Download USING THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD ON ASTROLOGY

USING THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD ON ASTROLOGY (or: Everything I know about real research I learned in this class ;) INTRODUCTION: Schools teach 'the scientific method' even though it is not how scientific research is actually done. Real research is messy, time‐consuming and confusing ‐ and may involve ‘trial and error’. Sometimes it takes a while to determine the questions that should be asked; it can take years to design and build an experiment that answers the questions; and when, finally, the experiment is done, scientists may spend years interpreting the results. In comparison, most undergrad science students don’t do science experiments, rather they follow recipes to perform a demonstration. In real research, one never knows the ‘right answer’ ahead of time and there is no book with the answers in the back. This activity introduces students to research methodology by having them study a subject, analyze its claims, design an experiment to test it. PURPOSE: The art of scientific research is not easily taught: there no books telling you how to do it. Scientists are trained in graduate school, where they learn by doing under the guidance of established scientists (professors) – like an apprenticeship. After graduate school, they have the basic skills to do science on their own, but still often work with more senior scientists until they have years of experience. Scientists often specialize certain aspects of research, such as in devising theories or designing and conducting experiments to test theories. There is no simple set of instructions on how to do scientific research in general, but there are some guidelines in designing and conducting experiments: First, examine the subject matter carefully, learn about it and things that involve it, recognize what claims are made. Second, identify testable predictions which are based on each claim. Third, design a test for each prediction. Fourth, run the tests and gather data. Fifth, analyze and interpret the data. Six, present the results to the world! In this lab we will use astrology as a test subject to illustrate the methodology of scientific research. WHY PICK ON ASTROLOGY? 1.
Scientific inquiry into a topic is not 'picking on it'. Scientists carefully examine claims because they are 'interesting and noteworthy' not because they dislike them. Individual researchers may expect a claim is true or false ‐ but as long as everyone is open and honest with their work the claim will get a reasonably fair test. 2.
Scientists cannot test things that they know nothing about ‐ biologists seldom do research in astronomy without reading up on it. Astrology is familiar to most of us and the details are available on the Internet and in popular books. 3.
Scientists need suitable equipment when conducting experiments. Chemists need lab equipment; Astronomers telescopes; and so on. Astrology can be tested using publicly available information (such as horoscopes and birthdays of famous figures) or through surveys. These are low cost, easy, safe, and do not require extensive training. 4.
Many astrologers consider astrology to be scientific. For example this is from the website: www.Astrology.com: Astrology is a scientific way of looking at the world, but it is one which is not favored by the broad mass of scientists at present, because it explains the world using a different paradigm from those which are routinely accepted within the orthodox scientific community. This may change, as scientific theories develop and as extravagant reactions to past excesses begin to gain a perspective. Astrology, the mother of all science, may soon return to her rightful place in the universities! Critical evaluation of astrology is no less fair than carefully checking products before purchasing them. We make many judgments in life and we should do them carefully and methodically. In this lab we will scientifically evaluate whether or not astrology can do the things it claims to ‐ as long as we do our job well, whether or not it passes or fails the tests depends solely on its own merits. It is OK to have preconceived notions (prejudices) when we begin this work as long as we are honest: honesty in science amounts to being willing to acknowledge if our preconceived notions are wrong. PROCEDURE: The scientific investigation of astrology involves reading about astrology to understand its nature and what it claims to be able to do; examining those claims carefully to understand them and their implications to identify testable predictions; designing tests for those predictions which can be carried out with the resources available to us in this class; conducting the tests carefully so our data are valid; analyzing and interpreting the data; and finally drawing conclusions and writing them up. We will do each of these steps as individual groups – to allow you to discuss your work create presentations. The data will be aggregated from all groups for analysis. 1.
The Nature of Astrology: The first step in a research project is learning as much as possible about the topic (the more we learn now, the less effort we will waste later). Fortunately, information about astrology is readily accessible in books, articles and websites have been about astrology ‐ both pro and con. •
Distill the information down to a one paragraph summary of the nature of astrology ‐ what does it claim to be and what does it claim it can do? List your sources. •
List ten specific claims made by the proponents of astrology. For example, if it is claimed that a person’s destiny determined by their birth date, what specific aspects of destiny are determined for which signs? If a person’s character and personality is influenced by the positions of planets at the time of their birth list the character and personality traits associated with which signs, planets and positions. List your sources – and do not be surprised if different sources make different claims for astrology. Here are some websites to get you started: •
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http://www.astrology.com
http://www.astrologycom.com
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http://www.astrologycom.com/facts.html
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http://www.astrologycom.com/astrol1.html
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http://www.astrologycom.com/astrol2.html
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http://www.astrologycom.com/astrol3.html
http://astrology.about.com/od/foundations/p/Astrology101.htm
http://people.howstuffworks.com/question749.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology
http://www.astrosociety.org/education/astro/act3/astrology.html
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http://www.astrosociety.org/education/astro/act3/astrology3.html
http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/astrology.html
www.astrology-and-science.com
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Determine Testable Predictions: The claims of astrology from each group will be combined. Read through the entire list of claims and find ten specific predictions based on the claims. It may be easier to find predictions for some claims than others. As a rule the more straightforward the prediction the better. List the claim along with the derived prediction. For example: •
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Claim: astrology influences athletic ability and Taurus is the most athletic, strongest and fastest sign. Prediction: There will be more than average percent of Taurus in athletes competing in events involving speed & strength 3.
Design the Tests: The lists of testable predictions of the claims of astrology will be combined and distributed, then each group will design ten tests for predictions. The class will choose approximately six tests to run and discuss how to make them a fair and reliable tests. Note, you have to do these tests so don’t make them too messy or difficult. Consider your abilities when designing tests: What measurements can you make? How will you gather and analyze the data? •
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Prediction: There will be more than average percent of Taurus in athletes competing in events involving speed & strength. Test: Look up birthdates (and signs) of recipients of Gold, Silver and Bronze Olympic medals in running and weight lifting events, plot a histogram of signs. Compare variation between signs with expected statistical fluctuations. 4.
Conduct Experiments and Gather Data: Do the experiments and gather data. Divide the labor so there is not an undue burden on any individual. Record the data in a consistent fashion and combine it ‐ this is especially important to combine the results from all groups into one large data set for analysis. 5.
Analyze The Data and Interpret the Results Many times scientists hire experts at data processing to handle analysis which is beyond their means. In this class, I can provide certain types of analysis – provided the description is clear. Since this is not a statistics class you will not be expected to do detailed statistical analysis but you should be able to understand the resulting plots. Most of this step will be done as a class. 6.
Write it up and present results: The final step in research is writing a report and presenting it. Discuss what you did, why you did it, and what you found out. Be sure that you can back up your conclusions with your results. Describe how much confidence you have in the results. If some tests were inconclusive, state it and describe how you would improve on it. Finally, explain where the next logical step would be in extending this research project. See the handout on writing lab reports for more information on the format. Each group will give a short presentation to report their findings.