collaboration to enhance competitiveness
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
48
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Clusters and Economic Diversification
Develop Related Clusters
Deepen Existing Clusters
Turn Niche Products Into
Clusters
Build Clusters Around
MNCs
Upgrade Existing Export
Products and Services
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
49
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Upgrading Vietnamese Niche Positions, 2006
Cluster
Cluster World
Export
p
Share
Plastics
0.490%
Sporting, Recreational and Children's Goods
0.361%
Communications Equipment
0.284%
Processed Food
0.260%
Lighting and Electrical Equipment
Electrical
Equipment
0.256%
Motor Driven Products
0.156%
Entertainment and Reproduction Equipment
0.125%
Information Technology
0.121%
Analytical Instruments
0.047%
P d i
Production Technology
0.046%
Subcluster
Industry
Rubber
Plastic Waste
Plastic Products
Rubber
Natural rubber, balata and similar natural gums
Reclaimed unhardened rubber; waste
Plastic sacks, bags
Synthetic rubber
Motorcycles and Bicycles
y
y
Parts of other motorcycles
y
Motorcycles and Bicycles
Industry
Share of
World
Exports
7.82%
1.88%
1.55%
1.13%
Change in
Export Value (in
Share (1997$thousands))
$
2006)
3.40%
1.87%
0.65%
1.13%
$
$
$
$
1,137,205
6,084
150,234
143,316
1.42%
1.22%
$
60,962
,
Bicycles and other cycles, non‐motorized
1.27%
-1.56%
$
49,628
Specialty Office Machines
Electrical and Electronic Components
Specialty Foods and Ingredients
Food Products Machineryy
Specialty Foods and Ingredients
Dairy and Related Products
Specialty Foods and Ingredients
Specialty Foods and Ingredients
Glass
Electrical Parts
Electrical Parts
Motors and Generators
Appliances
Parts for calculating, accounting machines
Insulted wire, cable and conductors
Starches, inulin and gluten
Distilling, rectifying plant
g
y gp
Vegetable saps, extracts
Milk, concentrated or sweetened
Yeasts
Homogenized food preparations
Drawn, float, cast glass, worked
Other inductors
Other electric transformers
Electric motors<=37.5w
Sewing machines and parts
23.04%
1.07%
7.93%
2.64%
0.90%
0.84%
0.81%
0.76%
6.39%
3.20%
1.17%
1.88%
1.21%
23.04%
0.72%
6.23%
2.64%
0.50%
-0.22%
0.27%
0.59%
6.37%
2.86%
0.68%
1.15%
0.26%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
444,384
705,725
148,445
19,449
9,193
89,315
7,962
4,888
78,185
137,477
63,386
150,425
45,749
Audio Equipment
Loudspeakers, unmounted
1.41%
1.40%
$
39,964
Audio Equipment
Electric sound amplifiers
1.07%
1.07%
$
8,745
Peripherals
Electronic Components and Assemblies
Electronic Components
Electronic Components
Process Instruments
Fabricated Plate Work
Fabricated Plate Work
Process Equipment Components
Machine Tools and Accessories
Input or output units
Printed circuits
TV picture tubes, CRTs
Other electronic valves, tubes
Gas meters
Steam generating boilers, super‐heated
Steam generating boilers, super
heated water boilers; a
water boilers; a
Articulated link chain and parts
Cutting blades for machines
1.01%
0.36%
1.26%
0.35%
0.34%
1.35%
35%
0.45%
0.42%
1.01%
-0.43%
1.23%
-0.50%
0.34%
1.35%
35%
0.31%
0.38%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
653,740
85,738
53,690
12,186
1,415
53,010
53,0
0
7,292
7,501
Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, International Cluster Competitiveness Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business
School; Richard Bryden, Project Director. Underlying data drawn from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database.
50
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Agenda
• Understanding Vietnam’s Economic Performance
• Assessing Vietnamese Competitiveness
• Identifying
Id tif i Action
A ti
Priorities
P i iti
• Organizing for Competitiveness
• Creating an Economic Strategy
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
51
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
The Process of Economic Development
Shifting
g Roles and Responsibilities
p
Old Model
New Model
• Government drives economic
development through policy
decisions and incentives
• Economic development is a
collaborative process involving
government at multiple levels,
companies, teaching and
research institutions
institutions, and
institutions for collaboration
• Competitiveness must become a bottoms-up process in which many individuals,
companies, and institutions take responsibility
• Every community and cluster can take steps to enhance competitiveness
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
52
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Government and the Process of Economic Development
•
Competitiveness is affected by a myriad of government entities
– Multiple agencies and departments (e.g. finance, trade, education, science
and technology,
gy, commerce,, regional
g
p
policy,
y, energy,
gy, agriculture)
g
)
– Multiple levels of government (nations, states, cities, etc.)
– Intergovernmental relations with neighboring countries affect
competitiveness
•
Competitiveness is rarely the sole agenda of any government agency
•
Coordinating structures are needed that brings together the ministries
and departments necessary to formulate and implement an economic
strategy
•
Explicit mechanisms are needed to engage the private sector in dialog
about policy priorities and implementation progress
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
53
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Organizing for Competitiveness in Vietnam
Recommendations
• Create effective, independent regulatory organizations
• Improve economic policy at the provincial level
• Improve mechanisms for public-private discussion and collaboration
• Enhance strategic planning and program management capacity in
the central and provincial governments
• Develop a national economic strategy process to guide priorities in
i
improving
i th
the b
business
i
environment
i
t
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
54
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Regional Development in Vietnam
• Vietnam’s provinces are developing at different rates; prosperity levels
between the richest and poorest regions differs greatly
power and responsibility
p
y for economic development
p
has been
• Political p
decentralized to the provinces, who apply to the national government for funds
• Provinces have adopted unfocused growth strategies with much duplication
p
across p
provinces
and little specialization
• Provinces have insufficient technical capacity for policy design and
implementation
• Each
ac p
province
o ce sshould
ou d be ccharged
a ged with
t de
developing
e op g a
an eco
economic
o cp
plan
a based o
on
its unique strengths and potential
• Each province should be expected to publicly report on implementation
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
55
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Competitiveness Institutions
• Economic strategy unit in the Prime Minister’s office
– Regularly updating on progress
– Lead a formal planning and program management process involving all
agencies
• Public-private competitiveness council
• Vietnam Competitiveness Institute
– To conduct analyses, benchmark vs. other countries, and train
government leaders
– Joint national and provincial
• Enhanced role of business associations
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
56
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Agenda
• Understanding Vietnam’s Economic Performance
• Assessing Vietnamese Competitiveness
• Identifying
Id tif i Action
A ti
Priorities
P i iti
• Organizing for Competitiveness
• Creating an Economic Strategy
• Integrating
g
g Corporate
p
Social Responsibility
p
y
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
57
Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Defining an Economic Strategy
National Value Proposition
•
What is the unique competitive position of the nation or
region given its location, legacy, and existing and potential
strengths?
– What roles with neighbors, the region, and the broader world?
– What unique
q value as a business location?
– For what types of activities and clusters?
Achieving and Maintaining Parity
with Peers
Developing Unique Strengths
• What elements of context and the
business environment are crucial
priorities?
• What existing and emerging clusters
should be developed first?
• What weaknesses must be addressed to
achieve parity with peer countries?
• Priorities and sequencing are a necessity in economic development
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
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Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter
The Need for an Economic Strategy
• Th
The Vietnamese
Vi t
governmentt follows
f ll
llargely
l an evolutionary
l ti
and
d
reactive approach in response to crises and specific problems
• Foreign aid inflows are fragmented and driven by donor-priorities
• This approach has been successful in achieving success in factorbased economic development, but will be insufficient to move to a
new stage
• Government needs leads in a broad-based discussion on a new
economic strategy that sets priorities for improvements in the
business environment and institutions
– Internally, the government needs to increase its technical capacity to
support such a strategic dialogue, for example through a strategy unit in
the Prime Minister’s office
20081201 – Vietnam CAON.ppt
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Copyright 2008 © Professor Michael E. Porter