Download Impact upon the Indian socio-economic fronts by climate change

Indian Journal of Science and Technology
Vol. 4 issue 3 (March 2011)
192
ISSN: 0974- 6846
Impact upon the Indian socio-economic fronts by climate change
P. S. Syed Shabudeen
Department of Chemistry and Environmental Science, Kumaraguru College of Technology, Coimbatore, TN, India
[email protected]; [email protected]
Abstract
India is the seventh largest country in the world with fast developing economy. The climate change has an adverse
additional stress upon ecology, socio-economic developmental activities. A very long 7500 KM coastline with three
metros, several cities, towns and villages with thick population density is the high light of our country. It possesses
almost all type of Climatic zones. The economy of our country is based mostly upon monsoon rain fall patterns. The
climate change has vulnerable impact over monsoon rain fall patterns. The anticipated sea level raise will adversely
affect coastline ecosystems and submergence of coastal islands and deltas. The sea water intrusion in to aquifers
which acts as water resources for delta and coastline settlements will badly affect. The vector diseases are spread
across the country due to water shortage due to climate change. The climate change and its impact will adversely
affect the livelihood of the weaker section of society. The sustainable development of the country is based upon the
development of women and children. In recent years the death tolls due to adverse heat wave, cold wave and
sudden heavy rains and fresh floods have the vulnerable impact upon economic and social warfronts of our country.
It is the time to think and act upon and the challenges which are going to face by Indians and the strategies to be
adopted in near future.
Keywords: Climate zones, sustainable development, monsoon rainfall, hot wave and cold wave.
Introduction
India, the seventh largest country in the world and
the second largest in Asia, has a total geographical area
of 329 Mha, of which only 305 Mha is the reporting area
(the area as per the land records of villages & towns).
The mainland stretches from 8°4' N to 37°6' N and 68°7'
E to 97° 25' E. It has a land frontier of 15,200 km and a
coastline of 7,516 km. India a developing country,
climate change could represent an additional stress on
ecological and socioeconomic systems that are already
facing tremendous pressures due to rapid urbanization,
industrialization and economic development. With its
huge and growing population, a 7500 km long densely
populated and low-lying coastline and an economy that
is closely tied to its natural resource base, India is
considerably vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change.
Climatic zones of India: The word climate refers to the
weather variation of any specific area over a period of
time. The India’s different climatic zones are based on
factors such as location, surface wind and upper air
circulation. Especially, India is the country which
possesses almost all type of climatic zones.
Alpine zone: This climate zone can be experienced in
the high altitudes of Himalayas. In this region there are
high climatic fluctuations due to steep altitude
variations. Different types of climatic zones can be seen
in this region. In the foothills subtropical climate occur,
Alpine Tundra Zone occurs at higher altitudes.
Sub Tropical: This zone is prevalent in most of the
northern part of India. It can be called as the typical
Indian climate. Summers are hot and wet while in winter
temperature may drop down to freezing point in higher
ranges. Rainfall is common in summer season whereas
winters are cold and dry.
Tropical: It can be divided into two sub types viz, tropical
wet monsoon and tropical dry. The characteristics of
tropical wet monsoon include average temperature,
which normally does not fall below 18°C, accompanied
by average to high rainfall. In Tropical Dry type rainfall is
not so common.
Arid: High temperature and low rainfall are marked
features of this climatic zone. It is prevalent in western
part of the country and includes large part of Rajasthan.
The temperature in this zone may shoot up to as high as
50°C in summer.
Climatic scenario in India
Temperature: Analysis of data for the period 1901-2005
by IMD suggests that annual mean temperature for the
country as a whole has risen to 0.51oC over the period.
It may be mentioned that annual mean temperature has
been consistently above normal (normal based on
period, 1961-1990) since 1993. This warming is
primarily due to rise in maximum temperature across the
country, over larger parts of the data set. However,
since 1990, minimum temperature is steadily rising and
rate of its rise is slightly more than that of maximum
temperature. Spatial pattern of trends in the mean
annual temperature shows significant positive
(increasing) trend over most parts of the country except
over parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Bihar, where
significant negative (decreasing) trends were observed.
Season-wise, maximum rise in mean temperature was
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observed during the Post-monsoon season (0.7oC)
followed by winter season (0.67oC), Pre-monsoon
season (0.50oC) and Monsoon season (0.30oC). During
the winter season, since 1991, rise in
minimum temperature is appreciably higher
than that of maximum temperature over
northern plains. This may be due to pollution
leading to frequent occurrences of fog.
Upper air temperatures have shown an
increasing trend in the lower troposphere,
and this trend is significant at 850 hPa level,
while decreasing trend (not significant) was
observed in the upper troposphere.
The various studies conducted in the
country have shown that the surface air
temperatures in India are going up at the
rate of 0.4°C per hundred years, particularly
during the post-monsoon and winter season.
Using models, they predict that mean winter
temperatures will increase by as much as
3.2°C in the 2050s and 4.5°C by 2080s, due
to
greenhouse
gases.
Summer
temperatures will increase by 2.2°C in the
2050s and 3.2°C in the 2080s. Extreme temperatures
and heat spells have already become common over
Northern India, often causing loss of human life. In 1998
alone, 650 deaths occurred in Orissa due to heat waves.
The detailed statistical report is tabled.
Vol. 4 issue 3 (March 2011)
193
ISSN: 0974- 6846
increased significantly for the subdivisions Konkan &
Goa, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha,
West M.P., Telengana and west U.P. September rainfall
Fig. 1.Heat wave deaths in India 1979-2008.
Source of data: IMD. Pune.
has shown significantly decreasing trend for
subdivisions Vidarbha, Marathwada and Telangana and
Fig. 2. The Telegraph,Calcutta,India,
Monday, October 30, 2006.
Climate change affect the monsoon pattern of India
Climate change has had an effect on the monsoons
too. India is heavily dependent on the monsoon to meet
its agricultural and water needs, and also for protecting
and propagating its rich biodiversity. All India summer
monsoon season (June to September) rainfall as well
the rainfall for all the four monsoon months does not
show any significant trend. It seems to be normal on
over all the country but it had adverse effect on subdivisional level.
Sub-divisional rainfall during monsoon season
During the season, three subdivisions viz.
Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Kerala show significant
decreasing trend and eight subdivisions viz. Gangetic
West Bengal, West Uttar Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir,
Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Rayalaseema,
Coastal Andhra Pradesh and North Interior Karnataka
show significant increasing trends. June rainfall has
shown significant increasing trend for the western and
southwestern parts of the country, whereas significant
decreasing trend is observed for the central and eastern
parts of the country. July rainfall has significantly
decreased for most parts of the central and peninsular
India
but has increased significantly in the
Northeastern parts of the country. August rainfall has
increasing trend (95%) for the subdivision Sub
Himalayan Gangetic West Bengal. It is important to
study the changing rain fall patterns in North western
arid region. Goudie, who studied the changing rainfall
pattern in these areas (Thar) and noticed that the rainfall
from 1890 to 1895 noticeably changed. Conditions had
been relatively wet in 1880 and 1890 (June-September
but then followed a low precipitation, with precipitation in
driest decadal period being generally only between 52%
and 69% of that for the wettest decade of this century. A
decrease in the summer rainfall was slso noted during
1957-70 (Table). Analysis of data for Bikaner and
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Vol. 4 issue 3 (March 2011)
and increasing the risk of flash floods during the wet
Jodhpur of Thar desert
season.
showed that summer monsoon
Number of
rainfall decreased steadily by
Year
deaths
Increased temperatures will impact agricultural
more than 45% since 1957.
1979
361
production.
India will experience a decline
1980
156
Higher temperatures reduce the total duration of a
in summer rainfall by the
1981
72
crop cycle by inducing early flowering, thus shortening
2050s,
summer
rainfall
1982
16
the `grain fill’ period. The shorter the crop cycle, the
accounts for almost 70% of
1983
185
lower the yield per unit area. Climate change will affect
the
total
annual
rainfall
over
1984
58
agricultural yield directly because of alterations in
India and is crucial to Indian
1985
142
temperature and rainfall, and indirectly through changes
agriculture.
Relatively
small
1986
156
in soil quality, pests, and diseases. In particular, the
climatic
changes
can
cause
1987
91
yield of cereals is expected to decline in India, Africa,
large
water
resource
1988
637
and the Middle East. As the temperature rises
problems, particularly in arid
1989
44
conditions will become more favourable for pests such
and semi-arid regions such as
1990
2
as grasshoppers to complete a number of reproduction
northwest India. This will have
1991
252
1992
114
cycles thereby increasing their population. In the higher
an impact on agriculture,
1993
42
latitudes (in the northern part of our country) agriculture
drinking
water
and
on
1994
434
will benefit with the rise in temperature as the winter
generation of hydro-electric
1995
412
season will be shorter and the growing seasons longer.
power and sanitation. The
1996
20
This will also mean that pests that will move towards the
world health Organisation has
1997
20
higher latitudes as the temperatures rise. Extreme
declered
that
waterborne
1998
1662
weather conditions such as high temperature, heavy
sanitation meets none of its
1999
126
rainfall, floods, droughts, etc. will also affect crop
objectives in poorest areas–
2000
57
production. Climate change would strongly affect
equity, disease prevention and
2001
70
agriculture, but scientists still don’t know exactly how
sustainability.
If
the
climate
2002
806
increased concentrations of CO2 may boost crop
change effects is a two
2003
1539
dimensions of spatial and
productivity. Climate and agricultural zones would tend
2004
117
temporal
on
availability
of
to shift towards the poles while some species would
2005
587
water,
the
sanitation
and
benefit from higher temperatures, others might not. Mid2006
135
hygiene will automatically
latitude yields may be reduced by 10-30% due to
2007
476
affected in multi dimensional
increased summer dryness. The impact on yields of low2008
294
Source: IMD Annual reports
frame of space, time, health,
latitude crops is more difficult to predict. The impact on
on ‘Disastrous events’, Pune. wealth and
net global agricultural productivity is
Table 2. Five-Year running mean
dignity etc, (UNICEF 2007).
percentage of normal summer monsoon also difficult to assess (Arivudai
Apart from monsoon rains, India
Nambi). In developing countries like
seasonal rainfall centered
uses perennial rivers, the north
India, climate change is an additional
on 1957 & 1970
1957
1970
Indian rivers which originate and
burden. Agriculture production is
114
71
depend on glacial melt-water in the Bikaner
direct dependence on climate change
115
68
Hindukush and Himalayan ranges Jodhpur
and Matthews et al. (1994) have
and the south Indian rivers depend Source: Goudie, A., Environ mental change, estimated the impacts on rice yield
clarendon press, Oxford, 1983, p.156.
on the condensation of dwe on the
for many countries in Asia. This will
top hills of Western Ghats. Since the melting season
result in food material shortage, malnutrition and sociocoincides with the summer monsoon season, any
economic conflicts and unrest. The impact of climate
intensification of the monsoon is likely to contribute to
change on economy (http://coe.mse.ac.in/onerview/11.)
flood disasters in the Himalayan catchment. Rising
temperatures will also contribute to the raising of
Sea level rise
snowline, reducing the capacity of this natural reservoir,
A trend of sea level rise of 1 cm per decade has
Table 1. Heat wave
death tolls all over India.
Table 3. Rainfall, rainy days & incidence of malaria in Jodhpur.
Average November
temperature
Total annual
rainfall (in mm)
Number of rain days
Total malaria cases
% of P. falciparum cases to total cases
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
1993
1994
24.0 21.0 23.0 24.5 24.0 24.6 23.2 24.2 23.0 23.0 22.4
24.1
22.7
417
526
326
595
36
41
21
20
17
16
38
28
44
25
27
1509 5934 4803 2918 1034 399 2877 6011 1462 6374 9685
15
25
9
10
11
7
9.5
23 28.7 16.3 48.3
29
3096
26.0
51
14919
64.2
513
231
214
249
111
270
230
844
204
Source: Based on data from IMD and NVBDCP.
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been recorded along the Indian coast. Sea level rise
due to thermal expansion of sea water in the Indian
Ocean is expected to be about 25-40 cm by 2050. This
could inundate low lying areas, down coastal marshes
and wetlands, erode beaches, exacerbate flooding and
increase the salinity of rivers, bays and aquifers. A study
by the oceanographic department of Jadavpur
University found that roughly 80 sq km in the Sunder
bans have vanished under water in three decades. (The
Telegraph,Calcutta, India, Monday, October 30, 2006).
Deltas will be threatened by flooding, erosion & salt
intrusion
Deltas will be threatened by flooding, erosion and
salt intrusion. Loss of coastal mangroves will have an
impact on fisheries. The major delta area of the Ganga,
Brahmaputra, Indus river, in south Cavery, Krishna,
Kothaveri, Maghnathi, Narmadha, etc., which have large
populations reliant on riverine resources will be affected
by changes in water regimes, salt water intrusions and
land loss. There is increasing debate these days on
climate change and its possible consequences. Much of
this debate has focused in the context of surface water
systems. In many arid areas of the world, rainfall is
scarce and so is surface runoff. These areas rely heavily
on groundwater. The consequences of climate change
on groundwater are long term and can be far reaching.
One of the more apparent consequences is the
increased migration of salt water inland in coastal
aquifers. Using two coastal aquifers, one in Egypt and
the other in India, this study investigates the effect of
likely climate change on sea water intrusion. Three
realistic scenarios mimicking climate change are
considered. Under these scenarios, the Delta aquifer is
found to be more vulnerable to climate change and sea
level rise (Sherif et al., 1999).
Lower altitude tropical & subtropical forests to higher
altitude temperate forest regions
Increase in temperatures will result in shifts of lower
altitude tropical and subtropical forests to higher altitude
temperate forest regions, resulting in the extinction of
some temperate vegetation types. Decrease in rainfall
and the resultant soil moisture stress could result in
drier teak dominated forests replacing sal trees in
central India. Increased dry spells could also place dry
and moist deciduous forests at increased risk from
forest fires (Ravindranath & Sukumar, 1996). The
Western Ghats featuring a mixture of stunted evergreen
forest and grass lands with sharp ecotones are a
sensitive indicator of past climate change (Sukumar et
al., 1993, 1995). The increase in temperature will
reduce frost incidence, the montane forest turns in to
grass lands, although with anthropogenic disturbances
such as fires and conversion of grass lands into
plantations of wattle and eucalyptus. The Central Indian
forests are mostly moist deciduous and dry deciduous
Vol. 4 issue 3 (March 2011)
195
ISSN: 0974- 6846
forests. Increased rainfall and soil moisture during the
south west monsoon could potentially transform these to
moister vegetation types. Sal forest characteristic of the
moister belt could replace teak forest in the drier belt.
The climate change scenario for northeast India is not
very clear. There seems to be much greater variability in
the various climatic parameters over even a small area.
This region already experiences very heavy rainfall and
any small changes in rain fall may not be of much
consequence for vegetation. As per the news paper
results the fresh floods claims 200 more lives in Punjab,
Haryana, U.P., Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and
Gujarath etc., It also swept away a lot of food grains
cattles and damaged houses and rail, road and
communication net works during this month Aug 2010.
Human health
Medical science suggests that the rise in
temperature and change in humidity will adversely affect
human health in India. Heat stress could result in heat
cramps, heat exhaustion, heal stroke, and damage
physiological functions, metabolic processes and
immune systems. Increased temperatures can increase
the range of vector borne diseases such as malaria,
particularly in regions where minimum temperatures
currently limited pathogen and vector development. In
the case of Tahar region, construction of canals have
created water logging problems, soil structure has
changed with increased moisture retaining capacity.
And a new vector, Anopheles culicifacies is increasing
in this area, previously A. stephensi. A. culicifacies
remains active throughout the year. Such environment
increases incident of Malaria (Akhtar & McMichel,
1996).
Tropical cyclones over the Indian seas
For the North Indian Ocean as a whole, the number
of cyclonic and severe cyclonic storms shows a distinct
decadal variability. Long term linear trend (1891-2004)
in frequency of tropical cyclones over the north Indian
Ocean as a whole, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian
Sea for different seasons, generally, shows a significant
decreasing trend. There is sharp decrease in the
frequency during the monsoon season. However, an
increasing trend in the frequency of tropical cyclones
forming over the Bay of Bengal in the months of May
and November, the principal cyclone months, is
observed. Cyclone frequency data for the last four
decades (1961 onwards), since when significant
monitoring tools like satellite are available, shows a
significant decreasing trend for all the months and
seasons and once again the maximum decrease was
noticed in the monsoon season. The recent cloud
bursting phenomenon over Ladak, Lahe regions,
previous Kosi river floods present Yamuna floods,
Punjab floods, etc, gives a warning of climate change to
our Governments and it’s not too late to Plan strategic
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Vol. 4 issue 3 (March 2011)
196
ISSN: 0974- 6846
planning in sustainable development based upon
climatic changes.
Conclusion
Climate change is an emerging human security issue
that threatens numerous communities. Due to floods,
femine, watershed management, vector disease control,
afforestation, cyclones, submering of low laying areas
etc., The nature and extent of climatic changes not only
hinders human development and environmental
security, but also forms a major human security threat
at national livelihood level, worlds’ most vulnerable
groups. This may create inequities, vulnerabilities and
insecurities. Now the planners should take note of the
alarming climate change scenario of India and to avoid
the disasters, it is proper to plan the startegies by the
administrators to safe guard the weaker section of our
community, for their sustainable development.
References
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