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Indian Journal of Science and Technology Vol. 4 issue 3 (March 2011) 192 ISSN: 0974- 6846 Impact upon the Indian socio-economic fronts by climate change P. S. Syed Shabudeen Department of Chemistry and Environmental Science, Kumaraguru College of Technology, Coimbatore, TN, India [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract India is the seventh largest country in the world with fast developing economy. The climate change has an adverse additional stress upon ecology, socio-economic developmental activities. A very long 7500 KM coastline with three metros, several cities, towns and villages with thick population density is the high light of our country. It possesses almost all type of Climatic zones. The economy of our country is based mostly upon monsoon rain fall patterns. The climate change has vulnerable impact over monsoon rain fall patterns. The anticipated sea level raise will adversely affect coastline ecosystems and submergence of coastal islands and deltas. The sea water intrusion in to aquifers which acts as water resources for delta and coastline settlements will badly affect. The vector diseases are spread across the country due to water shortage due to climate change. The climate change and its impact will adversely affect the livelihood of the weaker section of society. The sustainable development of the country is based upon the development of women and children. In recent years the death tolls due to adverse heat wave, cold wave and sudden heavy rains and fresh floods have the vulnerable impact upon economic and social warfronts of our country. It is the time to think and act upon and the challenges which are going to face by Indians and the strategies to be adopted in near future. Keywords: Climate zones, sustainable development, monsoon rainfall, hot wave and cold wave. Introduction India, the seventh largest country in the world and the second largest in Asia, has a total geographical area of 329 Mha, of which only 305 Mha is the reporting area (the area as per the land records of villages & towns). The mainland stretches from 8°4' N to 37°6' N and 68°7' E to 97° 25' E. It has a land frontier of 15,200 km and a coastline of 7,516 km. India a developing country, climate change could represent an additional stress on ecological and socioeconomic systems that are already facing tremendous pressures due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development. With its huge and growing population, a 7500 km long densely populated and low-lying coastline and an economy that is closely tied to its natural resource base, India is considerably vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Climatic zones of India: The word climate refers to the weather variation of any specific area over a period of time. The India’s different climatic zones are based on factors such as location, surface wind and upper air circulation. Especially, India is the country which possesses almost all type of climatic zones. Alpine zone: This climate zone can be experienced in the high altitudes of Himalayas. In this region there are high climatic fluctuations due to steep altitude variations. Different types of climatic zones can be seen in this region. In the foothills subtropical climate occur, Alpine Tundra Zone occurs at higher altitudes. Sub Tropical: This zone is prevalent in most of the northern part of India. It can be called as the typical Indian climate. Summers are hot and wet while in winter temperature may drop down to freezing point in higher ranges. Rainfall is common in summer season whereas winters are cold and dry. Tropical: It can be divided into two sub types viz, tropical wet monsoon and tropical dry. The characteristics of tropical wet monsoon include average temperature, which normally does not fall below 18°C, accompanied by average to high rainfall. In Tropical Dry type rainfall is not so common. Arid: High temperature and low rainfall are marked features of this climatic zone. It is prevalent in western part of the country and includes large part of Rajasthan. The temperature in this zone may shoot up to as high as 50°C in summer. Climatic scenario in India Temperature: Analysis of data for the period 1901-2005 by IMD suggests that annual mean temperature for the country as a whole has risen to 0.51oC over the period. It may be mentioned that annual mean temperature has been consistently above normal (normal based on period, 1961-1990) since 1993. This warming is primarily due to rise in maximum temperature across the country, over larger parts of the data set. However, since 1990, minimum temperature is steadily rising and rate of its rise is slightly more than that of maximum temperature. Spatial pattern of trends in the mean annual temperature shows significant positive (increasing) trend over most parts of the country except over parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Bihar, where significant negative (decreasing) trends were observed. Season-wise, maximum rise in mean temperature was Proceedings of the “Global Environmental and its sustainability: Implications and Strategies” held at Chennai, India (7th Nov.2010) & Bangkok, Thailand (25th-29th Nov.2010) Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee) http://www.indjst.org Indian J.Sci.Technol. Indian Journal of Science and Technology observed during the Post-monsoon season (0.7oC) followed by winter season (0.67oC), Pre-monsoon season (0.50oC) and Monsoon season (0.30oC). During the winter season, since 1991, rise in minimum temperature is appreciably higher than that of maximum temperature over northern plains. This may be due to pollution leading to frequent occurrences of fog. Upper air temperatures have shown an increasing trend in the lower troposphere, and this trend is significant at 850 hPa level, while decreasing trend (not significant) was observed in the upper troposphere. The various studies conducted in the country have shown that the surface air temperatures in India are going up at the rate of 0.4°C per hundred years, particularly during the post-monsoon and winter season. Using models, they predict that mean winter temperatures will increase by as much as 3.2°C in the 2050s and 4.5°C by 2080s, due to greenhouse gases. Summer temperatures will increase by 2.2°C in the 2050s and 3.2°C in the 2080s. Extreme temperatures and heat spells have already become common over Northern India, often causing loss of human life. In 1998 alone, 650 deaths occurred in Orissa due to heat waves. The detailed statistical report is tabled. Vol. 4 issue 3 (March 2011) 193 ISSN: 0974- 6846 increased significantly for the subdivisions Konkan & Goa, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, West M.P., Telengana and west U.P. September rainfall Fig. 1.Heat wave deaths in India 1979-2008. Source of data: IMD. Pune. has shown significantly decreasing trend for subdivisions Vidarbha, Marathwada and Telangana and Fig. 2. The Telegraph,Calcutta,India, Monday, October 30, 2006. Climate change affect the monsoon pattern of India Climate change has had an effect on the monsoons too. India is heavily dependent on the monsoon to meet its agricultural and water needs, and also for protecting and propagating its rich biodiversity. All India summer monsoon season (June to September) rainfall as well the rainfall for all the four monsoon months does not show any significant trend. It seems to be normal on over all the country but it had adverse effect on subdivisional level. Sub-divisional rainfall during monsoon season During the season, three subdivisions viz. Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Kerala show significant decreasing trend and eight subdivisions viz. Gangetic West Bengal, West Uttar Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and North Interior Karnataka show significant increasing trends. June rainfall has shown significant increasing trend for the western and southwestern parts of the country, whereas significant decreasing trend is observed for the central and eastern parts of the country. July rainfall has significantly decreased for most parts of the central and peninsular India but has increased significantly in the Northeastern parts of the country. August rainfall has increasing trend (95%) for the subdivision Sub Himalayan Gangetic West Bengal. It is important to study the changing rain fall patterns in North western arid region. Goudie, who studied the changing rainfall pattern in these areas (Thar) and noticed that the rainfall from 1890 to 1895 noticeably changed. Conditions had been relatively wet in 1880 and 1890 (June-September but then followed a low precipitation, with precipitation in driest decadal period being generally only between 52% and 69% of that for the wettest decade of this century. A decrease in the summer rainfall was slso noted during 1957-70 (Table). Analysis of data for Bikaner and Proceedings of the “Global Environmental and its sustainability: Implications and Strategies” held at Chennai, India (7th Nov.2010) & Bangkok, Thailand (25th-29th Nov.2010) Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee) http://www.indjst.org Indian J.Sci.Technol. Indian Journal of Science and Technology 194 ISSN: 0974- 6846 Vol. 4 issue 3 (March 2011) and increasing the risk of flash floods during the wet Jodhpur of Thar desert season. showed that summer monsoon Number of rainfall decreased steadily by Year deaths Increased temperatures will impact agricultural more than 45% since 1957. 1979 361 production. India will experience a decline 1980 156 Higher temperatures reduce the total duration of a in summer rainfall by the 1981 72 crop cycle by inducing early flowering, thus shortening 2050s, summer rainfall 1982 16 the `grain fill’ period. The shorter the crop cycle, the accounts for almost 70% of 1983 185 lower the yield per unit area. Climate change will affect the total annual rainfall over 1984 58 agricultural yield directly because of alterations in India and is crucial to Indian 1985 142 temperature and rainfall, and indirectly through changes agriculture. Relatively small 1986 156 in soil quality, pests, and diseases. In particular, the climatic changes can cause 1987 91 yield of cereals is expected to decline in India, Africa, large water resource 1988 637 and the Middle East. As the temperature rises problems, particularly in arid 1989 44 conditions will become more favourable for pests such and semi-arid regions such as 1990 2 as grasshoppers to complete a number of reproduction northwest India. This will have 1991 252 1992 114 cycles thereby increasing their population. In the higher an impact on agriculture, 1993 42 latitudes (in the northern part of our country) agriculture drinking water and on 1994 434 will benefit with the rise in temperature as the winter generation of hydro-electric 1995 412 season will be shorter and the growing seasons longer. power and sanitation. The 1996 20 This will also mean that pests that will move towards the world health Organisation has 1997 20 higher latitudes as the temperatures rise. Extreme declered that waterborne 1998 1662 weather conditions such as high temperature, heavy sanitation meets none of its 1999 126 rainfall, floods, droughts, etc. will also affect crop objectives in poorest areas– 2000 57 production. Climate change would strongly affect equity, disease prevention and 2001 70 agriculture, but scientists still don’t know exactly how sustainability. If the climate 2002 806 increased concentrations of CO2 may boost crop change effects is a two 2003 1539 dimensions of spatial and productivity. Climate and agricultural zones would tend 2004 117 temporal on availability of to shift towards the poles while some species would 2005 587 water, the sanitation and benefit from higher temperatures, others might not. Mid2006 135 hygiene will automatically latitude yields may be reduced by 10-30% due to 2007 476 affected in multi dimensional increased summer dryness. The impact on yields of low2008 294 Source: IMD Annual reports frame of space, time, health, latitude crops is more difficult to predict. The impact on on ‘Disastrous events’, Pune. wealth and net global agricultural productivity is Table 2. Five-Year running mean dignity etc, (UNICEF 2007). percentage of normal summer monsoon also difficult to assess (Arivudai Apart from monsoon rains, India Nambi). In developing countries like seasonal rainfall centered uses perennial rivers, the north India, climate change is an additional on 1957 & 1970 1957 1970 Indian rivers which originate and burden. Agriculture production is 114 71 depend on glacial melt-water in the Bikaner direct dependence on climate change 115 68 Hindukush and Himalayan ranges Jodhpur and Matthews et al. (1994) have and the south Indian rivers depend Source: Goudie, A., Environ mental change, estimated the impacts on rice yield clarendon press, Oxford, 1983, p.156. on the condensation of dwe on the for many countries in Asia. This will top hills of Western Ghats. Since the melting season result in food material shortage, malnutrition and sociocoincides with the summer monsoon season, any economic conflicts and unrest. The impact of climate intensification of the monsoon is likely to contribute to change on economy (http://coe.mse.ac.in/onerview/11.) flood disasters in the Himalayan catchment. Rising temperatures will also contribute to the raising of Sea level rise snowline, reducing the capacity of this natural reservoir, A trend of sea level rise of 1 cm per decade has Table 1. Heat wave death tolls all over India. Table 3. Rainfall, rainy days & incidence of malaria in Jodhpur. Average November temperature Total annual rainfall (in mm) Number of rain days Total malaria cases % of P. falciparum cases to total cases 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 24.0 21.0 23.0 24.5 24.0 24.6 23.2 24.2 23.0 23.0 22.4 24.1 22.7 417 526 326 595 36 41 21 20 17 16 38 28 44 25 27 1509 5934 4803 2918 1034 399 2877 6011 1462 6374 9685 15 25 9 10 11 7 9.5 23 28.7 16.3 48.3 29 3096 26.0 51 14919 64.2 513 231 214 249 111 270 230 844 204 Source: Based on data from IMD and NVBDCP. Proceedings of the “Global Environmental and its sustainability: Implications and Strategies” held at Chennai, India (7th Nov.2010) & Bangkok, Thailand (25th-29th Nov.2010) Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee) http://www.indjst.org Indian J.Sci.Technol. Indian Journal of Science and Technology been recorded along the Indian coast. Sea level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water in the Indian Ocean is expected to be about 25-40 cm by 2050. This could inundate low lying areas, down coastal marshes and wetlands, erode beaches, exacerbate flooding and increase the salinity of rivers, bays and aquifers. A study by the oceanographic department of Jadavpur University found that roughly 80 sq km in the Sunder bans have vanished under water in three decades. (The Telegraph,Calcutta, India, Monday, October 30, 2006). Deltas will be threatened by flooding, erosion & salt intrusion Deltas will be threatened by flooding, erosion and salt intrusion. Loss of coastal mangroves will have an impact on fisheries. The major delta area of the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Indus river, in south Cavery, Krishna, Kothaveri, Maghnathi, Narmadha, etc., which have large populations reliant on riverine resources will be affected by changes in water regimes, salt water intrusions and land loss. There is increasing debate these days on climate change and its possible consequences. Much of this debate has focused in the context of surface water systems. In many arid areas of the world, rainfall is scarce and so is surface runoff. These areas rely heavily on groundwater. The consequences of climate change on groundwater are long term and can be far reaching. One of the more apparent consequences is the increased migration of salt water inland in coastal aquifers. Using two coastal aquifers, one in Egypt and the other in India, this study investigates the effect of likely climate change on sea water intrusion. Three realistic scenarios mimicking climate change are considered. Under these scenarios, the Delta aquifer is found to be more vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise (Sherif et al., 1999). Lower altitude tropical & subtropical forests to higher altitude temperate forest regions Increase in temperatures will result in shifts of lower altitude tropical and subtropical forests to higher altitude temperate forest regions, resulting in the extinction of some temperate vegetation types. Decrease in rainfall and the resultant soil moisture stress could result in drier teak dominated forests replacing sal trees in central India. Increased dry spells could also place dry and moist deciduous forests at increased risk from forest fires (Ravindranath & Sukumar, 1996). The Western Ghats featuring a mixture of stunted evergreen forest and grass lands with sharp ecotones are a sensitive indicator of past climate change (Sukumar et al., 1993, 1995). The increase in temperature will reduce frost incidence, the montane forest turns in to grass lands, although with anthropogenic disturbances such as fires and conversion of grass lands into plantations of wattle and eucalyptus. The Central Indian forests are mostly moist deciduous and dry deciduous Vol. 4 issue 3 (March 2011) 195 ISSN: 0974- 6846 forests. Increased rainfall and soil moisture during the south west monsoon could potentially transform these to moister vegetation types. Sal forest characteristic of the moister belt could replace teak forest in the drier belt. The climate change scenario for northeast India is not very clear. There seems to be much greater variability in the various climatic parameters over even a small area. This region already experiences very heavy rainfall and any small changes in rain fall may not be of much consequence for vegetation. As per the news paper results the fresh floods claims 200 more lives in Punjab, Haryana, U.P., Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarath etc., It also swept away a lot of food grains cattles and damaged houses and rail, road and communication net works during this month Aug 2010. Human health Medical science suggests that the rise in temperature and change in humidity will adversely affect human health in India. Heat stress could result in heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heal stroke, and damage physiological functions, metabolic processes and immune systems. Increased temperatures can increase the range of vector borne diseases such as malaria, particularly in regions where minimum temperatures currently limited pathogen and vector development. In the case of Tahar region, construction of canals have created water logging problems, soil structure has changed with increased moisture retaining capacity. And a new vector, Anopheles culicifacies is increasing in this area, previously A. stephensi. A. culicifacies remains active throughout the year. Such environment increases incident of Malaria (Akhtar & McMichel, 1996). Tropical cyclones over the Indian seas For the North Indian Ocean as a whole, the number of cyclonic and severe cyclonic storms shows a distinct decadal variability. Long term linear trend (1891-2004) in frequency of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean as a whole, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea for different seasons, generally, shows a significant decreasing trend. There is sharp decrease in the frequency during the monsoon season. However, an increasing trend in the frequency of tropical cyclones forming over the Bay of Bengal in the months of May and November, the principal cyclone months, is observed. Cyclone frequency data for the last four decades (1961 onwards), since when significant monitoring tools like satellite are available, shows a significant decreasing trend for all the months and seasons and once again the maximum decrease was noticed in the monsoon season. The recent cloud bursting phenomenon over Ladak, Lahe regions, previous Kosi river floods present Yamuna floods, Punjab floods, etc, gives a warning of climate change to our Governments and it’s not too late to Plan strategic Proceedings of the “Global Environmental and its sustainability: Implications and Strategies” held at Chennai, India (7th Nov.2010) & Bangkok, Thailand (25th-29th Nov.2010) Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee) http://www.indjst.org Indian J.Sci.Technol. Indian Journal of Science and Technology Vol. 4 issue 3 (March 2011) 196 ISSN: 0974- 6846 planning in sustainable development based upon climatic changes. Conclusion Climate change is an emerging human security issue that threatens numerous communities. Due to floods, femine, watershed management, vector disease control, afforestation, cyclones, submering of low laying areas etc., The nature and extent of climatic changes not only hinders human development and environmental security, but also forms a major human security threat at national livelihood level, worlds’ most vulnerable groups. This may create inequities, vulnerabilities and insecurities. Now the planners should take note of the alarming climate change scenario of India and to avoid the disasters, it is proper to plan the startegies by the administrators to safe guard the weaker section of our community, for their sustainable development. References 1. Arivudai Nambi, A The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture. http://www.worldcolleges.info/articledownload/34 2. Akhtar,R and McMichel,A.J.,Lancet,1996,348,14571458. 3. Goudie, A., Environmental change, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1983, p.156. 4. Islands sinking in Sunderbans,The Telegraph,Calcutta,India. Monday, October 30, 2006 5. Mohesen M.Sherif,Vijay.P.Singh,.1999;Effect of climate change on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifiers, Hydrological Processes, 13,8, 1277-1287: 6. Matthews et al. (1994) The impact of climate change on Economy (http://coe.mse.ac.in/onerview/11) 7. Rais Akhtar, 2010 ElNino related health hazards in India, Current Science, Vol, 98, No.2. 8. Ravindranath.N.H and Sukumar.R., 1996 Impacts of climate change on forest cover in India, Commonwealth Forestry Review,75(1),. 9. Sukumar.R.,Suresh.H.S. and Ramesh.R. 1995, Climate change and its impact on tropical montane ecosystems in southern India.Journal of Biogeography 22:533-536. 10.Sukumar,R., Ramesh,R.,Pant,R.K., and Rajagopalan,G.1993. A d13C record of late Quaternary climate change from tropical peats in southern India,Nature 364:704-706. 11.UNICEF 2007, www.unicef.org/infobycountry/Nepal_ nepal_statics.html. Proceedings of the “Global Environmental and its sustainability: Implications and Strategies” held at Chennai, India (7th Nov.2010) & Bangkok, Thailand (25th-29th Nov.2010) Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee) http://www.indjst.org Indian J.Sci.Technol.