Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Disarming Postwar Societies State of the World Worldwatch Institute Promoting Disarmament Small arms Cycles of violence Impacts Production Trade Finance Control Disarmament Obstacles to Peace Why are weapons from past armed conflicts powerful obstacles to creating more secure and peaceful societies? Today, most conflicts are battles fought within rather than between countries. Small arms: fuel wars and political violence trigger crime waves facilitate personal violence aid extremists © IRIN Weapons of Choice Small conventional weapons are responsible for most of the killing during and after armed conflicts. These arms are lowtech, inexpensive, sturdy, easy-to-use by both military and civilians. © OSCE Changing Cost of Arms Weapon Prices in Kenya Source: AmnestyUSA A Global “Wild West” An estimated 300,000 people are killed by small arms each year in armed conflicts 200,000 are killed annually in gun-related violence 1.5 million are wounded Death Rates Latin America stands out globally with a high rate of firearm deaths compared to other regions. Colombia Venezuela Jamaica Brazil United States Germany 0 10 20 30 40 Gun Deaths/100,000 Source: Small Arms Survey 50 60 Cycles of Violence Dispersal of guns feed cycles of violence that in turn causes even greater demand for weapons. Political violence pits governments against insurgents Communal violence involves different ethnic, religious or other identity-based groups Criminal violence involves drug traffickers, organized crime or petty individual crime Climate of fear Beyond injury and death, how do arms create a climate of fear and lawlessness? Undermine political stability Disrupt economic activity Threaten development accomplishments © Irish Defence Forces © Sagar Shrestha/IRIN Political Stability Why do postwar societies often continue to experience tension and violence? Unresolved grievances Culture of violence Lack of economic opportunity Demobilized combatants with limited job skills may turn to banditry in order to survive Large stock of leftover weapons © IRIN Economic Activity How do small arms contribute to the decline and even collapse of economic activity? Civil wars, banditry and other forms of armed violence cause breakdowns of basic trust and confidence essential for trade and other transactions © Sven Torfinn/IRIN Unproductive Investment What happens when investment, foreign aid and domestic budgets are diverted to cope with crime and violence? South Africa’s 2000-01 police budget was 26% larger than the health budget Latin America’s public and private security expenses ate up 13-15% of the region’s combined GDP in mid-1990s—surpassing its welfare expenditures Food Security When violence causes farmers to abandon their harvests and animals what can happen to food security? Angola’s agricultural share of gross domestic product (GDP) fell from 23% in 1991 to 6% in 2000 Cattle rustling in eastern Africa is now more deadly due to influx of high-caliber weapons © IRIN Human Development What effect does violence have on social services such as health and education? Immunization and vaccination efforts curtailed in sub-Saharan Africa 30% of Jamaican girls say they are afraid to go to school because of firearmrelated crime © WHO © Naresh newar/IRIN Weapon Stocks Rough estimates of stockpiles of small arms in selected regions and countries. United States Latin America European Union Non-EU (incl. Russia) Sub-Saharan Africa India China Iraq 238-276 million 45-80 million 67 million 13-14 million 29 million 48 million 30 million 7-8 million Source: Small Arms Survey Weapon Production Global production: 7.5-8 million units/yr 7 million are civilian-type firearms Remainder are military-style weapons 10-14 billion rounds of ammunition produced per year—roughly 1 ½ -2 bullets per person on earth Trend reversal Military-style weapons increased in wake of Afghanistan and Iraq invasions and rearmament programs in US, Russia, China and parts of Europe Producers At least 1,249 companies produce arms in 92 countries US, Russia and China dominant producers 27 medium sized producer nations 15 in Europe 6 in Asia 3 in Middle East Plus Canada, Brazil and S.Africa 25 countries have illicit small scale production Export and Import Which countries are the largest exporters and which the leading importers? Exporters US, Italy, Belgium, Germany, Russia, Brazil and China Importers US, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Canada Legal and Illicit Trade Legal international arms trade = $4 billion/year Illicit trade (black market, theft, unauthorized transfer) = under $1 billion/year © Edward Parsons/IRIN Trade Networks What are other pathways for small arms trade? Secondhand arms dealing Surplus stock exports Capture of arms by insurgents Looting of police and military depots and arsenals Smuggling © Edward Parsons/IRIN Finance How do armed factions in developing countries finance purchases? Sale of commodities Direct barter of drugs or natural resources © Digital Vision Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Angola used revenues from diamonds, oil, timber, and wildlife products Afghan anti-soviet mujahideen and the Taliban supported by the opium trade © OSCE Finance Estimated Revenues From Conflict Resources Combatant Resource Period Est. Revenue UNITA (Angola) Diamonds 1992-2001 $4-4.2 billion total RUF (Sierra Leone) Diamonds 1990s $25-125 million/yr Rwanda govt. Coltan (from Congo) 1999-2000 $250 million total Taliban (Afghanistan) Opium, heroin Mid-1990-2001 $30-40 million/yr Khmer Rouge (Cambodia) Timber Mid-1990s $120-240 million/yr FARC (Colombia) Cocaine Late 1990s $140 million/yr Burma govt. Timber 1990s $112 million/yr Source: Arms Control Survey Controlling Proliferation What approaches are needed to limit proliferation? 1) Greater transparency 2) Tighter export controls 3) More cooperation among national customs agents Controlling Proliferation 4) Codes of conduct and embargos 5) Reduction in weapons in circulation Buyback programs and other collection methods Destruction of surplus stocks © IRIN © IRIN Small Arms Agreements Why have regional agreements had limited effectiveness? Politically but not legally binding and hard to enforce Focus is on illicit arms, ignoring state-sanctioned arms transfers No express requirements for exporting states to respect human rights or humanitarian law Arms Collection Issues Lack of reliable weapon inventories Timing and favorable conditions Destruction or dispersal Gun buy-back programs and payments Trading goods for guns Arms into Ploughshares UNDP “Weapons for Development” © Thomas Tolstrup © IRIN Destruction of Weapons Major Surplus Small Arms Destruction Efforts, 1990-2003 Country Time Period Number of Weapons Destroyed Germany 1990-2003 2.2 million China 1999-2001 1.3 million Russia 1998-2002 980,000 United States 1993-1996 830,000 Australia 1997-1998 644,000 South Africa 1998-2001 315,000 Source: Small Arms Survey Destruction of Weapons Biggest quantities of weapons destroyed have been surplus police and military holdings—8 million small arms since 1990 © OSCE Production still surpasses destruction by a factor of 10 © UN Photo by Martine Perret Combat to Civilian Life What are the challenges to demobilizing soldiers? Ensuring weapons are not dispersed to new conflicts Preventing ex-combatants from becoming criminals Reintegration is difficult because public infrastructures are destroyed Economic activity is disrupted National treasuries are depleted © IRIN Reintegration What are typical problems that former combatants face? Resentment Few employment opportunities Lack of education and skills Temptation to engage in criminal activities © UN/Martine Perret Child Soldiers More than 500,000 children (aged 15-18, but some far younger) have been recruited into armed groups in 85 countries worldwide 300,000 children are actively involved in fighting in 33 ongoing or recent conflicts © UN Child Soldiers What special needs do child soldiers face? Lack “normal” childhood, only know violence Family ravaged by war Lack literacy and skills Schools destroyed © IRIN © IRIN Afghanistan Afghans face the continuing instability of a post-conflict society Economic stagnation Unemployment Political factionalism Regional warlords Inadequate aid Stress from returning refugees © IRIN Factors for Success What does it take to make demobilization and reintegration work? Government capacity and political will Influence of outside actors Coordination among donor agencies, aid and development organizations Political cost-benefit perceptions among combatants, local communities, etc. Economic opportunities Special programs for child soldiers Development + Disarmament In the interest of human development disarmament needs to proceed In the interest of disarmament and security sustainable development is indispensable Corbis Photos Global Disarmament Progress in Global Disarmament, 1985-2002 Index 1985=100 120 110 Heavy Weapons 100 90 Armed Forces 80 70 Military Expenditures 60 50 40 Nuclear Warheads Arms Production Employment 30 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: NRDC, BICC Worldwatch Institute Further information and references for the material in this presentation are available in the Worldwatch Institute’s publication “State of the World 2005” This presentation is based on Chapter 7 “Disarming Postwar Societies” authored by: Michael Renner www.worldwatch.org