Download Disarming Postwar Societies

Disarming Postwar
Societies
State of the World
Worldwatch Institute
Promoting Disarmament
 Small arms
 Cycles of violence
 Impacts
 Production
 Trade
 Finance
 Control
 Disarmament
Obstacles to Peace
Why are weapons from past armed conflicts
powerful obstacles to creating more secure and
peaceful societies?
Today, most conflicts are battles
fought within rather than between
countries.
Small arms:
 fuel wars and political
violence
 trigger crime waves
 facilitate personal violence
 aid extremists
© IRIN
Weapons of Choice
Small conventional weapons are responsible for
most of the killing during and after armed
conflicts.
These arms are lowtech, inexpensive,
sturdy, easy-to-use
by both military and
civilians.
© OSCE
Changing Cost of Arms
Weapon Prices in Kenya
Source: AmnestyUSA
A Global “Wild West”
 An estimated 300,000 people
are killed by small arms each
year in armed conflicts
 200,000 are killed annually in
gun-related violence
 1.5 million are wounded
Death Rates
Latin America stands out globally with a high rate
of firearm deaths compared to other regions.
Colombia
Venezuela
Jamaica
Brazil
United States
Germany
0
10
20
30
40
Gun Deaths/100,000
Source: Small Arms Survey
50
60
Cycles of Violence
Dispersal of guns feed cycles of violence that
in turn causes even greater demand for
weapons.
 Political violence pits governments against
insurgents
 Communal violence involves different ethnic,
religious or other identity-based groups
 Criminal violence involves drug traffickers,
organized crime or petty individual crime
Climate of fear
Beyond injury and death, how do arms create
a climate of fear and lawlessness?
 Undermine political stability
 Disrupt economic activity
 Threaten development
accomplishments
© Irish Defence Forces
© Sagar Shrestha/IRIN
Political Stability
Why do postwar societies often continue to
experience tension and violence?

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Unresolved grievances
Culture of violence
Lack of economic opportunity
Demobilized combatants with
limited job skills may turn to
banditry in order to survive
 Large stock of leftover
weapons
© IRIN
Economic Activity
How do small arms contribute to the decline
and even collapse of economic activity?
Civil wars, banditry
and other forms of
armed violence
cause breakdowns of
basic trust and
confidence essential
for trade and other
transactions
© Sven Torfinn/IRIN
Unproductive Investment
What happens when investment, foreign aid
and domestic budgets are diverted to cope
with crime and violence?
 South Africa’s 2000-01 police budget was
26% larger than the health budget
 Latin America’s public and private security
expenses ate up 13-15% of the region’s
combined GDP in mid-1990s—surpassing
its welfare expenditures
Food Security
When violence causes farmers to abandon
their harvests and animals what can happen
to food security?
 Angola’s agricultural share of
gross domestic product (GDP)
fell from 23% in 1991 to 6% in
2000
 Cattle rustling in eastern Africa
is now more deadly due to influx
of high-caliber weapons
© IRIN
Human Development
What effect does violence have on social
services such as health and education?
 Immunization and
vaccination efforts curtailed
in sub-Saharan Africa
 30% of Jamaican girls say
they are afraid to go to
school because of firearmrelated crime
© WHO
© Naresh newar/IRIN
Weapon Stocks
Rough estimates of stockpiles of small arms in
selected regions and countries.
United States
Latin America
European Union
Non-EU (incl. Russia)
Sub-Saharan Africa
India
China
Iraq
238-276 million
45-80 million
67 million
13-14 million
29 million
48 million
30 million
7-8 million
Source: Small Arms Survey
Weapon Production
Global production: 7.5-8 million units/yr
 7 million are civilian-type firearms
 Remainder are military-style weapons
 10-14 billion rounds of ammunition
produced per year—roughly 1 ½ -2 bullets
per person on earth
Trend reversal
 Military-style weapons increased in wake of
Afghanistan and Iraq invasions and
rearmament programs in US, Russia, China
and parts of Europe
Producers
At least 1,249 companies produce arms in
92 countries
 US, Russia and China dominant producers
 27 medium sized producer nations




15 in Europe
6 in Asia
3 in Middle East
Plus Canada, Brazil and S.Africa
 25 countries have illicit small scale production
Export and Import
Which countries are the largest exporters
and which the leading importers?
Exporters
 US, Italy, Belgium, Germany, Russia,
Brazil and China
Importers
 US, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, Japan, South
Korea, Germany, Canada
Legal and Illicit Trade
 Legal international
arms trade
= $4 billion/year
 Illicit trade (black
market, theft,
unauthorized transfer)
= under $1 billion/year
© Edward Parsons/IRIN
Trade Networks
What are other pathways for small arms trade?

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Secondhand arms dealing
Surplus stock exports
Capture of arms by insurgents
Looting of police and military
depots and arsenals
 Smuggling
© Edward Parsons/IRIN
Finance
How do armed factions in developing countries
finance purchases?
 Sale of commodities
 Direct barter of drugs or
natural resources
© Digital Vision
 Liberia, Sierra Leone, and
Angola used revenues from
diamonds, oil, timber, and wildlife
products
 Afghan anti-soviet mujahideen
and the Taliban supported by the
opium trade
© OSCE
Finance
Estimated Revenues From Conflict Resources
Combatant
Resource
Period
Est. Revenue
UNITA (Angola)
Diamonds
1992-2001
$4-4.2 billion total
RUF (Sierra Leone)
Diamonds
1990s
$25-125 million/yr
Rwanda govt.
Coltan (from
Congo)
1999-2000
$250 million total
Taliban
(Afghanistan)
Opium,
heroin
Mid-1990-2001 $30-40 million/yr
Khmer Rouge
(Cambodia)
Timber
Mid-1990s
$120-240
million/yr
FARC (Colombia)
Cocaine
Late 1990s
$140 million/yr
Burma govt.
Timber
1990s
$112 million/yr
Source: Arms Control Survey
Controlling Proliferation
What approaches are needed to limit
proliferation?
1) Greater transparency
2) Tighter export controls
3) More cooperation among national
customs agents
Controlling Proliferation
4) Codes of conduct and embargos
5) Reduction in weapons in circulation
 Buyback programs and other collection methods
 Destruction of surplus stocks
© IRIN
© IRIN
Small Arms Agreements
Why have regional agreements had limited
effectiveness?
 Politically but not legally binding and hard to
enforce
 Focus is on illicit arms, ignoring state-sanctioned
arms transfers
 No express requirements for exporting states to
respect human rights or humanitarian law
Arms Collection Issues
 Lack of reliable weapon
inventories
 Timing and favorable conditions
 Destruction or dispersal
 Gun buy-back programs and
payments
 Trading goods for guns
 Arms into Ploughshares
 UNDP “Weapons for
Development”
© Thomas Tolstrup
© IRIN
Destruction of Weapons
Major Surplus Small Arms Destruction Efforts,
1990-2003
Country
Time Period Number of Weapons
Destroyed
Germany
1990-2003
2.2 million
China
1999-2001
1.3 million
Russia
1998-2002
980,000
United States
1993-1996
830,000
Australia
1997-1998
644,000
South Africa
1998-2001
315,000
Source: Small Arms Survey
Destruction of Weapons
 Biggest quantities of
weapons destroyed
have been surplus
police and military
holdings—8 million
small arms since 1990
© OSCE
 Production still
surpasses destruction
by a factor of 10
© UN Photo by Martine Perret
Combat to Civilian Life
What are the challenges to demobilizing
soldiers?
 Ensuring weapons are not
dispersed to new conflicts
 Preventing ex-combatants from
becoming criminals
 Reintegration is difficult
because public infrastructures
are destroyed
 Economic activity is disrupted
 National treasuries are
depleted
© IRIN
Reintegration
What are typical problems that former
combatants face?
 Resentment
 Few employment
opportunities
 Lack of education and
skills
 Temptation to engage
in criminal activities
© UN/Martine Perret
Child Soldiers
 More than 500,000 children
(aged 15-18, but some far
younger) have been recruited
into armed groups in 85
countries worldwide
 300,000 children are actively
involved in fighting in 33
ongoing or recent conflicts
© UN
Child Soldiers
What special needs do child soldiers face?
 Lack “normal” childhood, only
know violence
 Family ravaged by war
 Lack literacy and skills
 Schools destroyed
© IRIN
© IRIN
Afghanistan
Afghans face the continuing instability of a
post-conflict society
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Economic stagnation
Unemployment
Political factionalism
Regional warlords
Inadequate aid
Stress from returning
refugees
© IRIN
Factors for Success
What does it take to make demobilization
and reintegration work?
 Government capacity and political will
 Influence of outside actors
 Coordination among donor agencies, aid and
development organizations
 Political cost-benefit perceptions among
combatants, local communities, etc.
 Economic opportunities
 Special programs for child soldiers
Development + Disarmament
In the interest of human
development disarmament
needs to proceed
In the interest of disarmament
and security sustainable
development is indispensable
Corbis Photos
Global Disarmament
Progress in Global Disarmament, 1985-2002
Index 1985=100
120
110
Heavy Weapons
100
90
Armed Forces
80
70
Military Expenditures
60
50
40
Nuclear Warheads
Arms Production
Employment
30
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: NRDC, BICC
Worldwatch Institute
Further information and
references for the material in this
presentation are available in the
Worldwatch Institute’s publication
“State of the World 2005”
This presentation is based on
Chapter 7 “Disarming Postwar
Societies” authored by:
Michael Renner
www.worldwatch.org